Open 236 - Pamplona Mafia (C9++) Game Over
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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BTW Zajnet, the "my case doesn't exist" argument is invalid.yabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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Nobody Special Survivor
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Votecount 2.02
Zajnet - 3 - yabbaguy, Netlava, drmyshottyizsik
drmyshottyizsik - 1 - Alduskkel
Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz, Zajnet
With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9
V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until foot surgery(when?)
Last edited by Nobody Special on Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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Well, Zajnet, consider that you returned from V/LA at mylo-vig, and proceeded to talk about the setup instead of anything to do with who we lynch. Like I said before, active lurking. Or the fact that you're unwilling to stick your neck out early on, but perfectly happy to hammer or put people at L-1 once other people have set someone up.-
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Netlava Mafia Scum
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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Prod zajnet please. Hasn't been 72 hours yet, but we are all waiting on him.yabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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Nobody Special Survivor
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Nobody Special wrote:11) I do not (always) automagically prod players. If you would like a prod sent, ask in-thread.Prods will not, however, be sent until a player has not posted for over 72 hours.I am, however, revising my ruleset for future games to take the threshold down to 48 hours. I will prod Zajnet as soon as he is eligible.
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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Typed it from an iPhone, didn't feel like clicking those itsy-bitsy page numbers to read the rules and go check. >_<
I'm still assuming I'm 100% correct on Zajnet until he or someone else refutes it.yabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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ekiM Mafia Scum
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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I don't see a legitimate case against me, so I have nothing worth responding to regarding that. I would like everyone currently voting for me to post their own unique reasons for voting me, more than just one sentence, and I will tell you who is scum on my wagon and why, then if people still want to lynch me, I'll claim.My GTKAS
"okay who the fuck didnt kill me." - nintendoaddict1-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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Thanks for the answer. I am not stalling. I know that I'm not scum, so I can assume that there are scum on my wagon. Analyzing my wagon is thus the best way for me to scumhunt right now.My GTKAS
"okay who the fuck didnt kill me." - nintendoaddict1-
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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Good idea!Analyzing my wagon is thus the best way for me to scumhunt right now.
Try doing it.yabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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Notes about my wagon:
I wish I didn't believe drmyshotty's claim because he's the most bandwagonning scummy player I've ever seen.
Most probably yabba is town, he seems to be actively scumhunting, and has legitimate reasons for voting for me.
Very much on the other hand, Netlava, I find particularly scummy, especially this sentence:
I think this is an attempt to misrep the situation to get townie points, as we are not "close" to lylo, we are at lylo.Netlava wrote:Also, as a general note, we are close to lylo. With 3 scum in the game and 8 players left, after a mislynch and a NK, then it's 3 scum remaining in a 6 player game. So we need to be careful about our votes.
Granted, if the vig hits scum tonight, we won't lose, but we are still technically at LyLo today, plus, he doesn't mention the vig at all in that sentence.My GTKAS
"okay who the fuck didnt kill me." - nintendoaddict1-
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ekiM Mafia Scum
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Revelation.
Zajnet wrote:Known for sure: VVCT???
If drmyshottyizsik is telling the truth: VVCDDT?
We get that T from assuming that there is no serial killer, which seems reasonable. Chances are high we'd have seen more kills than we have if there were one. However, this assumption tells us more than that there is one T. It tells us that either there is one T, or there are three Ts. That is, the set-up is either:
VVCTTT? where the ? is not a T or a V
or
VVCDDT? where the ? is not a T, a D, or a V.
What were the a priori probabilities for one T vs 3 Ts? 5% and 27%. It's roughly five times more likely that a random set-up has 3 Ts than 1 T. That's enough for me to want to lynch.
I said yesterday that Nurse seemed like a bad scum claim, but this was based on the idea that the full set-up would come out eventually and catch him out. However it's quite possible dr just didn't think that far ahead and went for the fakeclaim that would at least delay his death, didn't require night actions, and was less likely to be countered. Also, we're in pseudo-LYLO on D2 and massclaim is not going to happen because there's a vig out there, possibly he could have figured this was likely and gone for it for that reason.
Add to that dr's major scumminess throughout the game, and at this point I'm thinking lynching dr is our best move today, unless someone can explain to me why the above isn't correct.-
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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You have a valid point. I guess if drmy flips town, the vig can hope to save us.ekiM wrote:Revelation.
Zajnet wrote:Known for sure: VVCT???
If drmyshottyizsik is telling the truth: VVCDDT?
We get that T from assuming that there is no serial killer, which seems reasonable. Chances are high we'd have seen more kills than we have if there were one. However, this assumption tells us more than that there is one T. It tells us that either there is one T, or there are three Ts. That is, the set-up is either:
VVCTTT? where the ? is not a T or a V
or
VVCDDT? where the ? is not a T, a D, or a V.
What were the a priori probabilities for one T vs 3 Ts? 5% and 27%. It's roughly five times more likely that a random set-up has 3 Ts than 1 T. That's enough for me to want to lynch.
I said yesterday that Nurse seemed like a bad scum claim, but this was based on the idea that the full set-up would come out eventually and catch him out. However it's quite possible dr just didn't think that far ahead and went for the fakeclaim that would at least delay his death, didn't require night actions, and was less likely to be countered. Also, we're in pseudo-LYLO on D2 and massclaim is not going to happen because there's a vig out there, possibly he could have figured this was likely and gone for it for that reason.
Add to that dr's major scumminess throughout the game, and at this point I'm thinking lynching dr is our best move today, unless someone can explain to me why the above isn't correct.My GTKAS
"okay who the fuck didnt kill me." - nintendoaddict1-
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Zajnet Mafia Scum
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Alduskkel Jack of All Trades
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Huh. Good posting by ekiM.
Zajnet, who do you suspect other than drmy?CLICK HERE FOR THE ALDUSKKEL APPRECIATION PAGE
"i've only known aldus for four and a half months but if anything happened to him i would kill everyone in this room and then myself" -Datisi, March 28 2020
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Alduskkel Jack of All Trades
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Also I know you suspect Netlava. But do you have any other suspicions?CLICK HERE FOR THE ALDUSKKEL APPRECIATION PAGE
"i've only known aldus for four and a half months but if anything happened to him i would kill everyone in this room and then myself" -Datisi, March 28 2020
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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Unvote.
If the vigilante has to stay secret, I reckon a massclaim as outlined below would be helpful.
Phase 1: Claim Doctor/Not Doctor. If all say Not Doctor, lynch shotty. If one says "I'm Doctor"...
Phase 2: Massclaim with Vig claiming Townie
If no Doctor comes up, shotty becomes the obvious choice. If a Doctor does appear, it either is accompanied by a single PR claim for VVCDD*T, where * is any non-T input, and if nobody claims, we have VVCDT??, and shotty's claim doesn't fit (VVCDDTT falsely implies an SK) .
I haven't seen any other reasons for dissenting against massclaiming, nor do I see one myself. I'm still analyzing if Mafia can sabotage this method somehow...yabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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Nobody Special Survivor
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Votecount 2.03
drmyshottyizsik - 2 - Alduskkel, Zajnet
Zajnet - 2 - Netlava, drmyshottyizsik
Not voting: ekiM, Prox, The Fonz, yabbaguy
With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9
V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until August 29
Last edited by Nobody Special on Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.-
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The Fonz Jack of All Trades
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I thought of asking for a doc claim myself, but if no-one else does, a scumbuddy of drmy can claim doctor, and probably won't get lynched for it, and we're at mylo so that could be game over. Plus, on the off chance the scummiest player i've ever seen does flip town, having a hidden doctor around for the possibility of a save is useful: if the scum know who the doc is, they just targethim.
I think plan as originally submitted is good. Only one T is an outlier possibility.
unvote, vote drmyshottyizsik
@ZAj: funnily enough, Netlava does look really scummy. The problem is, at least half the game, you included, falls into two or more of the three boxes marked 'Opportunistic,' 'Lurky,' and 'Little original content.' So yeah, he's scummy, so are you, so's doctormy. So were beefster and dry-fit.-
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drmyshottyizsik Jack of All Trades
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Nobody Special Survivor
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- Location: Not here
Votecount 2.035
drmyshottyizsik - 3 - Alduskkel, Zajnet, The Fonz
Zajnet - 2 - Netlava, drmyshottyizsik
Not voting: ekiM, Prox, yabbaguy
With 8 alive, it is 5 to lynch. Deadline: September 9
V/LA: drmyshottyizsik, until August 29
Please see Rule 17.Last edited by Nobody Special on Wed Aug 25, 2010 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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yabbaguy (O)ptimized
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Yeah, there's a lot of ways Mafia can jerrymander with my system. I'll cave to the RNG guessing game.
Vote: shottyyabbaguy ~ Winning without actually winning.
Town: 10-21 | Mafia: 3-4 | Other: 0-1
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