DP12 JeepFest Mafia GAME OVER

[NanookTheWolf]

That's something that I could believe if it were done early on in the game .. (Like post 1, not #12)

Vote: Axelrod

It seems as though you thought you be caught sooner or later, and finally came to a conclusion that you would need a claim, and so did so ..

[MeMe]

Antrax = Doctor? Um...

vote: Axelrod

[Axelrod]

I don't know what to say to that. I suppose I could say that I deliberately didn't do it in my first post because first posts get scrutinized more and I didn't want to mafia to discover it. But the truth is I didn't think of it until later. It

was

Day One and I wasn't under any particular suspicion, so I don't see why you'd say I came to the conclusion at that point that I would need a claim later.

But anyway, I fully realize that post doesn't prove anything, as mafia are quite capable of posting false claims and/or hints. The only thing it "proves" is that I staked a claim day one, before any other roles were known/revealed.

[MeMe]

HAH!

Pull up all of Axelrod's posts alone and something very interesting happens! You see the "DOC" post he quotes above...and directly preceding it (though it was more than 24 hours prior and separated by several posts by others) you'll see this one...

C

ouldn't they both be mafia?

O

bviously, bandwagoning is just one way to catch a scum, and on Day one it's far from reliable.

P

Bug has been just as bad as Someone, however, and I wouldn't be adverse to throwing a vote that way, although I will refrain at the moment.

Silly, sloppy boy.

[Commodore Amazing]

MeMe, I just hugged my computer monitor and kissed your little green avatar.

[Fuldu]

Oh, MeMe, that's lovely.

And now that I don't foresee Axelrod wriggling out, I'm going to go a little meta- on this discussion. Can anyone point me to a single instance, in any mafia game, ever, where early hinting at a role like this turned out to be a good thing? Because I can think of at least two instances where I've been scum and another player has obligingly let me know that they're the cop or the doc so that I could kill them (in one case they turned out to be the SK, but still, not good for them). And I can't think of a single time that I've been pro-town where I've found myself more inclined to believe a claim because it was clued early on than I would be if they'd simply come out with it at the time of the bandwagon. Even without MeMe's discovery, I wouldn't have believed it here. Every time I see it, this type of hinting seems increasingly like stupid play. So how is it

supposed

to work?

[Dragon Phoenix]

Vote count, 8 to kick someone out, 4 at deadline Friday 8PM GMT:

Axelrod 6 (Fuldu, Leonidas, Commodore Amazing, Vesuvan, MeMe, Nanook)
Commodore Amazing 3 (Nox, The Shadow, Axelrod)
The Shadow 1 (TSS)

[Fuldu]

Crap, roland never told us who mith is, did he? If Axelrod turns out to be both Antrax and scum, to my mind there's an excellent chance that mith is scum with him, thus increasing the value to that team of killing off roland before he can give that identity away.

[Commodore Amazing]

Several of the actual participants of JeepFest are left out of the players, something the baddies are aware of. This should spoil any suggestions of an early mass claim.

I am assuming Antrax was one of the names DP left out. If rolando were still alive, it's possible he'd know whether or not Axelrod was lying or not about being Antrax. Hence, the scum killed him. rolando did not tell us who mith was, but I assume mith is a good guy.

[Axelrod]

Wow. That's incredible. I really can't believe that happened. I fully realize it's too much to expect anyone to believe that's a coincidence. I have just shot the town in it's collective foot. Now anyone can vote for me with no reprecusions at all, and even when I am shown to be town, no one can be blamed. This is really bad.

My final thought then is this. If I am to die (which I understand), let CA do it tonight. By vigging me tonight he proves his ability (unless the mafia decides to skip the kill to try and "frame" him, which they wouldn't do, and even if they did, it's one less town death.) I would also get a last shot protection out of the deal, unlikely as it would be to do any good. There's not too much downside that I see, unless you believe I have some special ability which I would be able to use to benefit the mafia before I die. I haven't seen any evidence of mafia abilities yet, but I know it's possible.

Unvote, Vote: No Lynch

Sorry guys.

What makes Antrax not a likely Doc anyway? I have no idea who he is.

[NanookTheWolf]

HAH!

Pull up all of Axelrod's posts alone and something very interesting happens! You see the "DOC" post he quotes above...and directly preceding it (though it was more than 24 hours prior and separated by several posts by others) you'll see this one...

C

ouldn't they both be mafia?

O

bviously, bandwagoning is just one way to catch a scum, and on Day one it's far from reliable.

P

Bug has been just as bad as Someone, however, and I wouldn't be adverse to throwing a vote that way, although I will refrain at the moment.

Silly, sloppy boy.

Meme,

I love you! ..

Just don't tell Dirge ..

Nice try Axelrod, and how coincidental that was I'm sure ..

I'd rather have the vig use his ability on someone else, then on confirmed scum

[the silent speaker]

The first thing I'll say is that CA is as cleared as he can get without a cop declaring him innocent. No one else stepped up to claim the kill, and it has all the earmarks of a vigging.

Axelrod... well, you're right, I don't believe that was coincidental. And Nanook speaks true, if you were creating a day 1 hint that was not the time to do it. Fuldu is also correct that it seldom helps to create that kind of hint unless you intend for it to be found out -- and real docs want to hide. So I have to say that this seems like you were setting up evidence as insurance against later accusations. The one thing I don't understand is why you prepared two alibis, unless you intended to claim whichever one had someone die in it first.
The fact that you tried to save yourself with Cmdr. A's hide

after he made an unassailable claim

is no less worrisome.
Finally, since there was a defense he would have made if innocent, and he

didn't make it

when confronted with his contradiction. Had his 'doc post' been a hint, he could have called attention to the fact that he said "hint" in that very post, which distinguishes it from the presumably coincidental post preceding. (There is no way that could have been coincidence too, because he would have been especially careful of his words in it.) Instead he apologized for his blunder.

Unvote: The Shadow, vote: Axelrod

.

[LoudmouthLee]

Oh, MeMe, that's lovely.

And now that I don't foresee Axelrod wriggling out, I'm going to go a little meta- on this discussion. Can anyone point me to a single instance, in any mafia game, ever, where early hinting at a role like this turned out to be a good thing? Because I can think of at least two instances where I've been scum and another player has obligingly let me know that they're the cop or the doc so that I could kill them (in one case they turned out to be the SK, but still, not good for them). And I can't think of a single time that I've been pro-town where I've found myself more inclined to believe a claim because it was clued early on than I would be if they'd simply come out with it at the time of the bandwagon. Even without MeMe's discovery, I wouldn't have believed it here. Every time I see it, this type of hinting seems increasingly like stupid play. So how is it

supposed

to work?

First,

Vote: Axelrod

Next, Fuldu, I once coded Phoebus's name into my first post, as he was my mason partner.

That saved the game for me, actually, rather than tipping off the scum. I didn't post my role, but my partner.

Interesting stuff.

As for this, MeMe's find makes Axel the correct lynch for today. Sloppy play all around.

[Dragon Phoenix]

And we have a pre-deadline lynch!

Exit Axelrod. He was as he claimed Antrax. He also was, in spite of his other two hidden claims, a scumbag.

Night falls, choices before Monday 8PM GMT.

[Dragon Phoenix]

DAY 4
Big celebrations all around yesterday evening after you found out that you have eliminated a scumbag. Big hangovers this morning, and finding Vesuvan with a shotwound does not improve the situation. He was Phoebus, a simple townie. After you have him transported to the hospital, it's time to see whether you can strike gold twice in as many days. Twelve of you still around, seven to kick one out.

[MeMe]

I'm eager to hear PeaceBringer's trip (if he took one).

And if Leo's got something -- well, I'll just say my ears are open wider to him now than they were yesterday.

[MeMe]

@ Leo (I think...if I'm right, he'll know what I mean)

[mikehart]

bleh, i can't believe i still haven't read the thread. i will read the current alive players post to make it easier though.

[Commodore Amazing]

Okay, MeMe has essentially claimed. I'm curious what the extent of her abilities are, though she probably knows better whether to tell us what they are or not.

I'm very inclined to trust Leo, Fuldu, and (to some extent) MeMe here. Fuldu went after Axelrod pretty hard in the first and third days. LoudmouthLee went after Axelrod pretty hard earlier this game. He either got lucky that no one went along with him, or he's probably clean too.

My number one person to lynch is Nox. She went after me when Axelrod was getting votes yesterday. Axelrod was also eager to accept Vesuvan's, Someone's, and Nox's claims. Axelrod also joined a Someone bandwagon to save (?) Nox.

I'm going to wait to hear from the other power roles / confirmed good guys before I vote.

I did not attempt to vig anyone last night.

[LoudmouthLee]

My number one person to lynch is Nox. She went after me when Axelrod was getting votes yesterday. Axelrod was also eager to accept Vesuvan's, Someone's, and Nox's claims. Axelrod also joined a Someone bandwagon to save (?) Nox.

That's an interesting point. I do not (assuming that the name claims that were given were accurate, as Axel's was) see a correlation between Antrax and MattV, or Antrax or Polarboy (who, I'm sorry, I still* have no clue who that is)

I was thinking that it might have been an overseas (Non-US) thing, but looking back, Mackay (Aussie) and Tally (Kiwi) were both pro-town.

Maybe I'm looking too hard for a correlation. Who wasn't on the Axelrod bandwagon?

[LoudmouthLee]

As of right now, my thought process is:

Vote: The Shadow

And that's for a number of reasons.

#1) Genuinely lurky play. Has not contributed much of anything at all.
#2) Non-vote on Axelrod, our first Mafia caught.
#3) A vote, instead, on CA, who, as TSS says (and I wholeheartedly agree...)

The first thing I'll say is that CA is as cleared as he can get without a cop declaring him innocent. No one else stepped up to claim the kill, and it has all the earmarks of a vigging.

So, knowing that, there were two others, besides Axel, who had a vote on CA. One was The Shadow, and the last deserves another

FoS: Nox

[the silent speaker]

Well, so much for the "no one on the oliowagon is scum" theory.

My thoughts on everybody:
1. Someone -- okay, is there anyone still alive who

doesn't

believe him?
3. NanookTheWolf -- voted fifth for the Axe Lord, which clears him some.
4. MeMe -- as I said before, either never always trust MeMe or never trust MeMe. I believe her to be town.
5. The Shadow -- more on him later, when I vote for him.
7. LoudmouthLee -- very likely town.
10. Fuldu -- his presence on the Axewagon when he didn't have to be is another point in his favor.
12. PeaceBringer -- I don't know what to make of his claim. File him under "maybe".
14. Leonidas -- seems to be our blocker, and thus town.
16. EnterMikehart'sNameHere -- I recall finding EYNH rather scummy before, and most of the remaining alives are people I find specifically not, but we can spare him the rope to hang himself.
17. Commodore Amazing -- almost certainly town.
18. the silent speaker -- you tell me.
20. Nox -- has claimed and

wasn't

horribly scummy, but there's her voting yesterday to consider, too. Another maybe.

Voting patterns, tempered now with the knowledge that Axelrod was scum:
I. Axelrod on day 1 voted olio and Someone, and no other main bandwagons. Olio had Leonidas, Someone, and Vesuvan, all of whom have given good enough accounts of themselves in my eyes that I'm not willing to be part of a lynch of any; me, who I'm obviously against lynching; and PeaceBringer, whose claim is still in the air to me but would be the only one gleaned from that particular bandwagon. Interestingly enough, PB

was

voting Axelrod briefly but unvoted as soon as he claimed. PB's full voting record on day 3: voted Commodore in post 511; his next post, 516, he unvoted in Axelrod's favor; post 520, unvoted the Axe Lord. None of those three posts contained anything in the way of content aside from the votes themselves, unless you count his mentioning that he entertained the idea of visions being related to avatars but discarded it as it would require detailed knowledge of them and any changes in them. All in all, PB looks scummier than townier from this.
II. Axelrod's other bandwagon, Someone, had on it Someone (presumed town), Nanook, The Shadow, and Fuldu. Nanook and Fuldu, of those, voted Axelrod yesterday, which tends to clear them; I lean slightly toward Fuldu being more cleared by it than Nanook, owing to where on the bandwagon they were, but The Shadow is by far the most interesting of the three.
III. On day 2, Axelrod voted: yes for Someone, no for Nox, and no for both Stoofer and Kitty. Looky looky looky: The Shadow had

exactly the same voting pattern

! The only other two people to decline both the dueling bandwagons at end of day were EYNH and PB -- another strike against them. It looks like the scum were content to sit that one out. (Though to be fair, if PeaceBringer is what he claims, he *couldn't* vote.) Nanook and Fuldu both differ in three points, which also conts in their favor.
IV. Axelrod didn't want to lynch Nox, and on day 3 Nox returned the favor, the only person besides The Ever Shadowier Shadow and temporarily PB to vote the competing bandwagon. Otherwose her voting record is unremarkable; she did start the prebably scum-riddled PBuG wagon, but she used reasonable logic to do it, and differed in two of the three day 2 bandwagons not her own from Axelrod's pattern. Looking back, though, I found this post of Nox's very

very

interesting:

Well, the crosses, then distorted crossed does not seem to be anything good.
Reminds me of something you think is good, but in reality isnt.

The symbolism doesnt seem to be role related though.

(Bolding mine.) It doesn't? How do you know, pray? If you're pro-town, you don't know what Mikehart's role name is to judge one way or the other!

Overall,

vote: The Shadow, FOS PB and Nox

. Probably The Shadow and two of PB, Nox and Mikehart are our baddies (Mikehart would be in the FOS but we need to hear more from him before sending him to his scummy doom); I provisionally move Nanook and Fuldu to the "probable town" pile with everybody else already in it.

[PeaceBringer]

Sorry, missed the end of the day and didn't get a trip in.

I give a WTH to TSS on his FOS.

I am currently in dallas and haven't been checking MS much since end of last week. Feel free to check.

[Vesuvan]

[The Shadow]

@TSS: Personally, I don't think lynching me would be a good idea.

A: I always lurk. It's a bad habit of mine. Sorta a fondness of dark places and silence...

B: Your voting patterns are partially twisted because they lack a detail called online time. I was not here when Axelrod was getting himself killed. The other problem with your voting pattern is I'm generally not that careless (I like to think, anyhow) as scum to vote the same as my partner.

C: I'm not scum. So...it seems kinda silly to lynch a guy on the town's side. At least that's how it seems to me. I always thought the point of the game was lynching the bad guys. Something we haven't done so well this far.

D: For all your posting, TSS, I saw nothing until Axelrod was basically dead where you actually considered him scum. Why is that? I suppose most of the others really didn't either, but right before PB gave his trip info there was some talk on Axel and you completely ignored it then.

I know it's not generally wise to reflect suspicion on a guy voting you...but, well, it's because he was accusing me that I was checking that up.

Vote: The Silent Speaker

because at this point in time he's top of my most-likely-to-be-scum list.