Newbie 871 - Game Over Town Win

[starkmoon]

No prods or votecounts needed just now

I am going to be away for a long weekend. Probably back late Monday/early Tuesday. If you end day while I am away please feel free to chat away in twilight. Blah blah blah etc I guess...

Starky

[Patrick]

Is this a slip up? It sure sounds like it....

Why are you bolding a few words to misrep me? If you read the entire sentence, you can clearly see that I'm saying

if Zorblag is town

, I'll have to convince him not to lynch me if I want to win.

[Yankee]

the whole "if I want to win" is what is bugging me. Why would you not say "we".

[Patrick]

Sounds like a rather choppy sentence when you put that in, though I don't know enough about strict grammar rules to know whether it's correct or not.

[Yankee]

i agree that the "slip up" isnt that big of a deal to make a case on, which is why i am just mentioning it, but you also have to admit that your defense of it is rather weak. I only bring that "I" and "we" thing up because to me it shows where your thought process is, that you are in to win it for yourself, not the team.

[Patrick]

but you also have to admit that your defense of it is rather weak

??

The sentence with "we" instead of "I" sounds bizarre; I'm not sure I could imagine someone forming the sentence in that way. You seem to be saying it would have been more natural for me to say "we" instead; I'm saying that actually sounds unnatural to me. I suspect I'm being pulled into a pointless debate here. Feel free to carry on if you want, but I'd also like you to answer the questions you didn't from a few posts ago.

[Yankee]

Just letting you guys know I am still here, just had a pretty bad car accident 2 days ago driving in the snow. I dont have any energy at the moment and am lucky I have typed this much, espcially since I am depressed that i ruined my car that i love....

[Zorblag]

@Yankee, sorry to hear about your car. Hopefully no one was hurt in the accident.

I'll be about with some thoughts this evening.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

Thanks Zorblag, but i got to pull myself out of this depression and actually post something game related, lol. So... here it goes...

I fail to see how "we" sounds weird in that situation, to me "I" sounded weird when i read it, but honestly i dont think that is very relevant so lets just drop it. Zorblag, i am almost positive you are the other townie, but you need to post more so we can get conversation flowing and figure out who the true mafia is easier. Lately you seem to be inactive like me, which isnt good for the conversation.

[Zorblag]

So Yankee's statement in the first post today was sort of what I thought it was. I took it to be an overall thing for the game (which it seems that it was) but apparently he was also expecting Patrick to die (and I do see the breadcrumb there) which is a bit surprising to me. This whole experienced players get killed by the scum or they're scum themselves idea gets taken too far. I had a post back in a Mafia Discussion thread which I'd link to now if the search function wasn't disabled that gave my experience with ICs surviving to endgame. It really hasn't been all that uncommon and they've been town more often than they've been scum. I know that I was working with a small sample size there (just 15 or 16 games at the time I think) but I think that the trend that is being assumed here just isn't as true as people actually think it is.

@Yankee, why would logical thinking and looking at both potential lynches here in endgame be a town tell? Is there any reason that I shouldn't do that as scum? It's the same sort of thing that I was going over McGriddle with at the end of yesterday. I ask at the risk of lowering your town read of me because it's pretty important to understand why you've made the turn-around that you have at this point.

@Patrick, why would Yankee wanting you to say who you suspected once more (even given the way that he phrased it) mean that he needs to have been unaware of what people's suspicions were at the end of the day?

Scum trying to confuse people with a nightkill in this way would probably rather not have to bring it up themselves. Coming into the day with, "I'm not scum because I wouldn't have killed mr X last night!" would be just about the textbook definition of WIFOM. The fact that he didn't bring it up then doesn't magically stop him bringing it up later if suits.

You're certainly right that this would be the way that scum should play the game if they were trying to confuse with that nightkill. That's why I'm trying to get at the level of sophisitcation and awareness though. I think that him anticipating this reaction on my part in particular is fairly unlikely. I think that either he's scum who made a night kill based on enough awareness to know that McGriddle looked town to the two of us or that the kill doesn't match what I'd expect from his level of sophistication as scum.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

Logical thinking and looking at both sides is always a town tell, but not a 100% tell, the reason I seem to be much more sure of you then Patrick is because you have done both those things where as Patrick has not done that, at least not as much. Patrick seems to be trying to push my wagon, where as he has not been looking at you as a possibility as all. Granted it seems i have not been doing that either, but I know my own role, so I am only looking between you two. I dont really know how to convince you of my role, but feel free to ask any questions you want.

[Patrick]

@Patrick, why would Yankee wanting you to say who you suspected once more (even given the way that he phrased it) mean that he needs to have been unaware of what people's suspicions were at the end of the day?

I'd given my suspicion less than 4 days ago, and had only made a few posts in between. The only other point on the subject I'd made in the interim was finding your posts townish at the end of the day - seems very unlikely someone would read that and think my suspicion would have changed. I saw it more as him not having noticed what I said.

You're certainly right that this would be the way that scum should play the game if they were trying to confuse with that nightkill. That's why I'm trying to get at the level of sophisitcation and awareness though. I think that him anticipating this reaction on my part in particular is fairly unlikely. I think that either he's scum who made a night kill based on enough awareness to know that McGriddle looked town to the two of us or that the kill doesn't match what I'd expect from his level of sophistication as scum.

I don't think it's that unlikely. You've certainly posted in this game about scum nightkilling giving us information, especially when arguing for a no-lynch on day 3. I'm not sure why anticipating that reaction on your part in particular would be difficult. In the only scum game of his I've looked at he seemed familiar enough with the idea of killing someone to make himself look good. I do agree that if he's scum then a kill on confirmed innocent is more likely to be the reason, or a larger part of the reason.

Logical thinking and looking at both sides is always a town tell, but not a 100% tell, the reason I seem to be much more sure of you then Patrick is because you have done both those things where as Patrick has not done that, at least not as much. Patrick seems to be trying to push my wagon, where as he has not been looking at you as a possibility as all. Granted it seems i have not been doing that either, but I know my own role, so I am only looking between you two. I dont really know how to convince you of my role, but feel free to ask any questions you want.

I don't think either of these are particularly a town tell. This is also the second time you've claimed I'm not even considering the possibility that Zorblag is scum, which isn't true. I'm leaning towards thinking it's you, if you want to make an argument for that being suspicious then please go ahead. The reason I've been giving you a ton of flak compared to him is because you've spent absolutely all your time today coming up with a whole raft of bad reasons to attack me and seemingly sticking by them regardless of whether they're valid, get shot down, or even are things you've done yourself. If you think I'm being illogical today, point out where.

[Yankee]

Ok, this debate is really getting pointless. I am certain that you are the last mafia Patrick, and I see no point in answering your questions. Zorblag, if you feel his questions are relevant and want to know the answer then I would like you to ask me yourself, I will no longer be answering you Patrick, nor asking you questions. The game falls in the Hands of Zorblag, which is the only "known" townie. If Zorblag isnt a townie, then we are screwed anyways because me and Patrick are sworn against each other, so I feel comfortable with....

Vote: Patrick

[Yankee]

Ok, this debate is really getting pointless. I am certain that you are the last mafia Patrick, and I see no point in answering your questions. Zorblag, if you feel his questions are relevant and want to know the answer then I would like you to ask me yourself, I will no longer be answering you Patrick, nor asking you questions. The game falls in the Hands of Zorblag, which is the only "known" townie. If Zorblag isnt a townie, then we are screwed anyways because me and Patrick are sworn against each other, so I feel comfortable with....

Vote: Patrick

[starkmoon]

Yankee
Zorblag
Patrick 1 Yankee


Zorblag
Patrick

Back now, will check in on you later this evening/tomorrow.

[Zorblag]

Quickly not voting to verify that I'm town.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

Well I was almost certain of that, and if you werent, we were gonna lose anyways, so I saw no point in postponing the inevitable.

[Patrick]

Vote: Yankee

. Glad to see I wasn't wrong about that.

Zorblag, if you have other questions about my play, ask. All I can ask you is not to throw this game just because Yankee chose to kill the virtually confirmed guy last night. You got the right read out of the thread yesterday, you can see over the course of the game who's been looking for scum and who's just been grasping opportunities to attack people.

All game ksen has expressed some suspicion of herd/Yankee to fit in with others, but always managed to place a vote and push a lynch elsewhere. Yankee's interaction with ksen's claim on day 3 gives him away, look at the speed of the turnaround and some of the reasons he gives. Does Post 731 strike you as something anyone would actually believe? All this, and the ridiculous attempts to paint you as defending ksen on day 4 are because he knew ksen was going to flip scum and was trying to make up for having initially "believed" his claim.

I'm not surprised Yankee has avoided a load of questions today and yesterday, because he just didn't have legitimate answers. If he was town who genuinely thought McGriddle stood a reasonable chance of being scum then he would have argued against our interpretation of McGriddle as practically cleared yesterday. He didn't because he had no fears about McGriddle's alignment.

I'm sure I could write more about his scummitude, but I don't think it's exactly been lost on you anyway. You're paranoid about the nightkill, I can't entirely blame you for that because it worried me a little as well. As I said last post, I think the most likely scenario is that Yankee killed McGriddle as a semi-automatic kill; whether it was a good play is your decision, but alot of people (of all skill levels) do just kill off confirmed / near confirmed people as a matter of course.

[Yankee]

Vote: Yankee

. Glad to see I wasn't wrong about that.

Zorblag, if you have other questions about my play, ask. All I can ask you is not to throw this game just because Yankee chose to kill the virtually confirmed guy last night. You got the right read out of the thread yesterday, you can see over the course of the game who's been looking for scum and who's just been grasping opportunities to attack people.

All game ksen has expressed some suspicion of herd/Yankee to fit in with others, but always managed to place a vote and push a lynch elsewhere. Yankee's interaction with ksen's claim on day 3 gives him away, look at the speed of the turnaround and some of the reasons he gives. Does Post 731 strike you as something anyone would actually believe? All this, and the ridiculous attempts to paint you as defending ksen on day 4 are because he knew ksen was going to flip scum and was trying to make up for having initially "believed" his claim.

I'm not surprised Yankee has avoided a load of questions today and yesterday, because he just didn't have legitimate answers. If he was town who genuinely thought McGriddle stood a reasonable chance of being scum then he would have argued against our interpretation of McGriddle as practically cleared yesterday. He didn't because he had no fears about McGriddle's alignment.

I'm sure I could write more about his scummitude, but I don't think it's exactly been lost on you anyway. You're paranoid about the nightkill, I can't entirely blame you for that because it worried me a little as well. As I said last post, I think the most likely scenario is that Yankee killed McGriddle as a semi-automatic kill; whether it was a good play is your decision, but alot of people (of all skill levels) do just kill off confirmed / near confirmed people as a matter of course.

lol

[Zorblag]

So I should be able to look over the game one more over the next couple days at the latest and make a decision. I will ask if I come up with any new questions. I'm also happy to hear anything you think I might not be noticing till now.

Basically I agree with pretty much all that Patrick says about Yankee acting far scummier of the two of you throughout the game. I complained about it towards the end of the day yesterday and I haven't changed my mind about any of the individual actions. The case he's tried to present on Patrick today doesn't impress me at all. I'd have acted about the same way today if I was scum rather than town and I don't think that the distinctions he's drawing between my play and Patricks as a reason for his certainty are all that meaningful.

On the other hand, I'm also not sold on the reasons that I can see for the McGriddle night kill coming from Yankee. Yankee wouldn't have a great reason given what I think I know about his game from what I've seen to make the last minute switch from attacking me to attacking Patrick out of the blue if he were scum going for that kill. Patrick on the other hand plays a very good game (and knows some about mine.) Certainly good enough to have stayed cool as scum and get into the spot we ended yesterday with where it would have looked like McGriddle as a kill would more or less seal a victory for him based on everything I could see.

That doesn't mean that I think Patrick is scum because he's skilled enough to pull this off if he were. That'd be a terrible argument. It just means that I'm not ruling it out.

At this point the decision for me is going to hinge on whether I think, after looking everything over once more, Yankee's overall skill is (and specifically how subtle and observant I think he can be.)

I'll try not to make you wait too long. Regardless of how it goes I've enjoyed my time in the game. Whichever of you is scum isn't leaving me with an easy choice here so good enough work at that (though that might reflect more on my lack of ability to make these choices than anything.)

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Yankee]

@ Zorblag - You should really read Patrick's Posts in ISO, i just read the last 2 pages of ISO on Patrick and he seems to be accusing Ksen of scum without much if any evidence, and never votes for him. Seems like a partner bussing his teammate to get clear today. Also, do you remember how Boberz (i think it was boberz) kept asking me if I was cop, and hinting that I was, and I kept denying it. Well if I were scum, why would i not counterclaim Ksen and get him lynched and go along the rest of the game as the "real" cop if I knew there was no other cop... Instead I denied it, because i am NOT the cop, there is no Cop. Also, you should go back and re-read that whole discussion about "who Boberz protected N2" discussion and why would the only power role in the game for the town have me so low on his scum list and never even consider me scum, EVER (at least after the successful night protection...) Any questions feel free to ask.

[Zorblag]

@Yankee, yeah, I'll look at those things. I would have read Patrick's posts in isolation again anyhow. As for you being low on Boberz's list after the protection, it is pretty clear (well as clear as it can be trying to figure out what he was thinking given that he lied about being a doctor) that he thinks thought Ether was a cop with an innocent on you. You wouldn't counter-claim Ksen because your first reaction had been to clear him because he had cleared you which is also a decent scum strategy.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Patrick, out of curiosity, if you had to guess why do you think that Yankee switched to attacking you today from attacking me?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Yankee, who do you think is more experienced at Mafia, Ether or me?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Zorblag]

@Patrick, I'd like to open this post with an apology to you. Having finished re-reading the game I see that pretty much every instance in which you've been attacked has been for garbage reasons. That includes my earlier saying that you were the most likely scum partner for Ksen because Boberz had probably protected Yankee. You've played a really good game and clearly deserve to win this thing.

But I'm going to be voting for you anyhow. And I'm going to be voting for you not for anything you've done if you're scum but rather because Yankee has played poorly if he's scum but not poorly enough to think he'd both kill McGridle and then turn from attacking me to attacking you to open the day. It's a combination which almost certainly should have taken away any hope he had of winning the game as scum. He consistently makes mistakes about what's happening during the game (who's suspected who, how many votes it takes to get a lynch, what will or won't clear someone, etc.) but I don't see any reason to think that he'd misread the probable endgame that poorly.

If I'm losing the game for you as town then I'm even more sorry (and not just because I'm losing it as well.) If that's the case then it's just one more piece of overall game flow that's going to go against you for reasons that you couldn't have had any reasonable way to prevent as you didn't have control over the night kills.

@Yankee, you've won this game. Congratulations! If you're town then we probably just got stupid lucky by both making what I think was the unexpected choice today. If you're scum then somehow you managed to read how I'd react correctly and I'm vastly underestimating you or you stumbled into just the right combination of end of game plays to win by accident. Of course it's also true that if you're scum then you've just beaten me so clearly I don't know as much as I always think I do.

The game has been fun and I look forward to seeing everyone I interacted with here in the future. Thank you for the modding and letting me jump in as a replacement Starkmoon! I'll want to say more later but for now I'll just end this.

Vote: Patrick

-Zorblag R`Lyeh