Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Umbrage]

You're exactly right. We are in a unique situation, one that I think might benefit from a no-lynch today. Maybe if you actually looked at what I was saying rather than just assuming that the no-lynch is suboptimal play regardless of the situation you'd understand.

There is no upside to no-lynching today over no-lynching tomorrow.

HT claims today, and if we still mislynch it's pretty obvious the scum will kill the HT too. That leaves it as four to two, none confirmed. Unless the Det/Psy has a guilty by that point (more on this later) this is a fairly bad situation to be in.

And what if the Det/Psy is killed tonight? My plan ensures that he lives. Besides, if the Det/Psy doesn't get a guilty, he can claim as well.

Except it's not. We have an available mislynch and no-lynch, due to the number of players. Going with a no-lynch does not reduce the number of lynches we have available, as it would if we had an odd number of players today. With the vig dead, there's only a lynch-scumkill dynamic. That means two deaths a day. Since we can still lose three townies without losing, and the scumkill always kills town, we can only mislynch once because a second mislynch would make it 2 town to 2 scum, which is endgame. After one mislynch we can still lose another town without losing, and the only way that'll happen is if we no-lynch. I'm suggesting we take that no-lynch today rather than after another mislynch.

I see your logic. But the scum's first kill landed on our most valuable PR. I don't want to take the chance they'll miss this time. The Det/Psych is our best shot. We have to keep the remaining PR alive for as long as possible. And that means killing the Hider Tracker.

We can no-lynch later, if the Psych/Det comes up empty-handed. But if we no-lynch now, there's still a chance the Det/Psych will be killed tonight. With my plan, there is no chance. The Psych/Det can live another day. If he has a guilty, he claims and we lynch scum. If not, then we no-lynch.

I'm sorry? How is confirming who the HT is equal to knowing without a doubt that someone is scum?

I meant town.

WIFOMy "Should the scum kill the confirmed town or try to hit the PR" aside, I think you're putting a little too much faith into the Det/Psy powers. Any innocent result he gets is essentially meaningless unless there's only one scum left AND we have a detective. Why? The Detective only picks up a guilty on scum if they are designated as "the killer" that night. So he could target scum that isn't "the killer" and get an innocent. The opposite is true for the Psychologist, who gets a guilty if he targets scum who isn't the killer. So the Det/Psy only has a 50/50 chance of getting a guilty on scum tonight, with 100% chance of innocent on any town. If he gets a guilty, he knows it's scum, but if he gets an innocent it's possible he just targeted the wrong scum that night. When we're down to only one scum then the Psychologist becomes what the HT is now - a unique-claim with no extra use - and the Detective would basically be a cop.

If the scum don't kill the HT, then we get a confirmed townie for the next day as well. Either way, we win.

Yes, the Det/Psych isn't perfect, but it's our last PR.

TL; DR:

Abelcain's plan - No-lynch today, scum have a chance of killing the HT or D/P.

My plan - HT claims, we lynch, scum kill HT, if D/P has guilty, he claims and we lynch, if not then we no-lynch.

[Regfan]

I can see the upside in no lynching today to reduce the suspect pool as it has to be done at some point during the next two days regardless, but I would prefer much more discussion before doing so. Umbrage, the idea of HT claiming is pure stupidity it guarentess the death of what will essentially be a clear, and it's not as if their reads are going to be any better then ours. Your insistance to bring up anti-town suggestions is growing old to be quite frank.

My reads on other players at the current moment are all over the place.

My town-read on Snakes dissapearing as the game progresses his intial argument against Umbrage is the only real attempt at scumhunting he has done throughout the game, the rest seems to be more him coasting through the game.

Assuming DarthYoshi flips mafia, then I'd be close to certain that Vordark is town, I don't see their interactions likely to be a buss especially given the current and initial position, with this setup mafia seem to be at a massive disadvantage thus a day-one full out buss would be idiotic.

I read Ythans misundertandig of who's dead/alive to be a dumb-tell in some rights, I don't see him making that mistake or attempting to act dumb as mafia, thus I read him as town at the moment.

My read on Krazy has been flip-flopping throughout the game, intially I had a fairly null/town read on him, however with every comment he's making I become less sure on this. I'll ISO him later and state my current thoughts.

Not much has changed in terms of my read on Umbrage, I find his posts to be annoying to the point of utter frustration but it seems far more like a misguided townie then anything else, thus I still believe he's dumb-town.

Intially Abelcain was one of my larger suspects, and while he still is on my suspect list his posts are starting to contain great amounts of logic, especially the suggestion and speculation in regards to the ML/NL idea. My read on him right now is probbaly leaning null/mafia.

I've been re-reading the case against Yoshi more and more over throughout today and it seems to hold ground. Although his interaction with Quaroth comes out null, I find the way he was constantly attacking Iamusernames logic thoughout yesterday to be extremely off-putting to say the least. He was attempt to unverify Iamusernames suspicion against him by attacking the lack of content that Iamusername posted. With that said:

Vote: DarthYoshi

[Krazy]

I read Ythans misundertandig of who's dead/alive to be a dumb-tell in some rights, I don't see him making that mistake or attempting to act dumb as mafia, thus I read him as town at the moment.

And you are then presuming he would be dumb-telling as town? You should really look at his other games then.

[Regfan]

And you are then presuming he would be dumb-telling as town? You should really look at his other games then.

Care to provide me with links of where he's made similar errors as mafia then please?

[Krazy]

I'm saying he doesn't dum-tell as town, and I'd be happy to provide you examples of that.

[Regfan]

Sure, I'd love those links. Does that mean you believe his posts in relation to the dead players was him:

A) Actually forgetting who was dead and unrelated to his allignment or
B) An attempt to seem as if he didn't know who was dead in hope that people would read him as town and thus leading him to be mafia.

[Krazy]

I'm not a huge fan of metaing a player, but since Regfan otherwise is going to use dumb-telling as a town-tell, I am going to show him why that should not be presumed to be the case.

Here is Ythan as town-sided:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 89&start=0

Dr, you're scum. Your hop onto Net is disingenuous and your demand that he provide meta to dispute it as well. Beef, how can you suspect just me OR Net if the basis of your suspicion is that we're both scum?

Bullshit it's active lurking. Not every post devoid of content falls under that heading.

Characteristics: Direct, aggressive, and attentive.


Apparently I can't find Ythan as scum so here is Ythan as a third party:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 1&start=25

Downplaying his lack of participation:

51:

Sorry about the spotty attendance. I think I missed where the Amish case became obvious. Post number?

Talking about dead players:

Don't try to deflect attention away from yourself, especially if you're going to do it wrong considering that I'm espousing a dead survivor.

Characteristics: Apologetic, distracted, interested in dead players more than the living.

In no game as town does he dumb-tell, but as third-party he will ask odd questions about the dead. So yes, Ythan dumbtelling as town is unusual.

[Umbrage]

Umbrage, the idea of HT claiming is pure stupidity it guarentess the death of what will essentially be a clear, and it's not as if their reads are going to be any better then ours. Your insistance to bring up anti-town suggestions is growing old to be quite frank.

AND WHAT DO YOU CALL MASSCLAIMING DAY ONE YOU FUCKING HYPOCRITE?

YES IT GUARANTEES THE DEATH OF A CLEAR. IT ALSO GUARANTEES THE SURVIVAL OF OUR LAST POWER ROLE.

AT LEAST WITH MY PLAN WE GET SOME USE OUT OF THE HIDER TRACKER BEFORE IT'S KILLED.

THE HIDER TRACKER IS USELESS AT NIGHT. THE DET/PSYCH IS VERY USEFUL AT NIGHT. SACRIFICING THE HT TO SAFE THE D/P IS A GOOD MOVE.

IF WE NO-LYNCH, THEN SCUM JUST HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT A POWER ROLE. AND SO FAR THEIR AIM HAS BEEN PRETTY FUCKING GOOD.

BUT AS I SEEM TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH ENOUGH BRAINS TO SEE THIS:

VOTE: NOFUCKINGLYNCH

JUST REMEMBER THAT WHEN WE ALL WAKE UP TOMORROW WITH OUR LAST PR DEAD AND ALMOST NO INFO TO GO ON THAT UMBRAGE HAD A WAY OUT.

[Regfan]

@Krazy, I'll read into those games after my test tommorow, but for now I think I understand where you're coming from.

@Umbrage, day one was an entirely different scenario, we had four power roles alive then, one being hider who had the opportunity to clearing/confirming a player and vig who had the possibilty of shooting a second time thus removing the need for a no lynch. There's also a massive difference between 'Nolynching now' and 'Nolynching later today when more discussion has occured' that should be noted. Your rant really doesn't add anything apart from showing your lack of ability to stand back from a situation and reasess it.

[Umbrage]

@Umbrage, day one was an entirely different scenario, we had four power roles alive then, one being hider who had the opportunity to clearing/confirming a player and vig who had the possibilty of shooting a second time thus removing the need for a no lynch.

Yes, it was a different scenario, and it was still a bad idea. And in any other scenario, the HT claiming would be a bad idea. But we are talking about now. And you have yet to say why my idea is bad other than it means the HT will die. Guess what? The HT is useless unclaimed. If the HT does not claim, it is just a vanilla townie. If the HT is killed, that means that scum killed a vanilla townie. And since we don't have any doctors, that's the best we can hope for.

The choice is this:

Get a clear now and save the last PR.

Maybe get a clear later and don't save the last PR.

There's also a massive difference between 'Nolynching now' and 'Nolynching later today when more discussion has occured' that should be noted.

There is no fucking difference. As soon as it's clear we're no-lynching, nobody will try to defend themselves. And nobody will truly commit to a case.

Your rant really doesn't add anything apart from showing your lack of ability to stand back from a situation and reasess it.

You clearly haven't been reading.

You're the one that's so upset we didn't go through with your dumbfuck massclaim that you try and shoot down any GOOD idea that comes along.

You don't even have a decent argument as to why my plan is flawed. All you've done thus far is whine about it because that's what all the cool kids are doing. Everyone else disses Umbrage, so you've got to diss him as well if you want to look like a good townie!

If you're not just bullshitting to gain townie points, then PROVE WHY MY PLAN IS FLAWED. Don't throw ad hominem around. Don't complain about my ranting. SHOW ME LOGIC THAT PROVES MY PLAN IS NOT SOLID. Until you do that, your posts are a waste of space.

[Regfan]

It's actually infuriating attempting to explaining something to you Umbrage. I took back and agreed that mass-claiming wasn't optimal when I ran the numbers of what would occur if mafia claimed a power-role rather then vanilla so you're attempting to misrepresent the situation. But sure, if you want me to go over every reason behind why your plan is heavily flawed I shall do so.

If the Hider Tracker claims today:

- Today's lynch will have a higher chance of hitting scum because there will be a confirmed townie.
- Scum will have to kill the Hider Tracker tonight, meaning that the Psych/Det is safe another night.
- If scum chose not to kill the Hider Tracker, then we will have a confirmed townie alive for tomorrow's lynch as well, again meaning we have a higher chance of hitting scum.

1) You state that if HT tracker claims we increase our chances of hitting mafia from 2/8 to 2/7, the same upside is attained from NL"ing therefore this argument of yours is baseless even you should be able to agree to this.
2) You state mafia will be forced to kill the HT tonight, this increases the chances that they hit a PR from 2/6 to 6/6 thus not beneficial and if for some reason they decide the HT isn't worth shooting and would rather shoot the Pysch/Detec the odds they hit the tracker increase from 1/6 to 1/5 thus again not beneficial.
3) Scum choosing not to hit the HT and hitting a townie is the same thing is as us NL'ing and mafia hitting a townie, the position we'd be in is the exact same therefore this isn't an argument as to why the HT should claim.

If the Hider Tracker does not claim today:

- The Hider Tracker could be killed tonight, meaning we lose our chance at having a confirmed townie for the rest of the game.
- If the Psych/Det claims he'll be killed that night and we'll lose our last PR, whereas the Hider Tracker has no powers and is thus expendable.
- If the Hider Tracker claims in lylo, the scum will counter-claim, and we won't get our confirmed townie. If we mislynch then, it's game over.

So if we want a free confirmed townie, it has to be today.

1) What does a confirmied townie offer us apart from his opinion and thoughts on players which would still be attained if we discuss our thoughts before we NL.
2) No one said anything about Psych/Det claiming therefore even bringing this up is pointless.
3) Tommorow won't be LYLO and tommorow is when the HT can claim, therefore this argument is moot as well.

I'll do a TLDR for you Umbrage. TLDR: HT claiming today offers two things.

A) A clear giving us a guarenteed townies point of view on something, if you want this we have 3 players who died guarenteed town whose opinions you can seek, the player who would be/is our clear will still be stating their opinion today and therefore if they die tonight we still have their thoughts. This means the benefit in HT claiming for this is gone.

B) It means that we increase the likelyhood of Psych/Detectives survival, oh wait we don't because it narrows down the Psych/Detect for mafia by doing so.

[Umbrage]

1) You state that if HT tracker claims we increase our chances of hitting mafia from 2/8 to 2/7, the same upside is attained from NL"ing therefore this argument of yours is baseless even you should be able to agree to this.

Yes, but no-lynching does not guarantee the D/P survives the night. Claiming does.

2) You state mafia will be forced to kill the HT tonight, this increases the chances that they hit a PR from 2/6 to 6/6 thus not beneficial and if for some reason they decide the HT isn't worth shooting and would rather shoot the Pysch/Detec the odds they hit the tracker increase from 1/6 to 1/5 thus again not beneficial.

The HT is not a PR. The only use of the HT now is to claim and be a confirmed townie for a day. Once the HT claims, they are as useful as a VT. If scum kill the HT after claiming, then it's the same result as scum killing a VT. Since we have no protective roles, scum killing a VT is the best possible scenario.

If the scum choose instead to try and kill the D/P, then we get another confirmed townie for the next day, and for every day thereafter until the scum hit the D/P.

We either get a safe PR, or an extra confirmed townie. Either way, we win.

3) Scum choosing not to hit the HT and hitting a townie is the same thing is as us NL'ing and mafia hitting a townie, the position we'd be in is the exact same therefore this isn't an argument as to why the HT should claim.

Except that we're infinitely more likely to hit scum today by claiming and lynching than no-lynching.

1) What does a confirmied townie offer us apart from his opinion and thoughts on players which would still be attained if we discuss our thoughts before we NL.

Having a confirmed townie is always a good thing. It narrows down the possible lynch candidates and saves a lot of time. And you know you can trust confirmed town. Earlier, someone was suggesting we analyze the suspects of the dead confirmed. A living confirmed is far more valuable.

2) No one said anything about Psych/Det claiming therefore even bringing this up is pointless.

You said that the HT claiming is bad because he'll be killed. But the HT being killed after claiming is a very good outcome, because the HT is not a PR. If a PR like the P/D claimed, then yes, it would be bad. But the HT is not like that.

3) Tommorow won't be LYLO and tommorow is when the HT can claim, therefore this argument is moot as well.

Hopefully, yes. Unless the HT is killed. Or the P/D could be killed, which would not happen if the HT claimed now.

A) A clear giving us a guarenteed townies point of view on something, if you want this we have 3 players who died guarenteed town whose opinions you can seek, the player who would be/is our clear will still be stating their opinion today and therefore if they die tonight we still have their thoughts. This means the benefit in HT claiming for this is gone.

A living confirmed is far more valuable than a dead confirmed. Ask anyone. Proof? Scum always kill confirmed town. Always.

B) It means that we increase the likelyhood of Psych/Detectives survival, oh wait we don't because it narrows down the Psych/Detect for mafia by doing so.

At the price of having confirmed town alive another day. If they don't kill the HT, the scum gamble. And if they take the gamble and lose, we have an incredible advantage.

Put yourself in the scum's shoes. Do you really think they will want to take the chance that they'll hit the PR at the cost of having confirmed town again? Either:

a) The scum don't feel confident enough to make the kill and go for the safer option of killing the HT.

or

b) The scum are confident enough that they know who the D/P is, and if they are that certain, then they must have figured out who it is already. In that case, then it's safe to say that having another potential target crossed off the kill list won't make a difference.

So either the scum know who the D/P is, in which case the HT should claim today because he won't be killed and we'll get an extra confirmed town, or they know don't know who the D/P is, in which case they'll have to play it safe and kill the HT, ensuring the D/P stays alive.

[Regfan]

You clearly underestimate the importance fo the HT, even though they now have no powers they're a complete clear, therefore the longer they're kept alive the better it is for us - thus the claiming of them is stupid and idiotic.

On the other hand, you'r overestimating the power of the psychologist/detective. Lets explain these two just a little more;

The psychologist sends in someones name "If they have already killed another player, or kill another player on the night you invethem, you will be told that they do not have the capability to kill". Therefore if Quaraoth didn't send in the kill last night then that means one of the mafia alive must have. This means if that player is ever checked a 'no guilty' would come back. This means the other mafia will send in the kill tonight, and thus a 'no guilty' will come back. This means the psychologist will NEVER get a guilty. Meaning the psycologist will either A) Give us a false clearance on a player or B) Just be a plain clear like the HT, meaning the psychologist isn't worth sacrificing the HT over. I don't see how you can disagree with any of this, in fact I'd like to see you try.

There's a 50% chance the psychologist is in the role in the game. If this is the role in the game it will be impossible to attain a guilty thus this role is just like the HT.

The detective, sends in someones name "I will return a result indicating whether or not that player has killed another player at night on any night, including the night that your action was submitted". Therefore if Quaraoth didn't send in the kill last night and mafia do split the checks then like in the previous scenario this role has a 1/7 chance of getting a guilty tonight. And a 2/6 chance of getting a guilty the following night, the odds aren't massive. So again, this role although far superior to the psychologist is nowhere near worth sacrificing a clear to keep alive.

There's a 50% chance the detective is the role in the game. If this role is in the game, the odds of it getting a guilty tonight is roughly a 1/7. This odds aren't very high.

Neither role has the ability to clear a player so the idea of 'The HT dying is fine since we get another clear' is pure stupidity.

[Umbrage]

You clearly underestimate the importance fo the HT, even though they now have no powers they're a complete clear, therefore the longer they're kept alive the better it is for us - thus the claiming of them is stupid and idiotic.

The longer they go without claiming, the higher the chance they will be killed. If you really think the HT is important, then you wouldn't want to risk the chance that they are killed before they get a chance to claim.

On the other hand, you'r overestimating the power of the psychologist/detective.

If the P/D is really as useless as you say, then why fret over the fact that scum would have a slightly better chance at killing him? That's the one arguable downside to my plan: scum might decide to kill the P/D instead of the HT, and they'd have a better shot at it. But if the P/D is useless anyway, that renders the point moot.

No matter how you look at it, the P/D is more valuable than the HT. Period. I don't want to hear about how slim the chance of a guilty is. It's still an infinitely greater chance than the HT getting a guilty. So sacrificing the HT to protect the P/D is a good move. End of story.

Now, you're assuming that the longer the HT can be kept alive, the better. But the HT is only useful if he claims. We have no protective role. The scum have shown themselves to be excellent shots. So the longer the HT holds off on claiming, the more likely it is that he will be killed before he can claim. And then we've lost our advantage.

Moreover, if the HT waits until lylo, as you seem to be suggesting, the scum will be able to counter-claim and we will again lose the advantage of having a confirmed townie.

Therefore, it is in the best interest of the town for the HT to claim as soon as possible, so that the scum can not kill him or CC him.

The HT claiming now has the added benefit of allowing the P/D to survive another night. If the scum decide to try and kill the P/D and miss, then we've got them cornered. If they hit the P/D, they probably would've hit him if we'd no-lynched, but at least this way we get two lynches with a confirmed townie.

There is no downside to this plan. Every outcome is either identical or superior to the outcomes of a no-lynch. There is no benefit to no-lynching that cannot occur by lynching with an HT claim.

HT should claim in their next post, then we can finally get some scumhunting done today.

[DarthYoshi]

@DY, you're right I haven't defended myself.

This is because I don't see anything to defend.

For the most part, you seem to think I'm scum because I haven't contributed much content to the thread and because Quaroath defended me.

I know I haven't been contributing a whole lot, I'm not going to deny it

. Personal reasons that have no place in this thread have been making it difficult for me to spend a lot of time on this game the way I did in earlier games, and I'm honestly trying to get more into it. As for Quaroath defending me, I don't know what I'm supposed to say. The guy was scum. He was trying to buddy up to me. I'm not going to defend him because he was scum.

Emphasis mine. You say there isn't anything to defend, but then concede my accusation.

Your no-lynch suggestion is interesting...does anyone here who sucks less at math than me think it is viable as well? Krazy hinted that it might, but there would be some swinginess with the PRs. That being said, this is another example, I feel, of you contributing through general theory discussions rather than actual scumhunting.

BTW--I have every right to "bitch" at you for your vote, because you shouldn't need prompting twice a week from deadline to have your damn vote out. The case on Xtoxm was being made for a while, and you took your sweet time. To me, that says scum.

I've been re-reading the case against Yoshi more and more over throughout today and it seems to hold ground. Although his interaction with Quaroth comes out null, I find the way he was constantly attacking Iamusernames logic thoughout yesterday to be extremely off-putting to say the least. He was attempt to unverify Iamusernames suspicion against him by attacking the lack of content that Iamusername posted. With that said:

Vote: DarthYoshi

This vote is atrocious. You're put off by someone pointing out the lack of reasoning behind a vote on them? WTF? Srsly, that's what I see here--you're voting me because I pointed out that Iam wasn't putting a real case on me. Which, for the longest time, HE WASN'T. I can't defend myself against a case that doesn't exist other than to point out that the case doesn't exist. Your reasons are all from D1 play, so why weren't you voting for me then?

And, you vote for me after saying that Abel's No-Lynch idea contains "great amounts of logic." Then why aren't you voting for a no-lynch?

And when that's on the heels of putting me at L-2, the vote looks even worse.

You just lost serious towncred in my book.

[Krazy]

@Regfan, just looked at 576, and is there a reason you omitted Vordark from your list of reads?

[Ythan]

Having an uncounterable claim will be more and more valuable as the game progresses. Umbrage argues that we might lose the HT if they don't claim now. What, because scum will accidentally kill them? Scum will almost certainly kill them immediately after claiming. Umbrage's constant defense of an obviously antitown tactic is reinforcing his place as my number one read.

[Ythan]

I'm not sure I'm hearing krazy correctly from way back in that tunnel but it sounds like he's saying I don't make mistakes as town. For a guy who doesn't like meta he sure hasn't used anything else this game.

[Abelcain]

And what if the Det/Psy is killed tonight? My plan ensures that he lives. Besides, if the Det/Psy doesn't get a guilty, he can claim as well.

You're right. And under my plan, tomorrow, if the Det/Psy lives and doesn't get a guilty, and if the HT also lives, we'll get

two

PR claims. There's a 2/3 chance of them both surviving. Plus, if you have the Det/Psy claim tomorrow after a mislynch today, then his claim will be completely useless if the scum decide to counterclaim.



Wait a second. This just occurred to me, but it involves a counterclaim in your plan. It's possible that scum could fakeclaim Det/Psy and claim a guilty on a town. It's also possible that they could fakeclaim Det/Psy even if the real Det/Psy has a guilty. So even if the Det/Psy did get a guilty result tomorrow, there's no way to verify that it's an actual investigation result and not a fakeclaim from scum. This... completely removes any use the Det/Psy might have come tomorrow. If we decide to just lynch the guilty and it turns out to be a fakeclaim, we lose. If anything, the Det/Psy is just a glorified townie now the same way the HT is because scum wouldn't be stupid enough to just let the guilty go through if they can fake us out.

Now think about the no-lynch plan this way:

• Nobody claims today, and we don't lynch anyone. At night, there's a 1/3 the scum hit one of the power roles and 2/3 chance both power roles survive the night.
  
• Tomorrow, any surviving PRs claim. If we only have one surviving PR, so be it, we go with my original scenario where we still have the mislynch available to deal with any counterclaims. If we have both PRs leftover, they both claim tomorrow.
  
• If only one PR claims, they're cleared if there's no counterclaim or they help us narrow down one of the scum to one of two if there is a counterclaim (much in the same way of any normal counterclaiming scenario). That means we either have 2/6 chance of lynching scum tomorrow or 1/2 tomorrow and 1/4 the next day.
  
• If we have two surviving PRs, no counterclaims clears
  two
  town. This means we have two scum within a group of five, which is really good odds for us. If one role is counterclaimed, we have the available mislynch in case we accidentally kill the wrong claimer. If both roles are counterclaimed, that clears all the remaining townies and gives us a 50% chance of winning
  at worst
  , because we have an available mislynch to guarantee we kill at least one of the two scum and the second scum will be one of the two claimed for the other PR.
  
• As a bonus, if we ever do confirm the Det/Psy and he gets a guilty result, that's extra points for us too.

Emphasis mine. You say there isn't anything to defend, but then concede my accusation.

Uh... yeah. That's what I meant. Your accusation isn't something to defend against because I'm conceding it. You don't have a defense attorney argue on your behalf in court if you plead guilty to a crime.



@Krazy, I'm intrigued by the Ythan meta you have provided, and I know there was another one of his games that I looked at where he was also very aggressive and unlike the way he's acting now. I don't remember which game it was or what his role was, but you're right that he seems uncharacteristic of the way I expected him to play (and, in fact, even the way he was playing earlier in the game). This change in his behavior seems to have occurred during the night, since he was still acting pretty vicious towards the end of Day 1. I also don't like how he decided to try to push an Umbrage wagon at the end of the day with so little time to build it to anything, so it looks like he was really just trying to avoid being on a town wagon when the lynch went through so any votecount analysis would come up clean. (I'm sure someone else has mentioned that before, but I can't remember who it was if they did.) I'd like to get Ythan's perspective on the whole attitude situation before I start crying scum.

@Ythan, what do you think about the change in your behavior since the night? Or do you not think that there is any change? What about the meta that Krazy has provided on you?

[Snake Eyes]

Vote: No Lynch

No lynching will give us the best chance of having two roles survive until tomorrow and probably getting us another PsyDet result. And tomorrow we should massclaim, so we can get two confirmed townies(or one if a PR dies). The main reason to no lynch today is that we can't trust PR claims if we mislynch today, and there's a 1/4 chance we would form a wagon on one of our PRs as well. It's better to no lynch now than in mylo, when there's still a good chance scum will hit vanilla.

[Regfan]

@Umbrage, I'm losing patience attemping to prove to you why HT claiming is idiotic so I shall allow someone else to take over for now.

@Krazy, I believe I did state my read on him, if it isn't obvious enough it's null though if DY flips scum then I'm positive he's town.

@Abelcain, the meta that Krazy provided doesn't hold that much ground, I just read through one of Ythans games where his play was highly similar to that of this game. That along with the previous games provided essentially show that Ythan is generally a very erratic player-style wise meaning previous games have no real meaning towards his current allignment: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69&start=0

@DarthYoshi, there's a difference between someone pointing out the lack of reasoning on them and constantly attacking the player agreeing with their case, which is what you did to iamusername. You're attempting to misrepresent the situation by effectively saying 'This is out of the blue!' when the truth of the matter is that I stated my agreement to an extent with the case against you on day one, and proceeded to state I prefered the Xotxm lynch however I considered you two as likely partners. Now, what was the purpose of bringing up the L-2 vote, there's only two mafia alive if any blitz occurs we have both the mafia leaving there to be no real danger as of now. My initial intent behind the vote was to apply pressure in an attempt that you would say something allignment revealing however your reaction to it seems to be over-defensive and instead of stating your reads on players you're attemping to attack your town-read on me in hopes that I would change my mind. With that said, you're currently my largest suspect by far.

For now, Abelcain is correct a no-lynch is optimal.

Unvote, Vote: No lynch

Cut: @Snake: What's your reads on players at the moment?

[Krazy]

Vote: No Lynch

No lynching will give us the best chance of having two roles survive until tomorrow and probably getting us another PsyDet result. And tomorrow we should massclaim, so we can get two confirmed townies(or one if a PR dies). The main reason to no lynch today is that we can't trust PR claims if we mislynch today, and there's a 1/4 chance we would form a wagon on one of our PRs as well. It's better to no lynch now than in mylo, when there's still a good chance scum will hit vanilla.

Regfan ninja'd me on this, Snake, but I'd like to reiterate: Do you have any FoSes other than DY? Since RQS you have only commented on Umbrage, Xtoxm, and DarthYoshi. Q had to have had at least one other partner other than DY.

@Abelcain, the meta that Krazy provided doesn't hold that much ground, I just read through one of Ythans games where his play was highly similar to that of this game. That along with the previous games provided essentially show that Ythan is generally a very erratic player-style wise meaning previous games have no real meaning towards his current allignment: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69&start=0

I didn't see him dumbtelling in that game. My meta post was meant to explain that dumbtelling is not a town-tell.

[Krazy]

I don't like how fast this NL wagon is going. I think it'd be productive to get a second FoS from everyone who hasn't given one yet. That would include AbelCain certainly, and Regfan I can't tell from your last post if AC would still be your #2 or not. And an update from Umbrage on who either of his top two FoS are would be nice. DY a second FoS would be nice from you too.

My top FoS remains Ythan, but I will go ahead and drop my second FoS right now as Snake Eyes. I don't like how he dropped off the face of the earth after the game got rolling with Umbrage as a top candidate, and I'm really not liking his day 2 with the somewhat sheepish vote on DY and the really sheepish NL. And I especially don't like his complete lack of interaction with more than half the remaining living game.

[DarthYoshi]

Mod and all: I will be LA through Sunday. I should still be able to post here and there, but it may not be as frequent.

[Umbrage]

Having an uncounterable claim will be more and more valuable as the game progresses. Umbrage argues that we might lose the HT if they don't claim now. What, because scum will accidentally kill them? Scum will almost certainly kill them immediately after claiming. Umbrage's constant defense of an obviously antitown tactic is reinforcing his place as my number one read.

IDIOT.

READ MY POSTS.

THE WHOLE POINT IS THAT SCUM WILL KILL HIDER TRACKER THAT NIGHT.

I THOUGHT ABOUT THAT.

I THOUGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT COULD HAPPEN.

AND I POSTED EVERY POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

TRY READING IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND.

I DON'T FEEL LIKE REPEATING MYSELF AGAIN TO EXPLAIN WHAT I'VE ALREADY EXPLAINED A THOUSAND TIMES.

READ MY POSTS AND FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF.

IF YOU'VE NOTHING TO CONTRIBUTE OTHER THAN "UMBRAGE IS STILL SCUM" DO THE TOWN A FAVOUR AND REPLACE OUT NOW.

@ Krazy: Top two FoSes? Meaning take a stab at guessing the scum.

Honestly, Snake Eyes' lurkiness strikes me more as town than scum. I still think he's one of the scummiest players in the game, but I'm beginning to evaluate that read.

I'm still sure Abelcain knew Xtoxm's alignment. I simply can't see town saying something like that. Maybe I'm just paranoid though, nobody else seems to have seen it.

Lately I'm concerned about Ythan and his tunneling on me. When he was attacking Krazy, it was scummy, but understandable. But his town play has deteriorated even further. Krazy is way better than he is at this point.