Mafia on Holy Orders (Game Over!)


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Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 18, 2010 2:39 pm

Post by Socrates »

One of the ????'s is Sottyrulez, does anyone have any idea who the other is? It was a pre-in who's name never got revealed, so probably not.

(OH SNAP no random vote. I'm such a rebel.)
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Post Post #68 (isolation #1) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 8:01 am

Post by Socrates »

I would be fairly surprised to see an Ani scum flip.

I suspect some of the players that haven't posted yet don't know that day 1 has begun, as there was no notification as such. Minor town tell for all of them.
Mod: can you notify the players that haven't posted yet that the game has begun?


Friend, do you still support the Furcolow wagon? Why?
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Post Post #74 (isolation #2) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 8:12 am

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:@Socrates: Wagon? Sure. Pressure on him will let us know if he's a scum VI or not. Policy lynch, though? Hell no.

Now a question for you: Why do you think Ani is town?
Oh really? You are riding the policy lynch wagon for reasons of "pressure"? Well, he has gotten his pressure and responded quite clearly. Lets see some conclusions.

vote: Friend


Townies are more likely to instigate a policy lynch wagon while scumbags are more likely to ride shotgun on them (like you are, not coincidentally). Ani seems to genuinely think that Furc will be a disruption to the town and wants him dead. Regardless of whether his play is optimal or not, his motivations seem genuine to me.
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Post Post #97 (isolation #3) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:09 am

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Friend wrote:@Socrates: First off, I'm not on the wagon, which you seem to have missed. I don't want him lynched but I'm not fighting actively to diffuse it or anything - it's just an early-day wagon and those are always good. I don't think he has said enough to draw a conclusion, yet, honestly, although I'm leaning towards town. What do you think? Is he town or scum?
Thats exactly what I mean by riding shotgun on the wagon. You aren't going to push the wagon, but yay pressure!

I am firmly of the opinion that most people "pressuring for reactions" have no idea what the hell they are looking for. I'd like to see some specifics, why are you leaning town on Furc?

As for furc's alignment, I think everything he has done so far he would probably do regardless of alignment. He's frazzled and getting pushed around by the other players. This wagon is dumb, but not the kind of dumb that says anything about his alignment. Unless you are scum, in which case he is town.
@Socrates: Why am I more scummy than the other players "riding shotgun" on the Furc PL wagon (who've actually placed votes down)?
Because I got the impression that you were trying to have your cake and eat it too, attacking Ani and yet you still support the wagon that he started.

@sociopath: Do you plan on actually voting Furcolow any time soon?
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Post Post #98 (isolation #4) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:13 am

Post by Socrates »

Sebguer wrote:
Unvote

Vote: Furcolow[/b[

There is no way this guy is not scum. Seriously, just glance over his posts. He's either scum or an idiot. I'm sure he's going to be like "GAH, LOOK AT SEBGUER, TRYING TO LYNCH ME WHEN I AM HELPING TOWN WITH MY STUPID IDEAS AND POINTLESS POSTS INCLUDING POKER ANALOGIES THAT NO ONE BUT ME THINKS ARE INTERESTING. SCUM!"

I rest my case.
So he is either scum or an idiot. Why do you pick scum over idiot?
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Post Post #101 (isolation #5) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:23 am

Post by Socrates »

Sebguer wrote:Because lynching either is a plus?

He's scummier than anyone else who has posted.
Yes. Mislynching, always a plus.
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Post Post #120 (isolation #6) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:01 am

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:Socrates: This post feels just like VI-town to me. He's posted things similar to this that gave me that impression earlier.
Could you please attempt to articulate this impression more clearly? An important question to make such an articulation easier: What do you think a scum-VI would do differently?
Friend wrote:"Why is this bad? The wagon isn't going to lead to a lynch on page 5. I'm obviously not trying to distance myself from the wagon, and pressure leads to information which leads to finding scum.
See my second paragraph of that post.
Friend wrote:This is a complete cop-out. You acted like the wagon had reached the point where we could draw conclusions from his reactions, and then you provide none. I find that scummy.
I knew you would say this. I am NOT the one that intimated that wagons are productive. In fact, I specifically said that I think such attitudes are bologna, and me demanding content from you is me calling you out on such bullshit.

I never once said that Sebguer was scum.

PREVIEW:
Plum wrote:Why would scum be more likely to realize Day 1 began than scum?
The scum quicktopic, of course. (And before anyone says anything, I always assume scum can talk during the pre-game.)
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Post Post #123 (isolation #7) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:10 am

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:
Plum wrote: Ani never said Furcolow acts scummy as Town; he said that he provides poor reasoning and acts scummy across the board. He never said Furcolow acting scummy = Furcolow Town. The implication made, that Ani had reason to believe that Furcolow was, due to his behavior, Town, is completely illegitimate.
The only meta ani had of Furc was his TOWN META. That means that he had only seen Furcolow acting scummy AS TOWN.
You are misinterpreting Ani's intentions. He is not voting Furc because he thinks Furc is scum, he is voting Furc because he wants Furc dead no matter what he alignment is. That is the definition of a policy lynch. Are you doing this on purpose?
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Post Post #124 (isolation #8) » Thu Aug 19, 2010 10:12 am

Post by Socrates »

Beefster wrote:Holy cow. 5 pages already? I was gone like 20 hours...

Unvote

FoS: Furcolow, Friend

I can see either or both of them being scum. It's just gut right now, but I'll try to get in a little more logic once I unwind from school a bit.

I'm gonna wait for the next votecount before placing a vote though.
In an absolute vacuum, who would you vote? Do you think that could be scum together?
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Post Post #177 (isolation #9) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 7:22 am

Post by Socrates »

I am not a fan of the Beefster wagon.
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Post Post #181 (isolation #10) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:00 am

Post by Socrates »

What was your impression of the arguments that I have already given?

Do you believe that Beefster is deliberately giving sub-par contributions?
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Post Post #187 (isolation #11) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 10:32 am

Post by Socrates »

Iecerint wrote:I am sympathetic to Friend being scum, if you're referring to your argument to that effect. Your feelings about Beefster seem pretty nonspecific, though.

No, I don't think his contributions are deliberately subpar. I've never played with Beefster before, though, so I have no reason to assume as much. If you know something about him that you think is relevant for interpreting his behavior, please teach me. :P
In my view of the game, there are two main ways for one to justify that a person is scum.

1) Prove that some involuntary aspect of a player's play is indicative of a scum mindset. Basically, show that they wouldn't do what they are doing if they had a town role PM.

2) Prove that their actions are deliberately done with malicious intent.

We have ruled out the latter if we agree that Beefster's poor play is not deliberate, thus we must prove the former. So the simple question is this: What has Beefster done that he would not do if he was town? Even if someone makes the argument that his statements are not a legitimate means of contribution, that is largely irrelevant because Beefster himself MUST think that what he is posting holds weight even IF he is scum or he would not have posted it in the first place.

Comparatively, with Friend's play, I am coming from the latter perspective. I believe his earlier play had hints of dissonance with regards to his stances on Ani and Furcolow. His stance (Thinks Ani is scummy, but still supporting the Furc wagon) was a useful one as scum if both Furc and ani happened to be town, because if the wagon goes through (which was semi-likely, as Furc was rapidly digging his own hole at the time and gaining votes), he is well placed to attack the primary cause of the mislynch, thus a scum Friend would want the wagon to continue, but by only supporting the wagon indirectly and staying off of it himself, if the wagon fails to go through, he would be relatively safe from any fallout from that wagon. The dissonance comes in when his stances didn't make much sense from a town perspective, in my opinion. He thinks pressure on Furc was a good thing and wanted the wagon to continue, but was unwilling to participate in the wagon himself, and not only that, but he thought the primary pusher of the wagon was himself scum. His play doesn't make a lot of sense from town, but does make a lot of sense from scum.

My interactions with Friend have largely been me trying to gauge his honesty in his arguments, and to be honest, my scum read is fading just a little bit, but I still think this is the best place for my vote right now.
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Post Post #223 (isolation #12) » Fri Aug 20, 2010 2:26 pm

Post by Socrates »

Iecerint wrote:OK, so, @ Soc, your bit about BS doesn't make much sense to me. I'm going to summarize it as I read it so that I can show me where I am wrong:

There are 2 ways scum can seem scummy:

A) By accident
B) On purpose

You agreed with me when I said BS wasn't intentionally a crap player, so the question is whether he is scummy by accident. But it isn't an accident because he does it (?????).


So...are you basically saying "BS is VI"?

Also, I think we talked past one another on the first part -- I thought you were asking whether I thought BS was a player like Furco who deliberately plays with a scummy style.

I can see where you're coming from in the paragraph about Friend, though.
Saying "so and so is a VI" is an oversimplification of my argument. I don't feel like continuing this discussion much further, so I will just restate this as simply as possible.

I don't believe there has been sufficient justification that Beefster wouldn't do what he is doing if he was town, nor do I believe there is any significant scum benefit to his play.

Last time we had this argument you were scum voting for a townie. :/

----

I would bet very strong money that the smoke and light stuff comes from our two mystery players.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #13) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 3:23 pm

Post by Socrates »

Friend needs moar votes.

In other news, I reread and sebguer might need some rope. The first time through I missed post 102, which, while in a vacuum might not be particularly scummy, in context is shifty as hell.

Take a look at this exchange:
Socrates wrote:
Sebguer wrote:
Unvote

Vote: Furcolow[/b[

There is no way this guy is not scum. Seriously, just glance over his posts. He's either scum or an idiot. I'm sure he's going to be like "GAH, LOOK AT SEBGUER, TRYING TO LYNCH ME WHEN I AM HELPING TOWN WITH MY STUPID IDEAS AND POINTLESS POSTS INCLUDING POKER ANALOGIES THAT NO ONE BUT ME THINKS ARE INTERESTING. SCUM!"

I rest my case.
So he is either scum or an idiot. Why do you pick scum over idiot?
Sebguer wrote:Because lynching either is a plus?

He's scummier than anyone else who has posted.
Socrates wrote:Yes. Mislynching, always a plus.
Sebguer wrote:He's declaring someone's 98% scum from four posts. One of those posts was an RVS of Furc, the second was a "why do I need to justify my RVS?", third was "policy lynches are better for a vig to do", and last was calling out Furc's bullshit.

Furc is scum.
Let me simplify that for you:

That awesome guy: why is he scum and not just dumb?
Mister shifty: I don't care which he is.
That awesome guy: That's dumb.
Mister shifty: He is definitely scum for these reasons: blah blah blah.

The important observation here is that when I challenged his answer to my question, he didn't back up his answer or try and justify it,
he changed his answer
. Regardless of the veracity of his arguments (which I happen to think are crap anyway), it is different than the initial one he gave. He's probably scum that wanted to get in on the easy wagon. Scummy.
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Post Post #285 (isolation #14) » Sat Aug 21, 2010 6:31 pm

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:Socrates, what do you think about Fate's bogus "timing" argument?
Fate, The Voice of Socrates, Herald to the unwashed masses, has spoken. I seen no need to trouble myself with this issue.

It's very much in character for Fate, and is an argument I am not unsympathetic towards. You deployed a meta on an unfamiliar character with no further attempt to asses his motivations, giving the impression that you are not really worried that he is scum. Its an easy read for scum to fabricate, but one would normally expect a townie to be more paranoid. Compare to pacman's last post.
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Post Post #329 (isolation #15) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:28 pm

Post by Socrates »

I might be up for a Wraith power lynch if the Friend wagon dies, since people seem to not care the sebguer is scum.
Wraith wrote:Curious as to why there's a Friend wagon in the first place. What exactly has he done that is scummy?
Protip: when you want to know why people are voting someone, a good resource is
the post where they voted them
. Just a thought. Another idea is to read the entire thread, but sheesh, that's too much work.

In other news: Hey Plum! Where'd you go? Post in this game! Its where all the cool kids are at! Don't think I didn't see you post in your Hydra.

It doesn't look like Socio has posted on-site since Friday.

LL is V/LA right?

Who else is lurking? I can't be bothered to check right now.
Friend wrote:Socrates, thoughts on mothrax? He's been hypocritical, active-lurky, and a whole lot scummier than I feel I have been.
I might give you active lurking (but that could be a playstyle quirk, I need to check that out.), and he might need a bullet for that, but I think you misunderstand what AtE is in your hypocrisy accusation. Calling something dumb is not AtE. It's an insult, and one can insult someone and still be completely coherent in his arguments. AtE is when you go "My dog has just died! please don't vote me!" The key point being that the argument isn't actually coherent, it just preys on your emotions, and I see nothing of the sort in the post you are talking about. People make the same mistake with Ad-Hom all the time, which is why that word is on my list.

HEY MOTHRAX, GIVE ME A FULL PLAYER RUNDOWN.
Pacman wrote:Also, what do you mean at referring to my last post? I don't entirely understand that part.
You were all like "I don't care what your meta is, Fate, I don't trust you!" Speaking of which, what IS your take on Friend defending Fate via Meta?
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Post Post #331 (isolation #16) » Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:38 pm

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:Why do you want him to contribute, Socrates, is mothrax your scumbuddy?
Is that the best you've got? C'mon, try harder.

Maybe, and you didn't hear this from me, but maybe that Socrates fellow is trying to get a better read on Mothrax.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #17) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:35 pm

Post by Socrates »

unvote, vote: Wraith


Choo choo!
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Post Post #360 (isolation #18) » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:40 pm

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:Wraith tried to pull the same thing I did.
O.o

I don't know what to make of this.
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Post Post #409 (isolation #19) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 5:39 am

Post by Socrates »

Oh hey, a Vezo wagon day 1. I have yet to see a game that he is in where this hasn't happened.

Hey, Agar! I KNOW you've played with Vezo before. How is this any different from how he normally plays? And I don't want to hear any "I don't care if he does it every time he is town, it's scummy ANYWAY" bullshit.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #20) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 10:53 am

Post by Socrates »

Me=Weird wrote:Mind if I answer instead of AGar? I've played with vezo.
Shoot.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #21) » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:58 pm

Post by Socrates »

Wraith wrote:I have no scum partners. You'll have to figure out yourself who the scumbag(s) on my wagon are, unless you already know.
Thats quite the equivocation. So you aren't willing to try to pick out the scum on your own wagon? Even though you seem to be sure that there is scum there?
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Post Post #448 (isolation #22) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 2:29 pm

Post by Socrates »

I think it's hammer time.

Pac, do you still think that your vote is best served on Furcolow?
Me=Weird wrote:Let's see, in the other game, vezo had longer and more contentful posts, he seemed to know what's going on, he didn't OMGUS, and in general didn't do what he's been doing in this game. He was town.
Oh, you're wagon is "full of scum", is it, vezo? Do you think that's true, or is it just mass OMGUS? And I don't think the mod will care if you're just saying it to get the good stuff. Tomorrow, I'll look into fate and wraith.
Link? Cause I flat out don't believe you.
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Post Post #450 (isolation #23) » Thu Aug 26, 2010 2:36 pm

Post by Socrates »

Wraith wrote:Stop being a coward sitting on your fence and hammer me. When your lust for scumbag blood is not sated by my death, lynch vezok tomorrow. You'll find your scum there.
Who is this directed at? Pacman?
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Post Post #512 (isolation #24) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 3:44 pm

Post by Socrates »

Lets see,
MOD, I would like to request a prod on these players:
animorpherv1, Sebguer, AGar

Plum and LL are aparently V/LA

I was going to comment on how weird it is that Wraith has been sitting this long at L-1. I would have figured that one of scumwraith's buddies would have said "fuck it" and hammered him by now, unless he was a scum power role of some sort, but we have a lot of people MIA, so.
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Post Post #518 (isolation #25) » Fri Aug 27, 2010 4:02 pm

Post by Socrates »

Fate wrote:Socrates he just played out the whole "ZOMG I WAS FAKEHAMMERED" gambit, so of course they're gonna lie low and see if people will back off. Wagons can implode VERY quickly from this kind of "tell"

So uhhh
Really? People are dumb enough to buy that stuff? No scumbag worth their salt says "bah, go scum" until after the mod confirms the lynch. Even IF they believe they've been lynched. Especially since [redacted]. I might not be as confident on this lynch than I was earlier, but that certainly isn't going to be the reason I jump off.

Besides, this is the perfect opportunity for scum to show up and yell "Liar!" and hammer for quick "town points". (So get on it, scum.)

@Wraith: I don't know if you have noticed, but all of the active players are voting you.
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Post Post #523 (isolation #26) » Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:13 am

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:my read on him is townie
i'm sticking by my read
i am not hammering him, unless 3 people in a row tell me they want me to
Why in the world are you trying to get other people to peer pressure you?

You very obviously want to hammer, and you very obviously don't want responsibility for said hammer.

Fate, should we be derailing this wagon?
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Post Post #605 (isolation #27) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:32 pm

Post by Socrates »

:|

I'm kinda at a loss right now.

vote: Sebguer

mod: Have sebguer or Plum picked up their prods?


The list is obviously activity information. Number of days since last post and number of prods.
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Post Post #607 (isolation #28) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:38 pm

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:@socrates why did you change/remove your icon?
Its the hip new thing. All the cool kids are doing it!
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Post Post #610 (isolation #29) » Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:47 pm

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:I blame benmage.
Look, if you don't want to be cool by removing you avatar, then you can at least make up for it by voting Sebguer.
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Post Post #700 (isolation #30) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:43 am

Post by Socrates »

Hey Plum, I hereby pledge my vote to you for the remainder of the game day. Whoever you want me to vote, I will vote, no questions asked.

So, who do you want me to vote?
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Post Post #702 (isolation #31) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:48 am

Post by Socrates »

Top three scum:

Sebguer: argues his Furc vote with a healthy swab of uhhh, I forget the word, changing his argument to better fit his desired conclusions, rather than drawing conclusions from his arguments, as previously covered.

Friend: In addition to the dissonance that I went into when I was talking with Iec during day 1, he also antagonized Plum and refused to go along with her request on the grounds that she "Might be scum", with no consideration of whether or not the request was a good one. I don't know if that is actually a scum tell, but I want it to be one.

Furcolow: His actions around the end of the Wraith wagon are just plain weird and at least make coherent sense if he was scum not wanting to take responsibility for hammering a townie but wanting the day to end.

unvote, Vote: pacman
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Post Post #704 (isolation #32) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:50 am

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:I don't feel like conforming to your shit especially when I'm not so sure of your townieness.
Lies.
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Post Post #707 (isolation #33) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:53 am

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:especially =/= because
Your pendantry amuses me.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #34) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 10:54 am

Post by Socrates »

Socrates wrote:
Friend wrote:especially =/= because
Your pedantry amuses me.
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Post Post #711 (isolation #35) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:05 am

Post by Socrates »

Well, first of all, its the fact that you put the reason forward at all that gets my hackles up. If I wasn't deliberately constraining myself, I would call it a
true
example of the word I misspelled on my list. Discrediting someones arguments by saying they might be scum is flat out irrational.

Second of all, you haven't given any other coherent reasons for you stance than that one. "I feel it's not going to be very helpful." barely counts as a reason because you give no elaboration on why you feel that way, and you are only just now saying that.

The word is actually not entirely appropriate anyway, but it would be pedantic for me to point that out. It gets the point across.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #36) » Mon Aug 30, 2010 2:45 pm

Post by Socrates »

Friend wrote:Yeah, whatever Soc.

M=W is scummy cause he's pressing for VItown lynches. AKA "easy targets."
WHAT A REBUTTLE. I HAVE NO RESPONSE. I AM VANQUISHED.
Vi wrote:---I found out why the prods weren't going out. I assumed that after clicking "Submit", the PM actually went out instead of going to some kind of auto-preview. Have I mentioned in the last five minutes how much I hate phpBB3?
Are you remembering to click "Add" to the right of the field where you add the names of the people you are PM'ing? I had a similar problem before I figured out what was happening.
It's still an unnecessary double-submission to do that. ~Vi
Last edited by Vi on Mon Aug 30, 2010 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #37) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:08 pm

Post by Socrates »

ZZzzzzz...

Chronopie talked about a grand total of one player.
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Post Post #815 (isolation #38) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 12:09 pm

Post by Socrates »

But it wasn't the player with the highest vote total.

Conclusions?
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Post Post #819 (isolation #39) » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:12 pm

Post by Socrates »

zwetschenwasser wrote:Chrono just entered the game? what's your point soc?
If both Pac and Furc are town, Chronopie is also probably town.

If Chro is scum, then Furc is probably town.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #40) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:53 pm

Post by Socrates »

830 is soggy with a copious amount of town juice.

All of my reads are probably wrong. I should start over.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #41) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 6:59 pm

Post by Socrates »

mothrax wrote:@Plum
mothrax wrote:this whole cry for help/unison while on the surface, townish, reads as almost rehearsed, like scum planned it out.
That is why. Between the three of you(You, AGar, and Socrates) the call for order sounds like a huge rehearsed attempt to consolidate arounf you. Soc(rates) blatantly said he would follow you vote wise. It is quite possible he trusts you and has confirmed you in some way, but it is also possible that you are scum trying to lead the town by looking ubertown.
Every time I see this kind of argument I want to ram my head through my monitor.
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Post Post #856 (isolation #42) » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:25 pm

Post by Socrates »

Because your stance is basically that of mindless paranoia, as perfectly encapsulated by the phrase "Because I refuse to let someone pull wool over my eyes?".

I've already talked about this, this game, with Friend.
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Post Post #971 (isolation #43) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:20 am

Post by Socrates »

Back from my V/LA. I don't feel like catching up right now. Later.
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Post Post #990 (isolation #44) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:23 pm

Post by Socrates »

unvote, vote:Mothrax
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Post Post #992 (isolation #45) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:27 pm

Post by Socrates »

Mothrax is totally scum guys.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #46) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:30 pm

Post by Socrates »

You are confirmed scum. That's why.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #47) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:33 pm

Post by Socrates »

I am not explaining.
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #48) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:42 pm

Post by Socrates »

L-2 I believe. Furc, Iec, and CKD unvoted. Lets get this done as quickly as possible, people.
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Post Post #1015 (isolation #49) » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:59 pm

Post by Socrates »

Pacman might need to die tomorrow.
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #50) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:28 am

Post by Socrates »

I am considering a massclaim.
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Post Post #1042 (isolation #51) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:36 pm

Post by Socrates »

Yay for Charts!

Image
Image
Image

That was 2 hours wasted.

Furcolow is town, though.

I would be surprised if all three of the unvotes after the claim (960-981, Iec, CKD, Furc) were all town. Furc is town, so he's out. CKD immediately jumped on the pacman counterwagon (981) and then immediately jumped off (982), which confuzzles me greatly. The jump on the counterwagon fits with a scumbuddy that was bussing, but then he immediately stops.

>.>

mmmm.

Agar is probably town.

Friend was the first person (other than Agar) to kick off the Mothrax revival wagon. Town points for him.

Both CKD and Iec immediately follow him. Those two names again.

I'll look at this some more later.

I came across a post by Mothrax that makes Plum very likely town. I forget the post number, though.
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Post Post #1048 (isolation #52) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:42 pm

Post by Socrates »

X-axes are post numbers, Y-axes is total number of votes. Each color represents a different person.
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Post Post #1057 (isolation #53) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:05 pm

Post by Socrates »

Iecerint wrote:And each chart is a separate player's wagon?

Teach me how you're reading it. I can't get much out of it.
They are simply time-lines of what I consider the three major wagons of day 2: Furc, Pacman, and Mothrax.

Each post number is a post where someone hopped on or off of one of the wagons, and the colored area represents a player staying on the wagon over time.

Lets take a look at your space on the wagon:

Image
(The images seem to be shrunk to a fixed width, so click on the image for something slightly bigger.)

You hopped on at 888, and hopped off at 974. in the interveneing time, M=W jumped on (the light orange right above Agar) as did Furcolow (The dark Grey).

You jumped back on at post 997 right before Chronopie's hammer.

Does that make it easier to parse the image?

Here is a larger version of all three charts together: http://a.imageshack.us/img688/800/alltogether.jpg

I already shared what I immediately saw in the post where I originally posted the charts. I have some more to say, but first I have to respond to CKD.
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #54) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:07 pm

Post by Socrates »

I wrote: You jumped back on at post 997* right before Chronopie's hammer.
Typo: That should read 1007.
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #55) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:22 pm

Post by Socrates »

curiouskarmadog wrote:
Socrates wrote:X-axes are post numbers, Y-axes is total number of votes. Each color represents a different person.
so much work on graphs, so little work on answering questions.

what your graphs dont show, is my questioning I asked at the end of the day and your late arrival to the wagon...I would have revoted him, but I had signed off for the day and wanted him to answer my questions to be sure. Speaking of counter wagons, where was your vote for most of the day while the moth wagon was gaining steam(hint I know the answer to the question)?

do you think graphs are good ways to catch scum? have you ever used graphs before (as scum)? Given your voting history yesterday do you think you look scummy? Can you please redo the graph with your voting pattern.
I don't care that you would have revoted him. The point is that you unvoted in the first place. Your questioning only came
after
you left the Mothrax wagon and jumped on and off the Pacman wagon. Pray tell, why did you vote Pacman in post 981? As far as I can tell, it mostly came out of nowhere.

Yes, I was on the pacman wagon. Your point?

I like charts. I have used the charts before, but this was the first time I bothered sharing them (the previous times were trial runs, so to speak.). I don't think my voting history is either scummy or pro-town. Do you remember the context of my voting history yesterday? What do you mean, redo the graph with my voting pattern?
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #56) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:26 pm

Post by Socrates »

Plum, The chances of pacman and CKD being scumbuddies are pretty small in my opinion, and right now I think I am feeling a CKD wagon more than a pacman wagon. And yes, I might, in fact, have some POWERFUL WIZARDRY with respect to a massclaim.

vote: CKD
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #57) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:57 pm

Post by Socrates »

Iecerint wrote:I think there was some mothrax stuff D1, too, so....
Yea, but I don't have to time to go and collect that data.

Anyway, back to the charts.

I realize that I didn't explain why I declared Furc town. Day 2 started off with wagons immediately appearing on both Mothrax and Furcolow, and if both were scum I would expect at least some of the scum to push some third option other than the two of them (I recognize that scum like to bus, but I don't think the entire scum team would bus in unison.) Furthermore, Mothrax threw his vote down on Furcolow during this initial boost and he left it there for the entire day, never really looking for an excuse to move it (if I remember correctly). Furcolow himself hopped on and off of the Mothrax wagon something like 4 times, showing an inclination to wagon him over other targets.

The pacman wagon is harder to parse. It started growing during a time that the Mothrax wagon was all but dead, so there wouldn't be much reason for scum to push such a wagon over others other than for convenience. The only person to jump on the pacman wagon was Furcolow (which gives me some pause on him.) and CKD's psych-out vote in post 981.

Ehhhh. Why wasn't the Pacman wagon pushed harder as the Mothrax wagon grew? The easiest and most obvious answer is because Pacman himself was scum.

The only common players on the pacman and Moth wagons were Friend and Furcolow.

The most questionable presence on this wagon is Vezo, who joined at it's outset, but as soon as it started to grow, jumped off claiming the wagon had stalled, then jumps back on 55 posts later. ++scum points

I'm getting kinda burned out on this. I'll think some more later.
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #58) » Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:01 pm

Post by Socrates »

Iecerint wrote:Probably his point is that you left yourself off your graph, which keeps it from being a totes objective view of what happened.

Unvoting investi-PRs to evaluate shit is pretty normative IMO. Not that it's not likely that 1 one of us might be scum, if just via background probabilities.

I doubt CKD is scum (less than background probability). He knew I'd follow him to mothrax cuz I proxy'd, so it'd be a pretty ballsy wagonpush. But ye know.
But I did include myself? I am the light grey, labeled "me".

Ehhhh... I don't know how normative it is to unvote the claimed power role before you have evaluated the claim. Maybe unvoting from L-1 to avoid a hammer, but just that. And besides, the problem I have has more to do with the fact that his first inclination was to vote pacman.

Your second point does speak to me, though.

unvote
, while I consider.
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #59) » Wed Sep 08, 2010 6:51 pm

Post by Socrates »

AGar wrote:Socrates, what's the hardline reasoning behind a massclaim?
SECRET INFOS. The more we talk about it, the less effective it will be. If my reasons aren't up to snuff after we do a massclaim, then you can lynch me.
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #60) » Fri Sep 10, 2010 3:59 pm

Post by Socrates »

If vezok flips town, there are at least two scum on his wagon.
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Post Post #1116 (isolation #61) » Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:08 am

Post by Socrates »

Vezok is confirmed town, everyone unvote. (There is actually exactly one scenario where Vezo is scum, but it is incredibly unlikely.)

vote: Locke Lamora
for now.

Massclaim is officially useless.
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Post Post #1128 (isolation #62) » Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:04 pm

Post by Socrates »

Pacman, if you are town, you need to learn a little something about trust. If I am scum then I am a dead man walking, no question, so you can afford to trust what I am saying for as long as it pans out as I say it should.

My head says I should vote pacman, but my gut keeps making me hesitate.

erghh......

unvote, vote: pacman


I want to see a claim from you.
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Post Post #1129 (isolation #63) » Sat Sep 11, 2010 6:04 pm

Post by Socrates »

That's L-1, by the way.
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Post Post #1144 (isolation #64) » Sun Sep 12, 2010 6:14 am

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:soc, i know you trust i'm town, and my read on pacman is VI. I know VI can be scum, but I feel he is likelier to be something that people confuse as mafia than mafia if you get my drift without me opening speculation as to his role. I urge you to unvote, and vote locke lamora again, as that was a brilliant move to shift a wagon to a scummy player.

1) i liked pacman's sort of "this is not good to ponder on the glow" post
2) i disliked locke lamora's disspeculation in relation to the glow. His post of #1122 feels like scum planting negative seeds of doubt.
3) analyze the votes: soc votes locke lamora, locke votes me=weird to distance himself from a scummate (my take on it)

i could be wrong, but that is my synopsis of the past page
Ehhh.... Thats pretty much my misgivings about this lynch as well.

You agree that he is scummy, are you up for a wagon on Locke?

unvote, vote: Locke


Come on, pretty much every player in this game has agreed at some point that this player is scummy scum, but a wagon has never materialized. Lets put the fear of god into him!
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #65) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:21 pm

Post by Socrates »

Plum wrote:THEN AGAIN Locke has done barrels of nothing all game. AND Soc <3

I wanna settle with Pac, but if y'all have reservations elsewhere . . .

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Locke Lamora
<3. We need more posts like this.
Furcolow wrote:
vote: vezokpiraka
You get your ass off Vezo and back on LL or consider my town read on you revoked.
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Post Post #1177 (isolation #66) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:23 pm

Post by Socrates »

Me=Weird wrote:I still find vezo very scummy though.
Thats fantastic. Everyone finds him such. The thing is, is that he is town.

So who is your number 2? LL?
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Post Post #1193 (isolation #67) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 6:53 pm

Post by Socrates »

Furc: This is Vezo's first post after the Locke wagon formed:
vezokpiraka wrote:Claim. And die.
CKD. Do you understand how stupid it is to ask someone who doesn't want to claim and has been called obvtown?
Locke was already at L-1.

So are you saying a town Vezo blindly hammers instead of asking for a claim first?
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #68) » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:36 pm

Post by Socrates »

Furcolow wrote:I am saying that vezokpiraka would have been on that wagon earlier had they not be scumbuddies because he wagons at any given opportunity.
But he hadn't posted on site at all during the interval that the wagon grew. (Remember that he hit L-1 in less than a day) Isn't him being late on the wagon more likely to be attributable to the fact that he wasn't at the keyboard?
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #69) » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:07 pm

Post by Socrates »

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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