Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[Zorblag]

I should also probably say that I am glad that you're coming up with reasons that you think people are guilty now. It's an improvement to earlier when you didn't have anything other than thinking that Ksen was scum. The game is best when everyone is trying to figure out what's going on rather than just following what others say (for one thing you've got to figure out who is safe to follow and who's scum trying to lead you to the wrong conclusions.) I don't at all need you to buy my suspicions or anyone else's. I do want you to have sound reasons for having the suspicions that you have.

It's probably worth saying once more that this involves making sure that you've looked over what's happened throughout the game if you haven't.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[McGriddle]

Both of those instances came after your vote for Ksen though. Once that was cast and both Patrick and I had posted without hammering there became no question at all that Ksen had to be scum (it was very clear before that but at that point scum would have won with a hammer.) Yankee trying to change his vote at that point would have been a clear indication that he was scum; hence as scum he couldn't afford to do it.

I'm pretty sure that other than the first bit telling you that he's not a cop Yankee's post 855 is addressed to me for what it's worth.

I think that you've very much over-simplified what's going on in the game. If either Patrick or I were scum it would be suicidal for us to try to get someone other than Ksen lynched at this point. Despite what Yankee seems to be saying about me I don't think that there's any evidence at all in the game that either of us have tried to do that. The whole thing that makes mafia an interesting game is that the scum do need to play against what might look like their easiest path to victory from time to time or it's obvious that they're scum. If their behavior was as simple to predict as you're making it out to be then it would be a relatively shallow game that didn't take any particular skill.

In this particular game I think it was a very good bet as of around the time that he made his cop claim and didn't get believed by anyone in the game that Ksen was going to be the next lynch that happened. If scum tried to fight against it from any point from there on they'd likely be tipping their hand as scum. They should be much safer trying to blend in and be part of crowd who are somewhere between willing and eager to get Ksen lynched. Scum only need one mislynch in the next two; it's much better for them to fight for the one that's not obvious then it is to try to get a townie lynched before Ksen.

I don't know where you got the idea that I'm planning to be the one that hammers Ksen today. I'd say that I have around a 50-50 chance of doing it. It shouldn't matter whether it's Patrick or I that does it at this point; we all know that Ksen is scum so all that we're doing now is making sure that the town is on the same page. If your analysis did fit the way the game was played then it would be to the scum's advantage to hammer right now to look better and then get whoever had stayed off the wagon lynched tomorrow. Of course if that was the case then the person who didn't hammer could argue that was the clear best move for the scum to make. This is the sort of situation that leads to WIFOM which Yankee's so fond of bringing up. It turns out that the end result is that for this situation where the lynch is a foregone conclusion the person who does the hammering here becomes a null tell.

Other than his vote for Ksen being there all day thus far do you have any reasons that you think that Yankee is probably town at this point? Have you looked at the post I made about him? Did any of my arguments strike you as particularly true or contrived?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Hmm, you are certainly right about me over-simplifying, that's the problem I have in this game, I assume people will make the most logical path in this game rather than a strategical one. So now I am back to square one. I know ksen is scum, I don't know about you and Yankee, but I still do feel that Patrick is his buddy. I have to be honest with you, I didn't read everything you had written about Yankee in your wall, but I just did and might I say that you might be on to something. I didn't believe Yankee could be scum but the possibility is actually (strategically) there. Who knows, maybe Yankee and ksen decided during the night that Yankee would bus ksen in the hopes that Yankee could look more town. I am not sure of anything at this point except that ksen is scum. I guess my order of suspects would have to be Patrick, Yankee, and You now.

[Zorblag]

@McGriddle, at this point what I'd love to have you do is read over what happened in day three and come back and give your reactions just to that. I don't care if you do it thinking that you know who's most likely the scum ahead of time or if you do it with the mindset that anyone still alive could be Ksen's partner. It's that previous play that we build on to figure out what the actions today indicate in terms of scumminess. If we could only use what we've got going on the past couple pages this would be a much more difficult game for town (and it's already a tough one.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[McGriddle]

@McGriddle, at this point what I'd love to have you do is read over what happened in day three and come back and give your reactions just to that. I don't care if you do it thinking that you know who's most likely the scum ahead of time or if you do it with the mindset that anyone still alive could be Ksen's partner. It's that previous play that we build on to figure out what the actions today indicate in terms of scumminess. If we could only use what we've got going on the past couple pages this would be a much more difficult game for town (and it's already a tough one.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

okay i will, i will get back in some time.

[Zorblag]

And actually, if McGriddle is ready to go back and take a look over things I've no longer got a major reason to hold up the day. I'm happy to hear what he has to say today if he wants to say it now (i.e. be sure he says it before a potential night kill) and I'm happy to hear it tomorrow if he'd prefer. Unless he says he'd rather do it before we lynch Ksen I'm fine with hammering or having Patrick hammer at any point now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[McGriddle]

And actually, if McGriddle is ready to go back and take a look over things I've no longer got a major reason to hold up the day. I'm happy to hear what he has to say today if he wants to say it now (i.e. be sure he says it before a potential night kill) and I'm happy to hear it tomorrow if he'd prefer. Unless he says he'd rather do it before we lynch Ksen I'm fine with hammering or having Patrick hammer at any point now.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

Yeah that may be better, that way I have 3 days to read it over and make some notes about it.

[Patrick]

McGriddle, I explained in my last post that I thought there was still something productive to be said, which was why I didn't lynch ksen straight away. I'm not sure why you thought I was putting pressure on you or trying to call for unvotes of ksen, since I stated that ksen is confirmed scum and I think you're the nearest thing we have to a confirmed innocent.

These recent posts have allayed a fear I had. I'm happy to kill ksen now.

Vote: ksen

[Yankee]

Well who in your opinion is ksen scum partner? Incase you are killed tonight that information will be valuable in the future. Right now I am leaning towards Zorblag.

[starkmoon]

Yankee
Zorblag 1 ksen,
ksen 1 Yankee, McGriddle, PatricK (lynch)
McGriddle
Patrick


Zorblag

Ksen (goon) is lynched!

Night 4 please get your night choices to me by Minday (midday GMT)

[starkmoon]

Day 5!

McGriddle (townie) is dead.

With 3 alive it is now 2 to lynch.

Yankee
Zorblag
Patrick

[Yankee]

ugh, last time I was in this situation it was very stressful.... I really have no idea which out of patrick and Zorblag would be scum, but right now I have more points on Patrick just because he is an SE, one of the most active players, and most helpful to the town, yet somehow managed to stay alive until today.....

[Patrick]

I didn't see myself as a particularly likely kill. I thought if you're scum you probably wouldn't kill me and if Zorblag is scum then a kill on me was a possibility but hardly a standout one. I'd like you to explain why you think I should have been killed last night, particularly when McGriddle was virtually confirmed innocent.

I'd also like to rewind to these posts from you on day 2: Post 488, Post 490, Post 494. This was the exchange between us where you thought I was attacking you because Incognito got nightkilled. The general feeling I'm getting from these posts is that you don't think nightkill discussions are useful because they descend into WIFOM. Was that point of view genuine? If so then it bothers me how you immediately open today casting suspicion on me because I haven't been nightkilled.

[Zorblag]

@Yankee, I've got two quick questions for now. At the end of yesterday you said your first guess at scum was me. You've spent most of the game suspicious of Annachie and me in this spot for various reasons. Why is it that Patrick has more points (as scum) now just for being alive and having played the most helpful game to the town?

Also, what did you think of McGriddle at the end of the day yesterday?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

Well you are right, I do not think it is wise to speculate on NK's, but I believe it is different when it is Lylo and we have to use all the information we can. And I am certain that Mcgriddle was much more scummy then you, but less scummy then Zorblag yesterday. Also the fact that you seem more defensive and at the same time more aggressive then Zorblag gives you scum points in my book. Hope that also answers your questions Zorblag

[Zorblag]

@Yankee, yesterday you said at some point that you were tired and wanted to continue a discussion we were having later. I wonder if you could go back and find the spots where you thought that I was ignoring your logic in a round-about way of defending Ksen.

@Patrick, how sophisticated and aware a player do you think that Yankee is? Do you think that he was sincere when he mixed up the number of people needed to lynch back on Day Three?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Patrick, also, what was it that you were reassured by (i.e. what fear was allayed) during the final conversations of the day yesterday?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Patrick]

@Patrick, how sophisticated and aware a player do you think that Yankee is? Do you think that he was sincere when he mixed up the number of people needed to lynch back on Day Three?

So so. He sometimes seems to skim what people are saying, and overuses the term WIFOM. As for forgetting the number needed to lynch, I'm torn, since on the one hand I can't see any great benefit to scum faking it, but on the other hand if he really thought so I might have expected him to express more concern about a player placing a single vote on another player.

A couple more questions for Yankee.

If you felt that McGriddle had some chance of being scum, why not argue against me and Zorblag thinking that the chance of it was incredibly low? You went fairly quiet on the debate about boberz protection after Zorblag agreed with me.

Why do you feel being defensive and aggressive is scummy?

Zorblag: Yesterday McGriddle's posting towards the end of the day about me was worrying because I felt that scum might choose to keep him alive with me in the hope he'd just vote me in the endgame. That fear went away after your exchange with him because he seemed like he was being more reasonable and seemed to be coming round to the possibility of Yankee being scum, instead of just coming out with meaningless stuff like, "I think Yankee is a cop lolz". At this point I'm still leaning towards Yankee being scum, and the main thing giving me slight pause is that if he is I think an endgame with me and McGriddle would have offered him slightly better chances. I think I could probably have persuaded McGriddle to see reason if that happened, which was why I was ok with the day ending, but people are hard to predict. If you're scum then going to an endgame with me and McGriddle would have put me in a difficult situation, but then again if you're scum the situation is difficult anyway because I'm leaning Yankee.

[Zorblag]

@Patrick, yeah, I largely agree with that assessment of Patrick and the part about the conversation I had with McGriddle is exactly what I thought it should be (which is why I wanted to have that conversation before ending the day.)

Here's the trouble that I've got now. If we assume a decent (but not exceptional) level of sophistication and awareness from Yankee if he's scum then the McGriddle kill seems fairly unlikely to have come from him. I intentionally ended the day yesterday trying to be as big a threat to him as I could. Everything that I listed as issues with his play are troubling to me do in fact trouble me but I tried to make it sound like after Ksen got lynched yesterday I'd be ready to jump on the Yankee wagon right away today when in practice I knew I was going to stop and go back over things if I was still alive. Really I was playing for the night kill from Yankee if he was scum as much as anything else. You were fairly consistent with your opinions yesterday and I think that your listing Yankee as the one you're leaning towards as scum now should have been the obvious way for someone to think you'd start today (given that it's what you were saying yesterday.)

McGriddle on the other hand didn't end the day with Yankee as his top suspect. He was largely up in the air. Of the three of us, he's the one that Yankee, if he's scum, should on the surface have most wanted to keep around. There are a couple obvious reasons he could have gone another way with his kill.

Maybe he didn't have a read on where people were in the game (which is tough to buy, especially in my case.) Maybe he was sophisticated enough to think that he could get one of the two of us to follow the sort of reasoning that I'm doing here and that you're hinting at in the end of your last post (and apparently he'd count on us doing that mostly on our own as the whole Patrick is my top suspect because he's alive despite Zorblag having been suspicious to me all game stance doesn't do enough to push us in that direction given the strengths of conviction he should have had from us respectively.) Maybe he thought that McGriddle was a confirmed townie and went with the idea that confirmed townies need to be killed as soon as they become evident (it's surprising to me how often people think that without taking into consideration the rest of the players play.)

The trouble with any of those is that I think that Yankee is neither unaware enough to miss where people's suspicions were at the end of the day nor sophisticated enough to be trying to game us into suspecting eachother because he made the unintuitive night kill (his clear dislike of night kill speculation does enter into that.) I also don't think that he had accepted that McGriddle was confirmed town based on what he was saying.

You on the other hand, if you're scum and had made that kill, would have been left in LyLo with Yankee (who has been going after my player spot pretty much all game) and myself (who came out strong against Yankee and vaguely for you) in just about the perfect spot for scum to be.

I still dislike a lot (most really) of Yankee's play throughout the game and think that you've largely stayed out of what would be scum tells but the shape of the game now just doesn't support Yankee being scum nearly as much as it does you being scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Patrick]

Well, you've described alot of what I was thinking, but I see alot of it as less significant. See, if Yankee is scum then his stated opinion of McGriddle is really irrelevant, what matters is whether one of us had any realistic chance of voting McGriddle (I know I wouldn't have, and you also looked like you'd written him off). So I could see a scenario of just killing the pseudo-confirmed innocent here.

Maybe he didn't have a read on where people were in the game (which is tough to buy, especially in my case.)

His last post of yesterday tells us that he didn't know who I suspected.

I also disagree that Yankee wouldn't be sophisticated enough to think of trying to confuse with nightkills; his opening today immediately introduces nightkills (or rather a lack of nightkill on me) as a factor. Actually I think the kill last night would worry more if he'd stuck to his previous opinion that nightkills are basically WIFOM to try and analyse.

Quite rushed, maybe more later.

[Zorblag]

@Patrick, well, whether one of us would vote for McGriddle is important but it's also (perhaps more) important who McGriddle would vote for. McGriddle might well have been the most likely player in the game not to vote for Yankee based on what was said up to that point in the game. Yankee's stated opinion matters a bit just in terms of keeping options open for him and on the off chance that whichever of us was left would re-examine.

I singled myself out as someone he should have a clear read on because of that last comment he made, yes. Him asking it doesn't mean that definitely didn't know nor that he couldn't go back and look at the day if he's scum though. If he killed McGriddle because he was pretty sure that both of us wouldn't then he would have had some read on things at least.

I do think that Yankee is sophisticated enough to think of trying to confuse with nightkills as scum but I don't think he's sophisticated enough to do it and then think that we would arrive at the place he wanted with as little guidance as he's given in that direction.

I also think that you've taken Yankee's opening post today in a context that he didn't intend but I don't want to tell him what I think he meant. As such,

@Yankee, could you clarify what you meant with your first post? Were you expecting Patrick to be the night kill last night? If so, why? If not, why not?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

@Zorblag - The first post of the day I did not necessarily mean that i expected him to die tonight, although i did (breadcrumb my last post of yesterday), but it was meant in general. This entire game he has been one of the most pro-town/active/helpful players in the game, and if all that you guys say is true, then i expected him to be dead before endgame if he were town. And yesterday i was more suspicious of you Zorblag then Mcgriddle, and more of Mcgriddle then Patrick. But coming into this day, with Mcgriddle being the night kill and yet again Patrick lives, i have changed my views... Also, I am also alot less suspicious of you as of Late zorblag based on how logical your thinking seems to be, and how you are looking at both sides of the situation with a calm head. This also makes me think Patrick is scum because he keeps pushing my "wagon" so to speak without considering you a possibility to be scum. This is end game after all, we should be looking at everyone. And I apologize for my play as of late, lets just say I have gotten a new GF that has been taking up most of my time when I dont work....

[Patrick]

@Patrick, well, whether one of us would vote for McGriddle is important but it's also (perhaps more) important who McGriddle would vote for. McGriddle might well have been the most likely player in the game not to vote for Yankee based on what was said up to that point in the game. Yankee's stated opinion matters a bit just in terms of keeping options open for him and on the off chance that whichever of us was left would re-examine.

Who McGriddle would have voted is important, but not what I was debating with this point. I'm saying that the chance of McGriddle being lynched was so tiny that I would call him a virtually confirmed innocent, and I think that any scum who took him into the endgame would be putting all their money on trying to get the other townie lynched rather than McGriddle. In practice I've found many scum do kill a confirmed / near confirmed player in this situation without much thought.

As for the last post made yesterday, I brought that up simply to disprove this:

The trouble with any of those is that I think that Yankee is neither unaware enough to miss where people's suspicions were at the end of the day

Naturally, it is possible that he went back and looked overnight.

I do think that Yankee is sophisticated enough to think of trying to confuse with nightkills as scum but I don't think he's sophisticated enough to do it and then think that we would arrive at the place he wanted with as little guidance as he's given in that direction.

Scum trying to confuse people with a nightkill in this way would probably rather not have to bring it up themselves. Coming into the day with, "I'm not scum because I wouldn't have killed mr X last night!" would be just about the textbook definition of WIFOM. The fact that he didn't bring it up then doesn't magically stop him bringing it up later if suits.


Yankee posted in the meantime. I think you still missed a few questions. I don't think your accusation that I'm failing to look at both sides in this endgame is justified at all. I've given a leaning, but I'm obviously not certain or I'd have voted. I brought up the main thing that puts me in some doubt, and I'm discussing it with Zorblag right now. I'd like you to back this one up, because atm in this endgame I feel you're the one doing the least legwork.

As for not being nightkilled, I don't see it as anything remarkable. The Incognito kill just strikes me as a kill on a fairly strong player who was under little suspicion, the boberz kill I would hazard a guess had an element of doc-hunting. I've already laid out my thoughts on the other two nights. I continue to be sceptical of your claim that my not being nightkilled has changed your opinion that drastically, especially when you were happy to dismiss such things as WIFOM earlier in the game.

[Yankee]

I am doing the least legwork, i admit to that, but I have already explained why most of that is. I am in the process of limiting how many games I am in to reduce the strain. But anyways, it seems like you are using almost all your posts accusing me and trying to convince Zorblag that I am scum, whereas you dont really talk about any faults you have with Zorblag. I cant hold this against you too much though because I am guilty of it as well, but I know my own allignment, but I guess that doesnt help my case either...

And Nightkills excluded, if I were scum why would I drastically change my view from an easier lynch candidate to the most town looking player in the game based on what you guys think is little evidence? I have yet to see you post today a post that looks at both sides of the situation as Zorblag has done, where you take into account the possibility that I am town.

[Patrick]

I have focussed more on you than Zorblag, mostly because I suspect you more and because you keep coming up with bad reasons to attack me. I'm always going to shoot down attacks on me almost regardless of the gamestate. I have relatively fewer issues with Zorblag, as I don't think he's posted anything particularly scummy since replacing in. I also felt that interactions between you and ksen are more consistent with partners than Annachie/ksen, but I plan on looking at those again because it was a while ago. A good part of my talking to Zorblag is because if he's town as I suspect then I'll inevitably have to try and persuade him not to lynch me if I want to win, but that doesn't mean I've put blinders on and stopped observing his posts for alignment info.

And Nightkills excluded, if I were scum why would I drastically change my view from an easier lynch candidate to the most town looking player in the game based on what you guys think is little evidence?

If you're scum then anything you can use on either townie is probably welcome. You didn't exactly cut out options in a way that might hurt you. I'm more interested in hearing town rationale for this.

[Yankee]

I have focussed more on you than Zorblag, mostly because I suspect you more and because you keep coming up with bad reasons to attack me. I'm always going to shoot down attacks on me almost regardless of the gamestate. I have relatively fewer issues with Zorblag, as I don't think he's posted anything particularly scummy since replacing in. I also felt that interactions between you and ksen are more consistent with partners than Annachie/ksen, but I plan on looking at those again because it was a while ago. A good part of my talking to Zorblag is because if he's town as I suspect then

I'll inevitably have to try and persuade him not to lynch me if I want to win

, but that doesn't mean I've put blinders on and stopped observing his posts for alignment info.

And Nightkills excluded, if I were scum why would I drastically change my view from an easier lynch candidate to the most town looking player in the game based on what you guys think is little evidence?

If you're scum then anything you can use on either townie is probably welcome. You didn't exactly cut out options in a way that might hurt you. I'm more interested in hearing town rationale for this.

Is this a slip up? It sure sounds like it....