Newbie 1010 (Game Over)

[Yoenit]

Confirm

[Yoenit]

Vote Spadille

blame random.org

[Yoenit]

Vote:silverbullet999

Don't blame me, the RNG made me do it!

Using a random number generator is very scummy, I have my eye on you now!

[Yoenit]

[Wall of quotes and comments]

Wowha! TLDR. I think it would increase readability if you reply to one person at the time, instead of several in one post.

Questions:
- What is forum policy with regards to quoting other posts and length and stuff
- What do L-1, L-2 and L-3 mean?

[Yoenit]

What do you think is the best way to start off an F11 (the setup we're playing)?

RVS seems to work fine

If RVS:
How would you decide when to end RVS?

It will end naturally, if only because there has to be a lynch candidate by the deadline.

What if no one reacts to anything?

Lynch somebody at random eventually

What would you say is the maximum number of votes a person can have?

during RVS: 1-2, after that it becomes suspicious very quickly

How would one vote "randomly"?

you answer your own question already, RNG, systems, bullshit reasons all combined

[Yoenit]

Just to clarify, if we get 5 votes on one person at any point, he will be lynched right? Even if the deadline is still 2 weeks away, or are the votes only counted at the deadline?

[Yoenit]

Gonna read this through and post some thoughts this evening or tomorrow, busy now

[Yoenit]

Sorry for being not posting for so long. Despite what Neil says I haven't touched a pc since I last posted. I have quickly read most of the thread, but no doubt missed some things. For now, lets start with replying to comments aimed at me.

@Yoenit:

Looking forward to the bigger post you said is coming up tomorrow. Some of your answers in ISO #4 would seem somewhat scummy, but it could be attributed to being new. Hopefully your next post will offer more content.

Do you mean these answers?

What do you think is the best way to start off an F11 (the setup we're playing)?

RVS seems to work fine

If RVS:
How would you decide when to end RVS?

It will end naturally, if only because there has to be a lynch candidate by the deadline.

What if no one reacts to anything?

Lynch somebody at random eventually

What would you say is the maximum number of votes a person can have?

during RVS: 1-2, after that it becomes suspicious very quickly

How would one vote "randomly"?

you answer your own question already, RNG, systems, bullshit reasons all combined

I assume you see the "lynching people at random" answer as scummy, but normally I play on a very rapid deadline (24 hours), which usually means everybody is still quickless at the end of day one.

Why have you been lurking (I've seen you on a couple times) but not said anything?
You do realize you're planting a big "I AM SCUM" sign on your back?

I have not touched my pc since I last posted. However, I added this website to my starting pages, so it automatically logs in whenever somebody turns on my pc (just removed it again). I also happen to have a roommate with a crappy pc who often uses mine to play games when I am not around.
About it making me highly suspicious, I am aware of that but can do very little about it. Sorry again for not posting so long.

[Yoenit]

I have no problem pressuring Yoenit to get him to post, but theres no reason to auto-lynch him. It's still early, and we know that Portuguese is his first language, so he may have been having some trouble keeping current or following some of this. He may also just be very busy.

Portuguese? not me, thats Vinicius Chaim. I have been very very busy though (stupid RL deadlines, is no fun).

anyway, I don't like yoenit's act's so far, he doesn't even explain why he's not posting or anything else
so, he's now my top scum suspect(now, ahead my top suspect[I think it's not the time to put all my thoughts in the table])
so
VOTE: Yoenit

3th vote on me? Meanie... I did nothing (wrong)!

[Yoenit]

Sorry to see you go Spadille. Best of luck surviving in the wilderness.

VOTE: unvote Spadille, Vote Vinicius Chaim

Just a placeholder for now, as my vote on Spadille was random and it would be rude to have a replacement enter the game with such a vote on him. Picked VC because he voted on me (screw you argument), was the third voter (scumtell ahoy!) and doesn't seem to have posted much yet.

[Yoenit]

As it seems that you're going to be very active regardless of whether or not I have my vote on you, I'm going to

Unvote

and VOTE: Yoenit, as out of all the people in this game he's posted the least content. The point of the vote mainly is to force him to post more, as the more content a person posts the more we have to dissect.

First vote on me, to draw out a reaction. Seems reasonable

Back all and have caught up. I will VOTE: Yeonitfor lurking. Will post more later.

Seems to have the same intention as Ups, more getting me to post that actively suspicious of me. I am still interested in the "post more later" part which never seems to have been posted.

bandwagon is really scummy, and I knewI'd be accused of it when I voted, but, at least until now, I don't regret my vote, you still are my top suspect so far

Now this is where it gets weird. I go from being not active enough and lurking, to top suspect. Really, with some 200 posts to work with the best you can come up with is the guy not posting? That is why you risked to be the third voter?

[Yoenit]

Dear VC, how could I explain I am a townie? Your only argument is me not posting and the only defense for that is that I was busy in real life with an important deadline.
What more could I possibly say to show I am a townie?

[Yoenit]

Wow dude you really ARE paraniod. You seriuosly thought I decicded to make up a list on my own? Dude that is total overreaction to an RVS vote. I also think someone is made over the read they got from me...

It's not hard to make up a list, in fact I just did one in about 2 minutes. It doesn't seem that big of a stretch to think that, for these reasons:

1. It takes a few minutes.
2. It'd be an easy way to vote off some good contributors if you're scum without even having to defend yourself (granted, now I realize you weren't specifically trying to vote me off. But again, with 4 votes needed to get me out of here on top of your vote, that's a scary place to be in my position. Especially like Yoenit, where he got 3 votes within a page?
3. What are the chances that the list just HAPPENED to figure itself up as you to be 2nd, the last poster before you as 3rd, and Yoenit who it said was looking at the page at the time to be 4th? Unless you listed it personally, because of memory coming into play that those were the people that we're online / just had posted. I think THOSE chances are a lot better then the chances that ALL THREE of them happened randomly.

Would you like a better explanation of 3? Sure.
The chances of me coming out first is 1/9. That's a 11% chance that's right.
The chances of me coming out first, AND you just happened to come in 2nd? 2/18 which is a 2.5% chance.
Let's limit it a bit more shall we? THEN the 2 people, who just posted and was just looking online came up 3rd and 4th? That's another 2.5% chance, or altogether you have a heck of a slim chance. To be exact, a little less then 4% is your chances. Now, let's look at the opposite. What are the chances that by memory, you reconstructed a list as a way of throwing my name out there with a vote? I'll give you a hint, so you can understand this Raz... It'll be a LITTLE better of a chance then the former. Just in case you're not too good at math.

4. Then you decide your comeback? "Oh, he's just mad at me for my vote on him!" This is a WIFOM (or circular may be a better word to use here) argument in which I could say "No it's not!" Until I'm blue in the face, but I've already shown why my votes on you. None of which really has ANYTHING to do with the fact that you voted on me earlier on in this game. You're vote just HINTED me towards this, that's all.

Wth, who cares about that stupid list? I believe Raz when he says it was just random. Knock it off, so the guy can answer more important questions, like why he voted on me. Also your post seems "angry" and "aggressive", which does not seem like pro-town behavior. Then again, Raz ain't acting pro-town either. Can't get a clear read yet, but this discussion is not positive for the both of you.

[Yoenit]

And one more before I'll probably turn in for the night.

3. What do you do about people that bandwagon?

3. sorry, what's a bandwagon?

bandwagon is really scummy

Either he's freakin' deductive or played dumb. Not sure what to make of that.

Neither, somebody explained to him what a bandwagon was in between those two posts.

[Yoenit]

Raz: Post 218

He tells Yoenit he voted for him while he was lurking, as if apologizing. Yoenit never asked why Raz was voting for him? Raz looks to be trying to win over another member of the town to try and hop on the band wagon of votes for me (a few posts back, he even mentions Yoenits name at the bottom of his attack on me, as if saying "yes, Yoenit is right!") which confuses me. Why would a townie, try to befriend another townie to help him out someone, unless the person who is trying to befriend someone else, is actually scum trying to win approval? Also to take note, he still has yet to defend himself against the attack myself and Civil laid down on him.

While I agree with most of your observations about Razgriz this comment just jumped out to me as plain wrong. First off, I asked why he voted for me in post 216, so he was just answering a question. "voted when you was lurking" is not really the answer I was looking for though. Secondly, I don't see any post where he mentioned my name at the bottom, besides 217, where he says "SIMUL with yoenit", which means he did not see my post before replying. Also, you seem to be doing the very thing you accuse him off: mentioning me as if trying to befriend me. For some reason you needed to include my name 10 times in that last post of yours.

On a totally different tangent: Civil scum, could you formulate a case against Ups (or any other target of your choice). So far you have playing the role of benign IC flawlessly and everybody seems to think you are town. As you seem a little too clean, could you please come down here and start trowing mud at somebody?

[Yoenit]

@neil

Well, I am of course the most important person alive and Razgriz vote on me was an important part of your argument. Still the amount of namedropping you did in that post seemed odd. I added the point about befriending as an afterthought when I saw you had accused Razgriz of doing so, but didn't think it was very strong anyway. Hence I did not follow up with scum accusations etc, but switched to Civil.

@Razgriz

Your call for evidence seems a bit strange, what could we possibly prove on day 1? Please explain what you would find acceptable evidence for lynching somebody on day 1.

[Yoenit]

Well, I am of course the most important person alive

Excuse me?

Ditto. What is that supposed to mean? Maybe a cop?

Nah, just a failed attempt at humor, proving once again sarcasm does not work on forums.

Or is it? <insert diabolical laughter here>

[Yoenit]

Well, I am still here, just not sure what I should post.

[Yoenit]

unvote

vote: Vincius Chaim

Was that better?

? I feel like I am missing something here

[Yoenit]

My vote has been on vinicius chaim for quite a while, but I am puzzled about your sudden change of heart. Again, please explain what made it so very obvious?

[Yoenit]

Should probably point out that according to the votecount olinea is both voting and not voting at the same time.

Fixed.

[Yoenit]

Hello Caterpillar.welcome to the game!

Neil, why did you think it likely there was a cop? As oli states, it is a 50% chance no matter which role you are.

[Yoenit]

I'll do the other four tomorrow, but I have a question for everyone, who are your top two scum picks at the moment? I realise that most of you will have recorded this information in your posts anyway but things may have changed since you expressed them and what not.

Ever since I voted Vinicus Chaim he has only become more suspicious. I don't have a clear second spot, but I have some reservations about everyone else for some reason or another.

[Yoenit]

VOTE: unvote vote Civil scum

I will post a detailed explanation later today, when I got time.

Also, is everybody aware Razgriz is currently at L-1?

[Yoenit]

hmm, that did not come out the way I expected. Just for clarity, I meant:

unvote Vinicius Chaim

VOTE: Civil Scum

[Yoenit]

Allright, like I promised, my explanation for why I changed my vote to Civil Scum. Neil's reply to my vote might give some insight in that:

Hmm, interesting vote choice Yoenit. Also, I'm very aware that there are 4 votes on Raz and Raz is at L-1. I'm comfortable with that, because out of everybody right now Raz would be my highest suspicion rated person. Evidentially, 3 others believe that too. Though I will admit, unless you have pretty damning evidence against him,

I'm going to be looking at you for trying to change suspicions off of two VERY likely scum suspects

... >_>

Notice the bolded part, that is more or less what I am gonna accuse Civil of now. In his case however he is not drawing away attention from two scum suspects, but just from one : Vinicius Chaim.

Lets start at the beginning:
post 404:

I think that Yoenit, Nevermind, and probably Catepillar are okay. But

I really think that one of Raz and Vincius has to be scum

(obviously I've been wrong before), and it seems quite possible to me at this point that they both are.

naming his probably townies and most likely suspects. Notice especially the bolded part.

post 405:

And

vote: Vincius Chaim

Aw crap, I already am on the vote count

here we have Civil reinforcing his vote on VC, then being disappointed that he was already voting for him. A honest mistake? or something else? If he had not been already on the vote count he would have put VC at L-1 right here.

post 412:

I think if VC flips town somehow then the scum are likely to be Olinea and Nevermind, possibly Yoenit.

What the hell? what happened to "I really think that one of Raz and Vincius has to be scum"? Suddenly two of his probable villagers are named as likely scum and Razgriz seems to be totally ignored. I have no idea why I am included, but what he does here with Olinea and Nevermind is really slick: he names two people who have recently posted they are suspicious of VC but have not yet voted for him because they did not want to put him at L-1:

post 384:

Dislikes reading long posts yet creates them. Fantastic. I'm getting slightly town on him.
Nevermind, might I ask why didn't you vote VC in #28 when you unvoted in the same post?

Didn't vote since I didn't want to put him at L-1 (i think he was at L-2 at the time I fos'd him)
And everyone hates reading long posts right?

post 388:

Chaim's on my radar, I don't know if his defenses are lacking because of the language barrier or the inexperience. He hasn't done anything recently to make me go as far as to push him to L-1. I can't let the whole "He's new here" thing get in the way of voting, because he has just as good of a chance as anyone else to be scum.

By calling them likely scum if VC is town he cleverly dares them to put their vote on VC "prove their innocence". Olinea apparently picks up on this and does so not much later:

post 421:

Chaim, if you're gonna tell us "I get Town vibes from everyone", maybe L-1 will motivate you to dissect and find at least one scum target.

Vote: Vinicius Chaim

Now all of a sudden Civil Scum seems to think Vinicius Chaim should not be at L-1, while he tried to put him there himself a few posts back. Instead he starts attacking Olinea for voting VC, using "he is just a newbie, he can't play the game very well yet" as a defense argument.

post 426:

Couldn't he be a newbie townie, and not be able to do that? Or really be lost?

And him "rectifying" that would convince you he was town?

then switches off VC to Raz, putting him at L-1 without a proper explanation why he thinks Raz belongs there, while FoS'ing Olinea at the same time.

post 431:

unvote

vote: Raz

Fos: Olinea

Ladies & gentlemen (or actually only gentlemen I think), what I believe you have just witnessed is scum very smoothly setting up somebody to L-1, then suddenly switching off himself while crying "scum!" against the last voter and putting somebody else at L-1 without explanation.

But why would he do that?
- Lets say VC is lynched and turns up town: Civil can now say he switched off in time and point at Olinea as likely wolf, hiding his own part in getting VC to L-1 in the first place.

- Lets say Raz is lynched and turns up town: Civil says now he has suspected him all along and just did not put his vote on earlier because of the VC stuff, which is a very reasonable argument and not particulary scummy. He also gets a lot of friend points from VC this way and can just get him lynched the next day. This option is not as good as the first one, but he might actually count on people jumping off Raz as a result of his sudden vote.

When does this theory fail:
When either VC or Raz is lynched and turns up scum. I still think both are decent scum suspects, they are just not compatible with Civil being scum as well.

[Yoenit]

Allright, like I promised, my explanation for why I changed my vote to Civil Scum. Neil's reply to my vote might give some insight in that:

Hmm, interesting vote choice Yoenit. Also, I'm very aware that there are 4 votes on Raz and Raz is at L-1. I'm comfortable with that, because out of everybody right now Raz would be my highest suspicion rated person. Evidentially, 3 others believe that too. Though I will admit, unless you have pretty damning evidence against him,

I'm going to be looking at you for trying to change suspicions off of two VERY likely scum suspects

... >_>

Notice the bolded part, that is more or less what I am gonna accuse Civil of now. In his case however he is not drawing away attention from two scum suspects, but just from one : Vinicius Chaim.

This is not correct, when I started writing the argument I thought VC was scum, but I later realized that would make no sense. I forgot to change this part of my post however.

[Yoenit]

I've got conditions to take it off. The ball's in his court.

Handing over responsibility for your vote to the person you're voting...

No, clearly explaining what he can do about it, instead of voting somebody without an explanation like you did...

Civil, why exactly did you change your vote so sudden?

I'm uncomfortable with my vote on VC atm because Olinea's vote is backed by such suspicious reasons

Please also explain why you put it on Raz instead of just unvoting.

Go Yoenit, Go for it!

I would rather you focus on answering questions then posting fake encouragements like this.

[Yoenit]

Giving you all a two hour extension to 10:00 AM EST/2:00 PM GMT due to the fact that I'm extremely unlikely to be awake for the current deadline.

Last time I checked we still had 8 days. Wrong game perhaps?

I changed it now while it had occurred to me both so that I wouldn't forget it and to give you all an early warning.

[Yoenit]

I'd like to know how Yoenit feels about Olinea piggy-backing and following his vote. Especially after Olinea basically said in Post 447, that he was going to wait for a while and then vote for me.

Well honestly, you voted for him first. I think it was more a response to that than anything I posted. Haven't properly the new posts since my last vote though, so there might be something I am missing.

Kids, what is it called when you fight an accusation, with an accusation rather then a defense? Ah, that's right. A WIFOM.

Thats not how I understand WIFOM from https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ront_Of_Me

[Yoenit]

Sorry people, I forgot to mention I would be away this weekend. See I got some pages to read up now and olinea is top suspect at the moment. Will have a look at it tomorrow morning.

[Yoenit]

Allright, a full read from me:

Olinea

I have read the last 3 pages and I don't understand why Olinea is at L-1 now. He could have done better in is his argument with Civil Scum perhaps, but I still get a town read of him, which is more then I can say about some other people. I agree with many of his assessments of other players and think he is just trying to hunt scum best he can. If I am wrong and Olinea flips scum I am his obvious scumpartner and will be lynched for it, but I honestly think

verdict: town

Civil Scum

: Defended himself reasonably well against Olinea. Early in the game i accused him of being "too clean", he definitely got rid of that image now. Given the number of pages of this discussion and the number of suspects put forward I just can't shake the feeling that all of us are being played by very, very good scum. The only people I judge capable of that are Civil and Neil. I tried to pressure Civil based on this theory before the weekend and he acquitted himself reasonably well only then proceeded to crusade against Olinea who somehow ended up at L-1? I am still unsure, but I do think he would be bad lynch today. To bounce back a question: Civil, how do you feel about Silver, VC and now Caterpillar taking your argument against Olinea and running with it?

verdict: neutral, potential to be scum mastermind

UNVOTE: Civil Scum

Neil

: Like I said above, what I have seen of this guy convinces me he has the potential to be another evil mastermind. He didn't slip up the way Civil did however and I have seen very little which could be used against him. As there are 6 other townies in the game it is unlikely he is scum at this point.

verdict: town, slight potential to be scum mastermind

Razgriz

: Never understood the case against him and what it was build on. Seems genuinely trying to help the town, unlikely evil mastermind

verdict: town

Nevermind

: Lurker. I see nothing what could convince me he is either town or scum. Hiding in inactivity is a scum trick, but I am not very active myself so it would be hypocritical to call somebody scum because he can't spend much time on the game. Would really like him to become more active though and he seems to react to being called scum, so

verdict: slight scumread

Catterpillar

: Repaced relatively late in the game, not very active. I dislike him putting Olinea at L-1, but he at least he backed it up better than VC or Silver. Worth keeping alive to see more of him, if only because I want to know my own read which still hasn't been posted.

verdict: neutral

Vinicius Chaim

Was my vote target until Civil pulled his little vote switch. His recent actions have put him back up in the top spot. For example, see his reasoning behind his vote on Olinea:

I can't believe I'm about to do this.

Unvote: Civil Scum

well, like I said, I didn't buy this one and got my FoS on him...

You did indeed. Your argument for that was that he was trying to "fly under the radar" with his unvoting post. As far as I know that means not attracting attention to yourself, which I don't recognize at all from Olineas post.

Then we'd better get crackin'.

I'd like to see reads of

the entire town

from Nevermind, Silverbullet, Chaim, and Catterpillar. Don't try to dodge out of it, like "I don't really know what to think of X or Y or Z". And my BS detector is raging right now, so be honest.

why not from you, too?
or we should say: "only them 4 are the suspects, I'm town!"

Do you seriously suspect anybody to ask for reads about themself? I don't see what is scummy about this statement.

Also, Civil, if we were the scum team this would probably be one of the most epic plays ever.

I definately didn't accept this one, you got many scum points in my book...

This is a thing called humor, which is apparently very dangerous in a game of mafia.

2. Is it considered bad sportsmanship to hammer yourself if you think it'll help the town? For example, if we're close to the deadline, and I've got 4 votes, would it be a... erm... "dick move" to hammer myself so on Day 2 there'd be a 2/7 chance of finding scum rather than 2/8?

self attacking?
"I'm gonna kill myself, I'm inocent, but I'm tired of being accused"
come on, I can't understand how you'd be townie after all...
UNVOTE: never

VOTE: Olinea

Really, why not? Selfhammer to prevent a no lynch is pro-town when you have an odd number of players. You attach some emotional bullshit reasons to his question for no reason and slam a vote on. So what exactly was the scumtell here which made you decide to vote Olinea? which of the quoted parts convinced you he was scum? All you say is: I don't buy your arguments, you already have to many scumpoints, without explaining where he got those scum points from. What I see here is inexperienced scum quoting some points, trashing them without actually pointing out anything suspicious and then adding his vote to the bandwagon (freaking 3th voter again!)

verdict: Scum

VOTE: Vinicius Chaim

Silverbullet

Seems to think fluf can disguise for posting actual content (good observation somebody else). Also voted on Olinea without proper backing in an argument similar to VC. In his case I just did not understand the argument instead of seeing it for bullshit. Another post explaining why he voted Olinea would be greatly appreciated. For now you are my second scum suspect.

verdict: likely scum

[Yoenit]

-Yo... Yoenit

Razgriz: Never understood the case against him and what it was build on. Seems genuinely trying to help the town, unlikely evil mastermind verdict: town

So downplaying a vote... is helpful to town? So not questioning someone or putting pressure on someone when they are your number one.. is helpful to town?

I said he was trying to help, not that his actions were always helpful. After all this is a newbie game, so mistakes will be made and learned from. His intentions seem genuine to me. I do not recognize the points you speak off, please give some post numbers or quotes where these mistakes from Razgriz are discussed if you intent to sway my opinion.

Silverbullet Seems to think fluf can disguise for posting actual content (good observation somebody else). Also voted on Olinea without proper backing in an argument similar to VC. In his case I just did not understand the argument instead of seeing it for bullshit. Another post explaining why he voted Olinea would be greatly appreciated. For now you are my second scum suspect. verdict: likely scum

Would you care to quote the fluff, besides where the game died down and I was very busy? Would you also care to read my post where I reply to Civil where he voices his slight concern for the reason? Actually, would you mind reading posts before making a new one?

wow, You are actually right. Your last 14 posts or so have been almost flufless. Sorry, unsure how I missed that the first time I read them. This does effect my read on you. Right now I would put you on slightly scum, but that is just because I don't trust your vote on Olinea. Would you be so kind to explain your reasoning behind the vote again?

[Yoenit]

@Civil, why should VC not roleclaim yet?

[Yoenit]

Makes sense

[Yoenit]

From the wiki:

To read in Isolation. You can view one person's posts "in Isolation" by using the "Display posts from previous" drop down boxes at the bottom of every page.

[Yoenit]

Yoenit, if I may try to convince one person quickly:

...I have convinced myself, just by this one tiny little point, that [Civil is] town.

I raised the point, that considering that Olinea unvoted VC to vote me, he would have to assume that I had placed myself in absolutely pointless and tremendous danger to go for one mislynch over some other mislynch. Now, I didn't realize it at the time, but in his change of heart post, Olinea doesn't reason this in the same way. He just claims to be going off the basis that I wouldn't of tried so hard to get the -one- mislynch, on him. (Which makes sense, if we consider his experience, realizing/thinking as scum that running through a Civil mislynch this game would have landed him in hot water). Not only is it a little tenuous to propose that no IC (my experience is supposedly factored into his reasoning) had ever gotten carried away, or done it by mistake, or pushed a mislynch really hard and got away with it (rest assured I've done this many times irl), it should be even less convincing if Olinea really suspected VC. It was not totally clear whether or not he still did inbetween then and now, until he used his past suspicion of him just recently. He should be now, or during the interim depending on "when" he began leaning towards VC again, "closer to the fence on me." If VC were scum (compared to the mislynch to mislynch thing I would have done), if VC were scum, then I'd have much much more reason to have taken a chance at nailing a townie (if I thought I had a good shot at it- like when there are two top suspects, and going to be plenty of votes with perhaps not the most original reasoning given, at a relatively good time for me to "change my mind" and "sorry, guys, damn, messed up on that one, it happens a lot") and saving my scum partner in the process. I know I said I'm not sure if I would think the risk would have been worth it, but it is FAR AND AWAY a less gray area of WIFOM than VC and Olinea being townies and me still jumping all over Olinea.

If Olinea really suspected VC now, or in the interim, it should have seemed more reasonable that I could be scum and would have tried to drive a lynch on a townie who looked opportunistic. If he though VC is scum, then he shouldn't have a feeling of "I'm certain of your townieness on this tiny point." And at the least, he should be closer to the fence on me than the extreme area he claims his read is in now.

But, given his second look at VC and his now voting for VC, he never moved, and isn't moving closer to the fence on his read of me now.

The explanation for this has two likely possibilities in my mind:
1- He doesn't really suspect VC.
2- He knows VC is a scum, and I am a townie. And because of that, failed to factor "thinking" VC is scum into how his read of my play should be affected.

If understand you correctly the core of your argument is that if Olinea truly believed VC is scum, he would still be suspicious of you, because of your unvote when VC reached L-1, as that would be a typical scum move. A good point and one I should have another look at. One thing however, option 2 is only possible if VC and Olinea are scumpartners, which I would consider very unlikely given his L-1 vote on VC when Razgriz was at L-2.

Could you explain (as best you can cause I know sometimes you can't really explain reads but) what about Olinea's dropping the case on me that made you feel like he's just a townie trying to find scum and make the right decisions, as compared to the 'Oh crap, this has quickly become a lose/lose situation for me' (which is how I read it).

It really is time to send him back to his Mod.

His reasoning behind the unvote seemed logical and one I could have made myself. You were attacking him quite hard at the time but he was still at L-4, so there was no immediate reason to abandon his vote on you. However, I see I need to reread page 23 now with your argument in mind. Oh, what is Mod in this case?

[Yoenit]

A big problem for me is that as VC and Olinea are very unlikely scum partners as I said in the previous post. My theory that VC is scum and your theory that Olinea is scum are therefore incompatible. If I were to switch over to Olinea now I would have to completely drop the case on VC and I am not ready to do that yet.

[Yoenit]

Can we stop talking about partners before we know who one half of the pair is? If we extrapolate wrong at this point and get it into everyone's heads that if soandso flips scum then soandso is definitely their partner there's a risk that scum might have NKed them but didn't because of this which would have cleared the so called partner and helped us find the

actual

scum.

uhm, no. It is directly related to who I am voting for right now, so we should discuss it now. Note I am not talking about likely scumpartners, but extremely unlikely ones.

[Yoenit]

Can we get someone to hammer already? I mean I don't mean to insult you oli but your promise could be complete bull and just a way for a no lynch to occur because half the town is seemingly deadish at the moment. Thus you get to live one more day and we lose a townie.

He is gonna selfhamer

12 hours before the deadline

, surely there is anybody online in that time who can hammer him for breaking that promise? I am at least, but I think Civil hammering VC is a better idea.

[Yoenit]

Did not see that one coming.

[Yoenit]

I'll keep you guys in suspense. Wait for Bird to post the flip.

aka scum. Bah, shame on me

[Yoenit]

Civil,

You made a post that interested me a few pages back. I don't know where, because I've just gotten done reading up on like... 10 pages. Eh. Anyways you said something along the lines of "A No-Lynch could be the WORST thing we do." But I must ask... in the end, the Scum can only kill one of us. But if we mis-lynch, that's two of ourselves that wind up dead by Day 2. So how is a No-Lynch worse then a Mis-Lynch?

No lynch is worse than a mislynch, as you want to have an odd number of villagers. Compare situation A & B below:

Situation A: we do not lynch anybody on day 1 (0% chance of lynching scum), mafia kill a villager every night.

Day 1: no lynch. 0% chance of catching scum
Day 2: 8 people remain, 2 scum. If we are just guessing 25% chance of lynching scum. Lets say we screw up and lynch a villager
Day 3: 6 people remaining, 2 scum. 33% chance of lynching scum. It is lynch or lose now. Lets say we lynch a scum.
Day 4: 4 people remaining, 1 scum 25% chance of lynching scum, still lynch or lose.

Situation B: we mislynch a townie on day 1 (chance is 22% you catch a scum), mafia kill a villager every night.

Day 1: 9 people, 2 scum. 22% chance of lynching scum. Lets say we mislynch
Day 2: 7 people remain, 2 scum. If you are just guessing 28.6% chance of lynching scum. Lets say we have another mislynch
Day 3: 5 people remaining, 2 scum. 40% chance of lynching scum. It is lynch or lose now. Lets say we lynch a scum.
Day 4: 3 people remaining, 1 scum 33% chance of lynching scum, still lynch or lose.

If you do not lynch on day 1 you waste a 22% chance of catching scum and your chances of catching them on later days are lower as well. The best thing to do if you don't lynch on day 1 (and don't have a doctor) is actually not lynching again, so you end up with 7 people on day 3.

V/LA untill Tuesday

before I forget

[Yoenit]

You do realize you just practically speaking, said it's better to kill off a townie then to no lynch for "odds" of catching scum. Seriously? Do I even need to say anything?

I am not sure if you are mathematically challenged or just pretending not to understand. Assuming the latter, which gives you a shitload of scum points. Maybe somebody will explain later, maybe not. I don't care, back on tuesday

[Yoenit]

So, I am back and we have Raz at L-1. Time to respond to some stuff

You do realize you just practically speaking, said it's better to kill off a townie then to no lynch for "odds" of catching scum. Seriously? Do I even need to say anything?

I am not sure if you are mathematically challenged or just pretending not to understand. Assuming the latter, which gives you a shitload of scum points. Maybe somebody will explain later, maybe not. I don't care, back on tuesday

This post was made out of frustration. I was about to leave on a weekend trip when I saw daybreak was early. Neil was making an incorrect argument so I made a little post to explain it (which actually took me 10 minutes of typing and tweaking orso, I don't type very fast). I could have done other things with the limited amount of time I had, but I decided to be helpful and point out a mistake. And what do I get as a response? Some kind of appeal to emotion which is totally wrong and seems to imply I am an idiot. I knew Neill was not stupid (I named him as possible scum mastermind earlier), so why did he react in such a way? Only thing I could think off was that he was doing so on purpose, or had some kind of special condition which leaves him incapable to understand any form of math (you never know, I had this terrible rant against somebody who seemed to be incapable of reading a graph once, only to find out the guy was blind and using text to speech conversion) Pretending not to understand it would be really weird thing for a townie to do, hence it giving him scum points. "shitload" was just my frustration speaking. In hindsight it is understandable what is going on here. Sorry for your loss Neill.

You didn't want to vote Olinea, based on that you were so sure VC was scum, and you couldn't see them being scum together... so both of them died and all you've naturally talked about/or mentioned since coming back is your V/LA and a disagreement about no-lynching...something doesn't seem right to me about that.

Like I stated above, I was about to leave on a trip and had limited time (still had to pack my stuff). I could have made a post along the lines of "I don't know what is going on! I really thought VC was scum, but I was wrong! Need to look the thread over again, but X and Y look scummy to me", but decided to clear up a misunderstanding instead and leave the suspicion posts till I got back.

Now, with respect to the current situation:
Lynching Raz seems tempting, but if I hammer him now and he is a townie the scum will make me the scapegoat and lynch me tomorrow (and then we lose the game). Nevermind is conviently on the Raz bandwagon based on Civils argument while at the same time FoSing him (setting him up to take the blame if Raz is town?) I am not sure where Civils suspicion against Caterpillar is coming from, did I miss something?

[Yoenit]

V

ery nice to get to t

a

lk to you a

n

d the others today.

I

t is a great day after a

ll

.

A

nyways, Civil Scu

m

h

a

s made me do this because o

f

h

i

s

a

bility to manipulate all of you

g

uys.

O

h well, if the mafia wins they deserve it because the t

o

w

n

is being stupid, but oh well. I may self-hammer cause of this soon because of the town's weakness to be manipulated.

Vanilla goon... is that supposed to be a joke or something? Can't say I find it really funny

[Yoenit]

... alright can we all agree to wait til the 13th? basically the game will die down but I really don't see any rush.

Fine with me. Razgriz certainly seems the best lynch at this point.

He doesn't really have a case, or anything to base his 100% suspicion off of, really. That has been part of my point.

What makes you think he's going to be able to do this after not doing it for a month.

So you would rather lynch him right away? That reminds me of your posts against Olinea at the end:

Nevermind esta lurkivo! Muchos Grandes!

Neil went to the bathroom when the check came!

Why the fuck are you getting so angry about this

-I might have misread a tone into your post.

-I'm frustrated that Olinea hasn't been lynched.

-Your original quote was addressed to me (or phrased that way, anways (ie- "

Your

______is making Me)), so coupled with a "You're not the only player here asshole"-reading, I didn't like the comment.

-Also I'm frustrated that Olinea hasn't been lynched yet.

-Also I'm frustrated that Olinea hasn't been lynched yet.

-Also I'm frustrated that Olinea hasn't been lynched yet.

-

And we all remember how that turned out. I really hope for you Razgriz is scum, for you are the obvious lynch target tomorrow if he is not.

[Yoenit]

Say the cop reveals himself now and points out which townie he scanned.

If we mislynch and the cop is killed tonight, we end up with 1 confirmed townie tomorrow. However:

If we mislynch and the confirmed townie dies, we end up with one suspicious cop, even if he is real. If he says he scanned a scum tonight, there is no way to know whether we should believe him. This does not seem to have any advantages over a cop claim on day 3.

There is also the high change Razgriz is scum, in which case you sacrifice a cop who could have scanned two more people (day 3 and 4)

[Yoenit]

Ah yes, the roleblocking, forgot about that one

BLEH

unvote, vote: Civil Scum

He seems too good to just forget. Probably a mafia goon with a goon partner.
Razgriz can wait.

I have to admit I completely forgot about the possibility of a roleblocker as well, so I can't really hold it against him (even if he is our IC).

[Yoenit]

Is this the day Razgriz dies, or WHAT

Well, he should be back now for a few days, but has not posted anything yet. Lets start by getting him back at L-1, as Nevermind unvoted.

VOTE: Razgriz

[Yoenit]

Raz post your case by midnight if you are town. Thus your words will mean something when you flip, If you aren't town feel free to still stay silent. I'll hammer around midnight.

Midnight GMT? Or where do you live?

[Yoenit]

mod, Nevermind is voting Civil scum

Fixed.

[Yoenit]

Oh, early daybreak again? Raz being a townie was quite a suprise, why did he act so damn scummy if he was just a townie?

My top two choices at the moment are:

Nevermind, who has been lurking as a mothaf*cker, as Civil so elegantly pointed out on day 1

Civil Scum, who is either scum or an extremely destructive townie, being the driving force behind both the Olinea and the Raz mislynch.

[Yoenit]

@ Civil, even though you were not directly responsible for putting raz at L-1, you where attacking him quite hard once he got there. If you don't remember, reread page 31-33. Therefore I think you are more responsible for the Raz lynch then Neill, who completely backed off when Raz got to L-1. Note, backing off at that point is actually quite scummy.

Speaking of Neill, your "I would rather not say" was painfully obvious. I gotta agree with Civil here, but I am more then willing to hear you out if really want to claim cop.

[Yoenit]

Others:
Civil
Yoenit
CP

Which brings me to the conclusion that one of you three are scum. I don't believe Civil is good enough to pull off the mask that he'd had to have played this whole game if he was scum, which leaves me with Yoenit and CP, though if one of them don't come out scum, we lose. So Civil, if you really want to make such a case against me, so be it. But mark my words for after you do:

I. Am. Not. Scum.

There are two scum, so either two of us are scum or you are lying. I can take of only one reason for this mistake: You are the second scum yourself.

[Yoenit]

I made this draft yesterday, but decided to postpone posting it to see how caterpillar would respond to the question asked by Neil. He didn't do so and instead goes VLA for 4 days. How convenient.

Civil:

Yes, obviously this was a strange comment.

No, it was not a strange comment. It was a conclusion from a "process of elimination." Simply that. As far as where to lead the town right now, I'd say we either go after Yoenit, or CP.

You should have concluded 2 of us 3 are scum instead of only 1 out of 3. I am not scum, therefore Catterpillar and Civil have to be the scum pair or you are lying. I would put my money on the latter as Catterpillar + Civil is an unlikely combination. That nothing happened to you last night does not fit with that pair, unless Civil is making mistakes on purpose just so he can point them out the next day (don't think so).

But who could your scum partner be?

- Civil: unlikely, for he forced you to claim cop and was very critical. If he was your partner he could have played it much better and gotten a mislynch out of the village by now.
- Nevermind: WIFOM argument for putting him up as your "fake" scan, possible.
- Catterpillar: Is being accused now together with me, but you could shift off and focus on me from now on. (or do a very nasty teamkill and get him lynched so you look townie).

With this in mind, I no longer think Civil is scum. He would either have killed/blocked Neil last night or wouldn't have forced you to claim today if he was. Neil is scum and Catterpillar/Nevermind is a 50-50.

[Yoenit]

First of all,

Speaking of Neill, your "I would rather not say" was painfully obvious. I gotta agree with Civil here, but I am more then willing to hear you out if really want to claim cop.

referred to this section of a post you made a few hours earlier.

Neil, you're continual soft-claiming of 'cop' while quickly trying to run a lynch through is not good for the town. Firstly, all it would take is one townie who "missed it" and then we've blown it. Nevermind that you have all but stated it frankly. But now's abouts the time you either clearly claim cop outright/official-like, or you say you were messing around. And then we can go from there. I'm sure some of us will have questions for you at that point.

To tell you the truth, I'm initially skeptical. I don't think you would have risked soft-claiming right before the end of D-2 if you were really the cop.

They, Yoenit mostly, seem too quickly onboard with "agreeing with Civil" that we shouldn't immediately believe Neil's claim. Yoenit especially sounds like he came to that conclusion real quickly.

Probably because I found his yesterday "he is not a cop" already quite obvious and I couldn't imagine the scum missed it. Then when he posted "I would rather not say" today it was so obvious it was better just to make a decent claim. I agreed with you Civil because I had the same idea, not because your argument convinced me or something.

[Yoenit]

meh, quote tag fail. I am sure it is still readable though

[Yoenit]

Something he would say because neither he nor his scum buddy had come under serious scrutiny from any single player. Which would probably mean that it's Neil & Nevermind or Neil/Yoenit. All 3 of which have largely escaped suspicion for the majority of the game.

What about Neil/Caterpillar?

[Yoenit]

Hate to be pulling a Catterpillar on you, but I am not gonna be here tomorrow and I will have little free time till tuesday.

I will postpone any game comments till I have seen caterpillars reaction to the vote on him.

[Yoenit]

Alright. Screw it, I don't think Neil is lying about this.

vote: Catterpillar

VOTE: Catterpillar

[Yoenit]

Well, it was a great game. You both deserve the win -- you played very well. Yoenit was probably the most pro-town player out there to me, but that's the element of good scum play.

Nice play by Neill on day 3, thought it was gonna end with one of us dead for sure.

[Yoenit]

You win some and you lose some.

Bird, thanks for GMing the game.