Mafia 119: MURDER AT HOTEL DEATH(GAME OVER)

[lewarcher82]

If there is a night that makes one of us (vollkan and me) more likely to be scum, it is that night. The fact that we JK'ed a vig and the scum killed the tracker instead, is pretty bad. I'd think they'd fear a vig much more than a tracker, so the tracker dying instead is curious. Does anyone disagree with this?

I'd normally agree, but then we have to explain the kill of Jack last night. There was no suggestion that Jack had a power of any sort, making him an even less likely death than silver. So I'm not sure what is going on.

I do not understand the connection, vollkan. LMP is referring to n3, not n4. So how is your comment an answer to the post you quote?

@LMP: I naturally agree, n3 is a problematic night. How did you decide to jail me instead of the tracker? Who proposed it in the first place? Why did the other jailer agree? Where you both convinced that I am not scum? If so, why? I would like you both to answer extensively describing the events of that night. Quoting is forbidden, I guess, but a paraphrasis will do.

[LimMePls]

Vollkan wanted to JK CKD, but was worried that CKD was a two shot and we shouldn't stop him. I said that it was 1-shot, and that he could confirm by looking at the flip, but that I didn't like JK on CKD because I was beginning to think that CKD was scum (at the time we'd decided that using the JK as a doc was better than trying to stop a kill). Vollkan asks me what makes me think CKD is scum. I respond by saying essentially "gut", that I'm uncomfortable with the way that he claimed D1 to keep his partner from killing him (if he was scum) and taking the ability for themself, and then that is exactly what happened, but in reverse. This followed by him killing DemonHybrid (which I still say is a terrible kill that doesn't make sense as town) made me really cautious about him. And I expressed so in the thread (something to the effect of "no one should be calling anyone 'confirmed town'").

Anyways, back to the discussion, Vollkan then says that since CKD has no power (since he was a 1-shot) and the only town killing role (Pom) says she thinks he is town, he is still a good block because scum could still want to kill him. That or, we should continue protecting one of ourselves, although he didn't think we were likely to be targeted for NK since we hadn't claimed.

I then said that I disagreed that we wouldn't be likely NK targets, since we're both pretty pro-town players and scum do go for kills on good pro-town players, but I pointed out that I thought the scum would most likely shoot Pom (or rather Pom's replacement), and I asked if sacrificing Pom was worth it to let Pom's slot get 1 more kill, or if we should JK the slot and hope to stop the scum kill at the cost of the vig shot. I then said that if he really thought CKD was the optimal play, I would back him, but I felt like CKD (if town) was very unlikely to be the scum NK target. I then observe that there is a claimed tracker as well, so it seems really unlikely the scum would go for CKD.

Vollkan then says that since Pom's slot is getting a replacement, the opportunity cost of the vig that night (since the replacement would be new to the game and may not be able to make an optimal shot) is lower, and that he would be happy with a lewarcher (at this point lew had been announced as replacing) JK. He goes on to say that he still thinks that if it were between JKing one of us and CKD, CKD would be the better protect.

I then post and say I'm fine with a lewarcher JK.

Vollkan, please post if you disagree with any of the characterization of what I just posted, since I couldn't quote it directly.

[vollkan]

@Vollkan, I hear lots of stories about how you are an awesome town player. Can you point me to some original cases you made this game against scum players? Everything I see is you joining other people's cases. As for my unvote, obviously I'm not ready for a lynch to happen, and with this few players in the game, leaving votes out can be very bad.

1) Open my ISO.
2) Press Ctrl+F
3) Type "+"

The vast majority of my cases against people are my own; though, of course, I've also agreed with points made by others.

What I think you are seeing as missing is the absence of any posts structured like this:

Vollkan's Read of X

Quote from X

This is scummy because...

Quote from X

This is scummy because...
etc.

Accordingly, I Vote: X. He is scum

But look through my recent town games and you'll see I don't make those sorts of posts. I use my points system and essentially make my cases on everybody as I go along. And, if you Ctrl+F my ISO for "+", you will see that the vast majority of attacks I have made against people are my own.

If there is a night that makes one of us (vollkan and me) more likely to be scum, it is that night. The fact that we JK'ed a vig and the scum killed the tracker instead, is pretty bad. I'd think they'd fear a vig much more than a tracker, so the tracker dying instead is curious. Does anyone disagree with this?

I'd normally agree, but then we have to explain the kill of Jack last night. There was no suggestion that Jack had a power of any sort, making him an even less likely death than silver. So I'm not sure what is going on.

I do not understand the connection, vollkan. LMP is referring to n3, not n4. So how is your comment an answer to the post you quote?

In a nutshell: that the result of N4 invalidates the argument that LMP is making in respect of N3.

To elaborate:

The argument he is making in respect of N3 is essentially:

On N3, scum chose to kill a tracker over a vig. This is weird because a vig is more dangerous than a tracker. Therefore, this suggests inside knowledge that the vig would be protected.

However, the following can then be said of N4:

On N4, scum chose to kill an unclaimed* over a vig. This is really weird because a vig is way more dangerous than a vanilla. Therefore, this...makes no sense

The reasoning on each of these two evenings is inconsistent. Both N3 and N4 were very strange choices for scum, but LMP is ignoring the fact that N4 was even more strange (ie. tracker over vig isn't manifestly absurd; but unclaimed over vig is) and instead using N3 as an argument for me being scum. If the vig is really that great a threat to scum that it casts suspicion on me, then it should have been targeted on N4.

I stress that the above is not an argument for lew being scum, since everybody knows the wifomic nature of the argument that "because a power role hasn't died, they must be scum". My point is simply that the reasoning that LMP is using is inconsistent.

[vollkan]

Vollkan, please post if you disagree with any of the characterization of what I just posted, since I couldn't quote it directly.

This isn't really a point of disagreement so much as elaboration:

He goes on to say that he still thinks that if it were between JKing one of us and CKD, CKD would be the better protect.

As I said in our QT, the reason for this was that, if CKD was town, he was a likely NK target and thus worth protecting and, if he was scum, then there was obvious benefit in potentially blocking him.

[RedCoyote]

Vote Count

evilpacman18(0) -
curiouskarmadog(0) -

LynchMePls(1)

- a2rudeboy

vollkan(1)

- evilpacman18

a2rudeboy(1)

- curiouskarmadog
lewarcher82(0) -

Not Voting(3)

- volkkan, lewarcher82, LynchMePls

With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch

Deadline: December 5th, 2010, 1:30 AM, Central Standard Time

[lewarcher82]

there is a chance we can get some results if we looked at n3 from a different perspective.

step 1: from my point of view, knowing my alignment is town, and from the point fo view of anyone who believes I am town, n4 can only be explained by the fact that mafia must have believed that Jack was a PR. This is very likely (I ddi believe he was, for instance), because of his posts regarding "inside information" on silver's restrictions.

step 2: killing a claimed tracker was a risky move for scum. In fact, even though the jailers had not claim, scum could not easily assume that town had no protective roles. A doc would have been enough to stop their kill. It was a risk, still they took that risk anyway, and they succeeded.

step 3: wouldn't it be more likely for scum to attack a PR if they knew that this PR was not protected? Knowing that there were jailers, would have made a town doc unlikely to exist, and knowing that jailers were jking vig and not tracker would have meant that scum could safely target the tracker.

Looking at things from this point of view, the idea that one of the jailers may be scum becomes very attractive. I find LMP townier than vollkan, as I already said. Moreover, according to the report by LMP, which was not contraddicted by vollkan, it was vollkan who:
1) first suggested to jk me;
2) seemed pretty sure jailers would not die.

vote:vollkan

I am very interested in reading the reaction by vollkan and pacman (and not only because he is voting vollkan; I will explain later). There was an earthquake in my scum-to-town list: post 1248 is not up-to-date anymore.

[vollkan]

step 1: from my point of view,

knowing my alignment is town, and from the point fo view of anyone who believes I am town,

n4 can only be explained by the fact that mafia must have believed that Jack was a PR. This is very likely (I ddi believe he was, for instance), because of his posts regarding "inside information" on silver's restrictions.

The above post (not just the underlined, I'll get to that below) just doesn't make sense. Jack hadn't claimed a power role and, while it is still unclear what his "information" was, nobody apart from silver has appeared to have a PR, so the notion that scum would have felt more threatened by Jack than yourself is highly implausible. Your argument rests on two very weak assumptions:
1) That scum would think that having information made it more likely that Jack had another power; and
2) That scum would perceive that power as being more of a threat than your vigilante power. This isn't a theme game so there aren't going to be any crazy/bastard roles, so I'm curious as to what you think scum would have believed Jack's role to be that would have been so dangerous as to justify them choosing the scum over you.

This, again, is why LMP’s argument makes no sense (the reason I am bringing this up again will become clear later on in my post, at the bit where I talk about the "real issue"). In respect of N3 he is saying that the choice of tracker over vig is so inexplicable that it suggests scum had inside knowledge that the vig would be protected. However, on N4 when, on LMP’s argument, scum should have had inside knowledge that the vig was not protected, the scum instead chose to kill Jack, who not only couldn’t possibly be seen as more threatening to scum than a vig but, moreover, was objectively far less threatening than a tracker.

I'm also not sure why you included the underlined. What people think of your alignment is absolutely irrelevant to the argument I am making. My point is simply that, regardless of your alignment, the NK results aren't evidence against LMP or myself.

step 2: killing a claimed tracker was a risky move for scum. In fact, even though the jailers had not claim, scum could not easily assume that town had no protective roles. A doc would have been enough to stop their kill. It was a risk, still they took that risk anyway, and they succeeded.

step 3: wouldn't it be more likely for scum to attack a PR if they knew that this PR was not protected? Knowing that there were jailers, would have made a town doc unlikely to exist, and knowing that jailers were jking vig and not tracker would have meant that scum could safely target the tracker.

Scum routinely kill power roles even if there is the risk of a protective role existing. It’s always a risk, and I don’t think you can seriously argue that it is scummy in this particular game when the risk is taken all the time by scum (and, don’t forget, that they were able to kill power roles on Nights 1 and 2 which, if anything, would have made them less likely to think that there were protective roles).

In short, the real issue is whether the fact that silver was chosen rather than you is scummy (LMP’s argument). But, as I indicated under Step 1, that argument is untenable for its own reasons.

Looking at things from this point of view, the idea that one of the jailers may be scum becomes very attractive. I find LMP townier than vollkan, as I already said. Moreover, according to the report by LMP, which was not contraddicted by vollkan, it was vollkan who:
1) first suggested to jk me;
2) seemed pretty sure jailers would not die.

On point 1):

That’s

absolutely wrong

. Quoting from LMP’s very own report-

Anyways, back to the discussion, Vollkan then says that since CKD has no power (since he was a 1-shot) and the only town killing role (Pom) says she thinks he is town, he is still a good block because scum could still want to kill him. That or, we should continue protecting one of ourselves, although he didn't think we were likely to be targeted for NK since we hadn't claimed.

I then said that I disagreed that we wouldn't be likely NK targets, since we're both pretty pro-town players and scum do go for kills on good pro-town players,

but I pointed out that I thought the scum would most likely shoot Pom (or rather Pom's replacement), and I asked if sacrificing Pom was worth it to let Pom's slot get 1 more kill, or if we should JK the slot and hope to stop the scum kill at the cost of the vig shot.

I then said that if he really thought CKD was the optimal play, I would back him, but I felt like CKD (if town) was very unlikely to be the scum NK target. I then observe that there is a claimed tracker as well, so it seems really unlikely the scum would go for CKD.

Vollkan then says that since Pom's slot is getting a replacement, the opportunity cost of the vig that night (since the replacement would be new to the game and may not be able to make an optimal shot) is lower, and that he would be happy with a lewarcher (at this point lew had been announced as replacing) JK. He goes on to say that he still thinks that if it were between JKing one of us and CKD, CKD would be the better protect.

As is very clearly shown in that report, I advocated either targeting CKD or ourselves (in the first paragraph quoted).

LMP

then raised the suggestion of JKing you. I then agreed. To paraphrase more closely, in the same QT post as where he said the bolded, LMP then said: (paraphrasing)

If you believe CKD is best, then I’ll go along with you. But I think that you, or me, or Pom are better choices

. As LMP says, in my next post I agreed with the reasoning for JKing Pom.

On point 2)

: I think this assumption was justified. Scum typically prioritise roles over player skills, and the choice of NKs thus far had perfectly reflected that so I had absolutely no reason for thinking it was likely that we'd be targeted.

[vollkan]

@LMP:

As is very clearly shown in that report, I advocated either targeting CKD or ourselves (in the first paragraph quoted). LMP then raised the suggestion of JKing you. I then agreed. To paraphrase more closely, in the same QT post as where he said the bolded, LMP then said: (paraphrasing) If you believe CKD is best, then I’ll go along with you. But I think that you, or me, or Pom are better choices. As LMP says, in my next post I agreed with the reasoning for JKing Pom.

I'd also point out that, if the priority for scum was getting rid of lewarcher as your argument rests upon, then vollkan-scum's acceptance of your proposal to JK lewarcher rather than CKD makes no sense.

[vollkan]

Final post, I promise.

I just thought of a useful analogy that might better illustrate my problem with the N3/N4 argument:

Country X and Country Y are at war. X has 10 nuclear missile bases (numbered B1 to B10). X also has an anti-missile defence system (MDS) able to protect 1 base at a time. Only Mr Smith, a defence specialist of X, knows which base is protected by MDS.

In June 2009, Smith decides to use the MDS to protect B1, In that same month, Y decides to make an attack on X's nuclear capabilities and decides to bomb B2, despite it being the second-best base.

In July, Smith becomes fearful that there may be enemy agents working in B10, so he decides to travel to B10 and personally investigate its staff, leaving no base protected. That same month, Y decides to launch another attack, this time bombing B6, a mediocre base, of far less strategic value than B1.

In August, the media learn the background to the June attack. Smith is accused of being a traitor, on the basis that it makes no sense that Y would decide to target B2, an inferior base, over B1 - unless they knew that B1 was protected, which could only mean that Smith was guilty of treason.

Smith, fearing mob retribution, receives permission from The X Defence Department to go public with the information that, in July, Y destroyed B6, even though B1 was unprotected. In a press conference, Smith makes the point that if Y was being informed about the MDS's location and considered B1 a high-priority targeted, then they should have targeted B1 in July. As such, Smith argues, it makes no sense to hold Smith responsible for the June attack and, moreover, it appears that B1 is not considered a high-priority target.

[vollkan]

EBWOP: If it wasn't clear from the analogy, B1 is the strategically best base.

[lewarcher82]

unvote

oh, dear. I misread LMP's post and thought you were the very one who suggested to jail me. This does not invalidate the rest of my post and I would like the others to comment on what I have written there. But the biggest reason to assume that the supposed scummy jailer falls with my mistaken assumption he pushed for my jailing.

[vollkan]

unvote

oh, dear. I misread LMP's post and thought you were the very one who suggested to jail me. This does not invalidate the rest of my post and I would like the others to comment on what I have written there. But the biggest reason to assume that the supposed scummy jailer falls with my mistaken assumption he pushed for my jailing.

What is your position on the rebuttal I gave of the rest of your case?

[lewarcher82]

I am at work and lunch-break is over, so I cannot read all your posts right now. I apologise. I will read them tonight and give all my cooìmments. Right now I just saw the part in bold and realised I misread lmp.

[curiouskarmadog]

LMP, couple questions.

why do you keep saying you were uncomfortable about my day one claim? (I have only said 5 times)...look at it from my point of view...you and someone else have a power to kill someone...if you die, the power goes to that other person alone. if you dont tell anyone about it, then that person gets the kill and NO ONE WOULD KNOW ABOUT IT. Now, I came out and told you about it..so that way if there was another kill (ie my neighbor partner who might be scum) unaccounted for..someone would be accountable for it. ..

wouldnt it have been easy (as scum) to not say a fucking word...pop off my partner THEN use the kill?...no one being the wiser? also, LMP, do you remember who attacked me after the claim?...do you remember you tried to role fish, then denied they were doing it?

EXPLAIN TO ME EXACTLY HOW MY ACTION WAS SCUMMY.

also, when you told vollkan that you thought I was scummy because of your "gut" what was his reaction?..

[vollkan]

also, when you told vollkan that you thought I was scummy because of your "gut" what was his reaction?..

I grumbled as usual and expressed my disdain for gut play. On the specific issue of LMP's theory that you killed SS, which seemed to be the main driver of his gut, I said that there was too much WIFOM to make it a reliable basis for suspecting you, though obviously at face value it looks bad.

LMP then said he thought it was strange that I would say I don't like gut since he thought I'd made gut arguments...before actually reading my ISO and retracting that

After that I also made one of my standard theory rants against gut.

[curiouskarmadog]

well, was hoping LMP would answer...., but I guess he can confirm that.

vollkan and I differ on gut case..I know his (vollkan) disdain for the word "gut"....but my gut is usually pretty on....I also think our definition of what a gut case is is different...what I was looking for was to see if you let that "gut" statement go in the QT or if you gave him crap for it....was looking for a difference in your play when only one person could see you.

[curiouskarmadog]

also if we end today without a A2 lynch...I am going to be pissed.

a2rude, (in attempt to get some content)...you say we are tunneling on you...you have me at 2 on your scum list...explain why.

if you really felt LMP or myself was scum, why arent you pushing a case?..dont you want to catch scum?

[LimMePls]

unvote

oh, dear. I misread LMP's post and thought you were the very one who suggested to jail me. This does not invalidate the rest of my post and I would like the others to comment on what I have written there. But the biggest reason to assume that the supposed scummy jailer falls with my mistaken assumption he pushed for my jailing.

He did push for it, even though I was the one that first suggested it. And when I did, it was more arguing why CKD was a bad protect (there are other more likely kills than CKD) than arguing that we should protect you, which is evidenced by my pointing out in a follow up post that there is also a claimed tracker. He then made a post pointing out why jailing you was good.

This game makes my head want to explode. If I could invent a time travel machine, I would go back and tell myself not to replace into it.

I'm going to begin a reread of the game. Hopefully it'll turn up something as awesome when as when it turned up PD scum.

[LimMePls]

stopping during my reread to ask this question (I want an answer from everyone):

Do you believe lewarcher is town?

[LimMePls]

still reading, but I can't help but wondering if we're not just making this more difficult than it is. a2 and pacman may indeed be the remaining scum.

Do you believe lewarcher is town?

I still want a response to this from everyone.

[curiouskarmadog]

why is pacman (someone who has gotten to nil investigations of sorts) more likely scum than lets say lew, or vollkan.....or even me?

in reference to lew, I dont know....I question his decision not to kill, but again, if he killed and popped off town, I would question that too....if lew was scum with one of you (lmp and vollkan) I imagine he would not have been blocked...or come out the way he did (gambit aside) with his info....I am leaning town on him....

I think Pac is town....he is certianly not clear...but I think he is town..unless of course he is scum with one of the jailing twins...but he still has the track on his side.

I think A2 is probably scum.

if there is a second scum, I think it falls between you and vollkan....though I am not sure why the other partner would not have been offed yet.

I would be extremely pissed if you were scum together, but I really doubt that.

[LimMePls]

^^This makes me feel better about CKD. It's pretty logical. To answer your earlier question that I somehow missed (but just saw finishing my full reread) I don't have a problem with your claim D1, I have a problem with the fact that given your claim and its underlying fear (that scum-TNM/SS would kill you and steal the kill) that what ended up happening was the reverse of this (essentially SS Dying and you ending up with the sole kill). I would have been feeling a lot better about you if the two of you had come to some agreement and killed together N1. As you'll see in a minute, my reread post will contain a post where I ask you about this.

[LimMePls]

^^and that you chose to use the kill on DH, which (as I've stated a number of times before) I think was a really bad kill.

[LimMePls]

Hello.

(very quickly steps out of character) Apologies for the lurking/total disappearance. Without going into too much detail, something drastic occured IRL, could not post. But I used the extra long night phase to catch up.

(steps back)

Ahem.

I think Prana was coming off incredibly reasonable at the end of d1/

I do not like at all how quickly the train built up on NC, and while once the attention turned on him he definitely started acting scummy and flailing all over the god damn place, I still think the initial reasoning behind the beginning was flimsy at best. I am more concerned with Jack's overwhelmingly anti-town play at this point. There were the comments in the early stages of the game, his frantic desire to switch everyone from Espy -who we had seen him as acting buddylike with- now a confirmed scum, to NC which is now confirmed town. At one point he even outright stated that the game wasn't really providing any interest for him anymore.

@Jack- Why the incessant tunneling on NC, even before he started flailing? After the flips, how do you justify more or less single-handedly leading the town from a scumlynch to a mislynch? If you aren't scum, please tell me what actions you have taken that were pro-town?

vote: Jack

CoolDog I think at this point deserves a

HoS Cooldog

for things such as: posting at night, his constant "i'm going to be going, but.." posts, AtE overload. The biggest tell for me however, was the posting of the case after the hammer, especially considering how his case was just exact repetition of a previous case from someone else. I am unable to tell at this point if it's for sure a scumtell, or just stupid play.

@Cool- Why the need to constantly tell us you are leaving quickly when you post? Is it a reason to cover up for lack of content? Wouldn't it be more pro-town to wait until you had time to build a case and post? Explain why you justified the lynch after the hammer, without original reasoning? Explain how any of these actions were protown.

This post has praising of Prana, attacking Jack (who scum feared was some form of PR), plus the HOS on CoolDog, who was starting to build a wagon at this point. With current information this post looks like it comes from scum. (Full disclosure: On Day 3 I liked this post).

Do not touch CKD. He is fine. Scum is probably trying to frame him.

Or you're scum with him and are trying to throw us off the scent.

Also, all the neighbors are town? Possible sure, but to say it's probable?

I'm not happy with CKD personally, purely because he came out day 1 and revealed his role because he didn't trust his partner, and it's his partner who gets nobbled? Could easily have been a big ball of WIFOM from CKD to throw us off the scent. But as there's going to be more than one scum out there I'll look elsewhere for now.

Can I also say "I damned well told you so" in regards to Espy? Yeah, what was with the whole "he's not scum, we're lynching the completely stupid option of Nero" on day 1? Nero only became stupid (not scummy, just stupid) after pressure turned on him, and it's hard not to go a bit nuts when you have undue pressure on you from absolutely nothing. It was a terrible option for a lynch and how the hell it went through I have no idea when the scummiest player by about ten miles was Espy.

But then, following him very closely in the scummy stakes would be... Jack. The same guy who was making sure the Espy wagon was derailed in favour of a Nero one.

vote: Jack

I'd do an ISO on him, however it would be a massive waste of time as I can't remember him making a single useful post so far.

Interesting.

Continuing with scumpoints from yesterday:

Vote: Cooldog

. That said, I also want to do relational analysis of Espy, so this vote is somewhat contingent.

We're at 3 votes... that's L-5. Are we really in danger of a quicklynch?

At the moment: No.
If the wagon continued at it current pace: Yes.

I think you'll find that wagons tend to slow down as they reach the vicinity L-1 .

Unvote, Vote: a2rudeboy

This may go into complete mafia game theory territory, but I have never once

once

once

seen someone Vote/HoS two people in the same post and not be scum.

If Cooldog is scum, lynch a2. If a2 is scum, lynch Cooldog.

a2+5

I don't completley agree with you, though, DH.

There is certainly a tendency for scum to do the Vote/HoS combo. However, it's a weaker scumtell (+1/+2) in isolation. For me, the most important thing is his reasoning for putting a HoS on CoolDog:

for things such as: posting at night, his constant "i'm going to be going, but.." posts, AtE overload.

The biggest tell for me

however, was the posting of the case after the hammer, especially considering how his case was just exact repetition of a previous case from someone else.

I am unable to tell at this point if it's for sure a scumtell, or just stupid play.

None of those points are at all paticularly reflective of any actual analysis, and all but the vague "AtE overload" charge are only dubiously scummy at best. I can't see how they could justify a HoS. But then we get the "biggest tell" of repeating a case. Putting aside whether that really is a huge scumtell, a2 immediately proceeds to undercut this with his last sentence (bolded). In other words, he both thinks it is the "biggest scumtell" (among a handful of rather piddly 'scumtells', the aggregate of which apparently justifies a HoS), but is also uncertain about whether or not it is a scumtell.

So, having equally incredibly strong suspicions on two players after 24pgs is considered scummy now?

Quote for me please where somebody attacked you for 'having equally strong suspicions'?

This is good posting.

Wasn’t aware that the game opened yesterday..
SS was town huh?....yeah he kept making comments last night like “aren’t you going to feel stupid” last night.

We basically argued last night, neither of us trusted each other to even think about using there ability...though, I did ask him what he thought of CD and said he would be the only person I would consider using the power on.

I see that zwet and Pom used their ability last night on Esp?...curious, who came up with the suggestion first?

I'm not happy with CKD personally,

purely because he came out day 1 and revealed his role because he didn't trust his partner

, and it's his partner who gets nobbled? Could easily have been a big ball of WIFOM from CKD to throw us off the scent. But as there's going to be more than one scum out there I'll look elsewhere for now.

in reference to bolded...did I come out because i didnt trust my partner? or did I come out because I wanted everyone to have as much info as possible, especially IF my partner was scum. someone needed to be accountable for the kill...are you misrepresenting here, or simply misunderstanding my claim again? But lets play your game, so I am throwing a big ball of WIFOM to get your off my scent on page fucking 1?...you really are putting that forward? What scent were people tracking at that point?

I agree CD looks super scummy, but this wagon is really rocking and rolling pretty quick….

What is the rush?

Also CD, you had a question for me yesterday, but a.) completely ignored my post/questions and b.) didn’t get your answer….I thought it was important..why did you hammer if you still had a question outstanding?

Who did SS want to use the power on? Can you summarize what was discussed in the QT between you two that night?

vote:snakeplissken

vote: jack

vote: jack

This sequence of posts from start of D3 is funny/interesting. Jack votes Snake and a2rude and Prana both immediately vote him. One of these is confirmed scum.

Vote Curiouskarmadog

Why you ask? Well I watched him last night and he visited Demon who is now dead. Something says to me that he's up to no good. wouldn't you?

Some of you may scream WIFOM at this, but I see this as evidence that CKD is town. For one, the scum watcher targeted CKD (presumably to catch a protective role that might try to save the vig) and for another, if CKD was scum, there is no reason scum-Snake would have come out like this and tried to push his lynch. I don't see how there would have been enough gain to bus at this point.

I agree, however so far I'm wondering what the hell is going on, we have Jack making no attempt at actually playing the game, horrordude being useless, Pacman deciding that lynching scum is a second priority behind lynching someone when he dislikes their (exceptionally pro-town) playstyle, and thus far it's horrendously ridiculous. Throw in that Looker was being completely worthless and nonsensical yesterday, and it's like half the game don't even want to win.

At this stage, I want Jack or Pacman lynched, not only has Jack been acting worthless all game, but he and Esp were buddy buddy at the start of the game, and he's just being allowed to slide by being useless and scummy.

Pacman on the other hand has entered the game, and his first action is to push Vollkan for... well, nothing at all in actual fact, as his entire case is "I don't like his playstyle, policy lynch him". Absolute bullshit.

Another WIFOM heavy but interesting post from PD. Not sure if the buddying Vollkan is scum/town, and PD demonstrated at least some ability to bus (although IMO poorly) at the end of D1 in regards to Esp.

Who is a better vote? I'm not sure.
I don't think any of the neighbors (CKD, Lewarcher replacing Pom) are scummy spots as I've already said.
I believed LMP and Volkan's claim.
Pac apparaently can't be scum because of the mentioned reasons.
I'm town.

So, that would lead, I guess to LMP and Volkan. I haven't got anything less than from major town from volkan, but looking at his play style, it seems even if he was scum, he would be hard to catch in a slip up. I've had my doubts about LMP for parts of the game, a lot of it based on his overenthusiastic wish to get me lynched.

Seriously, this is our lynch today. "None of the neighbors are scum" ... "So that would lead, I guess to LMP and Volkan". ILLOGICAL, ILLOGICAL!

Based on my reread, and using PoE, I now think the only possible scum teams are:

a2rude/Pacman
a2rude/Vollkan
Vollkan/Pacman

I've pretty much reached the conclusion that Lew and CKD are town. I think today's lynch is a2rude.

Everyone please pay attention to this

: Tomorrow, if either of the JKs are dead, you cannot trust what the living JK claims the target was. I just want to make sure this is out there, so there is no confusion about it. If we're both alive, then of course we can use that information, since our role can only JK with both players consent (while we're both alive that is), but if either of us dies tonight, the other could be lying about who (if anyone) got JKed.

I'm going to work on a vote count analysis for the whole game, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to be voting a2rude today, the only other logical choices are Pacman (who was tracked one night and JK'ed one night) and Vollkan (who's only ding against him really is POE, his play has been really town), so they are clearly suboptimal to an a2rude lynch.

Also, I had mentioned earlier in the thread if anyone saw any way we could use our remaining powers to guarantee a win, and no one commented. I've been rolling it over in my head, and the nature of the split JK's makes this pretty much a non-starter. Still, if anyone thinks of something that I haven't, feel free to share.

I don't want to vote until we're ready to end the day, and I see no reason we should end the day now. I'll work on a complete game VC analysis.

[evilpacman18]

Final post, I promise.

I just thought of a useful analogy that might better illustrate my problem with the N3/N4 argument:

Country X and Country Y are at war. X has 10 nuclear missile bases (numbered B1 to B10). X also has an anti-missile defence system (MDS) able to protect 1 base at a time. Only Mr Smith, a defence specialist of X, knows which base is protected by MDS.

In June 2009, Smith decides to use the MDS to protect B1, In that same month, Y decides to make an attack on X's nuclear capabilities and decides to bomb B2, despite it being the second-best base.

In July, Smith becomes fearful that there may be enemy agents working in B10, so he decides to travel to B10 and personally investigate its staff, leaving no base protected. That same month, Y decides to launch another attack, this time bombing B6, a mediocre base, of far less strategic value than B1.

In August, the media learn the background to the June attack. Smith is accused of being a traitor, on the basis that it makes no sense that Y would decide to target B2, an inferior base, over B1 - unless they knew that B1 was protected, which could only mean that Smith was guilty of treason.

Smith, fearing mob retribution, receives permission from The X Defence Department to go public with the information that, in July, Y destroyed B6, even though B1 was unprotected. In a press conference, Smith makes the point that if Y was being informed about the MDS's location and considered B1 a high-priority targeted, then they should have targeted B1 in July. As such, Smith argues, it makes no sense to hold Smith responsible for the June attack and, moreover, it appears that B1 is not considered a high-priority target.

This makes no sense considering Y didn't know that Mr. Smith had the ability to protect any base. Unless he supplied that with that information and was, in fact, a traitor.