Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[VP Baltar]

Unvote, Vote: hitogoroshi

Meta double take.

DDD, did you look at Reck's scum meta that I provided? I'd like to hear your opinion on it.

[Albert B. Rampage]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClwqMGV0Ibk

Epic music starts to play as the game reaches it's climax...

[Albert B. Rampage]

I think RECKONER knew that charlatan was going to get lynched, so he bandwagonned his scumbuddy at the end of Day 1 for town credibility.

I say hitogoroshi scum with Serialclergyman or Zorblag.

[VP Baltar]

And the film always ends with the arch-rival assassins teaming up to kill the even greater threat.

I agree with ABR.

[hitogoroshi]

But Albert, I thought you were 100% certain both of Reck's scumbuddies bussed.

VPB, is this my meta or Reck's meta we're talking about here? Also it would have been nice for you to point out you cast the L-1 vote.

Notice what happened here. Reckoner was at L-1, and then suddenly these two slipped off of the wagon (and let's be honest, THEY were specifically what made the Reck wagon seem less popular and possible today.) They did it by 'gunning' for each other, but now ABR seems to have forgotten SC entirely and SC has been doing his damndest to suck any energy from the ABR wagon while he's sitting on it.

I'm calling it - if ABR flips scum, SC is probably scum with him.

See - it's written as if Reck had already flipped. It also makes no strong stand (we'd need to have ABR flip, and flip a certain alignment, before he makes a solid prediction.) The actual accusation itself isn't revelatory at all - I was openly and honestly discussing my doubts about ABR and my opposition to the Reck wagon.

But that's just it - what happened to those doubts on ABR? You had a 'gut read' on him and yet almost immediately after casting the vote you downplayed the wagon every chance you had

while sitting on it

.

'm liking VP's lynch list because it's more or less right in line with my own (though I'm also willing to go for SC). I disagree, though, that we should 'stop beating this dead horse.' VP, we seem to be the only ones that notice the horse is dead at all, and I think this is worth some more work.

As I said from the start, it's hard not to like a Reck lynch when confirmed townies love it so, but this resistance to an ABR lynch is something I want to push at now, rather than defer to.

This is the actual way a scum player attempts to derail their partner's lynch, as opposed to the Sando way.

So when you vote Reck, then unvote, then vote ABR on an ephemeral gut read that you fail to follow through, that's townie, but when I say I'd take a Reck lynch but would prefer an ABR lynch, that's scum derailing?

I'm kind of aggravated that while I feel ABR came off greatly for the worse in that exchange everyone else seems inclined to pretend it never happened because his vote is back on Reck. That being said, lynching Reck is a hell of a consolation prize so I'm not as mad as I normally would be.

Vi, I'll probably be with you tomorrow on that Sando lynch (I'm gonna re-read him tonight with his most recent posts in mind). But for now, what the hell:

unvote, vote: Reckoner

And that is L-1 for real this time.

And thisi s the way an actual scum player sneaks in at the end of a wagon to bus their buddy before it's too late.

That's one thing I don't understand - it's like both you and ABR think that the scum will DIE if they don't get a bus in before their partner gets lynched (except ABR forgot he thinks that now I guess). Granted I'm not the most reliable source on this what with the never-scum and all, but it seems to me that you'd want to mix it up precisely to avoid this simplistic kind of analysis. Vi and Zorblag were both not on the Reck wagon and I have not heard a single accusation that it's a particularly scummy place to be.

[VP Baltar]

It's Reck's meta hito. I put up a detailed post about it.

[Albert B. Rampage]

But Albert, I thought you were 100% certain both of Reck's scumbuddies bussed.

SC did vote RECK for a good part of the day, he just unvoted at the last second.

[hitogoroshi]

VP: So you're saying you're voting me because you're convinced Reck's early vote could have only been a bus? I can see your meta argument arguing that it could have possibly been a bus, but it kinda tees me off that you're putting me at L-1 for what looks like nothing more than the idea that it's impossible for Reck not to bus d1 - and that argument was apparently enough to get you to get over your two big scum reads/preferred lynches of SC/ABR and vote with the pair of them.



(In the interests of not being mis-interpreted if I die, I do still think VPB is town - it just bugs me because it seemed like he was seeing the same scummy things I was and yet now he switched to me for what I think is a frivolous non-argument.)

But Albert, I thought you were 100% certain both of Reck's scumbuddies bussed.

SC did vote RECK for a good part of the day, he just unvoted at the last second.

lol wut

So now you're trying to say that you NEVER thought the Reck wagon argument cleared SC?

Thinking back, Sando is town much for the same reason Serialclergyman is. Vi is town because Vi is town.

To be clear, 'much the same reason serialclergyman is' is 'people not voting for the scum are obviously town?'

Yes hito, RECKONER was bussed by both his partners, one of which was yourself.

Unvote, vote hitogoroshi

Seriously, your post is trying to say 'but SC DID bus Reck' and that is just stupid.

ps. Also, ABR, you and SC should talk because you said this:

I highly doubt scum would try to mount a rival bandwagon out of nothing when RECK was almost certainly going to be lynched.

And yet SC thinks that me jumping on your wagon was clearly me trying to derail the Reck wagon. You can't both be right here~

pps. when I say talk, I mean here and now, not tonight in your scum quicktopic.

[Sando]

And what of the VP Rampage duo?

What do you mean? You mean your question about the interaction between VPB and ABR? I did answer that regarding the VPB/ABR 'circus'.

But you said yesterday that you were waiting on hito to finish reading. If the hito/Porkchop slot is scum as you say, wouldn't that be at cross-purposes?

I don't see why, I found his previous incantation scummy, and he was obviously alluding to finding me scummy. Interaction is the cornerstone of scumhunting, why would I want to avoid it as town?

I'm curious as to what gave you a neutral read on xRx considering you were one of the people asking him questions before the wagon particularly took off. (In particular, he didn't directly answer your last question )

I actually said that I found him slightly scummy, but am unsure that I would have voted him under a neutral situation. I simply didn't find much of what Reck did scummy, compared to others. I think a few people were going on fairly gut reads, and I didn't get a gut scum read on him.

Again, I thought you had general misgivings about the PorkchopExpress slot as early as D1?

I did. But in the first instance, they were D1 suspicions, carried over into D2, and secondly, they were reinforced mainly because I felt he was avoiding posting and basically actively lurking. Him replacing out said to me that there was another reason for a general lack of activity. And as Zorblag said, I think Hito's catch-up posts gave him town-cred, deserved or not, and I think I bought that a bit.

My gues, should I be lynched here, is that another supporter of the hito lynch will probably die tomorrow.

Veeeeeery interesting. So you don't disagree with my assertion that you're keen to look at the NK and who the target was attacking, yet you are ignoring the death of Ojanen, despite her being on the same wagon as you at the end of D2...

[SerialClergyman]

Good one sando. Now all you have left to do is find the part where I didn't agree that VP was scummy and quote it. Or claiming I was tempting Albert into OMGUSing me part. Or the part where I argue that charlatan's meta changing means he's likely to be the same role.

Because I've actually done none of those things.

[Sando]

I think ABR, DDD, Sando are town. That leaves scum between hito, VP, Vi and Troll.

You should kill hito tomorrow, and probably VP after that.

Whoa there, the strength of your conviction is just blowing me away!

You said in the dead QTopic last game, and I believe in the eng-game wrap-up, and even more strongly to me personally, that you thought that not enough was done to analyse the NK. You've again stated that you think that NKs, and even lynches, are targetted at people attacking scum. And yet, despite your wagon-buddy, Ojanen, being NKd, your prime suspect from yesterday has gone down your scumlist. Your two statements regarding VPB being scum are that he's basically a 50% chance of being scum because xyz are town' and that he should 'probably' be lynched, not tomorrow, but the day after, after we should definitely kill Hito tomorrow.

You also stated that you don't necessarily believe that both scum were on the wagon, yet the only person of the 4 you think are possible scum that weren't on the wagon was Vi, and you've barely mentioned him today, or yesterday.

You have no conviction, you're going after Hito because you think he's the best chance of you avoiding a lynch. You're avoiding going after the person you found most scummy at the end of D2 and who should have, from your own statements, gone up in scumminess to you.

My accusation regarding the inviting the OMGUS from ABR was from you saying ‘well I expected the OMGUS vote from Albert’.

As for the Charlatan comment, saying ‘his scum play is great, therefore his town play must be great’ is illogical at best.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Unvote, Vote: hitogoroshi

Meta double take.

DDD, did you look at Reck's scum meta that I provided? I'd like to hear your opinion on it.

I didn't check the links, but I'll trust the analysis since it would be potentially lethally stupid for you to lie about what they entailed. I think that certainly removes one of my main objections to the possibility that PCE/Hito is scum. I'm really having a hard time parsing between Hito and SC lately as to who I think is scummier. If they aren't partners then I'd look to Sando and Zorblag next and I still have no idea how to read ABR.

@Mod: Vote count, plz

[SerialClergyman]

Zzz.

Re-think, sando.

DDD - Hito is at L-1, I'm at L-2 and you're theo nly one unvoted. I believe I have hito, sando and Vi on my wagon, and he has me, ABR, Zorblag and VP.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Claim please.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I can go either Serialclergyman or Hitogoroshi today. Both are good candidates.

[hitogoroshi]

Okay since apparently SC and ABR are going to ignore anything they can get away with ignoring let me try this as a direct question:

SC, ABR, I want to hear what each of you thought about the other from D2 to now.

Additionally, SC, I'm curious to know what your level of motivation for mafia in general and this game in particular has been for the last week or so.

Also, I'm a vanilla townie. I've got a little theory on this game (which is partly dependent on ABR and SC's responses, which is why I'm not posting it quite yet) and it's also dependent on my non-masonhood so I'll just throw that out now.

[VP Baltar]

VP: So you're saying you're voting me because you're convinced Reck's early vote could have only been a bus? I can see your meta argument arguing that it could have possibly been a bus, but it kinda tees me off that you're putting me at L-1 for what looks like nothing more than the idea that it's impossible for Reck not to bus d1 - and that argument was apparently enough to get you to get over your two big scum reads/preferred lynches of SC/ABR and vote with the pair of them.

Well, it's not just that it

could

be a bus from Reck, but from what meta he has as scum where he doesn't get lynched day one he seems to have a strong proclivity toward bussing.

I don't like how flippant SC is being about the points Sando is making.

I'm also interested where hito is going with his theory.


Vi, I'd like your thoughts on some of this.

Also, SC and ABR are certainly not off my scum list or anything like that. I still don't like SC in this scenario and if you're not scum, then I'd say with almost certainty that he is.

[SerialClergyman]

There are three reasons why I'm talking like this to sando.

1) If I get into a wall of text argument with him, he will settle into his side of the argument and never change. I'm trying to get him to challenge his own reasoning, rather than doing it for him and putting him in the place of the antagoniser.

2) When I asked him to provide quotes for three of his major points against me, he couldn't. Even without a long argumentative process, I'm hoping that will cause him to reassess a little.

3) I'm being a bit sulky, which is not an attractive trait, so will try to psyche up.

Sando - I think that there is absolutely nothing of substance in the Albert and Charlatan issues you have with me. I've explained them from my point of view and I think your characterisation of them is really just not there.

The Night kill point you have the basis for something correct, in that in that game I whinged about people not looking at my death. This is all true. It would have been a good thing for me to do here as well, given it led straight to Reck on D2. But I didn't look at it as much as I could have. I never dismiss the case on VP, but I don't pick it up as much as I could.

SO, you know, sue me. There are plenty of other factors in making the decision, I didn't choose this particular one as much as you'd like, in a totally subconscious way.

If you think this is a scum tell, essentially you're saying that scum has to be me and VP (because why would I not push town VP in this way). Do you think that a SC/VP scumteam is that likely? Could you put it on ice to knock off another scummy player in hito and if he flips scum then your tell is looking a lot less likely to be successful?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I am relatively ready for a hammer.

[SerialClergyman]

Hito, my thoughts on Albert have been pretty well documented.

I was neutral on him through D1. He started irritating me on D2 by claiming how right he was with charlatan despite posting a case against him and voting him. I've tried to get him to answer why he made that post but he hasn't responded IIRC. When I asked people to join me on Reck, and Albert was suddenly on and giving permission to hammer L1, I got very suspicious. I said in my switch to vote him that this might be a day early, meaning perhaps I should wait till Reck flipped to see whether the case on Albert was a good one.

Once I switched I had mediocre support. Your case was based on a lot of stuff that Albert can meta away (the OMGUS, for example). Then Ojanen started psyching up and my suspicions were all turned around. I thought her points about VP were solid and my wagon on Albert was going nowhere. I fully expected Reck to flip town. He didn't.

This put Albert's scumminess out the window, because I don't think he'd bus like that and the fire came back into him. It also shook me and my confidence in my understanding of the game. As far as I'm is concerned, Albert is town. DDD too.

[Albert B. Rampage]

scummy as hell ^^

Unvote, vote SC

[SerialClergyman]

Told you VP - sometimes sullen and silent is the way to go

I'm Vanilla.

Don't hammer till sando gets a chance to read and think about everything.

[SerialClergyman]

Yo Albert - full page post reading the scummy motivations for that post which was scummy as all hell please. Get your psychology on and analyse my posts and do that thing where you use your extensive conditioning to determine my real scummy intent.

[Albert B. Rampage]

At this point DDD holds the power over both your fates.

[SerialClergyman]

And don't use that simulpost to pretend like you didn't hear - I want to be profiled...