130.Mirror Mafia - Game Over

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/confirm

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I'll be V/LA with easter, from thursday evening till monday. Sorry I didn't mention it earlier.

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/out

I am in no condition to be playing at the mafia

It's an odd choice of words... but it isn't "on", or "in" the mafia. And Tasky didn't restart the game (which a mod could do if the game was ruined this early).

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Fun questions magister.

1. Usually I would want someone to help at least. Just to talk about the project. But still, the more the merrier. And doing the job is more important then getting praise anyway.

2. Depends really on the game, I guess. I'd probably try to play it with some other friends. Games aren't much fun when you aren't playing with other people.

3. No... I know its very annoying when your bike gets stolen.

4. Don't know how this is going to help you. 4th questions answer should be 4?


Zombeh, why use random.org? Are you trying to avoid responsibility?

Pacman, why claim now given that you'd take option 2 anyway (since that's the best play, obviously). It seems like a waste, why would you be so eager to tell the scum your plans?

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I'm gonna do something that I've never done in a serious game of mafia. Claim in my first post.

I'm the Town Hider. I figure I can use this power in 3 ways. I can say who I'm going to hide behind BEFORE each night and if I die without the person I'm hiding behind dying then you have confirmed scum and if I live you have confirmed town. Or I could say who I hide behind AFTER each night and since I'm still alive you'll have confirmed town. Or I could not say anything and just protect myself.

Flaws in each idea.
1. The biggest flaw in the first idea is that without the aid of a doctor or other protective role scum could just kill who I'm protecting to get rid of two town in one night.
2. The second idea seems like a good one to me, I can't really see anything wrong with it unless the game ends up having third parties that scum are trying to find, I could potentially eliminate candidates for them.
3. This just seems selfish and a waste.

Also, acronach, gtfo my avatar. :p

^Town

The flaw in #2 is you just dying during the night and us losing information. But what the best thing to do is make a list 2-3 people you're going to hind behind then choose one during the night. That takes away the flaw of the both ideas. The only problem is we won't have an exact guilty, but that's perfectly fine anyways.

I'm gonna do something that I've never done in a serious game of mafia. Claim in my first post.

I'm the Town Hider. I figure I can use this power in 3 ways. I can say who I'm going to hide behind BEFORE each night and if I die without the person I'm hiding behind dying then you have confirmed scum and if I live you have confirmed town. Or I could say who I hide behind AFTER each night and since I'm still alive you'll have confirmed town. Or I could not say anything and just protect myself.

Flaws in each idea.
1. The biggest flaw in the first idea is that without the aid of a doctor or other protective role scum could just kill who I'm protecting to get rid of two town in one night.
2. The second idea seems like a good one to me, I can't really see anything wrong with it unless the game ends up having third parties that scum are trying to find, I could potentially eliminate candidates for them.
3. This just seems selfish and a waste.

Also, acronach, gtfo my avatar. :p

^Town

The flaw in #2 is you just dying during the night and us losing information. But what the best thing to do is make a list 2-3 people you're going to hind behind then choose one during the night. That takes away the flaw of the both ideas. The only problem is we won't have an exact guilty, but that's perfectly fine anyways.

town hider huh? seems familiar...
http://www.epicmafia.com/role/154

third party much?

Third party accusation without a vote?
DOES NOT COMPUTE.

VOTE: ACRONACH

Thor, Twistedspoon is not a D1 lynch, and Zombeh isn't scummy yet. So, let's unite and kill ACRONACH.

This post is what you can wait for from eager scum. Acronach obviously is the weakest player of the first part of the game. He quite new (shown from the hider comment from epicmafia, and also other posts), he's enthousiast, meaning that acronach posts enough for some material early game. He's the easiest target. And scum jumps on eagerly.

But what's more off is that he is telling Pacman to give scum a 1/3 chance of making 2 kills. It's pointless and scummy. By not telling who he will target, Pacman will usually survive, unless he targets scum. Meaning that everytime he survives (common knowledge tells that's 3/4 times, I think), we have an inno. If we would follow this great plan by Calcifer, we would see that Pacman died, and if none of his three targets were killed, we would know that at least 1 of them is scum. That doesn't improve our odds that much at all. While it is riskier for our powerrole.

Calcifer was caught off guard by the early claim and tried to make a gutsy post to limit the threat pacman poses. And then he made a large post to make it seem like he scumhunted. While acronach is just an easy target.

vote Calcifer

I don't think your claim was well thought through, pacman, but this might make it worth it!

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I know zdenek, but I think there’s a difference between new scum and a new player. New scum gets caught on simple things. A new player is going to make mistakes. He clearly made mistakes, but did they anywhere show a scummy intent?

I believe not, which is why I’m ignoring him for a moment. What I can’t ignore is when someone proposes a strategy for a claimed powerrole, which he promises will net better results… while we can clearly see he’s lying. Calcifer seems manipulating scum, and not mistaken town.

But I have to say, the wagon also grew too fast, people are right in that. I’m at school now, so I don’t have time to read into it well, but the acronach wagon should be a good one to analyse.

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Kcda, what do you find so troubling in flinter's 'reach'? Am I reading you right in that you believe having an incorrect or potentially false conjecture makes someone mafia instead of just misguided?

The thing is, i don't have such a problem with the theory in of itself. It's a odd theory but justified townie when thought about. It's the fact that this comes at page 5. with little posting from any of the others s/he seems to want to try and push a complex theory. why? is s/he looking for scum? or a target?

It's a case i'd expect on D3 or D4.

But this early in D1?

shady as hell.

I could also say I got it from general scum meta. I thought it would better to explain my whole thought process. This way my vote is taken more serious, I think. It is in those 5 pages the thing that stood out to me. I don't exactly understand what your problem is. I didn't think it was very complex. I'll make a second post to explain you what I saw. And I'm a she


And about the Acro wagon: Zdenek is quite bland, does have decent posts. Though I have to ask you, could you please not make posts with a large amount of small quotes? Its now and then quite hard to read.

Bub's vote is odd. He basically repeats Calcifers reason with other words. Having that in a quote already.

I really don't know what to thing about Ctorj49. I hope he'll play later.

Ion I didn't check. Was there before the wagon started (Calcifer was the first to give a reason)

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could you explain better flint? for a simple guy (aka dumbass)?

There are two things in Calcifers post. His reaction to Pacman's claim, and his vote.

An early PR claim is designed to get people nervous. Since town is only considering how to abuse this for the good, they aren't nervous. Scum might be, as they are forced to react to something they didn't expect. So either scum lurk at such a key moment, or they try to make the best of it, hoping their nervousness doesn't show. Calcifer posted a strategy which won't work for that PR. I even think that was intentional. So, on a key moment, someone trips up, and to make it even more clear: he isn't very worried about "his" PR.

Added to that, his vote. It's the weaker part of my reasoning for my vote, I give you that, but I can't see a good reason to state that acronach is scum when he said that hider was a 3rd party role without a placing a vote. But it is easy to understand, and nobody would ask questions about such a vote. Acronach was a very easy target.

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Followed Cabooses link and he's right.

thor, just interested, but is your vote on me a random one?
if not, what's the non-wifom reason again?
my reaction was normal as obvtown pacman pointed out

However you're voting Twistedspoon for having the exact same thought I had when CJMiller said "at the"

he uses an argument based on an authority which isn't there. Pacman isn't an authority because of his claim, and I don't remind Pacman proclaiming that twistedspoon is clearly town.

This feels like manipulation to me:

unvote vote twistedspoon

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Flinter, the idea of my hider plan is to make sure that we at least have some sort of information to work with if epm dies from hiding behind scum. If scum shoot him in order to aim for 2 town deaths, then they're shooting someone scummy anyways so it's equivalent to scum killing pacman and someone vigging pacman's target. If scum fail, then we have a scummy person dying instead of a townie person, and we have another scummy person confirmed.

You really want me to think you are scum. EPM is most dangerous to scum when he gets more then one result. Hiding behind scummy people is just sending him on a suicide mission. And in your brilliant plan, he would have to say behind which three players he would hide. If he died, we would have a certain 1/3 chance that we'd find scum there. That's hardly better then random lynching.

@zdenek. Probably shortening your posts and trying not to react to everyone is a good idea. It makes your posts calmer and easier to read. (I couldn't get through yours completely now. Im at school and kind of busy)

and probably I'm not going to get any serious reads anymore before I'm getting back from V/LA. Please be nice to me, and don't post too much in that time

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Thank you for only asking me one question, guys. But furcolow, if people are gone for 4 days, it would really be appreciated if you didn't type up walls

Needless to say, I skimmed most of the pages for now. I saw some anti lurker action, which seems great, but in my experience is also a great place for scum to hide. People who aren't here much aren't defending themselves. It can be proven, just by counting posts, but we all know there is no certain way by which you find scum. I should check who of the people on the acronach wagon are also voting because of lurking now.

I'd also like to add that Ludi's influence on the game is very small. His questions allowed him to sit back, and I would've been fine with that if his interpretation would actually result in a vote. Even if the questions themselves didn't give anything good, that should be the sign that you need to search somewhere else.

FoS Ludi

As for the question, Thor, I really didn't know why my vote was there anymore. I forgot about the game mostly. I had a scumread on Calcifer, which was about pacman's claim, but that was all that was left. When I reread the post, I know I followed someone (I would have to reread that) onto that wagon, who had spotted that Twisted used Evilpacman as an authority for his townieness, which is bad argumentation and clear manipulation.

More tomorrow (I hope), and goodnight.

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I'm at school, so no catchup post yet, but this is too much fun too pass. I think I might have some time later for that promised analysis of the acronach wagon and lurkervotes as that should be a quick job.

@furc: I was gone, so now I have to read up. And I really don't have time for walls which tell me little. It already helps if you have a concise conclusion (so I can skip the rest when I'm in a hurry), but it would be even better if you didn't post things in a long way when they can be short.

@Ludi. My excuses, I wasn't aware at that point that you were already on Bud. Read through your explanation of your table, saw a lot of words below it where keywords indicated that you weren't sure of anything, saw no vote and quickly skimmed the next post

Now to the fun part:

I agree with Thor, and I'm willing to support a zdenek lynch today too.

However despite these concerns he is willing to lynch me today for what appears to be no reason.

I'm willing to support a zdenek lynch today too.

Vote Nocmen

He misquoted Nocmen, quite intentionally. One can argue whether following someone is good play, but obviously there are reasons that Nocmen is following. By cutting exactly that part of the sentence off where Nocmen points to where the reasons are (in one of Thor's posts), Zdenek creates the illusion that Nocmen is an insane scum who votes people for no reason at all.

And then he votes Nocmen, who indicated he might vote Zdenek. I think the term pre-emptive OMGUS applies. (voting the person who said he would vote you, but didn't yet do it).

The spoon tried to make himself look town, but this is some obvious manipulation too.

vote Zdenek

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Zdenek, you are completely right. Thor followed Calcifers read in stead of giving reasons.

It does seem like a technicality though, seen that you strawmanned Nocmen in quite an obvious way, followed by an OMGUS like vote. I find it quite telling that you don't reply to those accusations, but need to point out that "Thor never had reasons". Thor only had a preference for lynching you.

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Catch up post (finally). I’m sorry, but I didn’t and don’t have much time for mafia. But today I have found a little gap where I can do something.


The first thing catching my attention is mastin’s reaction to furcolow:

I have played with Mastin before, in that game he was a townie. His posts felt more in-depth and helpful. I am getting a scum read on him because of this.

A few things are different, Furc.
1: This isn't a newbie game, and I'm not the IC.
2: I'm not a replacement. When I get to playing later in the game, my play will get a little more familiar. Settling in and all that.
3: I'm in a Hydra with Nacho. That obviously influences my posting style.
4: I just came out of a disastrous game which completely destroyed my confidence in my ability to read others. While both Nacho and I made mistakes and misread the game, I made FAR more than he did. (He had, like, ONE read which turned out wrong which I thought was wrong. Pretty much all his other reads I agreed with. :/ I had several reads I got wrong, and only a few of which he agreed with.)
5: Returning from LA means that I haven't gotten things down, yet. It takes a while to adjust back to Mafia when gone for a little over half a week (when I was still busy--for like a week or two--waiting for the game to begin and not being in any other games).

Just reason 1 would have sufficed. Or reason 3. But 5 reasons for such a simple accusation is simply overdone. It isn’t that I have a problem with the defensiveness per se, but this answer doesn’t feel like a natural response.

Oh, wait a second, Furcolow is scum. Read his last wall, it's a doozy.

So, half a day ago, when you posted AFTER my wall, in a post you said "SOMEONE ISN'T READING THE THREAD", you are admitting to being a hypocrite? Because you posted hours after my wall, half a day before "OMG READ FURCOLOW'S WALL", criticizing lack of reading. You, sir, are the pot calling the kettle black. Learn to read YOURSELF before you criticize people for reading. You imply you're talking about me with the chainsawing comment, which just goes to show that you are scum-skimming.

I’m very sorry to ask this furc, but could you explain what you mean here without all the clichés? Because I’m not impressed by people not reacting on the spot: the time when you find a scummy thing isn’t relevant. Caboose hardly is going to admit he’s a hypocrite so apparently you are proving something that isn’t true and to top it off you say caboose didn’t read your post?

Apparently I stuck my nose in a bee-nest, because the above argument spins off into testosterone fueled namecalling.

Nacho (Calcifer) how can you have a town read on someone who switches points when there was votes on him for his vote on Arco?

This makes me worry a bit about farside. The someone is Twistedspoon, and regardless whether the reasons for calling him town are sound, it is the reaction by farside that bothers me.

Farside reacts to them calling someone town by making a counterpoint: “But he did these scummy things too!”. Without following with a vote or anything. The goal isn’t to lynch, the goal is to stop Nacho from thinking that person is town. This post is closer to seeding doubt in others minds then finding scum.

FoS Farside

Cecily's death does not generate crucial information as to who the scum are, but all three of {Gollum, Zdenek, farside22} DO.

clearly this is not the way to convince anyone. Information comes and goes. I do agree on the reads though (though I don’t know anything about Gollum yet).

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People on the Acro wagon: Ion, Calcifer, zdenek, bub, Gollum, Ctorj

VOTECOUNT 1.7

Cecily (5/11): Twistedspoon, Thor665, Nocmen, Pine, Furcolow
Bub Bidderskins (4/11): evilpacman18, Magister Ludi, Ion67, farside22
Pine (3/11): Bub Bidderskins, Cecily, pappums rat
Twistedspoon (2/11): Caboose, flinter
Ctorj49 (2/11): Acronach, Zombeh-Pug
Acronach (1/11): Gollum
Gollum (1/11): Calcifer
pappums rat (1/11): Zdenek

Not Voting (2): TheJakalope, Ctorj49

taking this votecount, Pine is a clear lurker wagon, so is Ctorj. I don't know about Gollum, but he's clearly lurking.

This means that Bub and Calcifer seem to take the easy road. For bub this kinda fits the picture, but Calcifer has already shown quite a bit of scumhunting. That probably means I was wrong on the Gollum case.

FoS: Bub

Edit: totally should have included the not voting catagory too. Ctorj49 is also on the list with Bub.

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I'm sorry farside, you are completely right. It was bud who's reads about TS changed.

[flinter]

Sorry, again, don't really have the time for a long post. And I'm not really in the mood.

As for Gollum-Zdenek, I think I prefer Zdenek. The core of the way too long case seemed to be that Gollum keeps his vote too long in one (useless) spot, which I agree is a good scumtell. The other points weren't as great, but with that amount of text there have to be some good things there too. As for the Zdenek case, that one seems certain on scum. His manipulation was obvious, and his defence went to a "clever" technicality.

Calcifer, please stop making such enormous laps of text. I really have to resort to skimming if the thread is growing like this, which means that my grasp on the game is becoming worse and worse.

[flinter]

unvote vote Gollum

Sorry Zdenek. Apparently I was wrong about you.

I don't see any other wagon happening today, so this is the only viable wagon now. I'd like to see a claim too.

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I don't get the positive side of lynching a claimed vig. Either we find out by the shots at night that something is wrong, or we have an extra town shot. For that reason I really dislike Pine and Cecily, but mostly pine who is really pushy about it. I would be up for a wagon on either. I could follow Calcifer on the Farside wagon, and if anyone is still up for a lynch on T-spoon (though I think not), I wouldn't mind that either.

for now, lets support a new wagon

unvote vote Farside

. Too many small things that don't seem to fit.

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I agree with some of you that a day shot Vig claim is solid, especially on Day 1 and is no reason top lynch. Off the bat, I will
FOS: evilpacman18, Furcolow, Twistedspoon, Bub Bidderskins, Cecily as to leaving their vote on Gollum.

I'm not convinced on where my vote should go to next. I've leaned towards a Cecily lynch, but that doesn't seem to garnish any support at all.

Ctorj is town in my books for just this post. He says perfectly what I think: It's foolish to lynch a vig, and leaving your vote on him is scummy. I have less problems actually with people actively voting for him and arguing for his lynch (like bub), then people who simply lurk there. So with that in mind, if nobody is seeing farside-scum, how about a twistedspoon lynch?

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I lost part of my previous post, addressing my feelings about farside: I don't think she is town, but this comes from little things. The defense of Zdenek's nocmen vote was odd, and many people saw that. I didn't like the motivation behind farside;s argument with calcifer about their bub townread. It isn't really clear cut, but something seems off with farside.

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unvote vote cecily

L-1. How much time left?

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1 hour and 26 min.

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unless we are lucky. And even if we aren't, we then have a bandwagon to analyse. If we know with certainty that you are town, several people who are on the wagon look less good, while some people lurking to stay off the wagon (hoping for a NL?) aren't very town either. And, on top of that, NL now costs us mislynches later.

[flinter]

vote Gollum

.

Tomorrow I might have a post about yesterday's no-lynch.

[flinter]

Bub Bidderskins (3/11): Magister Ludi, Gollum, farside22
Gollum (2/11): Bub Bidderskins, Cecily
Twistedspoon (2/11): Haylen, Furcolow
Magister Ludi (1/11): evilpacman18
Bunnylover (1/11): Calcifer

Not Voting (2): Ctorj49, Twistedspoon

With 21 alive it takes 11 to lynch.

I cut off the ones voting for Cecily, because I want to look why we got a no-lynch yesterday.

As for the not voters, Ctorj49 seems to be a hardcore lurker. In his last post yesterday (his 6th all game), he posted this:

I agree with some of you that a day shot Vig claim is solid, especially on Day 1 and is no reason top lynch. Off the bat, I will
FOS: evilpacman18, Furcolow, Twistedspoon, Bub Bidderskins, Cecily as to leaving their vote on Gollum.

I'm not convinced on where my vote should go to next. I've leaned towards a Cecily lynch, but that doesn't seem to garnish any support at all.

One might ask why he put Pacman on that list, but most importantly, why wasn’t he online in the next 24 hours to actually vote one the players in his list? I does seem to fit his playstyle though, so I’m not too sure of scummy intentions here.

oh noes
UNVOTE: Gollum

Gosh, thank you, this helps secure a lynch.

And this was TS’s last post in I think the last 12 hours before deadline? Anyway, much scummier then Ctorj49, and this isn’t surprising seen TS’s history.

Calcifer would accept the consequences… well that is really noble of you, but I would have preferred if we just had had lynch. Haylen didn’t believe in a Cecily lynch. Ok. I don’t have any reason to believe she really didn’t want to lynch Cecily. Though it is possible that she uses that to stay off a bandwagon. If Haylen is scum later, Cecily is probably town. The same reasoning goes for Magister Ludi and Farside, though those two aren’t as outspoken about not lynching Cecily as Haylen.

Furcolow’s posting towards the end of the game became more sporadic. Seen that we needed action to get a lynch, this is at the least very antitown, and possibly scummy lurking. His last vote, within the 24 hours was on TS. There was no serious support for that lynch.

Okay, we've got 24 hours. Calc, I don't think you'll be able to get all 41 of your remaining cases in before deadline hits. We need to pick a lynch right

now

. ATM my money's on Gollum. At best he's lying scum. At worst he's a stupid vig who wants to take out one of the most pro-town player slots in the game.

Bub's last post. Bub simply stayed on Gollum for the last part of the day. What bothers me most is that he already tries to show how it could be good to lynch a vig (because gollum apparently wanted to kill one of the most pro-town players?). It is quite some fun to see the last posts in Bub’s iso:

Iso 14:

“I'm interested to hear what Calc has to say about Gollum, because at the moment I don't have any read on him.”

Iso 15:

“vote Gollum”

Iso 17:

“don’t know who is scum with Gollum, will see after the flip"

Iso 18: he found a “scumslip” on Gollum.
Iso 20 was quoted above.

Bub suddenly hard tunneled on Gollum, while having no read on him before iso 14.

It seems I was wrong about Gollum, because Bub is really not looking good here. I haven’t checked Pacman’s breadcrumb, and the way I read about it, I wasn’t too convinced by it. One could find breadcrumbs anywhere that way. I do agree with the wagon though, as Bub is acting quite scummy. TS is a good second. Further I get mostly nulls from this.

Holding off on a vote until I have reread TS.

unvote

[flinter]

I didn't see that coming, but I'm happy with how I wasn't wrong about farside like I thought tonight. As for their buddies, that doesn't change that much. Either they planned the bus and were on early, or they were opportunists on the Bub wagon and after Farsides move had to come back.

Gollum (4/10): farside22, Twistedspoon, Ctorj49, Duplicity
Bub Bidderskins (7/10): Calcifer, Magister Ludi, Gollum, Pine, Thor665, pappums rat, Nocmen

Not Voting (7): Bunnylover, Ion67, Bub Bidderskins, Haylen, Furcolow, flinter, Cecily

With 18 alive it takes 10 to lynch.

Gollum (10/10): farside22, Twistedspoon, Ctorj49, Duplicity, Furcolow, Thor665, pappums rat, Bunnylover, Magister Ludi, Pine
Bub Bidderskins (2/10): Gollum, Nocmen
Bunnylover (1/10): Calcifer

Not Voting (5): Ion67, Bub Bidderskins, Haylen, flinter, Cecily

You decide someone has to pay for evilpacman18's death.

Gollum, Mafia Goon

, has been lynched Day 2.

Between these VC's, farsides claim happened. Between the forlast and farsides claim, only calcifer voted (for bunny), meaning that: Furcolow, Thor665, pappums rat, Bunnylover, Magister Ludi and Pine came on, from which only bunnylover and furcolow didn't come from the Bub wagon. That's hardly conclusive, but in combination with their posts, I worry most about Pine. Pine suspected this bus... how could he? I really didn't see it coming. Magisters hops over but barely seems to pay attention to gollum, he rather questions Thor (who made a very levelheaded impression) and talks about Calcifer.

With Gollum as fakeclaimed vig, I can't see scum not anticipating on his lynch though, so I think Haylen, Ion67 and bub are pretty much cleared, esspecially bub of course. It should have been obvious to bus the guy for townie points, that I can't see people staying off at that moment. Who I on the contrary do suspect, is twistedspoon. It seems the classic bus, to me. In that case he knew gollum was going to go, he would vote him, and expecting him to be lynched. When pacman's breadcrumb was taken into account, he didn't go over, most likely to save the spot early on the wagon, assuming that gollum couldn't be saved.

I'll try to work out Farside's connections later.

[flinter]

If it had been two results for Thor, this wouldn't have been hard. Any mafia powerrole killing (cecily was one of his targets) and doing something else on another player would have gotten those results. I guess scum would be interested in calcifer. But I can't think of a single mafia powerrole which would also target himself. And calcifer is actually ok with this doesn't fit with the mafia theory either. So I don't think thor has to fullclaim, as I don't think there is any reason to believe he isn't town.

Can people explain the Bub wagon without totally skipping yesterday? It feels really lazy to me.

[flinter]

Vote Bud

The end of last yestrerday cements this in my mind. Bub going to get lynched in an attempt from Black mafia, farside22 red mafia watcher then switches lynch off Bud an onto Gollum.

So that's the theory why we are voting Bub again. We would have been right about both players. Ok, decent answer, and the only of the voters who can actually explain why they are back on Bub.

It's so sad to see you go for a really weird Haylen wagon now. Scum wouldn't benefit from such a mistake, but neither would town. Further I mostly agree with what she said. She is obviously aware of what is going on, otherwise it would be really lucky if she had such similar thougths about the last events.

I'm going to place a initial VOTE: Magister Ludi, as I'm not happy with his choice of wagons at the start of this day. I'll reread this when I have some more time.

[flinter]

I’m going to do a small calcifer here, but I’ll try to make it more concise, so please try to stay with me. The players of interest are Magister Ludi and Twistedspoon. Both are flying under most scumdars, while they are playing rather lazily.

I’m going to start with Ludi, who has my vote now. The first thing ludi did in this game was his round of questions. Such questions aren’t scummy per se, but there are things to watch out for. Scum has to settle in the first pages, and if they are called out as scum then already, the game is going to be hard. Skipping the RVS is therefore a viable scumtactic.

His first vote (page 4) on nocmen is a lurkervote, but it isn’t as bad as it sounds. Nocmen indeed was kind of passive. However, in his next post, the scumminess starts. Bub gets under some pressure for the first time and Ludi hops on with some vague reasons. In 210 he is attacking lurkers, including bub. Well you can say a lot about bub, but he didn’t lurk in the first 10 pages. Ludi did though.

After being pushed, at page ten, Ludi finally comes with the results of his questions. And they are not conclusive, as expected, but he manages to get very little information from it. And he just keeps his vote on Bub.

His first serious post (I’m discounting the proposal of a scumteam and asking Bub who he thinks is scum with Gollum) is already beyond the Zdenek wagon, a part of the game Ludi completely skipped. He’s asking thor if thor is up for a MrTrow lynch… but keeps his vote on bub. Then he defends Gollum against bub, since Gollum claimed vig. That seemed pretty townie at that moment, and it could very well be. However, knowing that Gollum was actually the vig, we know at least bub isn’t scum with him.

Then, and I don’t get this shift by Ludi, he chooses to attack thor. I haven’t thought him as scum ever, but close to deadline, ludi tried this. He kept his vote on Bub, but it isn’t hard to see how this is an opportunistic scum attempt to get a townie out.

I’m not surprised at all to see that Ludi lurked through the last 24 hours… with his vote still on Bub.

Theory intermezzo at the end of day 1

One common difference in voting behaviour between scum and town (as long as scum aren’t aware of this), is the frequency of voting. While most town aren’t the tunneling kind at the start, uncertain as they are about their reads, scum is having trouble to find the save ways to place a vote. By being consistent about their suspects, they hope to avoid suspicion based on contradictions. For this reason, it’s a way to find scum by the way they treat their suspects. They act like they should never be wrong, and can never be wrong.

Day 2

With Gollum clearly being suspect after seeing the kills, Ludi posts after a breadcrumb from pacman is found, to vote Bub again. This is a continuation of the previous day, when Ludi was convinced Gollum was the vig, while others (thor/Bub) doubted this.

We see one of the biggest posts Ludi has made till then in post 674, where he brings mod meta to defend Gollums vig claim. After Farsides claim, Ludi votes Gollum.

Day 3

Why not vote bub again? If you believe Farside was his buddy, everything makes sense. When haylen makes her mistake (Skimming isn’t very handy, but her other reads are fine, so I’m not too bothered about her), Ludi finally finds a new target.

Conclusion

I believe magister ludi is quite the obvious scum. He has been sitting in the back from the start and his tunneling on bud has been a defensive rather then offensive act. This can easily be seen in the limited aggressivity Ludi showed while being on the bub wagon. A townie who is tunneling would want to convince everyone of his truth.

Sorry for the long post about Ludi, but don’t worry, it is only 700 words.

[flinter]

Sorry, I won't have the time to do this for twistedspoon too now. And you probably wouldn't have either.

[flinter]

@Everyone and their mothers - seriously, nobody even has the grapefruits to so much as comment on my Pine vote? The hell?

Sorry thor, but I don't get your vote. You vote because of a "mirror" tell, which I don't understand.

Just tell me if this is your reasoning: farside is a mafia watcher. Pine is a tracker. These roles are almost the same, and seen that there were two hiders, these two must both be scum.

If so, I won't be voting Pine.


I will continue voting ludi though. Right after I made a case on him, and Bub picks up on it, Ludi comes with a large analysing post without real deduction, where he also hints on not voting Bub anymore (a key point in the case against him). Scum won't get anymore obvious then this.

[flinter]

Ludi's post was simply a fluff wall. Look at Farside. Gollum didn't push on him at all, but actually protected him (according to the table). Since Gollum would know that Farside was not part of his side, he would theoretically want to push on him and not protect him. Just like the questions Ludi asked at the beginning of the game, it's a lot of talk without any actual results.

I totally agree Bub. Magister Ludi noticed he was suspected and immediately we get a lot of fluff coming from him. Ludi is quite the obvious scum, and I think the wagon on him is too small.

Guy's, I know you all love Haylen, but could you for a moment get your eyes of her and vote Ludi?

thank you!

[flinter]

I'm sorry guys, but the coming week looks like a busy one. I'll try to make a few decent posts, but I promise nothing.

vote: pine

if pine is scum I want to move after nocmen next
I am voting pine for his obvious OMGUS

This snippet is making me suspect Furc. I don't get the pine case, he seems mostly too enthousiastic to me, but regardless of that on this point OMGUS is a very weird reason to vote with. People avoid OMGUS like the plague. That, and how furc actually comments more on where he wants to go next then his vote. This is a classic bandwagon vote.

[flinter]

Just an observation: On this moment the ludi wagon is quite supported by many, but there are only two people voting it. Depending on if ludi flips, and what he flips, this might be a good thing to analyse tomorrow.

@Furc

, the italics are my reasons.

vote: pine

if pine is scum I want to move after nocmen next
I am voting pine for his obvious OMGUS

This snippet is making me suspect Furc.

I don't get the pine case

, he seems mostly too enthousiastic to me, but regardless of that on this point

OMGUS is a very weird reason to vote with. People avoid OMGUS like the plague. That, and how furc actually comments more on where he wants to go next then his vote. This is a classic bandwagon vote.

Quite simply: there is a wagon for different reasons, and you jump on it on a very odd and weak basis, after which you neglect the wagon and start looking into the future.

But first:
We have the explanation for Thor's triple targetting dilemma. He's a neighborizer, with the ability to make neighbors whoever the hell he wants.

Night 1 he neighborized Ctorj and pappums because he defected on his night deadline.

Night 2 he neighborized us, himself, and Cecily.
Both Mastin and I find him a good choice for scum at this point, for various reasons. He is NOT black scum because of interactions with Gollum + Pine.
This information obviously makes Ctorj black scum since Redscum Thor would not out him in that way.

Like, really? The green part. Thor has been quite active throughout the game, he doesn’t seem to be the player to forget his night action. Do you

know

this, or were you told by Thor?

As for Ctorj, I’m not quite sure how he fits in all this. Where did Thor out him?

But I do agree with you. Thor is very insistent on the Pine lynch, and doing that just based on Pine's claim is odd, esspecially when he started based on setup speculation. Moreover, in his later posts, he doesn't say anymore that Pine is the black mirror to Farside, so I'm wondering what his basis actually is.

[flinter]

No, I am reading. You have never expressely stated which color you think pine is, or why this make sense.

Hello?
::knocks on Ludi's head and hears a dull thumping sound::
Oh...okay, I'll leave a message.

I called Pine scum for a "mirror tell" and consequently I'm suggesting that the scum teams are mirrored just as town is. Now, if the one flipped scum tracking role is red than probably...

I have never indicated what scum team I think pine is.

Yeah.

Then make me understand this, Thor. I don't get how you can tell Ludi that you don't know what color Pine should be, but that you do use a mirror-argument.

I do second the request for you reading the thread Haylen. It's quite obvious that you didn't know exactly what was going on, and that way it's very hard to find scum.

[flinter]

Sorry Thor. It does make sense if that was sarcastic. But were those caps really necessary?

[flinter]

Magister Ludi case, available for support

As we are nearing deadline again, I totally wouldn't mind a TS lynch. But, first things first:

vote Thor

If you reread Thor, his first day he is quite busy trying to be town. He is actively calling all kinds of people scum and acts very aggressively to their posts, asking them for clarification etc. In itself, this isn't scummy, though if you reread it, it is unnatural. But then we get day 2, and Thor tunnels hardcore on Pine... based on setup speculation? That isn't close to a normal townie anymore.

Add to this the points Calcifer mentioned too, and you understand that something in Thor's game is off. And it is quite obviously so.

[flinter]

I'm still not a fan of either of these leading two wagons, if the case behind Thor really does revolve around him not being a mirror as he claims due to him neighborizing two rather than three players. The best way to proceed is to lynch elsewhere and force him to neighborize three players tonight - Not doing so would confirm him.

Considering the deadline is coming up extremely soon we need to start moving towards an actual lynch. The only person with votes at all that I slightly agree on:

Unvote, Vote: Ctorj49

Setup speculation is always iffy. Just check Thor's behaviour day two, which is already suspicious, but if compared with his behaviour day one, is scummy.

However, may I also get your attention for the following:

this game melts my mind

I don't understand mirrors or whatever thor's saying...

but I do now ctorj doesn't deserve to live until the endgame

TS won't get any more obvious. The first sentence is a standard tell which shows he is out of wagons he can savely move on to. The second continious this, but adds that he doesn't follow the game well. Then, he decides he'll stay on his save (2 vote) wagon on a lurker. But seen that sentence, he isn't going for the lynch. He just decides to set ctorj up for later.

I'm staying on Thor for now, because he's my 3rd pick at the moment. I'll be available for a Magister Ludi or Twistedspoon wagon, should they form.

[flinter]

Pine, that wasn't necessary. I would prefer that you kept your language reasonable.

[flinter]

I'm rather confused by what happened on the thor wagon. Is it that people were suddenly scared of the deadline and decided to vote for the biggest wagon, or what? I would expect scum to be reluctant to bus him close to deadline, and I would think town would be reluctant to throw away their read on Thor. In simpler words, this wagon went to fast to keep me confortable. One would expect a Thor-lynch to be a struggle, even if Calcifer decided to lynch him.

I'm going to support Duplicity's attempt on a TS lynch:

unvote vote TwistedSpoon

.

[flinter]

Not liking Duplicity's push on Twisted at all. It seems forced out of pressure and what not. He gave in too fast to Thor's accusations of lurking, plus I have to be concerned of any attempt for a new wagon this late in the day, not wanting to repeat D1 again.

Flinter: Have you read my posts? I think some of my last posts helped explain my transition into thinking Thor was town into scum.

What I really don't like, is that all of a sudden you two (Flinter/Duplicity) are thinking Thor is town, WHEN YOU HAD YOUR VOTE ON HIM UNTIL JUST NOW.

Yes, I read them. I didn't like your switch that much, the setup speculation is iffy at best and basing a vote on a contradiction about the scumteams is weak. That's a decent way to bandwagon someone as scum. Meaning that I don't trust you at all.

I also don't know where you get it from that I'm suddenly thinking Thor is town. Because of a lack of wagonning on my top scum picks (TS and ML), the deadline basically forces me to third choice.

I really dislike how you are trying to force people into lynching Thor, while you have never argued in favor of it that aggressively.

[flinter]

I'll sheep you calcifer! Although it's mostly because people aren't sheeping me. It seems the game is just waiting for Tasky to announce that we have only 24 hours remaining to rush to a lynch.

vote Thor

[flinter]

sorry guys, I'm kinda low on time. I see a lot of posts by Pine, Duplicity and Thor, but I didn't get what they were about.

Hello hohum! Thank you for replacing into this large game.

[flinter]

Thanks for modding Tasky. The game was a lot of fun, although I got shot. Thank you for winning the game for us, Pine and Hohum, when I was gone!