Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[Quilford]

VT here.

RotN is last.

[RangeroftheNorth]

VT.

[DeathRowKitty]

Soo...I'm clear! Way cool. I could ttly kill tonight and it wouldn't really change anything! I probably won't, but I can!

[ICEninja]

Alright well Kitty is obviously not a serial killer, as they would have killed multiple targets. While a 2 shot vig is unorthodox, I wouldn't put it past Fenhl who put in a weird doctor mod. I'm not sure what compulsive means, except perhaps being forced to protect? I suppose that would play in with the tracker or something?

Since town has no cop, I'm guessing the last scum is a role blocker, and probably bussed one or both scum buddies. I'm going to take a close look at the votes for scum, particularly of those that seemed weak or overly convinced.

Since DRK was one of my two strong town reads yesterday after a decent re-read, I'm going to fully believe that claim. Ranger is still a town read of mine, and will likely remain one unless someone shows me some very damning evidence otherwise.

Peabody was a slight scum read, so I'm glad that scum took care of him for us. They must have had some kind of power role read on him, because I don't think we could have taken him to lylo, and that night kill really did us a service.

Off the top of my head without going back and doing some reading and analysis, I'm going to say Quilford is our scum pick today, though Valern is a decent possibility.

[ICEninja]

Yeah, Quilford's crazy vote wasn't so great. His presence during day 3 was also nearly nonexistent. I'll read things deeper tomorrow, but I think we might have our scum team.

[Quilford]

In his post regarding inHim's slot, he pointed out some things that are scummy that the slot did. He later, during day 2, states that he's "still fine" with inHim's lynch. He never at any point advocated the lynch of inHim before this. I'm getting a distancing vibe from it.

Isn't calling someone scummy advocating their lynch?

Yeah, Quilford's crazy vote wasn't so great.

Why?

He is lying right now in response to question number 2. Townies don't need to lie.

Vote Erratus Apathos

.

The shenanigans that went down here give me a scummy vibe from ICE.


ICE has voted exactly 4 times. That's the same as me, and I replaced in on, what, page 12? Seems like fencesitting. In addition, ICE hasn't been on either of the scum wagons, but has been on the Trendall VT wagon. Also seems very very fishy to me.

VOTE: ICEninja

[Quilford]

And I agree with Valern, this process needs to go quickly and anyone who delays it is probably scum.

I'm interested that you say this with only two people left. I think this is scum looking for an easy reason to point the finger.

[Valern]

Soo...I'm clear! Way cool. I could ttly kill tonight and it wouldn't really change anything! I probably won't, but I can!

Actually, that gives me an idea.

What if we no lynch and then have you submit a kill on the person whom you suspect most to be scum? I mean, being town doesn't make a person right necessarily, but it

does

mean that we know you have town's interests at heart when you decide who to kill.

The only downside to this (but it's a pretty big downside if it's true) is if there's a Mafia Roleblocker who can kill and submit a roleblock at the same time. I think it's likely that our last scum (I'm presuming we only have one more for balance reasons) is a power role given that the two that have flipped were goons, and Roleblocker seems to be the most common mafia role given this site's meta, so this is definitely a concern. But I'll let those who've been here longer weigh the risks vs benefits of such a strategy.

Alternatively, we could just lynch ICE and be done with it. (Process of Elimination/Vote Analysis, GOGOGOGOGO!)

Points against lynching anyone else:

-RotN is pretty much in the clear due to voting patterns despite not saying anything I find particularly memorable
-DRK is in the clear due to role
-Quilford is probtown due to Lucresia's early claim, and voting/scumhunting habits (if he

is

scum, he's been bussing hardcore), and because I viewed his reaction to Erratus' emote at the end of one of the days (forget which one) as a towntell given that seemed to react to seeing it exactly the way I did, which was IIRC "oh shit, wtf, Erratus isn't scum, is he?" xD
-I'm town, but if you still need to be convinced you should

get your head out of your ass

probably ask someone else, as I'm obv-biased ^.^

Points for lynching ICE:

-VOTE ANALYSIS. DRK and ICE are the only people to have never been on a scum wagon at the point at which it is hammered. And again, DRK is clear, soooo~
-Romanus/Crazy slot's vote/unvote on ICE seems like an obv-bus/distancing manoeuvre in hindsight. He votes ICE for a bad reason and later unvotes, claiming that he "obviously had not read ICE's last post when I made [his post]" and "had composed it much earlier and then posted it without checking." But the post where he voted ICE was so short that I don't think this was actually the case, and I think he was backtracking, trying to come up with a reason for his bad vote/unvote that didn't scream "I'M DISTANCING FROM MY PARTNER, MMKAY"
-and then there's the reason I initially voted him in the first place, which is that he had a scummy overreaction to people voting him. This point is still valid.
-PEDIT: NK speculation in his above post. There is NO POINT to it and it only serves to pad his post and make it look like he has more to say with actual conviction behind it than he does.
-PEDIT: Quilford's points.

VOTE: ICEninja

Worst case scenario I'd be willing to die first as long as you guys promise me you'll lynch ICE when I flip town.

[Quilford]

And I agree with Valern, this process needs to go quickly and anyone who delays it is probably scum.

I'm interested that you say this with only two people left. I think this is scum looking for an easy reason to point the finger.

That is, two people left to popcorn.

[Quilford]

Also

UNVOTE: ICEninja
so we can actually hear some defence without someone jumping in and hammering

[Quilford]

because I viewed his reaction to Erratus' emote at the end of one of the days (forget which one) as a towntell given that seemed to react to seeing it exactly the way I did, which was IIRC "oh shit, wtf, Erratus isn't scum, is he?" xD

haha

I was like 'oh, fuck, game isn't over is it?'

[ICEninja]

I'm interested that you say this with only two people left. I think this is scum looking for an easy reason to point the finger.

I said this just to make sure no one (scum) would intentionally drag their feet on the claim. I had no intention on going through with a lynch based on how long they took, it was simply a pressure statement.

Isn't calling someone scummy advocating their lynch?

Absolutely not. It is one of the most commonly done skills as scum to appear that they find someone scummy but to not actually want their lynch. You absolutely looked like you were doing just this. You pointed out, to a very slight degree, who that slot had done that was scummy, then you went about pushing another player's lynch for most of the day.

Why

wasn't my vote on crazy very good

?

Underlined mine to put the quote in context. Your entire vote was "I vote for crazy based on reasining that I said

in my very first post of the game

. There are 2 things wrong with this. One, the information was outdated. Two, your conclusion of the slot in said post was

slightly leaning

scum. You can't just say "alright I'll lynch this player who is slightly leaning scum without contributing anything more to the discussion". It was a weak bus.

For the record, I had every intention to hammer crazy, but he self hammered. I made it very clear towards the end of the day that he was the player I wanted lynched, and I made no attempt to shift the wagon elsewhere.

Furthermore, we should probably be looking for players who bussed. Crazy would not self hammer if his scum buddy wasn't on the wagon already, thus denying him the chance to gain some town cred. Since both scum have flipped goon, we've probably got a remaining power role (I'm guessing role blocker, as it is most common). Power roles usually bus their goons for town cred.

But I'll let those who've been here longer weigh the risks vs benefits of such a strategy.

As I said, it seems like the likelihood of the last scum being a role blocker is way too high to employ this strategy. I say it is definitely out.

Romanus/Crazy slot's vote/unvote on ICE seems like an obv-bus/distancing manoeuvre in hindsight.

Now that you point this out, it sort of does, and there's really not much I can say to defend myself from this point. It was just a bad vote made by scum, really. They do that to town to try and get bandwagons rolling, which he did. Once he was called out on it, he backtracked so hard.

and then there's the reason I initially voted him in the first place, which is that he had a scummy overreaction to people voting him. This point is still valid.

I'm pretty sure that wagon on me was horrible, and it fell apart for good reasons. I didn't overreact to anything, a significant wagon jumped on me for abysmally bad reasons, and I reacted just the right amount. You never had valid reasons for voting me, and you can't use these to vote for me now.

NK speculation in his above post. There is NO POINT to it and it only serves to pad his post and make it look like he has more to say with actual conviction behind it than he does.

What? Scum killed a scum read of mine. Of course I'm going to say something on the matter. I fail to see anything useless or scummy about what I said.

Finally, there is Quilford bringing up my calling out of EA in order to get us out of RVS. Talk about desperate. If you guys seriously think that was a scum tell, I can think of 3 games just off the top of my head where I did the

exact same thing

as town. It is a play style tell, not an alignment tell, and Quilford trying to throw that dirt in my face is scummy as hell.

Scum knows that I need to die today. DRK is going to be night killed out of necessity, and Ranger isn't going to be lynched. Whichever between QUilford and Valern is scum knows that they HAVE to take the other to lylo to win.

I'll dig down and present my findings of Quilford and Valern probably today. I'm almost positive that scum is between these two, and like I said in day 3, if Ranger is scum, he deserves to win. Hopefully I'll be able to give a clear showing of which between Valern and Quilford is the best lynch today. There's no need to take this to lylo at all.

[Quilford]

I will respond to ICE's post. I just can't do it right now (timezones).

[Valern]

Yo, ICE. You seem to be focusing a lot on how the scum are thinking right now and what they thought over the last night.

[ICEninja]

Yo, ICE. You seem to be focusing a lot on how the scum are thinking right now and what they thought over the last night.

I do? I commented that scum made a poor night kill choice. Anything other than that? I've got a big spanking post there that you seemed to have ignored, that says virtually nothing of the sort. Are you trying also trying to throw dirt on me for things that aren't there?

Looking at crazy's lynch wagon, he's got Ranger, Peabody, Quilford, and himself. Ranger was very town by starting the wagon, in my eyes. Peabody is confirmed town, so there isn't much to speculate on about that. Quilford jumps on the wagon without giving any reasoning beyond "for reasons stated [in my entry post]." In said entry post, he concluded that the slot was slightly leaning scum. This looks very much like a bus, and Quilford is really the only person on the wagon who could have been busing.

Likewise, look at Quilford's vote on inHim. It was just "I'm still fine with this lynch" after having said fairly little about the slot.

Also, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to Valern's ISO 26:

On the other hand, Romanus (Crazy's slot) did that thing where he inexplicably defended Lucresia (Quilford's slot) early on, so if Quilford flips scum I'd definitely take a harder look at Crazy. (And Quilford probably is scum bussing his buddy imo. I really don't have anything concrete on Quilford but there are a lot of things about him that really twinge my gut the wrong way.)

Funny how all of that disappeared because he said "what?" to Erratus's evil face. In fact, Valern is now saying that Quilford is probably town based on his voting patterns, when earlier he stated that Quilford is probably scum busing.

I think our better bet is Quilford for today. If Quilford isn't (probably the last?) scum, then Valern assuredly is. Valern's play definitely doesn't strike me as busing quite as much as Quilford's, and crazy self hammering before scum PR Valern could get on the wagon doesn't add up so well, so he isn't the best lynch for today.

[RangeroftheNorth]

On my phone, so I'm not doing a full post. The reason I'm not convinced by the case against Quilford is that when crazy was trying to divert the bandwagon on inHim, he tried to start one on quilford. It doesn't make much sense to try and save one scum partner by busing another. That said, there are other explanations (distancing, derailling the bandwagon without intending to lynch quillford.) I think I have a pretty good case against valern that I'll post tomorrow when I'm on my PC.

[ICEninja]

I'm going to be on limited access until Saturday evening, but I will definitely have time at some point tomorrow to stop by.

The reason I'm not convinced by the case against Quilford is that when crazy was trying to divert the bandwagon on inHim, he tried to start one on quilford.

I'm willing to listen to a case against Valern, but I think the fact that scum crazy self hammered before scum PR Valern could bus equally reduces suspicion on him as your point does on Quilford, and I have more points against Quilford than I do against Valern. We'll see how I feel about your case, though, as I'm open to a Valern lynch if there's good reasoning.

[Valern]

Of course you are. Why don't you just let town!Ranger do all the mislynch sleuthwork for you, and then you just stroll in off your V/LA and vote me like that wasn't your plan all along.

And I'm not responding to you for the most part because there's no point in me responding to someone I know is scum except where it might be useful for non-scum to read it.

I do? I commented that scum made a poor night kill choice. Anything other than that? I've got a big spanking post there that you seemed to have ignored, that says virtually nothing of the sort. Are you trying also trying to throw dirt on me for things that aren't there?

I'm guessing the last scum is a role blocker, and probably bussed one or both scum buddies. I'm going to take a close look at the votes for scum, particularly of those that seemed weak or overly convinced.

Peabody was a slight scum read, so I'm glad that scum took care of him for us. They must have had some kind of power role read on him, because I don't think we could have taken him to lylo, and that night kill really did us a service.

Scum knows that I need to die today. DRK is going to be night killed out of necessity, and Ranger isn't going to be lynched. Whichever between QUilford and Valern is scum knows that they HAVE to take the other to lylo to win.

You've been "sitting on the fence" about me the whole game, knowing that I have been working my ass off for this town but afraid to say anything that would change your "read" from earlier in the game. There is scum motivation in never bothering to really reanalyze your read on someone.

Funny how all of that disappeared because he said "what?" to Erratus's evil face. In fact, Valern is now saying that Quilford is probably town based on his voting patterns, when earlier he stated that Quilford is probably scum busing.

It's called "gut". It's called "town can do complete 180s on their reads with no risk because they don't have to leave their mislynch prospects as open as possible like scum do." It doesn't have to make sense to you for it to be valid to me. And you know, you can throw dirt on me all you want for flipping on my Quilford read and flipping from neutral-ish to scum for you as well, but the fact of the matter is there is

no scum motivation

for me to suddenly be calling someone town who would be a much easier mislynch to push were I scum, especially now that we're down to 5 people.

If there was any possibility of there being two scum left, you might have a point. But there isn't without this game being imbalanced as hell, so no. Your dirt-throwing has no merit.

[DeathRowKitty]

I don't think ICEninja is scum.

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, so I have schoolwork to do, but come...uhh...whenever I'm not busy, I'm gonna go all crazy reading/scumhunting this game, considering I have a vig shot should we mislynch (and should I decide I'm confident enough on who scum is to actually shoot). Be on the lookout for Kitteh-hunting (and yes RoTN, I mean hunting

from

Kitteh, not hunting

of

Kitteh).

[Quilford]

ICE, why would I bus my scumbuddies in my first posts of the game?

[Quilford]

Give it a rest, Erratus. You're being very anti-town right now.

What was the point of saying this?

[Quilford]

Why

wasn't my vote on crazy very good

?

Underlined mine to put the quote in context. Your entire vote was "I vote for crazy based on reasining that I said

in my very first post of the game

. There are 2 things wrong with this. One, the information was outdated. Two, your conclusion of the slot in said post was

slightly leaning

scum. You can't just say "alright I'll lynch this player who is slightly leaning scum without contributing anything more to the discussion". It was a weak bus.

He was the only person left who I had a scummy read on. The others were dead.

[Quilford]

Also, how was the information outdated?

[ICEninja]

Valern, Of the four posts you quoted, the first was me responding to your accusation, the second one you said almost the same thing yourself, the 3rd was, as I've said before, worth pointing out, and the last one is simply me voicing that I know what scum is trying to do in order to win. So unless you can actually point out how any of this is scummy, you're just padding your case.

And I'm not responding to you for the most part because there's no point in me responding to someone I know is scum except where it might be useful for non-scum to read it.

Oh? You "know" I'm scum, do you? Then either you're scum, or town who is being foolishly bravado. The burden of proving my guilt is on you. Obviously Quilford doesn't have any real points on me, so if you want me lynched its up to you to respond to it. If the case against you ends up being damning, then obviously you better respond to everything to try and convince us you aren't scum.

ICE, why would I bus my scumbuddies in my first posts of the game?

What you did is you called your scum buddy "slightly leaning scum" (AKA FoS) and called town pine "SCUMMITY SCUM SCUM" or something like that, and voted him. This sure looks like the absolutely classic distancing attempt of "FoS scum buddy, vote townie".

He was the only person left who I had a scummy read on. The others were dead.

You had a scum read on Peabody, based on Pine's flip. You had even voted for Peabody at one point based on said scum read. However, I don't see anything about you remembering a scum read on Peabody during day 3. Crazy was certainly not the only player alive you had suspected.

And it wasn't outdated per se, that was the wrong way of putting it. You added nothing new, contributed nothing for day 3 at all. You just said "here is stuff I already said in my first post of the game, let's have a lynch". Definitely not pro-town, and completely void of scum hunting. Town doesn't actually know who scum is, and therefore needs to put forth effort to find them. You already knew crazy was scum, so you didn't really have to go in depth to find anything. You just knew, so you bused based on that. Beyond the entry posts you made, which were quite good, you've done painfully little scum hunting.

I am eagerly awaiting scum hunting and cases from DRK and Ranger, as they are clearly the town players who will be setting the precedent for today.