Newbie 1076: Day Three

[chkflip]

So glad I didn't waste time making a case to spring D2. Bump, see rule 1.

BAH!

"I'm chkflip and I stole the mod's first post of the page because I'm a jerk x.x"
~chkflip and not Nacho the mod abusing editing powers.

[Nachomamma8]

Votecount 2-1:

DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (0) -
Common Man (0) -
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (0 )-
Sondanaa (0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -
Not Voting (7): DarkFlashlight, Otolia, Common Man, Spikkle, Kagetora, Sondanaa, DarlaBlueEyes


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Deadline is April 28, 2011.

[Glass]

@Kage
Who do you think is scum/town?

@Bump
Who do you think is more likely scum between kage and otolia?

[MrBump]

What's rule one? o.O

I'd say Otolia, but I'd be happy to lynch Kage today also under his play from yesterday.

[MrBump]

@Kage, you keep saying if we have only eight players we can lynch with more information. What more information would we get out of having ONLY the Night Kill?

[Glass]

Siiiigggghhhh. Back to this AGAIN?

[MrBump]

It's an important matter, we have to sort it >_>

[Glass]

It is common knowledge that a no lynch day 1 is a bad move. Kage has obviously realized this, but refuses to say he does because it would "make him look bad". Arguing this further is pointless unless he insists on no lynching today as well, in which case we each get 5 free hits on him. I know that you are not trying to learn that a no lynch is better, you are trying to attack kage by pointing out the flaws in the no lynch theory. He has already demonstrated his inability to change opinion even in light of obvious logic, so if you want to attack him there is a good place to start as any, but you trying to add more to this point is not necessary nor making your case stronger because it is already proven to us.

Anyways, I want to hear from DBE, otolia, and kage before I start pointing fingers.

[MrBump]

Exactly. Making himself look bad doesn't really matter too much if he's town. You don't worry "Oh I'll look scummy if I do something towny so I won't bother" as town, you do that as scum.

I agree with you, though, on hearing more. Needs moar posts.

[Olinea]

Hey, I'm here. I'm gonna try my hand at a VCA and see where that gets us.

[Otolia]

I'm still asking myself if I should get replaced. I have more reads now but I have little time in the week end and the beginning of next week. So if you feel I should get replaced now please say it.

[Glass]

@Olinea
lolololololololololol. Have fun with that.

@Otolia
It is your decision whether to replace out or not.

[Olinea]

Okay, since the VCA is guiding my vote for the time being, I'm labelling myself as Town. If you'd like to do your own non-Olinea VCAs that's cool, it just makes things easier for me.



DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (1) - Common Man,
Kagetora (0 )-

Sondanaa

(1) –

Sakako

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

,

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (4): Otolia, Spikkle, Kagetora,

Sondanaa

Not getting anything here.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (1) - Common Man,
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Sondanaa

(1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia,

Sondanaa

,

Sakako

(No Lynch (1): Kagetora,)


Nope.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) - DarlaBlueEyes,
Common Man (1) - DarkFlashlight,
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Sondanaa

(1) -

chkflip

,

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3): Otolia,

Sondanaa

,

Sakako

No Lynch (2): Kagetora, Common Man


Nope.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (3) - DarkFlashlight,

Sakako

, DarlaBlueeyes
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2):

Olinea

, Common Man
No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Common Man wagon picks up steam, Darkie's vote has been on longer, but I can't say I can honestly expect scum Darla to get on board with a Common Man wagon expecting it to go to completion.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (2) - DarkFlashlight, DarlaBlueeyes
Spikkle (0) -
Kagetora (1)- Spikkle,

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(0) -
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3):

Olinea

, Common Man,

Sakako

No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Okay, so Sakako's off, nothing new.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
GreyICE (0) -
Common Man (2) - DarlaBlueeyes, MrBump
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0)-

Olinea

(1) - GreyICE

Sakako

(1) - DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (1) -

chkflip

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (3):

Olinea

, Common Man,

Sakako

No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Interesting interactions with Common Man now. Darkie's off and MrBump gets on. Pulled this quote from Common Man:

@chkflip: Well as of what i think of the three who voted me.

DarkFlashlight

: He doesn't strike me as scummy at all. He played calm and stated logical ideas instead of "he is just a noob mafia who got scared, lynch him now".

Sakako

: I've been getting a small aura of scum from him ever since his first post and i cant exactly put my finger on it as to why. But beside that aura he seems fine to me.

DarlaBlueEyes

: She seems the most scummy out of the three. When she first voted me, the only reason she had was "scummy is as scummy does". Then the next post she still did give a reason. Then after that post she finally gave a reason which was nothing more than just "He is a noob mafia".

Overall I think it may hint towards Darkie-CM/Glass, like Darkie tried to play a bus and the wagon shot up faster than expected, hops onto Town.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Olinea

Common Man (3) - DarlaBlueEyes, MrBump,

Sakako

MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (1)-

chkflip

Olinea

(1) - Otolia

Sakako

(1) - DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1): Common Man
No Lynch (1): Kagetora,


Sakako on Common Man now, nothing new.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (0) -
Glass (2) -

Sakako

, DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (1)-

chkflip

Olinea

(1) - Otolia

Sakako

(3) - DarkFlashlight, Glass,

Olinea

DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (1): MrBump
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


MrBump/Glass now? I have a hard time believing Darkie and Glass, as a potential scumteam, would try back-to-back voting on Sakako, but it might have been a ruse to de-fuse any lingering Common Man stuff.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(3) - Glass,

Olinea

,

chkflip

DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Darkie's off Sakako now when the wagon starts picking up heat. Interesting.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (2) - MrBump,

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(3) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Nothing new, really.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -
L-1

Sakako

(4) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass, MrBump
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


MrBump rounding it off here. His reasoning is that the Sakako wagon is probably not going to burn out and he wanted to get to DAT STORY TIEM. Uh-uh. There was pretty much

no

suspicion from MrBump on Sakako, and he had doubts about Otolia/Kagetora/chkflip beforehand.


DarkFlashlight (0) -
Otolia (1) -

Sakako

Glass (1) - DarlaBlueEyes
MrBump (0) -
Kagetora (0) -

Olinea

(0) -

Sakako

(LYNCH) -

Olinea

,

chkflip

, Glass, MrBump, DarkFlashlight
DarlaBlueEyes (0) -

chkflip

(0) -
Not Voting (2): DarkFlashlight, Otolia
No Lynch (1): Kagetora


Darkie comes back for the =========[ ].


Things I notice:
~Kagetora's vote not budging an inch is worrisome, it makes it pretty difficult to get a good read.
~I'd be willing to bet a chunk of money on there being at least 1 scum in [DarkFlashlight, Glass, MrBump]; I can see Darkie/Glass and MrBump/Glass but not Darkie/MrBump. [DarlaBlueEyes, Kagetora] make everybody generally uneasy but they don't pair well with many. I still think Otolia is frustrated Town.

Vote: Glass

[DarkFlashlight]

The problem with that technique, Oli, is that you summarized the half page of Glass and myself discussing why I took my vote off, and summarized it as, "Interesting." Now, THAT'S not the problem, that's an example of the problem, which is cutting off every explanation and inventing one based off voting patterns, which may have been completely irrelevant. It's a good tool, but I wouldn't trust in it too much.


Let's get this question out of the way: Kage, will you vote today?

Also, Darla, have you caught up yet?

Killing chk was either:

1. Newbies [hypocritical] thinking IC=threat.
2. Someone chk accused wanting to silence him.
3. Someone thinking ahead and setting up either of the above.

I'm not gonna bother trying to guess which one it was yet.

[Glass]

The amount of fail in Oli's post is truly stunning.

Let me point out what is wrong with it.
a VCA is entirely wild speculation if a scum has not flipped. Let me show you through the power of quoting and asking questions.

Okay, since the VCA is guiding my vote for the time being

This is so scummy I don't even know what to say. Are you saying that this VCA is better than ALL the information you gathered over day 1? How on earth can it be the only thing guiding your vote?
VOTE: Olinea
Now, onto the actual VCA

Common Man wagon picks up steam, Darkie's vote has been on longer, but I can't say I can honestly expect scum Darla to get on board with a Common Man wagon expecting it to go to completion.

Really? You don't? In most newbie games I have played/spectated the VI newbie who gets wagoned early on is eventually lynched because they have no idea what is going on, let alone have enough knowledge to be able to show people that they are town enough to unvote them.

@chkflip: Well as of what i think of the three who voted me.
DarkFlashlight: He doesn't strike me as scummy at all. He played calm and stated logical ideas instead of "he is just a noob mafia who got scared, lynch him now".
Sakako: I've been getting a small aura of scum from him ever since his first post and i cant exactly put my finger on it as to why. But beside that aura he seems fine to me.
DarlaBlueEyes: She seems the most scummy out of the three. When she first voted me, the only reason she had was "scummy is as scummy does". Then the next post she still did give a reason. Then after that post she finally gave a reason which was nothing more than just "He is a noob mafia".

Overall I think it may hint towards Darkie-CM/Glass, like Darkie tried to play a bus and the wagon shot up faster than expected, hops onto Town.

What the... So I am DFL's scumbuddy because CM said that he thinks that DFL is town? What makes you think that DFL is scum in the first place? What makes you think that I am scum in the first place? Your accusations here are truly just wild speculation.

MrBump/Glass now? I have a hard time believing Darkie and Glass, as a potential scumteam, would try back-to-back voting on Sakako, but it might have been a ruse to de-fuse any lingering Common Man stuff.

Where are you getting this from man? Did you not just say a second ago that CM's post points to me and DFL being a scumteam? Where is this bump/glass shit coming from? Because bump unvoted me? You don't think it is possible that he unvoted me because... There was reason to unvote me? You realize that sakako also meant to unvote before he did?

Darkie's off Sakako now when the wagon starts picking up heat. Interesting.

Paraphrased version: "I want to attack DFL for this, but then I realized that sakako flipped town, so I can't even yell out that it might be a sakako/DFL scumteam"

MrBump rounding it off here. His reasoning is that the Sakako wagon is probably not going to burn out and he wanted to get to DAT STORY TIEM. Uh-uh. There was pretty much no suspicion from MrBump on Sakako, and he had doubts about Otolia/Kagetora/chkflip beforehand.

Fair point, but nothing to do with the VCA.

~I'd be willing to bet a chunk of money on there being at least 1 scum in [DarkFlashlight, Glass, MrBump]

And why is that? I mean, it is possible, but it is just as possible that
1. You are scum
2. There was no scum on his wagon

I can see Darkie/Glass and MrBump/Glass but not Darkie/MrBump. [DarlaBlueEyes, Kagetora] make everybody generally uneasy but they don't pair well with many.

So now you voted me because... Well I am not really sure, I think it is because if two out of me, DFL, and bump are scum than I am a likely scum?
THAT IS A PRETTY BIG IF, OLI.

From what I see is that since you had no confirmed scum to actually make your VCA mean anything, you did your entire VCA under the assumption that I am scum and then placed your vote on me because your VCA shows that I am scum. Circular logic.

[Kagetora]

Is there something to the flavor that I'm not picking up on? I feel like a reference to something is flying over my head...

@Kage
Who do you think is scum/town?

Well since Sakako flipped town (who had hounded on Otolia), and Otolia's weird claim of being scum, I don't really think this is a gut feeling anymore when I say Otolia is probably scum.

@Kage, you keep saying if we have only eight players we can lynch with more information. What more information would we get out of having ONLY the Night Kill?

I think I've said this before, but I think my no lynch ideas come from playing with more power roles than this (and definitively knowing the set up). The claims and information I'm used to getting today regarding night actions would tend to make lynching the first day dangerous.

Let's get this question out of the way: Kage, will you vote today?

Definitely

@Otolia: I see three different possibilities for your claim of scum, care to try to explain that post? Your 285 and 286 don't really sit well with me.

[Otolia]

I was pissed, and I wanted you to lynch me by getting you emotional . And curiously enough you didn't. Even though people thought I deserved it. Thus I am thinking the scum who voted Sakako thought I was not a threat and decided to finish the most dangerous player.

[MrBump]

So we've got AtE up in here, amirite?
AtE is bad. It is scummy.

Olinea's VCA, cute as it is, is fairly pointless without a scumflip. Drawing tiny links between us over one post once in the game is simply not going to work. Especially as you have no clue that even one of us is scum at all.

~I'd be willing to bet a chunk of money on there being at least 1 scum in [DarkFlashlight, Glass, MrBump]

You see, that's the part of your VCA which kinda sends my scumdar off in alarms. Your entire case for us three is built around us being scumteams. Yet it's a possibility that only ONE of us is scum? What are you, crazy?

Kage, what I

don't

understand is that you refused to say (IIRC) a read basiclaly all of yesterday and adamantly stuck by No Lynching, purely defending yourself. Now today you have suspicions on Otolia. What are your thoughts on the kill, the lynch, all of the activity Day One?

@Everyone, why do you think chkflip was killed?

This thread needs moar posts.

[Glass]

@Everyone, why do you think chkflip was killed?

We already covered that and I would rather not go back there unless someone has some genius idea.

This thread needs moar

posts

dbe + oli.

fixed

[MrBump]

Well, it needs moar people who haven't posted.

When did we cover that? o.O

[Glass]

See:
323, 324, 338

DFL saying essentially the same thing I did, along with others who did not say anything in their first posts about the NK (where I would expect NK talking to be), made me think that they agree with us or believe that NK analysis is rather pointless. Again, if they have something genius to say about it they can go ahead.

[MrBump]

Hmm, I suppose you're right. This thread still needs moar posts from people who AREN'T me/Glass.

[Olinea]

Alright, well, MrBump's comment about "One scum in DFL/Glass/Bump" makes me realize that the VCA is really only condemning for you three because you're really the only ones (besides Sakako) who moved your votes throughout D1. There wasn't any way to extract information from Kagetora's and DarlaBlueEyes' voting patterns, so they pretty much flew under the radar on that one. He also does raise a good point about the entire reason behind voting Glass is that interactions would pair him with either Darkie or MrBump, too.

I'd still like to think a VCA is useful even without scumflips, but it's probably not

as

effective in smaller games with smaller wagons. Meh. I'm learning.

@Glass: The results of the VCA are not due to confirmation bias. But yeah, I do see that they're flawed.

Unvote: Glass

As a heads-up, my professors are piling Chem and Physics midterms for me on Monday, so this weekend (and Monday) is/are going to be devoted to studying, Monday for doing the exams, and Tuesdays are 9-hour class days, so

LA for until Tuesday evening.

I can

try

to get on and post a bit, but no promises.

[Glass]

Well... That sucks. Good luck oli.

What I forsee for the next few days:
-DFL to post once or twice
-DBE to continue to be AWOL
-bump to complain about lack of posting
-Oli to not post
-Kage and otolia continue to only respond to messages/questions directed at them

[Glass]

Bad grammar in last post. Meh.
Since I want to try and get the ball rolling a bit:

@Kage
You have not expressed your thoughts on anybody other than otolia, who you believed to be scum. So why have you not voted?