Open 253: Sea Container C9++ [GAME OVER]

[Mafuyu]

@Yellow: Japanese names are notoriously easy to pronounce due to syllabic structure. What be you smoking?

Tidbit:
For general C9++ conjectural play...don't. If it isn't obvious why, look at Mafuyu's last C9++ for the rationale why.

[Mafuyu]

Someone is stretching meta-knowledge.

Unvote Vote Sleepless Assassin

Pushing this case too hard.

[Mafuyu]

Hey guys, scumbuddies arguing, making sillies of themselves to start the day?

Ey? Eeeeyyy?

[Mafuyu]

If I was scum, I would have left Furc alive solely because of HP Mafia, because he had problems convincing the town to lynch his reads.

Now now, 'would have' arguments lead to very dark places with bad mistakes.

[Mafuyu]

Now now, 'would have' arguments lead to very dark places with bad mistakes.

Not really. How would we catch scum if we were clueless about what they "would" do?

Delving too deeply in to "X player as scum would have went after Y" just leads to "Well, they might have", and that's pretty much it. Worst case scenario is a premature outing of roles (yay case evidence).

That is to say: focus on the now, and not the before-this-game. Meta only works so well.

[Mafuyu]

Why massclaim is bad: Cherry-picking. The higher up the town power role scale goes, the more immunities and tricks that scum get to bag.
This leads to a substantial benefit for scum, and a marginal benefit for town.

Putting it more simply, a massclaim will only lead to an information-manipulation game, which by the nature of this game town is ridiculously ill-equipped to handle.
How many C9++ games have there been thus far? Mafuyu's kinda curious now.

[Mafuyu]

It's not "might or might not". It's about determining whether or not we think they did. Currently, I think it makes sense and his response has reinforced my thoughts.

It might be player bias that Mafuyu thinks otherwise. This is exactly why Mafuyu would up revealing Mason status in the last C9++, because of meta-based 'might have's. It just seems like it would lead to probabilistic uncertainties at best.

Yes, player A knowing player B might thus kill them for X reason. They might also kill players C-D for Y reason. X reason has a slightly better result for A-scum's play. However, C-D might also have killed B for Z reason or Y reason, which means that at the very best you wind up with a slightly weighted bias towards B. The fact that you are pushing it to the degree you do is obvious (you want to gauge reactions to see if X>>Y in methodology, thus if A is scum then A MUST have killed B), but it still neglects C-D players.

Sum: Yes, you might be right that he has good reason as scum to play as he has. Unless you account for the rest of the playerbase, however, this is leverage at best and player-biased tunnelling at worst. And to be honest, your entry reasoning for his play is horrible and easily negated by the simple observation that players will tend to tweak their play the more games they play. You're not going to make a disputable comment about his previous games and expect it to fly now, that's just poor form.
Bonus: Also keep in mind that you're making a scum/sk setup play right now. Also keep in mind that it has actually worked in the past.



Now then, for Mothrax. More votes on him are in order, if only to make him squirm and see what oozes out. Mass-claim is silly for easily-noted reasons, so the simplest rationales for his play are:
1. Stupid throwaway scum.
2. Lack of effort in interpreting setup base results (how doing X publicly would affect the game)
3. Attempting to gauge reactions.

Bear in mind that of the two towny reactions, neither are actually weighted towards being town reactions. Gauging is something both sides are capable of doing (and something an SK must eventually do) and a lack of effort can be attributed to anyone that's just playing the game casually or with more important things on their mind.

So, if he's going to convince anyone that he is town, Mafuyu thinks he'd better hit the ground running or lose credibililty.

[Mafuyu]

And, as further exposition on the topic of massclaim:

Mafuyu still believes that this setup is one in which SK/Scumteam communication is actually a strong D1-2 play. Should 1. Massclaim occur and 2. Both anti-town teams properly establish the other, an irreversible amount of damage can be done to town. While this actually favors the SK (who is basically immune to scum night-play antics), it's a viable strategy for both anti-town teams as scum will have superiority in numbers to eventually betray the SK and the SK will have information to slowly manipulate the town towards offing their rivals.

[Mafuyu]

Interesting method of misinterpreting Mafuyu's intent so as to regain ground.

The jump on SA isn't so much of pushing a case, but doing so

badly

. Your 'better than everyone else' comment means nothing considering that it's still early in pagecount where that's not significant indication of relative player effort.

Also, if Mafuyu thought you were more deserving of a vote than SA, it would happen. Are you saying that Mafuyu can't attack more than one player at a time? Don't claim that someone who is attacking your play is wishy-washy just because they choose not to vote you. What you are doing is analyzing singular parts of Mafuyu's posts and using them to derive an immediately negative conclusion, which doesn't even match up to the intent of the post. Yes, you need a wagon because reaction-gauging via the topic of massclaim is risky and will otherwise lead to obvious conclusions (everyone says no), therefore ulterior motives are to be expected. Maybe, you might be scum, and Mafuyu outlined why. Not voting a player immediately after an outlined discussion does not mean wishy-washiness. Many players can and will go after multiple players without voting them all.

You're biting back for little reason, and Mafuyu believes this to be feigned outrage considering the structure of your last three posts. It's odd for you to try an AtE this early, and unfortunately Mafuyu doesn't see the reasoning for it yet.

@SA: It was a general question, therefore anyone that had any idea could have answered it. To the second, Mafuyu DID sum up that entire letter argument right underneath. To the third, because you were doing it for an odd amount of time and it was Mafuyu's belief that you still retained that intent. Lastly, Mafuyu's last C9++ had "X died as Doctor. There was 1 death. Y is not dead, and Mafuyu would have gone after Y. Therefore, Mafuyu is scum" as a method of attack (by the SK). It worked.

@Mothrax: A quicklynch isn't happening. Don't presume that town is reckless.

[Mafuyu]

Mafuyu bets a nickel that this be silly scum banter.

[Mafuyu]

To be more specific: jmj has no reason to continue arguing AGAINST SA's attack, as it has been deemed more or less vague and/or weak by enough active players. The fact that he continues the argument suggests either: A. Tunneling between two players or B. Scum gambit.

[Mafuyu]

Well, considering that they comprise 50% of all rolls...

[Mafuyu]

well i played newbie for long time.

can someone explain this :I would think a scum player would be less likely to see the pro-town side of things, yes.

Oh, you'd be surprised.
There are cases where town does not see the pro-town side, for any number of reasons.
There are cases where scum DOES see the pro-town side, significantly because it is their job to read the game to a degree sufficient enough to A. Dispel suspicion and B. Redirect suspicion to town. To not know the town rationale would be to be forced in to playing the ignorant town role, which one can only get away with for so long. To manipulate, you have to know what cards are on the table.

That is to say, 'X is less likely to see pro-town result/interpretation' is null in that diligent people are trying to read however they can, and non-diligent people are scattered in to a myriad number of reasons why they aren't.

[Mafuyu]

This SA wagon looks lovely. Mafuyu wishes to partake if she hasn't done so already from SA's crazy opening play.

Unvote Vote SA

[Mafuyu]

SA has claimed Roleblocker [...] although outing himself at not even L-1 is dumb.

This.

[Mafuyu]

I find it hard to believe andrew is this clueless about the game, even in a new setup, especially not knowing where the wiki is.

Mafuyu's going to go out on a limb here and theorize Mothrax/Alduskkel as part of the scum group. Mafuyu doesn't like how their posts play off one another. In addition, mothrax isn't in a position to be voting people based on perceived skepticism of ineptitude. That is, his argument applies in parallel to his massclaim attempt.

Vote Mothrax

[Mafuyu]

@BlakAdder: The easy interpretation is that they took the safe route. If any of the night-active power roles other than SA-RB existed and succeeded in doing what they were doing, that could not only clear BlakAdder but provide direction for N2. It is safer to cull the claimer and leave the rest of town less knowledgeable than taking the gambit for in the hopes of scoring some other PR.

[Mafuyu]

VLA till the 19th on account of BLARGHEXAMS

[Mafuyu]

See:Sig. =/