I'm pretty sure we're in one of these setups...
--We've got at most 1 Black Recruiter with no current recruits.
--One of NPIAU or KageLord is the fourth Green Lantern.
--AGM is scum by virtue of being 5th Violet Lantern (most likely Red Scum).
(1) AGM is Red; NPIAU is SK; MoI & Tans are Yellow; KK is Black Recruiter; 1 Townie is immune to recruiting
(Alternate version with equivalent numbers: AGM is Red; Tans is SK; MoI & Kage are Yellow; KK is Black Recruiter; 1 Townie is immune to recruiting)
(2) AGM is Red; NPIAU is SK; MoI & Tans are Yellow; Black Recruiting is dead-player or mod-controlled (if dead player, then limited by my ability, and not recruiting scum; if mod controlled, then probably x
4 uses that follow a predetermined list (e.g. Recruits from list of Operatives) or target randomly); 1 Townie is immune to recruiting
Looking at the first case (1), we have a couple options for lynches:
(1.1) Lynch Red to remove 1 kill.
(1.2) Lynch Orange to remove 1 kill.
(1.3) Lynch Yellow for Stove's reasons.
(1.4) Lynch Black to remove recruiting.
(1.1) Assuming a successful lynch since a mislynch in any situation pretty much means town loses (or reduces to one of the other alternatives so can be ignored here since it's not what we're aiming for).
-Black is not a threat to any scum (town vig has to shoot at the suspected Black Recruiter).
-Orange and Yellow are obviously aiming for town PRs (who KK and most are assuming as non-black-recruits).
-Assuming town has a vig (that isn't given to Black), then SK is off limits due to probable BP so Black or Yellow is the obv kill (Black more likely since it potentially eliminate Recruiting).
Probable Results:
(1.1.1) Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits town.
(1.1.2) Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Blue (Kast). Black Recruits town.
(1.1.3) Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Blue (Kast). Black Recruiting fails.
(1.1.4) Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting fails.
-If we end up in (1.1.1), then
--Lynching SK lets town potentially redirect Yellow Kill at Yellow. If that works, we lynch last Yellow to stop the kills and then guess who the last Black Recruit was (may be discernible based on my protections). If that fails, then we lynch Yellows and town/Black are left in 1 town 1 Black Recruit stalemate.
--Lynching Yellow lets me redirect SK at Yellow. Yellow practically has to kill me as KK's flip will essentially confirm me. Lynch Orange the following day and town has a chance to lynch Black Recruit for the win OR get stuck in 1-1 Town-Black stalemate.
--No lynching lets me redirect Orange at Yellow. Following day has 1 Orange, 1 Yellow, 2 Towns, 1 Black Recruit. Lynching either SK or Yellow is equivalent and the other is lynched the following day. Last scum plays Kingmaker between town win or 1-1 town-Black stalemate.
--Lynching Black lets me redirect Orange at Yellow. Following day has 1 Orange, 1 Yellow, 2 Towns. Town plays Kingmaker with Orange and Yellow.
-If we end up in (1.1.2), town has already lost (no point calculating the endgame).
-If we end up in (1.1.3), town is almost lost.
--If SK is lynched, Yellow wins.
--If Yellow is lynched, SK kills non-Yellow to force the Kingmaker (killing Yellow results in his lynch/loss).
--If Black is lynched, SK kills Yellow and forces the Kingmaker.
Town is guaranteed loss in this case.
-If we end up in (1.1.4), then
--Lynching SK lets town potentially redirect Yellow Kill at Yellow. If that works, we lynch last Yellow to win. If that fails, then we lynch Yellows for town win.
--Lynching Yellow lets me redirect SK at Yellow. Yellow practically has to kill me as KK's flip will essentially confirm me. Lynch Orange the following day for town win.
--No lynching lets me redirect Orange at Yellow. Following day has 1 Orange, 1 Yellow, 3 Towns. Lynching either SK or Yellow is equivalent and the other is lynched the following day.
This is a town win.
(1.2) This is extremely similar to 1.1 only better for town.
-Black is not a threat to any scum (town vig has to shoot at the suspected Black Recruiter).
-Red and Yellow are obviously aiming for town PRs (too many towns to start killing each other and have a chance at winning).
-Assuming town has a vig (that isn't given to Black), then Black or Red is the obv kill (Black potentially eliminates Recruiting and 1 cult member; Red removes a Kill).
-From (1.1) analysis, it should be clear that vig-killing Blue (Kast) results in guaranteed town loss. Blue Brother's chosen vig should take that into account while evaluating if Kast is the right vig-kill.
Probable Results:
(1.2.1) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits town.
(1.2.2) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting fails.
(1.2.3) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruits town.
(1.2.4) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruiting fails.
-Going to (1.2.1) means town has a chance.
--Lynching Red means I have a chance to redirect Yellow at Yellow. If it works, we lynch Yellow, then I can ID the last Black. If it fails, then I get killed, we lynch remaining Yellows who play Kingmaker between Town win or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate.
--Lynching Yellow means I redirect Red to Yellow. Yellow kills me. Lynch Red. Lynch Black for town win or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate.
--Lynching Black means I redirect Red to Yellow. Yellow kills me. Following day is 1 Red, 1 Yellow, 2 Town. No lynch and hope for the Nash cross kill.
Town has opportunities to win.
-Going to (1.2.2) is even better for town:
--Lynching Red means I have a chance to redirect Yellow at Yellow. If it works, we lynch Yellow and win. If it fails, we lynch Yellow and win.
--Lynching Yellow means I redirect Red to Yellow. Yellow kills me. Lynch Red and Town wins.
Town wins.
-Going to (1.2.3) gives town a chance to win:
--Lynch Yellow. I redirect last Yellow at Black (proving that I can redirect AND that I'm not the recruiter). Following day is 1 Yellow, 2 Town, 2 Black or 1 Yellow, 3 Town, 1 Black. We practically have to lynch Yellow and hope the last Black Recruiting failed. Could result in a Town win, Black win, or 1-1 or 2-2 Town-Black Stalemate.
--Lynch Black Recruiter. I have a chance to redirect Yellow at Yellow. If it succeeds, we're in the same boat as the previous round and either Town wins or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate. If it fails, then Black or I get killed. Following day is 2 Yellow, 1 Town, 2 Black or 2 Yellow, 2 Town, 1 Black. Both cases result in town playing Kingmaker with Yellow and Black.
--Lynch Black Recruit. I have a chance to redirect Yellow at Black Recruiter. If it succeeds, we're in 2 Yellow, 2 Town, 1 Black and we play Kingmaker with Yellow or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate.
This one is pretty mixed.
-Similarly, (1.2.4) gives town a strong chance to win:
--Lynch Yellow. I redirect last Yellow at Black (proving that I can redirect AND that I'm not the recruiter). Following day is 1 Yellow, 3 Town, 1 Black or 1 Yellow, 4 Town. Lynch Yellow for the town win (I investigate to confirm).
--Lynch Black Recruiter. I redirect Yellow at Yellow. If successful, town wins. If not, town lynches remaining Yellow and wins.
Town wins here.
(1.3) This option leaves us in a pretty mixed game state.
-Black is not a threat to any scum (town vig has to shoot at the suspected Black Recruiter).
-Red, Orange, and Yellow are obviously aiming for town PRs (too many towns to start killing each other and have a chance at winning).
-Assuming town has a vig (that isn't given to Black), then Black or Red is the obv kill (Black potentially eliminates Recruiting and 1 cult member; Red removes a Kill).
Probable Results:
(1.3.1) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits Town.
(1.3.2) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.3.3) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red or Yellow. Black Recruits Town.
(1.3.4) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red or Yellow. Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.3.5) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits Town.
(1.3.6) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.3.7) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red or Yellow. Black Recruits Town.
(1.3.8) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red or Yellow. Black Recruiting Fails.
-If (1.3.1), then game state is winnable.
--Lynching Red/Orange/Yellow is identical. I can redirect 1 Scum at Scum and we lynch remaining scum for a town win or 1-1 Town-Black Stalemate.
--Lynch Black Recruit. I redirect Orange at Yellow. Unclear what Red or Yellow will do, but likely this is time for them to cross kill each other. If they do, we win. If not, at least one survives which means we play Kingmaker between Orange and remaining scum.
Town wins if we play it smart.
-If (1.3.2), same as (1.3.1)
-If (1.3.3), the situation is identical for Red vigged or Yellow vigged, so just going to handle Red:
--Lynch Yellow or Orange is equivalent; I redirect Yellow to kill the Black Recruiter. We either lynch Yellow for a 2-2 Stalemate or no lynch to let Yellow play Kingmaker for Town-Black.
--Lynch Black Recruiter. I redirect Orange to kill Yellow. Yellow plays Kingmaker between Town or Stalemate.
Scum decides if Town wins or Stalemate with Black.
-If (1.3.4), same as (1.3.3) except the Stalemates become more probable Town wins.
-If (1.3.5) & (1.3.6) similar:
--Lynch Red/Orange/Yellow equivalent, I redirect Scum to Scum, and we lynch remaining Scum. We then lynch Black Recruit for the win or Stalemate.
Guaranteed win in (1.3.6)
-If (1.3.7) & (1.3.8) are similar to (1.3.3) and (1.3.4):
Same strategies as before, only the extra hitpoint means town doesn't get stuck in the Stalemate.
Town wins.
(1.4) This sort of depends if town lynches the actual Black (KK) or Andy's suspected Black (Kast).
-Black is gone.
-Red, Orange, and Yellow are obviously aiming for town PRs (too many towns and no Black to soak kills at this point).
-Assuming town has a vig, then SK is off limits due to probable BP so Red is the obv kill (Red removes on NK).
Probable Results:
(1.4.1) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red (AGM). I redirect Orange to Yellow (Tans).
(1.4.2) Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Red (AGM). I redirect Orange to Yellow (Tans).
-If (1.4.1), then Town is in great shape:
Lynch Orange and Yellow for town win.
-If (1.4.2), then Town is in even BETTER shape:
Lynch Orange and vig Yellow for town win.
(1.4)' This sort of depends if town lynches the actual Black (KK) or Andy's suspected Black (Kast).
-Mislynch on Kast should make KK the OBVIOUS Black Recruiter (note, we've already covered the case where Kast is actually the Black Recruiter).
-Red, Orange, and Yellow are obviously aiming for town PRs (too many towns, and Black can soak town vigs or lynches for them).
-Assuming town has a vig, then SK is off limits due to probable BP so Black or Red is the obv kill (Black potentially eliminates Recruiting and 1 cult member; Red removes a Kill).
Probable Results:
(1.4.1)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits Town.
(1.4.2)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.4.3)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruits Town.
(1.4.4)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub/Dekes); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.4.5)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruits Town.
(1.4.6)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Black (KK). Black Recruiting Fails.
(1.4.7)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruits Town.
(1.4.8)' Red kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Orange kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Yellow kills town PR (Andy/Kdub); Blue kills Red (AGM). Black Recruiting Fails.
-If (1.4.1)' or (1.4.2)', are both essentially auto-loss for town.
--If SK is lynched, Yellow avoids the crosskill to force the Kingmaker between Yellow and Red (this avoids a forced Town-Black Stalemate or Town win in (1.4.2)').
--If Red is lynched, SK kills Yellow and town must play Kingmaker between Yellow and SK.
--If Yellow is lynched, SK kills Red or Yellow and town plays Kingmaker between SK and remaining scum.
Town loss in all cases.
-If (1.4.3)' or (1.4.4)', then things aren't any better.
--Lynching Yellow means Yellow and Orange kill Black. Town or Black plays Kingmaker with Yellow and Orange.
--Lynching Orange means Yellow kills Black Recruiter and wins.
--Lynching Black Recruiter means Orange kills Yellow and Yellow kills either Black or Town. Last Black or Town plays Kingmaker with Yellow and Orange.
Town loss in all cases.
-If (1.4.5)' or (1.4.6)', the extra hitpoint isn't able to stop this from becoming a game of Kingmaker:
--Lynch Orange forces Red to kill Yellow. Yellow has to kill town and let them play Kingmaker.
--Lynch Red lets Orange kill Yellow and Yellow kill town for another game of Kingmaker.
--Lynch Yellow lets Orange kill either of them and they force town into another game of Kingmaker.
Town-Black is forced into Kingmaker with a scum win
-If (1.4.7)' or (1.4.8)', then town finally has a slight chance:
--Lynching Orange forces Yellow to guess at a townie or Black Recruit (killing Black Recruiter turns things into a Kingmaker between Town and Black depending if recruiting was successful). Town must then play Kingmaker between Black and Yellow. If Yellow killed the Black Recruit, then he is forced into Kingmaker between Town and Black.
--Lynching Yellow forces Yellow to kill Black. Orange has to leave Yellow alive or else he will be lynched, so this results in Kingmaker between SK and Yellow.
Low chance, but this looks like the only chance town has of winning in this case.