Newbie 937 ~ Mafia Lite [Game Over]

[skerterg]

Two people have brought up my vote on horrordude0215 at the end of day 1. The simplest explanation is that he was the one I was most suspicious of at the time. However, I had already mentioned that since he would likely not be lynched, I would switch my vote to Red Star if necessary. By the deadline I would switch to Red Star, only for the sake of lynching someone suspicious, not the most suspicious (by my thoughts). However, popsofctown hammered before I got the chance to log in and see Excedrin put his vote on Red Star; otherwise, I probably would have put Red Star at L-1, leaving Exilon to vote (probably for razorback). But, I wanted my vote to stay on horrordude0215 as long as possible to emphasize my point.

As of now, I am less suspicious of him, because on further thought his vote on ahoda wasn't that suspicious. Rather, it was the following people who voted for him who should be considered suspicious. Horrordude0215 just seemed to be looking for things to nitpick, confirmed by his vote for Excedrin. His L-1 vote I didn't like at all, but if he truly missed it as he said he did, his actions could be considered pro-town. I still am not willing to take his claim without skepticism.

Who could be paired with razorback? In my mind, it is someone who disagreed with him lightly but not that forcefully. I don't think it can be Red Star; he claims doctor with no counterclaim and I think that his discussion could not be staged. Maybe Excedrin, but I am quite convinced he is town: he did defend razorback and advocate lynching razorback, but I totally understand his point of view, as I did the same. popsofctown seemed the most to kind of defend razorback but not stick his neck out. Refer back to the three quotes I gave. Excedrin, the quotes I gave are not showing popsofctown's vote for razorback; it was his non-committal way of defending razorback. His vote is very spazzy to me. I don't think this is mafia behavior, because it does attract attention, but I don't think it is that good of town play either, especially since he is IC. At least comment on Red Star's claim before changing your vote to razorback! To me, it sounds like you didn't even take into account Red Star's claim as doctor and that your sole reason for changing your vote was because of the deadline.

kelikar and horrordude0215 can both be possible buddies of razorback. horror didn't have too much to say, IIRC, and neither did kelikar/KageLord. I'll need to do more analysis into their posts.

[KageLord]

Hm... alright, so I have two main suspects right now. I think it's either pops or Exilon. Pops is a suspect for the reasons that skert gave above and for not responding to those suspicions (at least not satisfactorily). If he's scum, the reasons would be either he has given up or he can't come up with valid arguments (doubt that it's the second). If he's not... it's just laziness or being busy or something?

The other suspect would be Exilon. Now I'm way less convinced for him, but he did seem pretty quick to jump on the pops wagon right there. I mean, skert and I had expressed suspicion already, but we hadn't even voted.

[KittyMo]

[2] popsofctown - (Red Star, Exilon)

[1] Exilon - (Excedrin)
[1] Excedrin - (horrordude0215)
[1] skerterg - (popsofctown)

[0] horrordude0215 - ()
[0] KageLord - ()
[0] Red Star - ()

[2]

Not Voting

- (KageLord, skerterg)

With

7

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

Deadline is at Friday, May 21, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Francisco time).

Prods & Replacements

Excedrin & horrordude0215 are proddable.

Note

Sorry on the lack of vote count. Had a really busy couple of days. :S

[KageLord]

And as for skert's suspicion on me and horror, I can tell you that I know kelikar wasn't scum. Not that you'd probably believe me. XD

If your problem with him was the lurking, then I don't know why you would still suspect him. After all, I'm pretty sure I haven't been lurking for the couple of days I've been in this game. And if kelikar had been razor's buddy, I don't know what he would have gained by not voting.

[KageLord]

Sorry for double post. Just realized that kelikar did vote... for razor. Now that still wouldn't seem suspicious to me. Maybe if he had held out then hammered at the end, he might seem scummy, but he was one of the first to vote him and stay. I have never heard of a scum strategy to vote early on your teammate... especially if he's a newbie who might just blurt out something like, "Hey man, why'd you vote for me? I thought we were a team." I'm pretty sure razor would have been pissed if it had been his teammate who did an early vote.

[horrordude0215]

Sorry about the lack of posting... I'll get a post down by tomorrow, I promise!

[skerterg]

I will post after horrordude0215. I have some thoughts and will state them later. But, horror, you've delayed quite a bit. Hope your school talent show went well!

[Exilon]

Now I'm way less convinced for him, but he did seem pretty quick to jump on the pops wagon right there. I mean, skert and I had expressed suspicion already, but we hadn't even voted.

You should remember I've been asking him stuff ever since Day 1 and never really got totally satisfied with it. His last post made me want to put some pressure, see if that helps with the "laziness". Also, what wagon? If there's no votes there is no wagon for me to jump aboard of.

[popsofctown]

It's not laziness so much as disinterest. I'm just not into this one, for some reason or other. Might be the wallposting, might be that I read razorback so poorly day 1, but I'm just not enjoying this game when I come to read and post in it so I'm doing so less.

I've answered all your questions best I could. Anymore you'd like to ask?

[horrordude0215]

Okay, I have a request... Can we keep the giant walls of text to a minimal please? Reading them at midnight isn't good on the eyes lol.

I really wish I had more to comment on, but after the posts between Excedrin and Exilion, I'm getting the feeling that it's Town V. Town there. Because of that,

Unvote

My defense can really only be that I often find little things to be scummy. Mind you, I'm usually wrong about them, but if I find a case I think is worth pursuing, I'll bring it up.

FoS: pops

There have been several cases on him so far, and I can agree with all of them... I'm not going to be a parrot.

Again, I'm going to apologize for my lack of much content here, but it is midnight and I'm not so sure how much I'm going to be on tomorrow due to it being mothers day and all.


And to all that care, my talent show went great! I had a lot of fun with it, and all of the contestants were amazing! (If anyone cares, they can see the video of my performance at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhrCxa9sB7A )

It's beautiful~ =] --KittyMo

[Exilon]

Congratulations, horror! That was a great performance =)

@Pops: What do you have to say about Skerterg's post, aka your top suspicion? Is there a reason why you aren't pressing Red Star for further information?

I'd personally like for Red Star to delve a little deeper in the game as well. His last two posts were to state he'd post his thoughts in a day (which never came) and to say he'll be V/LA.

[popsofctown]

Red Star is just probtown. It's just improbable he made a gambit.


Re skerberg's post: The sole reason for changing my vote was the deadline. There's nothing wrong with his last post, it's a nice post tbh. I just feel like razorback wasn't bussed. It's nice Skertberg doesn't read me as scum, but he could just be trying to appease me, I'm wary of that.

[popsofctown]

double post blah blah

~Kitty

[Exilon]

That's not what I mean XD You're voting Skerterg because of his vote, right?
What do you have to say about what he responded to that?

[popsofctown]

Oh, I don't care. I don't care why he was voting horrordude, I care that he wasn't voting razorback.

[KittyMo]

[2] popsofctown - (Red Star, Exilon)

[1] Exilon - (Excedrin)
[1] skerterg - (popsofctown)

[0] Excedrin - ()
[0] horrordude0215 - ()
[0] KageLord - ()
[0] Red Star - ()

[3]

Not Voting

- (horrordude0215, KageLord, skerterg)

With

7

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

Deadline is at Friday, May 21, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Francisco time).

Prods & Replacements

Excedrin has been prodded.

Evil is a point of view. ~ Anne Rice

[Excedrin]

horrordude0215, KageLord and skerterg, why aren't you voting?

Aside from Exilon, horrordude0215 has been recently somewhat low profile, but on d1 he dropped a few probable town tells. There's also very little in the way of a razorback horrordude0215 link. The same thing applies to kelikar/KageLord.

KittyMo, horrordude unvoted in his last post.

Fixed! Thank you~ --KittyMo

[skerterg]

Some quick notes, as I am leaving soon. I'll post more tonight if I get the time.

Currently, popsofctown's attitude bothers me. The tone of his posts just feels resigned. I can totally see him as mafia now; he made a few errors in trying to keep razorback alive that we have picked up on. Now, as the primary suspect, he doesn't have many places to hide. His vote on me doesn't seem to have that good a reason; I already explained the placement of my vote. His vote for razorback was just a desperate maneuver, since he didn't care that much anymore. This I can see.

However, I still want to wait a bit before I vote. Sometimes I feel like I know someone is scum, but then my views suddenly change. I'll post more of my thoughts later.

[KageLord]

Well, I think as a town our votes so far have been on the right track. I could see some reasoning behind each one of them. Even if we get a wrong one on this day, I think we have narrowed it down enough for the survivors to get the right one tomorrow.

And because of this resignation of pops, which might be consistent with him being scum or just a mood change (which can happen), he does not seem to be of much use to town anymore, even if he is one of us. At least with him gone we will have a clearer idea and not as much doubt in our voting.

Vote: popsofctown

[Excedrin]

With that vote, popsofctown is at L-1.

I still don't think he's a good lynch.

[horrordude0215]

horrordude0215, KageLord and skerterg, why aren't you voting?

My FoS was on a person that already had 2 votes, and with about a week and a half to go, I don't think we're quite ready to put him at L-1.

[skerterg]

SOAP #3
May 9, 2010

Sorry for this very lengthy post, but I had quite a bit to say. If you are really tired or really don't want to read this, skip to the bottom where I sum it up.

My suspicions have been growing for some time now; specifically, after Excedrin asked me who I thought could be scum-paired with razorback. I already said that I don't think Red Star can be the remaining scum, and I hold to that belief. I also doubt that Exilon and Excedrin are scum. The remaining ones are popsofctown, horrordude0215, and KageLord. I still remain suspicious of popsofctown, but I already stated my opinions on him. I mentioned in post 350 that "I'll need to do more analysis into their [horror's and kelikar/KageLord's] posts." What I did was take on the mind of the mafia while reading their posts ISO and imagining what I would say. During this process, I noted several very suspicious posts from kelikar.

First, there are some things I must note about the general characteristics of kelikar's posts. Much of the reasoning was far-fetched or very weak. Here are some example posts (refer to them in context to get a better idea):

Hmm... Maybe he thought that if he thought that if he OMGUS'd the IC, he would call unnecessary attention to himself, so he went for a newer player so that no one would think anything of it?

Definitely far fetched, but it's something to get us out of the RVS.

I did not understand this at all and think it has no susbstance to it. It really is "definitely far fetched." I also doubt that statement will get us out of RVS. Indeed, I think it was after the "ahoda affair" that we got out of RVS (around post 97). Anything before was either random vote or vote on lurkers.

If anyone is lurking, it's Kranix. He only has 2 posts: 1 to confirm and a random vote at post 76 on this page. Red Star has posted more than that and has even answered some of the questions thrown around, so it seems a little unreasonable to vote for him instead of Kranix...

In fact, I might even support a Kranix lynch not for lack of participating, but for lack of interest to participate. At the very least we can pressure him to post so we don't have a non-entity sitting around watching us point fingers the whole game.

Vote: Kranix

I never liked kelikar's stubborn insistence on Kranix. To me, it was obvious that Kranix would not be coming back, that he was inactive and would be replaced. The statement that "I might even support a Kranix lynch not for lack of participating, but for lack of interest to participate" didn't sit well with me. It is

always

easy to try to lynch someone who is unable to defend himself. He continues to insist again and again until his 19th post. Rather than give views on other people (admittedly, he did talk a bit about ahoda), he remains fixed on Kranix. His reasoning that "what would we do with him [Kranix] if we had gotten to endgame" (post 20) or that he would "[watch] us point fingers the whole game" (post 11) is irrelevant, because he won't get to the endgame. He will be replaced or will come back and start posting. Maybe I'm wrong for thinking it is so obvious, but put any thought into the issue and it should become clear.

I did not want to lynch Kranix, but merely pressure him to say something of use.

Actually, kelikar, you did (kind of): compare with your post 11. "I might even support a Kranix lynch." A bit inconsistent, I think. Now, it's not a blatant "I support a Kranix lynch," but it's pretty close.

Good job an a scum lynch guys!

RedStar: I figured what you said was complete WIFOM and I was planning on saying something about how devious your plan was, but I decided against it in case the mafia caught on.

I want to FoS skerterg naturally. He was probably the one defending razor the most, and really seemed to want to keep him alive. Pops didn't seem to truly want him alive, just kinda implying that it was a hilarious predicament.

Would definitely like an explanation from skerterg.

I read somewhere that the first to congratulate lynching scum was likely scum. Thus, more suspicion here. Also, I completely disagree with his point that I was more scummy that pops because I was the one defending him the most, and that pops didn't want him alive, just implying that it was a hilarious predicament. To me, the one who doesn't stick his neck out is more likely scum, so I would suspect popsofctown more for the very reasons that kelikar suspects me. (Replace "skerterg" with "Excedrin" if the fact that I'm commenting on myself is bothering you.)


Also, Excedrin, if you really want an example of someone trying to teach razorback, see this:

You seem a little quick to point your finger at horrordude. His question about which faction you prefer seemed like a scumhunting technique to me. Maybe it was to gauge how certain people feel toward playing a specific faction and compare it to how they're playing this game? Even if he was scum, he knows who town is, so asking which one they prefer isn't going to help them find the power roles if there are any. They'll just get information they already know.

I believe this was relatively early in the game. It definitely sounds like he is trying to instruct razorback. IIRC, Excedrin, one of the reasons you suspected Exilon was because he seemed to try to help razor at times. What are your views now on this? If you read more of kelikar's posts, I'm sure you'll find many instances where he addresses razorback in a similar way (post 20, for example). Also, kelikar is one who presses Red Star, I believe. If you want specific examples, ask me later; I didn't make a note of them and I'll have to go back and examine further. To note: I don't think I read any post by horror that would indicate he was trying to give hints to razorback.

Since I am running out of time, I'll just mention this: KageLord also seemed to have a guilty conscience. Look through his posts after Day 2 began. Also, in address to his post 354: yes, I do think it is possible (and even likely) that kelikar bussed razorback once he saw that razor wasn't learning. He was the third vote, after Red Star and horrordude0215, which isn't really early.


Bonus analysis on night kill:

Leafsnail also stated that he didn't think razorback and Red Star could be a pair. In fact, kelikar specifically asks him in post 181:

I want to ask you something Leafsnail. Do you agree with me that Red Star has been twisting certain people's words around to make them seem scummy, even though they seemed to relatively benign intentions? Also, why no read on me?

Leafsnail replies

I did say some stuff about Red Star... as I say, he looks quite scummy, but I don't see him as scum with razorback.

No read on you since you haven't really given me any strong town or scumtells.

If kelikar's purpose was to get Red Star lynched (since the only reason for not killing a claimed doctor is because of WIFOM; in the cases I examined earlier, I concluded that the best choice for either situation was to kill the doctor), then getting rid of Leafsnail would help.

If I were a reasonably smart scum, I would have killed kelikar, since I would hypothesize that Red Star would not defend kelikar. This would make Red Star seem very suspicious, and with some effort and luck he may be lynched the next day (especially since kelikar was advocating the scum pair razorback and Red Star--see his post 24). Of course, you couldn't kill kelikar if you were kelikar. So, instead of killing Red Star who was so sure of kelikar's innocence (after all, Red Star said he would protect kelikar), kelikar decided to kill Leafsnail who proved himself to be a good scum-hunter and who would believe Red Star's innocence once razorback flipped mafia.


TL;DR:

I think kelikar/KageLord is scum, because of his focus on the easy target Kranix, his attempts to teach razorback, his occasionally flawed (according to me) reasoning, and Kagelord's defensiveness/guilty conscience. Also, kelikar specifically asked Leafsnail's views, which make me think he was seeing if he would be worthy of a night kill.

---Scummiest---

KageLord
popsofctown
horrordude0215
Exilon
Excedrin
Red Star

---Cleanest---

N.B. I think Exilon and horrordude0215 are about equal in terms of scumminess (or cleaniless, for those "glass-half-fullers" out there).

The reason I delayed my opinions was to wait to see if KageLord would join the wagon on popsofctown (who I still think is suspicious, btw). An L-1 vote when there are two others (myself and horrordude0215) who already expressed their suspicions is equivalent to a hammer in my view. I was waiting to see if KageLord would put the third vote on pops. He did. My opinion is therefore strengthened with that vote.

I really hope that I am not tunnel-visioning this (as I saw Excedrin in one of the games he posted--that was heartbreaking, truly), but I have convinced myself that KageLord is scum. I'd say about a 50% on him, a 25% on pops, and the 25% on the others.

Vote KageLord

[horrordude0215]

Skerterg, you said in the beginning of your post that you were also going to look at my posts, but I don't see anything in there about me except saying that you more or less have a now neutral read on me. (I get this because you say that Exilon/I are in equal scumminess and in the middle of the list, so I assume that's neutral)

Why didn't you comment on me as well, and if what I said about the neutral read is true, what made you change your mind on me? Also, you wanted me to make a post before you posted your thoughts... why?

Vote: Skerterg

until I can get some answers to my questions

[popsofctown]

Skertberg's case looks really good. I should consider that the later votes on the razorback wagon may have been scum.

Skertberg is doing real scumhunting which you don't really see from scum.

unvote

. I'm not sure right now. I have a whole lot of townreads in this game.

[skerterg]

To horrordude0215: well, I looked at your posts and I didn't really find that much that would give indication that you could be the scum partner of razorback. Looking at your ISO, I see that you voted for razorback in post 23/24. In your next main post (27) you respond to my accusations. And...that's it. A few posts without that much content; check for yourself. Nothing that indicates you are defending razorback or trying to teach him. However, I guess you could be scum who just wanted to stay quiet during the whole process. Add the fact that you are specifically asking me this...and you have proven yourself to be more scummy than Exilon! Congratulations.

I guess my mind changed because of the ahoda vote. I really thought your reasoning wasn't that great and that you were looking for someone to lynch quickly (especially since ahoda is kind of like a less-useless razorback). However, on further thought, I guess you can't be blamed for Exilon, ahoda, and pops on joining. But your quick vote on Excedrin and me just proves to me that that's how you vote. If I accept your claim that your L-1 was a mistake, then I would have even less reason to vote for you. Now the only suspicion I would have is that you didn't post much of your thoughts during the razorback trials (as noted above).

I wanted to wait for your posts just as a way to delay having to put forth my case and my vote. By that point I already had the majority of kelikar's case in my head. Since Exilon put the L-2 vote, all I had to do was wait. I quite expected KageLord to put down a vote on pops, so I was biding my time to confirm my suspicions. I did not want to alert KageLord's suspicions by mentioning his name or saying that I would wait for his vote or something obvious. Also, I really did want to hear your opinions, since I did feel you were delaying for a while.

A quick note on my statement in post 367:

However, I still want to wait a bit before I vote. Sometimes I feel like I know someone is scum, but then my views suddenly change. I'll post more of my thoughts later.

I planned to make it seem like I would vote for popsofctown, so that KageLord might feel inclined to vote for pops and allow me to hammer. When I said "my views suddenly change," in fact I was not referring to my views on popsofctown (which is relatively constant and backed by the majority opinion) but to my views on kelikar/KageLord. This was a target that no one else had thought of before. Could I really be correct? Was I just blinding myself? If, by the end of the night, I still felt that way, I would post. Indeed, with KageLord's vote on popsofctown I felt much confirmed and comfortable with my post.