SOAP #5
May 29, 2010
Well, I said I made up my mind on who I thought was scum, and here it is:
Vote Exilon
I never really suspected him or investigated his posts in great detail, so maybe this is why he never caught my attention. I have a few arguments in my favor, which I have conveniently labeled for easier reference. Just the contentions are listed at the bottom, so you can skip to the end to get a summary if you don't want to read the whole thing.
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Contention 1: Looking at Exilon in isolation, I saw attempts at teaching razorback.
Since I pursued this for KageLord, it is only fair to pursue Exilon. I never looked at him before with this idea in mind, so when I did so for the first time I was surprised by what I found. Later, upon rereading day 2, I found Excedrin brought up some of these exact points. (Sorry, I must have brushed over them before). Excedrin, in post 320, pointed out that Exilon, in post 204, possibly tried to coach razorback.
Here they are, with further explanation by me:
See posts 58 and 59, where Exilon asks some questions to razorback and razorback answers, decently I feel. Not too strong evidence, but I don't see this too often from razorback...
Ah, here's a better one. The first person to defend razorback after he refused to answer horror's questions:
Exilon, p. 65 wrote:
Refusing to answer is one reaction which can give us lots of information, actually - maybe more than actually one or other answer he could have given to a question about game theory (but he did answer his question about scumhunting, even if there was one or two grains of salt). He pointed out what he thought - that he saw those questions as rolefishing. I don't really agree that it was rolefishing rather than an attempt to start discussion (and yey, it worked), but that's beside the point.
I guess this is a little WIFOM, but let's see: (just my quick analysis of it)
If he wanted to lay low (in case he was a power role), he could have just answered the question without giving away anything that could be revealing. If he was scum, rolefishing is favorable to them and therefore he could have, just as easily, answered the question, and no one would look at him for it, since everyone is doing the same thing.
Sure, he pointed a finger, but I guess it wasn't unreasoned, at least from his point of view.
Certainly, I feel Exilon is trying to deftly show that he was suspicious of razor yet still defend him.
Exilon, p. 169 wrote:
Now, let's see here. To remind, pops adressed Red Star's posts after and commented, "I think Red Star is pot-stirring while trying not to stick his neck out. I've got my eye on him.", FoS'ing him; Red Star does answer that that is because he's not trying to raise suspicions, but rather get discussion going.
But why would a person who wants to get discussion going retract upon my comment about his initial " possible suspicion"? Sure, it was a joke - but how does "maybe you are suspicious" "why?" "it was a joke, nevermind" contribute to get discussion going? Simply put, it doesn't; and that doesn't make much sense. It's like, if we follow what he said, he was trying to start discussion with the REST of the players but himself. Also, to notice, is that he didn't answer anything I posted after his first quote.
Not "why is it suspicious?" nor "have you noticed there's someone else with two people on them?". I do point that out briefly after it (Ps91:"Err... ok? I find that slightly wrong... but... "), but that's when Ahoda comes in, and suddenly that's where the focus is.
...
And, hum... Razorback gets a little one too many policy lynches ( asides from his ... peculiar writing style. I actually laughed alot at one point in one of the games where Razorback just couldn't get in right while trying to vote someone (first he misses the code, then he misses the word vote, the he misses the code again.. Aww, I shouldn't be laughing about it! <<) Which... doesn't really leave us with much information about meta to go on, since he behaves generally the same way.
His actions so far... not much I can say about it; yet.
Here Exilon attacks Red Star and continues to subtly defend razorback, saying that he is mostly lynched because of policy lynches.
And this one:
Exilon, p. 204 wrote:
Ok, sorry I didn't come here before. Suddenly Razorback is at L1, and, well... I can't say I don't agree with it. Although his past experiences (meta) show that he hasn't indeed survived past day 2 (mostly because of policy lynches, which I don't really like; since they can take away from valuable discussion and give a great excuse for scum to not discuss and just lay low), I can't let a player just sit by and do nothing, like he has been doing.
To tell the truth, I don't think Razorback is being overdefensive - each person has its own method of defending themselves. There has been, however, at one or two points, one or two comments from him that didn't fit quite well - and I figured, as he stated, that this could be in part caused to his cautiosness and past experiences. But nothing of the sort seems like being overdefensive - unless I'm getting the meaning of the word wrong.
In this section of this post, he seems to be advocating for razorback's lynch while also defending him; I think this was the post that Excedrin referred to. I would strongly advise you to read the whole thing; there are more sections where he tells razorback to do things such as scumhunting, etc. which I feel is teaching. Here is a segment:
Razorback, give us one post where you analyzed one player and tried to evaluate his scumminess. Just that is enough for me to believe that what you are saying is true. You can be doing all the scumhunting in the world, but if you don't post it, then it's the same as nothing. You can't accuse someone of paying you little attention without giving one example.
If you want more, ask me. There is at least one post that follows that one where Exilon specifically asks razorback to be productive.
And finally, there is the post where Exilon states that he is ready to vote. Over pages 8 through 10, it feels like Exilon is getting more and more frustrated with razorback, eventually to the point of getting rid of his buddy.
For reference, here is Exilon's response to Excedrin's point:
Exilon, p.322 wrote:
For me, his self-preservation and concern with survival wasn't THAT scummy, for reasons I posted. his lack of defense, on the other hand, is pretty much reason for me to suspect him. Coaching him? I was stating a fact. And am I the only one who told Razorback "that's not the way to go if you want to survive"?. I can see how you can consider that coaching, but really now, would I really just say "you're not defending, that's scummy, die scum" and vote him? This is a newbie game. People are learning. I'm not going to ignore the possibility he is just a midless, helpless townie who is frustrated with the fact he gets killed early every time. Which, by the way, was a very strong possibility at the time.
True, you are not the only one; that's why I suspected kelikar/KageLord. However, looking back, I found quite a few instances, more than others, if I may say so, of such behavior. I can list more than the above if you want me to. Also, it may just be me, but I felt razorback particularly responded quickly to you.
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Contention 2: Exilon had a motive in killing Leafsnail, who had stated, "Certainly, I find it interesting when someone accuses someone of being definate scum and yet holds the hammer off them." (his post 257; context is that Exilon had posted that he was ready to vote, in post 249).
The full post by Leafsnail:
Leafsnail, p.257 wrote:
I don't think we should hold off. I think anyone who feels sure razorback is scum should hammer. Discussion is always easier with one dead scum.
You might say it would reduce the info we get, but seeing who is prepared to hammer and who isn't provides a lot of info, especially if razorback flips scum. Certainly, I find it interesting when someone accuses someone of being definate scum and yet holds the hammer off them.
Of course, Leafsnail never specifically mentions Exilon, but I think that he would feel threatened by this. Perhaps Leafsnail would go after Exilon the next day because of this reason.
Exilon responds to this post in post 265. Here is the relevant portion:
Exilon, p.265 wrote:
First part he says "discussion is always easier with one dead scum.". Was I the only one who picked up on this and noticed Leafsnail does not even consider Razorback being town? Even if what he means is that he believes Razorback is scum (and notice how he doesn't really make any mention of his stance on him), then accoridng to what he said, he SHOULD HAVE VOTED ON HIM, and he didn't - so there seems to be some kind of contradiction here.
And on that second part - I don't know if he's addressing me or Red Star. If it's me, then it seems a litle iffy because I think I have explained myself and I didn't really say "Razorback is obviously scum", if I recall corectly, at least.
If it's Red Star, then it's interesting when in his next post Red Star votes. Could that be seen as some kind of message / taunt that Red Star picked up on?
Seems the reasoning is a bit wispy here. I read that Exilon is suggesting that Leafsnail could be razor's buddy, because he "does not even consider Razorback being town." This doesn't seem to be a substantial reason. Exilon also states that he never said razorback was obviously scum. Something doesn't feel right. Of course Exilon will respond that no, he wasn't sure. But before he was leading us all to believe that he had made up his decision to vote for razorback. I think Leafsnail was referring to the fact that if you decide that you will vote for razorback, then you should vote for him. Finally, the last portion is even crazier; is Exilon now suggesting a Red Star-Leafsnail scum team?
Exilon would not risk Leafsnail using this against him in Day 2, so he killed him.
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Contention 3: Exilon had a motive in keeping me and Red Star, the claimed doctor, alive, and in killing horrordude0215.
This is the crucial point that I don't think anyone brought up yet. I think Excedrin touched on it, but not to anywhere the depths I would like. Hmm...how to start? I'll begin the fact that I'm alive. I believe that Exilon intentionally kept me alive in hopes that I would pursue Excedrin (or maybe KageLord). Since I seemed quite persuasive, maybe I could form a good case against them that would convince other people of lynching that person. First, a quick note about potential scenarios: because I believe Red Star is doctor, that leaves either RB + doc and cop or GOON + doc. I'll be frank and reason that since I was one of the most pro-town/scumhunting players, that means there was a high chance that Red Star would protect me. Therefore, if Exilon wished to kill me and he was RB, then he would have to RB Red Star or risk having a save otherwise.
However, I am alive and horror is dead. Now I want to talk a bit about horror. He was one of the three players who seemed to have the highest likelihood of being scum. Why in the world would scum choose to kill him? It only eliminates one option for the town to lynch and forces us to look at other options. I think that quite a few of us would have wanted to look at horror in depth and possibly lynch him. Therefore there must have been another motive in killing him. I can think of several. First, because he was highly suspected, he would have a much lower (I'd say negligible) chance of being chosen by the doctor. This would make it safe for mafia to kill him and assume that their murder will be accomplished successfully. Also, even if there is a RB + cop and doc, that means that the RB can use his block on someone else besides Red Star, possibly a cop.
There is another motivation for killing horror. I know this is WIFOM, but I believe it has a strong basis in evidence. At the end of day 2, Exilon specifically asked me a question. Now, perhaps it's because I was the addressee of the question that I picked this up, but I feel it is important. Here's the quote:
Exilon, p. 446 wrote:
Skerterg:
Skerterg wrote: Also, a note: I'm pretty sure Excedrin was just pressuring you. Lots of his arguments did seem to contradict themselves; I'm sure even he will admit to it. Now, it may be because he was posting all his thoughts at once and didn't have time to reorganize them...
Does this make your view of Excedrin waver in any way? How can contradictions help to make a solid / consistent "case"? I do have an idea of why/how you'd say this, just want to see if it matches.
He is specifically judging me to see if I would be willing to push Excedrin. Indeed, if I didn't say that my view would waver, then I would stand a much higher chance of being taken out, perhaps. When I read this, I decided that I would try to show that I suspected Excedrin with this post:
Skerterg, p.447 wrote:
To Exilon: Taken just superficially, of course it would make Excedrin seem less pro-town. Bad reasoning/inconsistency is not supposed to be town behavior. Contradictions don't help his case; I think horror posted a few examples.
In truth, I never really suspected Excedrin and felt that he was very pro-town. His pressuring of horrordude0215 was indeed a good way to test his response and the response of others. To note: I do believe his story that he would have changed his vote to KageLord if he had known about the deadline.
Also, I never really indicated any suspicion at Exilon. More reason why he would want me alive.
Exilon tries to piggy back/prod me to post at the very start of day 3. Look here:
Exilon, p.457 wrote:
I didn't think Horror would die. I'm not too willing to go into nightkill analysis because it might be a little too much WIFOM, but I'm open for discussion. Skerterg?
Of course he didn't want to express his views; he wanted someone else to push for Excedrin lynch first. I think he was expecting me to say that Excedrin killed horror because horror was pointing out the flaws in his arguments and was voting for him (note: there still are flaws in his argument). I wanted to delay a bit and get him to reveal more of his thoughts; that's why I asked him that question. The question to the rest of you was just there so that his suspicion would not be aroused. The phrase "I'm open for discussion" reads "I don't want to express my views in case they go against Skerterg's, who I'm counting on to push a case against someone else."
There are other times I feel he just agrees with me. At the beginning of the day, he said he suspected KageLord and Excedrin, both of whom I made seem like I suspected (I really did suspect KageLord, and I just made it seem like I suspect Excedrin). Note also that he thinks Red Star's claim is correct, like me. He also agreed with me when I made my case against pops, and KageLord. When I made that case against ahoda, he essentially mimicked me, except he actually voted.
Finally, he would have no need of killing the doctor. If the doctor doesn't protect his target, then he is basically just regular townie. In fact, Red Star specifically mentions that he doesn't suspect Exilon in both day 1 and day 2; I'm too lazy to check, but I'm sure it's there.
Sorry if this contention seems a bit confusing; all the facts are kind of intertwined.
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TL;DR:
Contention 1: Looking at Exilon in isolation, I saw attempts at teaching razorback.
Contention 2: Exilon had a motive in killing Leafsnail, who had stated, "Certainly, I find it interesting when someone accuses someone of being definate scum and yet holds the hammer off them." (his post 257; context is that Exilon had posted that he was ready to vote, in post 249).
Contention 3: Exilon had a motive in keeping me and Red Star, the claimed doctor, alive, while killing horrordude0215.
Jeebuz, I've convinced myself pretty well. Let's lynch this remaining scum.
Nice way to cut off discussion for the town, there. </sarcasm>
