Open 193 - Friends and Enemies: It's over!

[VP Baltar]

VP, I know this is a bit late, but I'm a bit curious as to your thought process behind this:

I think I will try to do Troll next since if I was committed to DDD scum, my gut says Troll is his most likely partner.

Well, as I said, it was largely a gut feeling and that would be something I definitely need to corroborate with evidence in thread to firmly believe it. If you want actual reasoning behind it, I think they have been a bit soft on one another, particularly in the Troll-->DDD direction, which I pointed out in my iso of Troll. He claims I'm reading it incorrectly, so I guess I need to review it again and see if I am, but I don't think that's really the case.

Addiontally, I don't know if I see honesty in their voting. Their reasoning hasn't been the best imo (DDD toward Reck was almost too certain and Troll toward Charlatan doesn't jive for me).

If the scum team started as DDD/Troll/(Scien)xRECKONERx, then I believe ABR would have been correct in Day 2 being deliberately chosen to make Reck a sacrificial lamb.


Working on hito iso now. And I also just finished my first lemon chiffon cake. Talk about being productive.

[VP Baltar]

hitogoroshi

:

I'm firmly in Troll's boat when it comes to hito's iso mega-posting. Unfortunately for him, I think he's painted himself into a meta corner of the giant iso posts when he replaces, so I think he'd do it as town or scum. I'm just going to sum up what I see his alignment reads as being upon replacing in:

ABR

- confused on his iso, but ends up voting him after checking everyone out

Amished

- was already confirmed town, but says he doesn't believe in the replacement scumtell because it would hit him as town if used.

charlatan

- also confirmed town already. Says he agrees with one point against me and one against Troll made my charlie

DDD

- neutral. doesn't like his play, but likes his vote on Reckoner

Ojanen

- ? I guess he seems to have a townish read. He thinks she makes an ok case against him, but wants her to stop voting there. I dunno, this iso seems muddled.

Porkchopexpress

- says he liked PCE's Sando suspicion and he's confirmed town to himself obv.

Sando

- scum. Says he wasn't doing much of anything and his voting (particularly on PCE) sucked a big one.

xRECKONERx

- loves the RECKONER wagon and the fact that confirmed townies loved it....but he doesn't think it's better than Sando, so...yeah.

SerialClergyman

- neutralish? likes some of SC's posts, but feels uneasy about him.

Vi

- ? thinks her Day 1 content is "bland", but Day 2 is better particularly her attacks on Sando.

VP Baltar

- not sure on his read of me, but likes my ABR vote at that time.

Zorblag

- townish? likes some of his posting, but is having a hard time getting a read on him. \

After the iso spectacular, hito makes some weird comments about having no town reads (which I don't like), not thinking he can get Sando lynched and therefore not voting him (which I don't like), likes DDD/Sando/ABR wagons (which is fine), and still likes reck but it's too early to end the day (which is so-so).

hito pushes on ABR in a way that seems relatively genuine. He attacks him for not following through on Reckoner, which I also felt at the time was scummy despite ABR's love affair with hyperbole. Of course, all of that banks on Reckoner scum who hito had yet to vote for at that point.

He repeatedly lets out the mantra of "Reck shouldn't be the only wagon today", which I can get down with but he says it A LOT and that's a touch strange/sounds a bit like stalling.

Then we get it again in iso 10:

As I said from the start, it's hard not to like a Reck lynch when confirmed townies love it so, but this resistance to an ABR lynch is something I want to push at now, rather than defer to.

But by the next day, hito feels that no one is listening to him about ABR (though he didn't SAY anything else for people to hear) and he's ready to put Reck at L-1:

I'm kind of aggravated that while I feel ABR came off greatly for the worse in that exchange everyone else seems inclined to pretend it never happened because his vote is back on Reck. That being said, lynching Reck is a hell of a consolation prize so I'm not as mad as I normally would be.

Vi, I'll probably be with you tomorrow on that Sando lynch (I'm gonna re-read him tonight with his most recent posts in mind). But for now, what the hell:

unvote, vote: Reckoner

I could read this as forced and settling for a bus after failing to gain traction elsewhere.

Day 3 hito continues the ABR + Sand = Scumz4life tune, which reading in iso seems like he's really in a rut. I can't necessarily tell if it's a town rut or a scum rut, however.

Today he's got Albert B. Rampage and Sando still listed as his top suspects but he chooses not to vote at all at the start because voting for Albert B. Rampage would be a waste of his vote because the wagon wouldn't get going yesterday and Sando isn't current around to defend himself. I just don't buy it. How is voting for Albert B. Rampage more a waste of a vote than not voting at all at this point. If he's all over an Albert B. Rampage lynch (which I still don't think is a good move) then there's really no good reason at all not to rest his vote there while he's seeing what others do.

The reason is that as soon as I vote for someone, having an 'unvote, vote X' will give the impression that I think X is more scummy than ABR, when in truth ABR is still my top suspect and I'm only not voting him because nothing will come of it at the moment.

I think Troll brings up a good point here about hito's hesitance and hito's response is less than understandable.

**Side question for hito, have you felt intimdated by this player list at all during this game?

After starting the day with ABR/Sando as scum that hito can't vote for, he comes in late on the SC wagon and puts him at L-1 after having no reasoning whatsoever. I had sort of forgotten about this, but I'm glad I was reminded of it in this iso.

After this, I push on hito after I meta'ed Reckoner which starts a wagon on him. It gets good traction and then we get THE MECHANISM. I mean, I still still think this is one of the most insane things I have heard in a mafia game, and now that ABR has flipped town it basically confirms it is insanity at best. The question is if scum would come up with something THAT contrived and put in all that effort to save their skin. hito and SC were both at L-2 at the time and hito wasn't on SC's wagon, so why would he as scum go to all that trouble to try and defuse both their wagons instead of getting a viable SC mislynch?

What also gives me major hesitation about calling hito scum for that is how much he brought up his own lynch. That's a narrow line for scum to walk on and most would err on the side of caution in that regard. Sure, a scum might say something like 'When I flip town..blah blah blah', but they don't often ask to be lynched.

Let's assume I'm lynched. SC is more or less confirmed town. ABR could be doing another Reck-level bus, of course, but I just don't see that at all in his interactions with SC. The one switch made sense with a scumbuddy relationship (from 'wanna go? Right now?' to 'probably town') but I just don't see this events with an ABR/SC scumteam. The mechanism is the only interpretation of these events that I can find possible.

On the other hand, hito is also a touch over the top with all of it and could be scum feeling pressure that wasn't necessarily there. ie:

This is more or less a death sentence for me. While I dearly hope the town can see my points now, pragmatism tells me nothing will come of it because I've long since been yelling in to the wind regarding Albert. I did not vote for Albert at the start of the day because I knew it would do nothing, and I vote him here knowing it will probably do nothing and with it doing I will be the only viable option for a lynch.

But that's fine. Because the difference is when I go town, my dead hand will not be pointing at the heart of the other popular wagon. I'll be pointing at scum.

Basically, I really need to hear from hito today now that ABR has flipped town. I know you don't want to do wall posts and all of that, which is fine, but I need to hear who you actually think is scum and some damn good reasons why after the big fuss you made about your theory being the only possible explanation.

Now, I will say on the other (third?) hand that hito did sort of play the "Reck's big time scum" card quite awhile yesterday without voting. It gives me a bit of pause, but it is plausible that it came from town.


As I said, I had nothing against a Reck wagon but I don't like having a one wagon day most of the time - which I think is justified here, seeing all the content that prolonging the day brought out.

I want to come back to this, what do you think was the most pertinent info that came out of that day by you staying off of Reck? I don't really mean this in a revisionist way now that ABR has flipped town, I just wanted to know if you could remember your thoughts from this post.

I still think hito's flip on Sando was weird considering his stance toward him all game prior to that and it wasn't ever explained all that well, but meh.

I like hito's iso 44, but I think I have a strong bias toward believing Troll and DDD are the scum who made Reckoner an early bus for street cred.

---

Overall, I can see hito going either way, but I very slightly lean town on him because some of his posting would be very hard to fake as scum. Complicating this of course is that hito has basically no scum meta and it's hard to see how ballsy he is as scum. I'll need to look closer at the link he provided, but his professed strategy of "look as townie as possible" doesn't really fit with my idea of a crazy gambit like THE MECHANISM would be.

hito hasn't had a great deal of interaction with any of you guys to the point that I can see an obvious buddy for him either, though that doesn't mean it's not plausible. I think the biggest thing I need right now to help me solidify my read on hito is to hear from him who he thinks the scum are and why.

[Vi]

I'm here, but tired.

[VP Baltar]

I was just about to slander Vi for posting a lot in this game and making my final iso dreadful, then I realized I'm about ten times worse.

Oh well, hoping to get to it tonight and then we can get on with the serious discussion. After I finish putting my thoughts out there, hopefully people won't have such an excuse for putting absolutely no effort into this game.

[Head_Honcho]

Debonair Danny DiPietro has been prodded.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'll be back sometime tonight with an actual opinion.

[Vi]

Talking of actual opinions, there's someone else who is going well out of his way to not give any.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Talking of actual opinions, there's someone else who is going well out of his way to not give any.

You mean Trollblag? Glad we're on the same page.

Personally I'm looking at movement and attitudes around his votes and I'm not much liking what I see. He plants his vote early on Charlatan before much of his discussion in regards to him actually happens. By the end of the day he's much more interested in talking about Rec and PCE, but he seems content to sit his vote on Charlatan despite that. Camping on a big day one town lynch, check.

Day two he votes Rec and then simply disappears; VPB may call me hypocritical, but at least I interacted during day two working for position and reads as I tried to lynch Rec. Troll simply votes and then disappears barring one summary of everyone.

And then his D3 play is terribad as well; he's only interested in two people and promptly votes Hito. In ISO 41 he says, "@Vi, my vote is still on hitogoroshi because I think he's still the most likely to be scum." and yet in ISO 43 with no reasons in between the posts he hammers on SC.

And then today we've seen absolutely nothing from him. I'd say his partner is between VPB and Vi and frankly I could be wrong, but I see scum coming from two of those three no matter how it gets cut. If we get a scum lynch I'll make sure to re-read for links, but I don't have any interest in lynching Hito right now.

[Vi]

More or less, yes, we're on the same page.

What changed about hito?

--

I think I'll go ahead and post what I have tomorrow morning.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

More or less, yes, we're on the same page.

What changed about hito?

--

I think I'll go ahead and post what I have tomorrow morning.

I don't like the connections so much anymore; when I was voting him on D3, I had SC and ABR as possible scum partners with a few lesser options. But now those two are gone and I'm not really a fan of Hito/VPB or Hito/Zorblag and Hito/Vi is probably last on my list of pairings.

[Vi]

By "tomorrow morning" I meant "tomorrow night"~
I do have a few more questions to ask though.

For DDD:

I really liked Amished's policy point against Rec

How so?

And then on D3 SC finally started posting in a fashion consistent with my town meta of him

What IS your Town meta of him?

For hito: I'm pretty sure I know the answer to this question already, but could you describe the difference between your scum meta and your Town meta? (Yes, of course this is an uncomfortable question!)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

For DDD:

I really liked Amished's policy point against Rec

How so?

It seemed logical that scum would be much more inclined to go back and evaluate the play of their predecssor than town would be. And like I've said before I don't think I've seen scum ever burn a semi-unique tell like that; so the worst case scenario to me is that it was a logical, good faith effort by a pro-town player. And if that's the worst case then that's a great place to vote, wagon, and lynch.

And then on D3 SC finally started posting in a fashion consistent with my town meta of him

What IS your Town meta of him?

It mostly involves him scrambling and working on a different wavelength from everyone else. His early play just looked too much like that of ABR and VPB for me to be comfortable, bad charlatan lynch on D1; screw around pointlessly on D2 while eventually helping lynch rec. His personal appeal to me that I quoted in my ISO 43 really stood out as right in his wheelhouse and his D3 play looked much like I think his town play did in Commie Mafia now that I think about it and it convinced me he wasn't the best choice for lynching.

~~~

VPB, a question for you and I'd like you to answer starting with the words "That depends".

Do you have the same alignment as Zorblag?

[hitogoroshi]

Sorry for my lack of posting. It's spring break and I've had friends over for days, and it's hard for me to tell them "go hang out alone in the basement, I'm posting in a mafia game!"

Let's hit the questions quick.

**Side question for hito, have you felt intimidated by this player list at all during this game?

Not particularly. I replaced in to this game specifically because of the great player list and flavor text, but that hasn't (at least consciously) ever really translated into being intimidated.

For hito: I'm pretty sure I know the answer to this question already, but could you describe the difference between your scum meta and your Town meta? (Yes, of course this is an uncomfortable question!)

Well I only have one game of scum meta, and I tried to play as closely to my town meta as possible in that game. I think the only difference I can really divine is that I was a little more certain in my scum game than I usually am in town games. Of course, most of my lynches in that game were policy or single-slip lynches that I would have been more certain than usual on as town so I don't know how relevant that difference is.

As for who I think the scum are - I'm still willing to call Vi town, so it's more of a matter of who I think the townie is among DDD, Zorblag, and VP.

Here's a question for you guys - when DDD unvoted SerialClergyman D3, how inevitable was an SC wagon looking? I still think scum were looking to chain mislynches (even though my top candidate for scum was actually just doing lord-knows-what) and both Zorblag and VP had the 'lynch either' mentality. DDD expressed a strong preference for me over SC later in the day - but that's kind of what I would expect IF the scum thought that SC was getting lynched and I was not.

We are in an odd hair-trigger situation where the order of things is important to find scum, but (of course) we can't all wait for someone else to act.

I think the next thing I'm gonna do is look at the recent flare-up between VP and DDD. If I don't think they're scum together, that's a strong justification to vote for Zorblag.

[VP Baltar]

VPB, a question for you and I'd like you to answer starting with the words "That depends".

Do you have the same alignment as Zorblag?

lol, what? I'll give it a shot.

That depends on if I'm clairvoyant or not, which I'm not, so I couldn't tell you for sure. Right now I'm leaning no, but I still have things I need to look in to.

Sorry for my lack of posting. It's spring break and I've had friends over for days, and it's hard for me to tell them "go hang out alone in the basement, I'm posting in a mafia game!"

Some friends! kick them to the curb immediately.

Not particularly. I replaced in to this game specifically because of the great player list and flavor text, but that hasn't (at least consciously) ever really translated into being intimidated.

I was kind of hoping you'd say yes. When I isoed you I felt you were being excessively apologetic for your playing and making a lot of excuses (ADD and the like), so I thought maybe you just felt an excessive need to "perform" in this game. Why so much excuse making then if not for the player list?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Here's a question for you guys - when DDD unvoted SerialClergyman D3, how inevitable was an SC wagon looking? I still think scum were looking to chain mislynches (even though my top candidate for scum was actually just doing lord-knows-what) and both Zorblag and VP had the 'lynch either' mentality. DDD expressed a strong preference for me over SC later in the day - but that's kind of what I would expect IF the scum thought that SC was getting lynched and I was not.

I never unvoted SC because I never voted for SC. On D3 I buzzed a vote past ABR's ear and then unvoted that to vote for you.

[Vi]

Here's a question for you guys - when DDD unvoted SerialClergyman D3, how inevitable was an SC wagon looking? I still think scum were looking to chain mislynches (even though my top candidate for scum was actually just doing lord-knows-what) and both Zorblag and VP had the 'lynch either' mentality. DDD expressed a strong preference for me over SC later in the day - but that's kind of what I would expect IF the scum thought that SC was getting lynched and I was not.

I was the one who unvoted SerialClergyman, precisely because I

didn't

want an SC lynch to be inevitable. So much for that, etc.

My questions to DDD were trying to divine how genuine his previous moves were because of how little he has said throughout the game. I think I'm okay enough atm.
I do like hito's nonvague response to me about his scum meta; I think newbscum would be more "afraid" to answer tbh.
But at this point I'm spoiling my wallpost.

[Vi]

Vi (66)

~ VP Baltar,

Ojanen

,

Scien

Scien (114)

~

Amished,

Vi

, VP Baltar,

charlatan

VP Baltar (239) ~

SerialClergyman

,

ABR

,

Scien

ABR (251)

~

charlatan

, VP Baltar,

Amished

PorkchopExpress (302) ~

Sando, Ojanen

,

Vi

DDD (392) ~

Amished

,

Vi

, PorkchopExpress

charlatan (432)

~

SerialClergyman

, Troll,

ABR

, VP Baltar,

Sando

PorkchopExpress (508) ~

ABR

,

xRx

,

Sando, Ojanen

charlatan (573)

~

SerialClergyman

, Troll, VP Baltar,

Amished

,

Vi

,

ABR

,

xRx

PorkchopExpress (647) ~

Ojanen

,

xRx

,

Sando

xRx (677)

~ DDD, Troll,

SerialClergyman, ABR

,

Vi

ABR (710)

~

SerialClergyman

, VP Baltar, hitogoroshi

xRx (842, 873)

~ DDD, Troll,

VP Baltar

,

ABR

, hitogoroshi,

xRx

, VP Baltar

SerialClergyman (946)

~

Vi

,

Sando

, VP Baltar, hitogoroshi

hitogoroshi (950) ~

ABR, SerialClergyman

, Troll, VP Baltar

SerialClergyman (1173)

~

Sando, ABR

, VP Baltar,

Vi

, Troll

---

Name - Rank/Votes = Quotient (average place on wagons) as of the end of D3

VPB - 33/11 = 3.00
hito - 19/7 - 2.71
Troll - 15/6 = 2.50
Vi - 29/13 = 2.33
DDD - 9/6 = 1.50

---

The three deaths starting from D3 really didn't change anything about my opinions, and neither did the reread. So I put together this wagon analysis and saw how it fit in with things. Not surprisingly, it fit what I was thinking too. I waited to post this today in order to confirm my theory - after I post this, the ensuing conversation will most likely be in the context of this post. I wanted to see where everyone would go on their own... and that, too, has validated my analysis. So this is what I have.

Notice that the only place that DDD shows up on the above wagonalysis is on the xRx wagon. Or in other words, he has not pushed any significant Town wagons. It's very difficult to do that unplanned as scum, simply because sooner or later the risk of joining a wagon will outweigh the reward of getting your Win Condition fulfilled sooner. As mentioned before, his vote record is very much different from Appenine Mafia, where (as he said) he hoed himself out to whatever good wagon he could reasonably justify jumping to. This is not much different from what I was saying D3.

The major caveat here is that I don't like the attitude this knowledge has given him Today.

In this game I’m the only person who hasn’t been voting confirmed town at deadline: you, Vi, and Zorblag were all on the D1 mislynch, PCE was on another town wagon; I was voting for scum. Vi was also voting for a pro-town player on D2 while I helped lynch scum. And on D3 Hito was voting a pro-town player; while VPB, Vi, and Zorblag all contributed to the mislynch. Scumhunting is just the tool to find and lynch scum and by that standard you have absolutely no place to chide me. For all your “scumhunting” you’ve lynched more town than scum; the same cannot be said about me.

...which starts to lend credence to ABR's idea that there was a superbus going on D2, since this would play directly into this idea and DDD is certainly conscious of his clean-ish voting record. What further bothers me is that DDD seems to have relented on this "perfect record" by calling hito Town.

With that said - this being added a few minutes ago - I think I like DDD's responses to the questions I've asked today. I'm mostly concerned about this possibility in case I'm not correct about VPB/Troll.

-----

In the heet of the ogoroshi, at risk of repeating myself I can understand the hate against him pre-MECHANISM. His SerialClergyman vote was hideous, and the xRx vote was sketcho too considering in 804 xRx seemed to drop off the scumdar entirely.

Starting at THE MECHANISM and moving on, however, hito started saying some very different things.
*He would rather be lynched over other top suspect SerialClergyman that Day
*He freely gave away his scum meta (yes, I

was

interested in seeing it, and yes, I

have

read it) at the first opportunity
*A transparent awareness of the game state in hito 1062 (as mentioned by me later)
All of these are strong Town-tells - especially for a newbish player - and all of these were made in the latter part of Day 3. While I can understand why people had their votes on hito, I don't understand why they stayed there.

At present I still have no particular interest in lynching hito.

---

Put simply, Troll's posts have put the

blag

in Zorblag. I got a mildly positive read from his posts at the end of D3 and D4 (I would not have been as generous with SerialClergyman at the end of D3, personally), but everything else is made of walls of unreadable, halfway meaningless drivel.
So I've been trying to break into the icebergposts and get into what he's trying to say, usually without significant success. In particular, I still have little idea why he pushed hito all the way through D3 because he never talked about him after voting him. I do have to agree with SerialClergyman that Troll's questions didn't seem to have "points" behind them, at least not particularly applicable points. Today he has made no effort to help find scum in spite of some very obvious hints to do so. This is obvious coasting, something you don't expect from a Townie who wants to hit pay dirt in LyLo. Bets are good that scum is in this direction.

---

VP Baltar my other top candidate for scum. More than anyone else, he pushed the SerialClergyman/hito lynches D3. I'm the last person qualified to say that's a bad thing in and of itself, but what IS a bad thing is how so much of it looked like empty ABR-style pressure; he basically bullied his vote onto SerialClergyman. I never did get an answer about why he was pushing hito, or at least one that wasn't as terrible as "xRx's meta". Plus, the comment about the two assassins joining in the end seemed really contrived tbh.
More or less as expected, Today VP Baltar has been doing isolation reads but hasn't come out with very solid conclusions. So far we have an awkward scumread on DDD, no conclusive read on Troll, and "very slightly Town" on hito, which is something of a stretch considering the points I'm calling out as transparently Town have been noted. But the walls are really large and impressive-looking!

Also,

**Side question for hito, have you felt intimdated by this player list at all during this game?

I was kind of hoping you'd say yes.

Oh, really
Wasn't that used as a(n accurate) scumtell in a game all three of us just got out of?~

The average wagon placement speaks for itself in regards to VP Baltar in particular.
The only person throughout the game (RVS aside) who has had a higher average wagon placement was xRx (who

would

considering he hammered D1 and nearly self-hammered D2).

---
@
---

tl;dr
Troll, VP Baltar, DDD, hito; in that order

[Zorblag]

At this point, probably the the thing that I'm most interested in in this game isn't the suspicion that people seem to have for me just now (though it appears to be there somewhat across the board.) Given how active I've been through the game it's not that surprising at all that I'd be suspect for town and a pretty convenient LyLo target for scum. I continue to be busy this evening but tomorrow's the last day of the quarter so I should be less distracted as of tomorrow afternoon. What's most interesting is the set of opinions people have given about hitogoroshi today. Now that I've got the most recent statements from Debonair Danny DiPietro about him to look at I'll need to think that through somewhat carefully.

For now though I can at least give a brief summary of where I think we're likely at. I'm still fairly comfortable with VP Baltar as town. His play clearly hasn't been perfect but I think I see the right motivation for it to believe that he's been playing with the town's best interest in mind. I can see any pairing of the remaining three players without too much difficulty. I think that despite the fact that I've got the least familiarity with his play the easiest alignment to tell of the three of them is probably going to be hitogoroshi based largely on overall reactions from everyone else.

For now though I'm off to bed before one last flurry of academic activity before class tomorrow morning.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[VP Baltar]

@Vi - your wagon analysis is very poor at best and I find it quite humorous that every piece of evidence you are looking at fits your hypothesis. This is a scientific first indeed.



Not sure I like the fact that EVERYONE agrees Troll is scummy without reservation.

Still need to muster the will to look at Vi.

hito, what is your town read on Vi based on?

[Vi]

@Vi - your wagon analysis is very poor at best

Why.

and I find it quite humorous that every piece of evidence you are looking at fits your hypothesis.

Refute me please.

This is a scientific first indeed.

[VP Baltar]

wagon placement =/= universal scumtell. Sorry to say. Lots of factors can affect it, including general playstyle, desire to bus, playing to the 'original thinkers' crowd, etc. Surely you don't think you're the first to make this argument in a game of mafia. I think it's pretty fail overall if this is anything but corroborative evidence toward your thoughts.

More than anyone else, he pushed the SerialClergyman/hito lynches D3. I'm the last person qualified to say that's a bad thing in and of itself, but what IS a bad thing is how so much of it looked like empty ABR-style pressure; he basically bullied his vote onto SerialClergyman. I never did get an answer about why he was pushing hito, or at least one that wasn't as terrible as "xRx's meta". Plus, the comment about the two assassins joining in the end seemed really contrived tbh.

Sorry to say, but SC got himself lynched. He looked scummy and I don't feel bad about. Also, I think you're familiar enough with my play to know how I roll, so meh about you calling my arguments empty. They are what they are and I push what I think is the best lead at the time, even if you think it's 'lol badxRx meta'.

And if you think my point was contrived, you should actually read THE MECHANISM again. Shouldn't be that tough to see what I mean now that you can be certain about ABR's alignment, even though it was painfully obvious by the time those shenanigans came up.

More or less as expected, Today VP Baltar has been doing isolation reads but hasn't come out with very solid conclusions. So far we have an awkward scumread on DDD, no conclusive read on Troll, and "very slightly Town" on hito, which is something of a stretch considering the points I'm calling out as transparently Town have been noted. But the walls are really large and impressive-looking!

Why is me doing isos expected of me? What precedent do you have for expecting this?

Seriously though, I've been pretty clear all of today with my thoughts and have easily put in the most effort thus far. My iso posts are hardly void of content, which seems to be what you are implying here, so I think that's pretty unfair to say. I'm not ready to call anyone obv scum yet because I think everyone here is good enough to fool anyone else. I'd rather take my time and get it right than come out of the gate saying Player X is scum and should die quickly. We still have plenty of time before deadline and I have things I want to say once I've fully addressed everyone in iso.

[Vi]

wagon placement =/= universal scumtell.

Yep, I knew that. That doesn't stop it from being accurate enough in practice to warrant being used.
Or do you claim to be some kind of playstyle-exception? Even ABR the fscking legend looks better on the analysis.

Or if we want specifics on those votes,

Sorry to say, but SC got himself lynched. He looked scummy and I don't feel bad about. Also, I think you're familiar enough with my play to know how I roll, so meh about you calling my arguments empty. They are what they are and I push what I think is the best lead at the time, even if you think it's 'lol badxRx meta'.

I'll grant that SerialClergyman was doing his best to look scummy, which is one reason why I stopped fighting his lynch. "How you roll" has little to do with how your vote got onto SC, though (#143 - #145) - when I say you "bullied" it onto him, that's precisely what happened, with all the juvenile ABR-trappings tacked on.

The hito vote came at an opportune time - hito had just voted SerialClergyman to L-1 with a terrible post, and your vote put hito up to L-1 for a flimsy excuse.

---

More or less as expected, Today VP Baltar has been doing isolation reads

but hasn't come out with very solid conclusions.

...should be more clear.

Seriously though, I've been pretty clear all of today with my thoughts and have easily put in the most effort thus far. My iso posts are hardly void of content, which seems to be what you are implying here, so I think that's pretty unfair to say.

At this stage in the game, I don't think that walls qualify as "content" when there is no conclusion attached.
"Oh this is good - oh this is bad - oh this I'm not sure about" neither convicts anyone nor convinces anyone, and is therefore useless.

I have things I want to say once I've fully addressed everyone in iso.

Or you can just throw them out now if you have enough information.

[VP Baltar]

Yep, I knew that. That doesn't stop it from being accurate enough in practice to warrant being used.
Or do you claim to be some kind of playstyle-exception? Even ABR the fscking legend looks better on the analysis

I'm not claiming to be any kind of exception, but playing the ages old third vote on a wagon is scum card is pretty weak. Maybe if it was 2005 that'd be an accurate scumtell.

The hito vote came at an opportune time - hito had just voted SerialClergyman to L-1 with a terrible post, and your vote put hito up to L-1 for a flimsy excuse.

Do you think hito looked scummy before that vote?

At this stage in the game, I don't think that walls qualify as "content" when there is no conclusion attached.
"Oh this is good - oh this is bad - oh this I'm not sure about" neither convicts anyone nor convinces anyone, and is therefore useless.

So DDD and Troll being my top picks for scum at the start of the day aren't solid conclusions? You (and hito) of all people should know the game my hesitation from rushing lylo is coming from. I want to take the time to look at everything as objectively as possible and arrive at the best lynch. If that means me spewing out some thoughts and reserve my conclusions at the moment, then deal with it.

Also, how likely do you think it is that scum would try to bus their partner today Vi?

[Vi]

Yep, I knew that. That doesn't stop it from being accurate enough in practice to warrant being used.
Or do you claim to be some kind of playstyle-exception? Even ABR the fscking legend looks better on the analysis

I'm not claiming to be any kind of exception, but playing the ages old third vote on a wagon is scum card is pretty weak. Maybe if it was 2005 that'd be an accurate scumtell.

While I disagree with your point in theory, what's more interesting is that I never said anything about you being third on a particular wagon. What I showed was that

on average

you were third on the wagon with each vote throughout the game. That's pretty hard to do as Town

unless

you're the Cobalt/TonyMontana type.
Or in another sense: How many wagons have

you

tried to start?

The hito vote came at an opportune time - hito had just voted SerialClergyman to L-1 with a terrible post, and your vote put hito up to L-1 for a flimsy excuse.

Do you think hito looked scummy before that vote?

A bit, although the SC vote was what really put me over. That doesn't mean I'm fine with people joining the wagon for reasons that don't check out, especially now that I believe hito is Town.

At this stage in the game, I don't think that walls qualify as "content" when there is no conclusion attached.
"Oh this is good - oh this is bad - oh this I'm not sure about" neither convicts anyone nor convinces anyone, and is therefore useless.

So DDD and Troll being my top picks for scum at the start of the day aren't solid conclusions? You (and hito) of all people should know the game my hesitation from rushing lylo is coming from. I want to take the time to look at everything as objectively as possible and arrive at the best lynch. If that means me spewing out some thoughts and reserve my conclusions at the moment, then deal with it.

While I can see where and how you said that earlier, it was certainly easy to miss and rather noncommittal~
If you're referring to tubby's game, rushing LyLo had nothing to do with how we lost that game.
You have me with the last sentence. >.>

Also, if I were rushing LyLo, I would have voted already.~

Also, how likely do you think it is that scum would try to bus their partner today Vi?

In terms of

planning

to bus, I don't know (given that this is LyLo, I wouldn't particularly expect it). In terms of

actually

bussing at the first sign of danger, not really that unlikely at all.
Your thoughts on the subject?

Incidentally, is there anyone you're interested in calling defTown? or would that be spoiling your conclusions?

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What's most interesting is the set of opinions people have given about hitogoroshi today.

I can see any pairing of

[{DDD, Vi, hito}]

without too much difficulty.

Please elaborate.

[VP Baltar]

Or in another sense: How many wagons have you tried to start?

I don't know. Look back in the thread. I'm not saying I've played my best game ever, but categorizing it as nothing but following is a touch simplistic and not really representative of my play. In terms of the average point, yes you're not pointing to a specific wagon, but it's still the same overall message, isn't it?

While I can see where and how you said that earlier, it was certainly easy to miss and rather noncommittal~
If you're referring to tubby's game, rushing LyLo had nothing to do with how we lost that game.

I don't believe it was all that non-committal, especially when no one else was really even talking. It's not like I was feeling out people's opinions on it and seeing what would be a good mislynch. I plainly said, 'My gut says X at the moment, but I definitely want to read and discuss as much as possible today'. Not sure what your issue with that is.

As far as tubby's game, it was certainly not the MAIN issue that we lost that game, but I do think that you guys voted rather quickly and for little reason there. Something to think about.

In terms of planning to bus, I don't know (given that this is LyLo, I wouldn't particularly expect it). In terms of actually bussing at the first sign of danger, not really that unlikely at all.
Your thoughts on the subject?

Probably along the same lines, though I think scum might risk looking suspicious to keep their buddy from being the lynch. I mean, it is only one wrong vote and they can win.

Incidentally, is there anyone you're interested in calling defTown? or would that be spoiling your conclusions?

Hito would probably be my closest call to defTown, though that's kind of strong language. I think his play would be kind of hard to fake as scum. Hito seems like a pretty smart guy, however, so it's not

impossible

that he's pulling the wool over my eyes.

How confident are you in your DDD read?

Troll, if you had a choice today of lynching Vi or DDD, which would it be and why do you prefer that?