Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Ythan]

Um Regfan alt?

Guess so.

[Ythan]

@Ythan, you think Umbrage is mafia, who do you think his partner is?

Thus far in the day I have already expressed my suspicion of two living players, Umbrage and Vordark.

[Ythan]

No, he's scum because he's not making sincere efforts to find scum, ...

I see very little in iam's iso up to this point that could be called scumhunting. Reading on.

I have to agree with Krazy's evaluation that iam is piggybacking, even if he did place a vote first.

Talks about DY removing Krazy-vote when Krazy seemed to stop being as anti-town, iam harps on him for not removing it based on an alignment read. Vote was not based on alignment in the first place, and I think that has been really obvious from the start. I don't get where the confusion comes from.

In iso post 14, has trouble picking out a specific post by DY he would call most scummy.

I believe it is

more likely than not

that at least one of Umbrage and iam is town, though.

[Regfan]

Ythan, you mean Vordark not iamusername, right? If you think one of them is mafia but they're not partners, who would you lean towards as being their partner? Who would you lynch first?

[Ythan]

I definitely mean iam at the end of that post about iam.

[Krazy]

Ythan, that's the second time today you've made a post explaining your read on a dead. player. Iam was the Hider.

[Regfan]

You do realize Iamusername is dead, right?

[Ythan]

Thanks Krazy. Using isos as one's primary method of analysis can be a tad confusing at times.

Pretty much when I check the thread I catch up with new stuff, head straight to the bottom, and iso the next person on the list.

[Ythan]

Bright side, everyone I suspect to a lesser extent than Umbrage and Vordark ends up being dead already.

[Ythan]

Krazy I'm not going to bother isoing right now. His posts are 99% noise. Closer to the noose than coherent town reads, further from it than coherent scum reads.

[Ythan]

HEY GUYS QUAROATH SURE IS SUSPICIOUS

[Vordark]

I have established it to my satisfaction in post #262.

Are you satisfied with nobody believing things you say, because it's really easy to convince yourself of your point of view if that's all you want to do.

I have expressed possible scum motives for observed behavior. You are asking me if those motives exist if we ignore the behavior. That is nonsensical.

This does not even resemble my statement, and you're doing a piss poor job as always of actually supporting statements. The next time I see you say "I already said that", and it's both dubious and lacking in even a specific post number, I'm considering moving my vote.

I believe post #291 covers all of this suitably.

I seriously disagree.

I am perfectly even-tempered. Why do you believe I have not been?

Your chronic problem with actually sharing the support your claim in important posts.

I see no actual discussion of what I wrote, just a lot of inflammatory statements here and a threat to vote for me if I continue pointing to the case I've already made. So, exactly how is this attitude consistent with your earlier statement to me:

I'm hoping that you'll keep your cool a little better discussing this with a third party.

It seems like the very

last

thing you want me to do is keep my cool.

[Vordark]

Looking at Ythan's ISO, Day One he pushed the Umbrage wagon hard (was the only vote on him most of the day) and is doing the same now. I think Umbrage was unlynchable half-way through the day and I think he's fairly obvtown given that Quaroath flip. He also made several stabs at xtoxm, but since half the players here went after that failtown, that doesn't move my meter much.

Ythan has also pretty consistently defended DY, not just against myself but against others. Since DY is still my prime, this strikes me as interesting.

FoS: Ythan

I think people need to take a closer look at him and just ignore Krazy's involvement for a minute. The main points that bother me are Ythan's statements and attitude that I mentioned in my previous post, his continued pushing of an Umbrage lynch and his interactions concerning Quaroath. In particular, post #346 starts a run of Ythan vs. Umbrage when Umbrage votes Quaroath.

[Umbrage]

Reasoning for having the hider tracker claim today:

or

Why Umbrage is right and everyone else is wrong:

If the Hider Tracker claims today:

- Today's lynch will have a higher chance of hitting scum because there will be a confirmed townie.
- Scum will have to kill the Hider Tracker tonight, meaning that the Psych/Det is safe another night.
- If scum chose not to kill the Hider Tracker, then we will have a confirmed townie alive for tomorrow's lynch as well, again meaning we have a higher chance of hitting scum.

Whether or not the scum kill the Hider Tracker tonight, we benefit.

If the Hider Tracker does not claim today:

- The Hider Tracker could be killed tonight, meaning we lose our chance at having a confirmed townie for the rest of the game.
- If the Psych/Det claims he'll be killed that night and we'll lose our last PR, whereas the Hider Tracker has no powers and is thus expendable.
- If the Hider Tracker claims in lylo, the scum will counter-claim, and we won't get our confirmed townie. If we mislynch then, it's game over.

So if we want a free confirmed townie, it has to be today.

This message has been brought to you by Logic Inc.

[Ythan]

Looking at Ythan's ISO, Day One he pushed the Umbrage wagon hard (was the only vote on him most of the day) and is doing the same now. I think Umbrage was unlynchable half-way through the day and I think he's fairly obvtown given that Quaroath flip. He also made several stabs at xtoxm, but since half the players here went after that failtown, that doesn't move my meter much.

Ythan has also pretty consistently defended DY, not just against myself but against others. Since DY is still my prime, this strikes me as interesting.

FoS: Ythan

I think people need to take a closer look at him and just ignore Krazy's involvement for a minute. The main points that bother me are Ythan's statements and attitude that I mentioned in my previous post, his continued pushing of an Umbrage lynch and his interactions concerning Quaroath. In particular, post #346 starts a run of Ythan vs. Umbrage when Umbrage votes Quaroath.

Considering that you're the only person who thinks Umbrage is obvtown this is a little silly. And show us the extent to which I have been defending DY. Specifics can only help, if there is any basis to your case.

On the other hand, everyone ignoring Krazy might be the best plan I've seen all day. Goodposting Vordark.

[Ythan]

Reasoning for having the hider tracker claim today:

Are you reading the thread at all. Since the HT doesn't have scum to give us its only purpose is its unique claim. Wasting that d2 is the opposite of pro-town. Quit flailing, that plan is ridiculous.

[DarthYoshi]

Godspeed, ConSpiracy.

You're going to congratulate the vig like that? Scummy.

@Yoshi, do yo think Vordark is misguided town or mafia attempting to cause a ML on you?
@Yoshi, Apart from Abelcains lack of vote can you summarize the reasoning behind why you think Abelcain is mafia? I know why I do but I want to hear what your thoughts are.

Regarding Vordark--I'm honestly not sure. The zeal with which he has gone after me leads me to think he is town, but then he turns around and makes comments like "Can we lynch DY and company tomorrow?" which comes across as just trying to tee up a future mislynch. If you forced me to choose, I'd probably tell you he's town, but I'm not very sure about that read.

Regarding Abelcain--the following is from my #426:

I think he has been trying to appear helpful to town without actually being altogether that helpful. Some of the things that Regfan is noting as town tells...You take that material out, and the only substantive content he’s offered as of late are a pair of ISOs. His latest post (#407) has some content, but also includes stuff like the retort to Umbrage that seems to care more about digging at issues of personality rather than alignment.

(end quote)

Basically, I think AC has tried to keep up appearances but has shown very little interest in scumhunting or otherwise helping the town. Outside of contributing to some general theory discussions, the amount of actual content he has contributed is little relative to his number of posts. I think you demonstrated that yourself in your ISO, but you somehow came away thinking he was more townish than you first thought.

Additionally, I think Quaraoth defending AC from a relatively weak vote from Umbrage is pretty fishy--why defend AC when AC is clearly not going to be the day's lynch? Earning towncred for opposing a mislynch only works if the mislynch occurs and the lynchee flips town. Which makes me think Quaraoth had other reasons for defending AC unbidden against a weak vote--namely, that they're scumbuddies.

AC also basically ignored my vote on him...which, I dunno how much to read into that quite yet, but imo, innocents are generally more vocal about defending themselves rather than just ignoring votes on them.

[Abelcain]

OH COME THE FUCK ON. I was doing some work while I wrote my post, and I timed out from being logged in and lost it. There wasn't a whole lot, so I can try to repost most of it, but I'm not going to try to redo that entire thing again.

Reasons the HT shouldn't claim today:

or

What Umbrage didn't think about before making unreasonable boasts:

Right now we're at six town vs. two scum. Assuming the worst case scenario (regardless of claims), we lynch a town player today and scum kills at night. That leaves us tomorrow at 4 vs. 2, which is MyLo, not LyLo. In MyLo, it's generally considered optimal play to go for a no-lynch, if I'm not mistaken. This would put us into LyLo, which means we have one mislynch and one no-lynch starting now before we enter LyLo.

Essentially, my proposition is that we take the no-lynch today instead of tomorrow. Then we can also have the HT claim tomorrow. The benefits?

-When the mafia pick a kill during the night, assuming they choose randomly, they have a one in six chance of hitting the Det/Psy at night, while a mislynch would give them a one in five chance of hitting the Det/Psy. This means it is more likely that the Det/Psy can live to tomorrow, and potentially have an investigation result worth reporting.
-If the HT confirms tomorrow, we'll have six unconfirmed to choose from for the lynch as opposed to seven today. The number of potential town players we could hit shrinks because the Mafia will have killed one during the night. Also, we will still have an available mislynch in case of a counterclaim, since we won't be in MyLo or LyLo yet.
-Yes, there is a chance (one in six, again assuming random scumkill) that the HT will be killed during the night, which completely ruins this plan, so we have to decide if the benefits of giving the scum a larger killpool and having a smaller lynchpool tomorrow are worth the risk of potentially losing the benefits of the HT claim today.



@Regfan: I looked over Snake and Quaroath's interaction today... and found surprisingly little. They rarely interacted, and the few interactions they had with each other seemed to be either simple questions thrown innocently at each other or a few negative comments. There's not a whole lot there to go on because they rarely interacted - on one hand, they could have been trying to keep a distance between them, but it seems to me more like they were just never really involved in the same conversations in the thread. It doesn't help that neither one was the poster boy for thread activity, even though they're not slouches, but compared to how active people like Umbrage and Vordark have been they didn't spend a whole lot of time involved in the same topics at the same time (if someone can point out a time when they

were

and still didn't talk much, please point it out to me, as I did this analysis by looking at their ISOs).



@DY, you're right I haven't defended myself. This is because I don't see anything to defend. For the most part, you seem to think I'm scum because I haven't contributed much content to the thread and because Quaroath defended me. I know I haven't been contributing a whole lot, I'm not going to deny it. Personal reasons that have no place in this thread have been making it difficult for me to spend a lot of time on this game the way I did in earlier games, and I'm honestly trying to get more into it. As for Quaroath defending me, I don't know what I'm supposed to say. The guy was scum. He was trying to buddy up to me. I'm not going to defend him because he was scum.

Oh, right, you also don't like when I voted to get onto the Xtoxm wagon:

Not voting: Abelcain, Quaroath

Why do you guys not have a vote out? There's no excuse for not having one out this deep into D1.

@Abelcain and Quaraoth: Please put some votes out, like, now.

Next time you prompt someone

twice

to place a vote, don't bitch about when the vote was placed.

[Krazy]

Considering that you're the only person who thinks Umbrage is obvtown this is a little silly.

I was the one saying Umb. was obvtown Y. Not even going to add a snarky remark this time.

OH COME THE FUCK ON. I was doing some work while I wrote my post, and I timed out from being logged in and lost it. There wasn't a whole lot, so I can try to repost most of it, but I'm not going to try to redo that entire thing again.

I hate it when that happens. That's why I ctrl+a then ctrl+c before pressing submit.

@Regfan: I looked over Snake and Quaroath's interaction today... and found surprisingly little. They rarely interacted, and the few interactions they had with each other seemed to be either simple questions thrown innocently at each other or a few negative comments. There's not a whole lot there to go on because they rarely interacted - on one hand, they could have been trying to keep a distance between them, but it seems to me more like they were just never really involved in the same conversations in the thread. It doesn't help that neither one was the poster boy for thread activity, even though they're not slouches, but compared to how active people like Umbrage and Vordark have been they didn't spend a whole lot of time involved in the same topics at the same time (if someone can point out a time when they

were

and still didn't talk much, please point it out to me, as I did this analysis by looking at their ISOs).

You thought Quaroth had surprisingly little interaction with Snake Eyes over any other player? Not Ythan? Not Regfan? Not Vordark or yourself? Also, unlike most of those other players, the few interactions Quaroth did have with Snake Eyes usually involved him calling SE out for some WIFOMy argument. Are you taking this to be early distancing or what? Also, do you think Snake Eyes is scummy outside of Quaroth's lack of interaction with him?

Next time you prompt someone

twice

to place a vote, don't bitch about when the vote was placed.

Perhaps DY shouldn't have had to provoke you into posting in the first place? Also, DY asking you to *vote* does not mean he cannot also question you about your vote and the rationale therein. You seem to be saying here that DarthYoshi shouldn't have asked you to vote, or shouldn't have asked your reasoning behind your vote, when really DarthYoshi should have been doing both of these things, as town or as anything else. Gotta be honest AC, this point is pretty scummy from where I'm sitting.

[Ythan]

Considering that you're the only person who thinks Umbrage is obvtown this is a little silly.

I was the one saying Umb. was obvtown Y. Not even going to add a snarky remark this time.

Even better, the only one who thinks he's town is the most ridiculous player in the game.

[Abelcain]

You thought Quaroth had surprisingly little interaction with Snake Eyes over any other player? Not Ythan? Not Regfan? Not Vordark or yourself? Also, unlike most of those other players, the few interactions Quaroth did have with Snake Eyes usually involved him calling SE out for some WIFOMy argument. Are you taking this to be early distancing or what? Also, do you think Snake Eyes is scummy outside of Quaroth's lack of interaction with him?

Note the "@Regfan" at the beginning of that paragraph you replied to with this - Regfan asked me what I thought of Snake Eyes in light of the flips, and since knowing that CS and iam were town doesn't really help much with ascertaining SE's alignment (any potential "buddying" has both scum motive to associate themselves with town players as well as town motive to get rid of scummy statements against them), I decided to look at the way Quaroath associated with Snake Eyes. It wasn't a "Search every single person to determine buddying" this time around, it was just a look at Quaroath and Snake Eyes.

And "calling SE out for some WIFOMy argument" is a load of crap. There was exactly one time Quaroath said anything about Snake that wasn't "I think Snake Eyes is town" or "I agree with this Snake post" and that was asking him about one WIFOMy statement. Not "calling him out", just asking a question. There was no follow-up to that question after Snake answered it, Quaroath just let it go. So to answer your question about distancing, is it possible? Yes. It's also completely possible that they just weren't involved in any conversation together. I want to go back and reread the early Umbrage-SE-CS triangle again to see what Quaroath's involvement in that was.

Outside of looking at Quaroath, I'm getting a hair's width of town from Snake, but I might as well consider him null. A lot of his more recent posts seem to be repeating the same arguments other people made as well as commenting on Xtoxm's lack of drive - outside of Umbrage and DY, I don't think he's talked to much to or about

anyone

still in this game.

Perhaps DY shouldn't have had to provoke you into posting in the first place? Also, DY asking you to *vote* does not mean he cannot also question you about your vote and the rationale therein. You seem to be saying here that DarthYoshi shouldn't have asked you to vote, or shouldn't have asked your reasoning behind your vote, when really DarthYoshi should have been doing both of these things, as town or as anything else. Gotta be honest AC, this point is pretty scummy from where I'm sitting.

Which would be nice if DY was questioning my reasoning, but he hasn't been doing that. From what I can see, he didn't have a problem with the fact that I voted Xtoxm, or why I voted Xtoxm. He has a problem with

when

I voted Xtoxm, because at that time the "groundwork had been laid" as I remember. To which I reply that my vote was made then because he prompted me to vote twice.

[Umbrage]

@ Abelcain: Voting no-lynch today is wasting a lynch. Town never no-lynch, except in special cases. Don't ask me to back this up, it's standard theory. I think 95% of the site would agree with me on this. +scumpoints for you.

@ Ythan: Saying that the HT would waste the claim d2 is silly. We don't know how much longer the HT will be alive. By not claiming, we run the risk that we will lose the chance forever. Also, the HT claiming today GUARANTEES either a safe night for the Psych/Det or another lynch with a confirmed townie.

THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE TO MY PLAN. THIS ISN'T A REGFANESQE '60% chance of winning' BULLSHIT MATH PROBLEM. THIS IS NOT MATH. IT'S LOGIC AND PSYCHOLOGY.

What if DarthYoshi is the HT? All these walls of text about him will go to waste. There is no point in guessing at the mafia until we have a claim. Anything else is a waste of time.

[Krazy]

Umbrage, actually the more scumhunting we do before a claim, the more information we may gain as a result of that claim. Furthermore, you're saying that it's all psychology and logic, and then saying that it's pointless to do anything other than claim. Isn't the point you're saying there is to claiming that the claim will help us scumhunt, which you apparently are saying we shouldn't do until there is a claim. Seems... problematic.

I actually also thought AC's plan was probably scummy, but actually after doing a few breakdowns it actually was at least marginally reasonable, since we would still have the mislynch tomorrow should the scum hint a PR tonight. But an issue is the 1/3 chance of hitting a PR/unique role tonight.

But back to the main point, Umbrage, you seem to be putting a lot of emphasis on the benefits of having a confirmed townie. Xtoxm, CS, and IAmAUserName are three confirmed townies. If you follow their remaining FoSes, shouldn't you be voting DarthYoshi or something based on IAmAUserName's case? What "chance" do we really gain from a confirmed townie?

I know you don't want to waste your time pushing someone to L-1 only to have them roleclaim, but that's part of the game man.

[Umbrage]

Umbrage, actually the more scumhunting we do before a claim, the more information we may gain as a result of that claim.

No. There is nothing we can do now that we would not be able to do after the claim. And there is no point in pushing a lynch on someone only to have them claim HT, that would do nothing but waste time.

Furthermore, you're saying that it's all psychology and logic, and then saying that it's pointless to do anything other than claim. Isn't the point you're saying there is to claiming that the claim will help us scumhunt, which you apparently are saying we shouldn't do until there is a claim.

I'm saying we have a choice. Scumhunt when there are 8 unconfirmeds, or scumhunt when there are 7 unconfirmeds. This is a no-brainer. This is Mafia 101. Either we waste time arguing about whether player X is scum, or we know without a doubt that player X is scum. Which one do you think is pro-town?

But back to the main point, Umbrage, you seem to be putting a lot of emphasis on the benefits of having a confirmed townie. Xtoxm, CS, and IAmAUserName are three confirmed townies. If you follow their remaining FoSes, shouldn't you be voting DarthYoshi or something based on IAmAUserName's case? What "chance" do we really gain from a confirmed townie?

BECAUSE DARTHYOSHI COULD BE THE HIDER TRACKER.

You're going on the assumption that the townies knew who the mafia are. This is ridiculous. They are still fallible.

A living confirmed townie means we don't waste time attacking that townie. It means that mafia HAVE to kill that townie. Again, Mafia 101. Scum ALWAYS kill confirmed town, because they are fucking dangerous if left alive. This has the added benefit of making sure our last PR survives another night. So by D3 we have two results from the Psych/Det, GUARANTEED.

I know you don't want to waste your time pushing someone to L-1 only to have them roleclaim, but that's part of the game man.

IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE. NOT TODAY. THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION. GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE WIKI AND THINK ABOUT IT.

Normally, the only players who can claim are PRs. Usually, PRs do not claim because they will be killed. A living unclaimed PR is better than a claimed dead one.

BUT THE HIDER TRACKER IS OF NO USE TO US UNCLAIMED.

IF THE HIDER TRACKER IS KILLED, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LOSS TO THE TOWN.

Sure, we could take the chance that the HT will survive to lylo. We could trust that the scum will only kill VTs.

BUT I DON'T WANT TO TAKE THAT CHANCE.

I DON'T WANT TO WAKE UP TOMORROW WITH THE HIDER TRACKER DEAD.

I DON'T WANT TO PUSH A SCUMMY PLAYER TO L-1 ONLY TO HAVE THEM CLAIM HIDER TRACKER WITH FIVE HOURS LEFT TO DEADLINE.

I DON'T WANT TO RISK ANYTHING. I WANT TO PLAY IT SAFE.

HIDER TRACKER SHOULD CLAIM IN THEIR NEXT POST. THEN WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET SOMEWHERE.

[Abelcain]

IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE. NOT TODAY.

THIS IS A UNIQUE SITUATION.

GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE WIKI AND THINK ABOUT IT.

Town never no-lynch,

except in special cases.

You're exactly right. We are in a unique situation, one that I think might benefit from a no-lynch today. Maybe if you actually looked at what I was saying rather than just assuming that the no-lynch is suboptimal play regardless of the situation you'd understand.

Voting no-lynch today is wasting a lynch.

Except it's not. We have an available mislynch and no-lynch, due to the number of players. Going with a no-lynch does

not

reduce the number of lynches we have available, as it would if we had an odd number of players today. With the vig dead, there's only a lynch-scumkill dynamic. That means two deaths a day. Since we can still lose three townies without losing, and the scumkill

always

kills town, we can only mislynch once because a second mislynch would make it 2 town to 2 scum, which is endgame. After one mislynch we can

still

lose another town without losing, and the only way that'll happen is if we no-lynch. I'm suggesting we take that no-lynch today rather than after another mislynch.

THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE TO MY PLAN.

HT claims today, and if we still mislynch it's pretty obvious the scum will kill the HT too. That leaves it as four to two, none confirmed. Unless the Det/Psy has a guilty by that point (more on this later) this is a fairly bad situation to be in.

I'm saying we have a choice. Scumhunt when there are 8 unconfirmeds, or scumhunt when there are 7 unconfirmeds.

And I'm saying there's a third choice, which involves scumhunting today with eight unconfirmeds but no lynch, and then letting the HT claim tomorrow which lets us scumhunt with only

six

unconfirmeds

and

an available mislynch.

Either we waste time arguing about whether player X is scum, or we know without a doubt that player X is scum. Which one do you think is pro-town?

I'm sorry? How is confirming who the HT is equal to knowing without a doubt that someone is scum?

Scum ALWAYS kill confirmed town, because they are fucking dangerous if left alive. This has the added benefit of making sure our last PR survives another night. So by D3 we have two results from the Psych/Det, GUARANTEED.

WIFOMy "Should the scum kill the confirmed town or try to hit the PR" aside, I think you're putting a little too much faith into the Det/Psy powers. Any innocent result he gets is essentially meaningless unless there's only one scum left AND we have a detective. Why? The Detective only picks up a guilty on scum if they are designated as "the killer" that night. So he could target scum that isn't "the killer" and get an innocent. The opposite is true for the Psychologist, who gets a guilty if he targets scum who

isn't

the killer. So the Det/Psy only has a 50/50 chance of getting a guilty on scum tonight, with 100% chance of innocent on any town. If he gets a guilty, he knows it's scum, but if he gets an innocent it's possible he just targeted the wrong scum that night. When we're down to only one scum then the Psychologist becomes what the HT is now - a unique-claim with no extra use - and the Detective would basically be a cop.



I'm not saying I'm completely right. I'm just saying we should discuss the

possibility

of my idea before the HT claims. We still have more than two weeks to deadline, we can spend at least a little time going over it.