Star Wars Quote Mafia- Game over

[Quailman]

And today Thoth has the double vote.

A Mafia spy does not as a rule know who the mafia are. He gets to investigate people, and if he is recruited/discovered by the mafia, gets to join them and share his investigations. The fact that he switched and gave his vote to Thoth last night is very telling. It is clear that Raj didn't know for sure about Ibaesha or he wouldn't have changed. He must have found out something about Thoth.

[Shamrock]

I've never been in a game with a spy, so I could be wrong, but I looked at the wiki entry for Traitor (which is the same role) and it looks like the spy knows who the mafia is but the mafia don't know who the spy is.

[TSAGod]

The question here is whether or not raj knew who was mafia.

I'd be inclined to think yes, but that's pure speculation.

[Thoth]

I think it's clear that the mafia didn't know who raj was as otherwise he would still be alive (unless some other source killed him and mafia didn't kill, but that seems really unlikely).

I've not seen a mafia spy that knew who the mafia was at the start of the game, but they sometimes have an investigation ability. Never seen an investigation ability coupled with another ability though. That would seem a little strong to me.

[TSAGod]

I think it's clear that the mafia didn't know who raj was as otherwise he would still be alive (unless some other source killed him and mafia didn't kill, but that seems really unlikely).

The only reason for the other killer is that night three had two kills, but a look at the methods makes this theory suck. Darn.

[Norinel]

Activity check: Prodding RangerOfTheNorth, PeaceBringer. Next check Monday.

Vote Count:

TSAGod- 2 (

Thoth

)
ibaesha- 1 (TSAGod)
Thoth- 1 (Quailman)

Not voting (

3

5): RangerOfTheNorth, PeaceBringer, ibaesha, Shamrock, Coron

5 to lynch.

[PeaceBringer]

investigated quailman, innocent.

Go back to

vote TSAGod

[TSAGod]

Code: Select all

PEACEBRINGER'S INVESTIGATIONS
Night 1 - Shamrock - Innocent*
Night 2 - Thoth    - Innocent
Night 3 - ibaesha  - Innocent
Night 4 - Coron    - Innocent
Night 6 - Quailman - Innocent

*Also confirmed innocent by Zu_faul, Night 2.

I think we have a naive cop. If we still want to go for the non-investigated, (only me and RotN), that's fine, but is there a reason why you'd be choosing me over than RotN?

[ibaesha]

I'm not too trusting of Shamrock here, despite the cop results. He's pretty much floated under the radar the entire game. Also, other than his 'obvious reasons' for being suspicous of me, he hasn't brought forward many thoughts on who is scum.

Example:

Well, this is going nowhere. What, indeed, is the reasoning for voting ranger? If there isn't any, maybe I'll just vote TSA, there isn't really much else to do at this point...

I just find that sort of thing scummy.

vote: Shamrock.

I'm still suspicious of Ranger, but less so than yesterday.

As for the double votes: Both Quailman and Thoth bring up good points. I am not too sure that Thoth having a double vote today means he's scum, however. My getting them continuously wasn't due to any gameties I had with Raj. It's just because he lurves me.

[Quailman]

lol! I read that twice trying to figure out what gay-meh-tees are.

As for Thoth's comment regarding the Mafia Spy, in my experience they

always

have investigations - otherwise they wouldn't be called spies, they'd just be traitors. While it is unusual to have that coupled with a vote-doubling ability, think about it - if it is found out that he is a spy who could double votes and he just switched his beneficiary, it looks bad for that person. Is that a very strong ability? It could almost be termed a liability. If Thoth is scum, of course he would want to downplay that aspect.

[RangeroftheNorth]

It is highly possible that the town is facing a serious crisis right now. It is possible that, out of our eight players, four are cultists. This assumes that Fritzler was able to recruit one cultist a night. Here is the situation as I see it:

I think it is most likely that we have 2 mafia left. Four mafia seems over powered, especially considering Raj's role. 2, even with raj, seems a bit weak. Therefore, I think it is extremely likely that there are only two mafia remaining.

This gives us three potentially dangerous scenarios:
1. Four Cultists, 2 Mafia, 2 Town
2. Three cultists, 2 Mafia, 2 Town
3. 2 cultists, 2 mafia, 2 town

1. In this scenario, Thoth's alignment is highly important. If Thoth is a cult member, we cannot lynch a cult member today. However, if he is not, the town's only chance of winning the game, and the mafia's best chance, lies in killing a cult member.

2. This scenario gets tricky. If Thoth is a mafia member, this will give us three groups of equal voting strength. In this, the town's best option would be to lynch a mafia member. The mafia would, hopefully, kill a cult member, and the town would retain a degree of control over the outcome of the game.

3. In this scenario, lynching a mafia member would definately be superior to lynching a cultist. The cultists could be dealt with after the mafia was eleminated, and attempting to deal with the cultists first would make a mafia win likely.

It is also possible that there is only one cultist remaining. I'm not going to address this, as it doesn't present a very large threat to the town, and I don't think it's very likely. Right now, what we do depends on which scenario everyone thinks is most likely.

[Quailman]

This gives us three potentially dangerous scenarios:
1. Four Cultists, 2 Mafia, 2 Town
2. Three cultists, 2 Mafia, 2 Town
3. 2 cultists, 2 mafia, 2 town

So there are either 8, 7 or 6 people remaining? I presume the difference lies in the townie category. I'm hopeful that there are no more than 2 cultists remaining. I'd guess that Fritzler couldn't recruit mafia, or that his recruiting effort had a % success rate, or that it only worked on even nubered nights. I'm sticking with Thoth.

[Norinel]

As I posted in V/LA, I'll be gone for the weekend, back Sunday. Play nice.

[Shamrock]

Ibaesha: That post was primarily because the game didn't seem to be going anywhere at the time. I never did actually vote for TSA.


In RotN's scenario 1, it would seem we're basically screwed if Thoth is a cult member. If he's mafia or town, it'll take a unanimous majority of the mafia and the town to lynch a cultist.

This scenario seems very likely though, since we have no reason ATM to believe that Fritzler was blocked at any point, unless someone has more information on the subject.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I'm not sure that scenario one is most likely. It is quite possible that Fritzler had a limited number of recruitments, or that he could only recruit every other night. Otherwise, the possibility of having the town in this situation seems quite probable. To bad we already lynched armlx, eh?

[Norinel]

Activity check: Prodding Thoth and Coron. Strongly considering a deadline. Next check Thursday.

Vote Count:

TSAGod- 3 (

Thoth

, PeaceBringer)
ibaesha- 1 (TSAGod)
Thoth- 1 (Quailman)
Shamrock- 1 (ibaesha)

Not voting (3!): RangerOfTheNorth, Shamrock, Coron

5 to lynch.

[Thoth]

I think it's very unlikely that Fritzler was able to recruit every night. Otherwise his role would be extremely overpowered.

[Coron]

for instance: may have tried to recruit mafia, that tends not to work.

But

cult fos: people who are saying that small cult is likely

, that's what you want me to think. Also full cults are reasonably common.

[RangeroftheNorth]

So if we are assuming that there are less that four cultists, it makes sense ot lynch a mafia member today.

Vote: Thoth

It's nothing that I can put my finger on, but my scumdar is going crazy about him. He doesn't seem like a cult member, and I really suspect that he is mafia.

[TSAGod]

Well...I don't think the mafia has more than a quarter of the people left.

As for the cult, I'd doubt that they can recruit mafia. And the cults have to have the entire town (?), so even if there are two strong groups, they cancel each other out for now.

I'm keeping my eye on this for further developments.

[Coron]

So if we are assuming that there are less that four cultists, it makes sense ot lynch a mafia member today.

ass/u/me

anyway
3 town 2 mafia 3 cult
assuming: lynch mafia
3 town 1 mafia 3 cult going into night
either
2 town 1 mafia 3 cult 50%
or
3 town 1 mafia 2 cult 50%
2 town 1 mafia 3 cult going into day in which case NL
2-1-2 if mafia hit right 60%*50%=30%
else lose 40%*50%=20% lose
2-1-2 if mafia hit right
nl to stay out of 3 person 3 team endgame.
mafia hit town= lose 50%*30%=15% lose (running total 35%)
mafia hit cult 2-1-1 15%
assume: lynch mafia
2 town 1 cult
assume correct lynch: 15% win
3 town 1 mafia 2 cult 50%
lynch mafia lynch cultist lynch cultist
ASSUMING ALL CORRECT LYNCHES AND RANDOM MAFIA KILLS THIS PLAN GIVES A 65% WIN RATE

someone else do some other options for me

[TSAGod]

So if we are assuming that there are less that four cultists, it makes sense ot lynch a mafia member today.

ass/u/me

anyway
3 town 2 mafia 3 cult
assuming: lynch mafia
3 town 1 mafia 3 cult going into night
either
2 town 1 mafia 3 cult 50%
or
3 town 1 mafia 2 cult 50%
2 town 1 mafia 3 cult going into day in which case NL
2-1-2 if mafia hit right 60%*50%=30%
else lose 40%*50%=20% lose
2-1-2 if mafia hit right
nl to stay out of 3 person 3 team endgame.
mafia hit town= lose 50%*30%=15% lose (running total 35%)
mafia hit cult 2-1-1 15%
assume: lynch mafia
2 town 1 cult
assume correct lynch: 15% win
3 town 1 mafia 2 cult 50%
lynch mafia lynch cultist lynch cultist
ASSUMING ALL CORRECT LYNCHES AND RANDOM MAFIA KILLS THIS PLAN GIVES A 65% WIN RATE

someone else do some other options for me

Huh?

[Quailman]

Why won't you guys lynch Thoth already? No matter which scenario you buy into, we need to lynch him today. The mafia spy as much as told us he's scum.

[PeaceBringer]

Why won't you guys lynch Thoth already? No matter which scenario you buy into, we need to lynch him today. The mafia spy as much as told us he's scum.

sorry I missed that, please tell me where that is-

[Quailman]

... when the mafia spy/vote doubler gave Thoth two votes today, when he had been giving them to Ibaesha. He clearly found something out and not knowing he'd be slain, decided to help Thoth.