926 A Game of Thrones Mafia - Over.

[Confucius]

I do not see how it helps us whatsoever for you to suddenly say that you think Raivann is Town immediately after Raivann has been lynched. Either he is or he is not -- we will find out when the Mod returns.

I look behind the

purpose

of posts -- why do players post what they post?

Your purpose seemed to be to make yourself look good directly before night.

Raivann made the "gambit" quite literally five minutes after you asked Raivann to claim. Although I do not know (since I was not on-line at the time), I will bet that you were still watching the thread after Raivann claimed. If you believed Raivann was Town due to the gambit, you had ample opportunity to unvote Raivann before The Inquisition hammered two and half hours after Raivann gambited.

As I said before, I believe you very much tacitly consented to the hammer vote.

[Percy]

I do not see how it helps us whatsoever for you to suddenly say that you think Raivann is Town immediately after Raivann has been lynched. Either he is or he is not -- we will find out when the Mod returns.

I was making my reads clear; in particular, the discussion was focussing on the "gambit", and I think that was the wrong thing to focus on, and I think the people who did it were scummy. It's that kind of "gotcha" moment that scum dream of.

Raivann made the "gambit" quite literally five minutes after you asked Raivann to claim. Although I do not know (since I was not on-line at the time), I will bet that you were still watching the thread after Raivann claimed. If you believed Raivann was Town due to the gambit, you had ample opportunity to unvote Raivann before The Inquisition hammered two and half hours after Raivann gambited.

This is baseless exposition, and entirely wrong.

I was

not

checking the thread, as I had to give a lecture directly after I posted. I was then in a faculty meeting for another two hours, had lunch, and came back; in

less than 3 hours since I had asked for a claim

, The Inquisition had hammered.

Your fixation with me (read: starting to just make shit up) isn't helping anyone catch scum. I'm candid with my reads, and I was not motivated by any desire to "look good". I wanted to point out the incredibly suspicious rhetoric and voting that went down at the end of today.

[Faraday]

Day 2 - Final Votecount
MacavityLock (1) [TheButtonMen]

Raivann (6) [MacavityLock, Percy, Locke Lamora, Kinetic, Seacore, The Inquisition]

TheButtonMen (3) [Confucius,Mina, Raivann]
Not voting: (0)

Please note I generally do NOT count conditional votes, but since The Inquisition voted Raivann last the vote does count.

Majority has been reached and the scene will be up when I write it, which is probably later this evening.[/

mech]

[Faraday]

Chapter 4 - Dany

Dany lounged near her dragons. She'd had letters coming of what happened in the war across the water. The Lannister Imp had been killed by the mob and some bravossi dancing master had been found dead the following morning.

Ser Jorah walked in, a slight smile on his face. 'My queen' he said bowing before her, eyes watching the dragons warily.
'I have news' he said taking a letter from his pocket.

'Go on, tell me' Dany said, sitting up straighter. News was coming quickly from Kings Landing, she had to be up to date with what was happening, how would she rule if she wasn't aware of the suffering her people were suffering through.

' A Stark is dead, Ned's heir was hanged by the mob' the delight on his face was evident. Dany was a little shocked, his hate for Ned seemed more intense than she'd ever realised. It scared her a little. She shook her head and went back to listen to Jorah speak.

'It appears there was a rumour he himself wanted to be King. A King in the North apparently', Jorah laughed then.
'Rubbish of course, I can't ever imagining such a thing happening but be that as it may, the people of King's Landing believed this ample justification to kill the Heir to Winterfell.' Jorah held the letter to him, almost savouring the words as he recited the way Robb had died.

'The King's Hand must be devestated. First his best friend, now his eldest son.' he paused then, waiting for a reaction from Dany. When she just looked at him he went on..

'You should be happy my Queen. This is good news for all of us.' he said eyes flashing to the dragons and then back to Dany.

She looked up and nodded, agreeing with him, 'Is that all' she asked tiredly, all this death had been a welcome help for her, but her people were suffering too.

'Yes, Danerys' he said bowing as he walked away reading the letter again, as happy as he'd been in a long time.

Raivann had been lynched - He was

Robb Stark - Vanilla Townie

Yeah, scene isn't great, but I'm tired. Night lasts 72 hours, have your actions in by then or you'll take no action

[Faraday]

Ned

Ned walked down the steps of the castle followed by 2 guards. He was frustrated, none of the people responsible for killing Robert had been found yet. Still, his face showed no emotion. He had to be the strongest of all, keep up the appearances that things were going well.

He found a body outside a tavern. A black cloak covered the body. A nightwatch cloak. Ned pulled the cloak back and saw the face of another dead man. Ned saw an arrow protruding from his heart. It had been a quick death at least Ned thought to himself. Ned pulled the arrow out and examined it. He broke it across his knee and dropped it.

'Clean him up and bury him' it's the least we can do for a man of the nightswatch' he said. Ned looked again at the body. He didn't look like someone from the nightwatch, he was overweight and his armour was shoddy. But still he'd buried with the dignity he deserved.

A guard came up to him then. He stood nervously waiting on Ned.
'What is it man, speak up' Ned asked. The man's demeanour was odd. He looked nervous and sad.

'Follow..follow me' the guard said sadly.

They cam across a woman..she was cut badly. Oh god it was almost mutilation. Ned fell to his knees as he realised who it was.

'Caetlyn..my love' he said. He went over and looked at her body. Heartbroken.

'The Lady Stark will be brought back to Winterfell where she belongs ' Ned said to the guard. The man nodded, looking at Ned with pity.

Ned walke away as the man and his fellow guards began to make arrangements. Ned's duty was elsewhere. The city was falling apart right before his eyes. Something needed to be done. Perhaps the mob would have success tomorrow.

As night ended and day began two more bodies lay dead in King's Landing.

The Inquisition -

Samwell Tarly - 1-shot nk immune townie

was pierced through the heart with an arrow night 2

Percy -

Caetlyn Stark - Vanilla townie

was cut to pieces night 2

Day 3 begins. With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

[Faraday]

Pre-Day 3 votecount.

Not voting:(7) [Locke Lamora, Kinetic, TheButtonMen, Mina, MacavityLock, Seacore,Confucius ]

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3 is 11th of April at 6pm GMT

[MacavityLock]

So, this is my "at least I hit a liar" post. We clearly need to treat today as LYLO. Confucius, Buttonmen, results?

[Mina]

V/LA until Wednesday

Inquisition, that is what I call a gambit done wrong.

I'm still not 100% sure if I should come forward with what I was hinting at yesterday. Before I proceed, I'd just like to ask everyone a question. What's the standard distribution for a game with multiple killing factions here? 3:1:8? 2:1:9? 2:2:8?

There's one thing we can be certain of. MacavityLock did not kill xvart on N1. And MacavityLock did try to kill Inquisition on both N1 and N2, because the flip confirms that Inquisition was BP.

Assuming this is LYLO, and we're dealing with a three-man scumteam, the following players can be Mafia:

Locke Lamora, Kinetic, TheButtonmen, Seacore, Confucius

Leaving the following teams:

Locke/Kinetic/Button
Locke/Kinetic/Seacore
Locke/Kinetic/Confucius
Locke/Button/Seacore

Locke/Button/Confucius

Locke/Seacore/Confucius
Kinetic/Button/Seacore

Kinetic/Button/Confucius

Kinetic/Seacore/Confucius

Button/Seacore/Confucius

I struck through all the teams including Button and Confucius, because like I said before, I don't think they can be partnered. (If someone thinks otherwise, I'd like to hear their reasoning.)

On Wednesday, I'll reread the thread and see if I can eliminate any more partnerships. This will be tough. Pretty much every single person in the game can be partnered with Locke, because he took so few stands and no one ever formed any bandwagons on him. Con's slot left no ripples early on and then was widely trusted afterward. None of the surviving players seriously pushed wagons on Kinetic and Seacore. But maybe there are clues from the Buttonmen wagons on Day One and Two.

[Kinetic]

V/LA until Wednesday

Inquisition, that is what I call a gambit done wrong.

I'm still not 100% sure if I should come forward with what I was hinting at yesterday. Before I proceed, I'd just like to ask everyone a question. What's the standard distribution for a game with multiple killing factions here? 3:1:8? 2:1:9? 2:2:8?

There's one thing we can be certain of. MacavityLock did not kill xvart on N1. And MacavityLock did try to kill Inquisition on both N1 and N2, because the flip confirms that Inquisition was BP.

Assuming this is LYLO, and we're dealing with a three-man scumteam, the following players can be Mafia:

Locke Lamora, Kinetic, TheButtonmen, Seacore, Confucius

Leaving the following teams:

Locke/Kinetic/Button
Locke/Kinetic/Seacore
Locke/Kinetic/Confucius
Locke/Button/Seacore

Locke/Button/Confucius

Locke/Seacore/Confucius
Kinetic/Button/Seacore

Kinetic/Button/Confucius

Kinetic/Seacore/Confucius

Button/Seacore/Confucius

I struck through all the teams including Button and Confucius, because like I said before, I don't think they can be partnered. (If someone thinks otherwise, I'd like to hear their reasoning.)

On Wednesday, I'll reread the thread and see if I can eliminate any more partnerships. This will be tough. Pretty much every single person in the game can be partnered with Locke, because he took so few stands and no one ever formed any bandwagons on him. Con's slot left no ripples early on and then was widely trusted afterward. None of the surviving players seriously pushed wagons on Kinetic and Seacore. But maybe there are clues from the Buttonmen wagons on Day One and Two.

Why have you ruled out both yourself and MacLock?

MacLock claimed Vig after being caught, and frankly, while you may think yourself "cleared" you're not. Neither of you absolutely cannot be mafia unless you know something that we don't. MacLock could very well have just been the mafia player to have performed the kills and there is another killing party (perhaps a Serial Killer) or yet another mafia group (2/2).

I think your assumptions otherwise are suspicious.

[Kinetic]

Also

Semi-V/LA until Wednesday

. Finishing up some things that are due April 1st. I'll still be around.

Actually, something I just looked up to confirm, it looks like the killing methods for the non-claimed kills were different. Didn't notice that on my first pass.

That means there is a high likelihood that MacLock is not Mafia, unless there is a 2/2 group, that being said Mina still can't be ruled out as far as I'm concerned.

(Reasons: The only time different kill methods would be employed is if a different member of the mafia performed the kill. This means that the likelihood of MacLock belonging to the group that performed the two unclaimed kills, assuming they were done by the same group, is unlikely. That being said a separate scum group, either a lone SK or a second group of 2, could still include MacLock.

[Confucius]

No result.

I will save my rant for The Inquisition until after the game is over, but it is an unrewarding feeling to catch a liar only to find out they were Town.

Due to nightkilling flavors, I doubt MacavityLock is Mafia unless we are dealing with 2 v 2. If he is a Serial Killer, then lynching him is the wrong move today. Hence, I will not vote MacavityLock absent some pretty definitive proof that he is Mafia.

I was going to hold off on this vote while I was writing this post, but I cannot justify doing so. There is no way TheButtonmen is Town.

Vote: TheButtonmen

.

[Mina]

Why have you ruled out both yourself and MacLock?

MacLock claimed Vig after being caught, and frankly, while you may think yourself "cleared" you're not. Neither of you absolutely cannot be mafia unless you know something that we don't. MacLock could very well have just been the mafia player to have performed the kills and there is another killing party (perhaps a Serial Killer) or yet another mafia group (2/2).

Good catch on the kill flavour change. But anyway, Mac was clearly the person who targeted Inq both times. And I think xvart and Percy fit much better as Mafia kills than SK kills. If you think that means I trust Mac...well, note my question about multiple kill factions. As well as, you know, pretty much everything about my Day Two play. But I'm forcing myself to leave him alone today, since if we're in LYLO, our priority is to stop the largest Mafia group. (Maybe I'll take a brief look at his connections, in case there are two scumteams of two. Kind of like an Ice and Fire set-up...sorry, couldn't resist.)

As for why I didn't include myself...well,

duh

.

If people don't trust me, they can do their own partnership analysis with me in the teams. But I'm not going to waste my time trawling through the thread proving to myself that Buttonmen and I can't be on the same team. Obviously, I know I'm town. I'm laying out my thought process in the thread. Once I narrow it down to the groups of three that make logical sense, I'll know where to cast my vote.

[Seacore]

I think Buttonmen is the way to go today. Although I'd like him and locke to post first.

I agree with the Kill analysis.

The unclaimed deaths are all easily mafia kills.

Mac is certainly not cleared from being an SK, but I don't think he can be mafia. Again, unless there's two scum teams.

I think our scum team is Button, Locke and Kinetic.

In that order of suspicion.

We should also discuss who our vig/sk should target.

Obviously, I think that Button should be lynched, and one of the others shot with an arrow.

Also, cut to pieces makes me think we have a ser gregor around...

[MacavityLock]

We should also discuss who our vig/sk should target.

Obviously, I think that Button should be lynched, and one of the others shot with an arrow.

Interesting. From my perspective, we're almost certainly at 4 town/3 maf. So, assuming we lynch scum today, we'd be at 4 town/2 maf -> 3 town/2 maf with a successful maf NK. If I vig wrong, that's a maf win. Willing to risk it? Did you attempt to work any numbers out on your own before posting, or no?

You guys can't rule out me being SK, I understand that, but the above analysis still works. (Again, re: me being SK, I can only ask that you note the information I provided on both kill flavors and fake names.)

[Confucius]

Seacore's suggestion is not as bad as you make it out to be, MacavityLock. If you Vig the person we would have lynched tomorrow anyways, then the Town loses little by Vigging. If you Vig wrong, then if the Mafia kill either (i) fails for some reason, or (ii) kills the same person you targeted, then the game will still go on tomorrow, with a better position than we would otherwise be in. It might even be the case that you try to Vig a wrong player, but you are role-blocked anyways.

With that in mind,

if

you decide to kill somebody tonight, I would rather you take silent action. If we're fortunate, then we might actually gain a town-directed kill.

The exception is if we lynch a scum role-blocker today. In that case, it is probably safer to

not

shoot since I might be able to catch an incriminating / exculpatory result overnight that could have changed your mind. It's possible we still have a Doctor around. It is actually that possibility that makes me think we should

not

mass-claim today.

I think there are definitely pros and cons to shooting and not shooting, and I think both positions are reasonable.

[Seacore]

I honestly didn't even think about the numbers actually... work is a nightmare and I just blurted out my thoughts.

You're right though. Looks like no more shots for you.

[MacavityLock]

Confucius, I understand that about potential doc-protects, as well as the "tomorrow's lynch" idea. All discussion that occurs today will be taken under advisement, obviously. A town-suggested kill is certainly a possible solution. I'm just saying that a) Seacore tossing that off about me killing without thinking about it might be scummy, and b) there's no guarantee that I will choose to kill tonight.

[MacavityLock]

Also, Confucius, are you interested in making a case on Buttonmen?

[Seacore]

Actually, I remember a game when we were in this situation (and I was the vig, I'd replaced in to almost exactly this situation). I ended up vigging that night, despite it risking the game, because it was clear who would be lynched the next day.

I think we'll almost certainly end up killin Buttonmen.

So the answer is, what information will we get from Buttonmen's death?

If he flips scum, I don't think we get anything. Although we should look at his posts and attempt to ascertain relationships. Who is it that saved him over the last two nights. (I know I'm probably on that list)

If he flips town, I think we can trust his results. But so far thats been zilch and pending.

So anyway, the point is, I don't think we'll really learn too much from Buttonmen's lynch. So we should discuss who would die tomorrow. Barring strong information from Con, I'd be leaning towards Locke.

The danger here though, is that if we vote for who should be vigged (i.e. who we would likely lynch tomorrow) then the scum are definitely not going to NK that guy, should we be wrong

[Confucius]

Also, Confucius, are you interested in making a case on Buttonmen?

I have already made my reasons for voting him rather clear.

When deciding whether to vote a claimed Cop, the question is: Would you follow them if they claimed a guilty result? Even before reading my role, my answer was “no.” Everything about TheButtonMen's claim – and even his N1 result – is convenient. That said, I would like to give him another night just in case I change my mind overnight.

On the subject of TheButtonMen, I would like to refer to my original stance. Please contemplate:

If TheButtonMen were to say tomorrow that he had a guilty result on somebody, would you follow him?

My answer is still "no." If TheButtonMen is Town, the only thing he is doing for us is soaking up a role-blocking. If TheButtonMen is scum, then I would rather him lynched now.

His play makes me believe that he is scum who has been getting by on a convenient claim, while hoping to draw out our real investigative role(s) on his way down. Now that he doesn't think he will be lynched today, he is more content to make cases against people. I would not be surprised to learn that he was directed to play more forcefully overnight by scumpartners, if he has any.

I am an investigative role, but I am not a Cop.

I have to say I do not like the feel of this counterwagon. It feels like I am watching the last-minute Heilograph lynch a second time.

Summary

:

1.)

I am an investigative role.

2.)

He avoided being lynched Day One solely for claiming Cop. His claim was made at a convenient time, and was itself a convenient claim.

3.)

The counterwagon on him Day One was last minute, and on Town.

4.)

His play changes from Day One to Day Two. My guess is this is the result of having a conversation with scum-partners.

5.)

The counterwagon on him Day Two was last minute, and on Town.

Additional factors

:

6.)

He still has not clarified his restriction despite being asked to do so multiple times.

7.)

He attacked me without actually voting me yesterday after I claimed.

8.)

There is now a smaller chance of there being a Serial Killer, which would make two separate investigative roles less appropriate.

Holistically, it is difficult to imagine a case for him being Town. Still, (and this is obvious) he should claim his result before we lynch him.

[Locke Lamora]

I'm here. Reading up.

[MacavityLock]

Confucius, that's fine. The reason I was asking for a case is because I figure that one of the 2 claimed investigative roles is probably scum. I wanted to make sure you had a consistent throughline, and you weren't going to laze your way through the day.

I do have to disagree with your point 5, though. Was he a major wagon at any point on day 2?

[Confucius]

Yesterday's momentum, summarized:

~ Bogre at 4 votes, wagon dissipates when Percy replaces in
~ MacavityLock at 3 votes, until claiming Vigilante
~ Raivann then hit 2 votes
~ TheButtonmen then hit 3 votes
~ Raivann then had 3 quick votes in a row (literally three posts in a row)
~ Raivann switches to TheButtonmen, The Inquisition then makes a dual vote between TheButtonmen / Raivann, and then Percy apparently tried to switch to TheButtonmen

Had that last section of votes been able to stick, TheButtonmen would have been put at 5 votes: myself, Mina, Raivann, The Inquisition, and Percy. If nothing else, the make-up of the players who were trying to lynch TheButtonmen yesterday -- which already include three dead townspeople -- should tell the tale.

It is pretty clear to me that there were two viable wagons at the end of yesterday. I am firmly of the belief that Raivann a compromise lynch, and a counterwagon.

[MacavityLock]

I didn't realize that Buttonmen got up to 3 votes before Raiv did, but looking back at it, you're right. One interesting thing: None of those 3 in a row votes on Raiv were from Buttonmen; they were Locke, Kin, and Seacore

[Seacore]

Can we get a prod on Button?