A Storm of Swords - Lay your swords down!

[Magua]

Spoiler: Spoilers for this post

Twilight Sparkle is probably not Stark, and also probably right about Zdenek. God, I feel so dirty.

"Ascetic", since I was unfamiliar with it, is a role where all non-kill actions on you fail (investigations, tracks, protects, etc). Got that confirmed by the mod.

How "Ascetic" interacts with "Godfather", the mod refused to tell me. Also wouldn't tell me if the "Ascetic" was added on like Zdenek claims that Bulletproof was added on. So take that as you will.

hasdgfas, who are your suspects?

Answer, please.

Now, evaluations and whatnot:

Absolutely Town
---------------
5) Benmage - Confirmed town (Kettleblack)

21) GreyICE DTMaster popsofctown - Confirmed Jaime Lannister, and my god, if Jaime Lannister isn't town in this game, I am going to track Faraday and Seacore down and eat their babies

10) Hasdgfas - I continue to disagree with Andrius. If hasdgfas is a scum dayvig who claimed it D1 and then shot a teammate, congratu-fucking-lations, you win three internets. I maintain scum-dayvig is not impossible, but that scum dayvig would keep the shot to kill a claimed PR or similar.

14) Shadow1psc - Wedding PR aside, I maintain Shadow as my strongest townread. If he's scum, congratu-fucking-lations to him too.

The Usual Suspects
------------------

This leaves five slots that I worry about: Locke Lamora, Danakillsu, LynchMePls, Zdenek, and Twilight Sparkle. At least two of them are scum. Maybe three.

Locke Lamora:

Mod confirmed Gregor Clegane. Can't be Stark, in all good conscience. Can be SK. I admit, the more I think about this idea, the more I like it, so maybe there's some confirmation bias going on, but the only argument *against* it that I've heard is that he was the lyncher target. Not sold on that as a defense. Gamewise, his play has been poor, he's been neutral, indifferent -- classic SK play. I really am taken with this idea.

Danakillsu:

So I did some VCA over the weekend. Pop quiz: Who has been voting flipped scum more in each vote count than anyone else? Danakillsu. It's all in the Mikujin/Setael lynch agitation D1, and it never really lets up. Now, with Setael flipping Godfather, does anyone think Stark has any other investigative-immunity roles? I don't. Which means that Danakillsu would have to be a goon if he's Stark, and I still don't bloody believe that Stark has any goons.

So not Stark. SK? Meh. Possible that that would show up empty to a rolecop, but I really, really, really doubt it. His play has been aggressive, in your face. I think Dana is town.

LynchMePls:

Think he's town. Even moreso, now; scum-claiming-the-Chesskid-kill-that-they-themselves-did would explain why there seems to be a kill missing D1, but LMP's claim as CPR doc partly clears Zdenek, which only makes sense if LMP is Zdenek's partner, which doesn't make a goddamn bit of sense at all.

Zdenek:

Can't be the SK, since I totally and completely believe that Nexus was roleblocking him up until his death. I am coming around to him being Stark, however. This is, at this point, a highly process-of-elimination affair -- I simply suspect everyone else of being Stark less than him.

Twilight Sparkle:

Remember that VCA I did? Pop quiz #2: Guess who, amongst those still alive, has never voted one of the flipped scum, even once? Twilight Sparkle.

I mean, not even once. I mean, not even Setael D5. Now, this isn't a crucifying feature (Kast was the same, for instance), but still. That's just odd. TS' big pools of votes are Thor (town), Raivann (town), Zdenek (unknown), and Shadow (unknown, but still goddamn town).

The odd part is that if Twilight is scum, I'd expect to see *a few* votes for scummates here and there. Maybe one for MagnaofIllusion D2 when Magna was pushing the TS wagon. *Something.*

Looking over Magna's push on TS D2 leads me to believe it's not bussing.

TS could still be the SK, though.

VCA
---

When I say I did a VCA, I mean that I took all of the votecounts and parsed them out for X votes Y in post Z on day A. Then I could easily look for patterns.

Mafia votes: We've got four mafia. Let's analyze their votes! Sadly, it's not exactly illuminating, since two of them died before N2, but, y'know. Let's do it anyways.

Xtoxm:

Is voting xvart in 2 vote counts. 100% non-mafia vote. Then he died.

diddin:

votes Raivann in 11 vote counts (town), myself in 8 (I'm town, so bugger off), GreyICE in 5 (I'm counting him as town), and bringing it up with Zoraster (3rd party) in 1 and Benmage (town) in 1. 100% non-mafia votes. No bussing.

Both of those are pretty much useless, unless you think that diddin's voting me means something, but likely you've already made up your mind one way or the other about that awhile back.

MagnaofIllusion:

Is more interesting:
Day 1: 11 vote counts for Zoraster (3rd party), 9 for diddin (mafia, bussing), 6 for Zdenek (unknown), 1 for Benmage (town)
Day 2: 23 vote counts for Twilight Sparkle (unknown), 3 for Feysal (town).

I originally wrote Magna off as not being scum because of the D1 diddin voting. Mistake, as it turned out. So the question is, is Twilight Sparkle bussing or mislynching?

He votes diddin in #287, putting him 3rd on the diddin wagon. He unvotes diddin in #585, which is 5 real life days later, to start the Zoraster wagon, which he'll stay on until the day ends (this is before Xtoxm gets shot, btw). My read on this is he holds his vote on diddin to build up cred, but then leaves before it might go somewhere. He avoids jumping on the xvart wagon (which was leading with 5 votes at the time) but instead starts a new one of his own.

Now, D2, Magna votes Twilight Sparkle in #973, putting him second on the wagon (after me). He rides that lynch just about all day long, jumping onto Feysal only at the end in #1484. At that point, the votes are close for both wagons (Twilight has 5, Feysal has 6; Magna's vote makes that 4 and 7), but it's clear the Feysal lynch has momentum -- he claims only a few posts after Magna jumps.

Much like with diddin jumping from Raivann to Zoraster D1, I don't think that scum who are on a buddy's lynch that's not going to happen jump to the main bandwagon lynch -- if you're going to bus, seems to be better to be consistent about it and just stay on your scumbuddy's wagon, since you know a town is being lynched anyways.

Factor into this that Magna has also seen one buddy get dayvigged D1, and another get shot N1. I doubt that bussing and pushing suspicion onto a teammate is high on his list of priorities at the moment.

End result: I think Twilight is town.

Setael:

Setael is just a list of town votes:
D1: DrippingGoofball (16), Shadow1psc (8), Benmage (1)
D2: Feysal (19), Nexus (2)
D3: Raivann (13)

All of the above are confirmed town, and Shadow is really goddamn close to it.
All that leaves are votes for Zdenek: 4 on D3, 3 on D5. The D5 votes are ignorable, though -- there's no way that Setael wasn't going to be the lynch, so that's WIFOM stew right there.

TL;DR
-----

SK (in order of preference from most to least): Locke Lamora, Twilight Sparkle, danakillsu, LynchMePls (reaaaaal unlikely), Zdenek (even more unlikely)

Stark (in order of preference from most to least): Zdenek, Twilight Sparkle, LynchMePls, danakillsu (Locke is off of this list)

I think there's one Stark. I think Nexus died because it was a given that Setael was going to get lynched, and that that would leave Zdenek the last mafia.

VOTE: Zdenek

[Eddard Stark]

Magua (1) - Danakillsu
Zdenek (1) - Magua

Not voting (8) Twilight Sparkle, Hasdgfas, LynchMePls, Benmage, Popsofctown, Zdenek, Locke Lamora, Shadow1psc

10 players remain, 6 to lynch. Deadline is 23rd of April at 4pm my time aka British Summer Time[/mech]

[Magua]

@Mod:

I'm voting Zdenek, not LMP.

[Eddard Stark]

Yes sir you sure are [thanks]

[popsofctown]

Vote:zdenek

It's finally happening.

[hasdgfas]

hasdgfas, who are your suspects?

Answer, please.

*points at Zdenek*
*hesitates*
*points at Locke*
*hesitates*
*points at Magua*

vote: zdenek

[Benmage]

Mina, noone voted Magua because we all believed Thor was flipping scum.

Anyways I got dinner but I'll see if I can check back in later.

[popsofctown]

How was dinner benmage?

[Locke Lamora]

Magua, how many Lannister VTs do you think there would be, based on the assumption that the Starks don't have any goons?

[Twilight Sparkle]

Locke, who do you think is scum?

[popsofctown]

LL is still alive??

[Zdenek]

Since we need to reduce the number of NK's, SK hunting is what we need to do:

Vote LL

Aside from Magua's conclusion through PoE that I am Stark, I agree with his analysis of the situation.

[popsofctown]

So you don't disagree with any of his various town reads that narrow you down to being scum, you agree with those, you just want the conclusion that you're scum to be ignored at the end.

[Zdenek]

So you don't disagree with any of his various town reads that narrow you down to being scum, you agree with those, you just want the conclusion that you're scum to be ignored at the end.

He didn't arrive at his conclusion through town reads.

If you want to know the specific parts of it that I am not in agreement with they would be the assumption that Starks don't have any vanilla goons and that Magna wasn't bussing TS.

[popsofctown]

We're using different terminology, I call anything that brings you to believe that a certain person is probtown as "townread".

I feel like I shouldn't have had to prompt you to hear what you didn't agree with. Or prompt you again to explain why you think your assumptions are superior to Magua's in those two cases. Or prompt you to give a decent defense since you're on the chopping block.

[Shadow1psc]

vote: Bunnylover

You've played scummy all game and you weren't even on the Setael wagon. Bad bunny.

Are we just ignoring this post? This is monumentally bad no matter how you look at it really. The most you could downplay this is WIFOM. Coupled with the fact though that his next post doesn't really acknowledge the faux pas with so much as a 'whoops', this really doesn't strike me as genuine as TS got from it.

[Shadow1psc]

Having said that, I'm still not convinced on LMP. I think there is way too much town killing power. This is one of those things, where in a worst case scenario, Stark could have lost like n2. We have a 3-way confirmable group and a 4th confirmable friendly Lannister. Plus the normal set of town power, this is a really heavy game. Granted, I don't know if this is par for the course in the 'series' at this point, no one else seems to be making a fuss over the insane amount of killing power town had, but

dayum

.

[Zdenek]

We're using different terminology, I call anything that brings you to believe that a certain person is probtown as "townread".

I feel like I shouldn't have had to prompt you to hear what you didn't agree with. Or prompt you again to explain why you think your assumptions are superior to Magua's in those two cases. Or prompt you to give a decent defense since you're on the chopping block.

I'm not saying that the assumption the Starks have a goon is superior to the one that they don't, but just that I don't think that it is a good assumption to use to clear someone. However, I've decided that Dana is cleared, see below.

I've already explained what I think of Magna's push against TS: TS is a hydra of skilled players that will be naturally hard to lynch, so attacking them is fairly safe.

As far as me being Stark goes: I was suspicious of Diddin, Magna and Setael fairly early on. I admit that my read of Magna changed, but I really thought that his co-operation with benmage was pro-town. I can't stop you if you want to attribute this to bussing or distancing.

Finally because of Nexus' presumably role-blocking me and their being two kills the night he died, I can't be the SK. I am guessing that the night before there was overkill on Kast, which makes sense. Although, now as I think about it, since Setael was presumably investigation immune, this line of reasoning clears Dana.

The bottom line is that I can't be SK, so on the off chance that two Starks remain, I would be a bad lynch.

[Locke Lamora]

TS: right now I'd say Magua, Dana, Zdenek. To be perfectly honest I need to do some rereading and my motivation for this game has not been great ever since it turned into 'everyone claim and let's lynch from a list'.

As for the N4 kill, can anyone tell me why they think Nexus blocked Zdenek instead of the super obv-scum (and probably immune to night actions) Setael?

[popsofctown]

You aren't even arguing that you aren't scum anymore. You're only arguing that you aren't SK. It's funny, really.


pedit: LL, Setael is confirmed to be immune to night actions... This is a good argument..

[Locke Lamora]

I know the ascetic bit means immune to night actions. It's the modified bit that I don't know what the meaning is. But yes, if I was Nexus and I absolutely knew Setael was scum, I think I'd probably be quite likely to block them.

[popsofctown]

So that erodes the argument zden isn't SK completely?

[Locke Lamora]

It erodes Zdenek's 'I can't be SK because Nexus blocked me N4 argument', which as far as I can see is the main counter-argument. I thought the reasons for Zdenek being SK are that we know he's 'modified kill-immune' and Nexus blocked him on a night where there was only 1 kill. Neither of those will change. Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing with me? I can't tell.

[popsofctown]

Was there another night that he was roleblocked and only one kill happened? Or just the one?

[danakillsu]

@ Shadow1psc
The messup says absolutely nothing, nor could it. I could have messed that up if I was scum, and I did mess it up as town, so your point is worthless.

I wish people would go for Magua, which will get us some info, rather than the easy lynch target Zdenek. Seriously, he always looks scummy.