Llama wrote:
I came into today thinking Oso scum implied Xine scum almost certainly, so I was okay with lynching her despite it usually being optimal in Mylo for town to no-lynch simply to get better odds the next day, and I'm no longer as sure that's what we should do.
The reason it is optimal to no-lynch in mylo is you have statistically better chances of hitting scum in lylo because 1 extra townie is dead. However, there are a few things to consider.
Firstly, I think we probably have a vig. This has 2 implications:
1)If we hit scum today, the vig can shoot tonight. Knowing himself to be town, he will have a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, and a 1/3 chance of shooting the same townie that scum kills, thus resulting in no extra loss. 2 townies dying after successfully lynching scum puts town in a fairly strong lylo position. If the vig hits, town auto wins.
2)If we mislynch tonight, having a vig means we can possibly survive. If the vig shoots after having lynched a townie, he has a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and thus saving town from being end gamed.
If we truly do have a vig, even if we lynch randomly today and the vig shoots randomly tonight, odds are looking pretty good for us. Only 1 scum has to die in order for us to survive until the next day, and a random lynch plus a random vig shot gives us a 70% chance of killing at least one scum and thus surviving to day 4.
Giving scum a night kill on us takes this opportunity away from us because even if vig shoots scum at night, mislynching in lylo still results in a loss.
This all hinges on us actually having the vig that I think we do, but only the mass claim will tell, yes? That is why I support it. With natural action resolution, vig and mafia shoot at the same time so even if vig claims today and gets NKed tonight, the kill will go off. Should we give the scum the night kill, we'll have a 40%