Mini 1105: A Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[pappums rat]

ok now i have had a through read-through this night phase I can finally get my case together that I wanted to make on Pappums

1. he seems to want to establish town cred so he follows Tasky's advice and changes his vote

2. when Jerb's FOS'd me pappums follows it up by saying he FOS's me also. He also says that the current discussion isn't going to tell us anything which seems to me like somebody in that conversation is scum and he wants to deflect to somebody else, no to mention he had just gone over 2 days without posting anything himself (after being called out for his vote switch mind you) so pot:kettle for the inactivity. The going inactive is a classic scum trick to go get the attention off of you

3. he votes Ross and says it is mainly "gut" and using the whole reaction to tasky's questions to start (notice yet again he is following Jerbs, he followed Jerb's FOS and follows Jerb's Vote)

4. un-votes and puts mute at L-2 and basically just regurgitates what had already been mentioned

5. unvotes mute/rain but he seems reluctant to

6. right after I say elleran is indecisive, pappums chimes in with his own comment about elleran being weird

7. tries to explain his votes but isn't convincing enough to me

8. votes Ross right after Jerb's votes him (noticing a pattern here)

9. right after I FOS Jerbs because his post was scummy, I vote Agar and than pappums throws it out there that Jerbs or Agar is probably scum but says we should lynch Ross

10 . he than decides to turn on Jerbs and puts him at L-2

He basically does everything jerbs does in day 1 and than turns on him when he realizes that his buddy is going to get lynched.

I am confident on my vote for pappums, he definitely fits the bill

1. lololol, this was in rvs. anyone can tell that it was a joke. tasky and i had just played a game together as scumbuddies btw.
2. loads of other people suspected you at that time as well, it wasnt just jerbs and myself.
3. already said why
4. already said why
5. already said why
6. ellibereth was irritating me, acting like that seems an easy way for scum to hide.
7. so i dont convince you. that is why i did what i did, and my answer is not going to change.
8. i had my own reasons for voting rw.
9. i didnt say either were 'probably scum' i said i may compromise on one of them. misrep right there.
10. because agar just got killed. with one compromise lynch down, where else would i go?

in other news, zdenek's 'case' on llamagod is just awful, but i suppose you all already knew that. i seems kind of like omgus against lg because he is now one of lg's top suspects. so,

vote zdenek

[Zdenek]

in other news, zdenek's 'case' on llamagod is just awful

Care to say why?

[RobCapone]

@tasky - you make no sense

[RobCapone]

@ pappums nice defense of my case (sarcasm)

[VP Baltar]

Bah (sarcasm)

[Jerbs]

bah (more sarcasm)

[RossWilliam]

I'm back. Will catch up. Not terrible shocked to see VP Baltar killed.

[pappums rat]

i am going to put my responses in bold in the quote to make this easier to read, just so no one thinks i am trying to misrep zdenek.

I want to lynch LlamaGod today.

- LlamaGod random votes, and then does nothing until he points out that Ross is at L-1, and he does this again a few posts later. I often find this sort of pro-town act coming from scum.

alot of seemingly pro-town things can come from scum since they are trying to emulate town, but this dosent mean that acting pro-town is scummy

- LlamaGod, votes Jerbs for making an overly logical post. I agree that this is a scum-tell, but he makes a pretty good case against Agar too, see his ISO 9.

llamagod had to vote for one of them, and just happened to vote for scum. your point?

- I know there is a good chance this isn't a big deal, but in his ISO 9 he says,

The following looks like lining up an RW mislynch for after a Dizzle mislynch.

This is a possible scum slip; how does he know they are both mislynches?

he doesn't. this is a good way for scum to get another mislynch, so llamagod was pointing out that this may be the case. he never said he 'knows' this to be the case

Notice that he calls for the lynching of Agar or Jerbs in his ISOs 9 through 12. Bussing a scum buddy, while pushing a townie lynch is a common scum tactic.

Then there was the daykill, and Agar flipped town.

I think Llama'd painted himself into a corner after Agar's flip. Considering the time left, it was unlikely that anyone other than Jerbs could have been lynched, so LlamaGod decided to bus Jerbs harder.

He says in ISO 14:

Zdenek is looking rather obviously like Jerbsbuddy #1.
He didn't mention Jerbs when catching up despite Jerbs being more important than most topics.
He was on Agar's wagon, which looked like a counterwagon to protect Jerbs.
Now he and Jerbs are both trying to use the pretty much ridiculous suggestion that scum were responsible for the daykill to protect Jerbs.

Point one, LlamaGod was pushing hard for the Agar' wagon, but as soon as its convenient, it becomes a counter-wagon to protect Jerbs. This is an incredibly convenient change of heart over a wagon that he was pushing.

agar flipped town. this can lead one to come to these sorts of conclusions based upon interactions with other players. its not like he started pushing jerbs harder. agar was gone, so there was only one viable lynch at the time.

Secondly, I never said that scum were responsible for the daykill, and when I called Llama out on this, he ignored me, and continued to try to line up my lynch for today. If he didn't read my post, he's scummy for not trying to figure out players alignments and if he read it but ignored it, he's scummy for not being honest about the arguments he's using.

Finally he makes it clear that he wants Jerbs to claim, asking him to in two posts in a row, I see this as possibly in game communication between scum buddies.

or he wanted jerbs to claim? what kind of communication could go on between them from jerbs claiming?

Vote LlamaGod

[Rain]

Dizzle's slot is shadier and shadier. Zdenek comes in to vote for Jerbs' counter-wagon, which failed. Also, Zdenek's case against LlamaGod is riddled with speculations. (yes, it could have been bussing. or it might be legit accusations. yes, it it could be possible in-game communication. or it might simply be because Jerbs was at L-1. Confirmation bias?)

Vote: Zdenek

[RobCapone]

unvote

Pappums actually makes sense and that case on llama is pretty weak, despite the fact he is trying to accuse me of scum, which isn't true, Llama has been one of my more pro-town reads

I never played with FakeGod as a player I don't think but I have played with Llmarble and he is playing different than he did when he was scum.

Vote Zdenek

[Zachrulez]

1st vote count of day 2:

Zdenek - 3 (Pappums rat, Rain, Robcapone)
Robcapone - 1 (Tasky)
Llamagod - 1 (Zdenek)

Not voting: 5 (Llamagod, Guderian, Vigilante Ventrioquist, Ellibereth, Rosswilliam)

With 10 alive it's 6 to lynch

Day 1 will end no later than Sunday Jan 30th at 5pm CST

[Ellibereth]

Hi guys I'm here.
Ummmm, yeah.
*few min later*

[Ellibereth]

I think that at least one of the people who called insta-BS on the claim are probably scum, i need to check who.

[Rain]

This^ is pure illogic. Nothing you have said or done in this game has helped town at all. Most of your reads are purely gut feeling. It doesn't help that you thought AGar was scum and Jerbs was town, again, for no reason other than gut.

Unvote.
Vote: Ellibereth

[Zdenek]

alot of seemingly pro-town things can come from scum since they are trying to emulate town, but this dosent mean that acting pro-town is scummy

I am not saying that acting pro-town is scummy, just that the way LlamaGod was acting protown can be scummy.

llamagod had to vote for one of them, and just happened to vote for scum. your point?

Read my post, I made my point a few lines down.

he doesn't. this is a good way for scum to get another mislynch, so llamagod was pointing out that this may be the case. he never said he 'knows' this to be the case

Do you think he would be stupid enough to say that he knows this to be the case? My point is that the statement was unqualified.

agar flipped town. this can lead one to come to these sorts of conclusions based upon interactions with other players. its not like he started pushing jerbs harder. agar was gone, so there was only one viable lynch at the time.

This is fluff and misses the point.

or he wanted jerbs to claim? what kind of communication could go on between them from jerbs claiming?

Why ask twice? (I am considering saying that we need Jerbs to claim is asking). Scum will ask their buddy to claim, in the hopes that they will get the message and fake-claim.

Rain, I think that most cases in mafia are riddled with speculation.

lol at RobCapone's meta read.

[Ellibereth]

Eh? I never thought Agar was scum. I don't think I did at least.
Oh yeah, I totally still think that one of Ross and Zdenek are scum from that whole seeing name thing. Don' think it's WIFOM...

This^ is pure illogic.

No it's not. It was likely that Jerbs was going down anyway so scum would think a way for them to get cred is to immidi call the claim bullshit in a bus instead of trying to use it to create a diversion.
Actually assuming 3 one probably bussed and one probably diverted...
hmph.

[Ellibereth]

*time clock turn*

I don't like the no vote at the start of the game. I see it as avoiding conflict.

It's funny, I see it as inciting conflict. Which didn't come until you did this. But then I ignored and cut it.

Changing your status to hidden does NOT remove your last visited date. Therefore, RossWilliam could have in no way "seen" Dizzle online. I knew the backtrack sounded really off to me, and it's looking like it was a lie constructed to help push a lynch on a player actively lurking. There's no pro-town motivation for this whatsoever.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: RossWilliam

Thought about it some and i agree with him.

vote: Ross

[Zachrulez]

Please welcome to the game Empking who replaces Guderian effective immediately.

[Empking]

Please ask me any question you have. Reading now.

[Empking]

Town
1.Robcapone
9. Rosswilliam

Leaning Town
10. Zdenek Dizzle
12. Ellibereth
7. Llamagod (FakeGod and Llamarble hydra)


Leaning Scum
11. Vigilante Ventriloquist Carrotcake
3. Rain Mute

Scum
8. Tasky - His change of heart regarding Jerbs ewhen Jerbs was lynched.
13. Pappums rat - Jerbs was busy distancing him.

Vote: Tasky

[LlamaGod]

Okay, time for some rereading. I want to see who makes most sense as Jerbsbuddies.
Rain makes a good point that Elli was in the group favoring Agar over Jerbs lynch, so add him to the Rob/Zdenek list of counterwagonpushers (Though he said he preferred a Dizzle or RW lynch to either).

HEY ME TOO. Except that I still kinda think it's scummy, but I'm going all confirmation bias on Dizzlescum for a little bit more.
I actually have to look at Jerbs again. Something's been ringing town in me. May just have been his avatar...
and Agar, but without the town part.

This came after I started attacking Agar/Jerbs but before it was clear one of them would be the day's lynch.

[Tasky]

His change of heart regarding Jerbs ewhen Jerbs was lynched.

What change of heart are you talking about exactly?

Spoiler: ooh, you mean THIS change of heart. riight.

8th vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 2 (Tasky, Rain)

9th vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 3 (Tasky, Rain, Llamagod)

10th vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 3 (Tasky, Rain, Llamagod)

11th vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 3 (Tasky, Rain, Llamagod)

12th vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 5 (Tasky, Rain, Llamagod, Guderian, Pappums rat)

Final vote count of day 1:

Jerbs - 7 (Tasky, Rain, Llamagod, Guderian, Pappums rat, VP Baltar, Vigilante Ventrioquist)

Jerbs

(Mafia Goon)

lynched day 1

you better start doing something useful soon.

[LlamaGod]

I need to think more about Ross because he clearly said something that wasn't true (I'd been thinking mistake, but maybe he and Jerbs were both scum? need to read more) and "gosh, I really really think Jerbs was town" sounds totally ingenuine.

Just ISOed Rob. His posting sounds good/has a town feel, but who he is suspicious of at different times seems to make more sense if he's scum and he was not pro Jerbslynch even near the end, suggesting Tasky and Pappums as alternatives despite not showing a whole lot of interest in either of them previously. This conveniently agreed with who Jerbs was suspicious of and Pappums was the player I had most recently expressed willingness to lynch other than Jerbs/Agar, so he seemed like a good candidate for a new counterwagon.

I'll also requote this:

damn I hate when there is any sort of weather condition because my DSL takes a crap, not going to be able to do the readthrough that I wanted on my phone but I am going back to my earlier vote

That last post by Jerbs has me scratching my head

FOS: Jerbs

Vote Agar

Then there's this from Jerbs.

Rosswilliamcasestuff

Vote: RossWilliam

@VV

Why would RossWilliam being scum make Tasky town? They just got into a little argument. That has no influence on whether or not they are scum or town

@Rob

Where are you? It's clear you're posting elsewhere. Lurking is bad for town, and a common way for scum to hide

FOS: Rob

So we have what could be bidirectional FOS:scumbuddy, vote somebody else. Also Jerbs was pushing hard enough on Ross to make me think the two weren't scumbuddies, but that's hard to be sure on.

At this point I think Rob is not unlikely to be scum, particularly since both of those FOSes seem to be of the "you just did something scummy, I'm not going to vote you yet but step up your game!" variety. Robscum would also explain the baltarkill pretty well; Baltar was clearly suspicious of Rob after Rob said Baltar would look suspicious regardless of how the lynch went down.

[Empking]

Jerbs is fine.

OK I think I misunderstood this post.

Unvote

Vote: PR

[Empking]

Yeah. I took a gap halfway through reading this game with no notes. Swap Tasky and Rob on my list of reads.