Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Quaroath]

While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why town-Xtoxm's claim puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that

by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero

(assuming he's not scum himself), so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.

...

What...

That's a scumclaim. How else would you know xtoxm would flip town?

VOTE: Abelcain

xtoxm can wait. Lynching claimed scum D1 trumps any other strategy.

This is crazy. I don’t get how you read what Abel posted as a scum-claim. This feels like scum-reaching.

Wow, hit the submit button by mistake. Okay, I first want to point out that Umbrage replaced the name in the quote from me with xtoxm, which... I don't even know how or why that's supposed to make sense. But that's not my point.

While I do agree with the rest of your points here on why

town-Xtoxm's claim

puts the town in danger, I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero

(assuming he's not scum himself)

, so take that into account when you also give reasons showing the scum chance of getting a PR.

I was replying to your four reasons why Xtoxm has to die if he's town. He obviously has to die if he's Mafia anyway, but you listed four reasons that he had to die if he's town, and I was pointing out that one of them says we have a better chance of hitting scum tomorrow, but only if we assume that Xotxm is town, which means we have a zero percent chance of catching scum.

Next time you complain about people not paying attention to the entirety of one of your posts, make sure you pay attention to everyone else's too. Otherwise it makes you look like a hypocrite and dumbass.

*snicker*

I was replying to your four reasons why Xtoxm has to die if he's town. He obviously has to die if he's Mafia anyway, but you listed four reasons that he had to die if he's town, and I was pointing out that one of them says we have a better chance of hitting scum tomorrow, but only if we assume that Xotxm is town, which means we have a zero percent chance of catching scum.

I never assumed xtoxm was town. I don't know how the hell you can think that from my posts. You are assuming that. Why?

Neither did he, he even said “I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero (assuming he's not scum himself)”
I’m pretty sure that if we lynch xtomx there is a 100% chance we lynch a townie or a scum. If we lynch xtomx and he’s town.. I’m pretty sure there is a 0% chance on lynching scum today.

[

Umbrage is apparently pushing some case and yet again and again he goes off on a dubious interpretation of a single post to ignore his suspect and hop on someone else.

This. I hate all this vote-hopping. Everyone stop acting scummy so I don't have to keep changing suspects.

This post is bad bad bad. You drop every case you have for a shiny coin.

That's not going to cut it. You aren't acting like you really have a suspect.

Uh-Huh. And what do you call my case on Snake Eyes? I'd still be on him if xtoxm hadn't claimed and screwed the town.

Assume for a moment xtomx is town. Now, you play the part of xtomx:
Now, ask yourself, what would you claim as a townie, at L-1 and about to be mislynched?
1. “Hi, I’m scum, lynch me”,
2. “Hi I’m a town PR”,
3. “Hi, I’m Vanilla Townie”
Those are the three options, which one would you have him take?

And you drop your hard earned case against CS for a claim that was forced and was the only claim, no matter what role xtomx had, he could make? That’s crap.

You're dodging. I don't care about what you're saying about him, except that for a case you care so much about you seem to drop it pretty quick. Repeatedly.

QFT

VOTE: Umbrage

[Ythan]

Note the deadline.

[Quaroath]

Yeah I know. It's still over a day away. 42 hours in fact

[Krazy]

Looking at the game where Xtoxm won based in large part due to his replacee's pgo-claim on d1 suggests that Xto has some fair experience with reaping the benefits of town hardclaims on D1. In my personal experience with hard-claiming vanilla town on D1, I find that people who hardclaim vanilla town are more likely to be scum when they appear otherwise "lurkish" or "noobish"--although Xtoxm's play has been widely erratic today, I am not overall struck with the sense that he is a "noobish" player, which makes his hardclaim just all the more baffling to me, to the point of being downright scummy when combined with his meta on the game I mentioned earlier.

That, and he's pretty much totally given up, isn't even giving the pretext of scumhunting, and can only barely be qualified as even playing the game. It's beyond certain that the scum will never kill him (if he isn't one himself), and that even if alive will only be dead-weight. I personally wouldn't trust him at this point should he be alive at 5 or 3 player lylo, and he will be a huge distraction should we enter 6 player mylo (moreso than Umbrage? who can say.). If he was going to play like this as town, he should have replaced out. The risk of him being WIFOMing scum right now to me is like 50-50, which for day 1 lynches isn't bad at all.

There's also the problem of Xtoxm's relationships to other players, insofar as: who is Xtoxm unlikely to be on a scumteam with? No one, he could literally be paired with any player in the game. Anyone on his wagon could be bussing.

So

unvote; vote Xtoxm

___________________
Other thoughts:

Umbrage: Every post he makes is increasingly giving me the impression of "vig-bait." He's incredibly reactionary, which combined with his ragecapsing earlier seems to have basically given him a license to say whatever he wants because no one takes him seriously anymore. Short of Xtoxm who has basically given up, Umbrage is easily the most anti-town (as in not helping town interests, not sure I'm using that term right) player in the game, short of actually being scum. Still, in a game that COULD have a vigilante, I seriously wonder whether scum would be this trollish. I keep leaning town on him just because of this, but since it seems hard now to hold him accountable for the sensibility of his posts, he is still a high threat. My gut says green, but my head says red.

Ythan: has been very different this game from my previous game with him. Mostly, he's been more aloof and distant, with less active scumhunting. Partly I get the impression he's more busy in real life / less interested in the game, but the end result has been that he is the most null of any of my reads based on his post content. I really don't like this. Joining the Umbrage wagon seemed like a completely "safe" position to take. However, him sticking to Umbrage well after the rest of the wagon has dissipated is, out of everything else, very similar to his previous (town) play. However, him seeming baffled by the lack of the wagon rather than pursuing it more stringently is unusual. An Ythan/Umbrage scumteam could explain a lot here, with Ythan half-wanting to bus Umbrage but not really wanting to pursue it when other wagons are springing up. No way to substantiate this right now, however. I know the idea of me FoSing Ythan should shock no one, but the more I think about the game as a whole and groupings within it, the more I find myself suspecting Ythan. Which probably means he's town. (That's sort of a joke and sort of not)

[Umbrage]

You're dodging. I don't care about what you're saying about him, except that for a case you care so much about you seem to drop it pretty quick. Repeatedly.

Now YOU'RE dodging. Or not reading. Snake Eyes is my strongest scum read. But that doesn't change the fact that xtoxm should be the lynch today. At least he would be if Abelcain hadn't outed himself.

Two of your points here, number two and number three, both only apply if Xtoxm is town. If he's scum, there is absolutely no way that his claim removes a potential PR from their list (because the mafia already knew he wasn't really scum). Also, if he's scum then killing him now in no way improves our ability to hit scum tomorrow - in fact, it makes it less likely we'll hit scum as opposed to town tomorrow because we'd have two mafia out of ten players instead of three mafia out of ten players. Therefore, your points two and three only apply if we already assume that Xtoxm as town. And the part of my post you quoted as a "scumclaim" was a direct response to those points (I even quoted point number three in that post).

1: That post was to explain why xtoxm has to be lynched, regardless of your individual feelings on his alignment.

2: Lynching scum is better than lynching town, regardless of odds. Lynching claimed VTs increases odds of lynching scum. This is a mathematically proven fact.

So far today he's voted and said the following people are mafia:
-Xotxm
-ConSpiracy
-Snake Eyes
-Quaroath
-Abelcain
-Regfan

Perhaps more than that even, yet he doesn't explain reasoning for unvoting each person in particular and instead fabricates a case against another person. Unvotes, then votes the new person while yelling how obvious it is that they're mafia. Essentially he has refused to maintain a lead suspect throughout the past few days(With the exception of SnakeEyes) which he hasn't voted in quite some time now.

You're reaching. I've already explained my vote on CS. My votes on you and Quaroath were to try and get you to participate. To say that I think you all are scum is a blatant misrepresentation, and it strikes me as intentional.

This is crazy. I don’t get how you read what Abel posted as a scum-claim. This feels like scum-reaching.

Do you seriously not see it? He let slip that he knew xtoxm's alignment!

Neither did he, he even said “I just want to make sure that you also realize that by deciding to lynch him today we are reducing our chances of lynching scum today to zero (assuming he's not scum himself)”
I’m pretty sure that if we lynch xtomx there is a 100% chance we lynch a townie or a scum. If we lynch xtomx and he’s town.. I’m pretty sure there is a 0% chance on lynching scum today.

Why would he assume xtoxm is town, though? Why would he say it like that? Because by lynching him, we most certainly are NOT reducing our chances of lynching scum to 0. So why would he say that?

This post is bad bad bad. You drop every case you have for a shiny coin.

I say again: STOP ACTING SCUMMY! I can't keep up! This is not a contest where the scummiest player gets a prize and a hug.

Assume for a moment xtomx is town. Now, you play the part of xtomx:
Now, ask yourself, what would you claim as a townie, at L-1 and about to be mislynched?
1. “Hi, I’m scum, lynch me”,
2. “Hi I’m a town PR”,
3. “Hi, I’m Vanilla Townie”
Those are the three options, which one would you have him take?

And you drop your hard earned case against CS for a claim that was forced and was the only claim, no matter what role xtomx had, he could make? That’s crap.

That's bullshit.

1: xtoxm wasn't even close to being lynched. And the main thing people disliked about him was his inactivity. He could've easily picked up his posting and survive. But he gave up.

2: It is a mathematically proven fact that leaving claimed VTs alive hurts the town. I've already explained why.

3: Why do you assume I've dropped my case on SE? The case still stands, but he's started lurking, so there's not really anything else I can add to it. Just because I'm not bringing it up in every post doesn't mean I've forgotten it.

Umbrage: Every post he makes is increasingly giving me the impression of "vig-bait." He's incredibly reactionary, which combined with his ragecapsing earlier seems to have basically given him a license to say whatever he wants because no one takes him seriously anymore. Short of Xtoxm who has basically given up, Umbrage is easily the most anti-town (as in not helping town interests, not sure I'm using that term right) player in the game, short of actually being scum. Still, in a game that COULD have a vigilante, I seriously wonder whether scum would be this trollish. I keep leaning town on him just because of this, but since it seems hard now to hold him accountable for the sensibility of his posts, he is still a high threat. My gut says green, but my head says red.

No. Shut up. You don't have the fucking right to criticize my play after the shit you pulled with Ythan. I was scumhunting while you were whining and spamming the thread. If one of the active, pro-town members of this game have some criticism, I'll gladly accept it. But's it's really hypocritical coming from you.

[Snake Eyes]

Do you seriously not see it? He let slip that he knew xtoxm's alignment!

It wasn't a slip in the first place(because he was responding to your points and you just took it out of context and tried to twist it to a scumslip) but this sure is. The only person here who seems to know xtoxm's alignment is you. Shouldn't this sort of accusation come after we actually know if xtoxm is town or not?

Deadline is in a little over a day, so it's probably going to have to be xtoxm. He's a claimed vanilla who's not even trying to defend himself. He could be replaced because he seems to have quit the game, but I see little point in making the mod go through the hassle when it's pretty much a doomed slot and we're close to the deadline. I'll hammer him in about 24 hours if necessary, don't want to deadline to a no lynch.

[Krazy]

It wasn't a slip in the first place(because he was responding to your points and you just took it out of context and tried to twist it to a scumslip) but this sure is. The only person here who seems to know xtoxm's alignment is you. Shouldn't this sort of accusation come after we actually know if xtoxm is town or not?

Deadline is in a little over a day, so it's probably going to have to be xtoxm. He's a claimed vanilla who's not even trying to defend himself. He could be replaced because he seems to have quit the game, but I see little point in making the mod go through the hassle when it's pretty much a doomed slot and we're close to the deadline. I'll hammer him in about 24 hours if necessary, don't want to deadline to a no lynch.

If you seriously think Umbrage is slipping here, shouldn't you be saying we should lynch him instead?

[Umbrage]

It wasn't a slip in the first place(because he was responding to your points and you just took it out of context and tried to twist it to a scumslip) but this sure is. The only person here who seems to know xtoxm's alignment is you. Shouldn't this sort of accusation come after we actually know if xtoxm is town or not?

Where did I say xtoxm was town? I think he is scum. Granted, not as strongly as I think you're scum, but you haven't claimed yet.

This is second time I've said this, so I think I'll make it clear:

I think xtoxm is scum. I don't know why people think I said he is town.

Deadline is in a little over a day, so it's probably going to have to be xtoxm. He's a claimed vanilla who's not even trying to defend himself. He could be replaced because he seems to have quit the game, but I see little point in making the mod go through the hassle when it's pretty much a doomed slot and we're close to the deadline. I'll hammer him in about 24 hours if necessary, don't want to deadline to a no lynch.

This is my logic! You agree with me! So why do you consider my opinion of xtoxm scummy?

Oh wait, I see the difference. I've actually expressed real suspicion of xtoxm, so if he should flip town, I'd be under suspicion. Whereas you are not saying he is scum, therefore no blame can come to you. Hm. Interesting.

[ConSpiracy]

I am highly curious and concerned why people still want to push other lynches than Xtoxm and DY. Especially with this little time until deadline.

[Xtoxm]

So why have I not been lynched yet? I'm sick of skimming the new posts and being called scum all the time. Lynch me and be done with it, and try to get it right next time.

[Umbrage]

So why have I not been lynched yet? I'm sick of skimming the new posts and being called scum all the time. Lynch me and be done with it, and try to get it right next time.

Fine, fuck it. It's posts like this that make me want you dead. Instead of trying to help the town by finding scum, you whine and play the martyr.

One thing though: Don't blame us. If you really are town, know that you got yourself lynched through your own play. It's because of YOU. You've lurked through your entire stay here. When just the slightest bit of pressure came your way, you claimed, ENSURING YOUR DEATH.

UNDERSTAND? ONCE YOU CLAIMED, WE HAD NO CHOICE.

But you STILL could've convinced us to let you live, if you had tried. If you scumhunted. If you did ANYTHING but whine about how we were mislynching you, and complain that we weren't doing it fast enough. But no, you continued to be useless.

I expect this kind of shit from a newbie. Not someone who's been here as long as you have. You haven't even been playing this game, not really. You haven't done a single thing to help the town. I don't know why the hell you even signed up.

The only reason I'm so sure you are scum is because NO TOWNIE WOULD LET THEMSELVES DIE LIKE THAT. If you are town, you've done more to help the scum that you could've with a town PM.

So if you are town, don't come back here after the game with some "I TOLD U I WAZ TOWN LULZ" bullshit. You screwed up. You got yourself lynched. You.

VOTE: Xtoxm

Now somebody hammer already.

[Krazy]

VOTE: Xtoxm

Now somebody hammer already.

I think you just did.

[Krazy]

Oh no wait, just kidding, Q moved off.

[Vordark]

So why have I not been lynched yet? I'm sick of skimming the new posts and being called scum all the time. Lynch me and be done with it, and try to get it right next time.

Yeah, that's quite enough fail town for me. You've actually got me agreeing with part of an Umbrage post.

But you STILL could've convinced us to let you live, if you had tried. If you scumhunted. If you did ANYTHING but whine about how we were mislynching you, and complain that we weren't doing it fast enough. But no, you continued to be useless.

I expect this kind of shit from a newbie. Not someone who's been here as long as you have. You haven't even been playing this game, not really. You haven't done a single thing to help the town. I don't know why the hell you even signed up.

Vote: xtoxm

So can we get on with lynching DY and company tomorrow?

[Krazy]

V was on DY before, so this is a real hammer, not a fake hammer.

Not sure if town is allowed to talk during twilight, but Xtoxm is:

During Twilight
1. Votes and unvotes will not be counted after a lynch.
2. The person lynched may still talk during Twilight until their lynch scene is posted.

Any last words?

[Xtoxm]

Umbrage, I fully understand that claiming sealed my death - I had no objection to that. But don't try and shift the blame of the townie who gets mislynched onto him rather than the townies who mislynch him. I respect though that Umbrage and Vordark are only voting me because of the claim. It was the initial 5 votes on me that did it.

[Xtoxm]

That post sounds somewhat more accusatory than I had intended - Knee jerk reaction, you know.

Honestly, it's day one and i'm a vanilla townie. I have no objection to being lynched, and really, no one has any right getting annoyed at me for not putting up more of a defense. It is better to die early if you are widely suspected, and the day one lynch, in general, is pretty unimportant. Lynching a vanilla townie is a decent use for this lynch.

So, sorry about my previous post, it was made out of frustration.

I am disappointed that I am going to miss out on the majority of this game, as the setup looks exciting, but this is how it has to be. Good luck, town!

[Umbrage]

Xtoxm, on my second game here, I replaced a cop that was at L-1, and everyone was just waiting for someone to hammer. I fought tooth and nail to turn the wagon around, and ended up lynching scum. Being at L-2 does not mean you will surely be lynched. And it certainly does not give you an excuse to give up scumhunting. Even if you were lynched, we could've used your scumreads on day 2. And a mislynch is NEVER OK. You know you are town, so your lynch is about the worst thing that could happen. Giving up is extremely poor play. No way around it.

[Xtoxm]

Being a power role is a different situation entirely. I would have fought a lot harder had I been anything other than vanilla.

[Ythan]

You're dodging. I don't care about what you're saying about him, except that for a case you care so much about you seem to drop it pretty quick. Repeatedly.

Now YOU'RE dodging. Or not reading. Snake Eyes is my strongest scum read. But that doesn't change the fact that xtoxm should be the lynch today. At least he would be if Abelcain hadn't outed himself.

What the fuck are you talking about. Is any of this post even true?

[Umbrage]

You're dodging. I don't care about what you're saying about him, except that for a case you care so much about you seem to drop it pretty quick. Repeatedly.

Now YOU'RE dodging. Or not reading. Snake Eyes is my strongest scum read. But that doesn't change the fact that xtoxm should be the lynch today. At least he would be if Abelcain hadn't outed himself.

What the fuck are you talking about. Is any of this post even true?

(This is the part where you start ignoring everything I say and start shouting UMBRAGE IS SCUM in the hopes someone believes you.)

[Umbrage]

Being a power role is a different situation entirely. I would have fought a lot harder had I been anything other than vanilla.

OK, so now you're saying that VTs have nothing to contribute to the game?

[Xtoxm]

Obviously not, vanilla townies are very important. I'm saying that an individual vanilla townie has no reason to object to being lynched on day one.

[Umbrage]

That still doesn't excuse you from not scumhunting.

[Snake Eyes]

If you seriously think Umbrage is slipping here, shouldn't you be saying we should lynch him instead?

Several pretty obvious reasons.
1) It being a scumslip relies on xtoxm being town, which I wasn't quite as certain then as I am now(there's little point in xtoxm keeping up this play now that he's already hammered)
2) It was only a little over a day until deadline, so a wagon on Umbrage would have been just about impossible to make in time
3) xtoxm needed to die anyway for reasons I already said, and his flip would be informative on Umbrage as well

It wasn't a slip in the first place(because he was responding to your points and you just took it out of context and tried to twist it to a scumslip) but this sure is. The only person here who seems to know xtoxm's alignment is you. Shouldn't this sort of accusation come after we actually know if xtoxm is town or not?

Where did I say xtoxm was town? I think he is scum. Granted, not as strongly as I think you're scum, but you haven't claimed yet.

This is second time I've said this, so I think I'll make it clear:

I think xtoxm is scum. I don't know why people think I said he is town.

Do you seriously not see it? He let slip that he knew xtoxm's alignment!

What you say right there only applies if xtoxm is town, and implies that xtoxm is in fact town.

xtoxm, even if you won't admit it, you failed big time in this game. I'm guessing you're actually town since you're still keeping it up, but drawing a vanilla role is no excuse to just lay down and get lynched. If you had put just a little effort into the game despite being just a vanilla, you might have gotten someone else lynched who wasn't necessarily a townie.