Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[Valern]

There's a difference between speculating on what scum have already done, and what speculating on what they have yet to do, or speculating on what they've done and being like "oh boy, I'm sure glad they did that".

Yes, I've looked at the case, and I don't think it is "damn strong". But evidently no one thinks my case against you or for quilford town is "damn strong" either, so.......

[ICEninja]

Valern, deadline is in 2 and a half hours. Can you hammer if DRK doesn't? Even if you truly believe I'm scum, there's no way you're getting me lynched with Quilford alive anyway, and a no kill hurts town very badly.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'm around. I'll do a final look at the thread when I'm done depressing myself.

[Valern]

Well fuck, you're right. Ugh.

I was about to go to sleep, too. >.<

I'll try to stay up a little longer and if DRk hasn't popped into the thread by the time I simply can't stay awake any longer, I'll hammer to prevent a no-lynch.

PEDIT: ohai, DRK.

I'm going to sleep, then. Hopefully DRK makes the right decision. =/

[DeathRowKitty]

So just over an hour until deadline...I'm around and will be for the next hour. If nothing changes, I'll hammer Quilford (no intention of hammering ICE). I probably won't be shooting tonight, but I do plan on using this time to try to get out a last opinion.

[DeathRowKitty]

No, actually I think I'm ready.

Vote: Quilford

I don't expect the game to go to night, but if it does, I won't be shooting.

[Quilford]

I sure fucking hope that wasn't mylo, because I'm town.

There's no way Valern is scum. It's ICE or RotN.

[DeathRowKitty]

No, there were 5 players alive. Either I shoot tonight or town gets another lynch tomorrow.

[DeathRowKitty]

Also, it would be funny if RotN is scum, considering we all just wrote him off today...

Anyway, assuming Quilford isn't messing with us, I won't be shooting tonight. Good luck tomorrow.

[Quilford]

good luck tomorrow town

although I'm pretty sure scum will win this

[Zodiark13]

Quil is a VT, official lynch scene here later.

[Zodiark13]

Sorry for the delay.
DeathRowKitty —

Two-Shot Town Vigilante

was killed Night 4.


Incoming Vote Count

Vote Count

ICEninja [L-3]

RangeroftheNorth - [L-3]

Valern [L-3] -


Not Voting: ICEninja, RangeroftheNorth, Valern,

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Current Deadline

Other:
Please bold V/LA announcements.

[ICEninja]

Well. Damn. That sucks.

I'm definitely leaning Valern over Ranger, but there are a couple good reasons why Valern isn't scum. I was just so sure of Quilford.

I'm going to have to think about this one I guess.

[ICEninja]

Also, please don't make any hasty votes on me, whichever one of you is town. That will result in scum voting me for the lose. This should go without saying, but Valern has been over-convinced of my scumminess.

[ICEninja]

A massprod is being sent out. This doesn't count against prod rules.

I never received a prod, and no one else has responded to it. Did it get sent out correctly?

Mod Edit: Opps, didn't see that.

[Valern]

You say "over-convinced" like it's a bad thing. I used process of elimination, VCA, and a little bit of gut intuition to determine who was scum and who wasn't. So, apparently, did Quilford. And neither of us was listened to and he got killed for it.

You're definitely scum, but from where I'm standing the only person whose opinion really matters is Ranger, so I'll abstain from voting and wait for his thoughts.

Reiterating some VCA:

Trendall

lynch -- Valern,

Erratus Apathos

, ICEninja, RangeroftheNorth,

crazypianist1116

,

Quilford

,

DarthYoshi

Inhim

lynch --

Erratus Apathos, Quilford,

RangeroftheNorth,

Peabody,

Valern

Crazy

lynch -- RangeroftheNorth,

Peabody, Quilford,

crazypianist1116

Quilford

lynch -- RangeroftheNorth, ICEninja,

DeathRowKitty

RangeroftheNorth has been on every lynch wagon, town and scum. He breaks even at

2

-

2

.

Valern has been on the Trendall wagon and the Inhim wagon. Zhe breaks even at

1

-

1

.

ICEninja has been on every town wagon and none of the scum wagons. His votes are heavily scum-biased at

2

-

0

.

I shouldn't have to tell you who comes out of the VCA looking the worst.

[RangeroftheNorth]

At the moment, I'm leaning toward Ice scum. I'm not very confident about this, so I'll go through the game a couple more times. Valern's VCA didn't look very good for Ice, but I've found that VCA's can often be used to demonstrate exactly what their poster wants them to demonstrate.

Ice insisted a couple of times yesterday that he didn't think Crazy would have self-hammered without the last scum on the wagon. This clearly wasn't true, but I think this point still looks pretty good for Valern. Since Ice brought this point up, it doesn't really apply to him. Ice having not been on either of the scum wagons also doesn't look good.

[ICEninja]

I realize this looks bad for me. I really was hinging everything on Quilford being scum in order to win this game, alas the effort ended up hurting town badly.

I do have to point out though that it just doesn't make sense for a scum PR to be on every townie wagon and on zero scum wagons. That just doesn't track at all. If a scum PR was dead and we're assuming the last one to be a goon then yeah, it would be absolutely awful for me, but the fact is even scum as bad as I am (and I am terrible at it indeed) knows not to push on

every

townie wagon and

none

of the scum wagons. This isn't WIFOM either, because scum clearly have the intention of being perceived as town, and scum PRs doubly so.

Interestingly enough, I had intentions of hammering both of the scum players, but was beaten to the punch. While this is, and I admit it, WIFOM, it is still a valid consideration: wouldn't scum ICE have made a bigger effort to actually have hammered a scum buddy instead of showing uncertainty and hesitating? Particularly on the Crazy wagon where EA was pushing for the hammer very hard.

I'm still thinking Ranger is probably town, despite having a strong possibility of busing 2 targets and having slid under the radar for most of this game, as Valern's day 1 play was ridiculously scummy.

However, I'm not positive I'm going to be able to convince whichever of you is town that I am town as well. I guess I'll do my best.

I'll do my best to put together a comprehensive case against Valern, and do my best to show why he's more likely to be scum than i am.

[ICEninja]

I will be setting aside time tomorrow to made a case.

Ice insisted a couple of times yesterday that he didn't think Crazy would have self-hammered without the last scum on the wagon. This clearly wasn't true, but I think this point still looks pretty good for Valern. Since Ice brought this point up, it doesn't really apply to him.

I used this as a point to lynch Quilford over Valern, but since the situation fits both of us, you can't really use it on one of us without the other. Just because I pointed it out doesn't change much, really.

Valern, I don't really expect you to contribute anything more to this game than you already have, but if you're town then it's worth at least looking over Ranger without bias.

[Valern]

No, it's really not.

Good job trying to get me to turn on obvtown, though.

(More in-depth post either today or tomorrow.)

[RangeroftheNorth]

Sorry. Really busy weekend. Content post coming later tonight.

[ICEninja]

Alright, Here is the stuff about Valern's day 1 play that was scummy, and also my defense will follow. Further analysis of Valern's play past day 1 will follow later.

His vote for me was just terrible. He later justifies his vote with this:

ICE is scummy because he went into SURVIVAL MODE ZOMG the moment he got some pressure on him. This is not a towny reaction to pressure. A towny reaction to being voted is to more or less ignore it (unless that person is voting them for scummy reasons) and continue to concentrate on scumhunting.

As I responded shortly after:

This paragraph is so bad I don't even know where to begin.
1) Lucresia went in to survival mode way harder than I did, yet you unvoted her.
2) A townie reaction to being voted for reasons as bad as the ones put on me is NOT to ignore them.
3) The votes on me are awful, and I have every right to attack them.
4) I do happen to be concentrating on scum hunting, because I'm nearly positive that there is scum on my wagon somewhere.

What i posted here is still valid. He was on all 3 early bandwagons, and late to boot. If you take my word for my alignment, all 3 of these early day 1 bandwagons he pushed were on townies. This is even worse now that we know the flips.

Valern also seemed to have weird reads on Lucresia. I get the vibe that he knew she was town by the way he posted during day 1, but I'm having a hard time qualifying this read. However, he definitely did seem to know Quilford would flip town despite my fairly solid case on him, and equally despite Quilford's severe lack of defense.

Valern played day 4 perfectly. He pushed my lynch, and declared Quilford town. If Quilford gets lynched, he gets town cred and has an easier time pushing my lynch. If I get lynched instead of Quilford, suddenly I flip town and Valern goes back and says "Oh wow, I guess he must have been right after all!" and wins the game with the Quilford lynch, especially considering how much clout there was on his lynch.

I'd also like to note that DRK was the NK. Now obviously she was unlynchable, but she had the more solid stance that I'm town (at the end of day 4) compared to Ranger. Scum Valern would obviously take the player most interested in my lynch in to lylo. Scum ICE would have pushed harder for Valern being scum day 4 to convince DRK to shoot Valern.

Additionally, most of the reason for lynching me today seems to be about my not having been on any of the scum wagons. Recall that I was the one who asked inHim to claim, obviously showing intents to hammer. I also showed intents to hammer crazy, as well. Both hammers fell too quickly for me to do the honors. That isn't my fault.

While it isn't that strong of a defense, it's something: most of the now dead townies had a town read on me.

Finally, I apparently got a lot of town cred for accidentally pointing out that I have no night activity when I was prodded. Everyone seems to have forgotten about that.

[RangeroftheNorth]

So the more I re-read through everything, the more I get the feeling that Ice has consistently been trying to stay in the background and avoid attention, until day 4 when he was the last scum remaining. This was especially true days 2 and 3. During the time we were lynching scum, Ice was barely involved in the game. He wasn't on the bandwagons, even if he did express his willingness to hammer, but he also wasn't pushing alternate theories. Admittedly, pushing other wagons hard while scum is on the chopping block can be a big scum tell, but if a scum was hoping his partners wouldn't get lynched, but didn't want to draw attention to himself if they did, sitting in the background would be a much more subtle way to do it.

I will be setting aside time tomorrow to made a case.

Ice insisted a couple of times yesterday that he didn't think Crazy would have self-hammered without the last scum on the wagon. This clearly wasn't true, but I think this point still looks pretty good for Valern. Since Ice brought this point up, it doesn't really apply to him.

I used this as a point to lynch Quilford over Valern, but since the situation fits both of us, you can't really use it on one of us without the other. Just because I pointed it out doesn't change much, really.

It does change a lot, at least in my opinion. Bringing stuff up that applies to you and someone else as a reason why the other person probably isn't scum is a nice way for scum to make WIFOMy defensive arguments without getting WIFOM called.

Finally, I apparently got a lot of town cred for accidentally pointing out that I have no night activity when I was prodded. Everyone seems to have forgotten about that.

If you get points for that, Valern gets way more. From his first post:

Why was I prodded? -.-

Less than 24 hours after day 1 had started. Is it possible he hadn't posted in the scum QT for awhile? Sure. I actually noticed this yesterday while I was re-reading all of Valern's posts, and it was one of things that made me think he probably wasn't scum. You could easily have noticed that both Valern and Trendall claimed to have been prodded right after the game started, looked at the rules, figured out what it meant, and posted your claim to have been prodded in order to capitalize on that reason. Otherwise, I'm really not sure why you posted to inform us that you had been prodded during day 2, but not during day 1.

[ICEninja]

Weird, I just noticed that I never pointed out that I was prodded after day 1 started. I thought I had pointed it out. Turns out I PMed the question to Fenhl asking why I was prodded instead of posting it in-game. I'm pretty sure it's against the rules for me to confirm this, though.

And since Valern asked that, that right there is good enough reason for me to think he's town.

And yes, I was horribly inactive during days 2 and 3. To Eastern Orthodox Christians, Pascha (Easter) time is the busiest of the year. Notice that I purposely didn't /in any other games until several days after Eater was over. I have since picked up my activity and /inned as a hydra with Yoshi.

However, you're right. Valern was prodded, and probably hadn't talked in a QT. He's town. You're the last scum left.

Vote RangeroftheNorth

Pity there's no chance Valern will see the light, so looks like you win scum. Well played, going without suspicion for so long.

Valern, your reads sucked this game.

Sorry, town.

[RangeroftheNorth]

That's actually a pretty good strategy. You see I'm not likely to be convinced Valern is scum, so you decide to convince Valern that I'm scum. I'm convinced enough, and if Valern is scum, he's already won anyway.

Vote: ICEninja