Triple post: alright, here's a post I've been working on and off for a few hours.
Exilon wrote:I don't think I'd kill the easier mislynch target :s
I think KageLord would have a pretty high chance of being a mislynch target, or so it seemed at the time. KageLord was my top suspect, so if you were hoping that I would push for his lynch then you might keep horror alive. To note: I've got quite a few town reads on KageLord. So, I don't suspect him as much now. Ever since my SOAP analysis, he hasn't given much of a scum read. I think Exilon is just trying to extend his time alive.
About me being Mainstream... hum, I don't reallly agree with that. I do tend to comment on what's hapenning, but generally I'm not really that much of a follower. If you look at the people still alive, it's pretty impossible not to share your views with other players. Most of the time, only one or two will be different from everyone else's. the problem kinda seems that I usually post after someone has done so first. IS that what you mean?
I didn't mean "follower;" you can be mainstream without being a follower. For example, if you believe player1 is pushing for player2 lynch, then you can post a case against player2. Because you post analysis, that doesn't make you a follower. However, I can see scum doing this; not following but seeing where the town winds blow and adding analysis as necessary. Also, it's very true that some opinions will overlap, but I feel throughout the game that you had the most in general accordance with town feeling. Let's have a look at some major points (feel free to mention any I may have overlooked):
"ahoda affair": In general, I'd say more people were against him. Red Star, horror, myself, and you posted cases against him; I think kelikar was the only one (maybe there was another) who defended ahoda.
"pops L-1 vote": I think horror, kelikar, and Exilon accused pops, with me defending him. Horror started this, kelikar FOS'd, and Exilon backed up with a case.
"razorback attack": Red Star, Leafsnail, horror, kelikar, and Exilon were for razor lynch; razor, myself, and Excedrin were for Red Star lynch. pops had voted for Red Star but switched to razor to hammer, and Exilon stated that would vote for razor. However, I think Exilon was one of the later ones (which wouldn't be that bad just by itself) but even then still seemed wavering and criticized Red Star.
"Exilon vs. Excedrin": Exilon and horror were against Excedrin, and Excedrin against Exilon. This felt more like a 1 vs. 1, with horror (and others) chiming in. Not too much to be gained from here just be looking at the sides.
"Case against pops": Red Star, me, Exilon, and kelikar were against him, and Excedrin (and pops) defended.
"KageLord": I started this, Exilon viewed him as scummy but kept vote on pops, pops viewed KageLord as scummy. Excedrin went along at first but revealed that he thought KageLord was town.
"horrordude0215": Excedrin and I pressured him, horror defended, don't remember too much otherwise.
Well, that's that. I think Exilon was present in each one of these except for maybe the last one. I don't see anyone else like that.
Problem is, if you're the one who's scum, then it seems fairly obvious you can get Skerterg to follow you into lynching Kagelord if by any chance you can't lynch Red Star instead (I'm believing Red Star will be killed tonight, if he's indeed the doc, furthering your "distancing"). Right now, I don't think town can afford a mislynch (specially not mine), as it'll leave very doubtful players remaining.
I don't think it would be that easy, tbh. I have a town read on both KageLord and Excedrin. The only thing I could imagine Excedrin bringing up is kelikar, which I already explained and considered.
Also, are you saying that we should lynch one of the "doubtful players" now? Then, if they turn up town, we should lynch you, who isn't one of the "doubtful players?" If you are suggesting Excedrin lynch, what makes him any less "doubtful" than anyone else? Again, I feel that Exilon is just trying to stay alive longer.
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Damien777 wrote:I just found this post by Skerterg. It seems as if Skert wants the Cop to claim so the Mafia can just kill him, rendering one of the most powerful Power-Roles useless. It also seems that Skert tries to keep that thought in the reader's mind, instead of posting his analysis and filling the mind with speculation.
There is no use in a cop claim at LYLO, since it is entirely possible that scum can do that; therefore that's why I asked for one today. However, I did not consider that if the cop doesn't claim, then (assuming he isn't roleblocked and that he exists) he will know for sure who is the scum in LYLO. All that remains is for him to convince the other townie. I think I mentioned this, and I apologize for not considering this earlier.
Now I have a puzzle. Apparently, Red Star fakeclaimed. I am a supporter of Lynch All Liars, but I can't be held responsible for Red Star's actions.
ROLECLAIM: Vanilla Townie.
Nothing special here, folks.
I think I know what Excedrin is getting at here, and I'll post my thoughts. Sorry if I'm making a mistake for not waiting for Exilon and KageLord, but here it is:
There are three possibilities for this new development:
1. Red Star is VT and fake-claimed.
2. Red Star is doctor and damien is fake-claiming.
3. Red Star/damien is scum and damien is right now "correcting" a fake-claim.
Personally, I believe it is #2. I think damien is saying that he is VT when he really is the doctor to confuse the mafia and get a reaction. Though it is possible that #1 is the scenario, I think #2 has more ground. If Red Star did fake-claim, I would think damien would have stated so earlier. Maybe not, but I also can't imagine Red Star fakeclaiming at the end of day 1. Finally, #3 is just wacko. It throws the game into insanity. I don't know why damien would correct a fakeclaim if he's mafia.
I have a guess of everyone's roles. I will post if someone asks for them and if no one objects. If you ask, I will assign a role to every single person, including myself.