DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[Dragon Phoenix]

Well SaberKitty it is then. She is sent packing and has to leave the party. A wise choice?
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Not really. You have just kicked out Talitha, a doctor.

Anyway, night falls, off to bed everybody. Sweet dreams. Dawn will be Monday 8PM GMT.

[Dragon Phoenix]

DAY 3
With the departure of Talitha fresh on your minds, you wake up to more mayhem and ambulance sirens. Rolandofthewhite (Mackay, role name finder) has left the party, with a shot wound. The other victim gives you a double fingered salute as they carry him in the ambulance, whispering: "bastards, I wanted to get you all". Mr Stoofer (HyToFry, SK) is carried off with an acute case of food poisoning.
Fourteen of you left, eight to kick the next one out.

[MeMe]

Guess

: food poisoning = IS (chef)

And I'd like to hear tss's explanation of what "two more scum to bag" means.

[Commodore Amazing]

Is there any way the bandwagon that formed on SaberKitty yesterday was there to protect Mr Stoofer? Could the scum have known who he was and wanted to keep him alive? I'm thinking this is plausible, and I'm guessing a vigilante took out Stoofer on Leonidas's recommendation.

fos: LoudmouthLee, MeMe, nanook, the silent speaker, Nox

.

Is there a kill method that matches up with what HyToFry would have done as a serial killer? I don't know who HyToFry is.

HyToFry: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/profile. ... file&u=132

[Commodore Amazing]

Double post!

Player name: Mr Stoofer
Night actions: You will take out their eyeballs with your famous two-fingered Hy-original salute. A cop will not be able to detect you.

Well, there goes that theory. Leo is not a cop. But we do know Mr Stoofer killed olio, and no one was shot night 2 (shooting is probably the mafia kill method). Maybe if our doctor were alive, she could tell us who she protected... we do know that SaberKitty defended MeMe somewhat, but that's it, really.

vote: the silent speaker

. Best guess.

[Fuldu]

Bandwagons don't generally form to protect Serial Killers, CA. Nobody else would want to protect them. Even if the other scum knew who Stoofer was, why would they have cared whether he lived or died? I don't disagree with the idea that it was a vig who took him out, but there's nothing especially incriminating in having voted for SaberKitty over Stoofer.

[Vesuvan]

Where were we?

Oh yes, that's right.

Vote: MeMe

[Axelrod]

Okay, I'm back. Very interesting turn of events at the end of the day yesterday, and during the night.

So much for the 'No SK" theory. That means Stoofer either chose not to kill Night 1, or got blocked in some way. Ditto Night 3. If someone did block him, nice work.

Here's who's left:

1. Someone - MatthewV
3. NanookTheWolf
4. MeMe
5. The Shadow
7. LoudmouthLee
9. Vesuvan
10. Fuldu
12. PeaceBringer - Hey_Herb
14. Leonidas
15. AxelRod
16. EnterYourNameHere
17. Commodore Amazing
18. the silent speaker
20. Nox - PolarBoy

Of this group the people who seem the "most" cleared to me, by action or by claim are:

1. Someone - self voting + timing of same + basic townie claim + Jeepfest
9. Vesuvan - indirect claim which would have been exceedingly tricky for a mafia to make. Not that he's not capable of this, but I believe him now.
12. PeaceBringer - Claim + Jeepfest
18. the silent speaker - play. I can't believe post #235 was written by a mafia. I just can't. Sue me.
20. Nox - believable (to me) basic townie claim. This is the least strong feeling out of this group, however.

That leaves:

3. NanookTheWolf
4. MeMe
5. The Shadow
7. LoudmouthLee
10. Fuldu
14. Leonidas
16. EnterYourNameHere
17. Commodore Amazing

(I'm taking myself out, but you obviously don't have to)

There may be as many as 5 mafia in this group.

The "Lurkiest" = The Shadow; Leonidas; EnterYourNameHere. Of these I was most critical of Leonidas, but now I'm not sure. I now put him below those other two.

So, in no particular order:

Commodore Amazing (his vote on TSS is not looking good right now, and his wild voting at the end of the past day is suspect.)
The Shadow (I can't remember anything of substance he has said)
EnterYourNameHere (equally non-committal)
MeMe (lots of posts, less substance? I do see one possible reason to put her below the others in terms of suspicion, however.)
LoudmouthLee (rubbing me the wrong way right now)
Fuldu (hard to read. Very deliberate. Very critical or others. Trusts Leonidas?)
Nanook (I don't see anything striking me as especially suspicious. But obviously nothing that "clears" him either)
Leonidas (his "guts" were right. Was it just luck?)

LoudmouthLee and MeMe were also at the forefront of the deadline lynch SaberKitty wagon. This in and of itself may not mean much, as the other choice - Stoofer - was not a mafia, and therefore they would not have had a reason to "protect" him. But if the mafia had a way to identify power roles....

Vote: LoudmouthLee

for now.

I'll go back and possibly to a PBPA later to see if I can identify what's rubbing me the wrong way about him. In the meantime I'll also give the

FOS: to Commodore Amazing, Shadow, and EnterYourNameHere.

[Fuldu]

So much for the 'No SK" theory. That means Stoofer either chose not to kill Night 1, or got blocked in some way. Ditto Night 3. If someone did block him, nice work.

Given the arrangement of the nights' kills, Axelrod makes

part

of an important point. Stoofer's Night One and Night Three kills didn't occur, with Night Three being after our doctor was already dead. What he doesn't point out is that the shooting kill (mafia, presumably) didn't occur Night Two. But the fact that he left out that piece of information, the way he's phrased what he does say, and the superfluous "nice work" at the end makes this feel like scum fishing for an explanation of the missed kills. With Stoofer's Night Three kill not going through, scum know somebody is still out there protecting people and I think Axelrod is trying to find them.

vote: Axelrod

LoudmouthLee and MeMe were also at the forefront of the deadline lynch SaberKitty wagon.

Vote: LoudmouthLee for now.

This sort of argument bothers me, too. He makes a point of suspecting two people, but only votes one of them, and that tentatively. It's nothing definitive - obviously he can only vote for one of them - but if Axelrod

is

scum, I'll want to look at MeMe next.

[the silent speaker]

The reason for my late vote switch was as follows. I took it as a presumption that the day 1 oliowagon was clean of scum, and I considered Stoofer a litmus for the SaberKitty bandwagon, too. Only a few people failed to be on both bandwagons, and some of those (MeMe, for one) I had side reasons for believing not scum. Fuldu was one of the remaining suspicious ones, and SaberKitty was another; Mr Stoofer, of course, was not. So when Fuldu jumped on the non-SaberKitty bandwagon at the twenty-third hour, pushing it one past the SaberKitty wagon, I felt sure he was scum trying to protect fellow scum, hence the last-moment vote switch.

Clearly, that didn't work, but equally clearly, assuming a clean oliowagon the day 1 Saberwagon was also not scum-supported. Here are the voting records of those who did not vote olio, and are still alive:
* ...... Ves ...... SK ...... olio ...... Some ...... PBuG
NTW .. no ....... no ...... no ........ yes ......... yes
MeMe .. no ....... no ...... no ........ no ......... yes
Shad .. yes ...... no ...... no ........ yes ........ no
Fuldu .. no ....... no ..... no ......... yes ........ no
EYNH .. yes ..... no ...... no ....... no ........... yes
CA ..... yes ..... yes ..... no ........ no .......... yes
Nox .... no ...... no ....... no ........ no .......... yes

Seven names, and only one of them (Commodore Amazing) who was on the Day 1 Saberwagon. I think we can figure that wagon clean too, and peg the Cmdr. provisionally as town. But notice that no fewer than FIVE names on that list voted for PBuG; Cmdr. A was one, and MeMe was another (I still think she's good) but the other five people all voted either for Someone or for PBuG, and three of the suspicious ones voted for two people now known or presumed to be townies: Nanook, for both Someone and PBuG; Shadow and EYNH, for Vesuvan as well as their late choice.

So the next logical thing to do is crossreference the day 2 bandwagons.
Was on a Somewagon (and is still alive): Commodore, moi, Axelrod, LoudmouthLee, The Shadow... hmm. Two out of five, but only one not being treated as town pending further information. At this time the competing bandwagon was for Nox, who is on the list but rated way down there; that bandwagon got Vesuvan, rolandofthewhite, Mr Stoofer, MeMe, and Fuldu, only the last two of whom interest me and one of those the trusted MeMe.
Then came the Stoofer/Kitty wagons: on Stoof, Leonidas; yours truly; Someone; ... hey wait, here's a vote by Nanook of Nox, keeping her (temporarily) at five, enough for a deadline-lynch!
Anyway, three relatively uninteresting votes so far for Stoofer, plus Vesuvan; Commodore; and Fuldu, whose vote prompted me to jump wagons.
SaberKitty got: LoudmouthLee; MeMe; Nanook; Mr Stoofer; roland; me late; and Nox.
Tallying the big seven's voting records:
* .......... Some ....... Nox ....... Stoof ....... SK
NTW ..... no ........... yes ......... no .......... yes
MeMe .... no .......... yes .......... no ......... yes
Shad ..... yes ......... no ........... no ......... no
Fuldu ..... no .......... yes .......... yes ....... no
EYNH ..... no .......... no ............ no ........ no
CA ........ yes ......... no ............ yes ....... no
Nox ....... no ............ - ............ no ......... yes

If our scum are among these, they did a good job scattering their votes. EYNH in particular managed to lurk his way through day 2 without getting called on it; seven posts and only one vote and unvote. But no wagon got more than three, and in both cases one of those was MeMe, and the third voter on one of them was the target of the other...
Possibly less important notes: Fuldu was the only one on the Noxwagon not also on the Kittywagon; the only vice versa case was Nox, who could hardly be expected to join the wagon on herself. Shadow voted for neither Stoof nor SK, the only other break in the pattern that those who voted Someone voted Stoof and refrained from voting both SK and Nox while those who refrained from voting Someone also refrained from voting Stoof and did vote SK and Nox.

I still think our best bets are Nanook, YourName and The Shadow. But I'm much less sure of it than I was just before the lynch went down. Fuldu and Commodore occupy the next tier; I still believe MeMe, and Nox claimed.

[Vesuvan]

Okay, TSS, the reasoning behind your analysis has either lost me completely or it is intentionally misleading.

Clearly, that didn't work, but equally clearly, assuming a clean oliowagon the day 1 Saberwagon was also not scum-supported. Here are the voting records of those who did not vote olio, and are still alive:

How would NOT being on the Olio wagon be indicitive of someone being scum when Olio turned out to be a townie?

That's only the first problem I have with your analysis and it continues to look very misleading from there.

FOS: TSS

[LoudmouthLee]

My vote on SaberKitty was the first vote. I didn't feel comfortable with either the Someone or the Nox lynch. I don't see exactly how THAT makes me scummy. Saberkitty was a lurker, and I'm not fond of lurkers. With that, I'm going to

FoS: Axelrod

for his incredible crap logic there. I wasn't trying to start a bandwagon, instead, I was putting my vote in a place that I thought it was worth. I guess I was wrong.

With that in mind, I'm going to continue my lurker hunt, a la TSS, and

Vote: EnterYourNameHere

At this point in time, he has not contributed anythimg towards the thread. If he shows up and contributes, or new info comes to light, I will be happy to change my vote, though.

[Leonidas]

And so Mr Stoofer was, indeed, scum.

vote: Axelrod

[Axelrod]

Heh. So much for the theory that Leonidas has some kind of inside information. I'm also amused LmL is accusing me of "CrapLogic" when I have not, in fact, set out the logic behind my vote yet, but that's neither here or there.

@Fuldu: you keep misinterpreting my posts, which is becomming more an more suspicious. If you think I'm fishing for information, then why

wouldn't

I mention the missing mafia kill? It appears you are, on the one hand, suspicious because I mention Stoofer's missing kills (fishing), but, on the other hand, also suspicious because I

don't

mention the missing mafia kill (um, not fishing?). Which sounds to me like you are just criticizing whatever I say.

In point of fact, I suspect a role-block of Stoofer, as opposed to some kind of Doc. protect. He would have been a logical target for this considering the votes yesterday.

Then you misinterpret my post to say I'm suspecting two people, and imply I'm trying to "protect" MeMe--which is flatly wrong. I'm looking at

eight

people right now, one of which is you, another is MeMe, all of whom are not cleared in my mind. The Saberkitty bandwagon remark was not meant to suggest that LmL and MeMe are the "top" two suspects, it was just something I was noting.

Still putting together the LmL case. (But I'll just note for the moment that he now appears to be going on another "lurker" hunt again, despite the repeated failure of this method to find scum thus far--which is an easy argument for a scum to make).

[MeMe]

tss -- that whole analysis confuses me. What I'm basically getting out of it is "everyone's kind of suspicious, but I believe MeMe -- who's also suspicious."

I'm still missing where the "two more scum to bag tomorrow" comment is explained. Specifically: who are these two scum if Kitty had been a baddie? Who are they now that we know she wasn't? And what did you mean by "more" when, at that point, we'd yet to bag

any

scum?

[Someone]

Hmm. On one hand, I don't think that tss is scum. It would take very gutsy scum to make all this analysis if it was all a bold-faced lie. OTOH, it doesn't necessarily mean that his analysis is correct.

The problem is, once scum realised that we were analysing vote patterns to death, they probably put much more care into dispersing their votes. It's getting less likely each day that looking at the voting patterns will tell a lot.

On a side note, how many scum do we think are left? I'm thinking at least four?

Anyways, my gut tells me that axelrod is scum, but his votes say otherwise. I'll withhold my vote for now though.

[Commodore Amazing]

A vote from Leonidas goes a long way in my book. As long as Leo keeps picking scum, I'm happy to follow him until the end.

unvote: the silent speaker, vote: Axelrod

.

I would like to hear from PeaceBringer about his drugs. And who Hey_Herb is. Hey_Herb is the first name mentioned who doesn't actually have a scum account (I think).

[Fuldu]

I checked a couple of things, and Fuldu's last post told me all I needed to know. Unvote: Mr Stoofer, vote: SaberKitty and come what may there should be two more scum to bag tomorrow.

and Fuldu, whose vote prompted me to jump wagons.

The context of the first quote led me to believe that if SaberKitty had turned up scum, I would have been one of the "two more scum" that tss would have been pointing to, and the second quote, from today, helps to back that view. Although I'll join with MeMe in requesting that tss explain his comments a bit more thoroughly, what I'd really like to know is why, given that SaberKitty wasn't scum, his suspicion of me doesn't seem to have lessened.

As for Axelrod's responses to my comments:

I think not mentioning the missing mafia kill is totally consistent with scum fishing for information. If you're scum, you're going to want to fish for information without drawing attention to the reasons why scum might be interested in that information. Further, scum generally have to be careful about revealing information that only they would be privy to, thus outing themselves as scum. Avoiding talking about their own scum group entirely is one (fairly simplistic) way of doing this.

I think your suspicion of a role-block on Stoofer is, as you say, logical, but I don't see what you hope to gain by pointing it out. You did the same on Day One, suggesting that we'd had a lucky doc. Sure, maybe, but so what?

And you mention suspicions of eight players on the basis of, in most cases, very little. But then you explicitly mention two of them with an actual (if, not particularly strong) argument and vote one of those two. You can say that this was not meant to suggest that they're your top two subjects, but it certainly comes across that way. And I wasn't implying that you were trying to protect MeMe, exactly, just that "Accuse A & B, but vote A; where B is partner scum" is a fairly common distancing strategy. It doesn't increase the likelihood that you're scum - I've come to that conclusion on other grounds - and it only increases the likelihood that MeMe's scum if you turn out to be scum (and even that not by a whole lot). But I felt it was an argument that merited saying, because if we lynch you and you

do

turn out to be scum, there's the possibility that I wouldn't be around tomorrow to make it.

To your credit, I like the point you've made about LML accusing you of Crap Logic when you haven't actually expressed much more than gut feelings. Throwing the term around when it's not especially appropriate smacks of overreaction to an accusation. But that's certainly not enough for me to consider voting him.

[Axelrod]

Actually, I can think of a reason for Leonidas' votes going the way they have, without him being a Cop (and it doesn't make sense for him to be a Cop as Stoofer was "immune" to Cops). But if I'm right, there's not a whole lot I can do about it. He would then be making a logical guess based on the evidence he has. He happens to be wrong in my case, but it would not be a malicious error. That would be unfortunate if it turns out to be what happened.

[the silent speaker]

How would NOT being on the Olio wagon be indicitive of someone being scum when Olio turned out to be a townie?

Uh, no. You have it backwards -- being on the oliowagon I'm taking as indicative of NOT being scum. Being on the Saberwagon day one I'm also taking as fairly indicative of not being scum. From there I'm looking for people who do not have either indication of not being scum -- not because they are any scummier for not being on the bandwagons, but because the people who were on them have been ruled out.

What I'm basically getting out of it is "everyone's kind of suspicious, but I believe MeMe -- who's also suspicious."

Essentially the second day's voting patterns were little help and somewhat undermined the conclusions I had drawn from the first day's wagons. That part of my post I was working out as I typed. It's not "everyone's kind of suspicious", more of "These are the three people I find most suspicious -- but less so than I did at nightfall; these two people I find less suspicious than the first three; these two I don't think are suspicious for other reasons, but from a strictly vote-pattern vantage they match the profile and should be included for completeness's sake. The rest don't fit the profile at all."

I'm still missing where the "two more scum to bag tomorrow" comment is explained. Specifically: who are these two scum if Kitty had been a baddie? Who are they now that we know she wasn't? And what did you mean by "more" when, at that point, we'd yet to bag any scum?

I was counting Kitty for one, Stoofer for another (if, as happened, SK was town,) Fuldu (if Kitty had been scum especially) and I think Nanook for the last one.

what I'd really like to know is why, given that SaberKitty wasn't scum, his suspicion of me doesn't seem to have lessened.

It has lessened. If SK had been scum I would have been banging the drums for your head. Instead I rate you fourth or fifth, and I'm much less sure of even the top of my list than I would have been of you had SK been evil. The big giving-me-pause thing is that we have a whole mafia family to root out, so we could easily

have

four more scum.

[rolandofthewhite]

I died. How sad.

[Axelrod]

Since I said I would, here's what I got on LmL. I actually did a full PBPA, but it was way, way long (yes, longer than this). These are the highlights more or less:

Vote: Axelrod

First day killing speculations never sit well with me.

Bah. First double post.

There could still easily be an SK, no? Lucky doc protect? Roleblocker catching lightning in a bottle?

First two posts. Not much to see here. He jumps on me for "speculating" (which is more or less meaningless) and then immediately speculates (to show that

my

speculation could be wrong?) Which is silly since I was just speculating anyway, and it was obvious that no one really knew what happened yet. A bit serious for this early in the game?

Maybe I was just making a mountain out of a mohill. Who knows.

This is after a few people (Fuldu, TSS) have questioned him about his comments towards me. LmL seems quick to back down.

I will, as well, Unvote: Axelrod and Vote: Vesuvan.

I'm still very wary of Axelrod, however, due to posts prought up in the thread and overall scummy behaviour, I believe this vote is safe.

Reminder: My vote is #8 - This may be a stellar time for a claim.

Not vote #8. Actually #9 (DP error).

Jumps #9 on the Vesuvan wagon (although the vote count was wrong and he could, in fact, have thought it was

only

#8.) Doesn't justify the Vesuvan vote at all beyond simple bandwaggoning. Also makes a point to say he still thinks I am scummy.

Wow. I'm a bit shocked at the speed that this bandwagon is shifting. Just a few points to think about:

• Full props to Vesuvan for his cool-headed play. However, the speed that people unvoted without asking for more info makes me believe that there is a possibility that a few scum could have been on a bandwagon of one of their own, and jumped off after his "I'm really not gonna claim" response. Again, I have no proof of this, just throwing it out there fir you all to think about as a possibility.

• The SK bandwagon has gained speed VERY quickly, which makes me believe that the scum has jumped on. SK has deserved votes based on her action and the "ninth vote facade" after not really showing the rest of day one. However, the relative speed of the formation of this bandwagon is a bit unsettleing.

• As of right now, I'm only going to Unvote: Vesuvan vut in turn I have to keep an eye on him. I will also FoS: SaberKitty for reasons stated above, but as well, FoS: Peacebringer for seeming to be Mr. Bandwagon-starter / jumper.

Here's where is starts to get more interesting. Jumps off of Vesuvan wagon as it loses steam, but tries to keep the suspicion on him (IGMEOY), saying that the people who jumped off first could have been scum trying to protect a fellow scum. Says Saberkitty "deserved" votes, which could be seen as encouraging the wagon, but does not vote Saberkitty himself, instead "FOSing".

I'm going to Vote: Olio on the pure strength of Vesuvan's statements.

The quote I find most damning is...

It's not about a townie being bandwagonned period, and the fact you're trying to make it so looks like you're trying to make it appear that I'm making an argument that I'm not. Further, despite my offer to discuss the strategy in principle elsewhere, you're carrying it on here. My only conclusion from this is that you're trying to make me look like scum because of my refusal to claim, and as I previously stated, that increases my suspicion that you are scum.

If a townie, power role or otherwise, is under a bandwagon for weak reasoning, claiming should not be the answer to get the bandwagon off them. Claiming should be a last resort, whether for a vanilla townie or a power role.

You're absolutely right, and I believe an Olio bandwagon sounds about right now.

Woah. So in the span of three posts, he has gone from Voting for Vesuvan (when the bandwagon is hot); to Unvoting while FOSing (when the bandwagon has lost it's steam); to Voting

someone else

(now a known townie) "on the pure strength of Vesuvan's statements." Whence comes this great turnaround? Besides the fact that he's following bandwagons. This is probably the most suspicious sequence of posts he has made.

PBug should get his butt back to the thread to see he's about to be lynched. I'm not going to ask the mod to prod him when he, himself, has abandoned this game. It's bothersome.

Here's the deal. PBug's at 9 votes. Time for me to see if he's posted anywhere on the site since he his last post. Be back in a few minutes.

Here he appears to be pushing the PBug wagon without actually voting, by emphazising the "lurking."

Well, he has posted in the V/LA thread saying he was gonna be gone for a week and will be back on Monday.

But, in his defense, he also immediately posts that PBug has said he will be away.

I wouldn't... but I'm curious to know why you asked.

Roland has just asked if we would consider "Mith" to be a scummy rolename. This sounds a bit like fishing. On the other hand, it was fairly obvious to me what Roland was saying here. LmL is smart, does he really not get it? If he

does

get it, what was the point of this question.

There was not much to go on this game... but now, I feel we can create a viable bandwagon here.

Unvote: Nox, Vote: Someone

TSS is at least posting and trying to get things going in a positive way. By the quotew you just made, you're trying to dissuade anyone listening to TSS's reasoning and the such. There are two differing possibilities for this, being that you're scum....

1) You're scum, trying to get people away from Axelrod's bandwagon.
2) You're scum, trying to distance yourself from this bandwagon so you can say "HA! I wasn't on that innocent's bandwagon!"

As of this exact moment, I am more sure of a Someone lynch that a Axelrod lynch. Just me. If someone gives me a reason to change my vote / unvote, i'll let you know

Jumps 4th on the Someone wagon.

First - Stoofer, my assumptions were on the inkling that Someone is scum. However, more on this will be elaborated on later in this post.

Secondly - I'm somewhat questioning the Someone bandwagon at this point, mainly for the quote listed below:
Commodore Amazing wrote:
unvote: Axelrod, vote: Someone to keep it close at 5 and 5.


Ugh. Can another player call me paranoid now? This post REALLY bothered me, and I hope it bothers everyone else too.

Incredible FoS: Commodore Amazing AND Nox

I mean, seriously. Why would someone justify a MAJOR vote like that (to even the score WHILE WE ARE APPROACHING DEADLINE. At this point in time, I do not have DP's ruleset in front of me, but I have played in games in which a tie vote as such leads to a no lynch and ultimately bad news for the town.

If Someone comes up innocent, I will find this post to be incredibly suspect and incredibly difficult to comprehend. Could it be that both Commodore and Nox are scum together?

I think I just may be a little bit paranoid right now. Quite a possibility. However, we're late in the day and we don't have the time to start a Commodore bandwagon again.

Moral of this longwinded post? If need be, I'll be happy to switch my vote to Nox before the deadline, unless the townies (more than a few) tell me i'm being paranoid

There's nothing obviously wrong with this. Commodore's vote was somewhat suspicious, as was the way Commodore was jumping from one player to the other at the end of the day.

Seems happy with either a Someone or a Nox lynch at this point.

Someone, gimme some MS history...

Is Polarbear even around now? Never seen his name before.

Subtly questioning Nox's claim? While at the same time keeping the vote on Someone after Someone has already self-voted and the wagon on him is fading.

Since our Mod is DP, I might as well start by saying the following:

Quote:
If you are bandwagoned and a plain townie, bite the bullet. The contitunal claiming only gives the mafia more info about the setup.


After much consideration, i'm going to Unvote: Someone and Vote: Saberkitty with a dash of FoS: Nox

With that, I'm concerned about the following:

1) Saberkitty's absense... especially while she got out of a bandwagon by claiming that OTHERS were not posting.

2) Nox, Someone, Vesuvan... At this point in time, the one claim that doesn't sit well with me is Polarboy... being originally from the GL, I know that majority of the people who would be in this variant. On my list of 30, Polarboy was nowhere in sight.

Here he begins the wagon on Saberkitty, based, it appears, strictly on lurking and hypocrisy because she previously criticized lurkers.

Sorry if i'm a little cynical.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/profile. ... file&u=288

Less than 400 posts? I see he has a sticky topic in one of the forums, but other than that, I can't see why h was included in the setup.

Still appears to be questioning the PolarBoy claim here.

I'll reiterate, and TSS, I think you'll understand this the most.

SaberKitty (the player, not the possible role) has been absent today. Lurkers, in general, hurt the town far more than anything else. At this exact point in time, unless Leo is hinting at "cop", I would go with a SaberKitty lynch over a Stoofer lynch.

However, if Leo's a bit more... explicit.. with his theory, then I'd be willing to change my vote.

I'm not asking you to claim, Leo, I'm just asking for some justification.

He's not asking for a "claim." But wants something more "explicit." And a justification. Ah, I see. I also think he's wrong when he says that lurkers hurt the town "far more than anything else" but that's debatable.

My vote on SaberKitty was the first vote. I didn't feel comfortable with either the Someone or the Nox lynch. I don't see exactly how THAT makes me scummy. Saberkitty was a lurker, and I'm not fond of lurkers. With that, I'm going to FoS: Axelrod for his incredible crap logic there. I wasn't trying to start a bandwagon, instead, I was putting my vote in a place that I thought it was worth. I guess I was wrong.

With that in mind, I'm going to continue my lurker hunt, a la TSS, and Vote: EnterYourNameHere At this point in time, he has not contributed anythimg towards the thread. If he shows up and contributes, or new info comes to light, I will be happy to change my vote, though.

Since when didn't he "feel comfortable" with either Someone or Nox? He was still questioning Nox's claim well after he voted Saberkitty.

He then continues the "lurker" hunt, despite the poor results of the last one. Which is not to say that EYNH doesn't deserve a good hard look, but at this point, one should do it based on the posts already made as opposed to the lack of recent posts.

I fully recognize that these PBPA's can be interpreted many different ways, and that when you go into one looking for evidence you are more likely to convince yourself that you have found it. But I don't like his bandwagoning. I

really

don't like the way his position on Vesuvan flip-flopped so dramatically as the bandwagon failed, to the point that he proceeded to "hide" behind Vesuvan, flattering the strength of his arguments as he got on his next bandwagon.

Now I don't like the way he is targeting lurkers, which is a very easy thing for scum to do, and also to justify, without having to worry about risking a conflict with a member of the town.

So that's why my vote is where it is right now. That plus he's in the more suspicious group I listed earlier.

Fuldu, I'm really getting tired of explaining myself, but since you continuously misunderstand or misstate: I made that list of the eight most "suspicious" by

eliminating

the least suspicious. Not by trying to put forward any kind of comprehensive case against any of them. I thought that was clear. Criticizing me for giving "very little" basis for my suspicion is therefore simply meaningless. Do you disagree with my list of the "most" clear. If you don't, then you implicitly agree with what I am saying (except you put me on the list too, which is your perogative.) If you think someone I am listing as more clear really isn't, then you should say

that

. Nothing helps the town like taking a stand.

[Fuldu]

Fuldu, I'm really getting tired of explaining myself, but since you continuously misunderstand or misstate: I made that list of the eight most "suspicious" by eliminating the least suspicious. Not by trying to put forward any kind of comprehensive case against any of them. I thought that was clear. Criticizing me for giving "very little" basis for my suspicion is therefore simply meaningless. Do you disagree with my list of the "most" clear. If you don't, then you implicitly agree with what I am saying (except you put me on the list too, which is your perogative.) If you think someone I am listing as more clear really isn't, then you should say that. Nothing helps the town like taking a stand.

Do you not see the difference that I'm trying to point to? You have a list of eight people for whom you feel greater suspicion but regarding whom you have little concrete evidence to present. You then immediately follow that up with a single concrete argument against two of them. To my mind, that clearly implies a greater degree of suspicion regarding those two, or at least it ought to. The comment I made about having very little basis for your suspicion was not a criticism so much as it was an attempt at a comparison between what you were saying about the eight and what you were saying about the two. I will admit to having criticized the quality of the second argument, since it basically relies on Mafia both knowing the identity of the SK and having some reason to protect him.

But more tellingly, the argument you've chosen to respond to is the one that I explicitly said didn't contribute to my opinion of you as scum. It's an argument about linkages, which only means something if we have additional information about one of the players being linked. I think you're scum because of the way you're fishing for information. All of what you've responded to in the quoted paragraph is about the highly secondary question of whether MeMe is scum with you.

[Vesuvan]

Wow... Axelrod has been studying my playbook from the Misetings games! Just add a little dramatic flair at certain points and that could have been one of my posts.

Thing is, I'm pretty used to picking flaws in these sort of arguments too. The number of misrepresentations in Axelrod's PBPA is rather telling. If requested I'll go through and highlight them in detail, but I suspect that a lot of people here would prefer fewer rather than more long posts. For quick reference, I'm looking mostly at the analysis of posts 107, 163 (esp. in conjunction with 8&9), 189 (in conjunction with 190), 279, 384, 388 (in conjunction with 354). The only ones I found particularly accurate and relevant were 405 and 436.

Do you not see the difference that I'm trying to point to? You have a list of eight people for whom you feel greater suspicion but regarding whom you have little concrete evidence to present. You then immediately follow that up with a single concrete argument against two of them. To my mind, that clearly implies a greater degree of suspicion regarding those two, or at least it ought to. The comment I made about having very little basis for your suspicion was not a criticism so much as it was an attempt at a comparison between what you were saying about the eight and what you were saying about the two. I will admit to having criticized the quality of the second argument, since it basically relies on Mafia both knowing the identity of the SK and having some reason to protect him.

But more tellingly, the argument you've chosen to respond to is the one that I explicitly said didn't contribute to my opinion of you as scum. It's an argument about linkages, which only means something if we have additional information about one of the players being linked. I think you're scum because of the way you're fishing for information. All of what you've responded to in the quoted paragraph is about the highly secondary question of whether MeMe is scum with you.

Wow... I'm agreeing with Fuldu twice in one day of a thread! Anyway, it's another point I've noticed in regards to Axelrod. I'm also noticing something of a two-tone playstyle of either following other peoples' opinions without putting forward much of his own, or trying to lead the town, but with very little middle-ground.

I'm still suspicious of MeMe for reasons stated yesterday (and no I can't substantiate it any more than I did then), but I can actually substantiate my reasons for thinking Axelrod is scum.

Unvote: MeMe
Vote: Axelrod

IGMEOY: MeMe

[Nox]

This is just a note, I am infact still here. Yes I'm lurking, I just don't really have much to say but to express gut feelings. I

would

go into deeper analysis as to why my views are as such, but forgive me, my brain isnt exactly thinking right right now. My best friend is in the hospital, having just gone through surgery to remove a cancerous tumor the size of a small football out of her stomach. Anyways, back to business.

For not only gut feelings, but also because or pre-mentionned (I think it was yesterday) arguments, I still infact think that Commodore Amazing is scum. It's my best option as of now.

One has to remark that he was pressing for Stoofer yesterday. Apparently, he follows Leo's votes. Now, you might say "But stoofer wasnt town!". No, he wasnt. But he was not mafia either. Mafia perceived Stoofer as town, so if CA is infact Mafia as I presume he is, him blindly following Leo's votes indicates one of two things:

He might be trying to hide behind Leo, if Leo is town.

Both he and Leo may be scum.

Either way, if Commodore Amazing is scum, then it would imply that Axelrod is town. It would be easy for CA to jump on Leo's (apparently unsupported :S)bandwagon as soon as he sees that an innocent is beeing targeted. As Stoofer appeared town in mafia's viewpoint, the same has probably happened yesterday, as CA pressed for Stoofer's lynch.

As for everyone else, here are my current suspicions/feelings etc towards them.


1. Someone - I believe his claim.
3. NanookTheWolf - ... I really have nothing to say on his case. Something is not

quite

right, but I can't pinpoint it. I'll get back on this later.
4. MeMe - As of yesterday, I had suspicions about MeMe, though most of em are now appeased.
5. The Shadow -Has been lurking, therefore disables any proper read :s.
7. LoudmouthLee - His lurker hunt having failed once, he starts another. Highly scummy in my opinion.
9. Vesuvan - Up to now, I'm feeling sort of neutral. Doesn't seem like scum, but I won't confirm he's town :s
10. Fuldu - If axelrod is town, I think Fuldu is scum. I tend to agree with Axelrod when he says Fudu criticizes him, no matter what he does. What is slightly suspicious is that no one else has received asharsh of a criticism from him. Then again, he might have info.
12. PeaceBringer - Hey_herb claim believable, though we've yet to hear about his "visions"
14. Leonidas - Lack of content XD. All he does is vote, plus he lurks alot. Seems scummy. I wont clear the possibility of him and CA beeing masons, though its rather unlikely. I have a bad feeling on both their cases.
15. AxelRod - I have mixed feelings. My guts tell me he's town, but with the new evidence presented, I'm not sure anymore.
16. EnterYourNameHere - Lurker, not sure :s
18. the silent speaker - As Someone said, it's hardly believable that you would be scum after those posts :s.....


I'll end this with a

Vote: Commodore Amazing