Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[Quilford]

btw if I am hammered without warning

be sure to consider all possibilities tomorrow, and to not place a vote until you are sure it's on scum

[ICEninja]

So, Ice, what's your case on me?

My biggest reason for voting you is your voting patterns. They're strongly aligned with what a scum power role would do to bus doomed goon mates.

I'm extremely confident DRK is town, and have had a solid town read on Ranger for a majority of the game, so I'm about 95% confident that the remaining scum is between yourself and Valern, and the voting patterns just make more sense for you to be scum.

I've mentioned a lot about the specifics of it in my past several posts, so there really is no reason for me to repeat myself.

Additional reasons would be some of the things I mentioned in post 406. Your play shortly after replacing in was somewhat scummy. Also, your presence during day 3 was nonexistent. Finally, your recent poor reasons for voting me along with throwing dirt on me that says nothing about my alignment doesn't really track with your town meta. From a quick read of some of your town games, you're a decently solid player and pro-town presence. Better than you have been this game, anyway, which could indicate a different alignment.

[Quilford]

I'll address all these later today; no hammering, please.

[ICEninja]

Come on DRK...

[Zodiark13]

Due to proximity to the deadline, and to promote activity, I'm reducing the time until a player is prodded down to 48 hours. This puts DRK and Ranger in need of a prod.

Edit: Valern also.

[RangeroftheNorth]

I'm here. I just don't have anything I feel needs to be said. I'm mostly waiting on DRK.

[Valern]

/prodded

Working right now, real post later.

[DeathRowKitty]

This game has reached the top of my mafia-related priority list and something useful will appear here tonight.

[Valern]

Well that self-wagon went nowhere fast.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ICE

Nothing's changed. ICE is scum. Quilford is not scum. I am willing to die today if need be in order to be listened to about ICE.

[ICEninja]

Valern, let's suppose I get lynched today. I assure you I will flip town. Then what? You probably will die as a result, and then if you're town we lose. Quit being so stubborn. I have a quite valid case against Quilford, and my points defending myself from your case are quite good too. How does my voting history match up with scum PR? Sure if we had a scum PR flip and we're assuming the last scum to be a goon, then your VCA indicates me as scum. Just look at Quilford's votes on scum. They're horrible, and so painfully obviously busing goons.

DRK, at the time of this posting, we've got 1 day and 4 hours until deadline. You've contributed nothing so far today, and this really isn't fair to us.

[Quilford]

So, Ice, what's your case on me?

My biggest reason for voting you is your voting patterns. They're strongly aligned with what a scum power role would do to bus doomed goon mates.¹

I'm extremely confident DRK is town, and have had a solid town read on Ranger for a majority of the game, so I'm about 95% confident that the remaining scum is between yourself and Valern, and the voting patterns just make more sense for you to be scum.

I've mentioned a lot about the specifics of it in my past several posts, so there really is no reason for me to repeat myself.

Additional reasons would be some of the things I mentioned in post 406. Your play shortly after replacing in was somewhat scummy. Also, your presence during day 3 was nonexistent.² Finally, your recent poor reasons for voting me along with throwing dirt on me that says nothing about my alignment³ doesn't really track with your town meta. From a quick read of some of your town games, you're a decently solid player and pro-town presence. Better than you have been this game, anyway, which could indicate a different alignment.⁴

¹ give me some examples of games you've seen in which these patterns are evident; also voting patterns should point to valern-scum as you so nicely pointed out some time back
² how does this mean I'm scum
³ where have I 'thrown dirt on you'? specific examples please
⁴ lawl, cautious language. If you think my meta "could" point to me being a different alignment, you shouldn't be voting me based on that

continues until Erratus points out something mildly damning

you clearly haven't been reading the game; Erratus did not point out anything to me

[DeathRowKitty]

It's not like you couldn't have made a decision without me >.>

So here's where I'm currently at...I've been reading on and off for the past two hours and I've flip-flopped from Quilford to ICE and back (with a touch of Valern in the middle). I probably should have taken notes on specifics, but I didn't, so here's my "I don't want to be stabbed repeatedly for hammering without giving an explanation" summary:

Valern was the first of the three players I decided I didn't want to vote. I'd already decided that based on his self-vote, but had subsequently changed my mind and grown paranoid about him doing that as WIFOM. On reread, Valern's posts just generally didn't set off my gut and had two things going for them:
1) His thought process this game has seemed town. He's done some decent townhunting and scumhunting and his posts and stances have seemed very natural.
2) I can't actually remember any of them, but I remember catching a few nice town tells off of him. That's actually what ended up making him suspicious of him at one point (some of my more recent scum play has involved abusing things that are town tells in the current meta, but really have no reason to be aside from the fact that scum tend not to do them), but I eventually decided it's better to just take them at face value and he really does seem town.

Truth be told, my ICEninja read is a bit of a mess. I thought he was town early, was a bit less sure later, decided he was town again, etc, and then made the same flip-flops during reread.

So while you could say my ICEninja read is overdeveloped to the point where all I can do with it is WIFOM myself, the problem with my Quilford read is that it's underdeveloped. He replaced in around when I'd stopped paying much attention to the thread and I never got much of a feel for him in context. In my reread now, I read the thread very much out of order (day 3, day 2, end of day 1, start of day 1, lthe last page or so of day 4, middle of day 1 or something like that (and with varying degrees of depth)) and, not surprisingly, still probably lost a lot of the context. Quilford really hasn't stood out in his play in any way. He replaced Lucresia, who looked pretty bad at the start of day 1, but then responded rather calmly to the ensuing pressure. Her early vanilla claim made me write her off as town initially, but, depending on how familiar she is with either roles or site meta, it could be null.

If I'm going to be completely honest here, I haven't read Quilford very closely. My choice of him as scum right now is based more on the other players seeming more town than he does than on an actual read of him. The big thing that makes me question my ICE read (and it's probably been brought up by someone) is this post and his few after, which look like him awkwardly dancing around inHim's wagon.

I'm not going to vote yet. I would like to read certain things a little more closely when I'm less tired (yes, I know the deadline is in less than 24 hours) and then I'll look into placing a vote.

tl;dr
Quilford > ICEninja >> Valern, for now

[ICEninja]

give me some examples of games you've seen in which these patterns are evident

I'm not going to spend hours of my time researching something to prove anything to you, the point is self evident. Scum PRs benefit from busing goon allies. If DRK requests this as well, I'll find one or two of my games where this has happened, but I assure you it is a waste of time.

also voting patterns should point to valern-scum as you so nicely pointed out some time back

Yes slightly, but less so. Remember that crazy self hammered before scumValern would have been given the chance to bus him, whereas you were already on the inevitable wagon. Also, Valern's inHim vote was worlds better than yours. This is why I'll suspect Valern second should your lynch somehow not end the game, but I doubt we'll end up there.

how does this mean I'm scum

You lurked crazy hard the day you bused a scum buddy. This doesn't need explaining why that benefits a scum motivation more than it benefits a town motivation.

where have I 'thrown dirt on you'? specific examples please

I just devoted an entire post to this VERY recently. It is fairly pathetic that you had to ask this.

lawl, cautious language.

It is, admittingly, my weakest point. It is a supplemental piece of evidence that is meant to support the case, not carry it.

If you think my meta "could" point to me being a different alignment, you shouldn't be voting me based on that

If I was voting you for this reason, then this would make sense. However, this point is the least of

supporting

reasons for my vote. I made it very clear that the voting patterns are the primary reason for my vote. Statements like this are called straw man defenses, as you took the weakest part of my case and said I should not be voting you based on the lacking area of said weakest reason. It is a logical fallacy.

Furthermore, you have done no actual defending here. Asking your attacker to "point out examples of this", which you did twice, is not defense at all. Asking how something points to you being scum when something clearly does is not defense. All you're doing is distracting town from the point that you have no defense, save for the weakest point of my case.

You're scum, you're caught, and you know it.

DRK, you obviously have no intention of finishing this game correctly so just hammer him and either win or be NKed so you can be done with this game.

[DeathRowKitty]

Hey, I read stuff, stop complaining. I apologize if wanting to vote correctly doesn't qualify as "finishing this game correctly."

(I'm in class right now and I'm just checking in to see what happened. I can get back to looking over things in a couple of hours.)

[DeathRowKitty]

Eh, I have a little time.

I'm reading posts from day 2 around the post I linked from ICE and I found an interesting reason Valern is probably town:

When the inHim wagon was in full swing and he'd already been asked for a claim, Valern comes in and votes Quilford. This is immediately followed by crazypianist doing exactly the same thing. Now, call me crazy, but having two scum decide to start a counterwagon when their buddy is likely to be lynched just doesn't seem likely to me. /WIFOM

[DeathRowKitty]

It's also a bit of a town tell for Quilford, considering he was apparently intended to be the counterwagon for inHim. It's not a huge town tell. If crazy really thought he could get Quilford lynched, it would make inHim look a lot better.

[DeathRowKitty]

Actually...if I'm allowed to just completely go against everything I've just posted, Valern apparently looks really bad when you read day 2 and day 3 in order...

[DeathRowKitty]

Okay, I'm growing increasingly convinced that ICE is town.

Whether or not I shoot tonight (assuming the game makes it that far) will be dependent on how strong my reads are. If I can get a strong town read on one of the players, I'm going to shoot the other if we lynch wrong today (and will announce as such). If this is the case, if the player I say I'm going to shoot doesn't die, you know who to lynch tomorrow.

[ICEninja]

Hey, I read stuff, stop complaining. I apologize if wanting to vote correctly doesn't qualify as "finishing this game correctly."

I was referring to reading everything out of order and out of context. If you've been reading stuff in context, which it seems you've been doing, then I retract my impatient statement.

Whether or not I shoot tonight (assuming the game makes it that far) will be dependent on how strong my reads are. If I can get a strong town read on one of the players, I'm going to shoot the other if we lynch wrong today (and will announce as such).

This is so close to word for to to what I was going to suggest during twilight that its creepy.

Deadline is less than 14 hours from the time of this post.

[Quilford]

feel free to hammer me

for confirmed ICEscum

[Valern]

I don't care how close we are to deadline, ICE trying to rush DRK's decision is scummy. DRK's vote needs to have as much thought put into it as possible (except when it comes to the point of WIFOMing oneself to death, but I just hope DRK knows the meaning of Occam's Razor.) I'm sure DRK knows better than to forget about the deadline.

Quilford is still town.
ICE is still scum.

I hope it doesn't take another mislynch (or two) to prove this. =(

[ICEninja]

I don't care how close we are to deadline, ICE trying to rush DRK's decision is scummy.

I am a deadline conscious player. Every game I've been in that has come close to the deadline, I've made noise about it. I've been suspected multiple times because of how jumpy I get around deadlines.

This is why I like longer game days than 1 week.

Valern, seriously. Did you see his response to my case? How is he still town? How??? Because he reacted at Erratus making a face? That didn't necessarily mean anything, you're just assuming what it meant.

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Valern: You act incredibly certain that Ice is scum and Quilford is town. You've said it a couple times now. Why? You haven't really responded to Ice's points against Quilford, and both of your town tells on Quilford are pretty weak. Being unwilling to consider lynching you today would just be good play for scum Quilford, since you think he's town and Ice thinks he's scum. His commenting on EA's emote is pretty close to meaningless.

Your arguments against Ice are also pretty weak, although not as weak as your town-tells on Quilford. Never having been on a scum wagon doesn't really mean much, especially when it was obvious that inHim and Crazy were going to get lynched several RL days before they did. It would be surprising if scum DIDN'T bus in that situation. I'm certainly not as convinced that Ice is town as I was when the day began, but I also don't think the arguments that he's scum are very good either, and certainly not good enough for you to be as convinced as you are. I think you're tunneling on Ice. Its possible you're right, but you aren't considering alternatives.

[Valern]

GJ bringing up my weakest point on him being town like it's my only reason for thinking he's town. (PEDIT: mostly @ICE)

Lucresia claimed hella early, and as that was discussed at the time that's probably a towntell. There's an ongoing I've been watching in which Lucresia did the exact same lurk-a-ton-and-get-replaced thing, and while that slot hadn't flipped last time I checked on that ongoing it's enough to make me think her lurky play wasn't an alignment tell.

Quilford came in and singled out Crazy and Pine for being scum at a time when Crazy really particularly being suspected. Again, emphasis, there wasn't a whole lot of heat on Crazy/Romanus slot when he made his initial post on him. That doesn't say distancing/bussing to me, because as scum it's generally a bad idea to bus your scumbuddies unnecessarily. There was a lot of lurking going on with his slot in the midgame, but hell, he certainly wasn't the only one (hi, DRK). Crazy quite possibly tried to save Inhim at the last minute by jumping on to my Quilford bandwagon (as DRK pointed out), which, even if Quilford

was

scum, certainly wasn't a smart move given that whatever scum is left is probably a PR (ie, Crazy would have been sacrificing a PR to save a goon).

You are the only person who has never been on a scum wagon at the time a lynch occurred, aside from DRK. If you recall I suspected DRK before MC happened, because aside from being (now)confirmed DRK had far scummier play than anyone else here. You have been defensive most of the day today, whereas Quilford has been more aggressive (and as I believe I stated earlier today, I think too much time spent on self-defense is a scumtell.)

I also think it's important to look at who has been killed and what their stances were. DarthYoshi was probably killed for suspecting inhim/crazy. Erratus died N2, who had probably the best vote on the early ICE wagon, had strong convictions on the Inhim wagon, and called people out for stalling the game around the time just for the sake of "more information!" (including ICE, but also myself, although I placed the hammer on that wagon after he said that, because fuck it if he wasn't 100% right that we probably weren't going to get anything else useful out of that day). Peabody died N3, shortly after bringing this up:

@ICEninja, in my analysis of day 1, I noticed that you withheld your vote from Lucresia though you were suspicious, but you did vote both Erratus (based on lying to your questions) and on lynchking (due to his single 'scummy' vote post). Lucresia had a good case against her, and I'm wondering why, though you voiced suspicion, you voted for two other people who have less evidence against them rather than never placing a vote on Lucresia?

I also noticed that you attacked Romanus for voting you based on false premises. After Romanus agreed that the bandwagon was on false premise, he unvoted. However, you asked a question:

ICEninja 139 wrote:You haven't given any reason for no longer finding me scum, especially considering how you still feel like I did what you accused me of doing. It looks like a hasty retreat from a bandwagon that is falling apart.

This question looks forced. If Romanus unvoted because he found his vote was on a bad premise, why would he still find you as scum? I believe Romanus' reason for unvoting was good.

In my reread of the case against the Lucresia slot, I realized that there was some merit behind it which makes me wonder why ICEninja never jumped on that wagon. I cannot get a good read on Quilford yet.

In fact, all of D3 he was probably the person to say the most in a negative light about ICE, who of course during the night would have been the only scum left at that point. Hmm.

Aside from DarthYoshi having a thing against me, none of these are people who have particularly suspected me or Quilford IIRC. And sure, there are other reasons than "ohnoez they haet me" for scum to kill someone, but it's almost certainly a factor unless someone drops a PR tell or something.

Normally I would go to the trouble of bolding my main points and all that shit, but I'm feeling lazy right now so instead you get a wallpost.

[ICEninja]

Lucresia claimed hella early, and as that was discussed at the time that's probably a towntell.

I've actually recently been in a game where scum who was under only mild pressure claimed during day 1, and was acquitted most of the rest of the game for it. While I'm inclined to believe that this is more likely for town to do than scum, I would say only marginally as it benefits town nothing from doing so. Scum tend to break harder under pressure. I know I do when I'm scum.

There's an ongoing I've been watching in which Lucresia did the exact same lurk-a-ton-and-get-replaced thing, and while that slot hadn't flipped last time I checked on that ongoing it's enough to make me think her lurky play wasn't an alignment tell.

So you're bringing up something that no one's really talked about, and said it's a neutral tell. Hmm. Irrelevant at best.

Quilford came in and singled out Crazy and Pine for being scum at a time when Crazy really particularly being suspected.

"Slightly leaning scum" on crazy (scum) and "SCUMMITY SCUM SCUM" on Pine (town). I've already discussed the "FoS scum buddy, vote townie" tell that isn't by any means outdated, I still see scum doing it. It's just classic distancing.

That doesn't say distancing/bussing to me, because as scum it's generally a bad idea to bus your scumbuddies unnecessarily.

Since when is calling a scum buddy "slightly leaning scum" busing? It is distancing. When he comes in later and votes his buddy, who is certainly facing death, for the same reasons he called him "slightly leaning scum", it then becomes necessary busing. I agree that it is generally a bad idea to bus a scumbuddy needlessly, but it isn't at all a bad idea to distance from them so long as you don't get caught doing it.

Crazy quite possibly tried to save Inhim at the last minute by jumping on to my Quilford bandwagon (as DRK pointed out), which, even if Quilford was scum, certainly wasn't a smart move given that whatever scum is left is probably a PR (ie, Crazy would have been sacrificing a PR to save a goon).

This is the only part of scumQuilford that doesn't add up. I'm not sure why he did this. However, this one piece of evidence is a smaller town indication than crazy denying you the ability to bus by self hammering, so I believe that he is still much more likely scum than you.

You have been defensive most of the day today, whereas Quilford has been more aggressive (and as I believe I stated earlier today, I think too much time spent on self-defense is a scumtell.)

Quilford completely failed at defending himself from my case against him. That is simply because he cannot defend himself against such valid points, He instead used misdirection to attempt to hide the fact that he didn't defend himself from anything. "Show me examples" and "how does that make me scum" (when it obviously does, no explanation needed) isn't a pro-town way to defend yourself from a case.

Valern, didn't you just recently call me scum because I speculated on night kills and was thinking about what scum did and such? And now you're doing it? Have you even LOOKED at my case again Quilford? It is damn solid.