Newbie 1070 - Game Over

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Fri Feb 25, 2011 9:49 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

confirm

Haha, yeah I had the thread open while I was doing homework hoping for a distraction. I'd vote for my instructor but I don't think mafiascum.net's lynch ability extends to RL yet.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #1) » Sun Feb 27, 2011 11:02 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I'll go ahead and confirm that I don't know Quaroarth, and also that I got the joke.

Vote: muh316
because the Mario avatar caught my eye and I want to test my sick voting skillz before things get serious.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #2) » Sun Feb 27, 2011 4:52 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

I don't agree with a no lynch on D1 either, at least not this early. As others have said, votes put pressure on a player and can also provide information based on patterns. It seems to me like it's most crucial to get everyone involved and voting on Day one especially since it's likely some of us won't see Day two. The more information we have, the better, and that probably contributes more to winning the game long-term.

@Jack: Are you going to vote no lynch no matter what?

Unvote
my joke vote.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #3) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:21 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

muh316 wrote:I'll go ahead and
Unvote
for now.

Barefoot was pretty scared when she had 3 votes on her. This seems suspicious to me. She also placed an OMGUS on me. Also suspicious. I personally don't like giving out these instead of votes, but
FOS Barefoot-fighter

To the people saying we should no lynch, its a bad idea. Don't ask it just is, we know by experience.
Why did you decide to unvote someone you're suspicious of?
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Post Post #85 (isolation #4) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:06 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Hope editing down a quoted post for readability isn't frowned upon, there's just two segments in it I want to address.
Jack Forman wrote:Thank you all for explaining that a no lynch is used best in a 3 vs 1 game, but have any of you ever no lynched D1 or seen a game that it was done in? Its like trying new food don't knock it til you try it. Why give the mafia a free lynch on D1 when we lack the info and odds to hit a mafia? The people saying no lynch D1 could very well be mafia still pushing for the odds to be 5 vs 2. So now i am done with the odds and how everyone eles plays the game, I am here I am playing this is what sounds good to me noob or not i am still going to no lynch.
We know that there are only two scum in this game, and more than two players advocating a lynch vs. no lynch so your suggestion that scum might be pushing for a lynch makes no sense. I would also argue that you are not in fact playing the game since you've already decided your day one play three weeks before the deadline. Are you planning on just sitting the game out until day two?
Jack Forman wrote:
Rain wrote:
@Jack Forman
The reasons for No Lynch are plainly anti-town, if not scummy. It is true that a lynch is likelier to target town than scum on D1. However, this logic applies up to LyLo (a situation called Lynch or Lose, where you have 2n+1 people alive and n denotes the number of scums alive). Worst case scenario, we mislynch everyday for 2 days before we reach LyLo. If we spend even one day not lynching, we can only afford 1 mislynch before MyLo, in which case we'd have to NL again, to be at LyLo. In other words, if we decide on NL for D1, we have to hit scum within our 2 first lynches whereas if we lynch every day, our chances of survival depends on hitting scum within our first 3 lynches. Please remember that the town has control over who dies to lynches whereas mafia has total control to who dies at night.

My experience with newbies says that they usually consider NL to be safe, which is unfortunate because that's pretty scummy.
However, stubbornness is a fairly strong town tell.
Thank you rain I think we all understand how a no lynched is to be used, but you seem to just keep making the same point over and over. Now that we have all seen the odds and the wiki for a no lynch D1, you all seem like a bunch of wimps (on offense to anyone). If you really think I am mafia then lynch me, other wise cowboy/girl up and try something new.

Sorry for being such a NOOB that you all are so willing to point out, here is my final vote. :!:
Vote: NO LYNCH
Bolding in Rain's quote mine, because it seems like it might be coaching. It gives Jack potential way out after Rain spent time listing reasons not to vote no lynch.
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Post Post #86 (isolation #5) » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:09 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

muh316 wrote:Guess we have our policy lynch...
What do you mean? I've only come across lynch all lurkers and lynch all liars in the two games I've played.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #6) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:07 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa wrote:@split Do you have any particular reads on people besides Jack that you want to share? I think you brought up an interesting coaching point at Rain back in #85, though that could be a rather WIFOM-y argument, but like Rain said, may be useful in the future if either of them flip scum. What do you think of barefoot?
I'm pretty much done with Jack for now, I can't tell if he's scum or not and I don't know how I feel about a policy lynch at this point. If he actually comes back to the thread and helps us find scum, that would be great.

One thing that I find difficult in reading Rain is his role as IC. It doesn't help us to scumhunt if Rain is dropping knowledge that might be used by scum to appear more town. I don't think that part of my suspicion goes away if Jack flips town.

Right now, I don't think barefoot is the scummiest player in the game. That title goes to muh316 because he unvoted barefoot when she was in the lead, despite finding her the most suspicious. He also drops in just to respond to others mentioning him and to support what others have said about barefoot and Jack without really adding to the conversation much at all.

I found the explanation of an "active lurker" very interesting because that seemed to be what I was looking for without realizing it. I would like to hear more from T-bone, Stels, and muh316 before I vote.
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Post Post #105 (isolation #7) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:23 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Re-reading the thread, I changed my mind about not voting yet because I want to put my money where my mouth is about finding muh316 to be scummy.

VOTE: muh316

That avatar is probably Wario in disguise
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Post Post #107 (isolation #8) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:57 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa wrote:To his credit he only had one post in his ISO between the "RVS" vote and the unvote though.
What do you mean?
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Post Post #108 (isolation #9) » Tue Mar 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

EBWOP About the "to his credit" part, what is your reasoning there?
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Post Post #119 (isolation #10) » Wed Mar 02, 2011 2:28 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Quaroath wrote:As far as T-bone being on the scum list, I'm haven't put a scum list out there. I have put a list out of people I think would be far
more productive lynches for informational purposes. That list is Barefoot, stels, rain, T-bone over lynching Jack on a policy lynch.
Quaroath wrote:
I dont really have a read i'd trust on muh or T-bone due to lack of contribution.
Barefoot likes to appeal to emotion, Stels made a really forceful push to blow pre-game joke out of proportion, and you are twisting my words, frequently. You also want people to think I'm bandwagoning your votes, which I most certainly am not.
Both quotes from #117, bolding mine. It seems like a contradiction to say that a T-Bone lynch would be informative, and then later say that you don't have a read on him. What information would you expect from a T-Bone lynch? What is the difference in your mind with muh316? Do you have any thoughts about what I've said about muh?
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Post Post #139 (isolation #11) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 3:08 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Jack Forman wrote:Splitfavle- He just seems to be hung up on the mario thing and has not had very much input at this point.
I think I've been clear about why I think muh316 is scum.

To summarize: he doesn't seem to be scum hunting. The only time he's expressed any suspicion was for a player he unvoted. He just drops in to support what others have said.
muh316 wrote:As for T-bone, he reminds me of my style of playing. I don't find it fishy since I do it all the time.
T-Bone has a vote on Stels and explained why. Also, T-Bone actually seems to be playing the game while having posted in the thread about the same amount as muh316.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 4:36 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Because the thread has slowed down a bit, and I've had a nice relaxing day after my last mid-term exam, I'm going to write a nice
Lynch muh316 on D1
post:
muh316 wrote:
Vote Barefoot-fighter
For confirming last. Scum confirm last to buy themselves time.
From #29, an RVS vote, then this third post:
muh316 wrote:I'll go ahead and
Unvote
for now.

Barefoot was pretty scared when she had 3 votes on her. This seems suspicious to me. She also placed an OMGUS on me. Also suspicious. I personally don't like giving out these instead of votes, but
FOS Barefoot-fighter

To the people saying we should no lynch, its a bad idea. Don't ask it just is, we know by experience.
From #79, this is the post that got me thinking. Ellyssa was correct in noting that we had just started to come out of RVS stage, and that he seemed to be responding to her question. The problem for me, however, lies in the fact that he was barefoot's first vote and all of a sudden she was in the lead. muh316 expresses suspicion but seems hesitant to use his vote to put pressure on barefoot. Two possibilities:
A. barefoot is town, and muh316 doesn't want to be the first vote on her when she flips
B. barefoot is scum, and muh316 wants to keep her around while still weakly bussing her

For your further edification, the rest of muh316's posts (minus posts he quoted) now in convenient one-post size!
muh316 wrote:I was actually in a situation like that once. 10 minutes to deadline and 3 people were only active. I was at l-1 and nobody else was there to vote me. I came at the last minute and self-voted, I figured it was better to get a lynch day 1.

One more thing, remember, the IC can be scum. He can give out all this good info and there might be an evil mastermind behind him. So just keep that in mind. Its not that I'm accusing Rain of anything
muh316 wrote:A vote is a much more bolder statement than an FOS. A vote sends out the message " I want you dead" an FOS just declares your suspicion.
muh316 wrote:Guess we have our policy lynch...
muh316 wrote:I'm not scum. I'm just stating that the Mafia is pretty much laughing at this guy. A policy lynch is better than a no lynch.
muh316 wrote:Jack. I never said I wanted to lynch you. I never placed my vote on you. All I did was mention that you were being anti-town.
I agree with stels. If you are going for a no lynch, you won't scum hunt. Its going to hurt the town more. For now, let all this no lynch stuff go and try to look at flaws in posts, ask questions do something productive to help the town.
muh316 wrote:I didn't vote for you, therefore there was no policy lynch in the first place. There was just the idea of it though your not someone we should lynch today.

As for T-bone, he reminds me of my style of playing. I don't find it fishy since I do it all the time.
My analysis: posts helpful tips for us, especially Jack (while flippantly suggesting a policy lynch), weakly defends his unvote on barefoot (while she's the only player he's claimed to find suspicious), and tries to link his play to T-Bone's style despite not really playing much like T-Bone at all.

Finally, and I'd be inclined to dismiss this if I didn't suspect him from his subsequent playing:
muh316 wrote:
splitfarvle wrote:
Vote: muh316
because the Mario avatar caught my eye and I want to test my sick voting skillz before things get serious.
That Mario avatar was there because of a Mario themed game :)
The weakest part, I admit, since this was during RVS, but because it was RVS I didn't expect any sort of response. My main goal was to test the forum mechanics of voting and I literally picked the avatar that caught my eye. (If you just focus on this last part Jack again, look up please!) muh316's response seems defensive in a way, but like I said this part of my argument is easily the weakest.
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Post Post #143 (isolation #13) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 5:38 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

muh316 wrote:Jack. I never said I wanted to lynch you. I never placed my vote on you. All I did was mention that you were being anti-town.
I agree with stels. If you are going for a no lynch, you won't scum hunt. Its going to hurt the town more.
For now, let all this no lynch stuff go and try to look at flaws in posts, ask questions do something productive to help the town.
EBWOP Rereading my very first wall post, I wanted to bold the above.

muh316: "Do as I say, not as I do."

And I'm out /drops mic
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Post Post #158 (isolation #14) » Sat Mar 05, 2011 6:35 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

barefoot-fighter: She had some pressure on her due to perceived fence-sitting about Jack and her initial support of a No Lynch, and she didn't come across as scummy to me in her responses. Her posting style makes her seem like a new player to me. She hasn't been contributing much since, though. In my limited experience scum likes to slip through the cracks. It struck me in both games I've played how often a scum flip would elicit a "Man, I forgot he/she was even in the game" from other players. I would support a barefoot lynch at this time for that reason alone, but would prefer a replacement if she continues to lurk.

Ellyssa: Has often posted things I was thinking, and I think her playing has mostly benefited the town. The only reservation I have comes into play if muh316 flips scum, as Ellyssa offers a defense for him in post #112

Jack Forman: I really don't see why he is making so many people's town lists, but I am glad we seem to be beyond discussing the No Lynch issue (for the most part) and that he's challenging other players on different points. I'm neutral on Jack right now.

muh316: Still think he's the scummiest, and I'm comfortable with my vote. The only new point I want to bring up is something in #149:
muh316 wrote:Barefoot was not the only one I suspected.


Here's how I do it. I list everyone who I think is town. The rest are not clear enough to be considered town.
Town: Jack, split, T-bone, Rain
The other 4 I'm not very sure of what to think about them.
It makes no sense to me to say that you have suspicions for more than barefoot, then refuse to say who else you're suspicious of and why. I do not think you're playing to help the town win.

Quaroath: Initially I had a townie feeling for him. The arguments he's had have brought out a lot of defensive posting from him, and he's been more challenging to read.

Rain: Still tough to read maybe because I'm too hung up on his role as IC, but he does seem to be playing the game. I suspect my opinion on him will swing from neutral depending on D1/N1 flips.

Stels: Seems fairly clear about who he thinks is scum and why (even despite being V/LA for a spell), and I see that as more pro-town than scum.

T-Bone: Neutral. Wish I had more to say, but I have a gut feeling that keeps me from thinking he's town even though I haven't seen much from him that I would say is scummy.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #15) » Tue Mar 08, 2011 12:05 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

If you aren't having fun, why not ask for a replacement? Speaking for myself, it isn't fun having someone claiming that their scummy playing is a result of laziness.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #16) » Wed Mar 09, 2011 6:32 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Didn't see that coming, hope it was a good decision
T-Bone wrote:I'm not gonna say if I'm town or scum, because the moment you say you're town, you become a safe lynch at this stage of the game.
I know Ellyssa already mentioned this, but I'd really like to know your reasoning here. Are you saying that someone claiming to be town would get lynched?
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Post Post #238 (isolation #17) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 1:24 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Rain wrote:Still no defense. I don't see any bandwagon forming on anyone else in the near future. Also, I'm getting a bit bored in this game. Gotta make something happen.

Die scum.

Unvote
Vote: Muh316
About not seeing a bandwagon form, did you not notice barefoot-fighter was at two votes when you posted this? She had just started posting again, and it seemed like Ellyssa (hope I'm not putting words into her mouth) would've been happy to contribute to a bandwagon on barefoot as evidenced in #203 and #204.

In #153 you list barefoot as scummy, did you change your mind?

I don't think we should discount how quickly this hammer came. Posts weren't coming fast, but there were new developments.
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Post Post #240 (isolation #18) » Mon Mar 14, 2011 1:41 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

I did catch your hesitation in the post right before Rain hammered, I was just surprised that he decided to hammer because it seemed like new things were happening, albeit slowly. I just want to know why he hammered at that point instead of letting things unfold, or perhaps even helping them unfold since he previously declared suspicions about barefoot.
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Post Post #248 (isolation #19) » Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:24 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Things have gotten unexpectedly busy the last few days, I hope to start posting with gusto either tomorrow or friday.
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Post Post #256 (isolation #20) » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:11 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

It's been a long day but my thoughts have been turning towards the game and I want to weigh in with hopefully a useful post.

I was surprised that Jack got the nightkill, as I was mostly neutral towards him and I expected someone like Ellyssa, for her imo town playing, or Rain or Stels, for their relative experience, to get killed instead. Hell, I even expected myself to get nightkilled before Jack since I turn up as town in a few player's analyses. (As a side-note, I'm seeing some wisdom in T-Bone's dislike of lists)

I know that more experienced players have counseled against reading too much into either Rain's hammer, or Jack's nightkill, but in honor of Jack I'm going to be stubborn and do it anyway:

I've seen the argument about the mafia not hammering quickly so early put forward by Stels in #231, but I'm of a mind to counter with a couple of things. Firstly, it's not convincing to me because there was some talk about ending the day since the game had slowed, and someone could easily point to this talk after hammering as an excuse, which I admit Rain did not do.

What Rain did do, however, brings me to my second thought about the Jack nightkill: in the Great No Lynch Saga of D1, I brought up something that caught my eye in #85. TL;DR it seemed like Rain was coaching Jack on how to appear as town, and it seemed like Jack was following direction. Before Jack flipped, Rain said this:
Rain wrote:@splitvarvle
Yes, it does seem like coaching. However, that only becomes relevant if Jack flips scum. In my opinion, newbscums are much likelier to acquiesce to peer pressure, if only to please other people. Thus, I sincerely believe Jack Forman to be town, if newbtown.
If we're going to discuss planting seeds, I would like to point out that Rain not only links Jack's flip with his own, he also emphatically states that Jack is town.
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Post Post #258 (isolation #21) » Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:36 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

T-Bone wrote:But every post you have made in this game has been concise and deliberate. I hazard to say you've been too careful to look scummy. So much that you look uber town. And that my friends is a dangerous thing. As a member of the town you should worry about making mistakes or looking scummy. Your goal isn't to survive, your goal is to nail scum. Meanwhile the mafia's goal is to survive.
Even though Ellyssa already addressed this, I want to emphasize that T-Bone seems to be accusing her of things that he's doing as well minus the uber-town part. Further, many of his posts on D1 are either contentless defenses about his posting frequency and posting style, tips about playing the game, or votes that go nowhere because there's no followup pressure.

After all that, I'm still not ready to vote because my first D2 vote was probably going to be for barefoot and I'd really like to hear from her replacement first. I'd also like to hear from Quaroath, personal issues permitting, since my town feeling for him has steadily degraded over the course of the game.

Preview edit: Welcome to the game, Nachomamma8! You have an uphill battle with me, but I'm glad to see more pressure on Rain.
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Post Post #264 (isolation #22) » Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:07 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Rain wrote:Even if there were a competing bandwagon, I'd still have voted for muh instead of barefoot.
It was more than just a vote, though. It was the hammer on muh, ending D1 about a week before the deadline and cutting off the developments of muh and barefoot both. Now muh is gone and barefoot has replaced out, and what we have left is your actions and reasons behind them. Were you bored enough with the game to ignore what was going on in it? A lot happened on the very page you posted your hammer on, did nothing strike you as worthy of waiting a bit?
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Post Post #265 (isolation #23) » Fri Mar 18, 2011 4:20 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Game question to any/everybody: does it benefit the town to list who we think is town, or does it just give the scum ideas about who to target? Right now, I'm thinking it's better to focus on who we think is scummy.

Speaking of that, who are your (yes you!) scum picks at this point? I believe the scum are in this group: Rain, T-Bone, Nachomamma8
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Post Post #281 (isolation #24) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:15 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Thought I already voted, but somehow I didn't. Meant to vote for Rain, but I don't want to put him at L-1 yet so on to my second scummiest suspect.

VOTE: T-Bone
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Post Post #295 (isolation #25) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:22 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Quaroath wrote:@Splits post 281. That is crap.

In response to that
unvote:vote Splitfarvle
I said what I meant. My post #264 was supposed to end with a vote for Rain, which I overlooked and didn't realize until I saw the votecount.
Quaroath wrote:Money + mouth, you are seriously hedging about voting rain. As much as T-bone says he’s fine with your vote .. I’m not. A.) This could be a bussing post that could go under the radar. B.) You are already setting up a Rain vote but only by implication, this clears you for voting later by saying “Well, I said waaay back here Rain was my top suspect, I just didn’t want to L-1 him. This is the same problem T-bone has with Stels and Rains “prevotes”
Is it really that unbelievable that I wouldn't want to put a player at L-1 this early in the day, particularly considering what happened on D1? And how exactly is it supposed to go under the radar when I've been the most vocal about Rain's hammer (a point you seemed to like once upon a post) or his potential motive in the Jack NK?
Quaroath wrote:Also Splits Iso #4 seems like a serious breadcrumb for a day 2 case, when Rain was functioning in IC capacity at the time.
splitfarvle wrote:
Ellyssa wrote:@split Do you have any particular reads on people besides Jack that you want to share? I think you brought up an interesting coaching point at Rain back in #85, though that could be a rather WIFOM-y argument, but like Rain said, may be useful in the future if either of them flip scum. What do you think of barefoot?
I'm pretty much done with Jack for now, I can't tell if he's scum or not and I don't know how I feel about a policy lynch at this point. If he actually comes back to the thread and helps us find scum, that would be great.

One thing that I find difficult in reading Rain is his role as IC. It doesn't help us to scumhunt if Rain is dropping knowledge that might be used by scum to appear more town. I don't think that part of my suspicion goes away if Jack flips town.
Hard for an IC to do their job without helping both sides. And you use this as a base for your case in your ISO #20 for the case on rain.
I was/am suspicious about the concept of an IC in these games because of the potential for unethical use to aid either scum or town. Probably a healthy dose of paranoia on my part, but it's what I feel. Ideally, the IC would be able to completely separate his/her roles but we're all only human. If it helps at all, I haven't mentioned anything of the sort in my posts about Rain on D2.

If that isn't convincing, maybe a couple of old friends from #44 will explain it better:
Quaroath wrote:
muh316 wrote:One more thing, remember, the IC can be scum. He can give out all this good info and there might be an evil mastermind behind him. So just keep that in mind. Its not that I'm accusing Rain of anything
QTF. Though, I'd hope that Rain has a IC mode and a player mode. Laying stuff out as "From the IC to forward the scum line if the IC is scum is.. well.. scummy. (ha) That's not a comment of Rain either, just a comment on the IC system as a whole.
Quaroath wrote:
splitfarvle wrote:Re-reading the thread, I changed my mind about not voting yet because I want to put my money where my mouth is about finding muh316 to be scummy.

VOTE: muh316

That avatar is probably Wario in disguise
You put your money where your mouth was here, an hour and a half after waffling on Muh. I'm seriously starting to rethink my read on you. Putting Rain at L-1 would be dangerous.. but anyone who quick-hammered, or hammered period at this point in the day would be either serious poor-town, or scum quickhmmering, which is poor scum play. Either way it's bad play to hammer.
Is this an example of WIFOM? Just because you think it's bad scum play doesn't mean it wouldn't happen. And you admit it
could
be poor-town instead if it happened. Whatever wishy-washy pre-quickhammer conclusion you've come to doesn't matter, because the day ends early just the same. And how is being the first, and for quite a while only, player to build any sort of case on or vote for muh waffling about him?
Quaroath wrote:@Splits iso #14 bothers me on several levels.

Here is the post:
splitfarvle wrote:barefoot-fighter: She had some pressure on her due to perceived fence-sitting about Jack and her initial support of a No Lynch, and she didn't come across as scummy to me in her responses. Her posting style makes her seem like a new player to me. She hasn't been contributing much since, though. In my limited experience scum likes to slip through the cracks. It struck me in both games I've played how often a scum flip would elicit a "Man, I forgot he/she was even in the game" from other players. I would support a barefoot lynch at this time for that reason alone, but would prefer a replacement if she continues to lurk.

Ellyssa: Has often posted things I was thinking, and I think her playing has mostly benefited the town. The only reservation I have comes into play if muh316 flips scum, as Ellyssa offers a defense for him in post #112

Jack Forman: I really don't see why he is making so many people's town lists, but I am glad we seem to be beyond discussing the No Lynch issue (for the most part) and that he's challenging other players on different points. I'm neutral on Jack right now.

muh316: Still think he's the scummiest, and I'm comfortable with my vote. The only new point I want to bring up is something in #149:
muh316 wrote:Barefoot was not the only one I suspected.


Here's how I do it. I list everyone who I think is town. The rest are not clear enough to be considered town.
Town: Jack, split, T-bone, Rain
The other 4 I'm not very sure of what to think about them.
It makes no sense to me to say that you have suspicions for more than barefoot, then refuse to say who else you're suspicious of and why. I do not think you're playing to help the town win.

Quaroath: Initially I had a townie feeling for him. The arguments he's had have brought out a lot of defensive posting from him, and he's been more challenging to read.

Rain: Still tough to read maybe because I'm too hung up on his role as IC, but he does seem to be playing the game. I suspect my opinion on him will swing from neutral depending on D1/N1 flips.

Stels: Seems fairly clear about who he thinks is scum and why (even despite being V/LA for a spell), and I see that as more pro-town than scum.

T-Bone: Neutral. Wish I had more to say, but I have a gut feeling that keeps me from thinking he's town even though I haven't seen much from him that I would say is scummy.
1st: Jack Forman: Srsly? You don’t want to make a read on the easiest to read player in the game? That’s serious D1 fence sitting. Even saying you think he's probably one or the other is better than "I have no read on the most discussed player"

2nd: Myself/Stels in this post. So you had an initial townie feeling for me, that went away. What caused it to go away? Was it my making it “fairly clear who I thought was scum?” My defensive posting came from getting into it with Stels and Rain. Or is that more scummy than pro-town? How does being clear about who you think is scum read as pro-town. T-bone thinks Elyssa is scum. That makes him town… right? This one post is riddled with issues you are contradicting.

What I get out of this post is, I think Muh is scum, but really don’t have a read on anyone else. Everyone else is neutral- town lean. This sounds very T-boneish. As in, tunnel a suspect.

"Lets see if I can convince others, he's the most scummy townie."


For the record, my gut is screaming at me that Stels is town now. This really pisses me off for reasons I can’t explain.

Pps. My wife has Pneumonia, and a parasite she's going to carry around for 9 months then keep around for at least 18 years. At the same time! :)
I probably did tunnel muh, but he was the scummiest player to me by far. barefoot didn't give me much to work with that others hadn't already picked over, and I was having trouble with pinpointing my gut feeling about T-Bone. Rain was a distant consideration until the hammer. Also, I didn't seem to need to convince anyone else to vote for muh, he convinced them himself. Most of the commentary on my case was that it was unconvincing.

And yes, Srsly! It doesn't matter to me that a lot of other players thought Jack was town. My read on him for the entirety of D1 was this: a disruptive player who seemed to be slipping in and doing some scumhunting towards the end, with no input at all in the couple of days before the hammer. In fact, he finally changed his No Lynch vote to muh shortly after I gave that read on him. Being totally honest, at the end of D1 he was my third scum suspect after barefoot and Rain.

I don't see the contradiction you mentioned, as both you and Stels had very different D1s. I saw you start with questions and pressure on other players, then everything went screwy as I found both sides of the argument between you and Rain to be lacking. You also seem to change your mind almost out of nowhere, which makes it harder for me to peg your alignment. So I guess you did make it "fairly clear who you thought was scum" in your posts, at least until the next time you posted.
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Post Post #300 (isolation #26) » Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:14 am

Post by splitfarvle »

T-Bone wrote:See what a little discussion gets us guys? People like Quaroth "confirming" other players based on no actual facts. Quaroth, that's not called "confirming" that's called buddying. Same thing for you Rain, you don't know that Ellyssa is town, unless YOU are scum. However, other than that comment I like the rest of Quaroth's points, so maybe he made a legit town mistake. I don't know.
By buddying, do you mean something like this?
T-Bone wrote:@Split - Actually I'm much more okay with your vote then Stels and Rain's prevote. Unlike them, you're taking responsibility for your vote. When I flip town, it's gonna make everyone who lynched me look bad. But, as a member of the town you shouldn't worry about that. I like it. Not so much the vote on me, but actually having the conviction to do so.
T-Bone wrote:Now I'm going to do something shocking and change my tune a little bit. I am much happier with your rebuttals than your original post. Do I think you were seedplanting? 100%. Do I think you were breadcrumbing a vote on me? 100%. But like Split you are taken responsibility for your vote, and part of me doesn't see scum doing that. After these last few posts by Stels, Nacho, and Rain, you're looking like a less desirable lynch.
Everyone you mention in #285 gets an attack except the two players currently voting for you.
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Post Post #314 (isolation #27) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 1:22 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

@Nacho

What do you think about Jack's nightkill? Do you have any opinion as to why barefoot played the way she did? i.e. being wishy-washy and then disappearing for most of D1? What do you think about Quaroath's case on me?
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Post Post #317 (isolation #28) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:25 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

@T-Bone
T-Bone wrote:But, if you must know I am considering the Rain vote myself. But for now, I don't need to move my vote from where it is.
T-Bone wrote:As for my suspicion of Rain, it's just something I'm keeping in the back of my mind. I echo the sentiments that have been said about him thus far. Fair points have been made about him. I don't need to repeat them.
I don't really mind if you repeat others, especially since Rain is the only person besides Ellyssa you've expressed an interest in voting for. You've been aggressive about voting and stating why for the entire game. What's interesting is that you made these statements when you and Rain were tied, and since then you've unvoted Ellyssa, defended yourself from Rain and brought up fishing and his case on Stels all without voting for him. I can see how it might be taken as scummy to vote for Rain at this point since you two would be tied, but
T-Bone wrote:As a member of the town you should
n't
worry about making mistakes or looking scummy. Your goal isn't to survive, your goal is to nail scum. Meanwhile the mafia's goal is to survive.
Bolded part added by me, based on a correction he claimed in his exchange with Ellyssa here#266

It seems like you're trying to get Rain lynched instead of you without actually contributing a vote that could bite you later.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #29) » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:51 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

@Nacho
Nachomamma8 wrote:I think that Stels is town because of how transparent he's been this game. As scum, he's a bit more reserved. He avoided the muh bandwagon yesterday, but didn't call muh town for cred after the lynch. He's also had some really good scumhunting this game (#9 and #12, especially), and nothing he has done has been remotely scummy.
What was good about Stels' scumhunting in #9 and #12? One thing common in both posts is that he expresses strong suspicion of barefoot (you!) and Quaroath, whom he votes for at the end of #12.
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Post Post #327 (isolation #30) » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:31 am

Post by splitfarvle »

T-Bone and Rain are my scum picks. I think Ellyssa and Stels are town, and I'm leaning town for Nacho. I've been trying to figure out why Quaroath is playing the way he is and I'm still not sure what to think. I would like to hear more from him about his vote on Stels.
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Post Post #338 (isolation #31) » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:18 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Can we get a consensus going for either T-Bone or Stels? I'm not feeling the case on Stels, I'll re-read the thread and consider it though. I tend to be really busy Tues thru Thurs, but I'll do my best to make a final case asap.
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Post Post #359 (isolation #32) » Fri Apr 01, 2011 2:14 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I stand by my vote as well. Most of T-Bone's posts don't have any scumhunting behind them, and he tries to melt into the background after failing to get Ellyssa lynched. I think it's really odd how he's said a few times that Rain is one of his suspects but he hasn't pursued this at all beyond dropping a couple of comments towards Rain, not a town thing to do imo. Town would also do more than just say "Well at least you'll know who's the real scum once I flip town!" I just don't buy his excuse that he always looks scummy no matter what his alignment is. Even if that's true, it doesn't preclude him from being scum.

Do we have a backup plan in case Nacho either isn't willing or able to drop the hammer before the deadline? Is anyone willing to switch their vote to avoid a No Lynch? I'd like to see Rain lynched before Stels, anyone agree?
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Post Post #379 (isolation #33) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 2:11 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I have a proposal as well, that we lynch Ellyssa and Nacho.

I'm the cop, Rain and Stels are town.
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Post Post #383 (isolation #34) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 4:21 am

Post by splitfarvle »

First post from my phone, if it messes up I won't be able to post again until I get home this evening.

My strategy was to investigate those I didn't think would get NKed, Stels on N1 and Rain on N2. I was trying to walk a fine line between saving Stels on D2 and revealing what I knew.

As to my vote, I'm waiting for Rain and Stels to come to a consensus and then I'll drop the hammer myself.
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Post Post #385 (isolation #35) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 7:37 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I'll have to wait until later for indepth responses since I can't quote and it's difficult to write long posts while I'm at work.

I did think Rain would be a target because he's the IC, but I only threw Stels in there because I wanted to avoid anyone bringing up that he's experienced as well and challenge me. I was trying some misdirection so that I wouldn't have to discuss Stels much and potentially let something slip about being the cop. Out of everyone I didn't think would get the N1 kill, I picked Stels because he couldn't be challenged for having a vote on muh, or challenged much at all for his D1 playing on D2.

I am sure about my information, but neither Rain or Stels are so all that can be done is to wait until they decide who to lynch and go along with them. I won't lynch either of them or myself. If they want me to build cases in light of the information I've gotten I will, but probably not until tomorrow evening at the absolute earliest.
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Post Post #388 (isolation #36) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:48 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa wrote:
splitfarvle wrote: My strategy was to investigate those I didn't think would get NKed, Stels on N1 and Rain on N2. I was trying to walk a

fine line between saving Stels on D2 and revealing what I knew.

As to my vote, I'm waiting for Rain and Stels to come to a consensus and then I'll drop the hammer myself.
Or that you knew that wouldn't get NKed, anyway. How did you think they wouldn't get NKed, if you weren't involved in discussing who to kill or not kill, when you said the exact opposite near the start of Day 2 in #256, that,
splitfarvle in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2885392#p2885392]#256[/url] wrote:I was surprised that Jack got the nightkill, as I was mostly neutral towards him and I expected someone like Ellyssa, for her imo town playing, or Rain or Stels, for their relative experience, to get killed instead. Hell, I even expected myself to get nightkilled before Jack since I turn up as town in a few player's analyses.
Outside of hinting I wouldn't be killed again.. if you were a cop, you DID expect that one of them may have been killed due to experience, so using your logic of investigating someone you didn't think was going to be NKed, T-Bone or Quaroath or barefoot/Nacho should have been your D1 investigation, not Stels. Especially since you had lingering doubts of T-Bone from D1, according to your ISO.
To further expand on my N1 investigation, the wiki suggested I consider the future of the town instead of just who I thought was scummy. I decided that the mafia would kill players that probably wouldn't get lynched or that were an immediate threat to them. I also considered who might not be drawn out to post more through pressure (because of votes or D1 play) on D2 and thus slip through the cracks. Stels fit the criteria I set for myself.
Ellyssa wrote:Furthermore, if you were cop, why would you bother waiting for them to come to a consensus? What consensus exactly? Which one is a "safer" mislynch (note, I don't know Nacho's alignment, not saying he's town) and thus which one is better to hop on, whether they believe the more pro-town or the scummier target you've picked? You have your two scum, the game is won, and voting one or the other wouldn't hurt.
That
shows you aren't certain of your information, which you would be if you were a cop.
Stels and Rain are sure of their own alignment, but not of each other's or mine. All I can do is convince them I'm telling the truth and vote along with them. Unless, of course, you're willing to vote for yourself or your scumbuddy Nacho. How about it?
Ellyssa wrote:Rereading some of your posts in a scummy light, they seem to show you building a very carefully neutral stance, mostly agreeing with others opinions (and occasionally adding or rephrasing an argument on them) but generally only when others have already started attacking them.
I would think that rereading anybody's posts in a scummy light would make them look scummy. And I really don't see how this opinion jives with my D1 playing, remember muh? Or me building a case on Rain on D2?
Ellyssa wrote:
splitfarvle in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2931099#p2931099]#359[/url] wrote:Do we have a backup plan in case Nacho either isn't willing or able to drop the hammer before the deadline? Is anyone willing to switch their vote to avoid a No Lynch? I'd like to see Rain lynched before Stels, anyone agree?
That struck me as weird at the time as well, though I didn't quite grasp why then. It's obvious now though, while you can explain it as trying to avoid a lynch on Stels, wouldn't a cop try to convince one of those voting for him to vote for T-Bone and ending the day instead? Since you thought he was scum? Instead with under 48 hours to go to the deadline, you ponder the possibility of starting a new bandwagon on a scummy-looking Rain (Whom you now declare town because either he's scum and your buddy, or that he's town so that he feels vindicated and thus more inclined to vote with you), perhaps hoping due to inactivity that another partial bandwagon starts and the day ends in a no-lynch instead. It smells of playing for a draw, since it would make no functional difference to the outcome if Nacho hadn't posted, whether I was the one to swap and hammer Stels, as I said I would just after, or if you did.
This seems like a convoluted point you're trying to make. How exactly would I keep Stels from being lynched without claiming? The only way I could see was to provide an alternative that I thought was scummy and see if we could avoid either a No Lynch or lynching Stels. If I go to bat really hard for a townie on D2 without knowing there's a doc, all we get is one confirmed town on D3.
Ellyssa wrote:I don't know that you'd be able to build a case as me and bf/Nacho as scum partners due to interactions, and I'm not going to try either as I know that's not true. Feel free to. I will point out though that according to your theory, if I and Nacho were scum, T-Bone-townie seemed the scummier one by the middle of D2, and he would have been a much easier mislynch come D3 and I had several days to swap my vote to Stels-townie to lynch him right away when he was at L-1, especially when I called out what I saw as a contradiction from him in my #353 and could have used that as a late-day excuse to lynch him right away. Since essentially no one else agreed with T-Bone on any of his arguments by the end, it doesn't make sense that I didn't. Point being I think my play has been clearly with the town's best interests at heart and speaks for itself otherwise. Even though I was ultimately on both mislynchwagons - so were you, split.
It isn't a theory, it is fact that Rain, Stels, and I are town. You seem incredibly defensive now without me having tried to build a case at all. Why are you defending yourself against things I haven't said? Did you read your own ISO and realize you made a scumslip somewhere?
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Post Post #389 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:18 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Class is over, forgot to answer Rain about why I investigated him last night: I thought Ellyssa or Nacho would get the NK, so it was between you and Quaroath. You had been getting more pressure than him, but I was seriously considering his playstyle and how he was generating discussion. If he was town, that makes him a good NK target. If he was scum, I thought he could be drawn out to post a lot on D3. I was far less confident about getting you to post and perhaps slip up.

Back to studying!
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Post Post #390 (isolation #38) » Wed Apr 06, 2011 3:43 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Triple Post! I really need to learn not to try playing the game when I'm busy, multitasking keeps my thoughts scattered.

@Rain and Stels: I feel the best way to convince you that I'm telling the truth is to give you the info I have (done) and letting you decide what to do with it. I don't want to push for either Ellyssa or Nacho because I think that if you guys make the decision to lynch one today, then I can't be accused of bussing which could become important on D4. But today is the hard part. Ellyssa and Nacho will both flip scum, the ball is in your court. Expect the best cases I can muster on both by this weekend.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 07, 2011 2:05 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Interesting conclusion, maybe if I further explain my thought process you can see where I'm coming from. I'm the cop, on D3 in lylo, and my investigations have revealed who both scum are by deduction all at once. Who do I push for, exactly? Ellyssa has appeared to be the most protown player in the game since D1, and there just isn't much to see with Nacho's ISO. I know they're both scum, but I have to convince the remaining town that I'm telling the truth.

I could've not claimed, or lied and said vanilla, but then I run into a credibility problem later.

I could've just revealed my knowledge about one of them hoping that the other one incriminates the pairing, but that seemed risky and also I still run into a credibility problem for withholding info.

Nacho will most likely put me at L-1, but it's early yet and I hope you'll give me the chance to change your mind Stels. A thought experiment: If I was scum, why would I go through all this when I could've just built a case against you, the almost D2 lynch, instead? Or just sat back and let it happen on it's own?
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Post Post #401 (isolation #40) » Thu Apr 07, 2011 3:05 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

@Stels

Ok then, why then wouldn't I claim cop and say my investigation turned you up as scum? Or any other player for that matter? You seem to think you're unlynchable for some reason, despite the fact that you got really close on D2. Rain was one of those votes, and Ellyssa just had that weird defensive post where she said she had a reason to vote for you earlier in D2 but didn't. (I will definitely return to her post later if she doesn't respond to what I said earlier about it.) She also said earlier that I was her strongest town read, do you think that if she were town and I were scum she wouldnt've have lynched you today? Do you think my attempt to avoid your lynch on D2 was just so I could set up this endgame where I accuse Ellyssa and Nacho?
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Post Post #403 (isolation #41) » Thu Apr 07, 2011 4:58 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

I raised the possibility of a safer tactic to take if I was scum, that of pushing for the lynch of someone who almost got lynched on D2. You denied the possibility that it could happen and I countered with how it could. You still deny that you might've gotten lynched on D2 and I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. My point is that you and Rain were probably the best candidates for a lynch on D3, so why wouldn't I go the easier route if I was scum? Or why not NK you and point to trying to get Rain lynched instead on D2 for cred? After all, I am 0-2 with muh and T-Bone, couldn't I use some cred today if I wanted to push the lynch of a townie? It's pure dumb luck that things have turned out the way they have, but I'm going to do my best to make the most of it.

BTW, Ellyssa herself suggested that you consider Split/Ellyssa. Rather "helpful" of her, no?
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Post Post #406 (isolation #42) » Fri Apr 08, 2011 1:07 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa wrote:Well yes, of course that is a legit assumption to make about who Mafia would be after, but my point was that you're saying you picked Stels because you didn't think he would be NKed, and I brought up a quote from you which directly contradicted that, saying that you thought after N1 that he had had a decent chance of being NKed by virtue of being one of the two remaining SE/IC. You obviously can't say you picked Rain N1 because of your attacks on him on D2, so you're trying to pigeonhole the Stels investigation into that slot, and I'm pointing out the logic there doesn't jive in comparison to the quote I linked.
As a newish player, and new at being a cop, I was unsure how to use the information about Stels' innocence. If he had turned up guilty, my plan was to try to find his partner during D2 before I claimed well before the deadline. I really wanted some breathing room while I considered it and didn't want to be challenged to talk about Stels on anyone's terms but my own. I lied, and hindsight tells me that it was a bad call. I shouldn't have put him in that list.
Ellyssa wrote: Oh I don't know, your scumbuddy Rain magically seems pretty certain I'm scum a post or two after yours, without waiting for rebuttals or anything of the sort.
You mean just like how he played towards the end of D1 and all of D2? Considering that, is this somehow out of character?
Ellyssa wrote:Why would you be willing to "lead" a wagon on say, muh, back in D1, based on deductive work, but now suddenly when you have cop information you're kitten-shy with regards to dropping that vote? I think you're hedging your bet and wanting to see which one gets the crucial townie misvote before you vote. Mafia love voting last in Lylo - it allows them to swing a wagon one way or the other.
I didn't know who the scum were on D1, or D2. Now I know who both of them are and will vote for either. Voting is a secondary task, convincing Stels and Rain is my primary task. How is it hedging my vote when I will hammer either you or Nacho? And how do you know what Mafia love?
Ellyssa wrote:- If you and Stels are Mafia, the game would be over by now because you've both posted since Rain has, so you'd have quickhammered me. Thus Stels is 100% town, since he's town in your theory too.
- If you and Nacho are Mafia, then Rain is voting for me and is the crucial townie misvote, so you may be waiting on Nacho's return and vote before you vote me as well, so Rain doesn't get cold feet and back out. This does hinge on his reaction/vote, but is also why I think Rain is the other Mafia - experienced town would
never
do this without being absolutely sure after having examined all the evidence first.
- If you and Rain are Mafia, then you still need to convince Stels, which you seem to be quite desperately doing at the moment, or Nacho or me, which won't happen anymore since we know you're scum from the fake investigation.
I am desperate to convince Stels, it's the only way for town to win the game. How do you, as a brand-new player, know what an experienced player would
never
do? And I don't need to convince you or Nacho, because you both already know I'm telling the truth.
Ellyssa wrote: Yes, fair enough, I started to make a point and was going to pull out a couple quotes from your ISO to back that up, but got sidetracked with that comparison thing instead, trying to figure out the other scum. Though our play has been very similar in a way, since I built the case on T-Bone and started his wagon in D2 too. And both our wagons were mislynches. And either your case on Rain was wrong as well, if you were a cop (which you aren't), or that is classic distancing from your scumbuddy because I believe he only ever really bothered defending himself on one point, which was the hammer on muh, and Rain's rebuttals seem like contrived, half-hearted "yeah, i'm not worried you'll lynch me, let me fight back just a little to look realistic" attempts. Actually looking at your ISO, the only three posts that really attack Rain are #17, #20 and #22 and they're all about the hammer plus one reference to coaching in D1.

All subsequent ones are hints dropped while talking to players that you already think he's scum. Quaroath even calls you out for hedging your vote against voting Rain, and while your point is valid there that you didn't want to put him into L-1 early in D2, you also spent the rest of the day saying others should vote him, while your vote was firmly on my T-Bone wagon. Even after Quaroath unvoted and the day went on, and Nacho was the only one still voting him. Hell, for all the wondering even on the last 48 hours whether anyone was still willing to lynch Rain, it ultimately took the person with the only other vote ON Rain switching his vote to end the day. You were obviously trying to distance yourself from Rain without actually voting him and putting him in danger.
Suggesting Rain as an alternate lynch when a No Lynch was a possibility is hardly spending the rest of the day saying others should vote for him. The more T-Bone posted, the more I wanted to see him lynched first so my vote stayed. I wasn't going to move my vote until I was sure that Rain would be lynched instead of Stels. I thought there was a good chance that Nacho would vote for T-Bone, but I wasn't completely sure it would happen.
Ellyssa wrote:Classic misdirection here. I did not say you should claim to save Stels or "prove" his innocence. I said, and bolded for reference, that a townie cop would have tried to convince Quaroath or Rain (or Nacho) to vote T-Bone instead, as that was a much more likely thing to happen than a brand new wagon on Rain with 48 hours to go, like you instead suggested. That made no sense and that was playing for a draw instead for a kill.

If you were a cop, you knew Stels was town and T-Bone and Rain were scummy, but why phrase your thoughts about avoiding no-lynch as "I'd rather lynch the L-3 wagon (but someone else has to initiate it - I'll keep my vote on this one!) than that other L-1 wagon that I know is town" instead of "Hey guys, there are two L-1 wagons, and here's my case on why you should vote this one with me as this guy is scummier".

To re-rephrase, a townie cop would have written a "lynch T-Bone (instead of Stels) on D2" post instead of a "hey, let's perhaps spread our votes out with under 48 hours to go" post.
Perhaps, but again, the harder I go to bat for a townie, the likelier I draw scum attention. But to play it out your way, remember Rain saying that his vote stays except in the face of ungodly proof? Do you think you could've convinced Quaroath to change his vote from Stels when his "head and thought process scream scum"? Like I said above, I thought Nacho was likely to vote for T-Bone, but I wanted an alternative to Stels in case Nacho changed his mind out of nowhere or didn't make it back to the thread. Remember, the only player who said they were willing to change a vote to avoid a No Lynch was you.

Ellyssa wrote:Nope, just anticipating and cutting you off. Of course I'm defensive - you're accusing me of being Mafia, on a gambit that will end the game! I'm not just going to sit back and let this happen.
I find this response to be unsatisfactory, so I'm going to try my point again in a later post when I build my full case against you.
Ellyssa wrote:What? "They're both scum but I don't want to push either of them because when I'm
right
I'll look more suspicious on D4?" So instead of pushing/making cases on either of us, you're going to let them "come to a consensus" with Rain trying to influence Stels using his former-enemies-now-buddies-cred, and once either of me or Nacho have double votes on us, then you'll move in and pounce? Ah, gotcha.

(addressing later points later)
Again, my main task is to convince them I'm telling the truth. Voting comes after. Not being able to be accused of bussing will make D4 a lot easier. And yes, if you or Nacho goes to L-1 I will indeed pounce and hammer.
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Post Post #407 (isolation #43) » Fri Apr 08, 2011 1:29 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa wrote:Yes and perhaps you can tell us why in endgame. I can turn the argument around and ask why you think we then offed Jack, and then Quaroath, if we were scum, but I'm sure you can't come up with any plausible reason either. Nor do I have strong reasons as to why you/Rain or you/Nacho would have done it.
As for Jack, Nacho had an interesting thought about a player being eager to end the day meaning he might be a power role. A slip? Possibly, since barefoot notified us she was being replaced out right at the start of D2. That could mean that she requested a replacement while you and she were having your night talk, and it only seems fair for you and Nacho to get a chance to confab before the start of D2. No idea about Quaroath, maybe your feared his unpredictability and were unsure if you could convince him to lynch the townie you picked. According to Nacho, that player is Rain. And we see that both Stels and I were willing to lynch him on D2, while Quaroath believed him to be town.
Ellyssa wrote:What is the easier route exactly? Besides the theory about picking Stels/Rain as town targets (rather than me/Nacho as scum targets) for your gambit to buddy them together, maybe you realised that every single vote I've placed this game has been well-explained and that I would be the more likely one to see holes in the game plan if I were analyzing as one of the two "confirmed town"? I think you didn't want to leave the lylo decision to me, is what it boils down to.

Or perhaps, another theory if we want to talk about possible reasons why you picked Stels and Rain as your townies, it could be that you picked Rain as an "I pushed him hard in D2, therefore obviously I investigated him in N2 and he turned up town!", and between me, Nacho and Stels, you had no reason to investigate me N1 (via your investigating unlikely NK targets theory) and between Nacho and Stels, Stels is newer and therefore you picked him, hinging your hopes that he would misvote.
I think that almost anything would have been easier if I were scum that what has actually transpired.
Ellyssa wrote: Also, yes to being "helpful", this is a newbie game after all and regardless of who wins, I'd like to be an IC in the future so I try to point things out too? Plus the fact that I was at the point still considering a 3 way split between who split's partner was, whereas he seemed to be focussing on just one.
I'll return to this in the case I'm building.
Ellyssa wrote:One more thing to expand on my point in the last post about you picking Stels as your N1 investigation target, you said, in D1, your 3rd last post of the day,
splitfarvle in [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=2854815#p2854815]#158[/url] wrote: barefoot-fighter: She had some pressure on her due to perceived fence-sitting about Jack and her initial support of a No Lynch, and she didn't come across as scummy to me in her responses. Her posting style makes her seem like a new player to me. She hasn't been contributing much since, though. In my limited experience scum likes to slip through the cracks. It struck me in both games I've played how often a scum flip would elicit a "Man, I forgot he/she was even in the game" from other players. I would support a barefoot lynch at this time for that reason alone, but would prefer a replacement if she continues to lurk.
<snip>
Stels: Seems fairly clear about who he thinks is scum and why (even despite being V/LA for a spell), and I see that as more pro-town than scum.
It doesn't fit at all that you'd investigate a pro-town target that you acknowledged could have had the possibility to get NKed due to newbie scum getting rid of experienced players, but that you had a leaning-town read on, rather than investigating who you thought was a lurker and was leaning-scum on. I don't think that thing in the wiki about investigating for the future really applies in Newbie games where there are only 2 scum and one kill a night. Why would the cop townhunt on D1?
It doesn't matter what games you think the wiki should apply to, I chose to consider the advice and found it sound. I already explained my N1 investigation choice, maybe you'll be the cop in your next game then you can play it how you want. But in this one you're scum, and my investigations have caught you.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #44) » Sat Apr 09, 2011 11:36 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I've had a family emergency so I'll post some of what I have and get back to the game in a few days.

Ellyssa, new player or not, has obviously done her homework about the game of Mafia. For the entire game she's shown a clear understanding on how things work for both town and scum, and is quick to ask questions when she doesn't. It seems as though she's played a good town game with generating discussion and most players have been convinced she's town.

I think that she came into D3 confident of a scum win, and my reveal has thrown her off.
Ellyssa wrote:I don't know that you'd be able to build a case as me and bf/Nacho as scum partners due to interactions, and I'm not going to try either as I know that's not true. Feel free to. I will point out though that according to your theory, if I and Nacho were scum, T-Bone-townie seemed the scummier one by the middle of D2, and he would have been a much easier mislynch come D3 and I had several days to swap my vote to Stels-townie to lynch him right away when he was at L-1, especially when I called out what I saw as a contradiction from him in my #353 and could have used that as a late-day excuse to lynch him right away. Since essentially no one else agreed with T-Bone on any of his arguments by the end, it doesn't make sense that I didn't. Point being I think my play has been clearly with the town's best interests at heart and speaks for itself otherwise. Even though I was ultimately on both mislynchwagons - so were you, split.
She says she doesn't know if I'd be able to build a case on her and Nacho as a scumteam, and that she's not going to try either. Why would she consider trying? I strongly doubt that, in all her research, a town strategy has popped up that either recommends trying to build a case on yourself or demanding that another player build a case on themselves. Scum might want to, however, in order to make sure that they've covered their tracks. And in this same segment, we see she reverses what she already said about not trying to build a case on herself and Nacho. It seems to me to be a convoluted point to make that somehow she's town because T-Bone would've made an easier lynch on D3 than Stels. Nacho would've had to reverse what he'd already said about Stels being town in order to switch votes, and Ellyssa pointing out a contradiction really doesn't seem to be a good reason to switch in the face of a case on T-Bone that spanned several points and much of D2.

After appearing unsure, then confident, then contradicting herself, she thinks she's made a point that somehow proves that her "play has been clearly with the town's best interests at heart and speaks for itself otherwise." And then back to being unsure, as she points out she was on both mislynchwagons. She points out that I was as well, but the difference between us is I'm not scrambling around trying to appear more town:
Ellyssa wrote:Also

@Stels, if you are town, in all fairness you should consider the split/Nacho or split/Ellyssa teams as well, as he could be naming 1 town-1 scum and trying to kill one scum to get town cred, and promptly use that to lynch the other.
If she was town, why would she suggest this? She claims she's practicing to be an IC. In the middle of something that will decide this game. On a player more experienced than her. I think that the answer is that she's rattled deeply for the first time in the game, and is looking for reassurance from Stels that he is truly disbelieving me.

She also said that she sees me as desperate to convince Stels, and I am. Stels sees my strategy of letting him and Rain decide where my vote goes as buddying. I'm not trying to buddy and I've explained my strategy. I don't think there's a counter-buddying argument to be found for this:
Ellyssa wrote:I won't be able to post walls of text before tomorrow if not later (though I'm reading along), but do you want me to unvote as well then? I have a vote on split at the moment.
If you were town, you should be 100% behind my lynch. Asking Stels what you should do with your vote doesn't make sense either since you claim not to know if he's town or not. But you do know he's town. If I was scum, all that would be left for you to do is to find the other scum. But instead, you are simultaneously trying to discredit me, appear more town, and buddying up to Stels.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #45) » Sun Apr 10, 2011 10:44 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Sorry town, I did my best. Any critiques on becoming a better player would be welcome.
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Post Post #424 (isolation #46) » Sun Apr 10, 2011 3:00 pm

Post by splitfarvle »

Ellyssa already had a vote on me, so unless I missed her unvoting that's the hammer.

BTW thanks for the condolences Ellyssa. Thankfully it turned out to be a relatively minor thing and I'm home now.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #47) » Mon Apr 11, 2011 6:53 am

Post by splitfarvle »

Congrats Quaroath! My son just turned 5 months, and the best advice I can give is: Sleep now! Before it's too late!

My 2 cents for Ellyssa: I think your meta might get you into trouble down the line, so maybe consider toning down the townie vibes. Fwiw I think you'd be a good IC.
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Post Post #441 (isolation #48) » Wed Apr 13, 2011 7:32 am

Post by splitfarvle »

I would appreciate it Nacho

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