Newbie 937 ~ Mafia Lite [Game Over]

[skerterg]

Come on, am I the only one who realized this? And don't you guys read my posts? I mentioned this a few posts back when there were two days remaining. That's why I said I would post my FINAL thoughts on Thursday...

That said, here's my input before night falls. So far, there hasn't been someone that

really

stood out. There are many views floating around, as indicated by the diverse voting. I feel that this is an indication that the likelihood of being scum is distributed around. Therefore, look at all options and don't ignore anyone, no matter how town-like they are (unless they claim with no counterclaim...I still think Red Star is town. But if someone claims cop, be skeptical, since the mafia knows when it is safe to claim). Anyone can be mafia at this point.

I believe that pops will be lynched. Though I didn't feel he was as scummy as horror or KageLord, he wasn't that useful to the town and seems to have lost interest in the game. So I'm fine with this lynch. With nowhere better to go, let's see what he flips as and what the situation will be in day 3.

[KittyMo]

Vote Count XXXVI

[2] popsofctown - (Exilon, KageLord)

[2] KageLord - (skerterg, popsofctown)
[2] horrordude0215 - (Red Star, Excedrin)
[1] Excedrin - (horrordude0215)

[0] Exilon - ()
[0] Red Star - ()
[0] skerterg - ()

[0]

Not Voting

- ()

With

7

alive, it's

4

to lynch!

Deadline is at Friday, May 21, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Francisco time).

Prods & Replacements

Red Star has 21 hours to respond to his prod or the replacement search will begin.

The day was full of arguments, discussion, & new information.

However, the sunset came before the townsfolk were ready.

"It's Pops!"

"No, no, I'm sure it's KageLord!"

"It has to be horrordude!"

"How about Excedrin? He seems like scum!"



It was getting late, and the town had to come to a decision.

"Well...I said it was pops first!"

"All right, fine, we'll lynch him then!

"DIE, SCUM, DIE!!"

Popsofctown, Vanilla Townie, Lynched Day 2

It is now

Night 2. Action due date is Monday, May 24, 2010 at 7:00:00 PM (San Francisco time).

[KittyMo]

Due to lack of response from Red Star, I'm beginning the replacement search. Night will probably be extended, so stay tuned.

[KittyMo]

I got a response, so he's keeping the spot. =] Deadline stays the same.

[KittyMo]

As the second dawn falls down, a shadowy figure is standing to the side of a building, watching the lifeless corpse of that day's lynch still hanging.

He takes out a pack of cigarettes, and smokes yet another one. The numbers have thinned and he is one step closer of completing his objective. However, as the numbers thin, greater is the chance that he will get caught. Still, he has only one goal.

Taking a list from his pocket, he strikes a name written in cursive. ...and then, after carefully looking at it, strikes another one out.

He moves silently, into the night. His next victim won't even suspect his death is closer than what he first predicted.

The shadowy figure approaches the unsuspecting townie.
Not even a gasp was heard that night, but by morning, everyone knew one less was alive.

Horrordude0215, Vanilla Townie, Killed Night 2

The Vote Count has been cleared.

With

5

alive, it's

3

to lynch!

Deadline is at Monday, June 14, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

[Excedrin]

Prev day kinda sucked. It seems like Day 1 is best for analysis. I thought deadline was 8 PM Friday, not 8 AM. I would have posted (very) differently on Thursday if I didn't screw that up.

I know it's a weird suggestion but we should probably lynch Red Star today unless something crazy or particularly odd happens. Red Star mafia would be pretty funny considering d1, also would explain some of d2's difficulty (for me at least). The point is, it's time to more seriously consider fakeclaiming scum instead of giving him another free pass.

So, I guess we're left with a bunch of inactive players. I hope some of you will be more proactive on Day 3.

[horrordude0215]

BAH! Go town! I'll be keeping an eye on this game, though... see you all at endgame!

[Exilon]

That was... unexpected.
I didn't think Horror would die. I'm not too willing to go into nightkill analysis because it might be a little too much WIFOM, but I'm open for discussion. Skerterg?

Anyway, my top suspicions for now are Excedrin and Kagelord. For starters, Excedrin, would you answer my questions?

I feel that Red Star is indeed the Doc and that the remaining scum is doing a conscious effort to avoid his protection. Then again, fakeclaim is also a possibility - but it still seems unlinkely to me that Red Star is a fakeclaiming scum. The odds and the risk just don't fit. :s
Red Star should post way more, though. I want to hear from him, specially now that he's main target Day 2 isn't around anymore..

[KageLord]

Wow... did not expect Horror to be nightkilled. It seems kind of odd to me that the scum would kill off one of the main remaining suspects at this point.

And, like Excedrin, I'm becoming more suspicious of Red Star. He hasn't been very actively scumhunting and he apparently reappeared just in time to maintain his spot. The theory before was that he was left alive after Day 1 as a WIFOM to see if we would lynch him. He didn't even come close to being lynched on Day 2 (0 votes on him). If he was actually a doctor, Night 2 would have been a good time for scum to get rid of him. We know that there are three possibilities regarding him right now: he is scum, he is the doctor, or he is the worst townie ever. I don't know how long we should keep buying the WIFOM excuse (that he didn't even have to say) and giving him a free pass.

Now, I'm not saying he should be lynched today, but just that we should at least put some pressure on him to post something good.

HoS: Red Star

[KageLord]

double post blah blah

~ KittyMo

[Excedrin]

For starters, Excedrin, would you answer my questions?

I don't know, I might.

[skerterg]

Alright, I was in the process of writing a post analyzing possible ways of forcing a win when I realized that it would be best for cop (if there is one) to claim now and share results regardless of what he had. If he waits until next time, then there is no point, because it would be lylo and we cannot trust him. So, any information we have would be best of use now. Assuming that Red Star is confirmed doc, if the cop investigated two people then we have a forced win (detailed below). Otherwise, it becomes more difficult. I'll post my actual analysis on players, etc. later.

--------------------------------------------------------------

My attempt at seeing if town can force a victory. Note: I will assume Red Star is confirmed doctor. The rest of the post accepts this fact. If you wish to discuss the validity of this premise, post some of your arguments. Later I will post my thoughts on who I think is scum, my thoughts about Red Star, and so on. For now, though, I want to keep discussion focused on possible scenarios and whether we can force a win.

Total list of players:

razorback: Mafia goon (lynched Day 1)
Leafsnail: VT (killed Night 1)
popsofctown: VT (lynched Day 2)
horrordude0215: VT (killed Night 2)
Excedrin: ?
KageLord: ?
Exilon: ?
skerterg: ?
Red Star: Doctor


Players alive:
Excedrin: ?
KageLord: ?
Exilon: ?
skerterg: ?
Red Star: Doctor


Mafia (if roleblocker) obviously will not claim if not in lylo, as the cop will counterclaim. The cop (if there) had two nights to perform investigations. Obviously the cop did not find mafia, otherwise he would have said so by now.

Assume the best case scenario: two of the people he investigated are on the list and not named Red Star. Then, assuming Red Star is doctor, he knows automatically (by the process of elimination) who the remaining mafia is. Assume cop is Excedrin and he investiged KageLord and Exilon. Then the situation is:

Excedrin: claims cop
KageLord: VT
Exilon: VT
skerterg: ?
Red Star: Doctor

Therefore the mafia must be either Excedrin or skerterg. I would suggest killing Excedrin first, to confirm cop. If he is mafia, then we won! If he is cop, then we have two confirmed VT. Mafia must roleblock Red Star and kill one of the VT; even then, it should be clear that the mafia is skerterg. If Excedrin is VT, then I will punch his face through the internet.

So, if there is a cop, and he has investigated two people who are still alive and not named Red Star, then I think we have a forced win.


Assume a worse scenario: one person he investigated is still alive and not named Red Star. Possible situation:

Excedrin: claims cop
KageLord: VT
Exilon: ?
skerterg: ?
Red Star: Doctor

(Note: he could have investigated Red Star, which would just confirm what I assume.)

If we lynch Excedrin and he flips cop, then roleblocker will roleblock Red Star and kill KageLord, making a difficult situation at the end (between skerterg and Exilon). So I don't think we could lynch Excedrin.

We could try lynching Exilon or skerterg, but this leads to a similar situation. Say we lynch Exilon. He flips VT. Then mafia roleblocks Red Star, kills KageLord, and we are left with either Excedrin or skerterg as possible mafia, with Excedrin having claimed cop. Of course, now it is lylo, so it would be impossible to confirm. So, given this scenario, there is no forced win.


There could be a situation where there is no cop or everyone the cop investigated is dead or cop was roleblocked.

[this is where I realized that cop should reveal investigations, and so I stopped writing]

--------------------------------------------------------------

Also, on an unrelated note:

I would have posted (very) differently on Thursday if I didn't screw that up.

What do you mean by this?

I know it's a weird suggestion but we should probably lynch Red Star today unless something crazy or particularly odd happens. Red Star mafia would be pretty funny considering d1, also would explain some of d2's difficulty (for me at least). The point is, it's time to more seriously consider fakeclaiming scum instead of giving him another free pass.

I have to disagree with you and KageLord. He has done nothing but lurk (most of the time). It is not good, but it is not always a scumtell. I would like either of you to provide evidence that he is scum from the posts he wrote. I already have evidence that he is town; for a general case, look at the interaction between Red Star and razorback. Unless it is some very good acting, I cannot imagine them together. Also look at razorback's meta where he is scum. I think it is similar in that he focuses on one person, and that person was not mafia.

If he was actually a doctor, Night 2 would have been a good time for scum to get rid of him.

Why? If Red Star was kept alive Night 1, what makes it any different from being kept alive Night 2?

...or he is the worst townie ever

Though this is irrelevant, I've seen worse. For instance, there was a townie who claimed cop and got another townie lynched during LYLO. I'd say that's worse.

Now, I'm not saying he should be lynched today, but just that we should at least put some pressure on him to post something good.

Pressure is good, but you can't say you're pressuring or it becomes useless.

[skerterg]

Also, I guess Red Star should tell us whom he protected. But this should be done after cop, if there is one, tells us the results of his investigations. It gives less information (however little there is to be gained from it) to scum if he plans to fake claim.

[Excedrin]

I thought about that (re: cop) before my earlier post. You're missing 2 details, 1) it's possible for a cop to have zero inspection results on living players and 2) even if they did it's still possible that Red Star is scum (if we're in 7 townie setup or 6 townie 1 cop 2 maf setup).

Note that if a cop claimed now and we lynched anyone other than RedStar because there's 2 confirmed townies and RedStar is mafia, he'd kill the cop and claim he was blocked.

Really, setup speculation is a dead end. F11 is a good setup, if it was possible to get a forced win all the time it would kinda suck (aside from mafia roleblocker lynched d1 in cop+doc setup, neither PR killed on n1 sort of scenario (where it just turns into follow the cop)).

I see that you posted while I was writing this. There's a reason for RedStar to reveal his protect target, but it's not to reduce scum info. Also I don't think it matters if he claims it before or after a potential cop claim.

On Thursday, I would have moved my vote back to KageLord to avoid popsofctown lynch when I saw that nobody else was going to vote Horrordude. I had planned to move my vote back on Friday around 7:30 PM, but when I checked it was already N3. It's irrelevant info now, and I was obviously wrong about Horrordude (well, he was scummy, but not scum, he would have been an OK lynch, it's nice of scum to kill him for us).

I need Red Star to share his thoughts, then I'll probably be ready to vote.

So, since popsofctown was town*, I looked over some of KageLord's posts and this one stuck out:

#389
But alas, as I said before, I'm still confident the town will win even with a wrong lynch today. The only problem might come about if the person nightkilled is skert, who seems to be making the long examining posts. If both me and pops are innocent... well, then the scum can feel much safer, considering there are two big suspicions that aren't him.

Aside from having "

if

both me and pops are innocent", see #386 as well. KageLord, since you're now one of the survivors and it's narrowed down (you'll recall that I asked before why you thought it'd be an easy situation), what do you think? Who's scum and why?

* I'll explain this later, or upon request

[KageLord]

I thought about that (re: cop) before my earlier post. You're missing 2 details, 1) it's possible for a cop to have zero inspection results on living players and 2) even if they did it's still possible that Red Star is scum (if we're in 7 townie setup or 6 townie 1 cop 2 maf setup).

I was actually about to mention this when I figured it might be a possible trap to catch the scum. Don't ask me how I thought it could be a trap. skert always surprises me somehow. O.o

But yeah, it's a possibility that we are in a setup with no Cop. It is also possible we're in a setup with no Cop or Doctor. Either way, I don't see much point in a Cop keeping his identity a secret now if we have one.

Note that if a cop claimed now and we lynched anyone other than RedStar because there's 2 confirmed townies and RedStar is mafia, he'd kill the cop and claim he was blocked.

Really, setup speculation is a dead end. F11 is a good setup, if it was possible to get a forced win all the time it would kinda suck (aside from mafia roleblocker lynched d1 in cop+doc setup, neither PR killed on n1 sort of scenario (where it just turns into follow the cop)).

I see that you posted while I was writing this. There's a reason for RedStar to reveal his protect target, but it's not to reduce scum info. Also I don't think it matters if he claims it before or after a potential cop claim.

On Thursday, I would have moved my vote back to KageLord to avoid popsofctown lynch when I saw that nobody else was going to vote Horrordude. I had planned to move my vote back on Friday around 7:30 PM, but when I checked it was already N3. It's irrelevant info now, and I was obviously wrong about Horrordude (well, he was scummy, but not scum, he would have been an OK lynch, it's nice of scum to kill him for us).

I need Red Star to share his thoughts, then I'll probably be ready to vote.

So, since popsofctown was town*, I looked over some of KageLord's posts and this one stuck out:

#389
But alas, as I said before, I'm still confident the town will win even with a wrong lynch today. The only problem might come about if the person nightkilled is skert, who seems to be making the long examining posts. If both me and pops are innocent... well, then the scum can feel much safer, considering there are two big suspicions that aren't him.

Aside from having "

if

both me and pops are innocent", see #386 as well. KageLord, since you're now one of the survivors and it's narrowed down (you'll recall that I asked before why you thought it'd be an easy situation), what do you think? Who's scum and why?

* I'll explain this later, or upon request

Well, previously I had thought that it would be much easier at this point because if Red Star stayed alive until now, it would at least make town strongly consider him and they would force him to post something provocative. Then, let's say his post made sense and town believes he's the Doctor. Left is:

KageLord - ?
Exilon - ?
Excedrin - ?
skerterg - ?

Now, if one of these is a Cop, the win seems

almost

guaranteed (in the way that skert described). If not, let's say that I get lynched today and turn out to be town. Then skert is nightkilled. Well, just random guessing here would give a 50% chance of win. And, to make chances better, the whole thing would likely come down to Red Star's last post. To me, this seems like as good a chance as any to find out once and for all if he's fakeclaiming or not. Plus, good thing is, if there's a possible Doctor but no Cop, that means, for sure, no Roleblocker excuse.

As for who I think is scum, I would probably put Red Star as my number 1 suspicion. I know it seems bad that I'm still saying that even with no solid evidence, but... there it is. After that, I have a tie between two people I would rather not mention until we resolve this whole "is there a Cop" thing.

With all that being said, post #300 (sorry, not sure how to link a post) is one of the main reasons that I find Red Star so suspicious. The whole "Doc Diaries" thing is shoving it right in our faces, as if to say, "Seriously guys, I'm the Doctor. Believe me. It's true. And this is my plan to trick scum. What if it doesn't work? Uh oh... hope town doesn't make a bad move and lynch me.".

Two posts (of his) after that, he asks if someone is going to claim Cop. Why? I didn't really think enough to ask that before, but now I'm wondering why he would want the Cop to claim if there is/was one. If he was really Doctor and there was a Cop, that means the remaining scum is a Roleblocker. A Cop claiming there would basically mean that the Cop would be killed that night while the Doctor was blocked (for that night and every other night).

It just seems fishy to me. Is there a reason other than meta that makes you think he's the real Doctor, skert?

[KageLord]

Meta and his interaction with razor, that is.

[skerterg]

No, not really, KageLord. Though I believe his interaction with razor basically clears him. The meta just affirms my belief.

First of all, I would like to address the belief that if we get the wrong person today we have a 50% chance of winning next time, assuming three people are alive. I don't think this is true. I'd say we would have about a 32.33 (repeating, of course) chance of winning. Remember, even if you are 100% sure you know who the scum is (say you are cop), you would still have to convince the other person. If either of you votes incorrectly, then the scum will immediately hammer. So both will have to vote correctly (which has a 1/2 chance, so (1/2)^2 = 1/4 which is under 50%). Add to this fact that even when a person votes correctly, the other person might still be unconvinced and not vote on scum, which lowers the chance. However, hopefully the votes will not come randomly. So I'd say a percentage range in the 30's.

I guess there is a reason for cop not to show himself. Assuming he stays alive in day 4, he will know 100% who is scum, assuming he doesn't investigate the person who dies. This would raise the percentage level to about 50%, as then only the remaining townie would have to make a decision (since townie will not vote incorrectly). However, cop claims would have to be taken VERY skeptically; in fact, they should be ignored IMO.

Also, yes I considered those possibilities too about town setup, and yes, I know Red Star could possibly be scum, but I am willing to assume that he is doctor and start from there. With just the information we have, we could be in any of the four setups; our only confirmed role is a mafia goon, which is in all of them. And no traps for this, KageLord; since this is (almost) purely logic, you can't really tell scum. Even if their reasoning is bad, it could just be town who didn't think it through.

Also consider, there is been no real reason to kill Red Star, aside from his being a doctor. It is possible that mafia won't even bother roleblocking him (if there is a roleblocker) and instead choose someone that he wouldn't likely protect (like horrordude0215). But what threat is Red Star really to scum at this point, even if he is doctor? One reason I said Red Star should reveal after cop claim is that if Red Star chose to protect scum, then scum would want to keep him alive. Something like that. It gives more information on who Red Star suspects/doesn't suspect. Shall we give a deadline for cop claim, say, within three days? If there is no claim, then Red Star should say who he protected.

[KageLord]

No, not really, KageLord. Though I believe his interaction with razor basically clears him. The meta just affirms my belief.

First of all, I would like to address the belief that if we get the wrong person today we have a 50% chance of winning next time, assuming three people are alive. I don't think this is true. I'd say we would have about a 32.33 (repeating, of course) chance of winning. Remember, even if you are 100% sure you know who the scum is (say you are cop), you would still have to convince the other person. If either of you votes incorrectly, then the scum will immediately hammer. So both will have to vote correctly (which has a 1/2 chance, so (1/2)^2 = 1/4 which is under 50%). Add to this fact that even when a person votes correctly, the other person might still be unconvinced and not vote on scum, which lowers the chance. However, hopefully the votes will not come randomly. So I'd say a percentage range in the 30's.

Hm... I can see where you're coming from on that, but I thought about it in a different way. The way I meant to say it, by "random guessing", it would mean a townie would vote one of the other two. If no immediate hammer, he knows he hit scum. Randomly picking his vote would be a 50% chance.

But, you're right, it wouldn't work out just like that. The problem would come in if the other townie thinks his vote is scummy and votes him. Then immediate hammer and gg. So... yeah, not as easy as I thought.

I guess there is a reason for cop not to show himself. Assuming he stays alive in day 4, he will know 100% who is scum, assuming he doesn't investigate the person who dies. This would raise the percentage level to about 50%, as then only the remaining townie would have to make a decision (since townie will not vote incorrectly). However, cop claims would have to be taken VERY skeptically; in fact, they should be ignored IMO.

Also, yes I considered those possibilities too about town setup, and yes, I know Red Star could possibly be scum, but I am willing to assume that he is doctor and start from there. With just the information we have, we could be in any of the four setups; our only confirmed role is a mafia goon, which is in all of them. And no traps for this, KageLord; since this is (almost) purely logic, you can't really tell scum. Even if their reasoning is bad, it could just be town who didn't think it through.

Also consider, there is been no real reason to kill Red Star, aside from his being a doctor. It is possible that mafia won't even bother roleblocking him (if there is a roleblocker) and instead choose someone that he wouldn't likely protect (like horrordude0215). But what threat is Red Star really to scum at this point, even if he is doctor? One reason I said Red Star should reveal after cop claim is that if Red Star chose to protect scum, then scum would want to keep him alive. Something like that. It gives more information on who Red Star suspects/doesn't suspect. Shall we give a deadline for cop claim, say, within three days? If there is no claim, then Red Star should say who he protected.

Well... yeah, Red Star is no longer a threat to scum even if he is Doctor. Since, if we lynch wrong today and Red Star somehow protects the right person tonight, we will have 1 Goon, 2 Townies, and 1 Doctor left. We'll know the Doctor and one Townie, but then it comes down to 2 people and if we lynch wrong again, scum wins. Still, better than going in blind.

But I don't get the logic for keeping him alive night 2. What if he had guessed the right person? That would certainly give us more information (by clearing 2 people). Why risk it when you can just kill the Doc and leave 2 prime innocent suspects.

Also, instead of killing the Doctor, the scum killed one of the prime suspects. I don't know why they would do that.

[Excedrin]

If not, let's say that I get lynched today and turn out to be town.

There's a chance you won't turn out to be town?

[KageLord]

If not, let's say that I get lynched today and turn out to be town.

There's a chance you won't turn out to be town?

*sigh* I hope you're joking. I say it that way because obviously you won't believe I would flip town just because I say I will. Trying not to lead you. For further examples, see skert's possible forced win analysis post where he ends up being scum in one of the possible outcomes.

Also, V/LA from Saturday to Monday night. Chess is finally going to win me some money... I hope.

[skerterg]

Alright, I think I have my suspicions now; I'll type up my case tomorrow (possibly later--depends on how busy I am) and see what you all think.

I would like all of you to answer the questions addressed to you:

KageLord: Can you think (try very hard) of any reason why Red Star was kept alive for Night 1 and Night 2? (Assume he is really doctor). In other words, answer your own question:

But I don't get the logic for keeping him alive night 2. What if he had guessed the right person? That would certainly give us more information (by clearing 2 people). Why risk it when you can just kill the Doc and leave 2 prime innocent suspects.

Also, instead of killing the Doctor, the scum killed one of the prime suspects. I don't know why they would do that.

Excedrin: Why are you so willing to lynch a claimed doctor? Is it only because he stayed alive for so long? And do you expect us to believe your story that you would have changed your vote if you had judged the deadline correctly?

Exilon: What do you think about horror's death? I have my suspicions; I just want to compare them to yours. Also, between Excedrin and KageLord, who is your top choice and why?

Red Star: Why don't you post more?

[Red Star]

Sorry about not posting, I've been busy.
It would appear that two of the three of the top-scum suspects are dead.
Kagelord/Kelikar is currently my top suspicion, due to being the only survivor of a process of elimination.

However, I have a suspicion of skerterg, as well. The objective of scum is to survive, and the best possible method to stay alive is to convince town that you are a good, analytical townie. Also, the fact that he jumped on ahoda in his Post 8 makes me seem as if he's just picking an easy target.

I suspect everybody right now, but those are my main ones, Kagelord being on top.


My one question to everybody, should I say who I protected or wait to see if/when a cop claims?

[Excedrin]

Excedrin: Why are you so willing to lynch a claimed doctor? Is it only because he stayed alive for so long?

1) He's not proven doctor, he hasn't stopped a nightkill or anything, 2) he's scummy, 3) he's almost not playing, 4) it'd be awful to have him alive in final 3, 5) setup/NK speculation.

Note that I haven't said anything like "Red Star is my top suspect."

And do you expect us to believe your story that you would have changed your vote if you had judged the deadline correctly?

I don't care whether you believe it or not, it's irrelevant.

Red Star, saying who you protected (and why) is useful, I don't think you should wait.

[Exilon]

Sorry for not posting yesterday. What I said still stands on my last post.

Cop claim / Doc thing, etc. : I also think the cop should claim. Although I don't really believe there is one at the moment (due to the nightkills being on people one could predict would not be protected), it'd surely help alot, specially if we can confirm a townie. At this point, any help one can get is good. Of course, it's also possible we HAVE a cop and that Red Star is lying. That'd actually be consistent with the nightkills (Red star covering up that fact). but assuming Red Star is fakeclaiming in a cop2maf setup, he'd still have to pretend he's the roleblocker, and then again the deaths don't make as much sense as before.

I don't know if it'll be relevant or not if the cop claims before or after Red star shows who he protected.

Exilon: What do you think about horror's death? I have my suspicions; I just want to compare them to yours. Also, between Excedrin and KageLord, who is your top choice and why?

Well, my top suspicion is still up, actually. On my first post of today I said what I thought about Horror's death - I couldn't make much of it, and what I can is a little fuzzy.

I tried to place myself on scum's shoes. Assuming that Red Star is Town, then one of the four of us is scum. Leafsnail was killed Day 1 and Horror Day 2.

The main road to analyze this would be to look at his suspicions:
Leafsnail was suspecting Skerterg (and the rest of the players in his suspicion are now dead.)
Horror suspected Kagelord and Excedrin.

Skert-mafia moves up a little. But now, there's also another way to look at this. An intentional frame. (That's what nightkill analysis text I read somewhere refers to as Level 2 Nightkill).
Assume Skerterg is town, and is protected during the night. Best course of action is to kill the only person that suspected him and use it as a starting argument to get him lynched.

The only person now that openly suspects Skerterg is Red Star... attacking the best town player while still mantaining the appearance that he is the doc is indeed mighty convenient, I'd say.

Now - why would skerterg kill Horror? We can assume that the first night he wanted to avoid suspicion and the second night was intentional framing. Kagelord is skert's top suspicion, that death would only add to the motives to lynch Kagelord. Problem with this is, there's already enough pressure on Kagelord, enough to get him lynched, (as much as I can see), and there's also Horror which is a good target. So it is inconsistent that Skerterg wouldn't kill me or Excedrin or even Red Star instead during the night.

Kagelord was the person who replaced Kelikar, and that happened on Day 2. therefore, if he's scum, then Kelikar would be the one killing Leafsnail. USing reasoning above, I don't know if Kelikar would pull killing Leafsnail to frame skerterg, but I can see Kagelord killing Horror, with a small "if". First, it avoids a suspicion on him - next, he can use WIFOM and say that he was the next in line for a lynch. But that doesn't make sense. He could just kill one of the remaining three, or even Red Star, and Horror would still have some pressure on him.

Finally, there's Excedrin. He's my top choice between him and Kagelord, for various reasons, including my suspicion on him from Day 2 (and part of the counter-argument I presented to his case that still stands), and both nightkills are consistent with him.

First, a quick ISO reveals right from the get go that Excedrin had known Leafsnail before this game; he was also the one that pointed that one of the reasons to kill Leafsnail could have been because "he was a good player" (correct me if I'm wrong). For Horror, it seems safe for him to kill him, even if it's his top suspicion - first, he doesn't have to bother pressuring any more, second - Kagelord is still a little hanging for a lynch, and he begins the day by pointing out Red Star. And if all else fails, there's still me, which is (still) in temporary reprieve.

I can expand upon Excedrin's suspicion if need be, as I believe I have some points against him.

[KageLord]

KageLord: Can you think (try very hard) of any reason why Red Star was kept alive for Night 1 and Night 2? (Assume he is really doctor). In other words, answer your own question:

But I don't get the logic for keeping him alive night 2. What if he had guessed the right person? That would certainly give us more information (by clearing 2 people). Why risk it when you can just kill the Doc and leave 2 prime innocent suspects.

Also, instead of killing the Doctor, the scum killed one of the prime suspects. I don't know why they would do that.

I will do this as soon as we get some answers from Red Star. I know he just posted, but he has not replied to any of the suspicions against him, making him even more suspicious in my eyes. Also, just noting that his suspicion on me seems to be only because I'm the survivor of the main suspects from yesterday. No nightkill analysis on how being the only survivor would actually be a bad thing for me and thus, it seems, at least to me, a bad move to kill off the other prime suspect, instead of the "doctor" or lead scumhunter (skert).

Now, skert, I will answer your question. I just want to wait for Red Star to provide his defense first. Not much use asking him for a defense if I provide one for him, is it? Plus, I also want to know who he protected.