Open 245 - Mini Love - Scum win!

[Wisteria]

quadz08 (6): ZeroFang, Tasky, Wisteria, drmyshottyizsik, Nexus
tvellalot (1): don_johnson
Tasky (1):, quadz08

Not voting (3): Mokujin_, WingsOWisdom, tvellalott

10 alive, 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 18th October, 10PM GMT

I am having some trouble with this. Forgive me for making this post a little cluttered.

PS: I think scum has a winning strategy at this point even if quadz flips scum.

Since Tasky is looking at a situation where quadz08 flips scum, which is the best-case scenario right now, I will as well.

In that event, you will have 9 players remaining for Night 2.

Night 2

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Town Lover
Town Lover

Assuming the worst-case scenario for the third cycle where town both mislynches and loses the lover pair, we will have:

Night 3

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

By the start of Day 4, you will have lost another townie, leading us to:

Day 4

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

Townie
Townie
Townie

This would be LyLo.

If this "breaking strategy" involves the mafia goons claiming they are the lover pair on Day 3, the solution would be to bite the bullet, lynch them, and punt the game to LyLo if needed. If they do this on Day 4, yes, I can see how this would lose town the game under the correct circumstances. The way to combat this would be to have the lovers claim on Day 3.

If the "breaking strategy" somehow involves strategical nonaction that puts town in MyLo, the solution is to not lynch at all unless someone is confirmed; however, with the doctor gone, it is impossible to confirm anyone.

Tasky, I now insist that you reveal this supposed breaking strategy in this thread.

I have trouble believing that this setup, already run twice before with town victories, can be broken in scum's favor by Day 2.

Besides, now that you have already mentioned that there

is

a strategy, you have handed scum the advantage because now they will be looking for it, and they are at an information advantage as it is. We need to know this. If you are town, you should have kept your mouth shut.

[Wisteria]

...and I have been made newly aware that Mr.Sandman uses the [area] tag for his vote counts. I think I will go ahead and post this now; I will not have access for the next few hours, and it would not do to keep my reads hidden forever.

As promised:

[quote="Wisteria"]Battousai (now Nexus) is town.
drmyshottyizsik is most likely town.
Mokujin_ is probably town, but this is a weak read.

tvellalott is scum. After my flip, believe me when I say I have a very strong gut read on this one, even if whatever defense comes up sounds reasonable.

If quadz08 flips town, investigate don_johnson and ZeroFang.
If quadz08 flips scum, investigate Tasky.
These are mutually exclusive.[/quote]
Additionally:

[unvote][/unvote]

Do not interpret this as hesitation. In a way it is, but for a different reason: I want Tasky to reveal what is on his mind [i]today[/i], and I would rather not have scum quick hammer their way out of this. [u]Do not vote, even for an L-1 vote, until everyone is satisfied with what Tasky has to say.[/u] Investigate anyone who goes contrary to this condition, please.

[Wisteria]

Apologies for the serial posting. I completely blundered that one.

EBWOP:

...and I have been made newly aware that Mr.Sandman uses the "area" tag for his vote counts. I think I will go ahead and post this now; I will not have access for the next few hours, and it would not do to keep my reads hidden forever.

As promised:

Battousai (now Nexus) is town.
drmyshottyizsik is most likely town.
Mokujin_ is probably town, but this is a weak read.

tvellalott is scum. After my flip, believe me when I say I have a very strong gut read on this one, even if whatever defense comes up sounds reasonable.

If quadz08 flips town, investigate don_johnson and ZeroFang.
If quadz08 flips scum, investigate Tasky.
These are mutually exclusive.

Additionally:

UNVOTE:

Do not interpret this as hesitation. In a way it is, but for a different reason: I want Tasky to reveal what is on his mind

today

, and I would rather not have scum quick hammer their way out of this.

Do not vote, even for an L-1 vote, until everyone is satisfied with what Tasky has to say.

Investigate anyone who goes contrary to this condition, please.

[don_johnson]

i'm all ears. the set-up isn't broken, i think tasky is trying to save his scumpartner.

key for a scum win would be to lynch the wrong lover pair today. which is why i made my earlier suggestion. it doesn't look as though the other pair is suspicious of each other, so i'd say we're right on. but i digress...

[quadz08]

Also, quadz08, looking at you in ISO, I noticed that your sole focus on Day 1 was andrew94. As I understand it, you made this into a policy lynch because you believed that he would be a liability in LyLo. What is interesting to me is you were never able to call andrew94 scum or touch on the possibility that andrew94 was scum; it was almost as though andrew94 was just a lynch candidate rather than a scum candidate. Why is that?

This is essentially correct. Until the end of the day, when it was pretty obvious that he must be scum (i.e., after the doc cc) I didn't really find anybody scummier than anyone else. EVERYBODY was a null-read at that point; I rarely get good reads on D1. And IMHO, lynching someone that highly anti-town is almost better than lynching scum on D1.

All right. I have run through a few possibilities, and I think this is appropriate given a number of things. Of course, if I am about to do something incredibly stupid, I will hear you out in post-game discussion.

I claim lover with quadz08.

You just did something INCREDIBLY STUPID. Now that we're outed, if I'm NOT mislynched today, we're both dead tonight, pretty much for sure. Well done.

However, I do agree with wanting to hear all about this breaking strategy. I find it rather unlikely that it exists, especially after Wisteria's breakdown.

Tasky: Were you being serious in response to shotty's question?

[Tasky]

there is no breaking strategy. That was supposed to be a scum-trap which I learned from a great player.
it was unlucky, Wisteria was the last person I'd have wanted to answer on it. you couldn't know of course, I would have done the same thing as you, but you neutralized my play.
I'm sorry if I created confusion.

[quadz08]

Tasky, please respond to my question.

[Tasky]

Tasky, please respond to my question.

you mean this?
if that's it, well I was serious about wagoning until something happens. something has happened today. today we lynch you, then tomorrow I will bandwagon again until scum slips up again.

[Mr.Sandman]

Prodding Mokujin_ and WingsOWisdom

tvellalot was busy so I'll give him an extra day

[don_johnson]

participation will help. i need to get back to the math here. if the other lover pair is okay not being revealed, lynching outside of quadz/wisteria runs the risk of exposing them. exposing means town loses potential masons for tomorrow. ugh.

[drmyshottyizsik]

grrrrr

[quadz08]

you mean this?
if that's it, well I was serious about wagoning until something happens. something has happened today. today we lynch you, then tomorrow I will bandwagon again until scum slips up again.

Yeah, that's what I was referring to. Do you plan on continuing that strategy the whole game? Simply mindlessly hopping on wagons? Because that's anti-town, at the very best. I like my vote where it is.

[Tasky]

you mean this?
if that's it, well I was serious about wagoning until something happens. something has happened today. today we lynch you, then tomorrow I will bandwagon again until scum slips up again.

Yeah, that's what I was referring to. Do you plan on continuing that strategy the whole game? Simply mindlessly hopping on wagons? Because that's anti-town, at the very best. I like my vote where it is.

lol. you are so scum.
I never said I would

mindlessly

hop on wagons.
aren't you going for the "anti-townish" lynch here instead of looking for real scum?

[quadz08]

No, you did. You said you would probably hop on the largest current wagon. That says "mindless" to me.

And no, I'm not. I said "anti-town at best." Very different than just plain anti-town.

[Tasky]

No, you did. You said you would probably hop on the largest current wagon. That says "mindless" to me.

And no, I'm not. I said "anti-town at best." Very different than just plain anti-town.

hopping on the largest wagon is NOT "mindless" if it's done for a good reason. trust me, it DOES catch scum.
also, "anti-town at best" is also very different from scummy.

[quadz08]

I have yet to see people jumping on the largest wagon for no reason other than its size catch any scum.

Let me fill in what I

thought

was implied: "anti town at best, scummy at worst."

[ZeroFang]

hopping on the largest wagon is NOT "mindless" if it's done for a good reason.

You basically just said mindless wagon hopping isn't mindless if it's not mindless wagon hopping.

[Wisteria]

Unfortunately, I am having access issues again, so I will be mildly flaky for the next couple of days. What I want to know ASAP, though, is this:

there is no breaking strategy. That was supposed to be a scum-trap which I learned from a great player.

Link, now, as well as an explanation why you did not paste this link as evidence as soon as you brought this up.

Additionally:

if the other lover pair is okay not being revealed, lynching outside of quadz/wisteria runs the risk of exposing them. exposing means town loses potential masons for tomorrow. ugh.

This is bothering me. This is the second time you have referred to quadz08 and I as a "mason pair." Why do you sound so certain of our innocence?

[Tasky]

hopping on the largest wagon is NOT "mindless" if it's done for a good reason.

You basically just said mindless wagon hopping isn't mindless if it's not mindless wagon hopping.

yeah. lol.

there is no breaking strategy. That was supposed to be a scum-trap which I learned from a great player.

Link, now, as well as an explanation why you did not paste this link as evidence as soon as you brought this up.

Real Life.

Additionally:

if the other lover pair is okay not being revealed, lynching outside of quadz/wisteria runs the risk of exposing them. exposing means town loses potential masons for tomorrow. ugh.

This is bothering me. This is the second time you have referred to quadz08 and I as a "mason pair." Why do you sound so certain of our innocence?

if we lynch you and you flip scum, the other lover pair will become masons.

[Wisteria]

What kinds of reactions were you expecting, then, Tasky?

if we lynch you and you flip scum, the other lover pair will become masons.

Oh, now that I have reread don_johnson's post, I see that now.

I retract the question. Do not respond to that. At least, not until we flip.

[quadz08]

Here's my thought process: we should search for a goon, NOT a treacherous lover.

If we lynch Wisteria and I today (under the assumption that I'm scum) then you've lost both a townie and a scum-member. Lynch just a scum-member, and your odds are better from here on out.

If we lynch Wisteria and I today (under the assumption that I'm town) then we've lost two townies. That's a LOT in one fell swoop. Either way, it's more productive to search for a goon.

If we don't find a scummy enough candidate, then it would make no sense to lynch someone we don't suspect, so I would be the lynch. However, I think it's more prudent to search for a goon (i.e., someone NOT outed as a lover.)

[Wisteria]

Who do you suggest as the alternative lynch, then? How certain are you of this person flipping mafia goon? What do you think are the consequences if this person flips town? Flips mafia?

[quadz08]

Currently, my suggestion is Tasky. However, I plan on re-reading and ISOing soon. If the person flips town, then my idea didn't work (obviously). If the person flips mafia, then we've lynched a goon.

Obviously, we'd have to find to someone scummy enough that the risk of lynching them is less than (my scumminess - your contributions/opinions).

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote: quadz

main issue here is outing the other lover pair. you just seem to be stalling and the best you have to offer is "don't lynch me, lynch that guy!" i'm not buying it and i feel as though we're in enough of a hole already. if you flip mafia, we'll take care of your buddy tasky then.

[drmyshottyizsik]

@

Mod can I have a VC please?
Thanks