Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[Oso]

Hello Xine, Equinox (hope this game is as enjoyable as the ones I played with you folks before) and to the rest, nice to meet you.

VOTE: cruelty

Because cruelty is just wrong....unless it's cruelty to mimes then I'm all for it.

[Oso]

Special Agent Oso I think it is.

Haven't watched it.

[Oso]

Lol Oso for changing you avatar and yep your right thats exactly the one I meant.
..

Thought it might be, seems a pretty popular image ATM. Don't worry though, it bugs me so I'll be going back to Bug-Eyed Earl shortly.

As to Ice's questions,

Pacific, same as you and Xine.
A hair over 50 games but most of them were on sites other than MS.
It's sporadic. I spend alot of time at the computer though (I work from home) so one post every 48 hours will be the longest I go w/o a post.

As to the votes on me so far? Pretty much RVS.

Zinive - Obvious RVS
Netlava and Llamarble...going to go ahead and lump those together and say attempts to end the RVS. If you put a gun to my head and I had to rank them I'd say netlava comes off slightly worse. Using my odd backhand logic, netlava used a reason, unneeded at this point in the game. Llama simply changed his vote, no reason, to draw fire and see who bit.

[Oso]

Oso, I don't follow your reasoning. No one's putting a gun to your head saying that you have to rank me and llama.

Nope, no one did. I just went ahead and ran the possible questions through my head and pre-empted the "Oso, since you seem to have been the first minor wagon, who on it do you suspect of being scum?"

From my post, I hope it's obvious that I don't suspect anyone who voted me so far of being scum. At least not at the moment. If I ever suspect you, Zinive or Llamarble of being scum, it certainly won't be because of those votes on me on the first page.

To anticipate what I think will be your next question though, "Then why rank them at all?" It was your first game post. No reason whatsoever to give any reason at all (other than maybe a joke) to a vote. A very minor blip on the scumdar but at this point in the game, worth mentioning I think. If nothing else it might have gotten an over-eager scum to come after me for already trying to set up future lynches. Or over-eager town, hard to say but I didn't expect you'd mention something as minor as that. Figured you might sit back as well and see if anyone noticed and ran with it.

[Oso]

So far, Oso gets a quick little wagon, doesn’t seem to particularly notice, until other players bring it up.
...

This is absolutely true, being that it was Day 1 and pretty much still in the RVS, I wasn't going to mention it unless it became a topic of discussion and then only negatively.

None of the three: Zinive, Lllama or Netlava are currently on my scumdar for those votes. The votes themselves are null or slight town.

My only interest in my small wagon was to try and use it as a springboard to start my own scumhunting and see who might have tried to turn one of those voting me into scum based on the votes alone. So far I haven't seen that. Just some minor twitches by players on Llamarble's no reason vote. The negative comments cast at Zinive by Llamamarble are unrelated to his vote on me, as far as I can tell, but rather on Zinive's unvote and failure to vote the player he was casting suspicion on.

The only useful information (if any) I, or anyone, will get off my wagon will be in hindsight.

[Oso]

First off, I think folks may be getting too focused on the rule set rather than the game. I get that many folks /inned without knowing it was being played under BaM.

That said, what folks are saying about about scum using the rules to coast by because there may not be time to focus on many people per day does make sense so going after low post counts (like ICEninja is) makes a certain amount of sense as all a person has to do is post once a game day to avoid mod-kill and that leaves town to have to deal with them.

I can however, see scum use the general perception of the players to try and create an atmosphere of hysteria (or at least amp up the players by constantly reminding them of the rule set) to create a background "We gotta do(lynch) something(somebody)....like now." mentality in the player base.

So far, there is only one person I seen trying to capitalize on the rule set in that manner.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ICEninja

If you ISO him, you will see there is only one post he has made so far (it's ISO-#2/Game Post-#23) where he doesn't make mention to the short amount of time.

His vote on Fernando reeks for that reason. Granted, Fernando hasn't posted but once and that does merit suspicion but not one Day 1. Lurker hunting makes no sense in a normal game Day 1 and makes about as much in a game run under BaM. If he is a true lurker preparing to flake, he'll be mod-killed. If not, it will be obvious he is trying to fly under the radar especially since everyone is already hyped to see low participation as being automatically scummy, he(Fernando) won't be able to do it for long.

Recap: ICEninja has created and will probably continue to feed the impression that the BaM ruleset somehow means this game is basically different than any other Normal Mafia-Mini and is using that impression (as scum) to try and direct pressure that will hopefully lead to lynches on people with low participation.

[Oso]

..
Oso you brought up an interesting point. He really seems now to be emphasize the ruleset.

However we should also take into consideration that our time is rather short and some people still seem to believe that once per day is enough where it is not.

The bold part, I agree with completely.

My objection to what I see ICEninja doing is two fold. First, setting up atmosphere where people are starting to tunnel on deadline and activity. Second, actually making a case that a Day 1 lurker may be scum based on that. Granted, ICEninja did give an appeasement reason as secondary here (bold part):

..
I've got a town read on Llamarble, so I won't be voting him for now. There are 4 players who haven't posted a second post yet, which is absolutely awful. Of the 4 of them,

I feel like Fernando has done the most to try and blend in with and appease town.

In particular, I really don't like the way he seemed to try and ask for permission to make a random vote. Also his friendly demeanor, while not inherently scummy, could be combined with town appeasement to try and sail by unnoticed. After all, my one game as scum, I was trying to be more friendly and agreeable without even realizing it.

But if you read in that same quote, he is picking the one he thinks is the worst of the four who have the least activity.

And in like most of his posts, the earlier part of that post again tries to stress how BaM changes the game in some major way:

..
While I generally ignore most of my gut reads in favor of logical cases that are built around quoting the player and demonstrating why that is playing to a scum win condition,

this game may not allow for that. This is especially true on day 1. I will be playing against my standard idea of what I feel is good play, unfortunately, and be voting a lot on gut reads until we have dead bodies and votes to analyze carefully.

..

Also, in my opinion, a subtle attempt at distancing/excusing himself from being in on the lynch should Fernando go all the way to a lynch. See bold there as well.

I wasn't sure who would do it, but by the time I stopped looking at the thread yesterday evening, I was convinced a person would try and get something going on a low activity player by either using the short deadlines as a primary reason or a variation of that and that person would have the strongest chance in my estimation of being scum.

[Oso]

..
Oso, what are your thoughts on players who have only made a single post so far? What about any players who will have gone another full RL day without making a single post? Also, do you plan on playing the same in this rule set as you would in a more standard rule set?

The low posters, I don't think much (alignment-wise) either way or the other at the moment. I do wish as a player, they would post a bit more often though. As I stated earlier, any true flaker is going to be mod-killed. If starting tomorrow, the low posters still continue to post then that takes it out of AGar's hands and puts it squarely in ours and will have to be dealt with. Today we have enough active people posting that even if a part of the scum has decided to 'lay-low' Day 1 I'm betting we have also have a part that is posting.

That is why your attack on a low activity player at this point in the game is clanging so many bells with me. BaM is tailor made for scum to go after lurkers at any point in the game with impunity, not just after a couple or three days of pattern lurking. Making what are generally easy lynches that much easier, that much earlier in the game.

And yes, I do plan on playing pretty much as I do in a normal ruleset. All BaM is going to change from my POV is that I'm probably going to make several smaller posts as opposed a lesser amount of walls. Which in my case, isn't bad at all.

[Oso]

..
Oso: given the assumption that a lurker will just be mod killed why does that mean that we don’t have to worry about it? What if we lose town to a mod kill, and lynch a fairly active town player too. Mathematically speaking wouldn’t it be nice to lose only one town player

Information basically.

Short Answer: Killing an inactive player that is going to be killed anyway and that we have no hope of getting a replacement for (under BaM) is counter-productive. Even with the possibility of getting two townies killed (one lynched/one Mod-Killed) town is still better off making a lynch of an active player after reasoned and considered discussion in most situations, at least in my opinion.


Longer answer:
Optimally, no-one would be mod-killed because of inactivity. Town would lynch people based on (hopefully) good reasoning and scum would NK based on some sort plan and we wouldn't have to worry about it.

I'll admit that letting the mod kill off players according to the BaM Rule #12 isn't optimal but if we are going to spend time and skull sweat trying to figure out who we think is scum and town, every flip we get through a lynch (whether they flip scum or town) needs to have some sort of game discussion behind it other than "Well, he's going to be mod-killed anyway." No way in hell we are ever going to be able to separate the town and scum players if we do that too often.

And I may not have made myself clear earlier, the case I put forward only applies to Day 1. After Day 1, if someone still posts just enough to avoid the mod-kill then we have to deal with it, we won't have any other choice. No one (including Fernando, the vote ICE made) is in danger of being mod-killed I don't think. Everyone has posted at least once this game day so it's the timing of ICE's targeting low activity players that has alarmed me. Past today (game day), his reasoning will be much more valid as there will be at least an emerging pattern to point to.

If later in the game, we are faced with a choice of not being able to come to a lynch consensus, only then would I consider lynching someone who was about to be mod-killed. But if you do that (even in that situation) it would be almost equivalent to voting a no-lynch and no information would be had as you would just be hanging out to see who else gets killed that night, narrowing down the list of suspects. The idea of cutting your losses to one townie is one worth considering though, I'll give you that.

If it comes to the situation I described above, then I think town is pretty much screwed anyway. I have no data to back this up, just my own opinion, but unless it's for an unavoidable real life crisis that causes the player to flake, I suspect that anyone who does get ganked because of that rule is someone disinterested in the game or their role, both of which in my view, point to non-scum, non-PR roles. In short, VTs. Better to just go ahead and bite the bullet and lynch who you think is scum. Go down swinging if we find ourselves in that situation.

[Oso]

Xine's question got me thinking and I have the time so I'll give two examples where you'd want to do things oppositely(these are hypothetical by the way):

Case #1: Game tomorrow is Mis-Lynch and Lose (or suspected to be as much). If there was a player about to be Mod-Killed because of BaM and it is believed he is flaked town, then by all means. No-Lynch or Lynch him (doesn't matter which) as a bad lynch there loses the game because a bad lynch will cause the game to blow right through MyLo into game over. Say 6 town : 3 scum suspected. Bad lynch=5:3. Mod-Kill=4:3. Night Kill=3:3.

Case #2: MyLo, you believe that you are in it. You have to lynch as unless the flaked player is scum, his mod-kill is going to be the same as a mis-lynch. 5:3 (or 4:2) Bad-lynch makes LyLo but Mod-Kill makes it Scum Win. Have to lynch there, no choice.

Disclaimer to all: This isn't meant to be a game post for discussion really but Xine got me to thinking. Until she asked her question, I personally hadn't considered all the ramifications of a compulsory Mod-Kill mixed in with a Lynch/Nk combo. Just thought I'd go ahead and point it out in case some of the quirks of this mechanic may have passed by others as well. (I haven't actually played a game under the BaM Rules either, just read them passing some time ago).

[Oso]

..
Case #2: MyLo, you believe that you are in it. You have to lynch as unless the flaked player is scum, his mod-kill is going to be the same as a mis-lynch. 5:3 (or 4:2)

Bad-lynch makes LyLo

but Mod-Kill makes it Scum Win. Have to lynch there, no choice.
..

Edit correction. Bold part should read No-Lynch not Bad-Lynch. Sorry.

[Oso]

Spent most of the day when I wasn't working re-reading the thread.

UNVOTE: ICEninja

I was re-reading mainly to get supplementary evidence against him. He might still turn out to be scum, but it won't be for the reason I was pushing. Won't go into huge detail (unless you folks want it) except to say that what I thought was scummy action started to look more and more like a player trying to legitimately get people to post.

Back in a couple of hours (or tomorrow morning) with thoughts and a vote.

[Oso]

VOTE: Llamarble

Here's why. An outright contradiction and some contradictory behavior.

Earlier I said if I ever thought Llama was scum, it wouldn't be because of his vote on me. But his vote on me does highlight one set of contradictions so I have to use it as a starting point.

Post #11: He votes me. The vote itself is not scummy but that makes him number 3 on the wagon (as big at it got).

Post #32:

I also thought that the 3rd vote was scummy

since this is most of the times the point where random voting can turn into a bandwagon. The reasoning given for why also doesn't satisfy me. Oso is talking currently adding pressure now just seems odd.

Sure Oso was talking, but at the time of my post it was all sweet nothings and a random vote.
A few votes hopefully gets people to produce useful game content like examination of the motives of the people of their bandwagon.

Zinive is the third player to go after me. (Opportunism)

He tries to add to the reasoning against me so it looks like he's not just following the most promising lynch (Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this a common scum technique?)
But his added reason seems very weak to me. (running into the "scum say things they don't believe" situation again)
The fact that he doesn't vote me after stating suspicion and adding a reason makes it seem like he wants to lay low and avoid looking opportunistic.
(Scum want to avoid notice while pushing the town toward false lynches; stating suspicion and not voting lies in this vein.)

He(Llamarble) was third on my wagon, as Zinive pointed out, yet somehow Llama thinks that Zinive being Number 3 to simply voice suspicion him is somehow more damning that casting an actual vote in the third spot. He(Llamarble) does give some supporting reasons why Zinive's suspicion might be considered scummier yet he goes and does this:

Post #84

..
I haven't picked up any substantial further nastiness from Zinive's recent posts (though I still haven't heard nearly enough from him), so I'll go ahead and
Unvote; Vote IceNinja
I think but am not certain that this is the

third

vote on Ice.

There is that three again. Before anyone gets the idea I hate the number three, it's not that it is the third vote or suspicion but rather he feels strongly enough to call and vote another player on being the <insert whatever number here> to voice a suspicion yet has no objection to being <insert whatever number here> himself.

Major contradiction in what he(Llamarble) has said when compared to what he's done.

Next.

Post #44

..

The exchange between Shattered and Ice feels a little bit more like artificial distancing to me than legitimate back and forth.

Both have made accusations that seem unlikely to get the other into real trouble while showing some animosity for each other.
If one flips scum I'll be suspicious of the other.

Post 79

..
My take on Oso's case vs Ice:
Supposing Ice is scum, even if the plan Oso described hasn't managed to lynch a lurker,
he has at least found a pretty low-risk vector for contributing and looking pro-town.
On the other hand, it's not false that town should be concerned with lurkers given short days.
Thus the issue from my perspective is more the degree to which Ice relied on the short deadline to produce posts.

While he mentions the short deadlines a lot, he doesn't spend much time actually pressuring lurkers until he votes Fernando.
He also discusses enough other topics that mentioning the deadline doesn't feel like a crutch.

I do still think his interaction with Shattered was strange on both ends.
I'm surprised Ice didn't come down harder against Shattered for some of the more ridiculous things he said.
Ice said the funny sounding "You'd better impress me extremely quick with some very insightful analysis."
But followed up by defending himself against an accusation of "trying to hard to go into analysis" and then leaving Shattered alone afterward.

[Side note:The underlined was the thought that was the tipping point for me deciding that my case against ICEninja was probably a bit far-fetched. Up until I read another person saying it, the little voice in the back of my head saying I'd strung too many improbable things together was being pretty much ignored]

First paragraph, "You could be right, but you could wrong.." basically, but still pushes the possible connection between ICE/SV in the second paragraph with the option of adding my argument at any point when he says this

"....he has at least found a pretty low-risk vector for contributing and looking pro-town.

"

When he says this (Post #100):

@M=W:
Zinive hasn't really jumped on anyone, and Xine hasn't done so to the extent of you and Oso,
but like you and Oso they have mostly been aloof and reasonable.
It's hard to read because you've all acted in a basically pro-town fashion
but in a way that I don't think it would be difficult for a scum to emulate.

Essentially you're all playing pretty well but your playstyles mask alignment easily.
Ice and I sort of "dove into the trenches" earlier with some reachy accusations to get the ball rolling

,
Which provides additional opportunity to read us.

The bold part. That is where I believe the contradictory behavior is. He's voting, pushing a case and even making connections based on person who he implies is town, right along with him.

@Llamarble. Why are you voting and pushing hard on someone who you think is town?

[Oso]

See, I knew that the number three would get the main focus. Would have happened no matter what position was actually used.

Main point of the first half of my votepost on Llama wasn't that the vote/suspicion was the third spot but rather he felt using voting or casting suspicion at at certain point was off enough to add to a case on another player and indicates that player might be scum. Yet he doesn't apply that same standard to himself.

[Oso]

I did read your post, every letter.

It doesn't matter if it was the first or the hammer or any between. That is happened to be mid-wagon is completely irrelevant and coincidental.

You applied a standard to another player you don't apply to yourself. The supporting reasons you give for voting Zinive lost all credibility because you start the case by listing, as your first reason, position=opportunistic when you had already occupied that same position on another player before the accusation and you thought you were in the same position on a player after making the case against Zivine.

That is the contradiction I was showing where what you say vs. what you do doesn't match up. The actual position on the wagon we are using wasn't my choice, it was yours and, ultimately, irrelevant to the point I'm trying to get across.

[Oso]

Quick pop in to say I'm still here. Weekend turned out to be busy.

@ICE. Quick skim of your vote post raised some interesting points. I'll read more in depth later on today.

@Llamarble. "Poorly thought out..."? Granted, that may be true but going the theory you are town for the moment (not to be taken that I am backing off of him), if one person says you are contradicting yourself, that could be poorly thought out. Four people (myself, Xine and ICeninja[Says he doesn't see it early, undewhelming later on in post - 141] and one other who I can't find at the moment, mentioned double standards not always being scummy) means you might actually be doing it. Might want to take a look at it.

[Oso]

[Apoligies for the lack of posts last few days. Busy weekend plus a busy work Monday.]

@ICEninja, haven't looked over your (and now it seems several players) case against Zinive. Will do so and make a post on what I think.

It seems that no one is interested in lynching or even really pressuring Llamarble so I'm thinking I'ma have to back-burner that until some other point. Make no mistake though, call it gut, intuition or just plain stubbornness, I'm convinced he is scum. But getting you folks see that as well might take a while.

[Oso]

Double Post.

Oh, and welcome to the game Antihero, glad to have you.

[Oso]

..
Is it just me, or did Oso post this much earlier already?

This is mildly funny.

He did.

Busy weekend plus a ton of work that had to be done today that I didn't expect. In the process of catching up on both game I am currently playing in. Thank god this one only has a few posts relative to the other one. I'm catching up on this one first.

[Oso]

[Non-game note: Is something wonky with the site? Rereading the last three or so days worth of posts, I could swear it seems likes some of those post are out of order. Like they got shuffled up or something. Anyway.]

Case against Zinive: Most everyone voting for him seems to be mainly because he is extremely wishy-washy, the overall impression is that he using the 'discussion is good, short days are bad' talk to A)Look for a safe vote rather go out on a limb and B)Perhaps drag the day out close to deadline so that if a scum is forced to claim, a PR claim can force either a different quick wagon/lynch or a counter claim and that when he finally voted it was more of an 'appease the players' vote rather than a well thought out, legitimate vote?

There were also a reason or two in addition to, if I recall, but the above stood out to me as the most damning, in my opinion, of the suspicions raised against him. If I misread the suspicions against him, please correct me.

I looked over his posts and I can agree with wishy-washy although I would characterize as more extremely non-committal so the part of the suspicions voiced that he is trying to find a safe place to park his vote carries a lot of weight and makes sense. (The part where he might be intentionally trying to drag out the day though doesn't, it may be just me but that seems a bit too counter-intuitive for scum to be doing so I don't think that part of the suspicions is valid).

Again, looking over his posts, the suspicion that he voted SV to appease those wanting him to place a vote makes a lot of sense as well.

Trouble is, up until I read his response to Antihero's vote post, he was giving me the impression he was unsure and perhaps timid town.

But that post, he's seriously losing it. Specifically the way he goes after Antihero.

Antihero is replacing into a player slot that made a total of 3 posts and none of them (by themselves or taken as a whole) come anywhere close to lynching that player spot today. Antihero has no reason to: (Zinives' Post 173)

..
I believe you simple pile now on me because you are diverting the attention away that cruelty made with a really weak case and word twisting. This makes you look more scummy then SV in my eyes.

Other than people mentioning that he(then Cruelty/now Antihero) needs to post, there is no attention for Antihero to divert.

Short version. I agree with the folks that are voting Zinive. Maybe not for all the reasons but yeah, in his last post he threw himself from town in my mind straight past neutral and into scum. He's cracking under pressure and starting to look like scum failing and trying to divert. His counter-vote of Antihero is what I would class as someone trying to divert attention from himself by trying to make someone else look worse than he does. And failing badly at it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zinive

That's number 5, L-2.

[Oso]

UNVOTE:

I know ICEninja already took Zinive off of L-1 but I dun't like my vote anymore.

Why am I unvoting? D-1, claimed PR. Even though I voted him, my general gameplay policy is a great reluctance to lynch claimed PRs without either some very strong evidence that contradicts the claim or there is some situation in the game where keeping them alive presents more danger than lynching them. Neither condition is true here.

If he is true claiming, he can be a great help to town. Not so much now that he's outted as it would be if he was still under, but still helpful. Leaving him unlynched is the smart play at the moment.

That being said, here are some of the doubts I have.

1)It's a great RC for scum. The results from a successful Jailkeep are ambiguous, difficult enough to figure out properly even if it is a Townie that has the role. If a fake JK claim works, in the hands of scum it is just that much more dangerous.

2)Enough players in the thread found him scummy enough to get him to L-1. Depending on how you think scum might have entered or ignored this wagon, that means that were probably more town players on the wagon that thought he was legitimately a scum candidate than there were scum going for a mis-lynch. Without completely appealing to the authority of the majority, that does hold some amount of weight with me.

Recap. I have doubts about the claim but not enough to override the claim at this point. Giving Zinive a chance to prove the claim in some manner or holding off until it becomes clear he is lying is the smart play in my opinion.

Re-read time again. I'm sure it's abundantly clear who I would like to run up next but even I'll admit that's probably not happening today.

[Oso]

Yeah most of the results from a fake JK claim, from what I've seen, tend to incriminate the claimer rather than the target. It's much harder to 'prove' the claim because of the dual nature of the role. "Did he block the killer? or Protect the target?" sort of dilemma.

I'm waffling on Fernando. I see the points all of those that are voting are making though. Doesn't change the fact that experience and my gut tells me that if we lynch a lurking, low-activity player here on Day 1, we are going to hit a townie who was disinterested in playing the game and flaked.

Another player (Xine I think it was or maybe it was ICE) mentioned something along the lines of cutting losses and the more I think about it, the more that makes sense. The 'damn the lurkers and let's lynch scum instead' attitude I usually use in the early game might actually come back to bite us in the ass later in the game under this rule-set.

Still thinking although I will say that I won't let Day 1 go to a No-lynch if it happens to come down to me voting or going to a no-lynch. We ARE pressed for time at the moment so you will probably have my vote at the end of the day (real life day, not game day).

I am going to use what time I can today, up until going to bed for the night, to rip apart the thread and see if there isn't something in there I missed though.

[Oso]

About to wind it up for the night and I need to post in another game as well. Didn't find anything on a re-read that would do any good right now. At least in my opinion.

I'll hold off adding my vote for the moment since it would be the hammer (and I suggest that anyone who hasn't voted Fernando do the same) but for my part, if Fernando still hasn't claimed or posted any sort of defense by this time tomorrow, I'll go ahead and drop my vote.

[Oso]

As promised...

VOTE: FeRnAnDo

[Oso]

Man, why do interesting things always seem to happen in games on Sunday.

Have to throw in with Me=Weird here. Don't want to get in a what I think the set-up might be discussion, when I don't have time to sit and think on it properly but M=W has an excellent point. ICEninja blew straight through any other killing roles right to vig.

Short on time and I wanted to re-read after the night-flips before getting into this day but that is glaring enough for a vote. His(ICEninja's) post needs some explanation.

VOTE: ICENinja

[Oso]

I'm not apathetic Just spent the day with friends and family and this game was very much on my mind.

Composing now. I'ma hand you folks two scum. On a platter no less. Maybe take a shot at a third and yes Llama, you are still on that list but congratulations, you are distant third and fading fast but enough doubt remains in my mind about you I'm going to purge it all in one post.

By the way, have I mentioned how much I love playing the game of Mafia. (<-Figured I throw that out to the

town

folks (hint ICE isn't one of them) who are feeling a bit down about the PR bloodbath.....this is where the game gets FUN )

[Oso]

Two posts coming (I'm going to split them because I need to check something on my second case before before I pull a real boner).

My vote remains on ICEninja.

First off Oso's Post #58- Summarized, this is my ICEninja vote of yesterday. Basically, I accuse him of setting an atmosphere where its urgent that a lynch take place and that I can see scum using it to go after low activity players. And that is exactly what I see happening because at that point his vote is on, you guessed it,

Fernando

.

He answers in Post #63 - Summarized, he answers my vote with some decent reasoning but there is still the underlying 'this isn't a normal mini-normal' theme. And he also says:

..That being said, I find Oso fairly town for his observation.

Of course he finds me town for my observation, I just hit the nail right on the head.

At the end of that post, he asks me some questions that do get me seriously thinking about how BaM might change the normal lynch/NK dynamic if you have to throw in even a single Mod-Kill because of the ruleset.

Then Xine said this in Post #77

..
Oso: given the assumption that a lurker will just be mod killed why does that mean that we don’t have to worry about it? What if we lose town to a mod kill, and lynch a fairly active town player too. Mathematically speaking wouldn’t it be nice to lose only one town player

That promted me to make this This Post and then This Post - Summarized, the first give my normal game reaction to lynches. They are basically useless unless preceded by a fair amount of good discussion. The second shows, quite clearly I think, how I am starting to actually process how this game might be different than a normal non-BaM game.

The above is two-fold. Why I went ahead and hammered Fernando and to show that my initial read of ICEninja is the one I should have stayed with. I never should have unvoted him. He posed just the right questions to get me thinking that what I accused of him of doing scummily, might very well be the way to go this game. He played me like a cheap guitar on that one and I'm not sure whether to be pissed or to congratulate him.


Then this today:

..
At a quick glance, which is all I care to give this game anymore, Oso looks pretty opportunistic.

He voted Fernando without really believing in it just to end the day, and gave himself the option to deny having really wanted to lynch Fernando, which is great for scum in this situation. This theory is augmented by how much he moved his vote around, trying to find a safe spot for it.

No, I didn't believe Fernando was scum. I believe I made that clear when I stated my intention to hammer here:

..I'm waffling on Fernando. I see the points all of those that are voting are making though. Doesn't change the fact that experience and my gut tells me that if we lynch a lurking, low-activity player here on Day 1, we are going to hit a townie who was disinterested in playing the game and flaked.
[snip]
Still thinking although I will say that I won't let Day 1 go to a No-lynch if it happens to come down to me voting or going to a no-lynch. We ARE pressed for time at the moment so you will probably have my vote at the end of the day (real life day, not game day).
..

That wasn't me trying to squirm my way out the responsibility for hammering, that was me acknowledging the fact that Fernando was probably town but I was going to hammer anyway if he didn't make an appearance. We were at deadline and the idea I had formed earlier during the day, based on some of the questions that had been directed at me, of cutting townie losses might be the way to go was what I was operating under. I never had any intention of trying to shift the responsibility for my vote of Fernando to any other reason other than I thought it was the best play at the time.

As to moving my vote around trying to find a safe one, that just doesn't bear scrutiny. I had my vote "safe" on another player:Llamarble. No way in hell he was going to be lynched yesterday and if I wanted to be off the 'probably lurking townie' lynch, it would have stayed there. SV (here) states his intention to hammer so there was no need for me to do it if I was simply looking to avoid responsibility for the lynch. I stated when I would cast my vote and under what conditions, and I did just that.

Don't be fooled by the discouraged townie act. He's laughing his ass off right now. Real stroke of luck for scum: Dead Cop. Add in the outted and now dead JK and the only person who really seriously questioned him yesterday (beside myself) dead(SV). He is loving this game as it stands now.

[Oso]

Second post won't be coming. What I thought as as a second obvious scum may not be that at all. Got excited I might have caught two for one, need to think on it some.

[Oso]

Damn, I forgot that I had moved off Llamarble to Zinive and then unvoted Zinive. I know how that looks admitting to that but there it is.

The rest still stands though. All up to the part about having my votes safed. It wasn't on anyone at the time I switched to Fernando but the reasoning still stands. SV had expressed his willingness to hammer as well.

[Oso]

Welcome Netopolis, glad to have you.

..
What? Maybe I'm just town, and genuinely feel how I say I feel and you recognized that. I'm terrible at scum, or at least I was the game I played it.

You're giving me way too much credit for something I'm probably not capable of.

Most of your case against me is "Oh wait so you WERE scummy for the reasons I said yesterday then decided that they weren't scum tells."

And yes, I was referring to your hop from Llama to Zinive to Fernando. For the most part, scum's goal isn't to be off the wagon, it is generally more to make a mislynch happen. You misinterpreted what I meant by safe.

..

First bold, not buying it. I don't trust anything that smells of <He/I/They> are just too unintelligent to think of something, especially from the person I just accused of doing it.

Second part still fails, SV's willingness to hammer means the lynch is going to happen. The safest thing to do in that case, from a scum perspective, is to let him do it. Scum knew SV wasn't in their group.

..
241: For all that you go on about ICE obsessing about the deadlines, and voting the lurker, that didn't seem to stop you from voting fernando, who flaked. I know you said that you would, but I don't see why you hammered someone you thought was town when someone else expressed willingness to hammer.

Out of curiosity, who else did you think you'd caught as scum?

..

(I'll answer the bold quote along with the next quote) Basically, because of just that, I said I would and fobbing off not doing what I said I would onto someone else simply to try an avoid responsibility for something would just be wrong (in or out of a game). I gave a time I would I would cast my vote if Fernando hadn't shown and I did that. As to hammering someone I figured was town, I covered that already but I'll hit it again. From some of the discussion yesterday, I came to the decision in my own mind that if it came down to having no clear lynch and a lurker was on the block, then I would cast my vote so that we could cut our losses. I think it was Netlava who mentioned (before he replaced out) that Fernando logged after he was lynched so it seems my decision in his case was wrong. He might have come back in but at the time of my vote, he seemed like a good candidate for Mod-Kill at the end of today and if that happened we'd be looking at 2 possible Mod-Kill candidates right now instead of one.

..

Second post won't be coming. What I thought as as a second obvious scum may not be that at all. Got excited I might have caught two for one, need to think on it some.

Well, then, please present the thought process that you had at the time.

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

..
Ice is most likely town. This vote is fail, as is Oso's. M=W seems to actually believe he caught a scum slip;

Oso doesn't, he's faking it.

Reasons please. I can't defend myself without actually knowing why you think that.

Also at Antihero, since when do we use flavor in a mini-normal to

confirm

roles.

[Oso]

@Oso: Reading is good.

Thank you.

[Oso]

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

Why not now, before you forget?

Thought process short version then. Something I thought initially pointed to a player being scum turned out not to be what I thought it was. The opposite in fact. I caught it when I was doing the post for my case against ICE. That is why I put the disclaimer at the top of the post. I didn't make the second post (obviously).

Those who have voiced concerns that my Post 241 doesn't makes a lot of sense or flow very well, that is why. Almost half of that post was yarded out by me but I still think it got the general point across I was trying to make.

[Oso]

Busy day yesterday and some good news at the end of it so :

@AGar: I will be replacing out, if possible. (even if it is not this will be last game post) PM to follow explaining why.

Apologies to AGar and the players here for having to do this particularly at this point in the game. I was having loads of fun with it too.

[Oso]

I'm still here for a bit so short version at Equinox since I am having trouble not telling this to anyone who will listen.

The Ex-Mrs. Oso is thinking she no longer want's to be an "Ex", something I have been working on since roughly 5 minutes after the divorce process started. So going to see if there is something still there to build on. As much as I like playing mafia, I have to say it didn't even make the first cut when it came to freeing up spare time.

[Oso]

Forgot to add the half dozen or smileys that should go with that at various points



and the one that probably best describes the news when we talked last night as I never did expect it to happen.

[Oso]

Good job Equinox and Me=Weird.

Scum QT

I was keeping my eye on the game as far as I was able. Mildly surprised that it ended today but Equinox and Me=Weird really did the right thing I think, killing Antihero. I figured that Me=Weird was pretty good as the vote focus on ICEninja was on my #2 sheep vote rather than his initial vote. I think he got some backhand town points there when me/chesskid flipped scum. When I replaced out though, I gave Equinox about a 60/40 chance of being lynched today with the odds in her favor.

I'll try and catch up the parts I missed as there are some comments I'd like to make about the game before I left but most of my spare time at the moment is in the middle of the night and it's really easy to choose sleep over making/reading posts.

Disclaimer: Had I known for sure I was the lynch for day 2, I'd not have replaced out. I was honestly surprised that chesskid was lynched. I didn't figure that slot was in THAT bad of shape. It was in trouble for sure but not unrecoverable in my opinion.

[Oso]

..
My question to the scumteam - why not kill ICEninja? I dunno, I felt he was more of a threat than even Zinive as the JK, but that was just me.

Saw this real quick. My short answer. Risk management. ICEninja was, for me, fairly easy to read and, when compared to Llamarble, easier to predict. I've always had a policy, as scum, to kill off claimed PRs as quickly as possible. I also laid out somewhat, in the scum QT, how I think killing a claimed PR can help find other PRs. Although you do run the risk of losing one of your own when you do that.

I'll post the claim I had cobbled together later on today, AGar. I think it could have saved the slot but it was iffy. Despite what I said in my last post, my sheeping of Me=Weird was pretty damaging for the slot. The main point of the claim was not to keep it from getting lynched but rather to get a mis-lynch on either ICEninja or Antihero. Without the mod-kill of Per, the slot would have definitely been swinging Day 3 even had I pulled it off.

[Oso]

EBWOP:Llamarble should be Zinive.

[Oso]

@AGar

Basically, I was going to claim Gunsmith with a positive on Antihero. But I wasn't going to initially push for his lynch out of hand. That was the backpedal from 2 scum to 1 scum.

The whole premise was constructed around players who had too much information (or that is how I was going to sell it anyway). ICEninja's was scummy knowledge, Antihero's was town knowledge. Despite what folks may say about my sheep vote of M=W, M=W hit it right on the head (even though he was scum) when ICEninja went straight to Vigilante past all other possibilities. The test I used was this: Had I been town in this game, ICEninja would have gotten my vote simply based on the strength of his opening post day 2 and the "phony" (I know, as scum, it wasn't phony but would have belived it was had I been town) demoralization he was showing. It ranks right up there, in my opinion, with expressing (over)disappointment over a PR NK or congratulating the Doc on a successful save. The one side effect that it did have was that it confirmed Netlava/Netoplis as town (remember, I'm pulling myself out of scum's head and going back into town for this). No way his(Netlava's) reaction was faked and it hung a "TOWNIE" sign on that slot permanently.

So, ICEninja is scum. Antihero is town. Why? My fake investigation and he has a gun. He's the Vig (I know he isn't now, but I had a decent feeling he might have been despite being a replacement. We did have one PR flake so for this game, having a second Town PR replaced didn't seem a stretch). Hence the back off from two scum on a platter to one. I don't want to out the Vig. Timing would have been fairly critical because in order to sell this (at least in my opinion) my claim had to be VERY reluctant. I had to not only wait for L-1 but also get a person who said they were willing to drop the hammer. Then I could 'out' myself as the Gunsmith and Anti as the Vig and have a decent chance (I think) of being belived as the gunsmith. Even though Llama turned out to be the Vig, had Anti or Llama either one said my deductions were wrong, I think I could sold the 'not wanting to out the vig' thinking long enough to get the positive gun on Antihero explored. Perhaps to lynch. Had he been the Vig, Anti would have been in a minor problem of thinking me scum but having to decide if I figured out he was the Vig from my Night Result and then looking at the thread OR constructing a fake-claim by first figuring out his role from the thread.

From a town standpoint, again in my opinion, the ONLY reason not to go after ICEninja after his first Day 2 post is because you are looking for a partner (yes partner) bussing a mate that just made a big mistake, especially if you are the Vig and plan on shooting the obvscum with too much knowledge tonight.

That was the bare bones of it anyway. I think I could have made it work but like any lie, it had a decent chance of not doing what I wanted. But I would have enjoyed trying it.

The nice thing about it, again in my opinion, if I was believed, then either ICEninja or Antihero were getting lynched instead of me. ICEninja, if Antihero was the Vig. Antihero, if he wasn't. The only roadblock was selling my fake claim just long enough to get to the end of the day. Had Paruda not been on the mod-kill block, I would still have been swinging after an Antihero flip. ICEninja, not so much. Had I tagged Anti correctly as the Vig, I could have gave a false negative on Netopolis , or better yet, claim being blocked (to show town some of the scum power we didn't have) and stood a poor to fair (again, depending on how the day ended) chance of having it belived for one more day even with a Town ICEninja flip.

(Taking a break today so I'll be posting again later, I have some things I want to say and don't want to be overly harsh doing so but I want to say them.)

[Oso]

First off.

Thanks AGar, for taking the time to setup and run the game. I was having fun playing in it and the BaM ruleset wasn't detracting from it at all. Not a slam on you, AGar, but I doubt I will be playing in a BaM ruleset again. You did do a good job of getting replacements despite the ruleset though so you'd probably be the only Mod whose BaM game I would consider playing in again. Rules are rules but I am gratified that you voluntarily went outside the rigid interpretation of them where it was possible for you to do so.

Me=Wierd and Equinox. I'd team up with either of you again and hope that feeling is returned. As to my replacing out, I could have done that better. Personal considerations aside, when I felt the need to pretty much cut all ties to MafiaScum (and other online commitments I had) in order to concentrate on thing in other areas, this is one I should have held on to. The Mod commitment I had wasn't a big deal (I was still pretty far down the queue) and the other was a Large Theme in Day 1 so wasn't a big deal there either. But in my excitement over some good news in my personal life, work ramping for the holidays and the holidays themselves, I think I cut back too severely and this game was one I shouldn't have bushed out on. I could have made time for this. You guys (and AGar and the rest of the players) have my apologies.

To the rest of the players, I had fun playing with you. Although when I come back to playing, I suspect it will take a lot of convincing towards Xine that I'm not scum should we be in a game together again. I've played 2 consecutive games with her and been scum in both of them.

Meta Alert:

..

I don't see how town would be having loads of fun with this game considering what has happened so far. I believe his reasons for replacing out, but I really think this guy is scum.

Deadline is in 2 days, let's not bother with a replacement. I don't even think there's much need of a claim, due to how many dead town PRs there already are. I've been suspicious of Oso from the get go of this day, and all the points made against him have been increasingly convincing.

Right on the scum part, obviously, wrong in one of your reasons (more than one actually but I'll get into that later). Playing Mafia is FUN Winning is generally more fun than losing but it's all good. Win, lose, draw doesn't matter (Reminds me of Mr. Miyagi in the Karate Kid - "Win, lose, no matter. Make good fight. Earn respect."). I still have a blast. If you get confronted with this same situation where I'm concerned (hopefully it won't happen again) using the fact I have said I am 'having loads of fun' to make an alignment call will probably end up biting you in the ass.

As did me going after ICEninja in the first place on Day 2. Another apology is due to everyone there as well most especially to AGar, Me=Weird and Equinox. Even though I was trying to get a townie lynched when ICEninja said this:

Well, wow.

I really just don't even want to play this game anymore

.

To whoever the vig is, sure I don't mind Shattered dying on the account that he was an ass, but did you even look at the vote count? He was one of the few people NOT on the mislynch wagon. Terrible shot choice.

But whatever. I really just don't even care at all at this point.

I voted, not playing to scum's wincon, but rather to get him lynched as quickly as possible (by scum) using his defeatism as the primary reason to do so. He managed to hit on only one of three areas that make mafia NOT FUN for me to play. Those being a Player who is so spastic of a VI that I want to lynch him just to shut him up, but can't because he's a Town VI and not a Scum VI, lethargic town and a player who infects other players with an 'I no longer care' attitude that leads to a lethargic town. This alignment null also. Just my bad luck that it happened in this case when I was scum. I'd have pushed just as hard for it had I been town (unfortunately, to the exclusion of my wincon there as well. Something I need to work on).

Town didn't lose here:

FeRnAnDo, Town Cop - Lynched, Day 1
Zinive, Town Jailkeeper - Killed, Night 1

Shattered Viewpoint, Vanilla Townie - Killed, Night 1
Chesskid3 Oso, Mafia Goon - Lynched, Day 2

PerArdua, Vanilla Townie Neutral Survivor - Modkilled, Day 2 for Violating Rule 12

Or for the the BaM ruleset.

Town lost the second you(ICEninja) admitted defeat. With all that had gone wrong for town in this game, that was the tipping point. Up until that post, and the attitude you carried on after that post to an extent, town still had a chance. A slim one to be sure but still a chance. When 1 of the town's major players that had been strong up to that point, tanks like that, it's almost an unrecoverable situation for town especially since the one person I could see (Antihero) who might have been able to pull you back from that died during the night. That is why I fully support M=W and Equinox's choice for the Night 2 kill. It got rid of the only support town might have had for a comeback.

My apologies if that sounds too harsh. I did my best to tone it down from what I've wanted to say to you since that post. I almost wished I was town for this game so I could have taken a (better) shot at trying to shock you out of your funk.

That being said, I do look forward to playing with each and every one of you again at some point

[Oso]

..
How does one play one shot vig well?
Should the shot actually be saved for later on or used early?
..

I've never played a Vig so this is just what I've heard here and there. Normal multi-shot vig: VIs, flakes and lurkers who you think are scum in addition to anyone you think is obvscum.

One shot: The person (alignment ultimately doesn't matter here) who would cause the most confusion in LyLo if you can't bring yourself to shoot a scum read you aren't sure of. So I guess that would mean hold off shooting until later. In this game: Paruda.

Under BaM, if I were a Vig (one-shot or unlimited) I think I'd push to discourage lynching lurkers and potential mod-kill candidates and limit myself to shooting them provided it didn't hose up town and unless I got a really strong scum vibe, I'd stay away from active players. Doing that under these conditions would probably put a neon sign on your back that you were the vig. "I'm against lynching lurkers/flakes" and then they start showing up as second kills is pretty definitive to a scum team I would think.

[Oso]

..
I was just so pissed off at Fernando for flaking on us, PerArdua for flaking on us, and for the mod to be using a rule set that doesn't deal with flakers very well. We were just stuck in a situation where town players were not playing and badly hurting town, and no the game is not fun when people are doing that.
..
You won't find me defeated in the face of long odds. I've pulled through before and I'm going to do it again.
..

Agree with the first, glad to hear it on the second.

As I said before, this isn't a slam of AGar as I think he bent over backwards to make the game go despite the ruleset but I hadn't played under BaM before and hadn't really thought through the ramifications but BaM goes into my pile of rules that I don't really want to play under again. Despite the win and the hammering I did on you(ICEninja) in my last post, the win/loss of this game had less to do with actual game play than with players who didn't even attempt to play, namely Paruda's and Fernando's slots. All the other slots that left got replaced. If I were town, I wouldn't even have had a real big problem with Llamarble's shot choice for Night 1 because at least he was present and participating.

As far as I can tell, and I don't know if it is particular to BaM in general or just this game, the winners are the team with least flakers. It was good that I finally got to play under this ruleset though. If you had a group of people who you knew were going to participate from beginning to end (which leaves me out as I replaced), then the short deadlines/mod-kills wouldn't be a problem. But for the normal run-of-the-players that /in for minis, I think BaM is tailor made for a short game where the winner is determined more by those who decide not to participate rather than the play of those who do. It does take a bit of the sting out of losing I would think but it also took a lot of the fun out of starting out on the team that won. "Deer in the headlights..." is the term that came to my mind when Fernando flipped cop although I didn't say that to anyone. And that was reinforced by Netlava's leaving and the general demoralization that came with lynching the cop because even if you suppose all three scum(three being the normal guess for a mini-normal) were on the wagon (we weren't, Equinox was off) that left 4 townies on the wagon. Probably all of the town realized that the town, rather than scum, had lynched the cop.

Which was exactly the wrong way to think. Town had lynched a player that was an excellent candidate for mod-kill at the end of Day 2 and

THAT WAS ALL

. That he happened to be the cop was Fernando's fault, not the fault of any other players in the game, including AGar. The fact that the cop just got stretched had an effect way out of proportion to the actual damage done.