130.Mirror Mafia - Game Over

[Pine]

Fuck it. I've made my case, I'm not arguing with you any more.

If anyone else has any questions, I'll respond to them. Not to Thorscum.

[Tasky]

VOTECOUNT 3.8

Thor665 (5/8): Pine, Magister Ludi, flinter, Bub Bidderskins, Calcifer
Pine (4/8): Thor665, Furcolow, Bunnylover, Ctorj49
Duplicity (1/8): Haylen
Furcolow (1/8): Nocmen
Bunnylover (1/8): Duplicity
Ctorj49 (1/8): Twistedspoon

Not Voting (1): Ion67

With 14 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Base-Time is over. Deadline might now hit anytime. I will tell you 24 hours in advance.

[Duplicity]

I'm still not a fan of either of these leading two wagons, if the case behind Thor really does revolve around him not being a mirror as he claims due to him neighborizing two rather than three players. The best way to proceed is to lynch elsewhere and force him to neighborize three players tonight - Not doing so would confirm him.

Considering the deadline is coming up extremely soon we need to start moving towards an actual lynch. The only person with votes at all that I slightly agree on:

Unvote, Vote: Ctorj49

[Twistedspoon]

this game melts my mind

I don't understand mirrors or whatever thor's saying...

but I do now ctorj doesn't deserve to live until the endgame

[flinter]

I'm still not a fan of either of these leading two wagons, if the case behind Thor really does revolve around him not being a mirror as he claims due to him neighborizing two rather than three players. The best way to proceed is to lynch elsewhere and force him to neighborize three players tonight - Not doing so would confirm him.

Considering the deadline is coming up extremely soon we need to start moving towards an actual lynch. The only person with votes at all that I slightly agree on:

Unvote, Vote: Ctorj49

Setup speculation is always iffy. Just check Thor's behaviour day two, which is already suspicious, but if compared with his behaviour day one, is scummy.

However, may I also get your attention for the following:

this game melts my mind

I don't understand mirrors or whatever thor's saying...

but I do now ctorj doesn't deserve to live until the endgame

TS won't get any more obvious. The first sentence is a standard tell which shows he is out of wagons he can savely move on to. The second continious this, but adds that he doesn't follow the game well. Then, he decides he'll stay on his save (2 vote) wagon on a lurker. But seen that sentence, he isn't going for the lynch. He just decides to set ctorj up for later.

I'm staying on Thor for now, because he's my 3rd pick at the moment. I'll be available for a Magister Ludi or Twistedspoon wagon, should they form.

[Haylen]

I'd like to off Duplicity today still. However, I could be persuaded to change to Pine (because I like the arguments for lynching him) and Ctorj (because he's made less posts in a game than I have, and that generally says something.)

Pine: You you said to Thor "Doesnt matter, I tracked you killing Cecily"? How do you know that was a kill.

[Pine]

READ THE FUCKING THREAD, HAYLEN.

[flinter]

Pine, that wasn't necessary. I would prefer that you kept your language reasonable.

[Pine]

Apologies for the outburst.

My intentions and meaning are VERY clear and have been repeatedly been stated. Why I must keep repeating myself is absolutely beyond me.

In short, Haylen, Thor implied early on that his ability created mirrors between the players targeted. It is Calcifer's theory that his claim of being able to Neighborize three people is false, based on this concept. Seeing as the mirror between Thor and Calcifer was successfully created, this leaves the third person Thor targeted, Cecily, as a question mark. The conclusion I drew from this is that Thor set up a Neighbor/mirror between himself and Calc, and killed Cecily.

Note that this theory of Calcifer's blends seamlessly into my own allegations, which center around Thor's panicked refusal to admit anything when confronted with a tracking result that showed him visiting one of the people killed in the night. Later, he confessed to being a Neighborizer, which was corroborated by confirmed Town. However, if he was indeed a Town-aligned Neighborizer, and had attempted a three-way Neighborization as claimed, his role is clearly no threat to scum and would not lead to him receiving special attention if revealed. The only explanation I can find for his early obfuscation and stonewalling is that he panicked, didn't have a safe fakeclaim, and only later came up with the idea of claiming to have attempted a Neighborization with Cecily.

Thor is a Mafia Neighborizer. I have no idea what color he is.

[Twistedspoon]

TS won't get any more obvious. The first sentence is a standard tell which shows he is out of wagons he can savely move on to.

I don't understand flinter. we didn't discuss this in the scum QT together.
or is this that bussing thing you were telling me about?

[Tasky]

READ THE FUCKING THREAD, HAYLEN.

keep your language at an appropriate level please.

[Thor665]

@flinter - how is my play Day 2 different than Day 1?

People voting Ctorj while supporting me triple targeting for confirmation really lends credence to the reading problems here. I wish to heck I was a part of one of the scumteam in this game.

[Duplicity]

People voting Ctorj while supporting me triple targeting for confirmation really lends credence to the reading problems here.

An explanation would be appreciated. Are you unable to 'neighbourize' three players without Ctorj being one of them?

[Pine]

He's saying that anyone who has expressed support for the plan to confirm a minor aspect of his role (with the slight chance of catching him in a lie) while supporting his lynch today is contradicting themself. They aren't mutually exclusive, no matter how much he'd like them to be. There's a very good chance that we won't arrive at an agreement, with half of the thread divided over Thor and I and the other half lurking like it's their job (Thor's scumbuddies are probably in the lurkers...hmm, note to self to analyze later).

It's just a nervous flail to convince people to unvote, based on faulty logic.

[Thor665]

Actually, it's just because Ctorj was one of the planned targets and is a good one because he's scummy and a lurker (y'know, like my scumbuddies)

Tell you what, if either Ion or Ctorj is lynched, I'll neighbor Pine. That should be good for a laugh.

[Furcolow]

Why is twistedspoon alive?

[Thor665]

Because we haven't lynched him, he hasn't been NKed, and you haven't made the wagon go anywhere.

[Magister Ludi]

Thor wagon is good.

I'm interested to see where the votes of Haylen Nocmen and Ion end up.

[Duplicity]

I'm becoming increasingly more comfortable with a Twisted lynch today as well.

@Calcifer,

are you willing to make a compromise lynch of either Ctorj or Twisted? Force Thor to neighborize three people tonight, if he doesn't do so I'll join you lynching him tommorow.

[Pine]

Make the case on Ctorj/Twisted or link to it please?

[Duplicity]

Make the case on Ctorj/Twisted or link to it please?

I'll attempt to do so on the way to uni, should have them up in a few hours.

[Nocmen]

That was embarassing that I wasn't able to get to this at all during my week of traveling.

Starting on page 37, where I left off from my last read:

I don't agree with Ludi's case on Haylen, I think I said this before? While I think Haylen's misrep/disregard for some of the posts is scummy, I don't full think Magister is giving an honest, scum hunting case on her.

Twisted - While you call out Ctorj for not posting anything, you still aren't really contributing your opinions on the wagons and activites here.

Alright, let's get this bitch in gear.

SCUMTEAMS ARE:

(Black)
Pine
Ctorj

(Red)
Thor
Bub

(Margin of error)
TS
Bunnylover

Mastin and I will be going through town/scum reads, starting with reasoning for town and ending with reasoning for scum, hopefully before base time is over.

I agree with a lot here, except I'd put Furc as a replacement for Thor. Because I think your case on Thor requires a lot more to occur based on dependencies of others being scum. If say, his targets end up being scum or what not, then I'd seriously consider Thorscum. But for now, it just doesn't seem plausible.

Though this is something to note:

No, I am reading. You have never expressely stated which color you think pine is, or why this make sense.

Its not even team association. At minimum, there are four potential scum left in this game, and before being promted about it this page you had only ever identified one, Pine, and not even his color of scum, which you slipped in on post #925. You haven't been making an active effort to really sort out who is town or scum.

The point about my comment was that I called out Haylen for being scum, which would in your mind put her on a different team than me. Since you think I am black scum apparently, that would make her red scum, and buddies with twistedspoon who you just identified as red, or did you forget that you posted that?

This is during the asking Thor if he called Pine as a specific color of scum. He said the tracker is more likely to be Red, but yet Thor thinks Ludi is a buddy with Pine, in black? One of you two, Ludi and Thor, is lying off your ass.

Duplicity:

Why do you see Pine as obv scum in 938?

Answered in 943.

I have to facepalm at Haylen , more so than Thor did during the color-debate the page previously.

And Pine is Black now? I'm starting to lose credibility from Thor.

Once again, all I had to do was look at what color farside was. Since farside was red, then Thor obviously had Pine as black the whole time. I feel a bit better now about Thor. I'm still not sure how plausible a triple-targetting town role is though.

Ludi seems to go after Haylen now. Seems like a weak attack. And a lot rubs me the wrong way with his 1025.


Something else of note I saw while looking at Thor's ISO:

@Nocmen - With the current activity levels I started to think I must be playing a 12 man game and hence expected a 3 man scumteam. (and to clarify - No.)

@Ion - welcome to Vigbait is you territory, enjoy the weather, forecasts call for sporadic lead showers. Ask Cecily where the best cover is, I'm sure she visits every game. Oh, and your vote is lolfail right now, you might want to fix that.

@Calcifer - cute enough analysis of Cecily - why did you ignore my reason for voting her considering how much you defend her initial play I personally think my reason for voting her should appear significantly stronger in your eyes.

This just seems a bit too convenient in hind-sight, when we know there are 2 teams, likely with 3 on each.

I'm neutral with the Pine wagon. Not for, not against right now. But anything I've said about Thor being town, these last 3-4 pages have made me cancel them all out.

It also seems best if Thor is scum for the triple tracking result. I'm thinking right now that there are 3 power roles in red scum, and 4 black scum, with slightly less power roles.

What I dislike though - how much the Bud wagon has been under the radar, when people were so keen on it before. And with that mentioned, Magister's votes - who was so concerned with Bud previously, has pretty much all but ignored Bud.

Bud is black scum, Thor is red scum. I'm okay with lynching either today.

Unvote, Vote: Thor

[Duplicity]

Alright, read through their ISO's on the bus on the way to uni and am more confident in both of their lynches however Twisted/Ctorj aren't scum together, they're on opposing scum-teams.

Ctorj49

- In ISO #2, he states that people can percieve almost anything as scum-tells as it's highly subjective thus the only way to judge people is by judging the manner that people convince others to join them. He then proceeds to state that he's not likely to type 'long' posts while slipping in the noob-card. He then repeats the noob-card in ISO #3 while stating that he finds listing tables ie. What Ludi did suspicious without actually mentioning Ludis name nor voting him.

- ISO #6 is his first legitimate FoS of the game, and it's just FoS'ing people for maintaining their votes on Gollum without specifcly stating which he belives are mafia. He then proceeds to lurk throughout the next few days.

- In ISO #12 he states he believes 'something is off' in relation to Pine but doesn't show any effort whatsoever to onvince others of it or research it himself which contradicts ISO #2 where he shows understanding that convining others of your case is a critical part of the game.

Summary:

- Lurking throughout the game while posting minimal content
- Contradicting himself by stating that suspects need to be pushed while not pushing any himself
- Avoidance of taking any stances by not naming the people he actually suspects
- Attempting to play the noob-card early in the game.

Twistedspoon

- In ISO #10 he states willingness to accept Thors vote on him while moving on to 'scumhunt' which he doesn't attempt to do at all, instead ISO #11 and ISO #12 are just him continuing his uneeded defence, on top of that he states he has a town/null read on Arco. If his read on Acro his even partially null there's no reason for him to state it, it reads as an attempt to live up to his 'scumhunting' promise while not actually reaching any conclusion.

- In ISO #14 he states he's going to re-read Nocmen soon, however never states anything about what he came across or decided upon it, he then proceeds to lurk until prodded come back and post ISO #25 where he asks TheJaka for reads without stating any himself, he does so again in ISO #26.

- In ISO #30 he votes Zdenek and states "will elaborate shortly, but this is the best lynch" and yet again never does. In ISO #33 he states the vig kills are horrible while voting the vig claim, meaning if he believed Gollum was scum he believed there was likely no vig, his entire post here is fluff. He then progresses to vote Ctorj in ISO #49 for not posting any content something that Twisted himself hasn't done.

Summary:

- States that he's going to 'scumhunt' while constantly delaying doing so.
- Attempting to use lurker-prodding as his form of contribution to the game
- Avoidance of stating any reads on active players, he's found himself content to

A)

Vote those who aren't active enough to defend themselves properly Defend themselves

B)

Refrain from stating any reasoning apart from "Lack of posting" behind his votes

C)

Tip-Toe around the Thor/Pine cases.


Thinking about it though, there's likely not enough time to move votes around given the deadline and at this point no-lynch is worst-case. I really should have focused on this game and starting re-reading a few days ago.

@Calcifer, I'm willing to compromise with a Thor lynch if you promise to lynch both of these two if I die.

Unvote, Vote: Thor

[Pine]

^Thor at L-1

[Thor665]

This does not shock me much. Both scum teams are frothing for this one - my personal call is still everyone needs to lynch Pine. Second off is honestly Duplicity. He had an unusual arc to this where he was defending me somewhat and then was suddenly voting me - his desire to vote me showed up after I had clarified how I could confirm myself *and* add risk to Ctorj and Ion as kill targets. $5 gets you odds that he's scum with one of them.