Open 258 --- Night Watch --- Game Over

[andrew94]

whats the chance that they kill one of the watchers

2/9.

like i said, if the watchers fcking watched me last night like they were supposed to, they can totally not follow this plan.
they can work out who each other are already, following the number plan, the lower number watch me, and the higher number watch nameloc or someshit

[Empking]

2/9 is too high just for one dead scum (IMO)

Vote: Dryfit

- I don't like his interactions (or lack of it) with Hop and the Hop wagon.

[ooBAZZoo]

How did you work out it was 2/9? As far as I'm aware, there are 10 players remaining, two of which are the scum themselves, which leaves 8. But then we should assume that scum have no reason to doubt your cop claim, or nameloc's hider claim (assuming they did actually target nameloc and fail), which means there are only 6 players who could possibly be watchers, making it 2/6 (or 1/3).

I agree that Dryfit's play D1 reads scum. He appears to bus Joystick slightly when it appears that Joystick is definitely going to be our lynch, but never really commits to and accusation, or a vote. I'm gonna do a re-read of everyone though, and give Dryfit a chance to post. Since he was so inactive (only posted 5 times) I get the feeling he might be replaced; if not, he needs to stop lurking.

FoS: Dryfit

[nameloc1986]

How did you work out it was 2/9? As far as I'm aware, there are 10 players remaining, two of which are the scum themselves, which leaves 8. But then we should assume that scum have no reason to doubt your cop claim, or nameloc's hider claim (assuming they did actually target nameloc and fail), which means there are only 6 players who could possibly be watchers, making it 2/6 (or

1/3

).

Actually it's even higher than that. If Andrew reveals the "vanilla" player and we lynch him as his "plan" suggests, then it will be 2/5 prob if that person is NOT scum (40%). We can't afford to help the scum snipe the watchers so Andrew please DON'T reveal who you targeted.

[Empking]

Actually I like Andrew's lynch the vanilla plan.

As a second point of order has anybody thought about getting the watchers to claim. Get them to agree to protect Andrew (2/5) of the each and the other watch (3/5) then we'll be able to have all of our three vulnerable PR's protected (more if our hider hides behind one of them.) If we do go that route then obviously Andrew shouldn't claim his result yet (use it to disagree with a false claim.)

[nameloc1986]

Yeah, but then the watchers will be exposed themselves. There are only 2 watchers and 4 PRs (2 watchers + 1 hider + 1 RC).

Look there's a good chance that the watchers know each other already. I say we just go through the day like normal and we try and lynch someone we think is scum. If someone tries to claim watcher, then all we have to do is get that watcher to watch Andrew, I'll hide behind the "claimed" watcher and the "unclaimed" watcher will watch the "claimed" watcher. My death will expose the "claimed" watcher as scum and Andrew will live another day. So if someone claims watcher, then we can be pretty sure they're telling the truth. Plus it may only take one CC to disprove someone as watcher (if the watchers know each other). Whatever we do, if we put someone at L-1 and they claim townie we need to lynch them anyway. If we disband the bandwagon on them and force someone else to claim, we'll help the scum at watcher sniping.

But let's stop worrying about "plans" that AREN'T foolproof and actually do some old fashion scum hunt.

[Empking]

Yeah, but then the watchers will be exposed themselves. .

They won't because they also have a 60% chance of being watched as opposed to the 50% chance of just being killed randomly.

Nameloc, is shotty your main suspect?

[jasonT1981]

Will hopefully be on to comment later, have a pounding headache and next door having a drill going non stop does not help.

[curiouskarmadog]

empking is scum becos joystick wants to replace him

how do you know joysticks wants to replace him? EDIT, nevermind, emp is cleared, so your thoughts on this now?

Name is “cleared” claiming hider, who hid behind empking who is also cleared…Andrew is “cleared” being an uncountered cop.

if not, this is the plan. tonight, nameloc hide behind me 2 watchers both watch me

this is not a good plan and is assuming a lot.

I agree with Empking (the only fucking time you will ever hear me say this)…the watchers should claim and (andrew’s) vanillas should be lynched..

Right now we have 10 players left…

Emp (“hid behind”), Andrew (not countered cop), and name (not countered hider) are semi cleared…

That leaves 7, assuming that the 2 watchers are not Emp if they claim, that will leave 5 vanilla (also assuming that scum will out fake claim)…

If we kill a “vanilla” every night…we win…..

Look there's a good chance that the watchers know each other already. I say we just go through the day like normal and we try and lynch someone we think is scum.

this is a good point too....ok, scratch the first...I think the watchers should claim if we get ready to lynch someone and that person claims watcher.

---
That being said,

Vote Antihero.

1.) tried to derail the hop wagon yesterday with….saying that Andrew claimed he was lying (which I don’t recall seeing). Name called him out on this and he quickly changed his vote back. But even before that, he was trying to discredit Andrew (257) saying that “vanilla” is against what the mod said. This was well before he “thought Andrew admitted to lying”.

2.) misrepresented me in the game…”you are playing under the radar” when indeed I was busy (RL) and couldn’t post….he should have known this because I had to do the exact samething in another game we share…OORR, he could have easily checked my past posts to see if I was active in other games…he chose to push my lynch (based on no scum hunting at all) over the hop lynch.

[nameloc1986]

Nameloc, is shotty your main suspect?

TBH, not really but I don't know who my main suspect would be. Shotty I've noticed has a bad case of saying something before he thinks it through and is famous for referring to something as a gambit when it really was just him being stupid. I actually get more of a town read than a scum read from him TBH. That said, when I look back at my FOS from earlier, I think it was just him not thinking it through. I called bullshit on him for what he replied back with. I think he was trying to keep himself looking stupid. I don't completely rule him out either though.

My current gut feelings: BAZZ &

Antihero

are town & Jason & maybe Zdenek are scum.

P. Edit: hmmmmm.......you actually bring up good points about Antihero....this may need some looking into...

[nameloc1986]

Lurkers, come out wherever you are and comment on what's taken place so far this day.

[Dry-fit]

As far as the role/nightaction speculation goes, I agree with what name said in post 430.

The fact that dry-fit never got a vote out yesterday also bothers me a bit...

I unvoted because my previous vote had been on andrew (all but confirmed role cop) and I didn't vote hop because I wanted to give 2k3 a chance to post.

Lurkers, come out wherever you are and comment on what's taken place so far this day.

It hadn't even been twelve hours since the thread opened

I don't have time now but should be able to do some isos and give suspects in a few hours.

[Antihero]

whats the chance that they kill one of the watchers

2/9.

No

9 players - you - the hider (loc) - 2 scum = 5

2/5

CKD, I corrected myself when I said I thought andrew was lying. I even said in the post why I thought that.
Also, I said a million times, the number of posts didn't bother me; it was the active lurkerish style of the posts.

[curiouskarmadog]

active lurking HOW?...and you were countering the Hop wagon and Andrew's claim well before you "thought" he was lying..dont backtrack.

[Antihero]

Yeah, I didn't know whether or not to believe andrew's claim, so what? With jason advertising the fact that andrew has an aweful track record with fakeclaiming as town, I'm surprised more people didn't question the claim.

Well, let's go back to this gem.

Everything is either a) stuff echoed from other players or b) a crappy jab at shotty

[andrew94]

that looks like bussing aye

[Zdenek]

I do not like Shotty's erratic play, and almost constant rolefishing. However, most of it was pointless questioning of Joystick.

I still don't like CKD's play from yesterday, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was busing Joystick. I also don't think his his case on Antihero holds much water: I don't think doubting Andrew a bit was the worst thing someone could have done, and Antihero hardly pushed CKD's lynch over Joystick's. However, I want to do a more careful read through with the new information in mind before passing judgement.

I am still thinking about all of the schemes that have been presented. I don't have a well formed opinion on them yet, but I guess at the moment I am opposed to them. I've mostly just looked at how they might obviously fail, and not much on what we could do to avoid it. Nameloc's comment makes the most sense: if scum claim watcher, we have a method to determine it they are telling the truth, and we should lynch scummy players who claim vanilla.

[andrew94]

dude, as if anyone would fakeclaim watcher now

[drmyshottyizsik]

i admit I was role fishing but with a pro town reason

[nameloc1986]

i admit I was role fishing but with a pro town reason

which is?

[drmyshottyizsik]

i admit I was role fishing but with a pro town reason

which is?

let's leave it at that for now please

[andrew94]

i know who you are, stop bs'ing

[Antihero]

VOTE: shotty

[drmyshottyizsik]

vote antihero

if you dont get what I'm hinting at then you are dumb

[Antihero]

I get exactly what you're hinting at.

And andrew exposed you, scum.