Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[AGar]

After a tense night, the town awoke the next morning. While the results the day before were good, they hoped to avoid the tragedy that came along with them today. Everyone sauntered out of their beds and prepared for another long day.

As everyone came to the town square, a head count was taken. After a few checks, it was noticed that another citizen had gone missing. Everyone split apart to go look for any trace of the man. One unlucky duo found him, speared through a fence post, a bullet between his eyes for good measure. When everyone reconvened at the town square, they told of the tragedy.

It looked to be a grim start to another day.

Antihero, Vanilla Townie, Killed Night 2

Votecount 3.0

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (0)

-

Not Voting (6)

- ICEninja, Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Equinox, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

No one

is the current wagon leader at

L-4

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

[Equinox]

MyLo.

I'd like to lynch today. Discuss.

MOD: If someone doesn't submit a night action, do you send any reminders before deadline hits?

Thoughts will follow response to this question.

[ICEninja]

Alright so if we have an SK, he targeted the same person as scum. If we have a vig, he either targeted the same person as scum or ignored good reasons to shoot if fewer than 2 scum died yesterday.

It is actually fortuitous in my eyes that Anti was the one who died. I felt fairly certain either one or the other of Xine and Anti were scum, but not both. Their interactions didn't feel like town on town at all to me, and it obviously wasn't a busing act. Xine has done a lot of floating just under the radar without gathering too much suspicion, as well, particularly in day 2.

If people don't agree with me, I'll probably actually go back and make a case on this. I feel good enough about this lynch to go through with it then have a no lynch on day 4 to put is in a pretty good lylo situation.

Vote: Xine

.

[Llamarble]

I too am happy to see Antihero gone.
One kill could be for any of the reasons Ice mentioned, or another PR interfering, or the vig being of the one-shot variety.
I am also on board with lynching Xine, though we should certainly wait at least a bit for her to claim/etc. before going through with it.
I would like to see everyone's points on her (and I'll put up my own soon) if only to help me read everyone else.
We should also think about who might be Xine's scumpartner.
Also do people get modkilled if day 3 is short and they never talk? Given that it's mylo, if we can kill Xine and one of the players who hasn't talked yet by lynching her faster that would be better than doing no lynch tomorrow, right?
It does seem like kind of an abuse of the ruleset though.
To prevent quickhammering -> victory by the scumteam, we shouldn't put another vote on until we're ready to lynch regardless.

Time to look over Xine's activities.

[AGar]

The morning was fresh and cold, the sting of the brutal death still haunting the minds of the citizens. However, they set right to work, determining what their plan of action for today would be.

Votecount 3.1

ICEninja (0)

-

Llamarble (0)

-

Me=Weird (0)

-

Netopalis (0)

-

Equinox (0)

-

Xine (1)

- ICEninja

Not Voting (6)

- Llamarble, Me=Weird, Netopalis, Equinox, Xine

With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch.

Xine

is the current wagon leader at

L-3

Deadline is Saturday, November 13th, 2010 @ 11:59 PM EST

@Equinox

See rule 6.

[chesskid3]

/bah

[Llamarble]

Okay, having reread rule 12 the "lynch somebody fastish so we effectively get 2 lynches" plan doesn't work.

Anyway, on to Xine:
"It does look like it's true of shattered's meta that he is probably town in this game"
Scum don't usually hand out town reads to scummy townies, so this is hrrm.
She asks a lot of questions that seem like small prods toward various lynches but hasn't done much scumhunting.

I didn't actually find much new and interesting beyond what I posted before, which I'll repeat here:
Oso and Xine have showed some teamwork; both of them went after me yesterday with similar cases.
Xine pointed out that Oso's wagon wasn't bothering him in a way that made it sound like she was trying to set him up as innocent.
Xine went after Antihero for similar behavior to Oso's and has largely ignored suspicion directed at Oso.
Xine's "look at him defending himself, he's totally scum" post sounded like evil cackling to me.

I'd appreciate others pointing out things Xine has done that I forgot about.
I came into my reread with a strong scum impression from Xine but going back through it's not so obvious.

I don't see as much from Xine as I expected to, so maybe we should actually just do our no-lynch today?

[Xine]

sorry to disappoint you Llamarble. I am here, finally.

If people don't agree with me, I'll probably actually go back and make a case on this

I would be honored if you would

I didn't actually find much new and interesting beyond what I posted before, which I'll repeat here:
1.Oso and Xine have showed some teamwork; both of them went after me yesterday with similar cases.
2.Xine pointed out that Oso's wagon wasn't bothering him in a way that made it sound like she was trying to set him up as innocent.
3.Xine went after Antihero for similar behavior to Oso's and has largely ignored suspicion directed at Oso.
4.Xine's "look at him defending himself, he's totally scum" post sounded like evil cackling to me.

And I'll repeat it, yet again...
I see that Oso bambozzled me pretty well. in addition to that,
1.ah yes, the case over contradictions. I don't see any reason to not question apparent contradictions, do you?
2.post # 36, If I recall correctly, you looked really bad, launching a self defense crusade when you had one vote on you.
3.Scum seemed less likely to hammer, slightly. I presented a vote count, I made a gut read based on presentation, invited the town to consider said information with me, and I think the question I presented help you put the pieces together while I disappeared into RL for a few days
4.

You are really upset about this vote. I made a gut move, based on the impression I got from viewing some data. you only need to fear this if you are guilty, right?

is what I said. when I was the only one voting him, and almost no support for his wagon. who would cackle at that point? This was actually a question, note the question mark...?...I have learned enough about this game to not expect my questions to be answered, but it was decidedly an invitation to answer.

[Xine]

one more thing? Llamarble, did you just ask me to claim at L-3?

[Llamarble]

@Xine:
I do think we should claim earlier than normal since if the scum have some kind of quicklynch signal players can get quicklynched from L-2 (assumes 2 scum are left) to end the game. That said I don't think you should claim at L - 3 unless a enough players to lynch you have expressed readiness to vote.

Equinox / Ice's tones made me feel like the plan was just to get on with lynching you, which I agreed with at the time but felt should not be done to hastily.

I do want you to tell me who you think is scum and why.

[ICEninja]

I'm not rushing for the lynch, I just feel confident that my vote is on scum right now. I do want to see today played out, especially so we can better know where to move in to day 4.

Llama if you are unsure that Xine is the last scum, who else do you think is a good contender to be scum? Before being hesitant about lynching her, let us know what the next best lynch options are and why.

[Equinox]

Thread needs moar Netopalis.

3.Scum seemed less likely to hammer, slightly. I presented a vote count, I made a gut read based on presentation, invited the town to consider said information with me, and I think the question I presented help you put the pieces together while I disappeared into RL for a few days

I have question about that case you made against Antihero. Did you read 253 before disappearing?

I do think we should claim earlier than normal since if the scum have some kind of quicklynch signal players can get quicklynched from L-2 (assumes 2 scum are left) to end the game. That said I don't think you should claim at L - 3 unless a enough players to lynch you have expressed readiness to vote.

I've got a question for you, Llamarble. How confident are you in your read of Xine?

---

Okay. AGar's response has reconciled the contradicting thoughts I had this morning. In the interest of getting something else done, however, I won't reveal what those thoughts were until we're done with this:

I propose a mass claim.

I feel that if I explain, I will ruin this, so please bear with me until it's over.

Popcorn style would be good, and if at all possible, I want this to start with Llamarble.

[ICEninja]

I propose a mass claim.

I feel that if I explain, I will ruin this, so please bear with me until it's over.

I fully support this.

[Llamarble]

The two players I've trusted most so far agree we should massclaim.
I really don't see the reason though.
If another player other than Xine agrees then that's probably at least two townies agreeing and I'll obey (and go first, since Equinox wants that for some reason which I'd also like an explanation for afterward) despite my confusion.

@Equinox:
Sorry if I confused you;
My stance on Xine is that I'm still moderately confident in my scumread on her. I don't have a better candidate right now.
She was one of the two players not on the Oso lynch, the other being netopalis.
She also kind of ignored the Oso lynch while it was happening.
I forgot about that while reading her in ISO.
I came into today thinking Oso scum implied Xine scum almost certainly, so I was okay with lynching her despite it usually being optimal in Mylo for town to no-lynch simply to get better odds the next day, and I'm no longer as sure that's what we should do.

[ICEninja]

I came into today thinking Oso scum implied Xine scum almost certainly, so I was okay with lynching her despite it usually being optimal in Mylo for town to no-lynch simply to get better odds the next day, and I'm no longer as sure that's what we should do.

The reason it is optimal to no-lynch in mylo is you have statistically better chances of hitting scum in lylo because 1 extra townie is dead. However, there are a few things to consider.
Firstly, I think we probably have a vig. This has 2 implications:
1)If we hit scum today, the vig can shoot tonight. Knowing himself to be town, he will have a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, and a 1/3 chance of shooting the same townie that scum kills, thus resulting in no extra loss. 2 townies dying after successfully lynching scum puts town in a fairly strong lylo position. If the vig hits, town auto wins.
2)If we mislynch tonight, having a vig means we can possibly survive. If the vig shoots after having lynched a townie, he has a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and thus saving town from being end gamed.

If we truly do have a vig, even if we lynch randomly today and the vig shoots randomly tonight, odds are looking pretty good for us. Only 1 scum has to die in order for us to survive until the next day, and a random lynch plus a random vig shot gives us a 70% chance of killing at least one scum and thus surviving to day 4.

Giving scum a night kill on us takes this opportunity away from us because even if vig shoots scum at night, mislynching in lylo still results in a loss.

This all hinges on us actually having the vig that I think we do, but only the mass claim will tell, yes? That is why I support it. With natural action resolution, vig and mafia shoot at the same time so even if vig claims today and gets NKed tonight, the kill will go off. Should we give the scum the night kill, we'll have a 40%

[ICEninja]

*EBWOP

I accidentally hit submit before i was finished.

Should we give the scum the night kill, we'll have a 40% chance to survive to day 5 by lynching randomly. I'd say that 70% compared to 40% is definitely what we want to do.

[Llamarble]

It sounds like everyone RCing only helps us if we have a vig who can shoot tonight.
So maybe we should say "Any vig with a shot left should claim"
And if nobody does then we no-lynch?

[Equinox]

It sounds like everyone RCing only helps us if we have a vig who can shoot tonight.
So maybe we should say "Any vig with a shot left should claim"
And if nobody does then we no-lynch?

If the vig is one-shot, I would think s/he would have claimed by now to give us an extra clear.

I strongly object to No Lynch today. You're going to be playing into scum's hands if you do that.

[ICEninja]

Mod, is a prod due for Net?

[Llamarble]

Where are Net and M=W?

@Equinox
I don't see why a 1shot vig would have claimed yesterday or today.
We would just no lynch, the scum would kill them, and we'd be no better off.
Is there any reason we should massclaim even if we don't have a vig with shots left?
If not I don't see any reason to avoid the "Vig-claims-first" approach I proposed.

[Equinox]

Yes, there are reasons for the mass claim and for the method I am proposing. I've also stated that I am not going to elaborate on those reasons until it's over. Just carry on with it, please. The molasses thing gets old pretty quickly.

I saw Netopalis log in yesterday afternoon, and his profile says he's logged on this morning, too. He hasn't posted in either of his games. Don't know about Me=Weird, who hasn't posted since Friday.

[ICEninja]

Mod, I forgot about M=W. Can a prod be sent to him some time soon as well?

[Llamarble]

Okay, fine.
I trust you enough to proceed without understanding.

Role:
Town One-Shot Vigilante

I shot Shattered night 1.
I took that action because I
1. Thought he was scum
2. Thought he was the most likely lynch regardless and wanted to give the town a chance to hit someone else with a bit more information available.
3. Thought that waiting longer would increase the chances me dying before shooting or of a scum PR (i.e. Zinive roleblocker) interfering with my kill.
4. Thought my action could give us more information about Zinive's alignment. If he claimed to target Shattered and my kill failed I'd have reason to believe him.

At the time, I thought these pros outweighed the con of higher hit probability from a later shot.
I looked around for a guide on how to play 1shotvig but couldn't find one, so I did what seemed logical.
Now that I see how useful my shot could be here I'm not so sure that was the right play.

I hadn't claimed before today because I thought we might get to a 3 player situation where I claim and scum did or didn't counterclaim.
Either way that would leave one townie certain who the scum is (me if they counterclaimed, the other town player if they don't), which is better than either townie being able to get it wrong and lose the game for the town.
I figured claiming yesterday would just make us no-lynch and the scum kill me, not really improving our position.
The same is true today, hence my "but what if there's no vig with a shot left" posts.

[ICEninja]

I buy the claim. Would anyone like to counterclaim before I assume Llama is more or less confirmed town? If no counterclaim comes forth, Llama needs to decide who is next in line to claim.

[Me=Weird]

I'm here. Of course 2 of my busiest days of the month would be right after day starts. I'll have a post up tomorrow.