Blackest Night Mafia (GAME OVER!)

AlmasterGM · Post Post #1800 (ISO) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 2:38 pm

I'm sheeping Andrius. Kast, MoI, tants, and nopoint all sound like fine lynches to me. I think, though, that the priority should be on black, so whoever Andrius thinks that is is who I will vote for.

Andrius · Post Post #1801 (ISO) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 8:13 pm

Not finished yet, sadly.
Got all distracted. My roommate started watching Dexter (the TV series) and now he, myself, and my best friend here are all hooked. P:

MagnaofIllusion · Post Post #1802 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:12 am

Mass-prod received … I guess my notice of V/LA til today wasn’t sufficient

The game has unfortunately stalled because everyone is waiting on our Town leader to make his decision. It’s one of the downsides of having a strong Town facilitator.

My condensed thoughts regarding who I would like to lynch today –

1. NoPoint

– he’s claimed a role that makes no sense in context of most non-bastard Mafia games. Furthermore the way in which his role ‘claim’ unfolded is very suspect. When Spryrex indicated he had unspecified role information about NoPoint the response was ‘I hid behind Vi, why didn’t I die?’ That only makes sense in context of NoPoint being worried about a track / watch result and quickly concocting a claim. Later when Andrius claims role-based information about NoPoint his response is “Dude you tried to kill me I’m a Hider”. Not one mention that he couldn’t be targeted by any abilities other than a NK. Later when not being target-able is brought up suddenly he ‘remembers’ that he can’t be. He still has not shown the bread-crumbs he claimed to have left. Lastly his play in game is best described as trying to coast under the radar with a side of buddying those who defend him and villainizing those who attack him.

2. Tans

– Andrius’s result which indicates Tans is scum combined with his odd role-claim (an Unlynchable Vig) and continue calls to ‘give him another day or 2 to prove himself’ make him a solid second choice.

3. AGM

– I’ve laid out why AGM is scum. Lack of any scum-hunting, his self-professed attempt to bus Sensfan over his Investigation Immune Janitor leader, and his responses to suspicion of his obv-Red nature.

4. Kast

– The bulk of the reasons why Kast is a good potential lynch revolve around his role-claim and questionable Night choice claims. He’s by far last on my list when looking at scummy play.

--

Stove wrote:Also - we feel best course of action is lynching among the yellow candidates and letting "fireworks take care of our other problems tonight." We've explained the theory before.

See this doesn’t make much sense to me. I know you’ve explained it before but the main motivation for Red and Orange to go scum-hunting for Yellow at this stage is their numerical advantage. Specifically going after Yellow via lynch, if successful, only removes that motivation. We have enough confirmed or strongly considered Town players at this stage that scum has little reason to worry about hunting each other if it gives Town an absolute lock on the game.

The way I see it Town should be approaching the lynch from two perspectives –

1. Lynching your top scum candidate based on scumminess not likelihood of Color.
2. Specifically hunting for players most likely to be Red, Orange or the Black Cult leader in an effort to kill the Cult or minimize the Nightkills.

Going after Yellow specifically in hunting is the worst of both worlds. As I explained above it removes motivation for cross-kills and doesn’t reduce kill potential or eliminate the Cult threat. If you want to go after you number 1 scum suspect I can see. Specifically hunting likely Yellow as opposed to other color threats or the most scummy players makes no sense.

Stove wrote:I'm requesting one of our flavor gurus to explain how this impacts the game. I'm not sure if I'm getting anything from it. Because I read up some, and as far as I read, Plum's dude is actually a black lantern until like.. the end of shit.

I don’t think it really does (so I disagree with Kast). There was once a Green Lantern named Tomar Re who died. In the Green Lantern books another Green Lantern from the same race ( a humanoid race with Orange skin, no hair and a frilled crest on top of their head), Tomar Tu, has been alive and active into Blackest Night and I think it’s reasonable that dana might have mistaken him for Tomar Re.

The fact that William Hand (Black Hand, one of the main villains in Blackest Night with Nekron and Scar) appears in the game as a member of the Indigo Tribe (which he only makes an appearance as in the Blackest Night wrap-up) indicates to me that Kast is looking too hard at whether members of whatever Corp made actual appearances in the series itself.

--

NoPoint wrote:Tans is obv-scum and there's a small chance he's not yellow from what he is saying (Blac, Orange??). MOI might also not be his partner-in-law but I'll be keeping a grizzly eye on him. I agree with Stove dude about getting yellow lynched and sick of justifying for those people calling me that yucky color Orange. Andy or Kast might be Blac but it is mostly gut feeling.

1. Wait so suddenly I’m not clearly Yellow?
2. Are you sick of being called Orange scum because you are? Because you haven’t provide any defense against the logic that labels you scum and most likely Orange.
3. So you think Andrius is possibly the Black recruiter despite the confluence of cross-confirmed power usage that shows he’s very likely Blue as he claims?
4. Who are you voting again right now?
5. I know very well as Town PR you play different than this (Zang's Mini Normal 1003). And the fact that you are supposedly NK immune as a Hider makes your scummy play here even less logical based on the meta I know for you as a Town PR.

--

AGM wrote:I'm sheeping Andrius. Kast, MoI, tants, and nopoint all sound like fine lynches to me. I think, though, that the priority should be on black, so whoever Andrius thinks that is is who I will vote for.

Exhibit XVI why AGM is scummy Mr. Scumpants. Look at the previous entry in his ISO (76, post 1779). He attempts to assert that I am pushing an ‘invisible’ case on him and that everything that is said against him is ‘set-up’ spec.

I respond in 1780 directing him to the exact arguments that he ignored regarding his ‘MoI is lurking’ argument. And laid out a quick summary of the case on him.

He once again doesn’t respond

AT ALL

in any way to dispute what is said.

He knows it’s correct so going back to coasting and buddying confirmed Town is his only course of action.

THAT’S RIGHT AGM I’M GOING TO KEEP POINTING OUT YOUR SCUMMY PLAY UNTIL YOU HANG OR A VENTILATED AT NIGHT. YOU ARE CAUGHT SCUM AND HAVE NO CHANCE TO ESCAPE.

Andrius · Post Post #1803 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:14 am

Reading.

Kat's treatment of tanny makes tanny non-yellow.

nopoint enters without a vote. WTF

tanny wrote: I do think that certain people who think they are the bomb at mafia (or are arrogant)

I just find this odd.

Given SensFan's flip, that is.

Again, not like we did wrong by lynching scumbags D1-D3, but we could have shot down SensFan a bit earlier HAD PEOPLE LISTENED WHEN I SAID SSBF WOULD HAVE SENT IN SCUM COLORS.

I can't see MoI as anything other than Yellow. Or Orange, perhaps. And Black. But most definitely yellow if I had to guess.

Current scum:
nopoint - ORANGE
tanny - RED
MoI - NON-RED (only thing I got out now, a BP claim is perfect for SK which is why nopoint needs death so we can narrow this thing down; but i highly doubt MoI would claim BP AT ALL if he WERE BP_SK because then he'd just be clue-ing all of us in, ESPECIALLY with mah vig shootings and 2 other scum NKs
Kast - BLACK ?
AGM - BLACK/RED
KageLord - HAL/ YELLO

tanstalas · Post Post #1804 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:51 pm

@Andrius - Except I vigged Dram. I'd be a pretty shitty teammate to vig my own red brother. And others brought up the whole Gud vs Tan thing as a reason I am not red as well (though you could say he was bussing I suppose) however the killing Dram thing kinda blows your Tans is red theory out of the water.

Though I was leaning AGM red as well, so I think your list is pretty accurate. NPIAU/Orange, MoI/Yellow, Kast/Black, Kagelord/Yellow, AGM/Red.

1)Lynch Red, Orange or Black
2)????
3)Profit

Kast · Post Post #1805 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:14 pm

Got the prod...not sure that it's necessary especially given it was over a weekend where people are generally busy with life.

@Mod-
Thanks for confirmation.

@Stove/MoI-
-The point on flavor is that the mods intended to have characters in this game come from the source (Blackest Night comics) and is a direct response to KK's objection that Tomar Re being alive in this game is "proof" that flavor doesn't matter so it's reasonable to expect characters who have NO TIES AT ALL with the Blackest Night Story. KK has claimed a brand new character who appeared in the comics (and subsequently in wikis) AFTER mod announced the game AND a couple weeks before the game design was finished. Shane Thompson is not part of the Blackest Night series at all and, despite KK's claim, has NO RING and is NOT an Indigo Lantern.

Aside from that KK was generating scum reads early game for several players, but he got a free pass because people read Fate out of context and jumped to the false conclusion that he was investigation cleared town. Also note, KK has abandoned his previous desire to reduce the number of NKs and instead is pushing the claimed-PR who almost exclusively opposes Black Recruitment. If people really want to kill Black, KK's the most likely candidate for Black Recruiter.

@Andy/Kdub-
I don't know what your powers are, but you're both clearly jumping to conclusions and not reading my full post. I get that you both claim to have unblockable/unredirectable abilities that target others. I get that one of you can give your target the ability to one-shot vig (and potentially other abilities). From your responses, you weren't addressing my previous proposal. The proposal was that if you ARE REALLY unblockable/unredirectable, then I can redirect the VIG KILL (or WHATEVER ABILITY you grant to your target), NOT redirect you. Tell your vig target he has to shoot me; presumably you can pick a target who is unlikely to be "recruited" already.

@Andy-
I think you're seriously overestimating the danger of a Black Cult to scum.
-If SK can be recruited, then he obviously has no incentive to kill Black. If he can't, he still has no incentive since the Black Recruits split up town and allow him an alternate to be lynched instead of himself.
-Red/Yellow scum likely don't have to worry about being recruited, and based on the number of players remaining, it's in their interests to wait one more night before killing each other (Red may aim to kill one Yellow, but then again might just shoot safely since the two primary Yellow suspects might be bulletproof (MoI-claimed it; Tans might be SK if NPIAU isn't).
Scum is going to kill town tonight (or potentially shoot recruited blacks who are indistinguishable from town anyway). Town needs to reduce kills with today's lynch, then use Blue Brother's enabled-vig & tomorrow's lynch to get rid of Black and another NK.

Just try running through the numbers.

VOTE: NPIAU

AGM, Kage, or KK are good alternates. Tans maybe on the off chance he is SK. MoI should be left for Red scum to gamble a wasted kill.

Dekes · Post Post #1806 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:24 pm

Kagelord is still way too quiet compared to his overall activity across the board. I don't know if yellow would really be trying to stay under the radar now with all the scum- and blackhunting going on that could help their faction get rid of a rival faction and could give them somewhat townie points for it as well.

Kagelord, once again, stop lurking. You said it'd be in town's best interest to lynch the black recruiter today but you never actually said who you think that black recruiter is . So, who is it and - in your own words - why?

Andrius · Post Post #1807 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:13 pm

KageLord is probably Siniestro then.
If he's scum, that is.
Why? Because he claimed HAL FUCKING JORDAN.
They wouldn't give that to a fucking Goon. lol

THIS THIS THIS sent a shiver down my spine when I reread it.
Here's to HOPING that the Black Recruiter hasn't been active since then.

Goddamn. Because if he HAS, then we're in trouble.
Because we've got FIVE scumteams. :/

Kast · Post Post #1808 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:30 pm

@Andy-
Working on a numbers post that'll be up tonight; however, if you assume Toog was recruited on N0, then obviously it wasn't me as I wasn't anywhere on the site until Jan 10th (this was posted in the sign up threads and I only agreed to join this game on condition that it wouldn't be a problem). Mod can confirm that his initial statement about everyone picking up their PMs was not true for everyone (if he wants to avoid directly confirming me, he can at least admit that the statement was false so it doesn't falsely confirm me as a liar).

Andrius · Post Post #1809 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:33 pm

Except there was no N0.
So its ok.

Andrius · Post Post #1810 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:47 pm

Current gameplan based on incomplete read:
We shoot nopoint in the face today
tonight the scum and us shoot black
tomorrow we lynch scum, based on play and FLASHY NEW STUFF.

Preferably: scum A shoots MoI (who either dies/doesn't die)
scum B shoots Black
scum C was nopoint and is dead
black recruits scumbag/killed player and fails
town shoots scumbag
ideal D5:
dead Red
dead Orange
dead Black
no black recruit

<333
hunting yellow is easy-peasy

Andrius · Post Post #1811 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:52 pm

reck wrote: Reck's Scumlist, which is guaranteed to be 99% accurate OR YOUR MONEY BACK!:
SensFan
NPIAU
dramonic
tanstalas
Guderian
maybe Jack

Lookin' good so far. Srsly. Drop the "maybe" and we're looking good.

Kast · Post Post #1812 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:30 pm

@Andy-
Still working on my post but PLEASE don't make a decision based on the assumption that scum WANTS TO HELP TOWN DEAL WITH BLACK, or with the assumption that scum will INTENTIONALLY TRY TO LOSE BY THINNING EACH OTHER RIGHT NOW. I'll prolly have analysis up in 2-3 hours...depending how much time I can slip in between work stuff.

Kublai Khan · Post Post #1813 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:36 pm

Kast wrote:@Stove/MoI-
-The point on flavor is that the mods intended to have characters in this game come from the source (Blackest Night comics) and is a direct response to KK's objection that Tomar Re being alive in this game is "proof" that flavor doesn't matter so it's reasonable to expect characters who have NO TIES AT ALL with the Blackest Night Story.

Uh.. what? I never stated that Tomar Re being in this game is "proof" that flavor doesn't matter. I pointed to stuff like William Hand being a pro-town Indigo flavor character is an indication that your assumptions about how flavor should influence game mechanics is completely moonbeams.

You've been doing two things all of today: downplaying the potential strength of the Black Lanterns and out-guessing the mod.

Kast wrote:KK has claimed a brand new character who appeared in the comics (and subsequently in wikis) AFTER mod announced the game AND a couple weeks before the game design was finished. Shane Thompson is not part of the Blackest Night series at all and, despite KK's claim, has NO RING and is NOT an Indigo Lantern.

I've never denied any of that. In fact, I stated all that before you even strongly objected to my claim (even the no ring thing). You are going to be pissed at the mods after the game is over.

Kast wrote:Aside from that KK was generating scum reads early game for several players, but he got a free pass because people read Fate out of context and jumped to the false conclusion that he was investigation cleared town. Also note, KK has abandoned his previous desire to reduce the number of NKs and instead is pushing the claimed-PR who almost exclusively opposes Black Recruitment. If people really want to kill Black, KK's the most likely candidate for Black Recruiter.

Yes, obviously anyone who has generated scum reads at any point in the game must be scum. Which means that Andrius is the only actual pro-town character.

Fate called me town for his gambit because he obviously had a town-read on me. If you disagree with that assessment then that's fine, but I've bemusedly watched you rank me from not-cleared to prob scum to scum to red (and now to black now that it's en vogue to black-hunt). You've got a nasty case of confirmation bias and you a struggling to make facts fit your warped reality. You are so scum it hurts to read.

Kast wrote:Working on a numbers post that'll be up tonight; however, if you assume Toog was recruited on N0, then obviously it wasn't me as I wasn't anywhere on the site until Jan 10th (this was posted in the sign up threads and I only agreed to join this game on condition that it wouldn't be a problem). Mod can confirm that his initial statement about everyone picking up their PMs was not true for everyone (if he wants to avoid directly confirming me, he can at least admit that the statement was false so it doesn't falsely confirm me as a liar)

Nice. absolutely nobody was assuming that Toogaloo was recruited Night 0. Good job clearing yourself against stuff that didn't/couldn't have happened.

Andrius · Post Post #1814 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:17 pm

KAGELORD wrote: The only way this works is if the result you got was no result. I guess we will have to trust you on that for the moment.

Now about xvart, are you sure enough that you would take a vig bullet or tomorrow's rope if you're wrong?

THIS.
Anyone doubt that IF KageLord is scum that he's YELLOW?
Speak now

and get shot dead

.

Kdub · Post Post #1815 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:55 pm

Kast wrote:@Andy/Kdub-
I don't know what your powers are, but you're both clearly jumping to conclusions and not reading my full post. I get that you both claim to have unblockable/unredirectable abilities that target others. I get that one of you can give your target the ability to one-shot vig (and potentially other abilities). From your responses, you weren't addressing my previous proposal. The proposal was that if you ARE REALLY unblockable/unredirectable, then I can redirect the VIG KILL (or WHATEVER ABILITY you grant to your target), NOT redirect you. Tell your vig target he has to shoot me; presumably you can pick a target who is unlikely to be "recruited" already.

Sorry, I'm not taking the bait. We'll target whoever we want, and we're not going to inform the scum of who those players may be.

Andy, I think you're getting a bit paranoid and overthinking things a bit. We've lynched scum the first three days in a row, and we've averaged one scum death per night (counting Toog). If we're dealing with an unfavorable situation, then the game wasn't balanced to start with.

Theory: black can only recruit operatives? We discussed why they couldn't recruit scum. It would be pretty bastardly if they could recruit a mason. And it would be hugely swingy if they could recruit one of the better town PRs. Just speculation.

I am still not in favor of a nopoint lynch over Kast or tans today, but if you (Andy) are absolutely convinced that's the right play, I'll go with it.

Andrius · Post Post #1816 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:56 pm

Ok I just read 60 odd pages. Not quite done, BUUUUUUT.

Want to see what Kast comes up with regarding numbers.

TRUE.
Kdub has a point.
A good point.
Kdub, next time WE should be masons.
If they could recruit ME or YOU the game would break.
WIIIIIIDE open. Especially with the magicks that haven't yet been revealed.

Kdub, we act together. If you're not down with a nopoint lynch we won't rush into it.
I'm actually leaning tanny or Kast ATM.

Andrius · Post Post #1817 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:57 pm

^^^ which would explain both Toog's flip, and speculation on KK/Stove being recruited.

HRMMMM

The Stove · Post Post #1818 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:36 pm

Kublai Khan wrote:
The Stove wrote:Also - we feel best course of action is lynching among the yellow candidates and letting "fireworks take care of our other problems tonight." We've explained the theory before.
Yeah, that theory is the major reason why I think you're recruited. Eliminating 1 of the yellows and crossing your fingers and hoping for a mass bloodbath cross-kills event is the absolute worst strategy for town at this point in the game. We have to take the reins and eliminate one of our fractured enemies. Especially an enemy that can't grow.

Your attitude of "Let's ignore that ever-growing cult problem and hope it just takes care of itself and goes away" isn't a good one. At all. The killing scum groups are going to WIFOM mind-fuck their way into not killing who we want them to kill. The town needs to eliminate the worst problem first with our ability to lynch, then pick out the worst problem out of what's left alive tomorrow.

You see, it's posts like this that make me think you're a black lantern. You want the red scum dead because they might actually kill one of you, and you guys can't recruit them or kill.

We're not "ignoring it." Trust me, we're aware it's a problem. But if you have a solution to find one of them, I'm all ears. In the meantime, all lynching Red/OJ does is make it:

A) Less likely a black lantern dies in the fray
B) Easier for the black lanterns to go about recruitment at night.

What it doesn't do for town that you so magically think it does is help. Assuming a 15:4:4:1:1 setup, with a successful recruit every night beginning N1 and no scum recruitability, the town now sits in a 4:2:1:1:3. Killing a red or orange puts us into the night with a 4:2:1:3 situation, with the cult aiming for a recruit, yellow aiming in its own best interest, and red/orange aiming for yellow, hoping to bring it even. If all happens in WCS, we go into tomorrow in a 3:1:1:3 or 2:1:1:4 situation.

IF we take away the incentive for scum to aim to cross-kill and force their focus on the bigger issue at hand of the growing cult, we can possibly trim the game into a 4:1:1:1:1 situation. Odds aren't great for scum, but you can win that game. You can't win a game against a cult of 4 when you're a 1 or 2 person team. IF we don't lynch black today OR force scum to cult-kill, it's fucking game over. They come into tomorrow with a 50:50 or 37:62 ratio. If it's 50:50 - they win. If it's not, they can just keep under the radar like they have been thus far.

Why this had to be spelled out is incredibly mind-boggling.

MoI - The motivation for crosskill among Yellow/Red/Orange isn't our intent at all. If we reduce them to 1:1:1 we do remove the motivation for Red/OJ to hunt out yellow for tonight. We force them into an uncomfortable situation of "Oh fuck, we might lose if we let this cult outgrow us." We want them to aim for cult if they can figure it out, because I see no way of discerning tells here enough to persuade a lynch. If you got 'em, I'm all ears.

-AGar

The Stove · Post Post #1819 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:40 pm

A generalized point of what I'm saying:

If it goes to a 1:1:1 scum split, their motivation for aiming to kill townies is done. They lose if they kill them all. If scum each hits a townie intentionally, then they go into a 0:1:1:1:4 scenario.

Kast · Post Post #1820 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:42 pm

Based on the numbers, we've got 11 alive, and assuming starting distribution of 4x per color:

1

/

1

/

2

/(

1

-x₁)/(

4

-x₂)/(

2

-x₃)/

0

/(x₁+x₂+x₃)

Spoiler: If we play by KK's proposal of Kast as Black Recruiter, then...

...the numbers pretty much guaranteed a town loss by lynching me. If any of those numbers are unclear, please say so.

Spoiler: The interactions with an SK and my expectation of the setup argue undisputably that...

...an SK lynch is the clear way to go for today to give town the best chances of winning. Lynching Red is next best, assuming town vigs KK-Black Recruiter.

@KK-
-You're a blatant liar. You explicitly named both Fate and Plum as examples of flavor that support your claim that mods aren't sticking to the Source.
-Don't pretend you are completely stupid. You made a BS claim. As a result of the BS claim, you went from probable scum to definitely scum. You enhanced your BS claim and abandoned your previous strategy of lynching SK in favor of lynching threats to Black; revealing yourself as probable Black. Obviously my reads will change in response to you giving information that you are lying.

@Tans/Yellow-
The thought occurred that if Tans could potentially be the Yellow GF with a one shot lynch immunity (instead of Janitor/INV. IMMUNE). Tans as yellow scum fits with him truthfully claiming 2 kills and no other actions (in case there was a tracker result on him). This isn't a strong suspicion, but I don't think anyone raised it yet, and it fits his claim.

Kast · Post Post #1821 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:45 pm

It's long and somewhat dense.

You have to go through the numbers in each ones context. I also got lazy/bored of this so I didn't finish section 2 of the second spoiler (but everyone thinks I'm crazy for even considering that anyway so meh...).

If you absolutely don't trust that I have redirection (ie. it conflicts with your role or whatever), then many of the cases in which my redirection is used to stop a kill switch from town win/stalemate into town loss/stalemate.

I do think the Recruiting is Operative Only, sounds like a very plausible limitation/mechanic.

Kast · Post Post #1822 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:47 pm

Also, to add on Stove's speculation, I bet KK's setting up for a Stove recruit tonight.

Andrius · Post Post #1823 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:01 pm

GOD I could really use a Neighborhood with Kdub now...

Andrius · Post Post #1824 (ISO) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:05 pm

Roles the Recruiter cannot recruit:
Scum - breakage
Masons - breakage
PRs - BREAKAGE

So that leaves Operatives... this was a great find.