I think I'll vote you in all the games.
OPEN 310 - Medical Mafia - TOWN WIN
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Hoppster wrote:
@ moratorium:
Moratorium wrote:
e. N (assuming we're thinking along the same lines)
What lines were you thinking along (wait until jilynne has answered her question, ta)?
Not sure why you need her to go first, so....
There was a point where Quilford was the only person who'd yet to confirm according to the tally, and some mention of the nurse PM needing to be resent and the recipient needing to reconfirm. You could infer that Quilford was the one the nurse PM was being sent to based on that, but you could just as easily infer that the mod didn't make it obvious by way of the tally who the recipient was. So I think it's a null tell.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Quilford wrote:Hoppster wrote:Scum are DeityKabuto and jilynne (failing that, Moratorium).
Discuss.
You're taking this from the way they sheeped your instructions (ie no questioning etc etc), I assume?
Leading the witness.
Which bothers me because earlier...
Hoppster wrote:
e. Y/N - Do you agree that Quilford's pre-game shenanigans suggest he is likely town?
...Kermit made a point of attempting to clear Quilford, and now Quilford seems to be returning the favor by giving Hoppster an out.
I'd like to hear Kermit's reasoning. I'd also like to hear Kermit's original thoughts as to why Quilford is town.
Newman and chkflip, what's your opinion of post #87?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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chkflip wrote:I didn't vote Hopps because, as much as I don't like the ideas, they're not telling in and of themselves.
Also, I agree that it won't help discussion or eliminate doctors if we are to protect the same person; however, I still don't feel hypo-claiming is our best avenue.
Though I will say that, at first glance, I thought you meant hypothetically claiming people and not calling our protects before we protect anyone. This in mind, though, I still feel the same way. Claiming our targets ahead of time isjust as badbecause scum can use that information to their advantage much more than town can.
Either Hello and DK are on the same team (and hate it) or they just hate eachother. My bet is the latter.
Mora, it seems like a pretty far out claim for page four... but I've seen people do it (and be right) before, so I'm uncertain. Why do you ask me in particular?
So originally, I asked you because I felt I had a loose town read on you, and wanted to hear more. But then you respond with this...
5 consecutive wishy-washy statements. Might be A, but could be B. I like this, however I like that. This in mind, though. Either A or B. Seems odd but I'm uncertain. You don't want to be pinned down on any opinion whatsoever.
So thanks for messing up my town read, I guess. :/Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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HellloooNewman wrote:Amrun wrote:They don't know our sanities any more than we do.
So, no, your explanation makes no sense to me.
It makes sense to me. Think of it this way. Say, the scum want to frame somebody (say Player A) as the Quack Doctor. They know that Player A is targeting Player B. They kill Player B. The chances are in their favor that they will kill someone that was NOT targeted by the real Quack Doc (simple probability).
Player B dies from the scum kill, and Player C dies from the REAL Quack Doc. Through speculation, they push their agenda that Player A MUST be the Quack Doc, and Player C MUST have been the scum kill (when it is in fact the opposite).
The next night, Player A thinks he is the Quack Doc (which he is not) and he doesn't use his protect (thereby making scum kills easier). And whoever targeted Player C doesn't realize that they are the real Quack Doc, so he protects again, leading to a kill.
Granted, this is a best case scenario for the scum, but still quite possible.
Please explain at least one scenario where town could discern between a Quack kill and a Scum kill. Without one, your logic breaks down.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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I've been thinking about this debate ongoing in the past few pages between HN and Amrun.
A potential alternative, where we avoid all this "mislynch and we might lose" business, and we can avoid the entire hypo-claim conversation. We ignore the fact that we have 7 flavors of doctor, no one targets anyone, and we play the game as 7 vanilla townies vs. 2 scum.
Basically, this is posing a question: which is stronger? 7 varied flavors of Doctor, or 7 Vanilla townies? Looking at the 7 doctor roles, there's a possibility of 0-4 kills, and a possibility of 0-4 saves. Does that make them equal to 7 vanilla, with the 7 vanilla being less of a knife's edge strategy than 7 doctors?
My personal opinion is that if we are very confident about who we are lynching, we can try the hypo-claim route (Either the original hypo-claim idea, or the 'pairing' idea later proposed). If, however, we only arrive at a lynch after a long deliberation and some difficulty, we can fall back on simply not issuing any doctor orders, to ensure we don't screw ourselves with one bad day.
The variance of this game is tweaked way high.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Hoppster wrote:Amrun wrote:Plus I don't think 2v7 mountainous odds are good either.
I think I read that 2:10 is balanced. :/
Confirmed on the Wiki.
So the assumption appears to be that 7 flavors of Doctor allows for a lot more information gathering over time than 7 vanilla townies.
Hoppster wrote:
I think I'm probably confident enough at this stage to say that the 2 scum are in:
{Jilynne, tim_hill, DeityKabuto, Moratorium}
Not sure how I'm supposed to address the fact that you think I'm... the second worst townie? Thank you? I'm wierded out by this, it's like a reverse backhanded compliment.
PR:
DK wrote:
I don't have an opinion, I'll just go along with the group.
Actually, I do, but it involves Hello dying.
Case? Anything outside of recent Ad Hominem back and forth? Because that's all you seem to be pushing.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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IceGuy wrote:I currently have you as my top scumread, simply because I'm pretty sure that at least one scum player was on the early DK wagon, and the other players on the wagon appear towny.
I voted for DK first, in post #4 of this game, as an obvious RVS vote. So I'm not sure how you are attributing me to a "wagon". I also ended up having to unvote 4 hours and 34 minutes later, in post #21 (again, page 1 Day 1, literally the morning of game start) because everyone piled on behind me.
I'm fine with discussing your "scumread", and would in fact encourage it based on the lack of scumhunting in this game, but I'd like to hear something from you with a little more substance than the wagon I wasn't on, or my "appearance".Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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jilynne1991 wrote:
let's say mafia killed someone someone else was supposed to be protecting, and therefore nothing would happen to the player (s)he was supposed to be protecting, therefore, they have easily found a way to make two scum.
Not following you.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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The votecount is at the top of the page. No votes on tim. Looked through the game regardless just in case it was a mod mistake, it wasn't.
Four votes on tim this page. Amrun, Hoppster, IceGuy, DK. DK thought he hammered because Amrun voted twice this page to correct a badly formatted vote.
DK attempted to hammer a vote before anyone came up with the agreed-upon hypo-doc strategy. He also went from this:
DK wrote:
Btw lol, my gut is saying tim_hill is not the best lynch for today o_0
to this:
DK wrote:
HAMMER-BAMMER
Within three posts. So all I see there is opportunism.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Amrun: Contribution to this game is very high so is paying a lot of attention to this game for one reason or another. Scumhunting, asking a lot of direct questions. I don't agree with the current wagon, but his conversation with tim_hill1990 has more the tone of attempting to figure him out than trying to push the wagon for others. Leaning town.
HellloooNewman: So far his contribution to the game has been two things: A persistant expression of frustration about DK's playstyle, and a discussion with Amrun on the validity of hypodoc'ing. No scumhunting or attempts to divert from those two topics so far. Leaning scum.
tim_hill1990: Early lurk, became active over time as he picked up a wagon, vast majority of his posting has become self-defensive in nature. That trend in and of itself is not inherently town/scum, but his answers to voters seem satisfactory to me so far. Defensive posting taking away from hearing his opinions of others, would like to hear more scumhunting from this player. Leaning town.
DeityKabuto: Aware of the DK VI meta, so having to look at this player a bit differently in that evaluating language or scumhunting trends or other subtle commonalities that display even a small amount of sophistication don't apply. Attempts to quick-hammer a vote. Also attempts to do this before anyone has settled on the hypodoc'ing tactic. Scum.
IceGuy/chkflip: Initially chkflip is very committed to not being pinned on an opinion, which set off big scum flags for me. IceGuy takes over, posts views on all players, commits to hypodoc, is scumhunting and asking players for reads, is careful with voting to ensure no quick hammers. So the two players in this slot come across as opposite ends of the town/scum spectrum. I can't just average them out and say "Null", I feel like I simply need to hear more from Iceguy at this point.
jilynne1991: Every post, especially early on, is either an apology, an expression of confusion, or mild reactions to other people. No votes in any direction this game yet, nothing that I could pin down as aggressive scumhunting. No effort? Signature says 13 and 10+ games, could be a lie to stay low content, but could be the truth and explain it. Leaning scum.
Hoppster: RVS-Killer post, which at first felt like a good post that might get us somewhere, but seemed to lose steam quickly. Legitimate hypodoc strategy emerges from the post. Post caused incredibly fast L-1, but I don't feel it was purposeful by Hoppster. Some setup speculation, some scumhunting, I don't feel a lot of deceit from his contributions. Some odd interaction with Quilford. Leaning town.
Quilford: Low content, really not contributing enough to this game to pin him on a read. Null.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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I would describe tim_hill1990's play as basic. You are asking him nuanced questions about specific events and particular phrases, he is responding with "Well maybe it's because he is scum"-type responses. It doesn't say deceit to me, it says simpletown. When I read his counterarguments to you, it sounds like he's reading out of a Mafia for Dummies book.
tim wrote:
And what if the people you are cooperating with are scum?
tim wrote:
Because DK is the kind of player we would mislynch, he's impossible to make sense of.
tim wrote:
Outting people as town is great, except no one is ever confirmed until they flip.
It's all just... strategic pablum. It's a WIFOM view, sure. But that's my read.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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As for the suspicion and townread themselves, I think they are both wrong.
As for the contrast, I'd like to hear the response to this:
Amrun wrote:
Let me get this straight: we should lynch Hoppster because it would be really bad for town if he was scum because of his apparent pro-town behavior, but DK is unreadable so we should not lynch him?
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So summary of the cases on the top three (tied) vote getters as far as I can tell.
DK -> Mishammered, attempting to avoid hypodoc'ing.
Jillynne -> Fence-sitting, "contributing very little (ISO) and she seems to be trying very hard to remain polite and impassive in her posting style."
tim_hill1991 -> Initial sheeping (followed by long Amrun-tim back and forth that makes summarizing the case difficult), did not initially give reads when prompted.
Questions for the wagoneers:
DeityKabuto, what is your opinion of hypodoc'ing, and why did you attempt to hammer a vote before anyone had the chance to settle on a strategy?
Jillynne, give me your top three scum reads, why they are scum reads, and explain why you have yet to cast a vote so far this game.
Tim_Hill1991, why did you initially refuse to give reads on players?
And one more:
Amrun, please give me a summary of your case on Tim_Hill1991, what would you consider to be the most salient points raised in your back and forth conversation with him that convince you of his scummyness.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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DeityKabuto wrote:Newman, and Moratorium, off my wagon.
You don't want a mislynch today or do you?
My wagon is not the best choice, if you'd ask me, and this is coming from an outsider's perspective.
Why did you attempt to hammer a vote before anyone had the chance to settle on a strategy?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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So I asked the three wagoneers a question each.
DK pleaded ignorance to what hypoclaiming was, despite the discussion. Not an acceptable answer.
tim_hill said he doesn't like being told what to do. I can accept that answer, a few people were reluctant to hoppster's initial RVS-killer post, for example.
jillynne has yet to answer my question. Top 3 scum reads please, and why.
And as for Amrun's case on tim, I'll at least accept the case that it is thought through, and can see why you think it is valid. I still can't shake the feeling that the two of you aren't operating on the same plane. tim is more new player than scum, for me.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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DeityKabuto wrote:Quilford wrote:whoops double post
DK GO READ THE SETUP INFORMATION RIGHT NOW
Lol? Explain.
You know ordering me around, I will mess up.
Do you understand that a mass claim will result in 9 Doctor claims? Answer please, this is important.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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...rainy day at the hospital. All staff members sit at large conference room...
DK: "Well, I've called this staff meeting because there's word of some mafia-type people who appear to have infiltrated us. I want everyone to declare their true nature. I'll start. I'm a doctor!"
Everyone else: "I'm a doctor, too!", "me too!", "same here", "yup, doctor", "I'm a doctor man!", "Doctor!", "Doctor here", "yep, same with me! It's an amazing coincidence!"...
...everyone stares across the table at each other...Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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DeityKabuto wrote:Amrun wrote:YOU CLAIMED PARANOID DOCTOR
THAT IS LITERALLY NOT POSSIBLE
Fine, it didn't say Paranoid Doctor in my role PM but I am assuming I am paranoid since on the topic is has the list of roles and it says Paranoid is the role blocker. SO IT IS POSSIBLE.
So there's going to be this period of time right after everyone reads that sentence, this little delay of a few seconds, before everyone goes... "WHAT?!??!"
I want to give that little delay a new name. I want to call it "Being Kabuto'ed". I think we're all being Kabuto'ed right now.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Amrun wrote:Okay, that is helpful.
FIRST:
DID EVERYONE FOLLOW THE HYPODOCING PLAN
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
Yes, Hoppster was my target.
Hoppster wrote:
Everybody needs to makr a post in which they either CC Newman or don't.
No CC from me.
I don't counterclaim.
Hoppster wrote:
a) No Action at night (to make it 5:1 mountainous)
I'm not sure whether that's town favoured or not.
I actually suspect it may be scum-favoured, but thought I'd put it out there.
No, this assumes no-lynch today.
There are six of us now. If we lynch today, properly, we win. If we mislynch, we'll be 4:1 overnight. NK, mislynch tomorrow, NK and we lose. So making this a mountainous means we have two opportunities to pick the correct target. Do you feel like two of the six remaining players stand out so boldly as scum that we can win this way?
Hoppster wrote:
b) All collectively agree DURING THE DAY on a scummy player that we ALL TARGET at night.
I'll elaborate on B later today (but probably not for a good 8+ hours) as I'm off on a day trip to Sheffield today and it's something I'd much prefer to type on a computer keyboard over a phone keyboard. (You may get it earlier if I get really bored.)
I'm skeptical, but I'd need to see your elaboration, I'm concerned that there might be situations where all this does is protect the scummy target while allowing him to fulfill his nightkill.
Hoppster wrote:
c) Continue with hypo-doc'ing
This feels very much like B, but with even more possibility of mishandling or misreading the situation, pre and post.
====
More from Tim_Hill1990 please, and please don't rush a lynch while I'm gone.
V/LA until Sunday night, going out of town to celebrate my anniversaryMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Is anyone here good with critical thinking? Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens and all that stuff from college? Because I get the feeling we can deduce a few things a few things by using truth tables and inference rules, but I've never been very good at classical logic (took one class in first year like.... 13 years ago)Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Hoppster wrote:Moratorium wrote:Hoppster wrote:
Moratorium: Is there any reason you ignored my super-awesome post yesterday?
Not sure what this means, are you looking for validation?
I just made a super-awesome post pointing out how obvious scum jilynne was, and you didn't comment on it at all.
I'm curious.
Did you not believe I was correct? Why didn't you try to correct me?
This was my read on jilynne1990 earlier in the game:
Moratorium wrote:
jilynne1991: Every post, especially early on, is either an apology, an expression of confusion, or mild reactions to other people. No votes in any direction this game yet, nothing that I could pin down as aggressive scumhunting. No effort? Signature says 13 and 10+ games, could be a lie to stay low content, but could be the truth and explain it. Leaning scum.
So what kind of comment were you looking for? Which is why I asked, were you looking for some sort of validation? Is it important to you that we be made aware that you were lining up a case on someone that ended up flipping scum?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Hoppster wrote:Moratorium wrote:Moratorium wrote:
jilynne1991: Every post, especially early on, is either an apology, an expression of confusion, or mild reactions to other people. No votes in any direction this game yet, nothing that I could pin down as aggressive scumhunting. No effort? Signature says 13 and 10+ games, could be a lie to stay low content, but could be the truth and explain it. Leaning scum.
So what kind of comment were you looking for? Which is why I asked, were you looking for some sort of validation? Is it important to you that we be made aware that you were lining up a case on someone that ended up flipping scum?
No, you're missing the point completely.
No, I'm really not.
Hoppster wrote:
I had a case on jilynne. I was clearly convinced jilynne was scum.
However, you continued to push DK. Is it not of relevance to address why you felt my case on jilynne was inadequate to convince you immediately? Or to even acknowledge my post (obviously I'm not talking about acknowledging itnow, but I mean at the time)?
You put forth a post, #327, which basically sheeped things that I'd said about jilynne a week previous ("fence-sitting"). The post immediately preceding yours, #326, I'm asking for scumreads from Jilynne because my main beef was her lack of effort and no votes in any direction. Are you somehow insulted that I didn't deem your particular post rehashing the same ideas necessary to respond to? I don't get it.
So again, are you looking to have your opinions publicly validated, or are you trying to stir attention to the fact that you had a case on flipped scum?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Amrun wrote:Okay, so that's out? Should we hypodoc again then?
Two people died last night. One of those may be, but isn't necessarily, the scum nightkill. Meaning there's a potential of three killing roles still remaining.
Mislynch makes 4:1, unlucky hypodoc night, immediate loss.
With mountainous we're at least guaranteed another lynch attempt. Unless we have a specific hypodoc strategy in mind that is +EV (which was why I was looking for the logical exercises Hoppster was putting together, and wouldn't mind him finishing), I'd rather we mountainous.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Not sure yet. Right now, Hoppster and I are having an interesting conversation, I'd like to see where that goes. And I'd like some elaboration from Quilford on his Tim read changing.
I think Tim is town by read, and Newman is town by lack of counterclaim, so i'm looking at you three right now.
The tone of your posting is changing, Amrun, are you in the same boat as Quilford and leaning away from Tim?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Hoppster wrote:Moratorium wrote:So again, are you looking to have your opinions publicly validated, or are you trying to stir attention to the fact that you had a case on flipped scum?
^ This undoubtedly carries a tone of suspicion...
I agree. You're also not directly answering the actual question I'm asking you. Second time, now.
Hoppster wrote:
(I'm not trying to get town-cred, but that's irrelevant because you clearly think I am), however, why is it then that you did not bat an eyelid at this post from Quilford?Quilford wrote:WHAT DID I TELL YOU ABOUT JILYNNE BEING SCUM
WHAT DID I TELL YOU
in other news: fuck yeah
So your actual answer to "Are you trying to make sure we are aware of your vote?" is "Well, what about that guy?". I'm willing to bet if I was to ask Quilford "Are you trying to make sure we are aware of your vote?", I'd get something like "FUCK YES I AM BITCH, CHECK OUT MY VOTEZ MOFO, JILYNNE IS ALL ME BROSEPH". Not deception and reflective answering-questions-with-other-questions that I'm getting out of you.
I'm also really curious about the "town-cred, but that's irrelevant because you clearly think I am" comment, because I'd characterize my questioning of you as... I dunno... tame? Passive-aggressive? Less than full-tilt scumhunting? So your reaction seems a bit out of proportion to me so far.
And my direct answer to your question regarding eyelid batting: Because it fits his MO. It doesn't fit yours. your meta this game is long-winded setup analysis and plan proposal man. The sudden "Hey guyz i voted right last time" comment stuck out on you much more brightly than it does on Quilford.
So again, are you looking to have your opinions publicly validated, or are you trying to stir attention to the fact that you had a case on flipped scum?
Hoppster wrote:
I think Amrun could be town based on jilynne's very first post, as crazy as that sounds.
Leaning-town read on tim_hill today. Mehhh.
What is your read on Quilford and Moratorium?
Quilford wrote:Moratorium wrote:
And I'd like some elaboration from Quilford on his Tim read changing.
He just doesn't feel like scum going into damage control. And his arguments are good to the point where I'm almost persuaded to vote for Amrun.
Towniest-sounding thing you've said to date. But again, please elaborate. Give examples. I'd like to see your thought process, and your Content-to-Post ratio makes that difficult.
Has everyone declined to counterclaim Newman at this point?Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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Scum -> Town scale for me right now feels like:
Hoppster - Quilford - Amrun - TimHill - HelloNewman
But I wouldn't characterize that as much more than gut at the moment, hence the questions/requests I have out to Hoppster/Quilford so far. The only read I have that is stronger than gut would be on Newman.
To Amrun:
My read says Tim is still just more newbtown than scummy, with answers given that seem plain and lack deceit, and I feel that your characterizing my disagreeing with your case as "splitting hairs" might be an indication that you're not fully committed to that case. Hence the tone remark. So I'll ask you directly, has your opinion of TimHill changed in the last few pages, or are you still in "LET'S LYNCH TIM KTHX" mode... and please don't respond again with "what makes you think etc etc..." I'd like a direct answer.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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Can't say I was trying to force you into anything, I'm asking questions. You are adverse to directly answering questions, which I don't like.
All your reads are "well I think you are either town or scum", even the one you voted on. Your "justification" is pretty laughable. Don't like it.
Lots of "woe is me, no one is listening to me, won't bother explaining my thought process" in your posts. Don't like that.
It looks like a pre-emptive OMGUS vote once you saw my reads laid out. Don't like that.
vote HoppsterMen's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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Because having a practically confirmed townie in threeway lylo increases odds significantly for a town win.
On Amrun's case, I feel it's all pretty vague, describing normal scumhunting activity (giving reads, not stating anyone as absolute town on D1, asking for scumreads of other players), attempting to single me for "gamebreaking" which seems odd in this game considering what happened (my formal logic request vs. Hoppster's RVS-Killer post), and WIFOM arguments ("A lot of things in my Moratorium 'case' could go either way and I realize that.").
I can't decide whether it's scum-Amrun attempting to take advantage of Hoppster <-> Moratorium, or whether it's town-frustrated-Amrun trying to squeeze blood out of a rock.Men's evil manners live in brass; their virtues we write in water.-
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Moratorium Mafia Scum
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