Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[ICEninja]

Hello all. Special nods to Equinox and cruelty, whom I have played with before.

I have to say, days are frighteningly short in this game for some reason. I may not be able to give my full level of analysis that I provide in most of my games, simply because there won't be enough time to do so. I'll do the best I can with what I get.

I like to start games off by asking a few questions.
1) What is your timezone? This can be important if you live overseas and we're waiting for a post from you.
2) What is your mafia experience, here and elsewhere?
3) How frequently do you expect to be able to post? This is exceptionally important this game.

-I live in the PDT timezone. Expect me to post occasionally before class and sporadically from the afternoon to evening. Posting is reduced on Fridays and Sundays, which may be significant for this game's short days. I'll do my best.
-I have a growing number of MS games under my belt, in the low double digits now. I also have a decent amount of party based mafia experience prior to my joining here.
-I tend to post. A lot. And long ones. Expect to do a decent amount of reading on my account. If this is a problem, you should say something now. Also, as a rule of thumb, I dislike the RVS and do my best to get the ball rolling quickly. This is extra important with short days.

Llama, is there any good reason that you've switched your votes so early? What did you feel like you would accomplish by unvoting a random vote to only place another vote without any comment?

He seems kind of antsy.

Really? I haven't seen anything that even remotely resembles antsy. I've gotten a friendly and polite vibe from him, so I feel your random vote is especially bad.

Equinox's is dead on, though.

[ICEninja]

I live in the PST time zone (is that what you meant by PDT?)

No. We are in daylight savings time, so therefore our timezone is currently called PDT. After the first Sunday of November, it will be called PST. D = daylight, S = standard.

this seems like a set up for future excuses, and strikes me as scummy.

If you read the rules, game days last only 7 RL days. Most games have 3 week deadlines, which is what I am used to. Being that each game day will be so short, we'll have dramatically reduced content to work off of. Therefore I'll have a lot less to analyze, and probably won't be able to present the level of analysis that I would be personally satisfied with in a normal game.

I hope you don't take this as an excuse. Had I understood what BaM ruleset meant, I probably would have waited for this game to go by before my /in. I suspect this is why the game took ages to fill.

what strikes me as even more scummy is Llamarble's opportunistic third vote on Oso

This I agree with fully.

Xine, quick question. Are you male or female? In my experience not everyone with a female avatar actually is, and your name seems somewhat gender neutral.

[ICEninja]

are you male or female?

It is listed under my join date.

Do you really believe a scum would think making a third vote on someone this early could lead to a lynch?
That seems extremely dubious to me, and making a statement you don't believe in is scummy.

Maybe, maybe not. I've seen people put someone at L-1 during RVS without even realizing it was L-1, and get attacked for it. Quiet, reasonless unvoting and revoting like yours is generally the cause of such things. While I haven't been in any games where this has happened, I have seen people hammered in the first 4 pages without the final voter even realizing until it's too late. Presenting reasoning for voting, such as what Xine did to you, generates good discussion. Quietly placing your vote on someone just for the sake of forming a bandwagon very rarely helps anyone, and just tends to make players uncomfortable. It can be that scum will get more uncomfortable under pressure, but in my experience that is only the case when there is actually a valid case against them. No good scum is going to give off a real reaction here just because people are bandwagoning, and poor players can pile up excess pressure.

Pressure comes from bandwagons so I put my vote on one and then moved it when a bigger one presented itself.
That Netlava provided a reason for his vote also influenced me, since votes + a reason = more pressure and is more likely to produce discussion.

That's funny, you placed a vote without any explanation whatsoever. I agree that it could generate discussion, but simply placing a vote for the purpose of placing a vote isn't helpful.

I agree to some extent with what Oso said about the votes, but I don't feel like a reason for voting is ever unneeded at any point in the game. Even in the RVS, there are reasons to suspect and vote people.

I apologize if our avatars are similarly colored, but I don't feel they look particularly alike. It isn't as bad as having multiple anime avatars in the same game. That is the worst to me.

[ICEninja]

Ice, shorter days do not necessarily mean less content.

Really? Assuming that most normal game days run most of their duration and people's posting habits don't change based on ruleset, we'll have 1/3rd of the content that we have on 3 week deadlines. I'm assuming people will post slightly more, and I realize that not all games run to their deadline, so I'm inclined to believe it is more likely going to be about half the content. Several people are saying they'll post about once an RL day.

You realize this is significant, don't you? That means about 6 posts per game day. My cases frequently involve evidence spread over many pages, and I'll simply have less to work with. A lot of people vote based on gut reads, but you'll find that I generally don't vote unless I have a good logical reason to do so. With fewer posts to analyze, I'll have less to work with.

Your excuse is pointless, not to mention invalid.

Oh so it's an excuse now? And also invalid? If it is invalid, then you should be able to prove that BaM ruleset games have as much content to make cases in than more standard rulesets, yes?

Oso, I don't follow your reasoning. No one's putting a gun to your head saying that you have to rank me and llama.

Where did this come from? You seem to have taken his colorful analogy way too seriously. Since when is it confusing to list which suspicious player looks slightly more suspicious?

Seriously, i don't understand PDT, PST or pacific.

My apologies, I usually specify that PDT is (I believe) GMT -7.

I'd like to point out that a decent number of people are talking about posting once per day, or slightly more than once per day. I hope everyone realizes that we're only going to be getting 6 or so posts per game day out of you if you do that, and each V/LA is extremely significant. Everyone needs to do their best to comment and post in this game as much as possible. Even minor contributions such as interesting things to note, supplementary points for cases, and questions.

Mod, I would hazard a suggestion that when you start a game off with this ruleset that you make it clear that days are so short. I seem to recall you saying something about this game using the BaM ruleset in the queue, but that previously meant nothing to me.

[ICEninja]

Oso, that is the kind of avatar that gives nightmares. Jeez.

I liked Llama's vote a lot. I don't feel like Oso has done anything suspicious or confusing, though I suppose I understand where the confusion came from. Any attempt at bandwagoning at this stage probably means the person wants to generate discussion, but scum goals can very easily be accomplished in this stage of the game, especially under the guise of trying to do the "most town" thing. Don't mistake that with the "too townie" argument, because throwing down votes that don't really make sense (Zinive's didn't really make much sense to me) makes it feel like he just wanted to advance the largest bandwagon.

As I've stated before, simply voting for the sake of voting doesn't actually stimulate discussion, except in the case of making people suspicious of you. If you intentionally did something scummy in order to get us out of the RVS, that is anti-town because it distracts from scum hunting.

Fernando, realize that "at least one post per day" is not often at all in this rule set. It is one thing if you're consistently putting out solid posts with good analysis every day, but otherwise you're not going to contribute enough for people to get a solid read on you.

I definitely feel like this is a little weird:

are we still on RVS? i think so. then i'll VOTE: Netlava, for making 4 posts in a row with that scary avatar.

He asks this question to hedge his move. He does this in order to give himself a back door just in case what he did ended up being scummy. Now people can't come in saying "RVS is over why did you make a dumb vote?", and I don't think hedging your actions is very town.

M=W hasn't done anything to contribute to this game at all save his random vote. Granted his signature states that he isn't going to be posting on Tuesdays, it seems like he should at least post Monday night if that is the case.

PerArdua likewise has only given us a single post to work with. While it contains more than M=W's, there was no actual comments on the game itself; only an avatar related comment and answering my questions.

I'm better than all of you, and the sooner you realize that and treat me as such, the easier this game will be.

So your 6ish posts per game day are really going to be good enough to be better than all of us? So far you're one of our weakest players. You haven't done anything constructive yet except be irritating.

I refuse to participate in Random Voting, so let me know when you're done with that.

I haven't participated in that all game, and instead have jumped straight in to analyzing player moves and motives. If you're so great at this game, you'd be doing that yourself. Instead you take the lazy rout and demand that others do it? Definitely not a good start at all. You'd better impress me extremely quick with some very insightful analysis.

I'm a bit interested by Xine's most recent post. All she did was tell us about several of the things that have happened. Why bother to make a post with a recap? Shouldn't you analyze the events that happen and instead give us some insight as to what you think about it? Perhaps call someone out as suspicious, or ask some questions?

I've seen scum slide through the day relatively unnoticed by virtue of posting and talking about what has happened without giving much in the way of actual opinions.

[ICEninja]

My main objection here is that while I could see someone describing my overall posting style as "antsy," saying that every single post I've made is "antsy" feels like slightly inaccurate rhetoric.

While I agree that your posts can't really be described as "antsy", your original vote against Oso stated that his posts seem "antsy". Yet I've not seen anything that even comes remotely close.

I also can't be arsed to google it.

perhaps you could use this nifty little website called Google.

I'm an insufferable asshole.

Yeah.

Shattered, I'm not being rude. You simply stated in the same post "I'm better than all of you" and "I'm not going to participate for now". What was I supposed to do, say, "OK take your time princess"? And you were indeed lurking up until this afternoon, so Net's point isn't invalid, because he is referring to a situation that was true at the time.

If you think it is scummy to start trying to get activity when, judging by current post rates, we aren't going to fill up a 10th page before deadline then you are insane. I'm simply doing the best analysis I can considering what content we have. Once we have more and better content to analyze, I will re-analyze the situation and hopefully come up with a good lynch candidate.

Llama, I'm sorry if I wasn't particularly clear in my post.

Could you clarify which of my votes you liked?

Your vote against Zinive was pretty good considering what information we have so far.

When you say "Zinive's didn't really make sense to me," are you talking about his expression of suspicion? He didn't actually vote me.

I wasn't referring to his vote or suspicion towards you. It was actually an error, I meant to say his unvote (of Oso). I don't understand why Zinive unvoted Oso without voting for anyone else.

[ICEninja]

i generally think that scumlists are anti-town, to make one on page three borders on ludicrous.

While I would normally agree with you on both counts, I believe he has done this out of necessity. As Llama said, there are a number of players simply waiting for something to happen. If everyone just waits for someone to magically screw up and then someone else to make a solid case out of it, then we'll find ourselves a day before deadline with nothing but random votes to lynch off of.

While I generally ignore most of my gut reads in favor of logical cases that are built around quoting the player and demonstrating why that is playing to a scum win condition, this game may not allow for that. This is especially true on day 1. I will be playing against my standard idea of what I feel is good play, unfortunately, and be voting a lot on gut reads until we have dead bodies and votes to analyze carefully.

I've got a town read on Llamarble, so I won't be voting him for now. There are 4 players who haven't posted a second post yet, which is absolutely awful. Of the 4 of them, I feel like Fernando has done the most to try and blend in with and appease town. In particular, I really don't like the way he seemed to try and ask for permission to make a random vote. Also his friendly demeanor, while not inherently scummy, could be combined with town appeasement to try and sail by unnoticed. After all, my one game as scum, I was trying to be more friendly and agreeable without even realizing it.

Vote Fernando

.

[ICEninja]

ICEninja has created and will probably continue to feed the impression that the BaM ruleset somehow means this game is basically different than any other Normal Mafia-Mini and is using that impression (as scum) to try and direct pressure that will hopefully lead to lynches on people with low participation.

If you think I'm trying to actually have players lynched based on lurking then you're seriously misunderstanding my intentions. I don't lurker hunt with the intent of lynching lurkers. You seem to be trying to imply that this game will run at the same normal pace of most mini normals. The truth is, we have 4 players who have only made a single post so far in the game. This is a full 1/3rd of our players who are simply not playing. This is roughly equivalent to 1/3rd of the players going for about 5 days in a standard mini normal having made only a single post each. Is that in any way acceptable?

I am not trying to push a lynch right now, we still have time. However, I demand that every player post enough for us to get reads on them or else we won't have enough information to make the correct lynch.

Also, in my opinion, a subtle attempt at distancing/excusing himself from being in on the lynch should Fernando go all the way to a lynch. See bold there as well.

This would be the same regardless of who I would be voting. We obviously don't have enough on any player to actually lynch them, but if the votes stay off the quiet players, what incentive do they have to talk?

That being said, I find Oso fairly town for his observation.

Oso, what are your thoughts on players who have only made a single post so far? What about any players who will have gone another full RL day without making a single post? Also, do you plan on playing the same in this rule set as you would in a more standard rule set?

[ICEninja]

It's suspicous because he joined a forming wagon too quickly, and yet not a big case because since zinive's started he has played 8-9 mafia games i don't believe he would make such a newbish move like joining a wagon on page 2 expecting 4 more votes. clear?

You think he made that vote with the intent of lynching?

Your posting is getting better. I'll

unvote

for the time being.
I liked M=W's post.
Equinox and Per seriously need to get in here and start posting.

[ICEninja]

I'm surprised Ice didn't come down harder against Shattered for some of the more ridiculous things he said.

You're right, I actually made the active decision to not pursue Shattered for a short while. I did this because the fact that he voted me for bad reasons combined with how much of an elitist player he is making himself, I would have a very difficult time attacking him without getting overly flustered, which would distract the town at this point. I am, however, definitely watching him carefully and as soon as I feel like I have a solid case on him, believe me you'll hear it.

In reading over Net's ISO, I notice a few things.

Firstly, I really didn't like his random vote. Sure it is one thing to vote someone based on their name or avatar or previous game, but he chose to vote Oso for being "antsy", and hasn't given any explanation as to what made him feel Oso was antsy, despite multiple questions related to his random vote. It seemed like he really noticed something antsy about Oso's posts, or else he would have made a random vote about something silly.

Then there was this, which I've already explained why is blatantly wrong:

Ice, shorter days do not necessarily mean less content. Your excuse is pointless, not to mention invalid.

He later concedes the point, which is interesting considering how harsh of wording he used. "Pointless" and "invalid" are fairly absolute.

After, he puts a vote on Fernando. While I feel like it was a good move, I didn't like his reasoning for it. He said he simply placed the vote on Fernando because he had votes on him already. That should suggest that this lurker is already under some pressure to vote, so why not pick a lurker who isn't being discussed?

The fact that Net's vote is still on Fernando for lurking, despite the fact that Fernando is posting now, also gives me pause. All in all, I don't really like what I see.

Vote Netlava

.

[ICEninja]

If Ice thought Shattered was scummy he should have accused him and pointed out his reasons.

You're right. Once I find Shattered scummy, I will accuse him and point out my reasons. I did say I would do this.

Prioritizing not getting flustered over scumhunting shows a scummy focus on appearance.

This would be valid if I were not scum hunting. Yet if you look at the rest of the post you're attacking, you'll find that I am.

Ice's sentence about watching and intending to deliver a case later sounds like he already has an opinion on Shattered's alignment.

I have an opinion about his personality that will definitely cloud my judgment about him until I find more alignment indicative content. At the moment, the only thing at all that I can find in Shattered's ISO is where he's overstating how I am probably scum and how Xine is probably town based on purely town meta. No town is actually that confident this early in the game. However, I've played with other people that have similar personality types, and they generally do seem to think they're good enough to declare someone scum on page 2 and town on page 3 or 4. Therefore my opinion on Shattered really doesn't say much about his alignment at all.

Therefore anything I say being aggressive towards him would simply be me being frustrated about how irritating he is, which would distract town. If you think I'm scummy for not scum hunting the player you want me to scum hunt, then that isn't my problem. I'm looking at other players, too.

That post could have gone
"There's a lot less time, so assuming vaguely comparable post rates, we'll have less information. Everyone please make an effort to post a lot."
Instead it's several paragraphs long.

You'll find me doing this a lot, in every game I play. I like to be very thorough.

Another consideration is that Ice has been spending a lot of time mentioning how soon the deadline is;

I've felt that my play style is not suited to this rule set, so I have been spending a lot of effort trying to adapt to short days. I'm sorry if I'm saying it too much, but I feel like it is relevant when I bring it up.

if there was a case to be made against Shattered it should have been made immediately so that we could discuss it fully
Rather than delayed until the town would have to analyze and vote on it hastily.

Did I not clearly state that as soon as I have a case against him I'll bring it up?

This most recent Ice post sounded like preparation to bus a scumbuddy if he gets into trouble,
but leaving him alone for now in case a town player gets fired upon first.

Or maybe it is preparation to attack a player as soon as he says something scummy (and give me a great deal of satisfaction should we lynch him and he flips scum) or not get frustrated based on tells that are, for the most part, not alignment telling.

Zinive, you don't have your vote on anyone yet you've made a few statements suggesting you suspect people. Are you waiting for an opportunistic time to vote?

Xine, if you like I can direct you to a couple games where I have personality clashes with players like Shattered. I am trying to avoid frustrating situations that happened in said games.

[ICEninja]

Shattered, is Nobody Special your account?

Llama, your list of contradictions is interesting. Individually, each of them is extremely weak and can be explained away, but suspicion of Shattered is definitely justified.

Net, I feel like you're brushing off my vote and saying that you'll do stuff later. I don't like that.

After Llama's statement about cruelty's 2 posts being bad, I went back and looked at them myself. Both of his posts contain a statement implying that things aren't worth commenting on, and has contributed virtually nothing. He votes because someone presented a town/scum list, which, yes, was odd to do so early in the game, but not exactly scummy.

If cruelty doesn't start contributing something of content soon, I'm going to be extremely suspicious.

I'm looking forward to reading everything Equinox has to say. If he has a significant wall to post on only 4 pages of info, there could be some really good analysis in there. I'd like to note how he random voted me on virtue of my tendency to post walls. This isn't scummy, but it is ironic.

[ICEninja]

Is this your first game under the BaM ruleset?

It is indeed. I was quite disheveled when I noted the day lengths, but am relaxing a bit now that more of the players are contributing.

What were your reads on the active players when you voted for FeRnAnDo?

I hadn't yet really found anything amongst the active players that, at the time, merited my vote. I felt like because the game days are so short that I shouldn't be spending a significant amount of time without my vote doing anything. In terms of who I suspected the most at the point of making my Fernando vote, it was probably Zinive, though in retrospect cruelty could have warranted a vote.

I for the most part really liked Equinox's post. He seemed to buddy up to me a bit, but I'll not be too bothered by that being that I had already defended myself from the points he countered.

Equinox, did you notice my case on Net? You touched on almost every significant event, but the only thing I saw you referring to Net was a point against him. Judging by how you didn't include him on your possible scum list, I'm going to be inclined to believe that you disagreed with my case. If you disagreed, why did you not bring it up?

[ICEninja]

Mod, has a prod been sent out to PerArdua?

Ice, I have already responded to your "case."

You brushed my case off. You didn't answer my statements about the antsy vote at all and completely wrote it off as not being important. You said you stood by the idea that my "excuse" was still invalid. By the way, since it seems like I wasn't clear, I wasn't saying that my activity level would be lower, I meant that my quality of analysis might not be up to my own personal standards. I don't believe I said anything about quantity of posts.

If you're going to say he's town, do so based on the merits of his play this game.

This is absolutely true. If someone is making alternate accounts, they usually do so with the purpose of muddying their own meta. You simply cannot rely on meta reads in cases like this. Sure, it can give you a gut read or a slight leaning, but don't let this dissuade you from believing he's scum if a case is made against him.

i think that it's reasonable to have 2-3 suspects. confirming that you believe somebody to be town (without a good reason, such as a wagon building against them, a weak case against them etc) isn't really beneficial at any point.

Come on, cruelty. That statement is all you had to say? It refers to an old argument that wasn't even really all that comment worthy. It was such a worthless post, which considering your posting, is definitely saying something. You're so fixated on the fact that he put a scum-town list, yet I see people do this all the time.

Also, consider this: if a town puts a town-scum list, it helps scum. If scum does it, how does it help scum? Scum already has that information. You can call someone anti-town for it, but not scummy.

Furthermore, how can town have accurate town reads so early in the game? How does that help scum anyway? This just feels like your entire case against him is confirmation bias that doing this is bad, therefore you're scum. I don't like that at all.

Oso I see your case against Llama, but I think a lot of it is context. Just because he was the 3rd on your wagon and he attacked the 3rd on another wagon isn't by itself scummy. However, Llama's unvote revote without any explanation whatsoever is pretty bad. I'm not convinced, but this case does somewhat deter my town read on Llama.

At the moment I'm still suspicious of Net, but my suspicion of cruelty is definitely rising. I'll be switching my vote soon if cruelty's posts don't improve.

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[ICEninja]

Main point of the first half of my votepost on Llama wasn't that the vote/suspicion was the third spot but rather he felt using voting or casting suspicion at at certain point was off enough to add to a case on another player and indicates that player might be scum. Yet he doesn't apply that same standard to himself.

I don't see it. I don't see where he stated that his reason for voting someone was that it was the third vote, I believed he voted someone because they had a suspicious vote that looked opportunistic.

Me and PA were the first to people I thought of who'd barely posted. I don't get why it's odd.

As someone else stated, the reasons for being suspicious had nothing to do with you and Per, so it did seem odd.

Oso's case on llama is interesting. I don't think much of the contradiction part. The main part that intrigues me is this:

I agree that that contradiction part is underwhelming, but that was by far his most significant point in the case. What you quoted didn't seem all that interesting at all, it simply states what we did. Both of us jumped in to this game with the intention of getting discussing going ASAP, and did so. I don't, actually, feel like either of what we did was even that "reachy" because they were probably the strongest cases we could have composed with the information available to us.

Alright, Equinox picked up on what I was concerned about with Zinive. He really seems to be waiting for the right time to jump on a safe wagon, and he more or less even admitted it. He wants to go right up until the deadline, which scum loves to do. If scum is caught but gets to delay their wagon until the deadline, they can claim power role and send town in to a panicked frenzy to CC or reposition their wagon.

In looking through Zinive's posts, I see a lack of positions, votes, or real analysis. This looks like a player who is trying to slide by, post when needed, and jump on a bandwagon when theres some steam on it.

I'm not hugely satisfied with Net's responses, but my case against him wasn't the best. I have a gut feeling that he is scum, but I feel like I have stronger evidence pointing towards scum Zinive. Cruelty is my other biggest suspicion. While I see no connection between any of the players, I feel pretty good about at least one of them being scum, and find it likely that even multiple of them are. For now:

Unvote, Vote Zinive

.

[ICEninja]

Shattered, you need to take a stance on who you feel is scum. The only player you've voted is me, and you've since declared me probably town. Is that all you have?

Fernando, while you may not have a lot of votes on you, quite a few players feel like you're fairly suspicious. While I wouldn't say you're as scummy as Zinive or cruelty, you're up there. Care to respond to some of the points made against you?

Cruelty, as it has been pointed out, the only thing you've contributed to this game is that you don't approve of town-scum lists. Do you have any suspicions based on something that isn't a null tell?

Net, I approve of your most recent vote so I'll be off your case for the time being. Try to keep the scum hunting up, though.

PerArdua, seriously either play or get out of the game.

[ICEninja]

I was pretty sure that Equi was scum due to her constant "more later LOL" comments.

Today is rather pressed, but I will have Real Content throughout Tuesday.

Am I missing something, or did you just say "more later LOL" in the second part of the post you just declared that scummy? I'd also like to point out things you have said before:

I refuse to participate in Random Voting, so let me know when you're done with that.

More later today, kinda rushed right now.

You've only made 11 posts, very few of them containing real content, and 3 of them promise content at a later time. I don't like this at all.

[ICEninja]

Zinive, the only section of your case against Shattered that holds any water is this:

Aside from this he has not given much of his opinion. For example who are his suspects. Who would he vote for?

I agree, the only person Shattered has voted for is myself, and he currently has a town read on me. This is a very valid point. However, while the question about why he was still voting me without suspecting me, was his error.

I suppose your point about him voting me for unneeded reasons makes sense, but he didn't vote me with the intention to lynch me at the point.

Don't expect people to find you town because you presented a case after you were forced to.

I don't, however, find Shattered to be very town.

It is interesting to note this disparity:

There's a difference in being self-confident (like I am) and being rude. (as you are). You're trying (a little too hard, IMO) to draw attention away from yourself by deeply going into "analysis" so early in the game (yeah, yeah, it's not that early what with the microscopic deadline and all).

I'm reasonably sure you're scum.

Bold is my emphasis.

He hadn't;

I was cautioning him

not to glom onto me and pursue something that, in the long run, would be unproductive.

This second part is seeming to backpedal on your original feelings of myself. You voted me because you found me scummy, and you only gave 2 reasons for being reasonably sure I am scum. The first is rudeness, which you later stated I didn't actually do. The second reason you gave for finding me scummy is that I was delving in to analysis too early (which doesn't seem like a scum tell under any light) and had some hedging involved with the tell. You preemptively backpedaled saying that it isn't actually that early because of short game day lengths.

Looking back on it, that vote was actually really bad after you stating why you voted me.

[ICEninja]

Zinive, I agree with Anti that your vote was blatant OMGUS. You literally didn't have a single valid point against him in your vote. You voted him for these reasons:

You also call me lurking and fencesitting while I have given my opinion and made my vote.

You gave your opinion and voted only because we forced you to. It was also extremely weak. You've done nothing else since except your OMGUS, and you did nothing before your vote on Shattered.

You ended your analyze pretty early and instead said that my posts was not understandable

He said everything he needed to say. And no, your vote was so bad it wasn't very understandable.

Besides this you ignored some of my statements. For example the Lurker thematic.

Your opinions on lurkers have nothing to do with why we want to lynch you, and this isn't indication that Anti is scum.

I believe you simple pile now on me because you are diverting the attention away that cruelty made with a really weak case and word twisting.

Oh so now you think cruelty is scummy for his case? Why didn't you say that, oh, several pages ago when he made the case? You didn't say very much about it before, so why say it now? All you said was that he made statements you could not follow, and agreed with M=W about him. There wasn't any word twisting involved anywhere.

Roleclaim: Town Jailkeeper

And this is

exactly

what I expected to happen, and is exactly why I said we can't wait until the last possible second to lynch scum. If you really were the jail keeper, you would have realized the merit when I said if we force a claim and it is a town PR, then we won't have time to redirect our wagon sufficiently. If you were planning this all along, then you would have wanted the day to go right as close to the deadline as possible before the PR claim.

That being said, I'm very leery of lynching a claimed PR on day 1, especially considering how fast that wagon built to L-1. Wagons on scum don't do that terribly often.

Unvote

.

(The part where he might be intentionally trying to drag out the day though doesn't, it may be just me but that seems a bit too counter-intuitive for scum to be doing so I don't think that part of the suspicions is valid).

In normal rule sets, I would agree with you. However, I always like to have 3 days left after the claim, which isn't a big deal for normal game day lengths. It is a lot more significant when we're pressed for time and may need to make very dramatic changes. Consider what situation we would be in if he just claimed jail keeper and the deadline was tonight instead of a few days away.

I don't feel comfortable lynching Zinive at the moment. I agree with the general idea that Fernando is the second scummiest. If someone can prove that he has been active lurking on short game days where he has been addressed repeatedly, then I'd say that right there is good enough for a lynch.

[ICEninja]

I agree that the claim is sketchy but for the time being I'm going to assume it is genuine. We can reconsider tomorrow what to do.

In checking Fernando's profile, it shows his last visit as Saturday, not Sunday. However, considering that he isn't in any other games and hasn't been since the beginning of this game, or posted in any other thread, I can only assume that he was in this post without saying anything. There is absolutely zero town motivation to active lurk this hard, especially after having been called out for it.

If he was busy town, he would have asked for a replacement. I'd say this is good enough for me, considering the information we have. Plus his flip will give us additional information on Zinive's role, so that is a bonus.

Vote Fernando

.

[ICEninja]

We're 2 days away from deadline, and this activity level is not good, guys. If anyone is against the Fernando wagon, speak up now.

[ICEninja]

Um...what? Equinox unvoted 2 posts right before mod showed Fernando at L-1 without Equinox's vote on. Am I missing something, or was the vote count incorrect?

[ICEninja]

Oh Equinox never switched her vote to Fernando. That was indeed just the hammer, then.

I do believe we lynched a lurking scum. Hopefully we'll confirm this soon.

[ICEninja]

Yeah my case against Net is way outdated, and I haven't believed in it for quite some time. I do believe I've said as much. I apologize that you wasted your time.

[ICEninja]

Well, wow. I really just don't even want to play this game anymore.

To whoever the vig is, sure I don't mind Shattered dying on the account that he was an ass, but did you even look at the vote count? He was one of the few people NOT on the mislynch wagon. Terrible shot choice.

But whatever. I really just don't even care at all at this point.

[ICEninja]

Umm guys, take a look at this:

one with a bullet clean between the eyes

the other peppered with weapon fire

It is very obvious that the jail keeper, Zinive, was killed by scum, and Shattered killed by non scum. I suppose it could have been a serial killer, but whatever.

I seriously don't care.

The top 2 scummiest players during day 1 were the town power roles, and the scummiest player pre-lynch was a vanilla townie. A 4th player isn't even playing. would it be unreasonable at this point to request replacement?

[ICEninja]

Yes, sir, it would, if the reason behind your wish to replace out is based purely on the game situation.

I've been in worse game situations than this one. I'm just extremely unhappy about how badly Fernando screwed us over, in a game that I haven't been particularly enjoying to begin with. Oh and that isn't even mentioning PerArdua. But I'll stay for the time being.

Frankly, I think right now our best bet is actually to let PerArdua get mod killed. It is a stupid method to deal with him, because any other mod would have replaced him a week ago, but lynching him gives mafia and either a gun happy vig or SK more shots. Since Per absolutely must die anyway, we may as well not give scum more night actions because at this point, lets face it, town is useless at night.

At a quick glance, which is all I care to give this game anymore, Oso looks pretty opportunistic. He voted Fernando without really believing in it just to end the day, and gave himself the option to deny having really wanted to lynch Fernando, which is great for scum in this situation. This theory is augmented by how much he moved his vote around, trying to find a safe spot for it.

So for now,

Vote Oso

.

If we have a vig, for the love of god hold your fire unless you're really sure you'll hit scum.

[ICEninja]

He posed just the right questions to get me thinking that what I accused of him of doing scummily, might very well be the way to go this game. He played me like a cheap guitar on that one and I'm not sure whether to be pissed or to congratulate him.

What? Maybe I'm just town, and genuinely feel how I say I feel and you recognized that. I'm terrible at scum, or at least I was the game I played it. You're giving me way too much credit for something I'm probably not capable of.

Most of your case against me is "Oh wait so you WERE scummy for the reasons I said yesterday then decided that they weren't scum tells."
And yes, I was referring to your hop from Llama to Zinive to Fernando. For the most part, scum's goal isn't to be off the wagon, it is generally more to make a mislynch happen. You misinterpreted what I meant by safe.

Don't be fooled by the discouraged townie act. He's laughing his ass off right now. Real stroke of luck for scum: Dead Cop. Add in the outted and now dead JK and the only person who really seriously questioned him yesterday (beside myself) dead(SV). He is loving this game as it stands now.

Right. This makes me want to replace out even more.

Llama, don't take my frustration as defeatism. A few games ago, town was in a 7 man lylo. I successfully called out the entire scum team at that point and pushed for a town victory. While on vacation, I might add. If that wasn't the most uphill battle I've ever fought then I don't know what is. This is less mountainous than that game was. I'm just feeling like this is the dumbest and least enjoyable game I've played here at MS. We had our cop completely flake on us, despite having logged in to the site, another player who obviously isn't interested in playing, Zinive was scummy and yet a power role, and we're going to either have to lynch a 1 post player or let him die of mod kill because the mod is using a rule set that doesn't deal with inactive players. I don't even care if town manages to win somehow, I'm just not interested in doing much with this failfest.

[ICEninja]

The point that someone brought up that it gives the mafia an extra kill somewhat makes sense... but only if we lynch correctly today.

If we lynch PerArdua today then we're in the exact same boat tomorrow, except we're short whoever scum decides to night kill. We're therefore in an even worse situation day 3 than we are today. No, we don't lynch him. Our odds of either PerArdua or (preferably and) whoever we decide to lynch are the same regardless if he is mod killed or not, but we're denying a night kill by allowing the mod kill. The only argument for killing him today is the pool for who we lynch tomorrow is smaller.

Once again, to anyone who feels like there could be two mafia groups, just look at the flavor. There could be an SK, but the flavor is extremely indicative of there being a vig. If it is an SK then scum wouldn't know conclusively anyway, so it isn't even scummy to say that I have too much information. The likelihood of there being 2 scum families is low enough without even reading the flavor text.

Dude. Don't fall for that. If you're town, and I believe you are, you know you're right; don't let a case like this one pull you down.

It wasn't even a case, it was just him being an ass. There's a difference.

Looking at Xine's presentation of important votes, I'd agree that Anti and Oso are the scummiest looking. It bears worth looking at those who were trying to lynch Zinive despite the PR claim, as scum knew at that point he was telling the truth and gained more from killing him. I might at some point go back and look at who did that.

So yeah. I'm good with pushing an Oso wagon, and we aren't lynching PerArdua. I'm sorry that my care for this game has plummeted, I'll still play but you're just going to have to deal with me being pissed at this game.

[ICEninja]

Net, who replaced Net (how convenient) made a very strong statement:

WHY THE HECK IS LLAMARBLE NOT DEAD? Seriously, he is the most obvious scum that I have seen in months

And the proceeded to follow this extremely strong accusation with a weak case. As Llama said, PerArdua was simply not playing. Fernando had logged in since posting, and had posted some lame stuff. I think the scum link comment is a null tell, point 5 was completely inane, and the only points that hold any water are the defensiveness and overeager accusations. Definitely not enough to make such an overly strong statement.

[ICEninja]

Net, I don't think

all

of your points are really terrible, I just feel like they're on the weak side. Which is interesting because probably your only decent point against him is that he made a lot of weak cases.

Iceninja, Netopalis' case isn't faked

Faked? Since when is pointing out that his case isn't strong enough to justify the force of his statement means I'm accusing him of faking a case? I just noticed how adamant he was that Llama was scum, and proceeded to provide fairly lackluster reasons for it.

Please stop chasing red herrings.

I'm going to assume that your understanding of a red herring is the very generalized meaning of anything that is distracting, because you didn't use the word correctly at all if you're considering the actual meaning of the word. I saw a discrepancy between conviction of a read and reasons to find someone scummy. I pointed this out. How in any way shape or form is this a red herring?

I don't like Anti's attempting to direct attention away from Net, especially considering how Anti doesn't like Net's case against Llama either. I feel like there is a conflict here.

[ICEninja]

Why are you being so obstinantly blind to his scuminess?

Do you even know where my vote is?

[ICEninja]

Um alright, congratulations.

I was having loads of fun with it too.

I don't see how town would be having loads of fun with this game considering what has happened so far. I believe his reasons for replacing out, but I really think this guy is scum. Deadline is in 2 days, let's not bother with a replacement. I don't even think there's much need of a claim, due to how many dead town PRs there already are. I've been suspicious of Oso from the get go of this day, and all the points made against him have been increasingly convincing.

The activity level is disgusting, but whatever. The sooner this game is over the better anyway.

If we have a vig, if we mislynch today

do not shoot under any circumstance because if you miss we literally lose

. If this is a 9:1:3, then we're in mylo right now and Oso better be scum. If we hit scum and you

really

think you have another scum pegged then fine, but it'll be on your ass if it sends us to premature lylo.

[ICEninja]

I was wondering how you interpreted ICEninja's post to mean that he was accusing Netopalis of making a fake case.

I asked this as well. This would actually be the third time it has been brought up, and not really answered. When did I ever say or even imply that his case was faked? Again I say, I pointed out that there was a discrepancy between his conviction that Llama is scum and how strong his case was. When you make a statement such as "I can't believe this guy isn't dead", you generally follow it up with extremely strong points that are usually backed up by quoted examples showing that a player is scummy. Net made a few points, some of which were valid, some of which were not. None of them were particularly damning.

[ICEninja]

Chess, I would have raged even harder if I thought the vig had shot a claimed PR. If Shattered was, for some idiotic reason, the scum kill, it was only because shattered was off the Fernando wagon. I can't see any other reasoning for it. Scum clearly knew that Zinive was indeed a power role, so they offed him.

"I'm terrible at scum, or at least I was the game I played it. You're giving me way too much credit for something I'm probably not capable of."

Nice. Real nice. How he survived more than a page after this is beyond me.

It is the truth. The only game I played scum in, I got caught on day 1 and lynched hard. Scum proceeded to lose on day 2 due to mass claim. I'd say that qualifies me as terrible scum, not someone to be playing him like a violin. This isn't even a point against me.

Nice, Llama. Jumping to defend your scumbuddy? Really? You're making it this obvious?

The case on him was crap. I noticed, as I've said probably 3 times now, that there was a discrepancy between Net's conviction that Llama is scum and the strength of his case against him. How is that not worth pointing out? People have also called the case on me crap. Does that make all of them scum? Haven't you ever called another player's case weak? Did that make you scum? Terrible point.

And now he's telling the vig not to shoot. WTF? Vig should definitely shoot regardless. If he/she doesn't, you get mylo, get to NL and then another guaranteed townie dies. With a dead cop, liklihood of another investigative role is very low.
Therefore vig shoots and takes the town controlled kill instead of the guaranteed town kill.

Oh, so I guess its better that night becomes endgame instead. THAT makes sense. You do realize that if 3 townies die (mislynch, which is when I said to not shoot, bad vig kill, scum night kill) that in the standard 9:3 setup there is 3 scum left against 3 townies and we lose. If we mislynch and vig doesn't shoot, we're in lylo not mylo, having 4 townies to 3 scum. Do you trust the vig to decide the game for us, before even having seen the scum's night kill?

You obviously don't understand the actual situation, obviously didn't read my reasoning for telling vig to not shoot if we mislynch, and obviously want town to lose tonight.

No one "sheeped" on to Oso's wagon. There have been numerous solid points made against him by several different people.

I think that would explain why he wasn't providing content, if that was your objection.

There has yet to be an objection to Oso's content, to my current recollection. Why are you defending against attacks that never even happened?

In the meantime, I am putting my vote on scum. I suggest you do the same.

My vote is on scum. Yours isn't.

I realize how much your situation sucks. You just replaced in when people were already right about to lynch you for your predecessor's terrible play. You've made a valiant attempt, but you are today's lynch.

[ICEninja]

Because you knew it wasn't. Thank you for playing into my hand.

Since when did "thought" become "knew"?

I have a town read on Ice, though I don't like the "I can't be scum because if I were I wouldn't be able to pull this off" thing.
I really wouldn't want to lose to a scum who said something like that.

I didn't say that suggesting i can't be scum, I said that in response to Oso saying that I'm pulling all the strings.

I was actually thinking that Xine is a likely scum buddy to scum Oso/chess.

Shit, I did forget about the modkill. We're in mylo right now. If we successfully lynch scum, which I think we will, PerArdua will die, probably flip town, and scum will night kill a townie. If there is an SK, we've already lost I think. If we're wrong about chess, then we might have lost anyway.

If PerArdua dies at the same time as the lynch, we should be OK. If both PerArdua and chess are town, then our only hope is vig shooting scum. If one of them is scum, then we will be in mylo tomorrow. Chess knew we would be in mylo tomorrow after lynching him, so I'm fairly certain that PerArdua will flip town and chess will flip scum. If that is the case, then fire away and try to hit scum.

If both PerArdua and chess flip scum, then hold your fire because we'll be in a 4 town to 1 scum situation giving us an extra lynch if no more bodies appear.

[ICEninja]

For the love of god, scum, just bus your buddy and get on with it.

[ICEninja]

Alright so if we have an SK, he targeted the same person as scum. If we have a vig, he either targeted the same person as scum or ignored good reasons to shoot if fewer than 2 scum died yesterday.

It is actually fortuitous in my eyes that Anti was the one who died. I felt fairly certain either one or the other of Xine and Anti were scum, but not both. Their interactions didn't feel like town on town at all to me, and it obviously wasn't a busing act. Xine has done a lot of floating just under the radar without gathering too much suspicion, as well, particularly in day 2.

If people don't agree with me, I'll probably actually go back and make a case on this. I feel good enough about this lynch to go through with it then have a no lynch on day 4 to put is in a pretty good lylo situation.

Vote: Xine

.

[ICEninja]

I'm not rushing for the lynch, I just feel confident that my vote is on scum right now. I do want to see today played out, especially so we can better know where to move in to day 4.

Llama if you are unsure that Xine is the last scum, who else do you think is a good contender to be scum? Before being hesitant about lynching her, let us know what the next best lynch options are and why.

[ICEninja]

I propose a mass claim.

I feel that if I explain, I will ruin this, so please bear with me until it's over.

I fully support this.

[ICEninja]

I came into today thinking Oso scum implied Xine scum almost certainly, so I was okay with lynching her despite it usually being optimal in Mylo for town to no-lynch simply to get better odds the next day, and I'm no longer as sure that's what we should do.

The reason it is optimal to no-lynch in mylo is you have statistically better chances of hitting scum in lylo because 1 extra townie is dead. However, there are a few things to consider.
Firstly, I think we probably have a vig. This has 2 implications:
1)If we hit scum today, the vig can shoot tonight. Knowing himself to be town, he will have a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, and a 1/3 chance of shooting the same townie that scum kills, thus resulting in no extra loss. 2 townies dying after successfully lynching scum puts town in a fairly strong lylo position. If the vig hits, town auto wins.
2)If we mislynch tonight, having a vig means we can possibly survive. If the vig shoots after having lynched a townie, he has a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and thus saving town from being end gamed.

If we truly do have a vig, even if we lynch randomly today and the vig shoots randomly tonight, odds are looking pretty good for us. Only 1 scum has to die in order for us to survive until the next day, and a random lynch plus a random vig shot gives us a 70% chance of killing at least one scum and thus surviving to day 4.

Giving scum a night kill on us takes this opportunity away from us because even if vig shoots scum at night, mislynching in lylo still results in a loss.

This all hinges on us actually having the vig that I think we do, but only the mass claim will tell, yes? That is why I support it. With natural action resolution, vig and mafia shoot at the same time so even if vig claims today and gets NKed tonight, the kill will go off. Should we give the scum the night kill, we'll have a 40%

[ICEninja]

*EBWOP

I accidentally hit submit before i was finished.

Should we give the scum the night kill, we'll have a 40% chance to survive to day 5 by lynching randomly. I'd say that 70% compared to 40% is definitely what we want to do.

[ICEninja]

Mod, is a prod due for Net?

[ICEninja]

Mod, I forgot about M=W. Can a prod be sent to him some time soon as well?

[ICEninja]

I buy the claim. Would anyone like to counterclaim before I assume Llama is more or less confirmed town? If no counterclaim comes forth, Llama needs to decide who is next in line to claim.

[ICEninja]

Llama was your only scum read? Does anybody have anything remotely decent other than Xine? Town seems moderately united here.

[ICEninja]

This activity level is disgusting. I guess no one else is any more interested in this game than I am.

Does anyone have a problem with lynching Xine? We really can't let this day go down to the wire, because if we lynch wrong we lose. We can't fall back on Llamarble, because he's out of bullets. No lynching today isn't going to help because they're just going to kill Llamarble tonight, since he's the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie.

Xine, you haven't done anything at all to convince me you aren't scum.

[ICEninja]

Still here. My Legal Writing II brief was turned in today, so I'll be able to post tonight with my thoughts. Sorry about that.

I'm waiting eagerly for this. I need this post before I can continue with what I want to say.

I would prefer if no one else vote before this post comes.

[ICEninja]

I really have nothing to say that could be convincing, other then to repeat my claim.

So you have no scum suspects. Period. Tsk.

while we are waiting, Ice, would you post that case on me, I'd like to see it so I can take a few lessons with me from this extreemly poorly played game.

Its fairly low on my priority, but if I have some time before the day is over I'll do it.

[ICEninja]

you are an intellectual tease, and also, you are willing to cast a vote in mylo, but not willing to present a case on the person you are voting for. really? perhaps I should look at you as a suspect too? hmm... I'll consider that.

I feel like I've made it pretty clear that I've lost all interest in putting effort in to this game. I haven't made a post regarding anything beyond the most recent 15 posts or so since day 1, and I don't intend to bother going back and reading old stuff unless I have to.

I said I'd make a case if I needed to, but we have enough people suspecting you to get you to L-1, and there's probably someone willing to hammer. Thus, actually posting the case is low on my priority list. Considering the situation, and how you only asked me to make a case for your personal benefit, this little dirt thrown on me feels like a bit of OMGUS.

That being said I have tomorrow off and will probably have some spare time. If I get enough Starcraft 2 in I'll make the case.

[ICEninja]

Well town's loss was largely my fault. The fact that I pegged Oso as scum was more luck than anything else, honesty. I never at one point in this game after day 1 went back and read a single post or looked at a single player in ISO, something I usually do in games quite a few times every day. But whatever. Fernando and PerArdua we're scum's best players in this game, hands down without any doubt.

I have never seen so much hate for a dead townie. And it's not even like I fake claimed or did anything crazy, either.

It was simply because in gut reads (I pretty much didn't use any logic in anything, and my gut reads usually suck which is why I don't use them in games I care about) we're wrong. I thought one scum HAD to be between you and Xine, but I knew that one of you had to be town. With you dead, I felt much safer in a Xine lynch.

If Xine was scum I was gonna lynch M=W on day 4, but Equinox being scum blindsided me pretty hard. Granted I didn't really read much and I might have picked up on it another time, but you played excellently. M=W was fairly solid too. I claimed to have a town read on M=W because I wanted scum to night kill him just in case I was wrong, to hedge my bets. Probably the only clever thing I did, and it didn't matter anyway.

Xine, if you didn't want to be lynched, you should have told us who else was scum and why. You just kinda sat there and said "oh my only scum suspicion just claimed PR and is almost guaranteed town, so now I don't have any suspicion. Oh well." It didn't work out for you, if you noticed. That post was the one where I was prety much dead set on lynching you. Before that I could have been convinced to change my vote.

My question to the scumteam - why not kill ICEninja? I dunno, I felt he was more of a threat than even Zinive as the JK, but that was just me.

Man wouldn't that have been awesome. I would have been jailed, which would have confirmed me as town after Llama claimed and said he killed Shattered, AND we would have had an extra lynch.

Anyways, this wasn't a game I particularly enjoyed, but not for lack of fun people to play with. It's always a pleasure to play with Equinox, and I was impressed with how hard chess fought for his slot. Llama, while tough to read his posts, was a great asset to the town, and scum played wonderfully. Anti was pretty good too, but was hurt by his predecessor, which is really unfortunate.

Oh well. Not all games go as you want them.

[ICEninja]

I'm surprised people still seem to think that I had this defeatism because town faced long odds. As I said in the game, I've faced pretty crazy odds being in a 4 town vs 3 scum lylo and winning it, and enjoying doing it. I was just so pissed off at Fernando for flaking on us, PerArdua for flaking on us, and for the mod to be using a rule set that doesn't deal with flakers very well. We were just stuck in a situation where town players were not playing and badly hurting town, and no the game is not fun when people are doing that. Therefore I did not enjoy this game very much.

You won't find me defeated in the face of long odds. I've pulled through before and I'm going to do it again.

I feel like a single shot vig should shoot day 2. During day 1 your likelihood of killing a townie is pretty high. You have more flips to work with day 2, and a better idea of who is scum, and you also have more time to discover players like PerArdua who, being alive, will damage the game. I've been in several games where there has been a townie that simply had to be policy lynched because of something stupid, and a vig shot would have seriously eased up on town.

As Ythill said, if you claim vig during day 2 and announce to town who you're going to kill, you'll draw scum night kill towards yourself which can often be a good thing, especially if no other town PRs have died yet. This also more or less confirms you as a townie for day 2, thus increasing the likelihood that town is going to nail scum on day 2.

Also, I feel like you can have a better idea of who to avoid shooting because of PR tells for day 2. It is also good to shoot anyone who has claimed VT but doesn't get lynched.

[ICEninja]

I was banking on ICEninja, Llamarble, or Netopalis not re-reading the game and then catching some of the hesitation in my play.

Don't ever bank on me not reading stuff and catching you on things. This was probably the only game you would have ever been able to get away with that =)

Me=Weird, you really coasted under the radar. I have to admit that I wasn't confident you'd make it, hence sending you to do the dirty work all the time; I feared someone would accuse you of lurking, yet nobody considered it at all.

Once again, in any other game I would have definitely been hounding him for more content. I'm pretty harsh on lurkers when I'm really playing (as evidenced by my day 1 play).