Open 260 - Tit For Tat - Game Over

[chesskid3]

I'll do my reread/read during thanksgiving break, probably tomorrow. Every time I try to read this game, my eyes glaze over by page 4, it's ridiculous.

Vote Count

Purple Orange (1) - implosion
smashbro_of_the_SSS (1) - lewarcher82

Not Voting (7) - Purple Orange, smashbro_of_the_SSS, ThAdmiral, Gonzoooo, mallowgeno, don_johnson, chesskid3

With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch. The deadline is set for the end of December 8th, PST.

[lewarcher82]

stop eating turkey and come back to the game, you yankees!

[implosion]

stop eating turkey and come back to the game, you yankees!

But it's so good...

And I'm still waiting on mallow and chesskid. As I think most of us are.

[chesskid3]

Welp, didn't happen today. Hopefully tomorrow. SORRY

[ThAdmiral]

And I'm still waiting on mallow and chesskid. As I think most of us are.

I'm waiting for smashbro, personally.

[Alduskkel]

mallowgeno has been prodded.

[Gonzoooo]

I'm not really waiting; I've just been busy. I think I am going to reread all of day one today or tomorrow to get some fresh perspective. I still want the lazy asses to get in here and post first, however. There's your deadline mallow and Smashbro. God help you if I reread the whole game and post before you do.

[mallowgeno]

/picking up prod

rereading. Will post later today.

[Purple Orange]

@purlpe: no, Smash was NOT right about the wagon on Zhero. I categorically reject this statement and I will keep rejecting it til endgame. There was perhaps 1 scum on the bw, but I do not think there were more than 1, and the reasons were genuine and the votes were only 4. Smash could be a smart townie who reached a correct conclusion following weak arguments or a scum player who had no idea that zhero was cop, but knew he was town and wanted to gain towncred by attacking the bw.

There were five votes on Zhero when Smash made his post about the speed of the wagon, and they'd occurred in the space of one page. No one except the mafia knew that wolf was town at the time, and for anyone who still thought he was scum, the wagon on Zhero looked like it could be a quick and opportunistic way for the mafia to maybe evade a lynch of one of their members.

Not going to argue with your scum interpretation of Smash's actions -- it's quite possible that's what he was doing. But the speed of the wagon got my radar up as well, regardless of whether the initial reasons for the votes were good.


Concerning votes and wagon itself:
The fact that everyone was on one of two competing town bandwagons isn't the most helpful scenario for identifying mafia. For one thing, wolf was probably going to be lynched anyway, so there was no absolute need for the mafia to start a second bandwagon. Moreover, I agree that Zhero's vote and accompanying reasoning was suspect. (I can elaborate why if you need me to -- just trying to decrease the length of this text wall). Because of that, I can't pinpoint any move over to him as suspiciously unjustified, except maybe sapo's. And she and wolf were the only people that stuck to their vote on Zhero...and they were not mafia.

The first two folks that moved over to Zhero (gonzoooo and Admiral) were previously on wolf, who was a pretty darn safe wagon for the mafia. Unless they suspected the wolf wagon might soon crumble, and wanted a backup plan, I can't see much reason for them to switch over if they were mafia.

#3 was lew, who moved from Gonzoooo. Gonzoooo and lew were the primary people discussing the reasoning for moving over. And I agree it was solid. (Admiral agreed with the case, and quoted the parts in particular that made him change his mind).

D_J came in fourth, and his post basically just said, "I agree with the guys above me." No quotes. He came off of the mallow wagon, which, until the Zhero mess, had been the secondary wagon. He later made a post urging people to finish pushing the wagon to L-1.

Fifth was wolf, also quoting and agreeing with the Gonzooo reasoning, though I think his vote was just basic self-preservation.

Sixth was sapo, after the roleclaim, for reasons that apparently had to do with not understanding the setup. She also came from the wolf wagon.

Don Jon is the person that, aside from sapo, I believe had the most questionable activity when it came to the Zhero wagon. But a) this is largely influenced by the fact that I suspect mallow to be scum. And b) because of Zhero's scummy vote, any vote on Zhero CAN be seen as completely justified.

tl;dr:

It caused a lot of ruckus and got a PR outed and killed, but the Zhero wagon isn't the best place to look if we're trying to identify mafia. (I unfortunately had to hack through it to realize this). I believe D_J's activity was the most suspect, but this isn't saying much.

[lewarcher82]

You speak of a bw on mallow, I fail to see it. He was never close to get lynched. He got 2 votes, dj's and yours.

also: my reading of mallow is "frustrated Vi" atm. I am waiting for him to post. And I keep waiting for smash, too.

the rest of purple's analysis is correct, but the conclusions are not conclusive. In that situation, scum would have probably tried to divide themselves on the 2 different wagons. We should wonder if some votes can be interpreted as scum trying to eliminate patterns (for instance X, Y and Z are scum on BW1, so Z moves to BW2)... I am not optimist about the results, but it's all I can think of right now.

[don_johnson]

i suggest a voting block of dj, thad, lew, and gonzo.

vote: smash

not sure why yet, but i will vote with the above block. they are my current town reads. the rest of you can hang. lew: if you want to switch to mallow you may.

[chesskid3]

>_< FML I think I just got kicked out of home.
Absolutely no time to do a reread today. If you guys want me to replace out I will, but I hopefully will have time to read this soon, I mean, It's only like 12 pages :/

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

sorry guys, had a busy weekend. will post later today.

[chesskid3]

Yeah no I'm sorry, I don't have time/desire to do this.

@Mod: replace please (sorry)

[Purple Orange]

You speak of a bw on mallow, I fail to see it. He was never close to get lynched. He got 2 votes, dj's and yours.

Point taken -- there's some pressure, but calling it a wagon was too strong.

Smash was on him for a while (he switched to wolf right after Don Jon added a third vote). Zhero accused and voted for mallow (pushing him up to three votes again), in the post that triggered the wagon on

him

. Implosion accuses mallow of scummy actions in 212, concurrent with Gonzoooo's vote on Zhero.

[lewarcher82]

You speak of a bw on mallow, I fail to see it. He was never close to get lynched. He got 2 votes, dj's and yours.

Point taken -- there's some pressure, but calling it a wagon was too strong.

Smash was on him for a while (he switched to wolf right after Don Jon added a third vote). Zhero accused and voted for mallow (pushing him up to three votes again), in the post that triggered the wagon on

him

. Implosion accuses mallow of scummy actions in 212, concurrent with Gonzoooo's vote on Zhero.

Thank you. I now had a closer look at smash's switch (#198). Interesting timing. Question is: are the reasons he gives for his vote on werewolf convincing?

[smashbro_of_the_SSS]

Now that it turns out he was town, I definitely believe that at least one scum jumped on that wagon quickly, and likely stayed on it, hoping to lynch the power role anyway.

Who do you think this might have been then?

My two main suspects from the wagon were don and werewolf. Lew could also be thrown in, but he has seemed more town to me than scum. Werewolf was interested in self preservation, and now that he's flipped town, it obviously wasn't him. don has seemed to join many popular wagons, without much of an explanation of "i agree with the voter above me." I could definitely see him as scum trying to look townish.


As for why I hadn't started to look through the wagon, was just because I'd had little time. I've been focusing on NaNoWriMo, considering that it's near the end of the November, and I want to finish.

Thank you. I now had a closer look at smash's switch (#198). Interesting timing.

At the time, only one other person had their vote on mallow, and I felt that my vote would be better used to pressure werewolf / still concentrate on one of my scum reads. When I say one, I mean the vote from PurpleOrange, although DJ had a vote on mallow also. DJ's votes go around so much, and with little justification that I tend to not put much stock in them.



--------------------------


now, as for the mallow wagon.

vote: mallowgeno

As for the case:



--- mallow follows DJ's vote, first saying that he agreed with DJ, and then taking it back, saying his vote was to humor him. I don't like the inconsistency, and backing down when people began to disagree with the vote and its seriousness.

--- his next few posts consist of saying that he thinks Consig is town, and not knowing about anyone else, despite having a bit of information to form opinions on. He buddies up with gonzoo in the post before, and agrees that Consig seems to be town, which seems to be as trying to get on the town's good side while providing little.

--- his next post asks if it was a lynch on consig, which I just find odd.

--- for a few pages, he says nothing, and when asked about explaining about Lew, he says:

When did I question your votes mallow? I only questioned your vote on me, which was first made without giving any reasons, and I was not the only one to note that. As you gave reasons, I unvoted you and moved on. So I am not sure what are the "votes" you are referring to. Can you please explain?

I was referring to the one time I voted you. I did explain after I voted. Since it was rvs I figured I didn't need to explain.

--- when he votes werewolf (putting werewolf to L-1), he gives no reason at all:

Why should he care what Don thought? Was there any reason for him to follow/humor Don over someone else?

Is there a reason why I should/shouldn't follow someone in the RVS? Get over that. As for werewolf, prematurely claiming is quite scummy. Even so, if you are a VT you take it until you are lynched (unless lylo/mylo).

vote werewolf

--- he refuses to give even a cursory read on another player when asked, and still gives no reason for the werewolf vote.

Hmm, I smell a bus.

Vote: mallowgeno

Mallow, what do you think of Lew?

Apparently whatever I say won't be taken seriously, therefore I refuse to answer. (oooo scummy)

--- as to the point above, he later says that Lew "could be town" but he is not 100% sure.

------------
in conclusion, Mallow has been no help to the town at all, and has, at times, voted opportunistically and with no explanation. Scummy actions.



that's all for tonight, but for the record, right now I'm also suspicious of DJ, and slightly of the powerrox/chesskid slot, but I haven't looked into that one much at all. Will have to reread to see what I see.

[Alduskkel]

vollkan replaces chesskid3.

[don_johnson]

sweet.

the idea behind a voting block is to put votes on someone. lets pick someone.

[vollkan]

Reading time.

For the unaware, I use a numerical points system to rank my suspicions. Each player starts at a score of 50 (on a 0 - 100 scale). Scumminess pushes it up. Towniness lowers it. It is uncommon for people to ever actually go below 50. So that I don't have to repeat this ad nauseum later, a score of 50 at the end of the proces does not mean "no opinion"; it means "neutral". Absent extrinsic factors (eg. claims, deadlines, etc.), I will always vote the highest scored player.

For the aware and unaware alike, I recently decided (and this is reflected across my ongoing games) to double-scale my points. Basically, I've become more skeptical about scumtells over time (and I'm extremely skeptical about almost any 'towntell'), which has meant that my scores have increasingly tended never to get above 65. As a result, I'm scaling points up, on the basis that it more accurately reflects seriousness.

For reference, something which would have previously gotten 2 or 3 now gets a 5. And a serious scumtell (eg. contradictions) now gets a 10.

40: @Don: provide meta evidence for the view you express here. Failing that,

Don+5

. The reasoning here is all over the place. First, the unsubstantiated assertion that scum try harder to look jokey in RVS. Second, Don points out, without taking it anywhere, that lew's vote was his "second" (*gasp*). And third, that the joke didn't work because consig had confirmed (so what? it's not like it was a serious vote, so why does an invalid premise matter. Finally, there's a reflexive use of the "It's RVS, lighten up" defence at the end, where he asks the rhetorical question "is it a "super serious not gonna ever change my vote no matter what happens" vote? i'll let you figure that one out." - this sort of thing is a mild scumtell because, rather than defending the validity of his argument, it rests on basically downplaying its significance.
73:

Smash+5

Recognsies that Consig seems confused, but then says, with absolutely no explanation, that it seems unlikely that he genuinely didn't realise Andrew was not in the game. This implies that Smash thinks it more likely that Consig faked the view that a player was in the game, and then felt it necessary to justify his fake vote.
85: Really dislike this.

lew+6

. I just finished a game with lewarcher (I was mafia, he was SK), which he won. He is a very clever player. In this post, he accepts, on the one hand, that Consig's mistake looks like a mistake but then proceeds to put him at L-3 and only jack up the pressure. While lew is correct insofar as the mistake does not prove consig is town, I find it beyond belief that lewarcher wouldn't realise that consig, whatever his alignment, is genuinely a newb/VI and, accordingly, the worst possible place to direct pressure.
87:

implosion+5

He shows patterned vapidness...and that's scummy?
88: Gonzo's 88 is win.
91: Ugh..werewolf's vote here is dreadful.
92; More win from Gonzo.
93: More badposting from lew. 1) is bad both because it fails to distinguish between wagons on decent players and wagons on VIs and because it spins the purpose of said wagons as being reactions, when any objective reader would see that that the Consig wagon was substantially a auspicion wagon and not simply a pressure one. 3)'s second point is correct, but it's irrelevant to the first, which is incorrect - especially in relation to low-hanging fruit like Consig.

lew+5

Will continue from start of p.5

[ThAdmiral]

vote: smashbro

I can't help but feel that mallow is a bit of a soft target, and that smash's case on him is to deflect attention away from himself.
I could be wrong, but that's what it feels like to me.

I also don't really get why he is not voting for his suspect on the zhero wagon, namely don, when he seems so sure at least one person on it was scum.

[ThAdmiral]

vote: smashbro

bold tag fail

[ThAdmiral]

@ volkan: another aussie!
I wonder how many of us there are.

[lewarcher82]

welcome to the game, vollkan, I missed your scumpoints.

post 85: it is my opinion that a scumnoob makes mistakes just like a townnoob, therefore it is no bad strategy to put votes on a scumnoob; moreover, consig is in his 4th game, I am in my 8th or 9th, he was not such a noob after all. I thought that consig was an unexperienced scum player and acted accordingly, until I decided that gonzooo looked scummier to me. Then other cases became more urgent, there was the crazy zhero claim and the werewolf lynch, and meanwhile purple has joined, and I started getting towntells from her. Therefore I may have been wrong about consig, and being wrong about consig means I should reconsider my case on gonzooo and possibly dismiss it, at least for the moment.

post 93: having a suspicion and expecting a reaction by the bw-target are no mutually exclusive strategies. They are mutually exclusive iff the player is about to get lynched, L-3 is not the case.

(why are you mentioning that other game? Do you want town to get paranoid about me?)

[mallowgeno]

Mod please replace me. I can't do this right now. Sorry