I can see how choosing horror might seem like a safe option for scum, but I'm still suspicious of it. I mean, you were saying how it was unlikely that Red Star is scum because of the great risk in fake-claiming doc and the risk involved in not killing the doc is what's making me suspicious. Granted, the risk in the former is much greater, but I would think that the safest play for scum would be to kill the doc and the lead scumhunter. By the whole 'Doc Diaries' thing, we know that Red Star likes to do unexpected things (he mentions how he tried to trick scum (weird that you would tell them your strategy, but go figure)) to possibly throw off scum. So, there would always be the chance that he would do the most unexpected thing and protect the person he suspected, or claimed to suspect. I don't know... maybe I'm just looking at this if the scum wanted the safest route, instead of the 'greater risk, greater reward' route.skerterg wrote:Sorry for quote-sniping but I feel this summarizes your whole post. Basically, if Red Star doesn't choose the same person that the mafia does, the mafia has no need of killing Red Star. In this case, for Night 2, horror's death was unexpected. I would think that a doctor would protect either me, Excedrin, or Exilon. Therefore it is very safe for the mafia to choose horror, since Red Star won't protect him. This rule applies to both RB and goon scenario: he can now use his roleblock elsewhere.KageLord wrote:Why keep someone alive that has an increasing chance of saving someone and removing himself and that person from suspicion (killing 3 birds with one stone)?
Another possible reason for keeping Red Star alive is that the scum might be someone he doesn't suspect. This is why I pointed the finger at Exilon; Red Star stated that he didn't think Exilon was scum and even protected him Night 1. Also, Exilon is mafia, he wouldn't have needed to kill me night 1; I put him as the most pro-town player.
This doesn't work if the setup is 1 doc vs 2 goons. Hypothetically: If Exilon, KageLord or Excedrin is scum, then Red Star would be doc and killing skerterg seems prev night seems dangerous (high chance that Red Star protected him (until Red Star's 1st post this day)). hyposcumExilon might exclude skerterg due to fear of protect and pick horrordude over KageLord and Red Star because horrordude wasn't suspected as much as KageLord/Red Star previous day. Likewise, killing Excedrin would draw attention since I suspect Exilon.KageLord wrote:As for scum not needing to kill you if Exilon is scum, I doubt that. Sure, you might have thought he was town then, but safest play (again, maybe I'm looking at it wrong and this is big risk-taking scum) would probably be to take out the most active scumhunter. Not only does this get rid of a major threat to your later success, but since you thought he was the most pro-town, it might clear him of suspicion if we tried NK analysis.
I don't think I'd kill the easier mislynch target :sbecause horrordude wasn't suspected as much as KageLord/Red Star previous day
If I remember correctly, I'd been asking for an earlier postof his where had made a case against Red Star. Yes, I did ask him to be productive (several times), just like I'd ask anyone who showed signs of disinterest, like Ahoda. I wasn't really the "only" guy he listened too. I just got the feeling Razorback was kind of a lost case, really. Still, no biggie in trying to make him post. If it wasn't a newbie game, I'd probably have another kind of behaviour.skerterg wrote: Now Exilon specifically addresses razorback and basically tries to force him to post his case, from what I feel. Also to note: razorback posts shortly afterwards that huge block of Red Star quotes. I feel he is following Exilon's instructions--actually, he is following his instructions. Whether it's because they are scum buddies or because he actually listens for a change I don't know; I suspect it's the former.
I was very indecisive about Razorback. For reasons stated: because of his meta, his overall playstyle, and because of people ganging up on him. He seemed like a very good mislynch target and although it'd probably be for the best if he was out the game (so, a policy lynch), it wouldn't be a very productive day. Specially when there are no associative tells to get from NKills.skerterg wrote: Post 20: Read the post; I feel he is trying to defend razor while still seeming like he is attacking him. He starts "Suddenly Razorback is at L1, and, well... I can't say I don't agree with it" but then states Although his past experiences (meta) show that he hasn't indeed survived past day 2 (mostly because of policy lynches, which I don't really like; since they can take away from valuable discussion and give a great excuse for scum to not discuss and just lay low)" which is basically a defense of razor. He explains in his next paragraph that he doesn't think Razorback is overdefensive. There there is a bit of an attack on Red Star.
This is weird, scumslip? Why would scum have to pretend to be anything other than townie (or doctor in Red Star's case)?Exilon wrote:...but assuming Red Star is fakeclaiming in a cop2maf setup, he'd still have to pretend he's the roleblocker, and then again the deaths don't make as much sense as before.
Just a few things in this post that I wanted to have clarified:Exilon wrote: Problem is, if you're the one who's scum, then it seems fairly obvious you can get Skerterg to follow you into lynching Kagelord if by any chance you can't lynch Red Star instead (I'm believing Red Star will be killed tonight, if he's indeed the doc, furthering your "distancing"). Right now, I don't think town can afford a mislynch (specially not mine), as it'll leave very doubtful players remaining.
If Kagelord is town, then he can be a "easy" mislynch target. (Assuming the remaining players are you and skerterg, who seem to have town reads on each other.).
If it is the three of us, instead, then we can probably go all out without fear of a mislynch. I guess that what I'm suggesting is, if we have to choose a lynch just for a lynch, then Kagelord would be the best option. First, he has the motive for killing Horror, and lynching him would clear up any doubts we have about him. Or Skerterg as he is the best town player and it clears up many "doubts", besides making Red Star a useful doc by providing unclear protection during the night - which will most likely lead to his death, clearing up that he's the doc, or, in case he doesn't get killed, we get a confirmed townie.
What I'm getting at is - Let's lynch scum instead.
tl; dr: I didn't like your suggestion for the pure fact that you only want to lynch me to thin down numbers, at least from what's readable from your post.
3. Post 183, once more by Skerterg. Now this is interesting. Skerterg mentions in his 5th paragraph that 'I try to convince myself that Razorback is NOT Mafia.' Why would Skerterg say this? It seems to be an attempt to give people the impression, 'Oh, I don't know, ignore my views on this guy' He also gives minimal information on Razor in all his posts. Can't think of anything? Maybe. Trying to avoid mentioning Razor? Maybe.Verdict:I don't really have much to say on razor.Hemay seemdefensive, butmaybehe is just very cautious.Maybe thisis his playstyle.
Weird all around. I agree with the part that the "you can't know I'm scum", on his own, gives a very bad vibe, but it's a normal answer I'd expect to hear from someone who's been accused of being "definite scum", for example, when the arguments supporting that are not enough.Excedrin wrote: skerterg mentioned the "Was I the only one who picked up on this and noticed Leafsnail does not even consider Razorback being town?" comment by Exilon. I think that scum often says stuff like this. It's similar to "... can never be sure, unless he/she is the cop." If someone pushes a case against town the reaction is typically "why?/you're wrong/idiot/that doesn't make sense" wheras "you can't know that I'm scum" is an extremely scummy reaction that never comes from town.
1. We go all out with theories without fear that scum is actually someone who's sitting a little back on the corner "unnoticed" because he can be an "easy" target for a mislynch.Kagelord wrote: 1. What makes you think that with skerterg, Excedrin, and yourself, there will be no fear of a mislynch?
2. You acknowledge skerterg as the best town player but suggest him as a possible alternative "lynch just for a lynch"?
Assuming Red Star is fakeclaiming doc in that setup, that means the reamining scum has to be the roleblocker. Which means, if he's scum fakeclaiming doc, during the night he has to act like he's the roleblocker when in fact he isn't.excedrin wrote:Exilon wrote:...but assuming Red Star is fakeclaiming in a cop2maf setup, he'd still have to pretend he's the roleblocker, and then again the deaths don't make as much sense as before.
This is weird, scumslip? Why would scum have to pretend to be anything other than townie (or doctor in Red Star's case)?
In this, he seems to be admitting partial blame for the most recent death. He also deflects some suspicion from him onto the other 'major suspects from Day 2.' He also is guilty of Furbishing; I realize that this is only used in my RL games, so I'll explain.3. I know you must have stated them earlier, but I have forgotten in this long lull what exactly my motivation for killing horror would supposedly be. I mean, as opposed to any of the other major suspects from Day 2. And can you clarify what doubts you have about me so that I may address them? The only major one that I can recall was about kelikar possibly trying to help razor, which, as it turns out, is not the best thing to look at when trying to catch scum.
Exilon: Really Pro-Town, lots of useful posts. Nothing scummy here, or maybe he's just a really, good actor.Furbishing: Asking for a review of all the points against them in a game of Mafia. Gives time to build an argument, and true town wouldn't have to ask this. Scummy.
I just found this post by Skerterg. It seems as if Skert wants the Cop to claim so the Mafia can just kill him, rendering one of the most powerful Power-Roles useless. It also seems that Skert tries to keep that thought in the reader's mind, instead of posting his analysis and filling the mind with speculation.skerterg wrote:Alright, I was in the process of writing a post analyzing possible ways of forcing a win when I realized that it would be best for cop (if there is one) to claim now and share results regardless of what he had. If he waits until next time, then there is no point, because it would be lylo and we cannot trust him. So, any information we have would be best of use now. Assuming that Red Star is confirmed doc, if the cop investigated two people then we have a forced win (detailed below). Otherwise, it becomes more difficult. I'll post my actual analysis on players, etc. later.
Now I have a puzzle. Apparently, Red Star fakeclaimed. I am a supporter of Lynch All Liars, but I can't be held responsible for Red Star's actions.1 Mafia Goon,1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Doctor, 5 Townies.
1 Mafia Goon,1 Mafia Roleblocker, 7 Townies.
