Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[Patrick]

ksen, result?

Based on boberz's posts I would guess he protected (and likely stopped a kill on) Ether night 2. I think ksen is scum with one of the other two. If ksen is town then the scumgroup must be Zorblag/McGriddle, which clashes with my read of Ether. I'll be back with more when I have the time.

[ksen]

ksen, result?

I was blocked.

[Yankee]

Vote: Ksen

I think it is pretty obvious that Ksen is scum....

[Zorblag]

I'm going to need to take some time to look through the game again now that we've got the additional information that boberz was the doctor. I should have a chance to sort through the information and get my thoughts on the current state of the game out there by tomorrow. For now here are some preliminaries.

For the record, I don't like what boberz did day three at all there. Had scum made a fake doctor claim after boberz had claimed vanilla townie I almost certainly would have lynched boberz. It is pretty clear in hindsight that he was trying to get someone to make a fake claim like that but at the time it really just looked like a lot of unnecessary role fishing. Lying about your role like he did is, in my experience, much more likely to end up hurting your team then it is to catch scum in the sort of trap that he was setting. Fortunately it didn't come back to bite us this time around and I'm sure that we'll talk about what he was doing post game but for now I want it to be clear that I consider it to have been a poor move.

The reason that's somewhat relevant now is that I'm not sure that it's as clear as Patrick seems to think it is that boberz protected Ether on night two. Looking over what he said I think that there's about as good a chance that he protected Yankee instead. I'd be interested in hearing who everyone else thinks was the likely night protection and why (along with any implications on the game now they think that it might have.)

@Ksen, who did you investigate and why? Why not say who it was you investigated when you said you were blocked?

@Yankee, could you explain again why it is that it's so clear to you that Ksen is fake claiming cop? So far as I could tell by reading your posts there was a big transition when you realized that if he was scum in a two goon team that got a kill blocked by a doctor he would have known that a cop claim was a safe one to make. Was that the reason that you switched from being uninterested in lynching hm unless he was counter claimed to being ready to lynch him as of yesterday and being ready to go right from the get go today as well?

@Patrick, why do you think that boberz protected Ether rather than Yankee?

@McGriddle, mostly I'll be interested in hearing your thoughts on the game as a whole for now. Why is it that you think the no lynch sucked in particular though?

If anyone has any questions to ask me do feel free.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[McGriddle]

I'm going to need to take some time to look through the game again now that we've got the additional information that boberz was the doctor. I should have a chance to sort through the information and get my thoughts on the current state of the game out there by tomorrow. For now here are some preliminaries.

For the record, I don't like what boberz did day three at all there. Had scum made a fake doctor claim after boberz had claimed vanilla townie I almost certainly would have lynched boberz. It is pretty clear in hindsight that he was trying to get someone to make a fake claim like that but at the time it really just looked like a lot of unnecessary role fishing. Lying about your role like he did is, in my experience, much more likely to end up hurting your team then it is to catch scum in the sort of trap that he was setting. Fortunately it didn't come back to bite us this time around and I'm sure that we'll talk about what he was doing post game but for now I want it to be clear that I consider it to have been a poor move.

The reason that's somewhat relevant now is that I'm not sure that it's as clear as Patrick seems to think it is that boberz protected Ether on night two. Looking over what he said I think that there's about as good a chance that he protected Yankee instead. I'd be interested in hearing who everyone else thinks was the likely night protection and why (along with any implications on the game now they think that it might have.)

@Ksen, who did you investigate and why? Why not say who it was you investigated when you said you were blocked?

@Yankee, could you explain again why it is that it's so clear to you that Ksen is fake claiming cop? So far as I could tell by reading your posts there was a big transition when you realized that if he was scum in a two goon team that got a kill blocked by a doctor he would have known that a cop claim was a safe one to make. Was that the reason that you switched from being uninterested in lynching hm unless he was counter claimed to being ready to lynch him as of yesterday and being ready to go right from the get go today as well?

@Patrick, why do you think that boberz protected Ether rather than Yankee?

@McGriddle, mostly I'll be interested in hearing your thoughts on the game as a whole for now. Why is it that you think the no lynch sucked in particular though?

If anyone has any questions to ask me do feel free.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Well, I am a little fuzzy, as I skimmed over a lot of information and it's been a few days since i posted anything on here (sorry) but I didn't mean it was a bad idea, all I meant was that the doctor is dead now and that sucks. I should have said that night action sucks for town.

[Yankee]

on break, about to leave. Just posting saying i will reply to your questions when I get back, and i have a valid reason.

[Patrick]

boberz made no secret of the fact that he thought Ether's role slot was a cop. He even went as far as to claim the role on her behalf. The question is whether he thought that on day 2, and I think he did. He referenced himself hinting at it on day 2 and his reason for thinking Ether was a cop:

The reason I think this is because she said she was PROBABLY going to go in hard on yankee on day 2, she then subtly eliminated him from her reads, ie suggested that it wasnt yankee and tyrope, reason giving they were bickering (they werent bickering much really) nobody seemed to check this other than me.

Is something that happened on day 2. I guess it is possible that this suddenly occurred to him day 3 only, but reading his posts, I don't think so. I would certainly expect a doctor to protect someone who they thought was a cop in a newbie game. Zorblag, do you feel boberz wasn't reading Ether as a cop day 2 / night 2, or do you think he might have chosen to protect someone other than a suspected cop? I think it's much less likely Yankee was protected. I also think it less likely scum would try to kill a protown Yankee.

Zorblag, what's your opinion on ksen's claim?

[ksen]

@Ksen, who did you investigate and why? Why not say who it was you investigated when you said you were blocked?

I put in a view of you because Annachie was one of my top suspects going into last night.

I just answered the question asked because just as I was reading the thread this morning by boss came in needing me to work on an urgent project so I didn't have much time to elaborate.

In fact this is the first chance I've really had to look back in.

[Yankee]

Back, and Reading through what Patrick just wrote, it makes me even more confident in my decision to vote ksen. For one, ksen's having me in the middle of his scummy list before his claim, and then his bogus explanation is still my main reason. But what Patrick said is true as well, Ether said she was going to push hard on me and then didnt, at all. I am curious though if Ether/Mcgriddle really is the cop, if Mcgriddle would get the results of Ether's investigations. I do think it unlikely now that i think about it that I think about it again that Mcgriddle/Ether is a cop because Mcgriddle would have CC'ed ksens claim by now. In this case, if we have no cop then the scum would know that we have no cop and would know it would be safe to claim cop. Plus the fact that there is still no more votes on ksen even when it only takes 3 to lynch and we are in Lylo. The scum would be all over Ksen's "wagon" if he was a cop....

[McGriddle]

Okay, so basically the person previous to me claimed cop? Is that right? and he was supposed to investigate a specific somebody? is that the situation at hand? if so I have a bold prediction, or fact really.

[ksen]

Okay, so basically the person previous to me claimed cop? Is that right?

No, that is not right. The speculation right now is that boberz was convinced that Ether/evilgorrilaz/you was the cop. No one has claimed cop except for me.

and he was supposed to investigate a specific somebody? is that the situation at hand? if so I have a bold prediction, or fact really.

No, that's not the situation at hand. No one suggested a name for me to investigate.

[Zorblag]

@McGriddle, please do make your bold prediction (or sharing of fact.) I can pretty much promise that we won't hold any contradiction between what you say now and what your predecessors said in terms of a claim against you.

@Patrick, either Ksen is scum or we should already have lost at this point so I'm going with the pragmatic route and assuming that he's scum. What I'm trying to figure out now is whether there's any reasonable chance that Yankee is his partner. My recollection is that when I was reading through the game my first guess for scum was Yankee for a good part of it, but given Ksen's claim that can only be true if Ksen and Yankee are scum together.

For boberz and his protection I'm trying to figure out why it is exactly that he had Yankee so low on his list of suspects. He consistently puts Ether in his potential (but unlikely) while Yankee doesn't make the lists at all. When he makes the cop claim for Ether he does it with an innocent on Yankee in particular. Here was his list of suspicions after Ksen's claim:

So my list before the ether claims, probability (of being scum) analysis:
dont look good for you ksen, but i wouldnt worry, the ether claim will probably help you out.

Yankee - 9.43
Patrick - 49.03
Ether - 24.51
Annachie - 49.03
ksen - 66%
boberz - 0%

If no one else speaks ever again i favour a no-lynch.

I know that he's aware of the possibility of the scum intentionally no killing as he mentioned it a couple times but for him to put Ether at a 24.51% (and yes, I realize that that sort of accuracy is just silly when assessing this sort of thing but it was his call) means that if he had protected Ether he must have thought that there was about a 1 in 4 chance that not only did the scum do that but that he also happened to protect scum.

It seems at least as likely that he saw the interactions between Ether and Yankee on day two and either thought that it was a better idea to protect who he thought the cop's target was going to be to ensure a read (if he thought that Ether would be safe) or was worried that Ether might be scum who would be trying to kill Yankee during the night. He could also have thought that scum were on to the Ether as a cop theory as well and was trying to stay one step ahead because he thought they would expect doctor protection on a likely cop. And I could get further into my crazy speculation here but it doesn't help. What it boils down to is that his stated suspicions over the course of day three all tend to match up better with a protected Yankee than a protected Ether by my reading.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

EBWOP: I see that Ksen posted while I was getting this tidied up in a vaguely unfortunate way. Ah well.

[McGriddle]

@McGriddle, please do make your bold prediction (or sharing of fact.) I can pretty much promise that we won't hold any contradiction between what you say now and what your predecessors said in terms of a claim against you..

oh well then nevermind lol. MY prediction wouldn't make any sense at all this way lol.

[McGriddle]

Vote: Ksen

I think it is pretty obvious that Ksen is scum....

I think the fact that Ksen has a vote on him and isn't dead means he is our scum, or Yankee is and his scum buddy is waiting for one more vote to hammer and win. So my 2 top suspects are Ksen and Yankee. But I just can't figure out which one of them it is.

[Patrick]

I think the fact that Ksen has a vote on him and isn't dead means he is our scum, or Yankee is and his scum buddy is waiting for one more vote to hammer and win. So my 2 top suspects are Ksen and Yankee. But I just can't figure out which one of them it is.

Have you read the whole game? Ksen has claimed cop with an innocent result on Yankee, so there's no chance that Yankee could be scum hoping to quicklynch town-ksen.

@Zorblag, boberz's reasons for having Yankee low on his list seem to be based on the likely belief that Ether was a cop with an innocent on him. The percentage list you quoted came after ksen had claimed cop himself. If boberz was expecting Ether to claim cop with an innocent on Yankee as well, his percentage for Yankee seems to me to make perfect sense. I agree his percentage for Ether looks a little high, but as I said yesterday I think he was being unreasonably paranoid about the possibility of scum no-killing, something which he said was common, but in my experience isn't in newbie games. I find it less likely that scum would try to kill Yankee night 2 or that boberz would expect anything of the kind; scum tend to go after experienced players and players who are generally seen as town, neither of which fitted for Yankee.

[Yankee]

I am not really sure why he had me so low on his list, and just assumed I was town, so it does seem like a strong possibility that he protected me the night of the no lynch. But, my thought would be that it would be much more logical for him to protect Ether, who he thought would be a cop. I honestly dont know, but can we at least agree that he protected one of the two of us? I kind of find it pointless to try to figure out which one at the moment when there really is no accurate way of telling unless we go back and somehow manage to find a hidden breadcrumb. And Zorblag, the rest of your post seems like just a bunch of WIFOM and I dont like it. Please refrain from using WIFOM theories in the future.

[Zorblag]

@McGriddle, a couple things. First off I'd love to have you do me a favor and share what your prediction was going to be anyhow. I've got an idea what you had in mind and I'd like to see if I had it right. It helps verify how accurate a read I've got on you in general.

Second, losing boberz as the doctor to a night kill was probably a moderately good thing rather than a negative one. Sure we don't have any chance of having the doctor protect anyone from here on out but at least now we're not stuck with either a late claim from boberz that contradicts an earlier claim he made or working on the assumption that scum made no attempt to kill on night two either intentionally or because they forgot to submit it. It's still possible that the scum didn't submit a kill night two but it's more likely that boberz's protection was actually successful.

Third, as Patrick implied it's going to be much better if you fully caught up with the game. Everyone at this point should know that Yankee isn't scum trying to get town Ksen lynched. I know that you've just joined the game, I'm in the same position myself really. That doesn't excuse us from being aware of the situation as our votes do just as much to win or lose this thing as anyone else's.

@Patrick, one problem that I have with the boberz successfully protected Ether argument is that I don't see why boberz should be assuming that Ether got an innocent on Yankee. I can see what you're saying about wanting to protect someone he thought was a cop and I can see why he thought that Ether would investigate Yankee in particular but why would he think that the result would be an innocent? From the first posts in day three we were getting the following from boberz:

Essentially I am now choosing between: Patrick, ksen, annachie and we need to get two of them.

He says a couple times that he thinks he knows what's going on so it would seem that he already had his theory fully developed by the time the day started. If he didn't protect Yankee and then not see the kill go through then I'm not seeing anything that's changed that should lead him to think that there would be an innocent result from an Ether investigation of Yankee. On the other hand, he did go out of day two with a decent town read on Yankee which would make him a reasonable choice for protection as opposed to Ether who he spent a fair amount of time complaining wasn't about.

The more I look the more likely I think it is that he really did protect the player that he thought looked town at the time in Yankee rather than Ether who he noticed had an off relationship towards that player (saying she was going to press and then backing off of if I'm reading his take correctly.) Given that Ether is experienced he probably had reason to assume that she wouldn't telegraph her night kills if she was scum; that would leave the cop reason for her to be interacting how she was as something for him to fully fit together after he had the results of the night to work with.

I'm not particularly convinced by the scum in newbie games tend to kill the more experienced player argument in this case. For one thing if I can rule out Yankee as a suspect here then it would be either you or Ether as the other scum. If there is experience on the scum team (or at least was when the kill was made) that tendency should be damped some to avoid the inevitable question of why is one experienced player in particular still alive when the others have been eliminated. Even if don't explore the game shape in that way we'd already had an experienced player killed night one in Incognito. Expecting the scum to make the same sorts of night kills twice in a row just because individual kills tend to happen in some way in newbie games isn't very compelling.

We can also take a look at Ksen's cop claim. Given that he pretty much has to be scum at this point he's faking a claim. The safest move to make if there was a doctor protection is to claim that he got a town investigation result on the person that he knew that the doctor would be able to semi-confirm anyhow.

@Yankee, I'm going to assume that what you're complaining about in terms of the WIFOM from my last post has to do with where I was talking about the motives that boberz would have had to protect you rather than Ether. I was simply trying to show some possibilities there. I don't know what boberz had in mind when he made his protection choice night two. None of us do. What we can do is take a look at what happened before and after and try to make our best guess about what his actions were. That was the point that I tried to get across with my last sentence.

Knowing what boberz was up to is also a more important point in this situation than I think you're giving it credit for. If he did protect you then he probably blocked a kill on you and that's the biggest argument that I can see against your being scum at this point. The turn around in your opinion about Ksen and his claim is too abrupt and complete for me to be comfortable with it and in general I think that you've played a fairly attackable game. If we think that boberz protected Ether on night two then you've got a very real possibility of being the lynch tomorrow (certainly you'd be a candidate if you're still alive then) whereas I think that's no longer the case if you we believe that you were protected.

Of biggest concern along those lines for me is actually Patrick. Given that I do now think that the evidence points more towards a Yankee protection than an Ether protection I think that you're the least likely partner for Ksen. That leaves me with Patrick and McGriddle with suspects. McGriddle's going to be a harder read given Ether's disappearing act but I will be going back to see what there is there soon. Patrick is and has been around though, and I can see what he's been doing. He's already invested some time and energy into a town read on Ether. It would be easier for him, were he scum, to justify pushing a lynch on you at this point than it would be for him to justify pushing a lynch on Ether (well, now McGriddle, I suppose.) If we simply go with his initial Ether was the protection target without examining it then we're potentially playing right into the endgame that scum are looking for.

That's not to say that I'm convinced that Patrick is scum at this point. I've still got to sort a few things out and that's going to mean finding the time to read through a number of players in isolation fairly carefully. He is however my current top guess and so I'd rather not give him more free room to maneuver our assumptions than I need to.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[starkmoon]

Yankee
Zorblag
ksen 1 Yankee
McGriddle
Patrick


Zorblag
ksen
McGriddle
Patrick

[Patrick]

@Patrick, one problem that I have with the boberz successfully protected Ether argument is that I don't see why boberz should be assuming that Ether got an innocent on Yankee. I can see what you're saying about wanting to protect someone he thought was a cop and I can see why he thought that Ether would investigate Yankee in particular but why would he think that the result would be an innocent?

I'm very confused here. boberz's theory was that Ether was a cop who investigated Yankee innocent on

night 1

. The phrasing of your comments seems like you think we're talking about night 2. It's very clear why boberz thought Ether had an innocent on Yankee night 1; she backed off him day 2 and indeed defended him without any critisism, even though she was suspicious of him day 1. If she'd got a guilty result on night 1 she would obviously have pushed his lynch hard, not defended him. Can you clarify?

I disagree about IC's and my experience of newbie games is that they get nightkilled more often. I think it's because on the whole they tend to be harder for scum to lynch and they tend to scumhunt better than newbies, and I would still be surprised if scum attempted a kill on Yankee night 2 (though I agree if it wasn't Ether it's probably Yankee).

Patrick is and has been around though, and I can see what he's been doing. He's already invested some time and energy into a town read on Ether. It would be easier for him, were he scum, to justify pushing a lynch on you at this point than it would be for him to justify pushing a lynch on Ether (well, now McGriddle, I suppose.) If we simply go with his initial Ether was the protection target without examining it then we're potentially playing right into the endgame that scum are looking for.

I've read Ether as town all game, though it's nice to have it painted as a crafty ploy. I'm not suggesting the idea that Ether was protected should go unexamined, but it seems pretty obviously the most likely possibility and I'm surprised to see so much support for the idea that boberz protected someone else. Clearly we interpret his relationship with Ether differently; I saw him as reading Ether as town on day 2 despite her lurking, and moreso than his read on Yankee. He even stated on day 2 that he thought Yankee wouldn't be a likely kill for the exact reasons I've outlined.

I'll also be looking back in more depth when I have time and the site moves faster than smail pace.

[Yankee]

Ugh, all this WIFOM makes my head hurt.... There is no way to tell who Boberz protected.... but I am under the impression at the moment that it was Me even though it would have been more logical for him to protect Ether. I only say this because of how relaxed he seemed to be towards me. Not once did he ever accuse me of doing anything suspicious after the successful Protection. He even had me on the lowest spot on his list of scummy people. I am just reading the breadcrumbs here. We may not know why he did it, but we have to look for any clues he may have left. Or we could all be wrong and he could have protected someone else. But i think it is a 95% chance that he either protected me or Ether. So say we eliminate us two from the list of suspects at the moment and assume there is at least one scum in the group remaining.

Zorblag
Ksen
Patrick

Of those all, Ksen has been the most suspicious, and even claimed when he really didnt need to (if i remember correctly). Why would a cop claim without being virtually forced (again, correct me if I am wrong). The only explanation would be that it is a scum that knows that there is no cop, who wants protection for the day (which worked) and would also cause chaos in the town. Also, notice how there is not a single other vote on ksen yet? By now at least ONE other scum would have voted him if he were truely the cop.... Also the fact that he wasnt NK'ed

[McGriddle]

@McGriddle, a couple things. First off I'd love to have you do me a favor and share what your prediction was going to be anyhow. I've got an idea what you had in mind and I'd like to see if I had it right. It helps verify how accurate a read I've got on you in general.

Well, I don't really remember what that was but, I am thinking that my predecessor claiming cop, and ksen CCing it was correct. If my predecessor lied as a gambit then I could see ksen as being the real cop and I am not worried about ksen as much as previously thought. But my predecessor never claimed cop so it doesn't make much since. I am a townie, not a cop. I believe either ksen is a goon and we are in the goon + goon setup and ksen is scum claiming cop because nobody else really knows the setup we are in, or Yankee knows we are in the RB + goon setup and is trying to kill the cop. He has 1 vote on ksen so if another vote occurs a hammer from scum wins the game so IDK about the 'he only has 1 vote on him and hasn't been hammered' tell.

[Yankee]

I see your point there Mcgriddle and I see that you have valid reasons for that to be a possibility but if you remember correctly, if ksen is the true cop then I cant be a goon because he cleared me. Therefore I have no way to know if there is a RB or a cop, meaning that there are no scum on the "cops" wagon and both scum could hammer at any time, yet havent.

[McGriddle]

I see your point there Mcgriddle and I see that you have valid reasons for that to be a possibility but if you remember correctly, if ksen is the true cop then I cant be a goon because he cleared me. Therefore I have no way to know if there is a RB or a cop, meaning that there are no scum on the "cops" wagon and both scum could hammer at any time, yet havent.

Yes, I do know that, the scenario was either you are townie and don't really know for sure what ksen is, which means he could be cop or goon, or you (or a scum buddy) could be a RB and know that he really is cop and are trying to get him lynched because of that. Maybe I am confused by what you are saying lol

[Yankee]

your second scenario cant happen. When ksen claimed cop, he also said that he investigated me and found me innocent. Therefore if i were a scum, then ksen couldnt really be the cop, which wouldnt make sense for a townie to claim cop if they are not. Also, if Ksen were cop, i could not be scum. See what I am saying?

[McGriddle]

your second scenario cant happen. When ksen claimed cop, he also said that he investigated me and found me innocent. Therefore if i were a scum, then ksen couldnt really be the cop, which wouldnt make sense for a townie to claim cop if they are not. Also, if Ksen were cop, i could not be scum. See what I am saying?

Ah I see now. So Ksen is the best possible candidate for a lynch then based off of basic knowledge.