Mini 980 - Trader Mafia (Game Over)

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOPx2: I didn't vote myself, but you know what I meant by the statement.

[Andrius]

Last chance to claim you have a role pricier than $100, Andrius. Otherwise I'll tell the town why I'm positive you have one and how your unwillingness to admit that makes you more suspicious.

I'm sure its not a problem to prove I have one; I've been hinting at having a loan for awhile now.
But yeah. I have a role.

EBWOP: Also, you can easily vote me and still ponder your other suspects. It's not that hard, Andrius. I did it today. You can, too.

Duly noted. However, I'll do as I please with my vote.

[AlmasterGM]

I'm confused as to why Andrius needs to claim. There were a lot of roles purchased and the scum can't have them all (hell, they probably don't even have half), so I don't see why he's more likely to be scum just because he bought something. Plus, last time I checked, rolefishing was bad?

[SaintKerrigan]

##Unvote: Andrius
##Vote: Zang

Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town. Moving on to the lurking man with the empty words.

[AlmasterGM]

##Unvote: Andrius
##Vote: Zang

Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town. Moving on to the lurking man with the empty words.

Uhh, so what was the point of that?

SK: I think you have a role. If you don't claim that you have a role, you're scum.
Andrius: I have a role.
SK: Ok, you're probably town. Moving on...

If he's mafia, he's obviously just going to agree with you, so you gained no ground there. All this appears to have done is placed an extremely large flashing arrow over the head of our PR.

Vote: SaintKerrigan

[AlmasterGM]

Ugh:

##Vote: SaintKerrigan

[AlmasterGM]

UGHHHHHHH. TAKE 3.

##Vote: SaintKerrigan

[Andrius]

Perserverance, Almaster, perserverance. You'll get that vote down soon enough.

But yeah. I'm not sure why we went through all that, just to confirm that I was a PR. Perhaps SK was trying to make the point that the scum wouldn't have outed themselves as PRs?

[AlmasterGM]

If you are scum and someone says to you, "If you do not claim PR, I will unleash a case against you," what do you do?

You claim PR. And, because you started with a lot of money, you probably have one. So you can't even be called out for lying later.

Mission: Accomplish Nothing: Accomplished.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Your point is still as

obfuscated

self-evident as it was before.

Fixed!

Did you say you had a case on me, by the way?

No, I implied it.

Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town.

No, it does not. Want to come up with a better reason for ditching the Andriuswagon?

[zoraster]

Day 2 Vote Count

Nobody Special ( 1 ) Fishythefish,
farside22 ( 0 )
Zang ( 1 ) SaintKerrigan,
SaintKerrigan ( 2 ) Steam-Powered Shovel, AlmasterGM,
Zajnet ( 0 )
easjo682 ( 0 )
Andrius ( 2 ) Zajnet, Nobody Special,
Fishythefish ( 0 )
Steam-Powered Shovel ( 0 )
AlmasterGM ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 4 ) farside22, Andrius, easjo682 Zang,
Total Votes ( 10 )
Deadline: June 25th at 23:00 EDT
With 10 total votes, 6 needed to lynch.

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Mugger x 1

- This one-shot ability may be used at night against another player. This will steal all cash and abilities from that player, leaving that player with nothing. That player will retain any debt they had before. You may NOT mug yourself and if you are mafia you may not mug your teammate.
MB: 50 CB: 302 Deadline: 19:30:00 6/17/2010

2 Banker

- This gives the ability to set the interest rate on debt. You may set it at 2%, 5%, 10%, or 15% . You must submit this before the night, and it will be in effect the night after you have submitted. So if you submit 5% on Day 2, it will become the interest rate for night 3. Players will be informed of the upcoming interest rate. Finally, this ability gives the Banker a 20% discount on all abilities being sold because of bankruptcy. For example, if Ability X is put on the market because of bankruptcy, and the Banker ends up purchasing that ability for $100, he will only have to pay $80.
MB: 10 CB: 101 Deadline: 19:30:00 6/17/2010

3 Gunsmith

- This ability gives its owner the ability to investigate one person a night to see if they have a gun. Night Killers, Muggers, Cops will have guns. There are other abilities that may be purchased in the future that will also have a gun. If a player holds both a gun-role and the investigation immunity role, they will come up as not having a gun.
MB: 5 CB: 61 Deadline: 19:50:00 6/17/2010

4 Promotion

- You receive a $75 wage increase (in addition to your current wage), but in order to receive this increase each night you must choose one player to promote under you. This player will receive a permanent $25 wage increase (in addition to their previous wage). You may only promote each person once.
MB: 75 CB: 167 Deadline: 17:49:00 6/17/2010

5 VasudeVa's Estate

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: SOLD

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

[SaintKerrigan]

If you are scum and someone says to you, "If you do not claim PR, I will unleash a case against you," what do you do?

You claim PR. And, because you started with a lot of money, you probably have one. So you can't even be called out for lying later.

Mission: Accomplish Nothing: Accomplished.

Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.

Your point is still as obfuscated as it was before.

Yeah you're right I suck but I still won't explain it anyway.

Fixed!

No, I implied it.

Can you show me where you implied it, then? I'm totally not seeing it.

No, it does not. Want to come up with a better reason for ditching the Andriuswagon?

Because other people deserve my attention more right now? Also, you're wrong. See response to AlmasterGM.

[Nobody Special]

I'm just fascinated watching the bidding process.

[AlmasterGM]

Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.

You are completely avoiding the question. Fine, we now have some "40% chance of scum" number (which isn't even actually mathematical legitimate because it is based on what you "think" and not actual number crunching). You don't want to lynch on it, I don't want to lynch on it...so what did that buy us, exactly, other than the outing of a PR?

[SaintKerrigan]

Wrong, actually. There is one role I'm positive Andrius is not, and it's one of the roles that is definitely in scum hands. Of the remaining five roles, I think two of them are in scum hands. Thus, mathematically Andrius has a 40% chance of being scum. I could still lynch on those odds, but there's other people that need my attention right now, so they're getting it.

You are completely avoiding the question. Fine, we now have some "40% chance of scum" number (which isn't even actually mathematical legitimate because it is based on what you "think" and not actual number crunching). You don't want to lynch on it, I don't want to lynch on it...so what did that buy us, exactly, other than the outing of a PR?

I gave you the answer I wanted you to know. Anything else I may or may not have been trying to do, you don't need to know.

I'm positive that two of the six current roles in this game belong to scum, and I'm very sure that at least one other role is also scum. Throwing out one of the scum roles because I reasonably certain Andrius doesn't have it, that leaves one definite scum role and one highly like scum role against three town roles. Thus, 40% chance in my estimation. Is it pure math? No, I never claimed it was pure math. Completely mathematically, taking no intuition or gut reads into account, Andrius has a 33% chance of being scum (since 2/6 roles are definitely, provably scum). That's only a 7% difference.

Also, quit misrepresenting me. I never said I wouldn't lynch on those numbers; in fact, I quite clearly said I

could

still lynch on those numbers.

[SaintKerrigan]

I'm just fascinated watching the bidding process.

FoS: Nobody Special

[Nobody Special]

I'm just fascinated watching the bidding process.

FoS: Nobody Special

That sure is a tiny thing you've got, there.

[Zang]

why FoS me instead of vote me?

Because it's not based on anything besides both jack and VV being town.

Zang is not helping rid himself of the lurkerscum image I have of him.

I know, I'll try to be more active.

##Unvote: Andrius
##Vote: Zang

Andrius confirming he has a role makes him more likely to be town. Moving on to the lurking man with the empty words.

I'm not the only lurker.

[SaintKerrigan]

Ok, so Size 24 means something entirely different on this server...

FoS: Nobody Special

Better.

[SaintKerrigan]

I'm not the only lurker.

But right now you're MY special lurker. See earlier accusations of not saying much other than going after Jack, etc.

[Nobody Special]

Ok, so Size 24 means something entirely different on this server...

FoS: Nobody Special

Better.

My, what a huge thing you have there.

(Yeah, text is now a percentage, 100 being normal.)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Fixed!

Mine was better.

Can you show me where you implied it, then? I'm totally not seeing it.

Post 292.

Also, you're wrong. See response to AlmasterGM.

I'm not. Your attempt at mathematics is faulty. The odds of Andrius being scum does not suddenly reset upon gaining objective information about him. For example, if we knew with 90% accuracy Andrius was scum, that would not suddenly drop down to 40% upon finding out he had a role. We obtain new information, sure, but that's why we have conditional probabilities. You could use e.g. Bayes' Theorem.

Example: Let's assume 2.5 of the scum have a role and 3.5 of the town do and we think Andrius has a 50% chance of being scum. Then we discover Andrius has a role. The new odds of him being scum is 0.5*0.625/(0.625*0.5+3.5/6*0.5) = 0.52... In fact since we assumed the density of roles among scum to be slightly greater than the density of roles among town, it would always slightly increase.

Conclusion: Your reasons for unvoting are nonsensical.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Steam: Your sarcasm detector failed. I was belittling your "case".

Also, you are not getting it. 40% scum is

only

taking role stuff into account, and nothing else. There is

definitely

a 33% chance of Andrius being scum no matter what because he has a role. Other evidence against him is additive to the percentage of likelihood. (It's not mathematics. It's not gut. It's gutematics. Get used to it.)

Also, I'm pursuing other targets by using my vote. I have plenty of reason to unvote. Kiss my ass.

(I'm in a snarky mood today. )

[zoraster]

Day 2 Vote Count

Nobody Special ( 1 ) Fishythefish,
farside22 ( 0 )
Zang ( 1 ) SaintKerrigan,
SaintKerrigan ( 2 ) Steam-Powered Shovel, AlmasterGM,
Zajnet ( 0 )
easjo682 ( 0 )
Andrius ( 2 ) Zajnet, Nobody Special,
Fishythefish ( 0 )
Steam-Powered Shovel ( 0 )
AlmasterGM ( 0 )
Not Voting ( 4 ) farside22, Andrius, easjo682 Zang,
Total Votes ( 10 )
Deadline: June 25th at 23:00 EDT
With 10 total votes, 6 needed to lynch.

Marketplace

To place a bid, PM Zoraster with the highest price you would be willing to pay.

1 Mugger x 1

- This one-shot ability may be used at night against another player. This will steal all cash and abilities from that player, leaving that player with nothing. That player will retain any debt they had before. You may NOT mug yourself and if you are mafia you may not mug your teammate.
MB: 50 CB: 302 Deadline: SOLD

2 Banker

- This gives the ability to set the interest rate on debt. You may set it at 2%, 5%, 10%, or 15% . You must submit this before the night, and it will be in effect the night after you have submitted. So if you submit 5% on Day 2, it will become the interest rate for night 3. Players will be informed of the upcoming interest rate. Finally, this ability gives the Banker a 20% discount on all abilities being sold because of bankruptcy. For example, if Ability X is put on the market because of bankruptcy, and the Banker ends up purchasing that ability for $100, he will only have to pay $80.
MB: 10 CB: 101 Deadline: SOLD

3 Gunsmith

- This ability gives its owner the ability to investigate one person a night to see if they have a gun. Night Killers, Muggers, Cops will have guns. There are other abilities that may be purchased in the future that will also have a gun. If a player holds both a gun-role and the investigation immunity role, they will come up as not having a gun.
MB: 5 CB: 61 Deadline: SOLD

4 Promotion

- You receive a $75 wage increase (in addition to your current wage), but in order to receive this increase each night you must choose one player to promote under you. This player will receive a permanent $25 wage increase (in addition to their previous wage). You may only promote each person once.
MB: 75 CB: 167 Deadline: SOLD

5 VasudeVa's Estate

MB: 50 CB: 100 Deadline: SOLD

Current bids may not be up-to-date. Current Bids and Deadlines will only be kept up-to-date by edit until the next vote count is posted.

All abilities have been sold.

[AlmasterGM]

I gave you the answer I wanted you to know. Anything else I may or may not have been trying to do, you don't need to know.

So, basically, you were rolefishing and you have no legitimate excuse whatsoever.

I like my vote.

V/LA until Monday.