Newbie 980 ~ Game Over

[CSL]

The Tomorrow is my Scumday! Vote Count

Zajnet (2) Earlder1, Beefster

Earlder1 (1) Kov

Not Voting: jmurph3, Nexus, Zajnet, Mr. Flay

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Deadline and Lynch info

Currently set for Sunday, August 22nd, at 7:00pm EST

There are SEVEN alive, so FOUR votes on a player will lynch.

V/LA's and Prods

Mr. Flay is on a perpetual V/LA status

Zajnet is away for 2 days

Etc.

[Earlder1]

@ Jmurph

I'm largely joking for voting because he was the first one to post, although I think there is slight logic behind it. Scum are going to be more interested because they get to see if their action went through. This also applies to doctors I suppose, but it is less useful information for the town to check soon after the day has begun than scum. But as I said, it's just a weak thought.

My suspicion of Zaj has indeed carried over from the day prior and...

@ Kov

Refer to my post 21 in iso, if you need my reasons. I feel I nicely made a case against him "in my own words" as you seem to think I didn't.

Yeah, the fact that Flay is not dead is pure WIFOM, but cannot be ignored. I know from experience as both scum and town that usually the more experienced, seemingly knowledgeable players are NK'd first in newbie games. That is, unless they are scum. However, WIFOM is still WIFOM and doesn't really change an opinion I have on Flay, at least not yet.

Other than Zaj, I still have my suspicions about Nexus but I will definitely reread to get a better feel for other players that have not left a lasting impression on me (such as jmurph and Beefster).

And I definitely cannot see a Beefster-Flay scum pair from Beefster's post that mentions he expected one of them to die. I see absolutely no scum agenda in this. As for their individual alignments, nothing is really given away but together, I cannot see them as scum.

[Beefster]

Joke voting is usually not a good thing to be doing on D2. There are 18 pages of content. (keep in mind the first few standard mod posts)

FoS: Earlder

[jmurph3]

Ok, I finished my reread and a couple of things stand out to me.

Firstly:

Earlder1.

My suspicion of Zaj has indeed carried over from the day prior and...

@ Kov

Refer to my post 21 in iso, if you need my reasons. I feel I nicely made a case against him "in my own words" as you seem to think I didn't.

Here's the problem I have with this. I looked at your post from before, and while you did make some arguments, you also make some points that I think contradict your vote. Read below (emphasis mine):

Although,

the seemingly only reason (except for one post of his) for him to be scummy is his lack of contribution

, I agree that is a valid reason for a lynch, especially on day 1. We managed to hit 16 pages of activity, which is good, and of course that lends itself to actual cases being built because there is a pool of content to gather information from, but day 1 is still so early. Lynching the lurker is definitely a possibiliy in terms of what will enable town to collectively win later on. even if Zaj is town, his lack of contribution is anti-town, and some would say I am not contributing as much as I should, but I am posting when I can and trying to post content. Regardless, my point is that a Zaj lynch is not a bad idea, and I definitely identify with the reasons behind it.

So overall, I am going to pute my vote on Zaj for the aforementioned reasons and

also because I don't see a Nexus lynch occurring today.

This puts him at L-1, so before anybody hammers, wait for his explanation.

You basically undermine your vote by saying that it's mainly a policy lynch, and because your main target (Nexus) does not seem likely to be lynched. How exactly does this reasoning carry over from D1? He hasn't lurked yet today, and you have every chance now to start another wagon on Nexus. So what exactly is your reasoning?

This, coupled with the fact that you admit,

@ Jmurph

I'm largely joking for voting because he was the first one to post, although I think there is slight logic behind it.

So you vote for reasons that don't necessarily carry over, and based on a joke? This seems suspicious to me.

Finally,

And I definitely cannot see a Beefster-Flay scum pair from Beefster's post that mentions he expected one of them to die. I see absolutely no scum agenda in this. As for their individual alignments, nothing is really given away but together, I cannot see them as scum.

Beefster's statement is a complete nulltell to me. Just because he stated that he expected one of the two of them to die doesn't mean that they cannot be a scum team. I'm confused by your logic here.

Overall, I'm really not liking the way he started D2. Definitely enough for me to say

FoS: Earlder1

Beefster:

This vote is primarily in response to day 1. I'll quote and paraphrase if anyone wants a recap.

Please do, as I'm interested if your case holds up as much as Earlder's does.

Kov:

At the moment, though, I want to say that I do not find posting first to be scummy at all. In fact, in all of my previous games, the person who posted first after N1 was town.

If Zaj is scum, this is noted. As it's an obvious defense.

Actually, it's an obvious "This logic is flawed for this reason." I would have said this regardless of who posted first if someone had made this argument. It's just not a good argument, and I don't like it/

Mr. Flay:

Personally, I'm most suspicious of Mr. Flay at this point. I've reread everything from D1 and it seems to me that he was shepherding town. He started the wagon on Haylen, and he tunneled on her to the end. Not once in 9 pages does he vote for anyone else. Even when he suspected someone else (namely Zajnet) he makes his case in terms of Haylen. Note what he says here (emphasis mine):

I'm strongly considering flipping my vote to Zajnet.

He's like a MiniMe version of Haylen, only without the good qualities.

Seriously dude, you HAVE to contribute or you're helping the scum. And if you're scum, you HAVE to contribute or you're going to get lynched.

I also, in retrospect - as I didn't notice it at the time - really don't like this. It seems like he's power role fishing, especially since there's no way that I can see Haylen's post as being misconstrued as soft-claiming.

UNVOTE: Haylen

- just so we're clear, are you softclaiming? You're at L-1 as of the time I started this post, so I don't think it's too early to ask (and Kov is still being bloodthirsty as hell). This is a tactical unvote ONLY, to avoid a quicklynch if you say yes.

Overall, in rereading and reanalyzing everything with the added information that Haylen was town, Mr. Flay sticks out to me.

Vote: Mr. Flay

[jmurph3]

EBWOP: Dang it, that should be

Vote: Mr. Flay

.

[Beefster]

I think the primary subject that deserves attention is the spontaneous Zaj wagon. It is clear that Zaj has not contributed much, as shown by his 1-3 sentence posts, and occasionally his one word posts such as "jmurph". Although, the seemingly only reason (except for one post of his) for him to be scummy is his lack of contribution, I agree that is a valid reason for a lynch, especially on day 1. We managed to hit 16 pages of activity, which is good, and of course that lends itself to actual cases being built because there is a pool of content to gather information from, but day 1 is still so early. Lynching the lurker is definitely a possibiliy in terms of what will enable town to collectively win later on. even if Zaj is town, his lack of contribution is anti-town, and some would say I am not contributing as much as I should, but I am posting when I can and trying to post content. Regardless, my point is that a Zaj lynch is not a bad idea, and I definitely identify with the reasons behind it.

One other interesting thing about Zaj is this post here:

Only that you're the only other person I've really seen as scummy so far. I would need to ISO you better before wanting to lynch you, but you're the only other person I'd vote for right now besides Haylen, unless somebody brought up what I find compelling evidence on somebody.

This is in response to Jmurph questioning why he would be Zaj's second choice for a lynch. This is the second time that Zaj says he would need to do an iso on someone to get a better read. Well, do a frickin' iso then! Zaj adds stimpulations to his scumhunting, which is quite suspect. He says he would take a closer look at Flay IF Haylen flips town, and now he says he would need to do an iso on Jmurph IF he would consider lynching him. Part of staying on track with this game is doing those things that will give you better reads, whether they br prodding someone, doing an iso, or looking at meta. For goodness sake, do them! 1-3 sentences every day or two does not help the town one bit. Also, why so undecided this late into the day. There are 16 pages of content to look at, and all Zaj has to say can be paraphrased as "Haylen is scummy and maybe Jmurph". I'm sorry, but that is not much of an opinion. Overall, I would be perfectly fine with a Zaj lynch, but, as mentioned, his response is critical before this turns into action.

I remember now that my case was the same as Earlder's. With a few extra points, some more recent:
In the Zaj quote, he's basically admitting that he was tunneling. And the matters that he says he's going to ISO/analyze but never does. It's anti-town at the least, scummy at most.
Additionally, it seems odd that yesterday, Zaj was tunneling (more or less) on jmurph, then Haylen. Now he's totally changed targets to Flay. Seems pretty opportunistic to me.

jmurph: I see your point about Mr. Flay. I also see motives behind him not killing me if he is scum- as I agreed with him quite a bit.

[Earlder1]

@Beefster

Ok, my little joke at the start of the day is not my reason for voting. My reasons for voting Zaj are outlined in my iso post 21, as I just mentioned. Yes, I made a joke. No, that is not my reason for voting.

@Jmurph

What is contradictory? I am still suspicious of Nexus, but I didn't see a reason to pursue him at the very end of day 1. Now that it's day 2, I am not any less suspicious of him. I am however, still suspicious of Zaj and that is why my vote is there. I see two people as scummy and I can't vote them both.

[jmurph3]

@Earlder: the reason why I see it as contradictory is because you state in your original reasoning that one of the reasons why you're voting Zajnet is because you wouldn't be able to get a lynch on Nexus, meaning that you think Nexus is more scummy. Why then would you not continue pushing a lynch on Nexus instead of Zajnet?

[CSL]

Hi. It's your friendly mod here.

I get to spend my scumday with you all! Let's PARTY!

[Earlder1]

Once again, I find them both scummy. I made the comment about not voting for Nexus because I did not think it possible to get a Nexus lynch on day 1. In terms of relative scumminess, I would actually put Zaj as a little scummier because I can maybe excuse some of my issues with Nexus as his playstyle.

Basically, I find them both scummy. I can't vote them both so I am voting one of them. I feel Zaj is more scummy so I am voting him.

If a wagon forms on Nexus, I would be happy to place my vote there as well.

[Nexus]

Ok.

Going through the past posts, I noticed that Haylen, for all her faults, was building quite a big case on Mr. Flay. Having read jmurph's post as well, I'm beginning to feel that Haylen had a point. Once Mr. Flay got involved, it was difficult for anyone else to get accused. Yes, Zajnet ended up on L-1 too, but I think that was more to do with the fact he had been lurking, whereas Haylen was lynched because the case against her from Flay.

On Kov: I think his post, post 417, indicates he's town, because if he was mafia, that would be a stupid thing to say. "How do you know flay will make it through the night" reeks of trying to make a joke as a townie. HOWEVER. a2rudeboy had a vote on Kov for a long period of time on Day 1, so it might be a revenge kill.

On Earlder: I think that yes, he said "I'm voting you because you posted first" to Zajnet, but I don't think that this means he's scum. However, the fact that he then claimed that it was jokey, backpedalling is in my opinion a sure way to get yourself under suspicion, because it shows desperation to not be lynched. He then tells us to look at his iso post for his actual reasons, why not say that in the first place? Day 2 isn't a day for jokes, as a townie, especially when the town is 2 down. So, that's suspicious to me.

On Zajnet: I find it slightly suspicious that he's gone from lurking to being the first Day 2 poster. However, that might be him being a townie, not wanting the lurking suspicion on him anymore, as it's distracting. I'm gonna watch how he posts for the next couple of days. Also, it was a2rudeboy who put him at L-1 so the kill might've come from him for almost getting him lynched first day.

On Beefster: I'm surprised he wasn't killed last night as well, along with Flay, because they were two of the more analytical. So, that's slightly suspicious. PLus, by bringing up "I'm surprised they didn't lynch me," it could be seen as a scum trying to cover up himself because he is desperate to avoid being seen as scum.

On jmurph: No real suspicion, as I haven't had all game.

On Mr Flay: Tunnelled Haylen, he knows her better than most of us, so probably knew this was how she acted as town, and went ahead anyway. So, most suspicious.

FoS: Earlder1

Vote: Mr Flay

[Mr. Flay]

Argh. I went to see Predators last night, should have stayed home and read this game instead. I've got work today, a meeting and then dinner tonight, then I WILL post here.

I do have to say, though, that I called what's happening today. How many votes have I already accumulated, because of a wagon that 4 other people were on?

[Beefster]

^Posts like this often leave me torn on what to think- On the one hand, they look scummy, but I've noticed that those who make posts like this often turn out to be town. Haylen did it and turned out town, and now Flay's doing it and I have no idea what to make of it. Part of me wants to go the 100% rational route, but the other considers past observations and doubts the rationality.

I really don't think much can be gained from lynching Flay at this point- we should consider other perspectives before making a decision.

[jmurph3]

I do have to say, though, that I called what's happening today. How many votes have I already accumulated, because of a wagon that 4 other people were on?

Except that if you actually read my case, you'll notice that none of it is based on the simple fact that you started the Haylen wagon. Let's be honest, I hammered. I clearly thought there was a case there. But using the extra information we now have that Haylen was town, it changes the entire way that we can view D1, and you stuck out like a sore thumb at scum.

I really don't think much can be gained from lynching Flay at this point- we should consider other perspectives before making a decision.

I don't understand this. I guess I don't understand where you're coming from. Nowhere has Flay stuck out as such a pro-town player that we risk things by investigating his play at this point. Voting for Haylen, at least to me, didn't seem like a bad thing at the time, but we have to remember that there's been added information now. Especially because of Flay's first content-filled post I feel like he was steering town in a direction, and truthfully, I fell for it. Still, it's not just the mislynch on Haylen that drives my vote. There's the way I felt he was fishing for power roles. I also don't like the way he was tunneling (which he will probably deny). Granted, we all kind of jumped at Haylen, but I feel like he was really the one who started it and carried it through to completion. And there's the fact that he never took his vote off of her. There's just a lot of reasons why I really don't trust him at the moment and would like to hear an actual response from him instead of brushing off the case against him like it's strictly because of the Haylen mislynch.

Even with this, I don't disagree with continuing scumhunting. D2 has a long way to go still. However, I'm very wary of Mr. Flay at this point. I'm not sure if I will be able to get past this. Most of all, I think it's key that we all keep posting (Zajnet, I'm looking at you - I really don't want a policy lynch on D2).

[Beefster]

I just mean don't lynch him right now. There are other things we should look at. The scumhunting is fine; I just don't want us to be tunneling in on Flay. Because if he's town, it'll turn out the same way as Haylen. That's all I was saying.

[jmurph3]

@Beefster: I don't disagree that scumhunting shouldn't stop now, quite obviously, since we have almost 20 days til deadline. But I have to say that I'm waiting for Flay's reaction before I do much else.

[Earlder1]

@ Flay

Posts like those don't help. There is clear AtE, especially with the added eye rolling smiley. It's fine is you predicted a wagon on yourself if Haylen flipped town. Haylen clearly thought you were scummy, so that is perfectly understandable. Also, you have the same number of votes as Zaj if my memory serves, and it's only 2. There is no need to complain about it. Posts like these do not help the town and only serve to try and make people feel bad for suspecting you. Please provide a more analytical and logical response.

@ Jmurph

Townies create cases on townies and tunnel townies all the time. Why does this signify Flay as scum?

[Mr. Flay]

I have NOT read any of the cases on me yet; I scanned the thread and saw my name in practically every post.

I thought I'd be able to post tonight, but I'm hot and tired and my computer is acting stupid. I ask for another 24 hours; if I can't get back here by then, I'll ask CSL for replacement, though I don't want to replace out of a replacement IC slot. I'm just too mad to post coherently right now (it's already 2AM here and I just got to the site).

[Beefster]

Is he flaking?

[Zajnet]

Hai. I'm back. I really find Flay to be scummy in the reread, and I think he's a good enough player to play well anyways. I'm really trusting Haylen's read there.

VOTE: Mr. Flay

Now to address a misrep while I was away:

Additionally, it seems odd that yesterday, Zaj was tunneling (more or less) on jmurph, then Haylen. Now he's totally changed targets to Flay. Seems pretty opportunistic to me.

Umm, what? My scumlist from yesterday was a2rudeboy, jmurph, and Flay. The fact that a2 died makes jmurph and Flay top 2. Flay gets moved up to #1 because of Haylen's read.

[jmurph3]

@ Jmurph

Townies create cases on townies and tunnel townies all the time. Why does this signify Flay as scum?

It doesn't by itself, but in combination with other things, it does. It's not just the fact that he tunneled on someone who flipped town. That would be a null-tell in and of itself. Instead, it's the way he went about doing it.

As a further example, I did some digging. I know personally one of the things that really drew me into Flay's argument and made me trust him was in his first content-filled post when he said this about millar13:

millar13 is... being millar13, on page 1-2. Did he get force-replaced? Ohhh no, he asked for replacement. Interesting. On a sidebar I looked at millar's meta when he's scum: Only two I found, weirdly, is a mini where he also requested replacement (page 4) after getting heat, and a mini where he was modkilled for incredibly rude behavior. Very interesting indeed... yes, I know millar's a Village Idiot in general, but he doesn't usually get tossed out of games. I don't think he likes being scum...

Personally, I took this at face value and used it as further justification for the scum vibes I was getting from Haylen. But much like how Haylen's graph on my posting didn't tell the whole story, neither does this post. After all, Mr. Flay almost dismisses millar's general crap play. He implies that millar's modkill was out of the ordinary, but in this game, millar was denied the win after he replaced in and was a complete a$$hole, and he was townie in that situation. In addition, the first game that Flay mentions didn't happen the way he claims it did; millar indeed requested replacement but then just as quickly unrequested it. He was never replaced in that game.

Mr. Flay is a good player, and I think he realized that most of us would never look much closer at the examples he posted and instead just take his word for it. I did, and we mislynched because of it. To me, this is just further evidence of Mr. Flay's scummy play.

On a different note,

@Mod: I will be V/LA until Tuesday 10 August

.

Noted.

[jmurph3]

EBWOP: Also, in regards to the game where millar "requested" replacement, note what he said in post-game here. He requested replacement

before

he knew his role, meaning using that as a "meta" on his scum play is just not valid.

[CSL]

The Thunder and Lightning Vote Count

Mr. Flay (3) jmurph3, Zajnet, Nexus

Zajnet (2) Earlder1, Beefster

Earlder1 (1) Kov

Not Voting: Mr. Flay

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Deadline and Lynch info

Currently set for Sunday, August 22nd, at 7:00pm EST

There are SEVEN alive, so FOUR votes on a player will lynch.

V/LA's and Prods

Mr. Flay is on a perpetual V/LA status

jmurph3 is V/LA until August 10th

Etc.

[Earlder1]

You make some interesting remarks Jmurph, and I will make sure to consider them when I reread Flay.

Regardless, should he really be at L-1 already?

Even if people find him scummy, we just started day 2. I see it as far too risky to have him sitting there with only a hammer needed. Plus, this is all tunnelling. Even if the majority of the town think Flay is scummy now, don't just sit with your vote on him. Throw your vote around and let's get some discussion rolling. In my last game (Newbie 963), I won as scum by just voting twice (then double voting with my partner on day 3 ftw) and keeping my vote where it was until people joined me and mislynched. Don't let scum do this here.

I've been pretty busy these last few days, but I plan on rereading soon and creating a case on a player who's name is not Flay or Zajnet. Hopefully that will spur discussion and attention to people other than Flay.

[CSL]

Bump to get votecount on next page.