Newbie 958 ~Game over!

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 1.16

Earlder1 (4)

- LordChronos, ThatTumblweed, Coach Travis, Shadow Dancer

smashbro_of_the_SSS (1)

- Incognito

Shadow Dancer (1)

- brianj

brianj (1)

- Earlder1

Not Voting (2)

- remouk, smashbro_of_the_SSS

With nine players alive, five votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Saturday June 5 at 17:14 UTC.

[Coach Travis]

@Shadow Dancer:I didn't mean I'd vote with no reason. I meant if something else came up where I found someone else scummy, I'd be willing to switch my vote, and get that person out, but only if they seemed scummier than Earlder1. Basically, I'm expecting us to lynch Earl, but my vote isn't set in stone, is what I was saying.

And yeah, I never read through his other game, but from what he was saying I gathered that he had played very well, so that's what made me suspicious of him here, because he hasn't come across as an experienced player, good enough to be the first target of an NK, and so since we know he can do well as town, a total change in style like this means he could be scum.

[Incognito]

Back from V/LA. With Shadow Dancer's vote on Earlder1, he should claim in his next post. I am willing to hammer.

Shadow Dancer, is your post #178 directed at me? I couldn't tell cuz the post you ended up linking to was your very own post.

There are some situations where you have an incredibly anti-town player that is likely to do things that drastically hurt the town's chances to win and you know this early in the game when I would support a policy lynch.

Well, if a person was acting incredibly anti-town, wouldn't you at that point begin to consider that maybe just maybe that person might be scum? Just curious.

I don't know, I've just always been slow to vote outside of RVS, like I'm afraid it could cause some bandwagon and backfire on me or something.

Can you explain this a bit further? How would a bandwagon that forms after you place a vote backfire on you?

-~-~-~

smashbro: Do you have any additional thoughts about anyone else? Your initial analysis made it seem to me like you were slightly suspicious of Shadow Dancer/Alta and very suspicious of Lord Chronos but now that you've unvoted, I'm not entirely sure who your top suspect is at the moment. What do you think of Earlder1?

[Coach Travis]

@Incognito:I think what I was referring to there, was because I knew my vote would be putting someone close to lynch(because Earl was the only one I had good reasons to vote for), I would feel bad if we got two immediate votes afterward to hammer him before I had a chance to unvote, and he turns up town, Of course, I realize that wouldn't happen anyway because scum wouldn't be that obvious, but I don't know, I just worry a lot. Basically, it was just one of those times where I typed something without really thinking it through, and I'm mostly just cautious, but realize I need to get over that if I want to help the town catch scum.

[brianj]

Quick drop-in.

#194: Not really. Shadow Dancer clearly is more involved than Alta, providing his opinion about most of the players and discussion going on- whether it will be defined as town-tell or scum-tell only the time will tell. However I just wanted to point out few details about him I felt little uncomfortable with, since he will naturally be compared to Alta he just replaced which may cause some people to prematurely judge him as pro-town.

When he mentioned Alta in his fourth post or tenth post, I somewhat feel that Shadow Dancer tried too hard to distance himself from Alta's actions, going as far as to say he would have "proposed a policy lynch on him" and "vote Alta [himself]" while also simultaneously trying to make justification behind Alta's behaviour ("It's players like him that lose games for town...", "I think I can also read from his comments that he was just too impatient for this forum with its slow paced games"). Of course, it is duty of Townie to make himself as much as clear as possible and Alta was quite suspicious so I suppose this behaviour is acceptable, but the way he worded the sentences makes me feel that he over-emphasized his cluelessness over his replacement's behaviour.

This is why if anyone should wish to hammer Earlder1, he or she should read through the meta he referred just to check if his argument is valid. I personally would like to read through that game myself, but like I stated I do not have enough time for this right now.

However, I also wanted to mention how both

Shadow Dancer

and

smashbro_of_the_SSS

fos'd Lord Chronos. To be honest I don't like the idea of "towniest" townie; nobody is never clear til they are dead, and the three players I missed in my previous analysis was being too much overshadowed by likes of Earlder1, Alta, and remouk for my liking (as in, not many people seemed to be focusing on picking apart those three people's behaviours). The way that both replacements opened up an new avenue of discussion seems pretty town-like to me.

[Shadow Dancer]

@brianj: I wasn't FoSing

L

C, I was FoSing

T

C.. That obviously doesn't make sense though... But from context you could have dedicated that what I really wanted to do was:

(unFoS LC/TC), FoS CT

...

About Alta: Sadly I always feel clueless when it comes to explaining incredibly dumb behaviour. If you do not like my clumsy explanation attemts you can surely come up with better ones.

@Inco:

Shadow Dancer, is your post #178 directed at me? I couldn't tell cuz the post you ended up linking to was your very own post.

No I was referring to CT's incredibly wishy-washy post here.

Which of your posts were you thinking I referred to?

And what is your reasoning for the hammer? I know Earl has been your top suspect for a while now, but IMO there is still a fine line between suspecting some one and being willing to lynch that one.

[Shadow Dancer]

I also want TTW to show up and give her opinion first.

Speaking of TTW, I also want to comment on this:

To be honest I don't like the idea of "towniest" townie.

It definitely is a very helpful concept, though mostly for D1. Basically it's the "role" Earl had in farside's game. It made him both number one mafia and doctor target for N1, eventually preventing a night kill early in the game. Though that does not neccesarily happen, it makes mafia play foir N1 more predictable and thus easier preventable (if there's a doc) and evaluatable (is that a word?).

In most games D1 boils down to "gut reads" on people, any way. If gut reads can cause lynches, there is no reason not to declare some one "most townish" based on gut reads.

I think you will agree with me, that lynching TTW is out of question atm (though her promissed an analysis for sunday [or maybe monday] and hasn't done it so far ).

Please show up, TTW, this game is boiling up right now. You surely want to utter an opinion.

[Incognito]

Coach Travis, I see. I don't really see that as being something to worry about though - basically, if it DID happen, I'd actually argue that that's something that we might WANT to happen because it would easily expose the scums the very next Day. With the slower more methodical way people have been playing this game, I would think it would be completely out of character for anyone to do what you've indicated, and I'd really only expect scum to pile on two quick votes for a hammer the way you've said. And that would be a plus overall even if we did lose someone who was town to a D1 lynch.

Which of your posts were you thinking I referred to?

I had no clue and that's why I asked haha. Since you made that post directly after I announced I would be V/LA, I thought you were directing it at me. That's why I was confused because I thought I always made my stance on Earlder1 extremely clear but your post (if directed at me) seemed to indicate that you thought otherwise.

And what is your reasoning for the hammer? I know Earl has been your top suspect for a while now, but IMO there is still a fine line between suspecting some one and being willing to lynch that one.

I could go for either a him-lynch or a smashbro-lynch right now since I think they both have the highest chance of being scum but since Earlder1 has the largest wagon, I'm fine with lynching him for Today instead of shifting the wagon to someone completely new.

I'd also like to note that I could see the potential for an Earlder1 and Leech/smashbro pairing, which makes either one of their lynches extremely informative in the long run too if we're right - Earlder1 was probably the only person in the game to think Leech's long post was town-ish (mostly everyone else thought it was neutral at best), and smashbro's opening analysis didn't even touch on Earlder1 despite the fact that he's been the subject of attention for pretty much all of D1. Also, I'm noticing some differences in Earlder1's play here and the game I just modded him in - he seemed a lot more involved in that game and much more detached here.

[Shadow Dancer]

That's one of the points I also found remarkable in comparison to his play in farside's game.

I haven't looked over the other one, yet, for on the one hand I saw he replaced out of it and on the other had I saw you moderated, so I thought you might pick it up yourself.

That you draw a similar conclusion makes me even more confident in my case, though.

@Earl: You said you'd be back on monday. At least give us an "Back fromV/LA and preparing to defend myself" kind of post or something. Just flaking out is really lame.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 1.17

Earlder1 (4)

- LordChronos, ThatTumblweed, Coach Travis, Shadow Dancer

smashbro_of_the_SSS (1)

- Incognito

Shadow Dancer (1)

- brianj

brianj (1)

- Earlder1

Not Voting (2)

- remouk, smashbro_of_the_SSS

With nine players alive, five votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Saturday June 5 at 17:14 UTC.

remouk has been prodded.

ThatTumblweed has requested replacement.

[Incognito]

ThatTumblweed has requested replacement.

[Earlder1]

Well sorry for the delay. I'm actually very sick right now so this post is not going to be very involved. I would like to make a few points though.

1. I have nothing to claim, I am a townie. I know this is the nail in my coffin, but so be it I suppose.

2. The probbaly reason for my poor and seemingly differnt play in this game is the enormous pressure I suffered through early on. I was never a real suspect in my newbie 919 game and in Incog's game, I was sure of the scum because of my role so that is where my confidence came from.

3. I apologize for my play and I know there is no getting out of a lynch. I am town however, so yeah, I'm sorry for causing a townie death day 1.

4. I am going to list my final reads on everyone so that you can use this information after I flip town.

Thattumbleweed- still town, even though she replaced out

Incog- town, but just remember he is quite experienced so don't discount him

Coach Travis- kind of scummy now, I don't like the way he said he would be willing to change his vote if everyone else did and then gave a lame excuse for it. He seems more removed form the game that I am, due to his "nature" of being passive. Also, iso him and see his opinions on me develop. At first he doesn't suspect me, but then as the game progresses, suddenly he thinks I'm scummy and doesn't give any strong reasons why. Keep an eye out on him.

Alta/shadowdancer- townish, I think his recent contributions outweight Alta's inconsistencies and I am getting a pretty town vibe from him.

Leech/smash- Well, I thought Leech was alright, but I don't like smash's play. He introduces a big post with people he suspects but then drops it as soon as Lord Chronos rebutals. This makes me weary because I don't see how he could have really believed in his case to begin with if he's willing to be disuaded so easily.

Lord Chronos - Townish. His posts are fine, even though I somewhat agree with some of what smash brough up. A lot of them are just prodding others and he has only really developed an opinion on me (the agreed upon most scummy player). Despite this, he is still analytical in nature and logical, as good town should be. My read is weak on him but I would lean him towards town.

Brianj- Well, perhaps I was mistaken with my initial read. Brian seems alright. Regardless I am not convinced either way that he is scum or town because, frankly, I could see him as either. I will therefore, remove my vote and claim a neutral read on him.

Unvote

Remouk- He is quite an interesting character. His content is pretty bad and has only developed a weak case against Incog, which I don't agree with. I don't know what to make of him but those of you remaining should doa meta search on him. I think this would be quite beneficial when placing his playstyle because I don't know what ot make of it right now. This is obviously not his first game because he is a "goon" and only has 10 posts in this game. Research him!

So alright then, it's been fun and I feel dumb for being lynched day 1 as town. Oh well though, I can't blame you. Hopefully my final words are helpful for scumhunting after my death. Good luck town! GG.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

smashbro: Do you have any additional thoughts about anyone else? Your initial analysis made it seem to me like you were slightly suspicious of Shadow Dancer/Alta and very suspicious of Lord Chronos but now that you've unvoted, I'm not entirely sure who your top suspect is at the moment. What do you think of Earlder1?

I do have some opinions of who is very townie, which I'll leave out, because I usually don't like to put that out there.

Yes, that was my view when I made that post. I don't believe that there is enough info on Lord Chronos to make a solid case to hold up Day 1, so I'm going to be watching him, but that's all for now.

I have no clear top suspect, though Shadow Dancer / Alta is high on my list. As for Earlder, I would support the lynch, but I'm somewhat torn. His most recent post screams town at me, but a little too much. Possibly an appeal to emotion, and I think that if his other posts were more like that one, he would have faired better. But, based off of the meta, he should know better. I don't like how he is playing somewhat scummy on purpose, so I would support the lynch, but not enough to hammer.

So, as of now, I'd have to say my top three include Shadow Dancer / Alta, Lord Chronos, and remouk, after reading over once more. Earlder is playing somewhat scummy, and I can't get a definite read of him. Worst case for the lynch is that some confusion is gone, best case is that he was actually scum.

[Coach Travis]

Earl's latest post actually reminds me of what I was like in L-1 in my first game:Regretful of how he played, doesn't have anything to claim, gives one last analysis, and doesn't really try to get out of it. Interesting, because I was town when I did this same thing, though I'm hoping he's just trying to make us feel guilty for lynching him, and he does turn up scum. Either way, we need a day 1 lynch, and even if he's town we at least learn something, and the list of potential scum gets narrowed down a bit.

[remouk]

I did a fast catch-up, I'll take the time to re-read more carefuly.

First, I don't have a strong scum feeling against Earlder1, so I won't hammer.

Also, I unvoted Incognito because yes, my vote was weak, but it was better than nothing and I wanted to see the reactions. Nothing particular came up, so I unvoted. Beside of that, I agree with his point of view about policy lynching.

I have a bad feeling about Shadow Dancer, but I can't explain it. Maybe because he looks so confident. I'm tempted to vote against him.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 1.17

Earlder1 (4)

- LordChronos, ThatTumblweed, Coach Travis, Shadow Dancer

smashbro_of_the_SSS (1)

- Incognito

Shadow Dancer (1)

- brianj

Not Voting (3)

- remouk, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Earlder1

With nine players alive, five votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Saturday June 5 at 17:14 UTC.

Still looking for a replacement for ThatTumblweed.

[LordChronos]

@remouk

I really don't see how confidence is a scumtell. The best town players I have seen and played with have pretty much all been confident. Why do you think him being confident is a scumtell?

@smashbro

That is the first time you have mentioned remouk, could you elaborate on why you find him scummy?

@Incog

I might sometimes, yes.

@CT
I have seen posts like Earlder's last from new town players, yes, but I have also seen them from scum. He really didn't respond to anything said against him or try to fight against his lynch, but just gave up.

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

I have a bad feeling about Shadow Dancer, but I can't explain it. Maybe because he looks so confident. I'm tempted to vote against him.

What reason do you not have for voting him, if this is a scummy read for you?

@smashbro

That is the first time you have mentioned remouk, could you elaborate on why you find him scummy?

He has stayed relatively quiet throughout the game, and aside from his case on Incognito, he has given little information about who he finds scummy. I'm looking to see more from him.

[Incognito]

I agree that Earlder1's last post seems really town right now too but with the vanilla claim and the deadline falling this Saturday, I'm extremely reluctant to shift the wagon to someone new - the risk is just too great. If he does end up flipping scum, then that's good obviously, but if he flips town then at the very least we'll gain a lot of info from his lynch.

@smashbro: Fair enough.

-~-~-~-~-~

I don't see how confidence is a scum-tell either. I too would like remouk to elaborate on that read a bit more if he can before the deadline arrives.

[Nikanor]

DTMaster replaces ThatTumblweed. Merci mille fois!

[DTMaster]

I'm the replacement. Sup. Will reread.

Unvote

from a quick skim I see L-1. I want my thoughts down before a hammer falls.

[brianj]

Dropping into say I will not be able to contribute until June 7th or 8th. Hopefully the day seems to be nearing the end so I won't be missing much while I'm gone >.>

If I do not post after the date I mentioned, replace me immediately. I am serious.

[Shadow Dancer]

*Yawn* I'm tired...

Earl's post is clearly na appeal to emotion... That's a null tell at best, definitely something mafia would try. I almost feel sorry for killing him, but emotion is a bad guide in a mafia game.
I still believe in my case. It's all I could wish for D1. I still believe Earl's mafia. He's not even trying to defend himself. Resignation upon death threat

is

a scumtell IMO.

Only thing that bothers me is his weak claim. I'd have expected a cop or doc claim from mafia to provoce a premature counter claim from town... But mafia doesn't go by a book "things mafia should always do in this and that situation"... Scum hunting would be way too easy then...

For the unlikely case that Earl flips town: At least his final claims and reads can be evaluated then and are not just some untrustworthy white noise...

I also do not think we have any promissing alternate waggon thatcould be brought to a lynch before deadline...

I think DTM should be allowed to catch up and give his opinion before we lynch.

@DTM: Hi.

remouk is still diving low and indecisive... I begin to dislike that a little... He also does not even mention Earl in his last post. Pretty uncaring, considering he's the wggon of the day and close to lynch.
I consider not taking stances towards that fact scummy in itself, because he can claim any opinion about Earl on D2 this way.

@remouk: What is your actual opinion about Earl?

[Earlder1]

Well, I'm still here and just want to point out a few things.

@brianj

Why will you have no access? Could you drop in at all?

@ Incog

I understand that there is a shortage of lynch candidates. Personally, I would support a CT lynch beause he is who I find scummiest. I would to a lesser degree support a Remouk or smash lynch but that's mainly because it would save me. Honestly, I am not confident lynching either of them but I would like to survive.

Welcome DTMaster. Your insights will much be appreciated.

[remouk]

I didn't vote Shadow Dancer because I couldn't find what bothered me. I've ISOed him a little bit:

Since the begining, he explicitely said he had a town read on Earl, but then, he suddently votes against him with a case only based on another game, and the fact that he has experience in the IRL game. I played a lot IRL at Werewolves (which is kinda the same thing as Mafia), and playing here is totally different, the forum changes everything. Also, winning your first game doesn't mean your a good player (I won my first game, and considering the suspicions I arise, I can defenitely say I'm not a good player...).

It looked like a weak reason to put him L-1:

vote Shadow Dancer

@Shadow Dancer: I gave my opinion about Earlder1. I don't have a scum read on him. He did a few suspicious things but at this point, I don't see them as scum-tells.