Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over

[yabbaguy]

BTW Zajnet, the "my case doesn't exist" argument is invalid.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.02

Zajnet - 3 - yabbaguy, Netlava, drmyshottyizsik
drmyshottyizsik - 1 - Alduskkel


Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz, Zajnet

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9

V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until foot surgery

(when?)

[The Fonz]

Well, Zajnet, consider that you returned from V/LA at mylo-vig, and proceeded to talk about the setup instead of anything to do with who we lynch. Like I said before, active lurking. Or the fact that you're unwilling to stick your neck out early on, but perfectly happy to hammer or put people at L-1 once other people have set someone up.

[Netlava]

That puts me at L-2. I don't see a point to claim yet because I still don't see a solid case against me, but don't lynch me without letting me claim.

Lack of scumhunting, for one.

[yabbaguy]

Prod zajnet please. Hasn't been 72 hours yet, but we are all waiting on him.

[Nobody Special]

11) I do not (always) automagically prod players. If you would like a prod sent, ask in-thread.

Prods will not, however, be sent until a player has not posted for over 72 hours.

I am, however, revising my ruleset for future games to take the threshold down to 48 hours. I will prod Zajnet as soon as he is eligible.

[/color]

[yabbaguy]

Typed it from an iPhone, didn't feel like clicking those itsy-bitsy page numbers to read the rules and go check. >_<

I'm still assuming I'm 100% correct on Zajnet until he or someone else refutes it.

[ekiM]

OK, massclaim is a bad idea.

Kind of waiting on Zajent to respond to stuff..

[Zajnet]

I don't see a legitimate case against me, so I have nothing worth responding to regarding that. I would like everyone currently voting for me to post their own unique reasons for voting me, more than just one sentence, and I will tell you who is scum on my wagon and why, then if people still want to lynch me, I'll claim.

[The Fonz]

^
|

Stalling.

The fact of the matter is, the case is based primarily on what you haven't done, not what you have, so it's not going to be very long. That doesn't make it invalid. I mean, by that logic, you could never really lynch lurkers.

[Zajnet]

Thanks for the answer. I am not stalling. I know that I'm not scum, so I can assume that there are scum on my wagon. Analyzing my wagon is thus the best way for me to scumhunt right now.

[yabbaguy]

Analyzing my wagon is thus the best way for me to scumhunt right now.

Good idea!

Try doing it.

[Zajnet]

OK, massclaim is a bad idea.

Kind of waiting on Zajent to respond to stuff..

What do you want me to respond to?

[Zajnet]

Notes about my wagon:

I wish I didn't believe drmyshotty's claim because he's the most bandwagonning scummy player I've ever seen.
Most probably yabba is town, he seems to be actively scumhunting, and has legitimate reasons for voting for me.
Very much on the other hand, Netlava, I find particularly scummy, especially this sentence:

Also, as a general note, we are close to lylo. With 3 scum in the game and 8 players left, after a mislynch and a NK, then it's 3 scum remaining in a 6 player game. So we need to be careful about our votes.

I think this is an attempt to misrep the situation to get townie points, as we are not "close" to lylo, we are at lylo.
Granted, if the vig hits scum tonight, we won't lose, but we are still technically at LyLo today, plus, he doesn't mention the vig at all in that sentence.

[ekiM]

Revelation.

Known for sure: VVCT???

If drmyshottyizsik is telling the truth: VVCDDT?

We get that T from assuming that there is no serial killer, which seems reasonable. Chances are high we'd have seen more kills than we have if there were one. However, this assumption tells us more than that there is one T. It tells us that either there is one T, or there are three Ts. That is, the set-up is either:

VVCTTT? where the ? is not a T or a V

or

VVCDDT? where the ? is not a T, a D, or a V.

What were the a priori probabilities for one T vs 3 Ts? 5% and 27%. It's roughly five times more likely that a random set-up has 3 Ts than 1 T. That's enough for me to want to lynch.

I said yesterday that Nurse seemed like a bad scum claim, but this was based on the idea that the full set-up would come out eventually and catch him out. However it's quite possible dr just didn't think that far ahead and went for the fakeclaim that would at least delay his death, didn't require night actions, and was less likely to be countered. Also, we're in pseudo-LYLO on D2 and massclaim is not going to happen because there's a vig out there, possibly he could have figured this was likely and gone for it for that reason.

Add to that dr's major scumminess throughout the game, and at this point I'm thinking lynching dr is our best move today, unless someone can explain to me why the above isn't correct.

[Zajnet]

Revelation.

Known for sure: VVCT???

If drmyshottyizsik is telling the truth: VVCDDT?

We get that T from assuming that there is no serial killer, which seems reasonable. Chances are high we'd have seen more kills than we have if there were one. However, this assumption tells us more than that there is one T. It tells us that either there is one T, or there are three Ts. That is, the set-up is either:

VVCTTT? where the ? is not a T or a V

or

VVCDDT? where the ? is not a T, a D, or a V.

What were the a priori probabilities for one T vs 3 Ts? 5% and 27%. It's roughly five times more likely that a random set-up has 3 Ts than 1 T. That's enough for me to want to lynch.

I said yesterday that Nurse seemed like a bad scum claim, but this was based on the idea that the full set-up would come out eventually and catch him out. However it's quite possible dr just didn't think that far ahead and went for the fakeclaim that would at least delay his death, didn't require night actions, and was less likely to be countered. Also, we're in pseudo-LYLO on D2 and massclaim is not going to happen because there's a vig out there, possibly he could have figured this was likely and gone for it for that reason.

Add to that dr's major scumminess throughout the game, and at this point I'm thinking lynching dr is our best move today, unless someone can explain to me why the above isn't correct.

You have a valid point. I guess if drmy flips town, the vig can hope to save us.

[Zajnet]

EBWODP: UNVOTE: VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Alduskkel]

Huh. Good posting by ekiM.

Zajnet, who do you suspect other than drmy?

[Alduskkel]

Also I know you suspect Netlava. But do you have any other suspicions?

[yabbaguy]

Unvote

.

If the vigilante has to stay secret, I reckon a massclaim as outlined below would be helpful.

Phase 1: Claim Doctor/Not Doctor. If all say Not Doctor, lynch shotty. If one says "I'm Doctor"...
Phase 2: Massclaim with Vig claiming Townie

If no Doctor comes up, shotty becomes the obvious choice. If a Doctor does appear, it either is accompanied by a single PR claim for VVCDD*T, where * is any non-T input, and if nobody claims, we have VVCDT??, and shotty's claim doesn't fit (VVCDDTT falsely implies an SK) .

I haven't seen any other reasons for dissenting against massclaiming, nor do I see one myself. I'm still analyzing if Mafia can sabotage this method somehow...

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.03

drmyshottyizsik - 2 - Alduskkel, Zajnet
Zajnet - 2 - Netlava, drmyshottyizsik


Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9

V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until August 29

[The Fonz]

I thought of asking for a doc claim myself, but if no-one else does, a scumbuddy of drmy can claim doctor, and probably won't get lynched for it, and we're at mylo so that could be game over. Plus, on the off chance the scummiest player i've ever seen does flip town, having a hidden doctor around for the possibility of a save is useful: if the scum know who the doc is, they just target

him

.

I think plan as originally submitted is good. Only one T is an outlier possibility.

unvote, vote drmyshottyizsik

@ZAj: funnily enough, Netlava does look really scummy. The problem is, at least half the game, you included, falls into two or more of the three boxes marked 'Opportunistic,' 'Lurky,' and 'Little original content.' So yeah, he's scummy, so are you, so's doctormy. So were beefster and dry-fit.

[drmyshottyizsik]

@ Mod surgery is tomorow will be v/;a untill sunday

Noted. ~~NS

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.035

drmyshottyizsik - 3 - Alduskkel, Zajnet, The Fonz
Zajnet - 2 - Netlava, drmyshottyizsik


Not voting: ekiM, Prox, yabbaguy

With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9

V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until August 29

Please see Rule 17.

[yabbaguy]

Yeah, there's a lot of ways Mafia can jerrymander with my system. I'll cave to the RNG guessing game.

Vote: shotty