Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
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Andrius The Baker
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I'm sure its not a problem to prove I have one; I've been hinting at having a loan for awhile now.SaintKerrigan wrote:Last chance to claim you have a role pricier than $100, Andrius. Otherwise I'll tell the town why I'm positive you have one and how your unwillingness to admit that makes you more suspicious.
But yeah. I have a role.
Duly noted. However, I'll do as I please with my vote.SaintKerrigan wrote:EBWOP: Also, you can easily vote me and still ponder your other suspects. It's not that hard, Andrius. I did it today. You can, too."This is the true face of a man who plays paladin."-
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
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- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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Uhh, so what was the point of that?SaintKerrigan wrote:##Unvote: Andrius
##Vote: Zang
Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town. Moving on to the lurking man with the empty words.
SK: I think you have a role. If you don't claim that you have a role, you're scum.
Andrius: I have a role.
SK: Ok, you're probably town. Moving on...
If he's mafia, he's obviously just going to agree with you, so you gained no ground there. All this appears to have done is placed an extremely large flashing arrow over the head of our PR.
Vote: SaintKerrigan-
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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Andrius The Baker
- The Baker
- The Baker
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- Joined: February 16, 2010
Perserverance, Almaster, perserverance. You'll get that vote down soon enough.
But yeah. I'm not sure why we went through all that, just to confirm that I was a PR. Perhaps SK was trying to make the point that the scum wouldn't have outed themselves as PRs?"This is the true face of a man who plays paladin."-
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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Steam-Powered Shovel Goon
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- Location: the Netherlands
Fixed!SaintKerrigan wrote:Your point is still asobfuscatedself-evident as it was before.
No, I implied it.SaintKerrigan wrote:Did you say you had a case on me, by the way?
No, it does not. Want to come up with a better reason for ditching the Andriuswagon?SaintKerrigan wrote:Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town.The great advantage of the tiger in unarmed combat is that he eats not only the raspberry-laden foe but also the raspberries.-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.AlamasterGM wrote:If you are scum and someone says to you, "If you do not claim PR, I will unleash a case against you," what do you do?
You claim PR. And, because you started with a lot of money, you probably have one. So you can't even be called out for lying later.
Mission: Accomplish Nothing: Accomplished.
Fixed!Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:
Yeah you're right I suck but I still won't explain it anyway.SaintKerrigan wrote:Your point is still as obfuscated as it was before.
Can you show me where you implied it, then? I'm totally not seeing it.Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:No, I implied it.
Because other people deserve my attention more right now? Also, you're wrong. See response to AlmasterGM.Steam-Powered Shovel wrote:No, it does not. Want to come up with a better reason for ditching the Andriuswagon?ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYS-
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Nobody Special Survivor
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I'm just fascinated watching the bidding process.-
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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You are completely avoiding the question. Fine, we now have some "40% chance of scum" number (which isn't even actually mathematical legitimate because it is based on what you "think" and not actual number crunching). You don't want to lynch on it, I don't want to lynch on it...so what did that buy us, exactly, other than the outing of a PR?SK wrote:Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
I gave you the answer I wanted you to know. Anything else I may or may not have been trying to do, you don't need to know.AlmasterGM wrote:
You are completely avoiding the question. Fine, we now have some "40% chance of scum" number (which isn't even actually mathematical legitimate because it is based on what you "think" and not actual number crunching). You don't want to lynch on it, I don't want to lynch on it...so what did that buy us, exactly, other than the outing of a PR?SK wrote:Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.
I'm positive that two of the six current roles in this game belong to scum, and I'm very sure that at least one other role is also scum. Throwing out one of the scum roles because I reasonably certain Andrius doesn't have it, that leaves one definite scum role and one highly like scum role against three town roles. Thus, 40% chance in my estimation. Is it pure math? No, I never claimed it was pure math. Completely mathematically, taking no intuition or gut reads into account, Andrius has a 33% chance of being scum (since 2/6 roles are definitely, provably scum). That's only a 7% difference.
Also, quit misrepresenting me. I never said I wouldn't lynch on those numbers; in fact, I quite clearly said Icouldstill lynch on those numbers.ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYS-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
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- Joined: September 6, 2009
- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
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Nobody Special Survivor
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That sure is a tiny thing you've got, there.SaintKerrigan wrote:Nobody Special wrote:I'm just fascinated watching the bidding process.FoS: Nobody Special-
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Zang Mafia Scum
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Because it's not based on anything besides both jack and VV being town.SK wrote:why FoS me instead of vote me?
I know, I'll try to be more active.SK wrote:Zang is not helping rid himself of the lurkerscum image I have of him.
I'm not the only lurker.SK wrote:##Unvote: Andrius
##Vote: Zang
Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town. Moving on to the lurking man with the empty words.(\_/)
(._.) HelpZangThe bunny In T.W.D
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Posts: 3808
- Joined: September 6, 2009
- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Brings Out The Flavour
- Posts: 3808
- Joined: September 6, 2009
- Location: Drowning in printing ink.
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Nobody Special Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 14479
- Joined: January 6, 2010
- Location: Not here
My, what a huge thing you have there.SaintKerrigan wrote:Ok, so Size 24 means something entirely different on this server...
FoS: Nobody Special
Better.
(Yeah, text is now a percentage, 100 being normal.)-
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Steam-Powered Shovel Goon
- Goon
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- Joined: February 24, 2010
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Mine was better.SaintKerrigan wrote:Fixed!
Post 292.SaintKerrigan wrote:Can you show me where you implied it, then? I'm totally not seeing it.
I'm not. Your attempt at mathematics is faulty. The odds of Andrius being scum does not suddenly reset upon gaining objective information about him. For example, if we knew with 90% accuracy Andrius was scum, that would not suddenly drop down to 40% upon finding out he had a role. We obtain new information, sure, but that's why we have conditional probabilities. You could use e.g. Bayes' Theorem.SaintKerrigan wrote:Also, you're wrong. See response to AlmasterGM.
Example: Let's assume 2.5 of the scum have a role and 3.5 of the town do and we think Andrius has a 50% chance of being scum. Then we discover Andrius has a role. The new odds of him being scum is 0.5*0.625/(0.625*0.5+3.5/6*0.5) = 0.52... In fact since we assumed the density of roles among scum to be slightly greater than the density of roles among town, it would always slightly increase.
Conclusion: Your reasons for unvoting are nonsensical.The great advantage of the tiger in unarmed combat is that he eats not only the raspberry-laden foe but also the raspberries.-
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SaintKerrigan Brings Out The Flavour
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@ Steam: Your sarcasm detector failed. I was belittling your "case".
Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum isonlytaking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There isdefinitelya 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)
Also, I'm pursuing other targets by using my vote. I have plenty of reason to unvote. Kiss my ass.
(I'm in a snarky mood today. )ALMOST ALWAYS BUSY 9-6 CST WEEKDAYS-
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zoraster He/HimDisorganized CrimeHe/Him
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AlmasterGM Mafia Scum
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