Mini 961: Insane Asylum II: GAME OVER :O!


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Post Post #19 (isolation #0) » Sun May 02, 2010 11:25 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

/confirm

(Note to mods: likely severely V/LA next weekend as well, though it should ease up after that.)
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Post Post #29 (isolation #1) » Mon May 03, 2010 12:03 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Vote: UncertainKitten
- you vote me in my games, I vote you in yours.

Iecerint - I see a grand total of zero posts made between last Wednesday and my confirmation. - including in a modded game. Moreover, I declared V/LA to UK before the game started. That should be a pretty clear sign that your late confirmation argument holds no water.
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Post Post #51 (isolation #2) » Tue May 04, 2010 8:15 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

First order of business (since I forgot to do this in my first post - oops!): I am a Miller (this may or may not be my only ability).

Second order of business: farside22 is almost certainly town. Iecerint - farside looks like an early townie fight right now. Glork needs further review.

Unvote, Vote: SocioPath
- not confident about this, but I don't have any better leads at this time.
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Post Post #83 (isolation #3) » Tue May 04, 2010 8:36 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, so I have two big thoughts so far.

1) Snow_Bunny is scum and needs to die. Post 77 is HORRIBLY scummy (doesn't post anything really new, specifically makes a post to say she's not a miller - why would a townie do that? - and her attack on Glork looks craplogic right now). Post 79 is WORSE - and that's not mentioning one other scummy thing I've seen from her that I'd rather not discuss at this time.

2) I've got a weak scum read on Glork right now, based mainly on the dismissive tone, along with the absence of a major Glork towntell I haven't seen so far which I may explain in a few pages (I haven't forgotten Fritz's Fictional Figure Fest, and Glork's play here reminds me of his play as Godfather in that game). On the other hand, first impression is that he's not scum with Snow_Bunny given the latter's crap attack... must keep the possibility of a second faction/SK in mind.

Also, I should probably softclaim this as well - I have a 1-shot activated ability that I'll probably never use, as I'm not sure how it's supposed to benefit Town at all. Honestly, it might as well be a part of my Millerness, since it makes no sense on a townie. (Well, I can see *one* possibility, but that would require a very specific kind of setup... I may revisit it after I see some claims.)

Unvote, Vote: Snow_Bunny
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Post Post #192 (isolation #4) » Tue May 11, 2010 11:48 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Hey! Away with that prod stick! I had a major final late yesterday and only woke up an hour ago.

Glork's posts in the last two pages or so look Glork-town, and Glork DOES have a meta of not being serious in the random stage, so I'll tentatively file him as town. Also, Glork: am I right in suspecting that you switch the sanity of protective roles targeting you? (Wouldn't usually ask, but I'm seeing potential for setup breaking here.)

Note to self: Wouldn't put it past UK to put the actual Miller ability on a Mafioso - it's the kind of thing I would do, and UK follows the Tar school of modding. (Speaking of that, need to go get up-to-date in Mind Screw.)

Snow_Bunny needs to either start posting and making cases or die.

You only declared V/LA for the weekend :(
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Post Post #202 (isolation #5) » Wed May 12, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Glork wrote:Tar, you are correct. Protective roles targeting me have their sanity reversed. So, um, if you know you protect sanely, please don't target me.

I have also considered the notion that the scums have at least one Miller role, which may reverse Investigations, Protections, and/or even Kills preformed on them, and I have concluded that this is a likely possibility.


I could tentatively support a Snow_Bunny wagon.
Hmm, I wonder... time to go for broke on this: does the number 5 mean anything to you (especially on, say, a passive ability)?

----

I badly need to meta SocioPath again; the biggest reason I'm not voting for him now is because I've seen him play stupidly as town before. (Then again, I need to remember LotA.)

Still want to see actual content out of S_B.

Careful Tar. This seems suspiciously close to a rule 2a violation.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #6) » Fri May 14, 2010 8:40 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Vote: Extension


In other news: SocioPath is at L-2 with >10 players alive. SocioPath: claim or die.

(Policy matter - I've been running a meta analysis, and I still can't get a good read on him; his posts towards Glork look SP-town, much of the rest of his play reads SP-scum. I'm leaning towards Socio being town (barring multiscum), mainly based on one read: I agree that Socio's probably not scum with S_B.)

-----

Speaking of Snow_Bunny...
Snow_Bunny wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:Okay, so I have two big thoughts so far.

1) Snow_Bunny is scum and needs to die. Post 77 is HORRIBLY scummy (doesn't post anything really new, specifically makes a post to say she's not a miller - why would a townie do that? - and her attack on Glork looks craplogic right now). Post 79 is WORSE - and that's not mentioning one other scummy thing I've seen from her that I'd rather not discuss at this time.
Tell, please, what are the other scummy things? I probably haven't given this game the enough time, but what you are pointing out barely makes for a case.

And funny thing, in all games I've played with you (which I believe are only two, including this one ¬_¬), you always have some sort of strange ability that makes you all mysterious to town. Huh.
Let's see about that.

First, there's the specific "I am not a Miller" comment, which I see no reason for a Townie to make (you claim Miller D1 if you are one, you don't say anything if you aren't).

Second, note the following:
Snow_Bunny wrote:Farside and Iec seems town vs town to me as of now. Although, Glork's thing with his millerness and a general quick feeling tell me to be suspicious of him.
Snow_Bunny wrote:The whole confusing thing. That's the problem with Glork's claim. I'm not saying he's scum or anything like that, but it raises my suspicious level on him.
Horribly noncommittal, veiled attack ("I'm suspicious of Glork but don't think he's scum!" That's scum rhetoric right there.)

Now, for more recent material:
Snow_Bunny wrote:
Snow_Bunny wrote:
CSL wrote:Sorry.

Vote: UncertainKitten


Bwecause lynching the mod creates chaos.
And chaos is good for town since when?
I mean, I want to lynch the mod too, but your reasoning just drew my attention.
Looks like a "Oh fudge I'm being a hypocrite and might get called for it must cya now!" post to me...
Snow_Bunny wrote:
Iecerint wrote:SB pulls this same act in every game in my experience. She has yet to be scum in a game with me.
This. I usually don't post much, due to my limited time.
farside22 wrote: The person I feel sliding by is snowbunny. She made 3 post all pointing to CSL and not even discussing the argument going on. I feel they were fluff post that to me is a dead subject.
And CSL is always anti-town.

unvote:
vote: SnowBunny.

*Note to self read Glork and SP meta
I'm sorry, but I've been busy. And, basically, you're going solely after me for lurking? That's lazy scumhunting last time I checked.
magnus_orion wrote:k, reread/skimmed the game

I'm another miller, btw.

I'm not gonna let my vote stay on our awesome goddess, nothing good could come from that.


snow_bunny is scummy,
unvote, vote: snow_bunny


I think her play could be summed up by

"vote the mod. Glork = miller = suspicious, but not too suspicious, just suspicious in the sense that I don't think you're scum, but think you might possibly be scum maybe, perhaps. I'm not a miller btw. CSL's vote on UK makes me question his motives. Oh wait, I was voting the mod as well. I meant to say that I was interested in his motives, but don't suspect him."

Snow_bunny, could you clarify your positions on glork and myself/csl? They are awfully vague as they stand, and that is worrisome.

glork is likely town
On CLS I wanted to hear the answer for my questions. It drew my attention (some suspicious, but not enough). On Glork I must admit that I need to read him again, as in this quick read I can't say much.

However, there's something I want to say about another player: Tar. It may be me, but I see Tar as a good player, however, his attacks on me doesn't show that. Basically just attacking me for lurking? Even a newbie can do that. Smells like fakehunting. And thus, I have a really bad feeling about him

Unvote, vote: Tarhalindur
Horrible, horrible misrepresentation of the cases against you all around.

Farside wasn't attacking you for lurking AFAICT, she was attacking you for ACTIVE lurking aka IIoA (apologies to Glork) - multiple responses to minor comment by another player (CSL) without actually saying anything about the game.

And you call my case on you "just attacking you for lurking"? HOGWASH. The only way in which lurking factors into my case against you AT ALL is because AFAICT you haven't been scumhunting - and even that's a stretch, because the reason your lack of scumhunting is scummy is because you aren't doing so even when you ARE posting. The main point of my original case on you was that your stance on Glork is pure waffling and veiled attacks - CLASSIC scum behavior, especially when you don't want to provoke a response from a strong townie. How the hell did you manage to get "attacking me for lurking" from THAT? (The obvious answer is "because I'm strawmanning the case against me", which would be ANOTHER lynch-me-now sign from you.)

First we hear a SocioPath claim, then (unless Socio is clearly falseclaiming) we put S_B in the noose.
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Post Post #284 (isolation #7) » Fri May 14, 2010 3:42 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

StrangerCoug wrote:Eleven posts by Snow_Bunny. That was easy :P

While the fact that she's voting the mod for a long time is alarming, the do-in seems to be the most recent post, which is essentially OMGUS on Tarhalindur, counterattacking his lurking accusation with "Even a newbie can do that." Yeah, a newbie can do that—because it's clear she's posting infrequently.

Vote: Snow_Bunny
BZZT. My case on Snow_Bunny is only incidental to her lack of activity (and only because she hasn't been posting content when she HAS been posting).

In fact, THIS vote reeks of scum motivation - I need to look at your past games now. (Could be a bus or piling on a weak townie - first instinct is the former, but I'll take a closer look.)

MFoS: StrangerCoug


I ALSO need to read CSL/magnus orion more carefully; will get on that ASAP.

In other news, I strongly expect at least one (probably exactly one) of {Haylen, Snow_Bunny} is scum (though a couple of other players have an outside shot, notably Leech though I think he's VI instead), and refuse to elaborate at this time.

Finally, policy says SocioPath still needs to claim.
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Post Post #352 (isolation #8) » Tue May 18, 2010 2:16 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

StrangerCoug wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:Eleven posts by Snow_Bunny. That was easy :P

While the fact that she's voting the mod for a long time is alarming, the do-in seems to be the most recent post, which is essentially OMGUS on Tarhalindur, counterattacking his lurking accusation with "Even a newbie can do that." Yeah, a newbie can do that—because it's clear she's posting infrequently.

Vote: Snow_Bunny
BZZT. My case on Snow_Bunny is only incidental to her lack of activity (and only because she hasn't been posting content when she HAS been posting).

In fact, THIS vote reeks of scum motivation - I need to look at your past games now. (Could be a bus or piling on a weak townie - first instinct is the former, but I'll take a closer look.)

MFoS: StrangerCoug
Her OMGUS on you, not your case, is the primary basis of my vote. Surely she can do better than she has?

- snip -.
1) BZZT. Repeat after me: OMGUS, on its own, is a NULL tell. It's the reasoning behind the OMGUS that can be scummy.

2) Underperformance is not a scumtell - it just says that somebody's having a bad game.

There ARE good reasons for thinking S_B/Ellibereth is scum... but the ones you're pushing don't count.
Ellibereth wrote:
DrippingGoofball wrote:Snow_Bunny asked to be replaced here. BUT. She just posted in another mini.
Orly?
I thought she was force replaced, but even if she wasn't she's prob too busy to handle this one.

What am I missing about COUG? I only looked at his millerishism claim post which looks genuine.
So far: TAR, GLORK, MAGNUS = TOWN.
Wagon on me has scum on it. SO at least one of FARSIDE and STRANGER.
On Coug: Observe the quoted post above, it should answer some things.

As for your wagon: Farside is town, but IIRC I wasn't nearly so sure about magnus when I last read him... time for a double-check.

Also, remember that there's a group of about five players (including you) where I expect one (maybe two, but doubt it) scum. You know who else is in the group. Better start convincing me which one is more likely to be scum than you are.
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Post Post #353 (isolation #9) » Tue May 18, 2010 2:19 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

magnus_orion wrote:oh yeah, I've been meaning to ask you, tar, why are you so intent on socio claiming?
Tar policy is that failing to force a claim from a sufficiently large wagon is a bad idea, and thus a player who reaches L-1 (if <10 players) or L-2 (if 10 or more players) must claim as a matter of policy. (I'm not as sure about this policy as I was a few years back... especially as it relates to players I think are town... but I'd be remiss to not at least bring it up.)
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Post Post #362 (isolation #10) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:45 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Not really liking the SC claim.

1) It's a NK-immune claim. In current meta, NK immunity is so much more likely to be falseclaimed by scum than trueclaimed that it should be treated as the Miller ability and claimed at the beginning of the game (it's suboptimal in a vacuum since you lose the ability to block scum kills, but when the alternative is getting lynched...).
2) He's claimed killing role when I already suspect two other non-Mafia players have roles that can potentially kill.
3) Sounds like a perfect Godfather or SK role to me...

Main points for it are 1) NK-immune miller vig being a known role type of the kind UK might include in the game (considering UK comes from the Tar school of modding) and 2) correct formatting on the miller ability.

I pointed refuse to elaborate on which players I was referring to earlier. (Yet, anyways.)
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Post Post #373 (isolation #11) » Wed May 19, 2010 11:38 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Ellibereth wrote:
farside wrote:Elli's vote for SC for no reason is noted.
I had one. I thought everyone else on me was town.

I'm a Nurse. I get the sanity of the first doctor killed.
BULLSHIT.

I will be extremely, EXTREMELY surprised if this claim is real - especially since you should have claimed that somewhere else if that were your real role.

LOCK ON: Ellibereth
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Post Post #409 (isolation #12) » Thu May 20, 2010 7:41 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Glork wrote:
StrangerCoug wrote:
Glork wrote:
Unvote
Vote: Ellibereth


Please claim, Elli. You are now at L-2.
FoS: Glork


Start convincing me that you're not trying to get as many people as possible to claim if you don't want me to vig you.
Not as many as possible. Two. There are some things I'm working out about this game, and so the claims are helpful.

You're more than welcome to try to vig me if you'd like. I don't think either of us can guarantee that it will work.



I am currently considering the possibility that the scums have an Insane Doctor who does their kills, and that Elli is a Mafia Nurse who will do the killing once his scumbuddy is dead and gone.

The implications of such a belief are a little awkward, though. I'm not sure if that belies a two-person scumgroup, if there's a Backup Nurse or something (very unlikely, IMO), or if it's possible to put the scums in a position where they won't actually be able to kill anyone.




One thing is certain. I do believe that Coug thinks he's a Vig, and I do believe that Elli is a Nurse of some kind.
Unvote
while I think.

In the meantime, Tar's "lock on" bothers me. Maybe it's because I've only bothered to breadcrumb a very minor aspect of my role, and I see his post as an excuse to lash out at someone who he can paint as being scum for what he will pose as suboptimal town play.
Let me put it to you this way, Glork: I'm a Day Mason (unconfirmed - otherwise it would be broken, considering I have FOUR mason partners). Ellibereth is one of those partners, and failed to mention that he is a Mason.

I also doubt the Nurse claim - it's slightly more plausible than normal, but in that case we might have to deal with a scum group with multiple kills per night. (Of course, if my guess that the setup is Dethy-inspired holds up...)
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Post Post #504 (isolation #13) » Sat May 22, 2010 4:03 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Glork wrote:I believe that Coug is protown. It sounds like he has roughly the same millerlike abilities that I do.


You're probably not Unnightkillable, and I'm really starting to think that us regular inmates are legit, while the doctors are the scums.



Vote stays on Elli.
Not sure on Coug's Miller - it is correctly templated, but given the templating I can't rule out the possibility that he borrowed it from a Godfather ability... still, he can wait until tomorrow. (Note: Farside/Yos2's point is valid... and I'm pretty sure both DGB and SocioPath are town, and doubt that Haylen and Ellibereth are buddies. That's a point towards StrangerCoug being scum.)

Your "all doctors are scum" speculation, however, is dead wrong - remember that big-ass mason group I'm a part of? Yep, that's the insane asylum staff. There's at least some town staff in the game - if for no other reason then because there's too many staff in the game for all to be scum.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #14) » Wed May 26, 2010 10:39 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Post to avoid prod - I should have time for more tomorrow.

You didn't do a very good job of avoiding prod. It's tomorrow. In fact, it's the day after tomorrow
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Post Post #685 (isolation #15) » Sat May 29, 2010 10:31 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, first up - when I get prodded for NOT BEING ABLE TO REACH THE SITE for the better portion of a SINGLE DAY after keeping a fairly normal (for me) activity schedule, I really have only recourse.
I should be considered V/LA for the remainder of the game barring a MAJOR improvement in site stability. If this is not permissible, I will need to request replacement - I CANNOT currently guarantee one post per 48 hours, especially not with the site in its current state.
(If the post deadline was 72 hours, I would probably be able to do so... but not 48.)

I'm trying to decide how best to play my hand here - I've been stupid, but as a result of that stupidity I may be able to catch us two scum here.

First, current reads: Iecerint doesn't look particularly good to me. One of {DGB, Haylen} is scum by the numbers - probably the latter, since DGB is behaving a lot like she did in Medieval (where she was town - foolish town, but town nonetheless). Farside22 is very probably town for meta reasons, magnus orion looks town given play. I have a weak town read on SocioPath (I'll take a second look), a weak scum read on SocioPath, and Dram has softclaimed neutral (which I'm inclined to believe for now).

Second: I think DGB is going to need to claim target (I know from mason discussions her role has a targeted ability - you don't need to know what it is yet) - I strongly suspect her ability targeted scum last night (DGB - I suspect your sanity is Insane). I'd ask her to do so in the usual spot except that we can't use it right now (stupid lockdown). (Haylen will probably need to do so as well, but that can probably wait until we force her to fullclaim - though I'll drop now that I suspect her sanity is Paranoid.)

I'm probably in a fullclaim situation here - I have information I'm pretty sure the rest of the town needs to have, and I don't see a way to put it out without implicitly claiming my main ability. But I'd rather wait until I either need to leave the game or until I can be sure who's the scum in my mason group is.

Vote: Haylen
for now.
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Post Post #693 (isolation #16) » Sun May 30, 2010 9:21 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

DrippingGoofball wrote:Erm, Tar, if I my ability was insane, and I had targeted scum, there would be dead scum.
I suspect you hit a NK-immune scum, hence the questioning.

And you're VERY unlikely to be sane - I have very good evidence that I'm sane (friggity frig frig - I was so sure I was anything but...), and given that I don't see how you can be sane.

As for Iecerint - I think he's likely scum, but that Haylen is even more likely to be scum. Especially given that SocioPath vote: Socio is a BAD lynch today - even if Iec is town (big if), Haylen is still much more likely to be scum.
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Post Post #733 (isolation #17) » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:02 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Besides the game balance reasons for Haylen being scum - has her player slot done ANYTHING pro-town this game? (Not to mention that if she is town and thinks that a) there is scum in our masonry and b) that DGB is town then she should be attacking the hell out of me. But she's being passive. I'm pretty sure that's a scumtell for her, though I'll need to meta to be sure.)

Iecerint looks more town in his most recent posts (though the question of who exactly IS scum if he's town remains a good one).
StrangerCoug wrote:I'd still like a SocioPath lynch, but I see myself being easily persuaded to switch off to Haylen or Iecerint, my two scumreads other than that. I'm willing to put stock in people being afraid of my kill that's now likely not going to happen being scum, hence why I'm willing to vote Haylen, and my last post with content said Iecerint comes off scummy after his argument with magnus_orion, which explains my willingness to vote Iec.
Wait... WHAT?!

StrangerCoug: Why "I see myself being easily persuaded to switch"? Why not something more active such as "I could get behind a lynch on these two players"? The former implies passivity (a scum/neutral mindset, since scum don't really care who gets lynched as long as it's not them) and an attempt to shirk responsibility for your actions (pretty big scumtell).

HoS: StrangerCoug
(this may switch to a vote, depending on Haylen and your actions)
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Post Post #743 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 04, 2010 2:17 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

dramonic wrote:
Unvote

I think I'm going back to my original Socio, Haylen, SC team.
Vote: Haylen
*raises eyebrow*

Unvote
for now (don't want any quickhammers).

Haylen, claim in your next post or my vote goes back on you.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #19) » Sat Jun 05, 2010 3:03 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

*glances at DGB's latest posts*

*rereads all of DGB's play this game*

*goes back to check Mind Screw Mafia 3*

*picks jaw off floor and checks Mind Screw 3 again*

*checks past DGB games and finds Monopoly Mafia*

*rereads DGB again, checking for DGB tells... and notices that, among other things, DGB ISN'T DIRECTLY QUESTIONING PEOPLE SHE FINDS SCUMMY - which is exactly how she played in Mind Screw 3, among other games...*

...

Oh crap, I've been missing the obvious the whole time.

DGB IS scum.

Vote: DrippingGoofball


(Not sure on Haylen...I can't rule out the possibility that she's buddy with DGB given the numbers and DGB's failure to attack Haylen earlier. Give me a minute here. I sure as HELL don't want her hammered right now, though.)
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Post Post #762 (isolation #20) » Sun Jun 06, 2010 9:39 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Haylen wrote:Tar, I don't buddy with people. I'm nice to them. You know? Is that such an odd thing to come by these days? If so, it's a sad sad world.
M_O wrote: btw, sick of waiting for haylen to post.
Sick of having my ass kicked over this in every fucking game.
SC wrote: no objections to a Haylen lynch. I'm fine hammering.
How opportunistic. Me things that he knows he could come under heat today and is trying to lynch somebody else.

Would you like to know the truth? The past few games, my brain has been mushy. I can barely remember the rules of mafia let alone how to scumhunt. I dunno maybe I'm so stressed out that things are affecting me play.

Claim: Medical Administrator
Two things:

1) What exactly is that role supposed to do? (Don't want to get nasty surprises - I suspect Yos2 learned a player's sanity or made that player sane, for instance.)
2) Claim actions/targets, if any.

Also, while I'm here:

Vote: Extension
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Post Post #807 (isolation #21) » Tue Jun 08, 2010 1:56 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Haylen: Claim Night 1 action and target. (I have my thoughts on the claim, but I'll hold them until after you do this - either you're digging your own grave or you're pointing me towards a scumbag.)

DrippingGoofball: It's a bit early, but claim - including Night 1 target.

Also note that I suspect there's a Paranoid Doctor and she? is a member of the Mafia.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #22) » Tue Jun 08, 2010 8:59 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

I have a post or two in the wings, but I'm waiting until DGB clarifies to post it. (We need her claimed target from last night if possible, mainly to guard against worst-case scenario.)
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Post Post #833 (isolation #23) » Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:25 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Iecerint wrote:
UncertainKitten wrote:
Glork, Miller Cop, has been Scalpel Slashed Night One
Yosarian2, Psychologist, has been Shot Night One
I am going to hazard a guess...

Also, it is very unlikely that UK would refrain from at least informing DGB of who she targeted. She's pretty much claimed scum with that. She also ignored my question.

ALSO, the way to handle that kind of ability N1 is to target someone on the scummy side. The killing is great (~50% chance), and the protection isn't likely to happen (chance of role existing*~1/(n-1)*1/(n-1)*100% chance). It's bogus that DGB just couldn't figure that out or something.

This also may explain the mystery of why scum would have hypothetically killed a relatively scummy player D1. The Yoskill flavor is still sorta weird, though.

Side note: if everyone knew DGB was an insane doc all along, why didn't any of you guys whine about her earlier? <_<
1) I suspect that our actual "vig" is really an insane doctor (though if StrangerCoug is telling the truth, we may be dealing with an naive doctor and paranoid doctor instead). I can't see a scum insane doctor, either.

2) I'm pretty damn sure DGB is scum at this point. Yes, I knew she had previously doctor (sanity unknown as per bv310's claim) - however, I didn't claim that on the off chance that DGB-scum would screw up and claim something else. In fact, I'm pretty sure that's what she DID - she claimed insane doctor (which I had implied earlier) and then corrected to sanity unknown.

Moreover, claiming "no target" because you think you're insane? BULLSHIT. See, I thought *I* was probably insane (or at least much more likely to be insane than sane) last night, and instead of no-targeting or targeting a scummy player (didn't want to inadvertently block a vig shot if I did turn out to be sane) I decided to protect the player that had CLAIMED AN ABILITY THAT REVERSED THE SANITY OF PROTECTIVE ROLES TARGETING HIM - a claim that I still believe wholeheartedly, since his role seems to be a mirror of my own and my miller ability works similarly*. In addition, that player was likely to be NKed and was valuable enough to warrant keeping alive, and I had at most a 25% chance of accidentally killing him assuming random sanity (which wouldn't be completely useless - though definitely a worst-case scenario - since I would then be confirmed sane).

That player was Glork (if there's a Green Zone: Sorry about that!). Given the kill method (let alone Haylen's info), it shouldn't be too hard to see exactly why I'm so sure I'm sane.

Given that I'm nearly sure of my sanity and I strongly doubt the existence of two sane doctors in this setup, that implies that both Haylen and DGB are probably nonsane. (I also find the existence of an insane scum doctor impossible for balance reasons... farside, you want to claim any kill immunities.)

Haylen's claimed role reminds me very strongly of Sasaki from my Haruhi game... Haylen, is there any limitation to what days Kairyuu could have set the global block to?

Still think DGB is scum and should be lynched, but I'd like that answer out of Haylen first if possible.

* - I strongly suspect Glork was sane cop and had a 1-shot ability to reverse doctor sanities for the night (my claimed "what is this ability doing on town?" from the start of the game reverses cop sanities for one night).
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Post Post #841 (isolation #24) » Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:14 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

magnus_orion wrote:Tar is absolutely 100% undeniably town, and has confirmed several of my suspicions. However, the fact that DGB apparently claimed her role early makes me unsure... it is a rather risky move on her part. I'd like information as to when this was done, game-wise.
Day 1, while bv310 was still in the game.

I'll make this clear: I think DGB is a Doctor... just probably not a town one (I suspect a scum Paranoid Doctor). (Especially given Haylen's claim... I know that mechanic, and I think scum-Kairyuu would probably have set it to go off at some ridiculously late time and just forgotten about it.)

However, I want to double-check something. Which players do not have daytalk AND cannot talk at night? If I'm right, those players are m_o and SC - any others?

Unvote
while I wait for an answer - if anybody else hammers DGB today, I will ask for their head on a platter tomorrow.
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Post Post #845 (isolation #25) » Wed Jun 09, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

magnus_orion wrote:
Day 1, while bv310 was still in the game.
how early? Like what significant, if anything, was going on in-thread at the time.
It was immediately before bv310's computer broke down, AFAICT.
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Post Post #912 (isolation #26) » Sat Jun 19, 2010 3:45 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, first two orders of business.

1) Haylen claimed a global roleblock. There was a kill last night. Unless Haylen can offer a VERY good explanation for this, she all-but-has to be falseclaiming scum and needs to be lynched. (I'm reminded of a certain global redirect from Mind Screw Mafia 3.) Also note DGB's reluctance to lynch her yesterday.
2) dram's continued attack on StrangerCoug (after StrangerCoug was offering an exceedingly pro-town defense to scumDGB attack) is horrible. Dram: explain why you think StrangerCoug was bussing DGB. In detail, please. (Seriously, as far as I can tell if anyone was bussing DGB it was SocioPath given his D1 play - the StrangerCoug wagon from yesterday looks like a desperate scum counterwagon, and I'm pretty sure at least one of the surviving two players on it is scum... possibly both, given that the two players on the wagon not named DGB were Haylen and dram. If SC is scum, he's an SK relying on no-killing.)

I'll also put this out there now: I reread farside22 overnight. I'm nowhere near as certain that she's town as I was yesterday (will explain fully when I get more time - for now, note that the behavior from which I concluded she was town (consistent pressure on a player, namely iecerint) disappeared after the early game. Farside should recognize this reasoning at least, it's the same tell I nailed her for in Inventor Mafia... though I'm not as sure here as I was there).

Side note: Killing Haylen over a claimed sane doctor is odd, to say the least. I'll be thinking about this (of course, it's easy enough to explain if Haylen is scum - iecerint thought she was scum with DGB).

Vote: Haylen
unless I see a good reason not to.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #27) » Sat Jun 19, 2010 8:34 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Wait, L-1 is a good reason to unvote until Haylen has a chance to respond.

Unvote, Vote: Dramonic, HoS: Haylen
- this will switch back if I don't see a really good explanation from Haylen.

Also, since I'm probably dead tonight and there's an outside chance we're in LyLo (if StrangerCoug is SK), we should probably consider massclaiming now.
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Post Post #919 (isolation #28) » Sun Jun 20, 2010 11:55 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

dramonic wrote:For one, the claim was incredibly botched, and not only once.
Also, he's escaped lynch too many times for this to be normal =_=
For the other, I've gut
I concur with magnus, please explain why you think StrangerCoug has "escaped" a lynch. (Especially since DGB pushed a StrangerCoug lynch from Day 1 and I don't think that's a bus... and because I suspect that the Mafia - like, say, you - are tunneling on a single player in desperate hopes of getting their mislynch/SK lynch, ala the Mafia in Random Mafia 3.)
Haylen wrote:
UncertainKitten wrote:
Flavor will go here when I can be arsed to write it.


Iecerint, Mostly Vanilla Townie, has been Shot N2
O_o

Since I've already been hammered I don't see any point in trying to work out why there was a night kill. Work it out yourselves, I was telling the truth.
Last I checked you were at L-1 before I unvoted. Get to thinking/explaining, please.
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Post Post #930 (isolation #29) » Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:51 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Dram, a few questions for you:

1) Do you think Haylen is town or scum, and why?
2) Assume that you can't get your StrangerCoug lynch today. In this case, who do you want to see lynched and why? (In other words, who is your second pick for scum?)
3) Who do you think is scum with StrangerCoug?
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Post Post #941 (isolation #30) » Wed Jun 23, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Post to avoid any prod-happy mod action. More later tonight when I have time.
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Post Post #948 (isolation #31) » Thu Jun 24, 2010 10:15 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

On StrangerCoug: Coug is almost certainly not Mafia. DGB wanted him dead from early on D1 to such an extent that she pushed him as a Ellibereth counterwagon, and DGB's not on the list of players who I'd expect to bus scum from game start. Moreover, my experience with dueling Day 1 wagons is that both of them are usually on town.

He may, however, be SK. (The worst case scenario is bulletproof SK with a repeatable kill who's chosen to no-kill or had his N1 kill stopped.) That's the only reason I can think of why we should even consider lynching StrangerCoug today.

On dramonic: After review, I think he's pretty damn likely to be scum. (I strongly suspect the scumteam is Haylen-dramonic - especially given the D1 SC wagon) and would like to see one of those two in the noose today.) Why?
- Continued push for a StrangerCoug lynch after strong evidence that SC is not Mafia. (Reminds me of how scum were so desperate to kill me in Random Mafia 3 that two successive scumbags got themselves lynched via ridiculously bad pushes for my lynch.)
- Bullshit reasoning for a StrangerCoug lynch. In particular: "Also, he's escaped lynch too many times for this to be normal =_=." Really now? I thought it was just a good case of players realizing that there were far stronger cases than the SC case - especially now that a player pushing for SC's lynch since D1 has flipped Mafia.
- Why exactly are you so sure that Haylen is town today when you were so sure she was scum yesterday?

I think it's about time that dramonic claimed - if he won't do so now, I say put the third vote on him.
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Post Post #953 (isolation #32) » Fri Jun 25, 2010 8:01 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

dramonic's claim wrote:
mostly vanilla townie
<<
dramonic, Day 2 wrote:
This role is totally a partial-ripoff of Snow Bunny in Legacy of the Ancients
:P

Iece, why am I scummy?
Dram needs to explain that D2 post, and he needs to do so now.
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Post Post #971 (isolation #33) » Fri Jun 25, 2010 4:06 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

dramonic wrote:Not mine, SC.
With the points and gaining kills or something
Like how SB had to get shot to gain points.
Okay, that's reasonable.

One last question before I do anything else: In my past games, Mostly Vanilla Townie has indicated a role with no activated abilities that has some minor snippet of information or some minor ability (canonical example is Alice - it was Alice, right? It's been a while. - from Mind Screw 1). Do you have any such abilities that you haven't claimed yet?
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Post Post #975 (isolation #34) » Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:39 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

dramonic wrote:I am vanilla, for the third time. I don't HAVE abilities barring posts and votes and posting during the night.
Do you agree that SC is at the very least a SK?
Actually, that posting during the night is exactly the kind of ability I was looking for. (Should have remembered it earlier, to be honest.)

Honestly - I think you're probably telling the truth about your role. UncertainKitten is an acolyte of the Tarhalindur school of modding, and I'm pretty well known for the token vanilla townie, sometimes with a twist. Night talking with no other abilities is EXACTLY the sort of thing that would earn the Mostly Vanilla title in my games, and since WWTD? (What would Tar-mod do?) tends to hold up well in UK games that's a strong point in your favor.

More to the point, I don't think you'd make that claim as scum (I don't think you're familiar enough with my old mod meta to know about my token lynchbait vanilla roles, and if you did know you'd know that you were risking counterclaim). Granted, you could be scum with a mod-given safeclaim, but in that case we're not catching you via claim analysis anyways.

In addition, the defeatism you're showing tends to be a vanilla tell in my experience.

While I'm still uneasy about your apparent SK-hunting (SK-hunting is probably the most reliable Mafia tell I know), I'm willing to give you a pass for now.

Unvote, Vote: SocioPath
(I don't want to put the L-1 on Haylen just yet, and SocioPath is my next best suspect by PoE.)

Actually, now that I think about it - with four players claimed or mostly claimed and the possibility of LyLo (if SC is an SK), massclaim may be in order here. Thoughts?
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #35) » Sun Jun 27, 2010 6:57 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Summary of claims so far:

Fullclaims:
StrangerCoug
(NK immune, investigation miller, gains 1 charge per kill that targets him, may use a charge to kill another player, ability to post in thread at night)
Dramonic
(ability to post in thread at night and no other abilities)
Haylen
(Doctor (sanity unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT (note to self: find who introduced Cabal terminology in thread - if they're not on the Cabal themselves they may need to be hanged), 1-shot global roleblock (but kill occurred on roleblock night); personally suspect sanity is Naive, though Sane is possible if a superkill exists)
Tarhalindur*
(Doctor (confirmed sane by N1 result), investigation miller, member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT, 1-shot ability to reverse cop sanities globally for one night)

Partially claimed:
Corvuus
(Cop (sanity unknown but not Naive), ability to post in thread at night, unspecified confusing third ability (needs to elaborate))
magnus_orion
(unspecified role but likely investigative of some type given behavior)

Unclaimed:
SocioPath
(unknown role, though I have my suspicions)

Dead:
Yosarian2
(Psychologist (specifics unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT; personal suspicion is that his main ability switched a player's sanity to Sane but learn target player's sanity is also possible)
Ellibereth
(Nurse (gains doctor ability and sanity of first doctor killed), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT)
Glork
(Cop (sanity unknown), protection Miller, ability to post in thread at night; personally suspect Sane and a 1-shot ability to flip doctor sanities globally for a night)
DrippingGoofball
(Mafioso, Doctor (sanity unknown), member of the Cabal with associated ability to daytalk in Cabal QT; personally suspect sanity Paranoid (if SCSK and/or Haylen insane) or Naive)
Iecerint
(presumably ability to talk in thread at night and no other abilities)

* -technically wasn't fullclaimed before this, but since I'd claimed everything else anyways...

Notes:
- In an act of boneheaded stupidity, I failed to notice a couple of days ago that a) Mostly Vanilla Townie was listed in the opening posts and b) more importantly, Iecerint ALREADY FLIPPED MOSTLY VANILLA TOWNIE. This is a HUGE point against dramonic - possibly equivalent to being preemptively counterclaimed from the second he claimed knowing that UK borrowed my concept of the token lynchbait vanilla (ala Suzumiya Haruhi/Mind Screw 1 and 2) in past games. I'll need the last two claims to be sure, but dramonic is likely scum; if Haylen is not Mafia, he's likely our superkiller.
- I'd really like to see SocioPath's claim, mainly because if he claims what I think he will I've probably all-but-broken the setup in half.
- One of {Corvuus, magnus_orion, Haylen} is likely Mafia; Haylen can be removed from this list if dramonic is Mafia.
- As things currently stand, one of {dramonic, Haylen} is almost certainly Mafia.
- We can either all-but-guarantee that Mafia loses or guard against the possibility of StrangerCoug being bulletproof SK with at least two kills (the scenario that results in a Prisoner's Dilemma for town tomorrow barring a successful protection), but not both.

Everyone but especially SocioPath: I've run the numbers on SCSK possibilities.

The worst-case scenario requires that StrangerCoug be SK with bulletproof and at least two kills (unlimited is more likely - in fact, if StrangerCoug is SK I'd say it's probable he's lying about having a limited number of kills) and runs as follows:

Day 3 lynch any player other than SC.
Night 3 Mafia and SC both choose to kill.

Here are the permutations OTOH:
1) If the Day 3 lynchee is town and both N3 kills target different town players, then one of the following happens:
1a) Mafia fulfills win condition Day 4 (most likely in case of 50% win condition)
1b) Kingmaker (no lynch results in either Mafioso and last townie dying Night 4 for likely SK victory or the last townie getting doublekilled Night 4 for the Mafia victory, SC lynch results in Mafia win, Mafia lynch should result in SK win)

2) If the Day 3 lynchee is town, {a N3 kill is stopped, SCSK and the Mafia kill the same player (doublekill)}, and the player who dies N3 is town, one of the following happens:
2a) Day 4 begins as 2-2-1 Kingmaker assuming reasonably optimal kills.

3) If the Day 3 lynchee is town and SCSK crosskills a Mafioso overnight, one of the following happens:
3a) If the Mafia kill N3 fails, Day 4 begins as 3-1-1 LyLo and Town can chainlynch the last Mafioso and the SK for the win.
3b) If the Mafia kill N3 succeeds, Day 4 begins at 2-1-1 Kingmaker endgame assuming reasonably optimal kills.

4) If the D3 lynchee is Mafia, one of the following happens:
4a) If either kill fails OR SCSK and the Mafia both kill the same player, Day 4 begins as 3-1-1 LyLo and proceeds as 2a.
4b) If SCSK crosskills the second Mafioso, Day 4 begins as either 3-0-1 or 4-0-1 (depending on success of the Mafia kill) and we lynch StrangerCoug ftw.
4c) If the Mafia and SCSK both succesfully kill different players, Day 4 begins as 2-1-1 Kingmaker endgame assuming reasonably optimal kills.

Note: If SCSK has exactly two kills then an endgame draw is possible depending on his win condition (since he cannot finish all town). If SCSK has one kill then 2-1-1 is NOT Kingmaker but rather LyLo (assuming we're not dealing with a variant win condition such as "be one of the last three players alive"): Town must lynch the last Mafioso Day 4 and then lynch StrangerCoug the next day.

The scenario we lose by lynching SC today (barring surprises from claims):
1) We lynch dramonic today.
2) If dramonic flips a role other than superkiller, we lynch Haylen Day 4. Otherwise, we lynch one of {Corvuus, magnus_orion}.
3) We lynch one of {Corvuus, magnus_orion} Day 5 (this choice is trivial if we already lynched the other Day 4 and the game is still ongoing; if not, I'd currently lean towards Corvuus pending m_o claim).

This loses if StrangerCoug is SK but should result in at worst a 50% chance of losing if he is town, and at best an autowin. (Yes, SocioPath has been left off the lynch list; I'll explain why I did so after I see what he claims.)

Unvote, Vote: dramonic
, but I don't want to lynch until fullclaim is done.

I'd prefer SocioPath/magnus_orion to claim in that order.
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #36) » Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:45 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Okay, time for disclosure: I was expecting SocioPath to claim retired cop (to mirror Ellibereth's Nurse claim). In that scenario, three town investigative roles plus two town doctors plus a Nurse plus a backup Cop in a mini seemed REALLY unlikely (hence the "one of {Haylen, Corvuus, magnus_orion} is scum" line of thought).

Instead, he's just marked himself as likely scum. A sanity-shifting ability like that is incredibly useful to scum (see: The Joker in Mind Screw 4), and if multiple sanity-shifting roles exist I can't really see both of them being town.

M_O is likely telling the truth about his abilities (that final ability looks right to me) - however, I'm having some trouble seeing Glork target himself. The most likely scenario, IMO, is that he's insane (though the little internal voice is reminding me that the only other player we know has similar powers is known town).

The biggest issue is still that something caused a kill last night, and that something has to be either an unstoppable kill or Haylen being scum.

I still need to think about this.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #37) » Wed Jun 30, 2010 3:22 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Actually, something ELSE just caught my eye earlier today...

There are three claimed millers (plus one dead one). Two of those claimed millers also claimed an infectious ability that reverses sanities of specific abilities (namely, all abilities they are millers to) for one night.

The only one who didn't is StrangerCoug.

Hmm, maybe I should go for that StrangerCoug lynch after all... give me a sec to mull this over.
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #38) » Thu Jul 01, 2010 6:44 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Grr. I'll vote SC if we need to ensure a lynch, but I'd appreciate more time to think.

Vote: Deadline Extension
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #39) » Sat Jul 03, 2010 9:33 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

magnus_orion wrote:
dramonic wrote:And what is it you want now MO?
Also, the votecount seems incorrect.

No it isn't.
Your opinions. On everything. You to scumhunt. To make an effort in this game.

SC is definitely not a good lynch choice... I really don't think he's mafia. And if he's an SK, I really don't care.

I still believe Dramonic is scum.

How about this.
We lynch dramonic. I use my ability tonight. SP doesn't do anything, Haylen targets herself, and Tar targets SP. That leaves Coorvus, Tar, Me, and SC.
I think Coorvus is town, I know Tar is town, I know I'm town. Because of those reads, I don't believe there is a result under this where two mafia make it to tomorrow, or mafia equal or outnumber the town tomorrow. If haylen doesn't target herself, we should lynch her. If both haylen and SP live, we lynch SP.

Scum will try to kill me or tar because of my using my ability.
If we haven't won by then, it will be a 3-way lylo between myself or tar, corvuus, and SC.
And then we'll probably lynch SC.

Are there any problems with this? I sort of just ran it off the top of my head, so I'm not positive it totally checks out.
While I approve of you using your infectious (note to self: infectious is likely the "former sex worker" ability) to set me up for a kill tonight, I don't see how we can rely on this as a plan UNLESS we lynch SocioPath today (and that carries a risk that we wind up with me taking a 50/50 chance on the nightkill between dramonic and Haylen with failure resulting in a town loss).
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #40) » Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:14 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

A few quick thoughts:
- Unless UK has significantly diverged from normal WWTD (What Would Tarhalindur Do?), whoever killed Iecerint is ALSO the same player who killed Yos2. As such, if StrangerCoug is an SK who killed Iecerint, then the Mafia's N1 kill failed... which I consider unlikely. If there is a superkill floating around, it is probably Mafia (and probably also has to be limited shot, which doesn't square too well with what Haylen claimed). If it ISN'T a Mafia superkill, then either Haylen is scum or the Mafia KNOWS that StrangerCoug is SK... maybe we should lynch StrangerCoug, just to cut through the Gordian Knot.
- There is at least one and probably two Mafiosos on the "lynch SC" brigade. Haylen and dram are the obvious suspects, but I'm still rather uneasy about Corvuus (hell, I've used Mafia Cop before and UK knows it - it's also easy to fake).
- I still find it difficult to believe that Mafia has no means of affecting sanity. That's a point against Socio... or maybe Haylen is actually a third, Mafia psychologist? Honestly, that would explain a lot...
- At least one of {Haylen, m_o, Corvuus} is scum simply because I don't see how the setup is balanced with all three roles being as claimed and town. Magnus seems to fit the best given that DGB was Mafia Doctor.
- There is one scenario I can think of where both dram and Haylen can be town. That scenario requires that Iecerint still be in the game, however.
- Corvuus: Investigate any player you are certain is town tonight (if you don't have a default, you should probably pick me, since I'm probably dead tomorrow morning). You NEED to know your sanity.
- I'm STILL not sure whether the possibility of SCSK is worth lynching him - not doing so risks Kingmaker tomorrow, but I don't like the 5-player LyLo I see coming if we do.
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Post Post #1135 (isolation #41) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:55 am

Post by Tarhalindur »

Corvuus wrote:I'm not that great at being concise, but here goes.
Magnus:
I don't really like that you are using your role as 'proof' that SC isn't a SK and arguing mod balance.

1. You have stated in the past that you thought sc is an SK. You later said you no longer believed that SC is an SK but that you had before. What changed if your role means he can't possible be SK to you?

2. You do realize that if I was to consider and argue mod balance; I consider a SC-SK + mafia-team more plausible than your global ability existing and town instant losing w/4+ deaths in day 1. This is why I said earlier that I didn't think your role was balanced and was reading into sanity/claims further.

I then found the "list" from the lynch with sanity listed for abilities. For all we know, Tar might be the only sane doc. All the other sanity variations are just "protect self, remove protection". Given that not all docs are sane and only sane docs could vig (vig glork, vig with reversal), I considered it possible for you to exist since most likely (if balanced setup) tar would vig, other docs would be useless/non-vig, mafia might fail their kill, etc.

I really don't like this.

3. I think we are on opposite sides regarding SC's play. You believe him when he says that his "stupidity"/"risky"/"drawing attention" doesn't make sense as scum. If you remove his 'role' (SK, vig, whatever) do you think it is possible for him to be scum? I could argue that his "stupidity/play, etc" doesn't make sense as town.

----

Regarding Dram-haylen:
I think at least one of them have to be scum at this point but I don't know if both makes sense. I was expecting something regarding global roleblock, superkill, or some kind of discussion, argument with it. Instead... it really does seem like 'lynch someone other than me, hey, there is SC-SK'.

Haylen: you said you had a case on magnus that got dropped by computer crash. Could we get that? You list Dram as scum (w/ MO), is there a case for that or just PoE?

Dram: yes, we know you want to lynch SC. Who is scum other than SC?

Tar:
1. I believe Glork reversed kill sanity and protection sanity (not investigation sanity). I also did not see where he claimed he had a 1-time global ability to reverse. Where is that from? I think I read through all of his posts twice but didn't see it in his posts. I will most likely investigate you to check my sanity but with 'reversability' global, psychologist, etc., i don't know if it is interpretable either way.
2. There are several superkill possibilities:

There is no superkill: Mafia killed ice. Haylen is mafia, global roleblock (lockdown is verified regarding night talk, mason talk) didn't affect scumteam. Lack of superkill doesn't mean anything regarding SC as vig or SK. There is still the issue of why Ice was the nightkill choice.

Mafia have superkill: it may specifically say that it works on NK immune/goes through protection, in which case, mafia knows that they can take care of SC-SK at any time they want. I really doubt it is unlimited if it belongs to mafia for balance reasons. If it is limited, why would mafia use it during global roleblock and on ice? Yes, it is important to get kills as mafia, but on Ice? If mafia have superkill, then they have no need to try to lynch SC-SK and could avoid him like the plague and try to lynch the people who do want to lynch him with "scum want to kill nk immune SK, so you guys must be scum". If you seriously believe mafia have superkill, do you seriously believe scum have to be voting SC-SK? In this interpretation, I think I could claim that 1-2 are scum who are not voting SC-SK... however it doesn't make sense for mafia to have the superkill to me... I just find it strange that you do.

SK has superkill: I consider this much more likely given Ice as the nightkill choice. SK wants to kill 'every night' ideally (in this case, he didn't submit a kill the first round on purpose, or mafia/SK targeted same person). When they kill, they don't want to pick the same target as scum. Ice is not a mafia kill choice on a roleblock night. I 100% believe you are town tar, but the fact that you 'lived' last night (as obvious target) is most likely due to global roleblock and scum attempted to kill you and SK killed ice. If I didnt get a "no result" as cop and you lived (plus no lockdown) I might suspect you simply because you are still alive but I do believe you are town, and that the lockdown (block all) did happen. The fact that it was Ice and not you who died leads me to believe SK exists and SK has superkill.
You also make the argument that ice's death and Yosarian (shot) are the same. SK could have a different kill flavor, or SK and mafia could have targeted the same person. I'm not 100% sure of my notes but DGB claimed something weird about kill flavor (was this due to your doc vig?) or DGB and SK both killed same person and DGB expected different flavor. Regardless, kill flavor comparison doesn't seem as solid as "why ice".

If SK has superkill, why wouldn't scum want to kill them? It could be SP psychologist (true claim) or MO ability (false or not full claim). The other possibility is haylen is lying and is a psychologist as well with medical admin as a fakeclaim. Ugh....

1 of haylen/Dram is likely scum. SC is SK. 1 of SP/MO is likely scum.

It is possible for haylen/Dram to be scum together (in which case, Dram is lying about his role and is psychologist who fakeclaim townie?) but I don't think I consider it that likely that they are scum together.


Corvuus
P.S. I did ask several times what people thought about superkill/roleblock since I believed SK-superkill, ice as SK night kill interpretation but I think only Tar mentioned it as well. Major scumpoints for Haylen/Dram for not mentioning it at all in your SC-SK cases, Haylen more so since you did lockdown and brought it up first yet... nothing now?
Okay, first off, on the list of things we need to know:
Mod, what happens if two players with different kill methods kill the same player overnight and both shots succeed?


It is a mystery! But a really crappy one. I believe it's been used in past games. Both kill methods would show...probably.


If only one kill method is shown and an SK (SC) is running around, I'll bet scum killed either Glork or Yos2 (the two strongest players), though I have no idea why their kill method did not appear (and the supposed SK kill method and the known insane doc kill method did appear).

If both kill methods would be shown... the only real possibilities assuming the existence of an SK are that the Mafia killed either farside22 (unlikely, I doubt Haylen is both Town and Sane) or - far more probably - that the Mafia killed StrangerCoug N1. THAT possibility would explain a whole lot, really - it would be just like Random Mafia 3, where the Mafia tried to get me lynched after being convinced I was SK due to their kill getting doc-stopped N1, except that the Mafia would KNOW SC was lying because he claimed not to receive any charges (unless the Mafia kill was insane, that is).

You've got the Mafia-only hypothesis correctly, and I'm leaning towards a Mafia superkill being impossible myself (doesn't make sense with this many protective roles, not to mention the SC issues). At this point, I'd favor a Haylen lynch over dram based on that.

Quick question: why are you assuming the use of the sanity reversal tonight? Vigging at LyLo is BAD, okay? If we lynch Mafia we can use it, otherwise I'm probably not using any abilities tonight.

Quick thought: If Magnus is town or any Mafiosos are insane, Mafia MUST have a role immune to sanity reversal and/or a role that can shift sanity. I'm increasingly convinced Mafia has a Psychologist (one of Socio, Haylen, and dram).

On Glork: Glork never claimed the protection sanity reversal per se, but considering that his role appears to be a near-exact mirror of my own (only question is starting sanity - I suspect Sane) and every other claimed Miller has or has claimed an infectious ability that reverses the sanity of the ability type or types they are a miller to for one night, I consider it logical to conclude that Glork had such an ability. (Yes, my ability reverses investigation sanity for one night.)

Also, Glork has reminded me to put Magnus more firmly into the potential scum pile...
Glork wrote:Tar, you are correct. Protective roles targeting me have their sanity reversed. So, um, if you know you protect sanely, please don't target me.

I have also considered the notion that the scums have at least one Miller role, which may reverse Investigations, Protections, and/or even Kills preformed on them, and I have concluded that this is a likely possibility.


I could tentatively support a Snow_Bunny wagon.
-----

Leaning towards a StrangerCoug lynch at the moment, but I'm not sold on it... protecting tonight risks sanity reversal if Magnus is scum, not protecting Corvuus risks a LyLo with no information, and I'm still not seeing a good way to choose between dram and Haylen (assuming only one is scum) at LyLo.

Unvote
(will revote sometime tomorrow)
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Post Post #1139 (isolation #42) » Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:37 pm

Post by Tarhalindur »

Corvuus wrote:MO: I agree with your sentiment in that you can't be scum and have that ability :P. I do think that, regardless of whether tar wants to vig, you should use it if you have it/town-aligned. I don't think I'll elaborate more except say there is 'saving grace' with you using it.

Haylen, Dram, SC: Only ones with votes... so make a case/do something or face lynch.

C
I'm pretty sure I know what you're referring to (have for a while, but I'm worried about an obvious risk related to an earlier thought of mine.)

Also, now that I actually think about it I'm pretty sure that only one of {Haylen, Magnus} can be town.
magnus_orion wrote:Also, assuming I'm scum, I would've totally used a global sanity reversal night 1
Hmm... do we have any way of knowing that you DIDN'T actually use it N1 before LyLo? AFAICT, there's no clear difference between "N1 normal" and "N1 sanity flipped, all players have opposite sanity from the one they think they have" that can be distinguised before D4...

Still, Haylen's more likely to be scum than you given play, and I've USED "scum NK excepted" on scum-directed global actions before.

I think I'm convinced.

Unvote, Vote: Haylen


Dram gets himself reverse-protected tonight, thank you very much. (Yes m_o, use the infectious.)

-----

Mafiosos: If you KNOW that StrangerCoug is a Serial Killer (due to, say, the Yos2 kill not being a Mafia kill), you should consider trueclaiming now (before Haylen gets lynched). Sure, you'll get lynched tomorrow (or vigged overnight), but if you DON'T claim now and tomorrow begins in Kingmaker (aka "4 or less alive, StrangerCoug claims SK" - a situation where town cannot win) then I will personally decide the Kingmaker in the SK's favor (probably via voting for nolynch, to give the town a chance in case StrangerCoug has limited immunity), and I encourage all other townies to make the same pledge.

That goes double for any Mafiosos named dramonic or Haylen - you're dead by tomorrow morning anyways, and you'll probably give your partner a better shot of winning by claiming now.
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