Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[Valern]

Woah woah woah. That's L-1 already, isn't it?

Eh. Announcing intent to hammer. Claim, Crazy.

(As much as I'd like to believe that stastically Crazy shouldn't be scum in games I'm in twice in a row, all the other hard data points to Crazy!scum.)

Excerpts from my overnight note-taking:

Probably at least one scum in the people who abandoned the

Peabody

wagon to vote

Trendall

, regardless of

Peabody

's alignment (bussing, or hopping town-wagons, either way):

{CrazyPianist, RotN, Erratus Apathos}

People who weren't on

inhim

wagon (

STRONG

emphasis on those not voting at all)

{crazypianist1116 (note: was voting Quilford at the end of D2),

ICEninja, DeathRowKitty, inHimshallibe

}

People who were on the

Trendall

wagon but off the

inhim

wagon (STRONG scum emphasis):

{crazypianist1116, ICEninja}

"Life List

inHim

ICE
EA
DRK

DarthYoshi
Valern

"

iso 9 - one of ICE, EA, DRK is probably a scumbuddy. Probably DRK, out of those.

"

Pine

, Peabody,

Trendall

- overtly scummy behavior, from poor reasoning, to lapses in logic/explanation, to suspicious voting behavior
Lucresia, Ranger, crazypianist - you aren't impressing much upon me, so into death stew you go. I really can't remember much of any impact that these players have had on this game."

iso 9 - if both scumbuddies are on the deathlist, there's probably one in each of these groups (+points to Peabody, +points to Quilford, Ranger, Crazy). NOTE: This is the first time

inhim

even mentions crazy. His first "real" post does mention Romanus' vote on

Pine

was bad though. He flips from having quoted and commented on Lucresia's posts several times to saying she didn't make an impression on him. ???

"I'd be floored if there were more than one scum in that 6 [on his town list]. I was willing to lynch ANYONE on the death list, get rid of the chaff. It wasn't so much listing scum as much as it was listing who wasn't town."

iso 16 -- Total and complete WIFOM here, but definitely worth keeping in mind. Was he telling the truth about only one scum being on the town list (him), or was he cheekily admitting that there were NO scum in the death list? If I go with my reads, probably more likely the former.

Crazy's vote on Quilford-- really bad in hindsight. That plus defense of

inhim

means Crazy's probably scum... again. Sadface. And then on top of that there was my crazy theory that Crazy changed his stance on me because someone in daytalk told him to... actually has more merit now despite the mod not answering me one way or the other about whether they have it.

[Peabody]

This leaves crazy at L-1.

[Fenhl]

Vote Count 3.1

crazypianist1116	3	RangeroftheNorth	Peabody	Quilford

Spoiler: more info

Not voting: crazypianist1116, ICEninja, Valern, DeathRowKitty
With 7 living players, a majority consists of 4 votes.
The current deadline is Apr 25 10:14.

[ICEninja]

Funny, I was actually thinking towards the end of day 2 about derailing the inHim wagon for a crazy wagon, but this is going

way

too fast. The connection is strong, though, and adds to my reasons for being suspicious of crazy yesterday, and I'm willing to see crazy lynched. I'm not, however, willing to see him lynched before I really have an opportunity to look at all the players.

The week prior to Easter is always one of the busiest of the year for me, and I've been struggling to keep up my normal level of content in this game as it is, so I would take it as a personal favor if we didn't let this game drop in to night before Friday or so.

I will, however, have some time set aside tomorrow to follow up on the posting I've promised.

[Valern]

So not one person had anything to say for the entire last 29 hours. Least of all, Crazypianist.

*twiddles thumbs*

[RangeroftheNorth]

Well I see I'm lynch candidate #1 for today.
All I can say regarding my actions yesterday is that I didn't feel that inhim and the rest of his slot's day 1 actions constituted a lynch. He then proceeded to be useless day 2 and thus I felt he should have been lynched for that.

@RotN: If you thought my pointing fingers at other people was scummy, point out where my reasons were flawed. I'm not going to let other people's scuminness slide under the carpet just because one person is prime for a lynch.

If you felt that he should have been lynched, why didn't you ever vote for him. Why did you attempt to refocus discussion as soon as a possible alternative lynch appeared? I still think that you were doing everything you could to avoid lynching inHim, while trying to look like you weren't trying not to lynch him. As for your reasoning:

Uh what? AMP was the only one discussing theory and not scumhunting. If it's so likely to discuss only theory at that stage, why was he the only one doing it?

He's a newb maybe? I'll give you this point but I don't think it justifies a lynch.

Overlooking scummy behavior because the player is a newb is very flawed reasoning. A newb scum is much less likely to know theory and tells, and is thus more likely to commit tells. Ignoring those tells because the player is new is a bad idea.

That's not scumhunting, that's worthless crap. I'm not talking about the catching-up, which I didn't even bother reading because for whatever reason, replacement catch-up posts

always

have a lower signal-to-noise ratio than Glenn Beck. I'm talking about the result inHim ends up at. He called half the living players scum. That's not an exaggeration, I mean literally half. Conveniently, pretty much everyone who was a plausible lynch candidate, save for Valern, showed up on the death list. Then he never filtered the list down to a usable number. Or attacked anyone on the list. Or did anything with it at all for that matter. He just made a preposterous scumlist and sat on his ass.

Yeah, and hey there can be a wagon on half the players in a game on any given day. It's possible to be suspicious of more people than there are scum as not everyone is a perfect townie. Regardless, you seem to have ignored this (inevitably as a result of you not reading his posts):

We ought to be lynching one of {Pine, Peabody, Lucresia, Trendall} today.

Now isn't that a usable number?

Its barely a usable number, and he didn't give any preference to any of the people on the list. Saying that you're perfectly happy to lynch a third of the town today without ever narrowing that down is scummy, if only slightly. Defending inHim's scumlist here would have been an odd choice if he had flipped town. Since he flipped scum, it makes me very suspicious.

Okay, I read all of D3 AND RBT's iso in that game, and I have one question: what the fuck does it have to do with anything at all in this game? RBT scumhunted right out the gate (albeit in that stupid cryptic bullshit way he always does) so his situation in that game has precisely dick in common with AMP's in this one.

RBT got lynched for lurking. Before the wagon, he had ~ 11 posts out of 400+, several of which weren't useful, which led people to believe he was lurking. As such, I get a bit worried over jumping the low post count gun.

I'll start to get antsy if inhim plays poorly today, but I'd rather wait for content today from him before I make that decision.

Using anecdotal evidence to attempt to show that something that clearly benefits scum isn't a scum-tell is at the very least bad reasoning. Clearly, not all lurkers are scum. A slot that lurks across three different players, whose only contribution to the game was a couple of catch-up posts and some theory discussion, and who isn't posting even after he's under pressure is at the very least bad for the town and likely to be scum. If you'd simply said "I'm not sure yet, I want to see what he posts," that would have been one thing. Actively defending him is something entirely different.

[ICEninja]

Here is something I'd like everyone to take a look at:
Quilford declared, in his opening posts after replacing in, that Pine was extremely scummy, and made a great case against him. He then voted for him.
His next post, he declares that Trendall is town (with a seemingly fair amount of confidence, too) and continues until Erratus points out something mildly damning. Quilford then jumps all over that and pulls a crazy 180 read flip on Trendall. It just seems weird to me, considering how he just declared "in be4 VT" thing.

Also, besides 1 post early after replacing in, he mentions very little of inHim's slot. In his post regarding inHim's slot, he pointed out some things that are scummy that the slot did. He later, during day 2, states that he's "still fine" with inHim's lynch. He never at any point advocated the lynch of inHim before this. I'm getting a distancing vibe from it.

His reasoning for currently voting crazy are decently justified, so I'm not hugely suspicious of it. I will be, however, should crazy flip town. All in all, he's looking mildly suspicious but not today's best lynch.

Peabody, while looking fairly suspicious for reasons of earlier in the game, isn't looking quite as bad as he used to. I think the fact that Pine died as tracker and flipped town and all looked bad for Peabody. I don't think Peabody is our best lynch, but I'll be looking over him very closely should we enter lylo.

Erratus, while having scum hunted so hard to the point of having crazy tunnel vision and being anti-town, seems to do this as town. I'm having a really hard time clearing this guy as town in my head, but I'm having an even harder time really thinking this guy is scum.

Valern is also a double sided coin. In many posts, I feel like he's one of the most pro-town players we have. However, he's also piqued my suspicion several times, and his day 1 play was just awful. It's lame to be giving neutral reads this late in the game, but I don't currently have the time or patience to research his meta or delve any more deeply in to his posts for now.

Crazy is our best lynch for today for glaringly obvious reasons. All the cases presented against him have been incredibly valid and his defenses have been close to non-existent, especially since he screwed himself even further by saying he had a scum read on him for his day 2 actions. Bad bad bad.

DRK and Ranger are either town or scum that deserve to win.

[ICEninja]

As I stated earlier, I strongly prefer this day continue until at least Friday as I'll more or less be V/LA for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and won't be hammering right now.

If anyone voting crazy doesn't wish to have him lynched today, take your vote off right now. I'm looking forward to crazy's response of Ranger's latest post, and will likely hammer some time Friday barring some extremely significant new information.

[crazypianist1116]

If I actually had a chance of getting out of this situation and convincing 2 of you that I'm not scum, then I'd actually try. But that's not going to happen.

VOTE: Crazypianist1116

And Day 3 discussion ends now.

[Fenhl]

Vote Count 3.2

crazypianist1116	4	RangeroftheNorth	Peabody	Quilford	crazypianist1116

Spoiler: more info

Not voting: ICEninja, Valern, DeathRowKitty
The current deadline is Apr 25 10:14.

A majority has been reached, and crazypianist1116 is being lynched.

crazypianist1116, Mafia Goon, is dead.

It is now Night 3. The current deadline is Apr 23 7:33.

[Zodiark13]

As you have all noticed, Fenhl has gone AWOL, so, until he comes back, I'm taking over as mod. I'm also going to impose one rule while I'm here, and that is no purple, as it is my mod color. Ok, back to business.


Peabody —

Vanilla Townie

was killed Night 3.


Incoming Vote Count

Vote Count

ICEninja [L-3]

Quilford [L-3] -

RangeroftheNorth - [L-3]

Valern [L-3] -

DeathRowKitty [L-3] -


Not Voting: ICEninja, Quilford, RangeroftheNorth, Valern, DeathRowKitty

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Current Deadline

Other:
A massprod is being sent out. This doesn't count against prod rules.
Please bold V/LA announcements.

[ICEninja]

I believe a mass claim must happen.

I highly recommend that no one discuss the game before we decide upon a mass claim happening or not. Then should we agree that a mass claim is the correct move, we shouldn't discuss the game until the mass claim is complete. This leaves scum with the least possible information with which to fabricate their claims with, and gives them the most rope to hang themselves with.

Unless we have a cop or watcher or something that can confirm us a scum kill, in which case town auto wins.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'm not a huge fan of MC in this position, but I'm not strongly against it.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I think mass claim could be very helpful.

[DeathRowKitty]

I should probably explain my position a little better:

So far we've had a tracker and a doctor flip, whereas we've had 2 goons flip for the mafia. Balance-wise, I would guess that we either have one decent power role left or 2 kind-of-meh power roles. If someone has a result that's likely to put the game into a 1v1, it should be claimed now, since we can just lynch both players for an easy win, but barring that, I think it would be better to wait until 3 players alive to have the claim and potentially have a player clear from balance considerations.

[ICEninja]

So far we've had a tracker and a doctor flip, whereas we've had 2 goons flip for the mafia. Balance-wise, I would guess that we either have one decent power role left or 2 kind-of-meh power roles. If someone has a result that's likely to put the game into a 1v1, it should be claimed now, since we can just lynch both players for an easy win, but barring that, I think it would be better to wait until 3 players alive to have the claim and potentially have a player clear from balance considerations.

Shhh. Let everyone weigh in about the claim. Should we mass claim, we want scum to have the absolute minimum information possible.

Oh and I think everyone aught to give Zodiark13 a round of applause for stepping in and saving this game in Fenhl's absence. Thank you good sir.

[DeathRowKitty]

Meh, I probably shouldn't have said what I expected the balance to be, but I assume scum know which roles have flipped.

Oh and I think everyone aught to give Zodiark13 a round of applause for stepping in and saving this game in Fenhl's absence. Thank you good sir.

[Quilford]

I'm fine with massclaiming; how are we going to do it?

[Valern]

I'm fine with massclaim. Popcorn?

If so I vote DRK goes first.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Popcorn works. I vote that Valern starts

[Valern]

Screw it. We only have a week, and DRK is posting other places and not here. And I am

not

letting this turn into a stallfest.

Claim: VT
Popcorn: DeathRowKitty

If DRK hasn't claimed within 24 hours I propose a lynch.

[DeathRowKitty]

No need to get pissy. Jeez.

I'm a

two-shot vigilante

. I practically reasoned out why I killed when I did in this post (I killed Pine, obviously). I killed once to get us onto odd numbers and haven't used my second shot, since it would waste a lynch. Should also explain why I didn't want to massclaim (me alive in lylo and confirmed from having shot = town can't lose unless final scum is kill-immune). Making me two-shot and having a night 0 was probably bad game design by Fenhl. Best play for a two-shot vig in this setup (barring a successful doc protect) is to just never use his second kill, since days naturally occur on even numbers.

Anyway, Valern is probably scum for his previous post.

Popcorn: ICEninja

[Valern]

Anyway, Valern is probably scum for his previous post.

Explain? I simply don't want MC to take 3-4 days, severely limiting the time we have to discuss claims/vote count analysis/post analysis/other info before deciding on a lynch. And the longer MC takes, the longer scum have to come up with a suitable fakeclaim.

I propose ICE also gets lynched if he takes longer than 24 hours to claim, and this should apply to anyone else who follows, as well. This needs to be speedy.

[ICEninja]

I'm a VT.

Quilford is up.

[ICEninja]

And I agree with Valern, this process needs to go quickly and anyone who delays it is probably scum.