Newbie 1024 -- Minimalist Mafia (Game Over)

[Neruz]

7 players.

...and the doctor's protect during the night isn't confirmed as town alongside her?

... Whoops, forgot about that.

[Mastin]

...and the doctor's protect during the night isn't confirmed as town alongside her?

Semi-confirmed. As in, will not be lynched today, at the very least.
Anyway, we should not no-lynch, as we have only 7 possible lynch candidates in theory, 6 in practice. That's better odds than we'll ever get by no lynching.

[Nachomamma8]

Why is Mute confirmed if Kayi isn't? If scum intentionally no-killed, then they could be setting up the doctor claim.

Meaning that we have 8 and theory, 6 in practice, which is... still even numbers, and we should still no-lynch.

[Mute]

7 players.

...and the doctor's protect during the night isn't confirmed as town alongside her?

What if everyone is right and that there actually was a no-kill and I wound up protecting a mafian? I don't dismiss it, but given the result and onset of the beginning of this day-period I'd wager it at a .10% chance of being the case. Nothing is proven absolutely until death/lynch.

[Mute]

EBWOP: I swear when I refresh the page I have got to make sure that another page in the thread isn't added.

[Mastin]

Six in practice is better odds than a no-lynch will ever give us, Nacho, because if we no-lynch, one of the two outsides is killed, still leaving us with...yup, six in practice. In other words, we gain NOTHING from no lynching; it is statistically identical to lynching today.
What we gain from NOT no lynching, however, is an extra player's opinion we would not otherwise have.

[Yenros]

@ Mute: If they managed to get a kill tonight I don't think it would be enough to doubt your claim. Right now there are 8 people, and 7 for you to choose from, only 5 of which are town. This means there are 35 possible outcomes between your pick and theirs (supposing they choose to attempt a NK and choose not to NK you), only 5 of which would stop a NK.

[Mastin]

Have I given a SEssion on Isolation Reads this game, or do I need to tICh people what it means?
Hmm...Jay said he'd be fairly active. True, he seems active during certain times, but most of the time, his posts are every-other day.

Jay:

Any reason for this?
Anyway, I'll put it in spoiler tags 'cause it'll be a bit of a long wall.

Spoiler: Jay Isolation Read continued

Jay randomly voted Mute. Doesn't sit well with me, considering Mute's claim. Jay says he was panicking, but I'm not sure the story is legitimate. Maybe on that website, but on here? That mechanic doesn't really exist. Unfortunately, that's the kind of thing you can never gather evidence either way for; I can't tell if he meant it.
He engages in OMGUS against Yenros, here, yet still has a Mute vote instead of switching to his suspect, keeping that random vote.
He also employs the Too Townie To be Town fallacy.
He says he's reading the thread. He asks about HoS--something I mentioned in detail in pretty much my first vote--so obviously, he either 1: skimmed, or 2: lied about the reread. More than that, he now has a Beefster suspicion. His vote?
...Still on Mute. He said he wasn't 100% on it--but, hey, if you're more than 25% sure someone's scum (9 players minus self-->8 players, 2 scum-->2/8-->25%.), then you should still be voting them, because they're more likely in your eyes to be scum than the standard percentage.
He uses Wifom here, too. He was aware of what Wifom was, too, and yet, he was using it. Reads similar to scum who've read about wifom and thought it was a good idea to use it to survive.
This is Jay's best post so far.
Promises a reread, but does not follow through, at least, not with a vote. He's still on his random vote.

Jay:

You mention not knowing our abbreviations...so how did you know Wifom, exactly? Sites which use Wifom tend to use other terms you see here, too, 'cause most likely, they copied the terms from here.

Spoiler: Jay Continued

This is one of his best posts, by the way. However, he never followed through or if he did, didn't give his conclusions.
This post reads as massive paranoia. There might be a few valid points, but they're buried in the pile of mostly-fluff.
He also has not given any content from his last reread.

Jay:

Have you gained anything from any of your rereads? If so, Mind posting your thoughts?

---

Next on my list of to-reads in ISO is Neruz.

Spoiler: Neruz ISO

Starts the game voting for the IC. I am not particularly fond of this, quite honestly.
Something in this post seems off to me. I can't put my finger on it, but this post rubs me the wrong way.
However, I have a town read on Neruz, for posts like this.

I suppose that's it, for now; more ISO reads when I come back. (Then actual in-game after all my Iso's are done.)

[Jay]

Hmm...Jay said he'd be fairly active. True, he seems active during certain times, but most of the time, his posts are every-other day.

Jay:

Any reason for this?

I've been really busy with school lately, but I trying my hardest to keep up and not have to be replaced, or even worse, stop all activity altogether. I'm sorry for this...

Jay randomly voted Mute. Doesn't sit well with me, considering Mute's claim. Jay says he was panicking, but I'm not sure the story is legitimate. Maybe on that website, but on here? That mechanic doesn't really exist. Unfortunately, that's the kind of thing you can never gather evidence either way for; I can't tell if he meant it.

I don't understand what you mean by that it does not sit well with you considering Mute's claim. Are you saying that I voted for Mute because I somehow knew he was the doctor? If so, I don't understand this, because how would I know that early in the game? My vote for Mute was completely random, and as for the fact that I never changed it, despite voicing suspicions of Yenros and Beefster, because I was not completely sure of my suspicions yet and wanted to think them over more. The Yenros suspicion was sorted out quickly, when he explained that the Too Townie Too Be Town Fallacy did not make sense (as did you, Mastin). With the Beefster suspicion, I was a little confused by the Kayi-Beefster suspicion... ah, thing, and from what I knew, Beefster seemed more suspicious. However, I felt hesitant to place a vote because of my confusion and I did not want to make another newbie mistake (the first being the late random vote).

You mention not knowing our abbreviations[/url]...so how did you know Wifom, exactly? Sites which use Wifom tend to use other terms you see here, too, 'cause most likely, they copied the terms from here.

When I had more time to research things, I looked WIFOM up on the Wiki. The other terms, like HoS, I had less time and I wanted a quicker answer, so I asked on the thread.

Jay:

Have you gained anything from any of your rereads? If so, Mind posting your thoughts?

My latest reread was mainly because I felt kind of out of the loop what with the Thanksgiving-holiday inactivity. For some reason it just felt like I was missing something, and rereading the past few pages helped me understand what was going on better, like Mute's suspicion of L22 (I don't know where this stands now, since he has been replaced), and a little more on no lynching that Nacho brought up (I still think it is better to lynch today, even with 6 players because like Mastin said, we will still have six players in practice after tonight).

That's all I have time for tonight, sorry if I did not answer some of your questions, Mastin, I tried to answer the ones that seemed the most important to me. Tomorrow when I get back on I'll answer more.

[RedCoyote]

Vote Count 5

• No Lynch

  (Trendall - Nachomamma8)
  
  
  Not Voting

  (Kayi - Mastin - Yenros - Neruz - Mute - Jay)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Current Deadline: Dec. 11th, 2010 at 5:00 AM

[Mute]

@ Mute: If they managed to get a kill tonight I don't think it would be enough to doubt your claim. Right now there are 8 people, and 7 for you to choose from, only 5 of which are town. This means there are 35 possible outcomes between your pick and theirs (supposing they choose to attempt a NK and choose not to NK you), only 5 of which would stop a NK.

Ahh. Thank you. One thing I am not afraid to admit: I suck terribly at math. Even if it's statistically impossible I can better explain something with words than numbers.

Vote Count 5

• No Lynch

  (Trendall - Lateralus22 - Nachomamma8)
  
  
  Not Voting

  (Kayi - Mastin - Yenros - Neruz - Mute - Jay)

With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.

Current Deadline: Dec. 11th, 2010 at 5:00 AM

Why list Lat22 and Nacho88 if the latter is subbing in for the former?

[Mastin]

I don't understand what you mean by that it does not sit well with you considering Mute's claim.

I find it a bit uneasy that--of all the people to random vote--you got the doctor. Granted, there's no way anyone regardless of alignment would know (unless you're one of the crazies and think Mute's lying... ), but it still rubs me the wrong way. Call it mainly gut, I suppose. It just...feels wrong.

and as for the fact that I never changed it, despite voicing suspicions of Yenros and Beefster, because I was not completely sure of my suspicions yet and wanted to think them over more.

Then why have the vote still on Mute at all, after the phantom issue was cleared up and it was clear that wouldn't happen on this site? (Outside of a really messed up theme game, at least.)
And for that matter, you can never be 100% sure about anyone unless you're the cop, yet you certainly believed them to be scum at the time; why so reluctant to change votes from someone random to someone not?

When I had more time to research things, I looked WIFOM up on the Wiki.

Out of curiosity, when'd you look? The article had been under recent discussion and editing for a while, so it might've changed.

For some reason it just felt like I was missing something

For reference, if you feel like you're missing something, check again. Double-, then triple-check something. If you still can't find anything, look beyond the literal words people are giving, and try to see inside of them. If you feel like you're missing something, 95% of the time, you are.
Thanks for answering what you did, Jay.
But, well,

Jay:

what are your suspicions at this point?
...Actually, given recent events, I think that's a question we should all answer:

Everyone:

who is/are your current suspects?
(For me, it's still Jay, but I'll wait for the answers. Trendall would most likely be my secondary suspect.)

[Mute]

Face may be new but the role behind it might not.
Im still leery about trendall and now Nacho88. Neruz ranks low. Mastin is low-to-mid. RedCoyote is 0%.

[Jay]

Yes! Some time after school to post!

I was beginning to become suspicious of L22 before he was replaced, mainly because I felt it was sort of strange that he so eagerly voted for Kayi and said he was all for a Kayi lynch shortly before Mute revealed he was the doctor and that he had protected Kayi. Maybe L22 saw this and decided to try and lynch Kayi once he knew the mafia kill did not work? He might not have expected Mute to claim so early. But, now, he has been replaced, so I guess I need to reassess it and see what Nacho does before placing a vote.

Before Night 1 I was beginning to find Mute actually suspicious, which was one of the reasons I kept my vote on him. But now, this is proved wrong.

Yenros seems slightly fishy to me. It is not necessarily what he has done, but it seems like he's flown under the radar basically the whole game. Pretty much nobody has voiced suspicions against him. This is mostly a gut feeling right now. Like Mastin asked, who are your suspicions?

[RedCoyote]

Whoops. Fixed the vote count. Thanks, Mute.

[Yenros]

Didn't get much out of rereading. Right now I have 2 suspicious.

I'm suspicious of Jay for the reasons I've stated previously. Though, I don't think the fact that the vote is on Mute meant anything as there is no way anyone could know unless they saw something in Mute's posts, though I don't.

I'm a bit suspicious of Trend for ISO's 10 and 11, posts 175 and 203. First is his reasoning for not hammering Beef, which either one alone would have been fine, but instead he goes from not wanting to look like opportunistic scum to just wanting to wait till deadline is closer. The other thing, in the same posts, is going from the superlative,

I see Beefster's most recent vote as him trying to turn the bandwagon on him around to the

most easy target

, which seems to have become me over the past page or so.

to simply

I meant that I was an easy target, not necessarily the easiest target.

@ mod & all: I have finals next week, and so my time on here will be erratic. I expect I will be able to get on at least tomorrow and Tuesday, but probably not Sunday, Monday, or Wednesday. I will have normal access on Thursday

Noted. Keep an eye on the deadline and try to post when you can.

[Neruz]

The big dead period has really killed my train of thought, so at the moment i'm sort of floating loose. I might have to go back and re-read some prior stuff, but given my past experience that might actually make it worse.

[Jay]

Since it is the weekend I think I'll have a better oppurtunity to post.

Then why have the vote still on Mute at all, after the phantom issue was cleared up and it was clear that wouldn't happen on this site? (Outside of a really messed up theme game, at least.) And for that matter, you can never be 100% sure about anyone unless you're the cop, yet you certainly believed them to be scum at the time; why so reluctant to change votes from someone random to someone not?

Like I said before, I was beginning to become a little suspicious of Mute anyway, which is one of the reasons I kept my vote on him. His posting style seemed sort of odd, how he was inactive for a time and then suddenly came back aggresively voting Beefster, and talking about how he has given up on himself... but, now this isn't important, because I believe Mute is the doctor.

Out of curiosity, when'd you look? The article had been under recent discussion and editing for a while, so it might've changed.

I'm not sure, but it must've been sometime before Nov. 8th, which was when you gave your "SEssion" on WIFOM.

@Neruz: What was your past experience, and how could it make things worse? Was it in this game?

[Neruz]

Different games Jay, and in my past experience once i've lost interest in a game like this, going back to re-read the game makes me even less interested.

[RedCoyote]

Prodding Nacho, Kayi, and Trendall

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Mastin

Okay. I've read up.
It's harder to get a read on you for your long posting, and I've noticed you use it to hide some terribe arguments. For example, the case on Jay. What's the point of posting something like "you random voted the doctor"? What does that have to do with his alignment? All it shows is that he isn't the doctor, and I'm pretty sure all of us realized that by now.

[Kayi]

Responding to prod. I'm really on the same boat Neruz is. This game being dead for a long time has made me lost interest and every attempt of regaining it only ended up making things worse. I'm still going to give it a try.

[Neruz]

Nacho does seem to bring up a good point against Mastin, there have been a few instances where i've looked at the points he's brought to the table and thought they weren't really right, but it didn't really occur to me to consider that scummy.

Well it's not much, but at least it might get this game going for me again

[Trendall]

I've gotta say, I agree with the arguments against Mastin here. For somebody who's talking so much and telling everybody else how to play, I'd expect him to do a far better job of finding the mafia than he has been doing. His arguments against Jay, especially 'you randomly voted for the doctor when nobody knew who the doctor was' are just terrible. Then again, I'll have to do an ISO read before I can commit to this more. Some players do just make bad arguments against people regardless of whether they're town or mafia. However, there have been a number of times when I've seen Mastin make an argument against either me or another player, and I've just thought 'what? That's nonsense'.

[Mastin]

Mod:

Just a note, I'll have slightly reduced access 'til January, due to the upcoming Holidays. ("But those aren't for another two or three weeks!" Considering I'm going out-of-state [don't worry, I have access where I'm going] for them, that means there's a lot of planning involved.) I should have access at least twice a week, though I'll try to get on more.