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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:11 pm

Post by Krazy »

On that note Umbrage, I would add that in http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2682025 "Suspiciously Average Mafia" he replaced into a game from a D1 fake PGO claim to a winning endgame as scum.

Ironically, the town in that game instantly responded "I've seen more fake PGO claims than I have real ones!" But they WIFOM'd themselves out of a lynch.

So Xtoxm would have experience with early fake-town claims D1 resulting in a winning end-games.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:48 pm

Post by DarthYoshi »

Vordark wrote:Lurker = easy target, easy vote. And five votes for a lurker when there are more suspicious players is a joke.
This is not the only element of the case against him. People have been pointing out more than lurking in their ISOs of him. What exactly about his play is giving you a town read? Come to think of it, why do you have such a strong townread on Abelcain as well?
Vordark wrote:CS's posts, in particular his replies to mine regarding DathYoshi, are serious chainsaws and pushing an easy wagon. For example, in CS's long post (#299), he offers a chainsaw of Umbrage against myself, SE and Ythan, he offers a chainsaw of DY against me, then finally pushes a vote of xtoxm based on lurking and, wait for it, another chainsaw for DY.

I'm calling DarthYoshi, ConSpiracy and Umbrage scum, in order of relative certainty. I think there's an outside chance Umbrage is just tunneling town, but either way I think he deserves a vig shot tonight when DY flips scum.
This might be the least helpful bit of scumhunting so far in the game. You’re going to call the scumteam as a conclusion to a previous paragraph that consists entirely of associative tells before anyone flips? Rly?
Vordark wrote:This xtoxm wagon advanced much faster than I'd expect a wagon on anything but obvscum to go. Coupled with the lurking town vibe I'm getting off him, I'm inclined to believe scum are pushing it.


Your warrant for claiming that scum are driving the Xtoxm wagon is because people hopped onto it so fast as of late, but CS and I are your two leading scumspects, and we’ve been voting Xtoxm for a while. Can’t have it both ways, mate. And one of those quick votes—Abelcain’s—you basically dismiss out of hand in #419 for being ‘null.’ Okay, voting for a lurker may be null in a vacuum, but you're ignoring the whole picture. For instance, when did AC vote for Xtoxm? After a couple of players already laid the groundwork to do so, which would plausibly make jumping onto the wagon safer and easier. To use Regfan’s scale, if anything, this would be, say, an S1 scumtell.
Iamusername wrote:This was the main thrust of the argument, to which he says nothing. No explanation for why it is that he thinks Snake is scum, or why he thinks Umbrage is scum. All he responds to a somewhat facetious closing remark with a statement that's totally unrelated to the main issue here.
I cited RL obligations as to why I didn’t respond to everything in your ISO. If you think that really is indicative of alignment, let me know.

In short, I doubted that the SE/Umbrage quarrel was a bus. The Umbrage wagon petered out pretty quick, it wasn’t like SE would have had a ton to gain on D1 by continuing to bus Umbrage, since bussing doesn’t reap rewards until a flip happens. And, FWIW, if I just wanted to paint anyone as scummy, then I would have manufactured some reason to say I saw their interactions as indicative of a bus. Surprise surprise, I didn’t, and I’m not.

Re: Abelcain—this post is already long enough, and I addressed one of my issues with AC’s play earlier (his hop onto the Xtoxm wagon) so I’m going to keep it brief—I think he has been trying to appear helpful to town without actually being altogether that helpful. Some of the things that Regfan is noting as town tells—like joining the discussion on the setup/massclaim speculation—I don’t see as a town tell. It is partly why I said what I said regarding the massclaim—if the setup could truly be broken via D1 massclaim, IT WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN APPROVED. So, a scum could join in that discussion, appear helpful to town, all the while knowing that there is no significant risk to having to concoct a fakeclaim because town would realize that a massclaim wouldn’t crack the game open. You take that material out, and the only substantive content he’s offered as of late are a pair of ISOs. His latest post (#407) has some content, but also includes stuff like the retort to Umbrage that seems to care more about digging at issues of personality rather than alignment. He's currently my #2 suspect after Xtoxm.

In any case, I remain fine with my vote where it is. Xtoxm showed no interest in scumhunting well before he gave off signs of being bored or fed up with the game. He picked up his prod immediately but still contributed next to nothing.

Finally,
Snake Eyes wrote:As for what this makes DY, originally I thought xtoxm being scum would mostly clear DY, but Regfan makes a good point that if they're both scum, as unlikely as it is to have 2 leading scumwagons, then xtoxm's vanilla claim and giving up makes sense.
How exactly is it a good point when you admit how far-fetched the scenario really is to have two leading wagons on scum?

Quaraoth—sorry to hear about your wife, man, that’s awful. I hope she’s okay. I kinda feel like a dick for FoSing you.

And, this thread needs more Ythan.
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Sat Mar 19, 2011 6:14 pm

Post by Abelcain »

Umbrage wrote:
Abelcain wrote:Anecdotal evidence has no place in a game of Mafia. Or, to put it the way you would in your allcaps exaggerations: "WELL IF YOUR SISTER IS BOTHERED BY CERTAIN WORDS FOR NO GOOD REASON THAT MEANS THERE'S NO GOOD REASON ANYBODY COULD EVER BE BOTHERED BY THE WAY SOMEONE WRITES ANYTHING RIGHT? ESPECIALLY IN TEXT-BASED FORMAT LIKE MAFIA!"
Umbrage wrote:Certain words mean certain things to us, but attributing those to my arguments is just bad play.
Did you even bother to read the whole quote? Or were you just LOLZ ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE I CAN POST IN CAPS TO!!11?
If you could explain what your sister has to do with Vordark thinking your word choice was suspicious, then sure. Or did you only read the first sentence in the piece you quoted and then decide to try to brush the whole thing away?:
Vordark wrote:The phrase "singled me out" generally rubs me the wrong way.
That choice of words implied victimization.
Subtle words choices like this tend to jump out at me.
Bolded for emphasis. You implying that Vordark had no reason to feel "rubbed the wrong way" by comparing it to your sister being uncomfortable with hearing a word is borderline strawman. You're right that certain words mean certain things, but when he backs up why he thinks the words are suspicious you can't just handwave it with a story about your sister and magically hope nobody else notices.
Umbrage wrote:3) However, we have the exact same chance of hitting a scum tomorrow. If xtoxm was dead, then at least our chances of hitting scum would improve with their chances of hitting us.
While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why town-Xtoxm's claim puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero (assuming he's not scum himself), so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.


DarthYoshi wrote:Some of the things that Regfan is noting as town tells—like joining the discussion on the setup/massclaim speculation—I don’t see as a town tell. It is partly why I said what I said regarding the massclaim—if the setup could truly be broken via D1 massclaim, IT WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN APPROVED. So, a scum could join in that discussion, appear helpful to town, all the while knowing that there is no significant risk to having to concoct a fakeclaim because town would realize that a massclaim wouldn’t crack the game open.
You're completely right here. Scum could join that discussion even though they knew that there was no way it would be approved if that was a viable strategy. But so could town. If you're trying to use my contributions to this subject as a scumtell, please look into the other people who discussed the setup as well (like Regfan, Umbrage, Snake Eyes, ConSpiracy, Krazy, etc.).

Hell, even
Xtoxm
contributed to that discussion:
Xtoxm wrote:I don't think a massclaim day one strategy is feasible, due to the complete absence of any kind of protective role. There are enough vanilla townies in the game (5) that all the mafia could simply claim VT and then pick off the claimed power roles, and potentially leave us with very little information from night actions. I think we should wait at least until day two. The only down side to not massclaiming today, I think, is the vig potentially killing a town power role, which would be pretty catastrophic.
DarthYoshi wrote:How exactly is it a good point when you admit how far-fetched the scenario really is to have two leading wagons on scum?
Assuming that the wagons were entirely randomly chosen, this scenario has a one in twenty-two chance of happening in any twelve-player game with three scum and two leading wagons. Since these wagons are based in some fashion on the actions of the players, we can assume they they are not entirely random, and that there is at least a slightly greater chance that the wagons would land on scum. Let's make it a very slight chance increase (since there is guaranteed at least one scum-mate on one of the wagons, so not everyone on both wagons is definitely trustworthy anyway) and say that it's closer to one in twenty, or 5%. So in about 5% of twelve-player games with three mafia and two leading wagons, both leading wagons are on scum. Given the number of games on this site played with a setup with those numbers, it's bound to happen from time to time. Improbability =/= impossibility. Can you come up with a better/more likely motive why Xtoxm claimed so early?



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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Sat Mar 19, 2011 7:30 pm

Post by Umbrage »

xtoxm wrote:While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why town-Xtoxm's claim puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that
by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero
(assuming he's not scum himself), so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.
...

What...

That's a scumclaim. How else would you know xtoxm would flip town?

VOTE: Abelcain

xtoxm can wait. Lynching claimed scum D1 trumps any other strategy.
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Sat Mar 19, 2011 9:43 pm

Post by ConSpiracy »

Vordark wrote:CS's posts, in particular his replies to mine regarding DathYoshi, are serious chainsaws and pushing an easy wagon. For example, in CS's long post (#299), he offers a chainsaw of Umbrage against myself, SE and Ythan, he offers a chainsaw of DY against me, then finally pushes a vote of xtoxm based on lurking and, wait for it, another chainsaw for DY.
I love this. Somebody learnt a new word. Would we now use it in the proper context?
Xtoxm only lurker? Yeah right.
DarthYoshi wrote:
Vordark wrote:This xtoxm wagon advanced much faster than I'd expect a wagon on anything but obvscum to go. Coupled with the lurking town vibe I'm getting off him, I'm inclined to believe scum are pushing it.


Your warrant for claiming that scum are driving the Xtoxm wagon is because people hopped onto it so fast as of late, but CS and I are your two leading scumspects, and we’ve been voting Xtoxm for a while. Can’t have it both ways, mate. And one of those quick votes—Abelcain’s—you basically dismiss out of hand in #419 for being ‘null.’ Okay, voting for a lurker may be null in a vacuum, but you're ignoring the whole picture. For instance, when did AC vote for Xtoxm? After a couple of players already laid the groundwork to do so, which would plausibly make jumping onto the wagon safer and easier. To use Regfan’s scale, if anything, this would be, say, an S1 scumtell.
This is very, very true. Stupid ninja post.
DY - 1st to vote Xtoxm. Nothing happened.
CS - 2nd to vote Xtoxm. Xtoxm got a case on him and became a topic
Regfan - 3rd to vote Xtoxm. Voted for him with a summary of everyone
AbelCain - 4th to vote Xtoxm. Voted for him after an ISO
Quaroath - 5th to vote Xtoxm. Voted for him after a small ISO
Umbrage - 6th to vote Xtoxm. Because Xtoxm claimed VT.

And Vordark is suspecting DY and CS? LOL. Admit your fault and vote for Xtoxm right now.

I am scared that Umbrage is scum floating around because nobody cares about his posts any more.
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 1:54 am

Post by iamausername »

DarthYoshi wrote: In short, I doubted that the SE/Umbrage quarrel was a bus. The Umbrage wagon petered out pretty quick, it wasn’t like SE would have had a ton to gain on D1 by continuing to bus Umbrage, since bussing doesn’t reap rewards until a flip happens. And, FWIW, if I just wanted to paint anyone as scummy, then I would have manufactured some reason to say I saw their interactions as indicative of a bus. Surprise surprise, I didn’t, and I’m not.
Congratulations on explaining why they are obviously not scum together. Now try reading my post again and respond to what I'm actually saying next time. Why is Snake Eyes scummy? Why is Umbrage scummy?
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:26 am

Post by iamausername »

Just read post #421. Krazy is totally town.

I think the speculation about the possiblity of an Xtoxm/Yoshi scumteam is way off base. There were plenty of lurkers that Yoshi could have chosen to target when he made his vote, I don't think he'd pick his own partner out of that list.
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 8:55 am

Post by Umbrage »

Umbrage wrote:
xtoxm wrote:While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why town-Xtoxm's claim puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that
by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero
(assuming he's not scum himself), so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.
...

What...

That's a scumclaim. How else would you know xtoxm would flip town?

VOTE: Abelcain

xtoxm can wait. Lynching claimed scum D1 trumps any other strategy.
This is still the worst thing anyone's said this game. I can't see any way Abelcain could be town with this post.
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:19 am

Post by Abelcain »

Umbrage wrote:
xtoxm wrote:While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why town-Xtoxm's claim puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero (assuming he's not scum himself), so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.
...

What...

That's a scumclaim. How else would you know xtoxm would flip town?

VOTE: Abelcain

xtoxm can wait. Lynching claimed scum D1 trumps any other strategy.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:23 am

Post by Abelcain »

Wow, hit the submit button by mistake. Okay, I first want to point out that Umbrage replaced the name in the quote from me with xtoxm, which... I don't even know how or why that's supposed to make sense. But that's not my point.
Abelcain wrote:While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why
town-Xtoxm's claim
puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero
(assuming he's not scum himself)
, so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.
I was replying to your four reasons why Xtoxm has to die if he's town. He obviously has to die if he's Mafia anyway, but you listed four reasons that he had to die if he's town, and I was pointing out that one of them says we have a better chance of hitting scum tomorrow, but only if we assume that Xotxm is town, which means we have a zero percent chance of catching scum.

Next time you complain about people not paying attention to the entirety of one of your posts, make sure you pay attention to everyone else's too. Otherwise it makes you look like a hypocrite and dumbass.
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:33 am

Post by Ythan »

Umbrage is apparently pushing some case and yet again and again he goes off on a dubious interpretation of a single post to ignore his suspect and hop on someone else.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:32 am

Post by Umbrage »

Abelcain wrote:I was replying to your four reasons why Xtoxm has to die if he's town. He obviously has to die if he's Mafia anyway, but you listed four reasons that he had to die if he's town, and I was pointing out that one of them says we have a better chance of hitting scum tomorrow, but only if we assume that Xotxm is town, which means we have a zero percent chance of catching scum.
I never assumed xtoxm was town. I don't know how the hell you can think that from my posts. You are assuming that. Why?
Ythan wrote:Umbrage is apparently pushing some case and yet again and again he goes off on a dubious interpretation of a single post to ignore his suspect and hop on someone else.
This. I hate all this vote-hopping. Everyone stop acting scummy so I don't have to keep changing suspects.
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:34 am

Post by Ythan »

That's not going to cut it. You aren't acting like you really have a suspect.
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:24 pm

Post by Umbrage »

Ythan wrote:That's not going to cut it. You aren't acting like you really have a suspect.
Uh-Huh. And what do you call my case on Snake Eyes? I'd still be on him if xtoxm hadn't claimed and screwed the town.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 12:26 pm

Post by Ythan »

You're dodging. I don't care about what you're saying about him, except that for a case you care so much about you seem to drop it pretty quick. Repeatedly.
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 2:17 pm

Post by implosion »

Vote count 1.9:


Xtoxm - 5 (DarthYoshi, ConSpiracy, Regfan, Abelcain, Quaroath)
Krazy - 0
Umbrage - 1 (Ythan)
Ythan - 0
ConSpiracy - 0
Regfan - 0
Snake Eyes - 0
Vordark - 1 (Krazy)
Quaroath - 0
Abelcain - 1 (Umbrage)
iamausername - 0
DarthYoshi - 4 (iamausername, Vordark, Xtoxm, Snake Eyes)
No lynch - 0
Not voting: No one.

With 12 alive, 7 votes are required to lynch.

Prods: none.

Deadline is
3 days from now
, 8:30 EST on Wednesday, March 23.
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:34 pm

Post by Regfan »

Highly challenged with time at the moment so I'll just state my thoughts outright:

* My town read on Umbrage is dwindling, though he's not close to my largest suspect
* I'm becoming more sure that Krazy is town
* My FoS on Abelcain still remains though not as strong
* I want Quaroath to start posting content in relation to his FoS's
* Snake Eyes needs to let his current thoughts be known, I've barely gained anything from his recent posts.
* I'm still comfortable with a Xtoxm lynch.
* I believe if a VT dies during a night phase at any point in the game, then mass-claim is needed, I'll run the numbers of this over later when I have time.

@Mod, if a lynch decision isn't reached by deadline is the person with the most votes lynched or does no lynch occur? This is important.


3.
Each Day will have a deadline of 3 weeks. No majority at deadline will result in no lynch. I may extend the deadline if necessary for replacements, etc.
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:46 am

Post by iamausername »

Umbrage wrote:if xtoxm hadn't claimed and screwed the town.
Fun facts:
- if xtoxm is scum, his claim obviously doesn't screw the town
- so you just made the exact same assumption that you attacked abelcain for
- if xtoxm is town, his claim doesn't actually screw the town anyway, but that's neither here nor there
Regfan wrote: * I believe if a VT dies during a night phase at any point in the game, then mass-claim is needed, I'll run the numbers of this over later when I have time.
If the hider and hider tracker are both alive tomorrow, the hider tracker should definitely claim. They're really unlikely to both make it through another night, and the HT will be able to clear the hider's target.
If the PsyDet and the TrackVig are both alive too, massclaim is probably the right move, yes. Even if they're not, it might be, but we can run the numbers on that tomorrow.

Ythan, Krazy and Umbrage are still wasting their votes. If you don't feel like lynching scum today, then sacrifice the damn lamb already, gawd.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:04 am

Post by Umbrage »

iam wrote:Fun facts:
- if xtoxm is scum, his claim obviously doesn't screw the town
- so you just made the exact same assumption that you attacked abelcain for
- if xtoxm is town, his claim doesn't actually screw the town anyway, but that's neither here nor there
And......... nope. Try again.

1) If he is scum, by giving up quickly he ensures we get no information whatsoever from his flip.
2) See number 1.
3) I already made a post outlining why the claim was a stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid move as town. I don't feel like repeating myself.
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:40 am

Post by DarthYoshi »

Abelcain wrote:You're completely right here. Scum could join that discussion even though they knew that there was no way it would be approved if that was a viable strategy. But so could town. If you're trying to use my contributions to this subject as a scumtell, please look into the other people who discussed the setup as well (like Regfan, Umbrage, Snake Eyes, ConSpiracy, Krazy, etc.)
Sure, but I also think that those other players have, to varying degrees, shown much more interest in scumhunting than you have. It isn’t just that scum could join the discussion, it is that you’ve demonstrated what comes across a clear pattern of behavior of appearing to help without doing much actual heavy lifting.
Abelcain wrote:Given the number of games on this site played with a setup with those numbers, it's bound to happen from time to time. Improbability =/= impossibility.
This is infinitely regressive. I have a not-impossible chance of being struck by lightning right now because I’m writing this from the roof of my apartment building. So, should I base my next series of decisions on that singular possibility? Or, I have a not-impossible chance of winning the lottery, so I might as well buy the Ferrari I have my eye on. See where I’m going with this? On D1, we should be exploring the most likely avenues for finding scum, not the most improbable.
Abelcain wrote:Can you come up with a better/more likely motive why Xtoxm claimed so early?
I’m not psychic, but I’ll give it a shot—the players with town reads on Xtoxm called him “lazy town” (or similar). Claiming that early is something that lazy town would do, so it allows him to stay in character.

The rest of this post (#427) from AC is another good example of offering lots of words without actually helping the town—he seems more interested in arbitrating what honestly looks more like a personality dispute between Umbrage and Vordark rather than anything that is going to tell us diddley shit about alignment.

@Iam: I thought Umbrage might be scummy because of scumhunting mostly on SE while keeping his vote safely tucked away on Quaraoth. I thought SE might be scummy for similar reasons that I suspect AC—a general lack of desire to help significantly advance the gamestate.
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:05 am

Post by Umbrage »

DarthYoshi wrote:I thought Umbrage might be scummy because of scumhunting mostly on SE while keeping his vote safely tucked away on Quaraoth.
Following that logic, aren't you scumhunting mostly on AC while keeping your vote safely tucked away on xtoxm?
I'll explain it to you. You have to get someone else to understand it for you.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 12:33 pm

Post by Ythan »

I don't get how I'm the only one voting Umbrage. Will reread for two leading wagons in interest of time.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:38 pm

Post by Regfan »

DarthYoshi: @Iam: I thought Umbrage might be scummy because of scumhunting mostly on SE while keeping his vote safely tucked away on Quaraoth. I thought SE might be scummy for similar reasons that I suspect AC—a general lack of desire to help significantly advance the gamestate.
Do you still hold that opinion? If not, then can you elaborate your thoughts on Xotxm's likely partner please.
Ythan: I don't get how I'm the only one voting Umbrage. Will reread for two leading wagons in interest of time.
Earlier I read Umbrages posts as newbfrustratedtown, though lately he's been attempt to jump ship whenever a lynch seems as if it may actually go through to avoid suspicion cast on him later in the game. Thus although I don't believe changing the lynch completly is a good idea due to there being 2 days to the deadline, I would certaintly say he's growing on my suspect list.

Ythan, I'll await your thoughts on Xotxm and Yoshi, but at the same time can you possibly re-read and state your thoughts on Abelcain.
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 4:34 pm

Post by Abelcain »

Umbrage wrote:I never assumed xtoxm was town. I don't know how the hell you can think that from my posts. You are assuming that. Why?
Umbrage wrote:We have to kill xtoxm. These are the problems with him being alive:

1) We run the risk of outing a PR if we decide to lynch someone else.
2) The mafia have one less potential PR out there, making it more likely that they will hit a PR.
3) However, we have the exact same chance of hitting a scum tomorrow. If xtoxm was dead, then at least our chances of hitting scum would improve with their chances of hitting us.
4) Most of next day will revolve over whether or not we made the right decision keeping him alive.
Two of your points here, number two and number three, both only apply if Xtoxm is town. If he's scum, there is absolutely no way that his claim removes a potential PR from their list (because the mafia already knew he wasn't really scum). Also, if he's scum then killing him now in no way improves our ability to hit scum tomorrow - in fact, it makes it
less
likely we'll hit scum as opposed to town tomorrow because we'd have two mafia out of ten players instead of three mafia out of ten players. Therefore, your points two and three
only
apply if we already assume that Xtoxm as town. And the part of my post you quoted as a "scumclaim" was a direct response to those points (I even quoted point number three in that post).


DarthYoshi wrote:This is infinitely regressive. I have a not-impossible chance of being struck by lightning right now because I’m writing this from the roof of my apartment building. So, should I base my next series of decisions on that singular possibility? Or, I have a not-impossible chance of winning the lottery, so I might as well buy the Ferrari I have my eye on. See where I’m going with this? On D1, we should be exploring the most likely avenues for finding scum, not the most improbable.
That's just one extreme, and you know it. If I go to the extreme in your direction, we shouldn't bother putting safety devices on planes or in cars because they're less likely to be involved in crashes than they are to arrive safely at their destinations; also, they shouldn't have bothered putting
any
lifeboats on the Titanic because there was such a small chance that it would sink. I didn't say there was any guarantee that the two leading wagons were both scum, but it's a possibility and we shouldn't immediately discount it.
DarthYoshi wrote:I’m not psychic, but I’ll give it a shot—the players with town reads on Xtoxm called him “lazy town” (or similar). Claiming that early is something that lazy town would do, so it allows him to stay in character.
Someone who is just trying to appear "lazy town" would also try to be less lazy and become more involved in the game once he received notice of his inactivity. Xtoxm picked up his prod and proceeded to post a completely content-free post, then three days later (assumedly just before getting another prod) claimed. No defense, no attempt at hunting any scum, just a claim and a "please kill me." If he's trying to appear "lazy town" as scum and doing the things he is then he's doing a terrible job at playing towards his win conditon anyway, but it's a terrible way to play as town too.



@Ythan: I'm pretty sure nobody's jumping to vote Umbrage because we're so close to deadline with two other wagons that have a decent number of votes.

Regfan wrote:Earlier I read Umbrages posts as newbfrustratedtown, though lately he's been attempt to jump ship whenever a lynch seems as if it may actually go through to avoid suspicion cast on him later in the game. Thus although I don't believe changing the lynch completly is a good idea due to there being 2 days to the deadline, I would certaintly say he's growing on my suspect list.
Huh? Attempting to jump ship to avoid suspicion? Umbrage's vote was never on a big wagon until he brought Xtoxm to L-1, was it? He was the one who brought Xtoxm to L-1, and his vote sat there for a while where anyone could have come in and hammered. It only came off of Xtoxm recently. If his vote was changing to avoid suspicion, he wouldn't have put Xtoxm at L-1 to begin with.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Mon Mar 21, 2011 4:46 pm

Post by Regfan »

Huh? Attempting to jump ship to avoid suspicion? Umbrage's vote was never on a big wagon until he brought Xtoxm to L-1, was it? He was the one who brought Xtoxm to L-1, and his vote sat there for a while where anyone could have come in and hammered. It only came off of Xtoxm recently. If his vote was changing to avoid suspicion, he wouldn't have put Xtoxm at L-1 to begin with.
So far today he's voted and said the following people are mafia:
-Xotxm
-ConSpiracy
-Snake Eyes
-Quaroath
-Abelcain
-Regfan

Perhaps more than that even, yet he doesn't explain reasoning for unvoting each person in particular and instead fabricates a case against another person. Unvotes, then votes the new person while yelling how obvious it is that they're mafia. Essentially he has refused to maintain a lead suspect throughout the past few days(With the exception of SnakeEyes) which he hasn't voted in quite some time now.

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